How could any business have him as a spokesperson after that interview. It would be commercial suicide.
Yes, how to explain the transformation of dashing RN pilot with Donny Osmond looks to seedy parasite in the space of a few years? Was it inevitable? Could things have been different if things had been different? Or was the Andrew as he became always there in the Andrew he once was? It's impossible to know. One can only speculate and there seems little point in that.
The randy andy moniker was neither a mistake nor without an understanding of his fancies. Hes just moved from 2nd in line and 'protected' to 8th in line and dispensable. The Epstein contact book and case will unmask a great many more untouchables.
I read that Charles is going to slimline things once he becomes King, with his siblings demoted to second-class royals.
And his only child to be the only other civil lister
He set out to thwart not just a No Deal Brexit but any Brexit at all. Worst Speaker in living memory.
Bercow championed parliament at the expense of the executive. Everyone accepts that this was his big consistent theme. I would expect a "worst Speaker in living memory" judgement only from those who consider parliament to have got too big for its boots. Surprised if that includes you. Wonder if there's a touch of the old Brexit bias going on?
He set out to thwart not just a No Deal Brexit but any Brexit at all. Worst Speaker in living memory.
Bercow championed parliament at the expense of the executive. Everyone accepts that this was his big consistent theme. I would expect a "worst Speaker in living memory" judgement only from those who consider parliament to have got too big for its boots. Surprised if that includes you. Wonder if there's a touch of the old Brexit bias going on?
He did nothing of the sort. He championed the EU cause in Parliament even when there was no threat from the executive. Indeed the biggest threat to Parliamentary Sovereignty IS from the EU and he certainly did his best to reduce the power of Parliament by his extreme anti-Brexit views and decisions
How could any business have him as a spokesperson after that interview. It would be commercial suicide.
Yes, how to explain the transformation of dashing RN pilot with Donny Osmond looks to seedy parasite in the space of a few years? Was it inevitable? Could things have been different if things had been different? Or was the Andrew as he became always there in the Andrew he once was? It's impossible to know. One can only speculate and there seems little point in that.
The randy andy moniker was neither a mistake nor without an understanding of his fancies. Hes just moved from 2nd in line and 'protected' to 8th in line and dispensable. The Epstein contact book and case will unmask a great many more untouchables.
I read that Charles is going to slimline things once he becomes King, with his siblings demoted to second-class royals.
And his only child to be the only other civil lister
How could any business have him as a spokesperson after that interview. It would be commercial suicide.
Yes, how to explain the transformation of dashing RN pilot with Donny Osmond looks to seedy parasite in the space of a few years? Was it inevitable? Could things have been different if things had been different? Or was the Andrew as he became always there in the Andrew he once was? It's impossible to know. One can only speculate and there seems little point in that.
The randy andy moniker was neither a mistake nor without an understanding of his fancies. Hes just moved from 2nd in line and 'protected' to 8th in line and dispensable. The Epstein contact book and case will unmask a great many more untouchables.
I read that Charles is going to slimline things once he becomes King, with his siblings demoted to second-class royals.
And his only child to be the only other civil lister
According to the BBC report, "Lord Justice Davis and Mr Justice Warby said ITV was not carrying out a "public function" with the debate, so the challenge was dismissed."
Swinson must so far be proving something of a disappointment to the LibDems. After the tedium that was Cable, they must have hoped that she would prove a breath of fresh air. However her crass naivety in declaring that if successful the party would simply revoke Article 50 and thereby scrap any prospect of Brrexit taking effect (against the wishes of the majority in the referendum) is proving to have done for her. I can only imagine this problem will exacerbate during the GE campaign as the other parties focus on this faux pas.
She was a dire choice, as I predicted, it can only get worse for the illiberal undemocrats.
Clarke will be an asset to the Lords. Bercow will not.
Bercow obviously debased and diminished the role but it could well turn out that he, Grieve and Letwin have ensured a much better electoral outcome for the Tories and leave Labour in an awful place post-election.
When does John Bercow's peerage arrive or are all non-Thatcherites now to be denied honours for services to public life?
