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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could be crucial and need to be looked at
We’ve talked a lot on PB about the 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB but that is not the whole picture as ex-Labour staffer blogger Hopi Sen notes. In an interesting post he highlights a significant group of voters who hardly get any attention to – the 2010 LDs who now say don’t know. He writes:-
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The idea that people who are in the process of switching from one coalition party to another would identify as Don't-Know in the meantime is my bit of additional speculation on top of that, but I think it makes sense: If I'm right that supporters of governing parties X and Y are more likely to go Don't-Know in mid-term than supporters of opposition party Z, that presumably applies to people who will end up voting for Y even if they originally voted for X.
My guess is that the Lib Dems will score high teens at the next election, down a significant chunk but not the complete collapse indicated at the moment. Most of the improvement will come from this segment but I would expect some to come from those saying Labour in the current polls.
As for those in marginals, I suspect it is easier to vent frustration at the compromises of real power when you have a clear contender that is not a part of the government. So Mr Cheesed off in a Con/Lab marginal is more likely to express himself by saying he is supporting Labour than those in non marginals where the alternative is less obvious.
Logically, a DK is a better LD prospect than someone saying they'll vote Labour. I suspect quite a few will stay with what they know. And quite a few of them will be anti-Tories who dislike the Coalition, but who hate the idea of the Conservatives governing alone more. Either way, though, Labour won't mind. It's LD to Tory switchers they worry about - which is why the Tory rightwards move suits them fine.
The inhumanity of the Welsh Language police, whilst a Labour council sits on its hands.
"Vulnerable autistic children have been banned from using a school canteen because they do not speak Welsh.
The youngsters have to eat in a small two-classroom building on the site of newly-created Ysgol Gymraeg Bro Teyrnon in Newport.
Last year, when the school was the English language Brynglas Primary, the children were able to eat in the canteen.
But since the September, the unit for autistic children has been separated from the new Welsh-language school and the children in the unit receive food from the canteen delivered to their classroom.
In an email, Newport Council’s education chief James Harris said: “The pupils will be eating in the base initially as the Welsh school will be using Welsh language only and the management team and teachers at Maes Ebbw feel it will be confusing for the pupils.”
“Arrangements are being made to improve the facilities so the children can eat outside when it is warm enough,” Mr Harris wrote."
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/autistic-children-banned-school-canteen-6335413
Of greater interest is the changes that Osborne is apparently having to make to the patent box. If you have recovered from the disasters of the weekend I would be genuinely interested to read your comments on that.
we get this red herring repeatedly. If the 6% 2010LDs had stuck with Labour, Brown would be PM. How's that efficient ?
There is a segment of the voting populus who don't make up their minds until just before or at the election. These are the don't knows. Currently about 24% of 2010 ld, 9% of 2010 l & 17 % of 2010 c.
In 2010 there was the cleggasm, and my hypothesis is that a greater proportion of the don't knows voted ld as a result. The current voting % of don't knows are just a consequence of the cleggasm.
This suggests that they are proper floating voters, able to be captured by any party.
This sounds reasonable, but is there any evidence for this hypothesis?
It would be very interesting if some people actually did that.
Or more likely, interesting if nobody did, in which case campaign funds can be diverted elsewhere.
Iran deal could be bad for Salmond and the Indyref if it sticks.
"Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have both warned over recent days that crude prices will slide in 2014, much to the alarm of states that depend on oil to make ends meet."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10471548/Iran-sanctions-deal-to-unleash-oil-supply-but-Saudi-wild-card-looms.html
(1) APR isn't a reliable indicator of cost for two-week loans
(2) Why is there a demand for payday loans
Item (2) is what should be addressed.
Just allocate 50% back to the LDs, 0% to anyone else and leave it at that.
Is it time for a more nuanced approach from ICM, to recognise the consequences of the political realignment that the LDs chose in 2010?
Rhetorical swings wont work especially from Cameroons who all too regularly show how they really feel about UKIP voters.
Labour Party's property firm cashed in on cheap loans from Co-op
Opposition’s property portfolio benefited from low rates of interest offered by the bank
Labour's property portfolio, including Ed Balls’s constituency buildings, have benefited from cheap loans from the Co-operative Bank, the Telegraph can disclose.
A commercial mortgage broker who inspected the accounts said: “This is a ratbag collection of second and third-rate properties, and any of my clients would not get money at that rate of interest out of any bank on the face of the planet.
