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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six CO
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six CON-held London remain seats
For the last couple of Sundays the former YouGov president, Peter Kellner, has published a total of six constituency polls as part of an effort to examine potential tactical voting possibilities in seats which voted Remain at the referendum. So far all of them have been in London but next weekend we are promised a selection from elsewhere in England.
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Third - like Corbyn!
Corbyn is like COBOL's ALTER statement... to d*mn stupid to be useful
There was also a YouGov Wales only poll - so not relevant for your graph. That had a 4.5% swing implying a 11.5% national lead if same swing across whole UK.
https://imgur.com/NC4b5do
- the BXP vote has collapsed and its gone to the Tories
- the LibDem vote dropped by a quarter when the election was called (mostly to the benefit of Labour) but has been pretty stable since
- after a positive start, Labour has found itself marooned around 30%
So... let's assume for a second that the LDs are up 12.5% in Remainiac London* (i.e. about five points more than in the country as a whole), the Tories are down 5% (because it's Remainia), and the Labour Party is down 7.5%.
That means the LDs win the following seats:
Richmond Park (duh)
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
That is literally it. A big London Remainia surge nets them two seats.
* Places which voted more than 60% Remain
That gives the LDs Kensington, Putney, Vauxhall and Wimbledon. (As well as Sutton, which isn't in Remainia.)
The next few polls will be critical for your graph!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
(Incidentally, why is Vanilla automatically inserting an extra line for each new paragraph?)
All my (limited) forecasting time is spent talking about LD seats on PB.com
Hmmm ...
And meanwhile 1 million mostly youngsters have registered to vote in the last week:
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-more-than-a-million-register-to-vote-as-deadline-looms-11870400
I'm not sure how much the Chief Rabbi's intervention will hurt Labour. According to your dad there was a link to the antisemitism scandal a couple of years ago and Labour's drop in the polls. However, that may now be factored in and there seem to be a lot of people pointing out the inconsistencies over this (two Conservative candidates suspended in just the past week for antisemitism).
But to the person posting below about Labour hitting 35% ... well I would love it to be true providing the yellows hold up in Remainia. But, really?
@rcs1000 may be right that this only wins a handful of seats, but gets many strong second places. This shouldn't scare Labour too much, more gritty urban areas will vote Lab.
Lab on say 32% and LD on 15% with Tories on 40% could work out very nicely if those votes are in the right places. Both Lab and LD need to concentrate their fire on the real enemy, they are not often chasing the same votes.
We might get a yougov today, maybe a Comres and we are overdue a kantar!
People simply do not trust Boris Johnson and the Tories to tell the truth, I honestly wonder if "get Brexit done" is backfiring for this very reason.
Ouch
In 2017, as Corbyn's ratings improved, those sceptics came home. This time they are wont to do so but might faced with Johnson. But anything that makes them less able to do that - such as an intervention that gets across the very real fear and pain a majority of Jews feel at the idea of making Corbyn PM, makes them voting Labour rather than Lib Dem, maybe even Green or possibly, in some cases even Tory, or not all, less likely.
Labour people only have themselves to blame for this. They know the reasons a lot of decent Labour-leaning people think Corbyn and his politics are a disgusting disgrace, but might vote for the party anyway, and that they think that, and have been pushing the idea 'its us or the Tories' to try and guilt trip them back. That they ever asked people to vote for a man like Corbyn will be to their eternal shame.
The polling on trust is pretty much neck and neck
We will see how the polling goes - but right now Johnson's numbers are trending down and Corbyn's are trending up. In many ways they're a much better predictor of voting behaviour. They reach close to parity as before - then we're headed for a Hung Parliament.
The right simply do not understand Corbyn's appeal - it's why they have utterly failed once again to put people off voting for him.
He’s pretty bad already
Corbyn has very limited appeal, that's why his ratings are in the pan
Are you comfortable with the fact that a significant minority group is that scared of your preferred party winning the election?
That Welsh poll, the gap is now 5 points, that's almost within the MOE.
We will see how it goes - but I can't think dodging debates is going to help out Johnson's supposed appeal to the public. For all his faults, Corbyn doesn't seem to mind scrutiny - and that to me is very telling.