No Sir Ken Clarke, despite 49 years of public service ...?
Clarke will be an asset to the Lords. Bercow will not.
Just as an aside by the way, has anyone ever served as both Commons Speaker and Lords Speaker (Lord Chancellor) during their careers?
Well is only recently that the lords elected their own speaker, before that it was the lord chancellor who was in the cabinet so I don’t think so.
Indeed but did anyone ever serve as Speaker in the Commons and then later serve as Lord Chancellor in the Lords?
I would say that it was virtually impossible but given the twisted constitutional past where The PM has also been speaker anything is possible. I’m just responding on my, perverted, logical view
Research out proves beyond a doubt that the UK press is overwhelmingly biased towards the Tories.
18 years ago most of the press backed Blair ie the Sun, the Times, the FT, the Guardian, the Independent, the Express and the Mirror. Only the Telegraph and the Mail backed Hague.
Even now more papers prefer Corbyn ie the Guardian, the Mirror and Independent to Boris than backed Hague's Tories then
Clarke will be an asset to the Lords. Bercow will not.
Bercow obviously debased and diminished the role but it could well turn out that he, Grieve and Letwin have ensured a much better electoral outcome for the Tories and leave Labour in an awful place post-election.
Bercow the Brexit hero.
Bercow did a good job of pulling the power away from a far too powerful executive, which Michael Martin allowed during his time as speaker. Over the course of time PMs with large majorities end up with speakers who let them do what they want, because they'll do it anyway, only to be followed by speakers who are voted in to do the opposite.
The blot on Bercow's reputation is the bullying allegations but there's been no investigation or proper evidence shown to back or clear him from it.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
No you're not. It accounts for 2-4% of the increase in Tory share but no increase in Tory seats. (I know it wards off challenges from LDs in about four seats).
The LibDem share is reducing as I predicted because of the targeting. It is good news for remainers as it will be reducing dramatically in non-target seats where LDs will be squeezed by Labour (avoiding a split remainer vote) and increasing dramatically in LD target seats (with a Labour squeeze).
As there are less than 100 LD target seats, this successful strategy leads to a reduction in overall LD share but an increase in number of LD seats.
Re Prince Nonce. We will look back in 5 years and remember him as part of the first page of the first chapter of this pandemic
Will we? What pandemic? Is this some kind of "deep down which of us is not guilty of noncedom in our heart of hearts" card being played?
The quite clear pandemic of abuse amongst the elite. Or, we can pretend its just Weinstein, Spacey, Epstein and Andrew and that the global figures for trafficking of people for sex and of minors is run by a few bad eggs and is not in any way an integrated worldwide scandal. All those people who flew on his plane with young girls and holidayed on his island were just 'mates' and had no idea of the pedo sex
Blood-sucking lizards in disguise, the lot of them!
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
anecdotal "evidence" is not inside information IMHO.
By all accounts Prince Andrew has treated people unpleasantly on the way up. I wonder what will now happen on the way down?
A touch ironic in the case of KPMG given their own recent difficulties amongst some of their senior staff.
Point of order: Andrew was never a spokesman for these organisations. They were sponsoring Pitch at the Palace which, from what I know, seems to be rather a good idea to put companies and young entrepreneurs in touch with each other. A pity if that becomes a victim of Andrew’s difficulties. Might be a good idea to get one of the younger royals involved - Harry, say, and for Andrew to bow out gracefully and concentrate on being a granddad.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
I am not convinced they hate Brexit more than Johnson however.
Hence why Swinson is trying her best to convince people she will never support a Corbyn Government.
The quite clear pandemic of abuse amongst the elite. Or, we can pretend its just Weinstein, Spacey, Epstein and Andrew and that the global figures for trafficking of people for sex and of minors is run by a few bad eggs and is not in any way an integrated worldwide scandal. All those people who flew on his plane with young girls and holidayed on his island were just 'mates' and had no idea of the pedo sex
Sex trafficking (including of minors) is a massive global industry. It is bigger than many legitimate sectors of the economy. It is run by organized crime syndicates and the customers are many and varied. The single common denominator which best defines both who runs and uses the industry is "men".