“They are paying half the rate of interest that the rest of us would pay. This is not a genuine arm’s-length transaction – it’s far too cosy. Poor little Co-op bondholders who are taking a haircut should be asking why they are doing it.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10471476/Labour-Party-cashed-in-on-cheap-loans-from-Co-op.html
Assuming Iran can get back up to 2.6m barrels of export capacity in the next 12 months - which is not a given - then it would be not unreasonable to assume that either (a) Saudi Arabia has to cut production, or (b) that oil prices dip back below $100. (Of course, as our imported gas is priced off oil, this will be good for electricity prices...)
Anyone want to guess how long before the agreement is exposed as a sham ?
Two other moves I think might make a difference:
1) A registry to prevent people getting loans out from multiple companies (i.e. trying to pay off a loan with one company by getting a loan from another, but only for short-term payday loans).
2) Strictly enforce a once-only rollover of any loans.
The problem is that *any* move might create a demand into which totally unregulated loan sharks may move, causing further harm.
Clare's Law to be rolled out across England and Wales:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25077115
I cannot see why this is limited to women. Whilst most domestic violence is man-on-woman, there's a very large minority that's woman-on-man, and of course it happens in gay couples as well.
If it's deemed acceptable for women with a new boyfriend to check his police record then it's indefensible not to extend that same right to straight men and gay people of both genders.
I would also note that, despite Mr Netanyahu's rhetoric, the Israeli stock exchange was up very sharply yesterday, and is up again today. Israeli 'money' seems to think this is a pretty good deal.
Bearing in mind that Wonga, for example, appear to be interested in getting their money back, they only lend to people who can pay.
Anecdote alert: Our children, and their colleagues in the 20-25 age bracket might well be users of these services. They're spending everything they earn, running out of money before payday, and six months later getting a better paid job. Some of them will earn good money soon, and they're spending it now. We're not sure this is wise, but they have to learn somewhere. If these people are typical payday loan customers, why not leave them alone. There are more important things to be getting on with.
As for the Patent Box, I am not sure if anything concrete has actually happened. This is our latest report on it from about a month ago:
http://www.iam-magazine.com/blog/detail.aspx?g=745c03d0-e1f3-45d6-bd62-df14617338b2&q
Yes, it would be interesting to have some in-depth figures on payday loan customers so that we can see exactly how 'troubled' they are.
I do suspect part of the problem is that a lot of these people previously relied on bank overdrafts - where the effective APR was probably higher than what Wonga charge -but since the tightening up of bank overdraft laws they have moved to payday companies. The issue is now more in the open, even if it is not any worse.
More interestingly, as far as I can tell this kind of illness seems to affect England's cricketers more than those from anywhere else. Are we better at identifying it?
Before he retired, my dad employed semi-skilled workers in the building and demolition industries. Ideally, he preferred paying them monthly directly into bank accounts. Second best was cheques. However, well over half the men wanted paying by cash weekly, and quite a few did not even have bank accounts. The reason being that if they got paid monthly, they would run out of money before the next payday. If they got paid weekly, they would only have one or two lean days.
When they got paid, some would go straight to the local pub and drink all night.
It's a totally alien mindset to me.
One of my jobs when I was a kid was, every Thursday, totting up how many notes and coins were needed to make up all the pay packets.
Or wishful thinking?
The Tories are not as 'toxic' as the Lib Dems or UKIP......
The question is then are other countries willing to allow it to do so.
That question needs answering - everything else is merely delaying the problem.
As to the Israeli stock market I imagine it has the same short term outlook similar institutions have.
What Miliband is proposing wrt energy and land was very different. It's a shame you can't see the difference (although actually I think you do).
Warner looks an even bigger **** now.
Adam Mountford@tmsproducer36m
Andy Flower "Trotty has been suffering from a stress related condition for quite a while" #bbcsport #Ashes
Apart from all that , the only way the price of oil is going is up.
"Jonathan has been struggling with this condition for quite a while," added Flower.
"We have been on tour for about a month and he has had his ups and downs through that month and it is not directly related to that.
"I would also say players commenting to fellow professionals in the media is disrespectful and I think on this occasion he [Warner] has got that horribly wrong."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10471476/Labour-Party-cashed-in-on-cheap-loans-from-Co-op.html
So, when you say 'Iran is aiming to become a nuclear power', do you mean that the people of Iran would rather have nuclear weapons than bread? Or do you mean that a narrow coterie of well fed clerics would rather have a nuclear bomb? We have put in place a series of sanctions that have caused enormous hardship across Iran, and resulted in a moderate being elected. What greater success would you like?