Senior Rabbi Baroness Julia Neuberger will give her view on #KayBurley at #Breakfast at 7.30am.
📺 Channel 501
📱 Watch live: https://t.co/cMHO7fsDYJ https://t.co/QmUiP8Rg7x
Oh dear, what a shame
I guess Roger and the Horse thing will be along to trash her in 5, 4, 3......
Both Lab and LD need to go strongly on the issue, and obviously the Greens. It is a positive issue for these parties, and positivity is a good motivator.
I have said for many months (albeit not here), that there are a decent chunk of voters (Labour Leavers fall into this category) who care far more about other issues.
Slowly the election is turning away from Brexit - and Johnson and the Tories know it.
He is behind in Wales, behind Boris in labours heartland. Hes a dud.
Nobody is happy about the anti-Semitism issue in Labour, but I think it's a mistake for religious leaders to insert themselves into the political debate, especially during an election. It demeans their office and opens them up to accusations of bias.
Therefore, such things as their leader and his general secretary being a pair of racists who have made it perfectly acceptable to use the Labour Party apparatus to hound Jews doesn't matter because they are Labour. Meanwhile Boris Johnson making racist remarks about - well, just about everyone, tbf - is seriously wrong because he's Boris Johnson.
This simple view of the world also explains why they don't understand the intense dislike they get from everyone else. They are good so why are they hated? It does not seem to occur to them that perhaps the reason is that it's because they are not good.
So in answer to your question, it won't bother them because they genuinely don't believe it to be true, regardless of awkward things like actual evidence. Again, we have seen this on the last two threads.
I think that the British legacy in the Middle East is so bad that we should steer clear of any further involvement.
And, no. But there are many many instances of systemic and ad hoc racism in this country at the moment, mostly I have to say fuelled since the bloody Brexit brought nastiness to the fore. Antisemitism is but one example. The Conservatives have no moral ground on this.
I understand, of course, why Jewish communities are sensitive to persecution but unless they wish to stoke the very thing they fear they need to speak about ALL forms of racism. For example, Islamophobia.
Anyway, moving on ...
I recognise there’s a visceral desire amongst some to stop all carbon emissions tomorrow, or by 2025 if you’re XR, but that isn’t possible without totally collapsing the economy and causing hundreds of thousands of deaths from poverty, malnutrition and worklessness. It would also lead to the collapse of democratic Government.
A fate even worse than some extreme climate events, assuming you’re not a misanthrope. It would also set back the private enterprise and technological innovations - and tax revenues to subsidise them - that we’re relying on to develop sustainable energy solutions.
Again, Labour has rhetoric not answers.
It's the pathway to the very thing they oppose.
No. 1 lesson I was taught by my Jewish friends when I was in Israel: 'we are not special. That's how it all began.'
p.s. By the way, I'm sure everyone knows this, but there are myriad factions within 'Judaism' and some of them virtually at war with one another.
It won’t, but if we’re going to talk about the campaign politics of this then its main effect will be to deny a 24-hr news cycle to something else, like WASPI women.
So it’s another day of campaign momentum lost to Labour.
That said they do seem to have planned to go today with how ghastly the British empire was, which I’m sure animates the momentum base but I can’t see is decisive for firming up voting support like bungs are.
That’s it.
There are far far bigger figures in the anti-racism camp in Labour than Corbyn, who’ve actually led a fight, and more effective ones too.
Vanilla need a slap.
I expect much of what I post on here is intellectually low grade. The one on Jewish communities isn't. It's subtle but really important.
Fuck ‘em.
Not condoning stiring up racism, but at least Johnson supported the right to choose to wear whichever clothing you wanted.
Is he standing for public office?
We are going to see all kinds of surprising results. The late swing in this election may not be the willingness of people publicly to say they'll vote for Corbyn or Swinson. But the temptation to locally tactically vote outside of the main poll headline can already be felt if you dig into reportage from across the country and the number of don't knows and the general plague on all your houses vibe.
Another badly hung parliament.
Perhaps it's because she's patently not up to the task of wrenching the second party mantle from the Commies. Which I dare say is something that is wanted by as much as two thirds of the electorate.