The question is whether it is better to go for a carrot and stick approach - allowing a small loosening of the noose, in return for a halt to enrichment, the disassembling of centrifuges, putting the 20% enriched uranium under international control, and stopping work at the Arak plant.
Alternatively, you can say 'this is not enough!' (even though it is far more than the Pakistanis, the Indians and Israelis have done).
Now, it is possible that either (a) the clerics will get rid of Rouhani, or (b) this is all a ruse. But given how little we're giving up for six months, that seems a price worth paying.
What do you think we should do?
And, do you believe that if (say) a bunch of international countries demanded that we got rid of our nuclear weapons, that we should do it? Or do you think that external pressure would make you (and me) more nationalistic?
Great great player.
"Did Brezhnev do coke and rent boys ?"
George Monbiot said it should have been obvious Paul Flowers wasn't a real banker.
He bought his own coke.
I am willing to bet that - adjusted for inflation - it is below that level in five years time. I'm happy to go up to £100,000.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kevin-maguire-ed-milibands-crucial-2848502
I'm afraid it's one of those things falling in to the "events" category, a 10% drop in the price of oil is just one of those things nobody can control.
It does however show Salmond to be not so hot on economics or picking winners. First the finance sector crashes, then oil weakens now all we need is for the Whisky industry to have a crisis and it's the full set.
I can utterly understand why players burn out, it seems like an endless treadmill of matches and tours...
The current figures are of a different magnitude but not out of this world - 43% of 2010 Lib Dems are thinking of voting for Lab (33%) or Con (10%).
At the election the Lib Dems recovered from 12% in 2008 to 23% in 2010. They won't do as well this time but maybe half way there...
But the bizarre image of people who should know better cheerleading this 'agreement' brings my cynicism out.
Wasn't that the big problem in 1992? The media narrative was almost all anti-Tory (Kinnock this and Kinnock that) but the electorate who actually voted thought otherwise and indeed John Major of course achieved the highest vote for a party in the modern era, more than Blair ever achieved.
Cameron's basic problem is he can't manage a broad church by having enough red meat to throw to either right or centre to keep them all happy. Add in that he still hasn't got his head round how to appeal to the North and cities any more than Ed understands the South and countryside and you have a polarisation in politics. Currently this works in Labour's favour as they have a better national vote distribution, however as the South keeps growing this will decay and deferring boundary change just gives a warped picture, at some point the current boundaries will go.
Anyone who voted Lib Dem at the last election who is content with the coalition would surely tell pollsters they would vote the same way again.....
Therefore Lib Dem 'don't knows' are very unlikely to vote the same way again and unless they've had a Damascene conversion they're unlikely to vote Tory either
And no I don't have a solution to the problem and doubt there is one - there are too many mutually exclusive interests involved.
I was just reacting against the 'Cathy Ashton has saved the world, ra!, ra!, ra!'' stupidity from people who should know better.
Now if it turns out that Cathy Ashton has indeed saved the world then feel free to remind me in a few years and I will admit my mistake.
Whether the cheerleaders will admit their's if she hasn't saved the world is another matter.
Unite faces new seat-rigging allegations
The Unite union has been dragged back into the row over seat-rigging in Falkirk after it emerged the son of a prospective Labour MP was signed up to vote on the party's candidate choice despite living in Glasgow.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10471906/Unite-faces-new-seat-rigging-allegations.html
I'm not seeing anyone claiming this will provide peace and goodwill to all men forever, but it's a very big improvement on the status quo ante, which was that the Iranian people were getting screwed by sanctions and Iran was going full speed ahead with its nuclear program. I think that reflects well on the people who made it happen, including Catherine Ashton and John Kerry, who I had assumed was a complete useless twonk who only got the Syrian deal by screwing up the plan for war so badly, but I now think I may have under-estimated.
England players and commentators may have been a bit more subtle about it but in 2009 they were basically laughing at Mitchell Johnson. They weren't at the Gabba.
I like Warner's honesty. I like a bit of confrontation. It's much more inspiring that then usual PC, prosaic answers given by sportsmen. Compared to the stuff they say to eachother on pitch (heard through the stump mic's) it was nothing. England are whingeing.
Trott is a very good player but he does struggle against the short ball. Australia have exploited that, got him out cheaply and let him know they have his number. That's good cricket in my book.
The mental illness story is very sad but I hope Warner doesn't apologise. I like the spice in sport - makes it much more fun.
Miliband as PM would be distinctly dangerous for the country, whether Marxist or not.
Yet you still support him?