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
No you're not. It accounts for 2-4% of the increase in Tory share but no increase in Tory seats. (I know it wards off challenges from LDs in about four seats).
The LibDem share is reducing as I predicted because of the targeting. It is good news for remainers as it will be reducing dramatically in non-target seats where LDs will be squeezed by Labour (avoiding a split remainer vote) and increasing dramatically in LD target seats (with a Labour squeeze).
As there are less than 100 LD target seats, this successful strategy leads to a reduction in overall LD share but an increase in number of LD seats.
"Though Farron has been pursuing an 11th-hour strategy to persuade Labour voters to back him in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, Vauxhall is among a small number of Labour-held seats still in play for the Lib Dems. Leaked internal data indicates the party is neck-and-neck in the south-London seat, where it came fourth in 2015, after a backlash against the Labour leave supporter Kate Hoey, who has a 12,000 majority. Vauxhall had one of the highest remain votes in the country – 79%. Local Lib Dems have plastered the constituency with images of Hoey campaigning with the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage. The canvassing data from the final week of the campaign puts the two parties neck-and-neck, with the Lib Dems one point ahead, showing 35% voting for Hoey and 36% for the Lib Dem candidate, George Turner. "
The final result was Hoey 57.3%, LD 20% Majority over 20,000.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
One of the obvious legacies of Empire is that many citizens from countries in the Empire became entitled to become British citizens and move here to live, even after their home countries became independent. Is that one of the “legacies” a Labour government will examine? And, if not, why not? And to what purpose anyway?
I can recommend them quite a lot of scholarly literature on the subject - Empire and decolonization (and they can have a couple of papers that I’ve written if so inclined). However, I suspect that the conclusion is predetermined.....
Re Prince Nonce. We will look back in 5 years and remember him as part of the first page of the first chapter of this pandemic
Will we? What pandemic? Is this some kind of "deep down which of us is not guilty of noncedom in our heart of hearts" card being played?
The quite clear pandemic of abuse amongst the elite. Or, we can pretend its just Weinstein, Spacey, Epstein and Andrew and that the global figures for trafficking of people for sex and of minors is run by a few bad eggs and is not in any way an integrated worldwide scandal. All those people who flew on his plane with young girls and holidayed on his island were just 'mates' and had no idea of the pedo sex
But if you are right (and you might be) they are going to have mechanisms in place to get away with it. Look what happened to Epstein when he became the story. So your hopes of it all unravelling from here are probably misplaced.
As a sidenote, the thought of someone as rich as Andrew grovelling to Epstein to sub Sarah 15 measly grand rather than put his hand in his own pocket is as revolting in its own way as everything else about him.
He did nothing of the sort. He championed the EU cause in Parliament even when there was no threat from the executive. Indeed the biggest threat to Parliamentary Sovereignty IS from the EU and he certainly did his best to reduce the power of Parliament by his extreme anti-Brexit views and decisions
But he did much that had nothing to do with Brexit. On "urgent questions", for example.
Tories are delaying their manifesto. Why might this be?
I'm hoping the 1000th pass through has found a potential blooper that is being removed.
It doesn't need to brilliant, it just needs to be not sh*t.
Plus going last gives them the opportunity to respond to Labour's manifesto if there's something particular good to steal, something missed to put in, or something crap to show up...
Still high prreference for Swinson there. Makes TV debate issue even more ridiculous. The issue for the Lib Dems is how much will Labour voters in 3rd place switch, judging from the weekend report in the Observer they are only too pleased to do so. What most of us do not know is the strength of the Lib Dem campaigning in their critical seats and the reaction to it. We will only know on December 13th. Making surmises at this stage is silly.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
Maybe, but when it comes down to it, even the slightest sniff of Corbyn in power, will turn them into blue crosses. He's that dangerous.
Re Prince Nonce. We will look back in 5 years and remember him as part of the first page of the first chapter of this pandemic
Will we? What pandemic? Is this some kind of "deep down which of us is not guilty of noncedom in our heart of hearts" card being played?
The quite clear pandemic of abuse amongst the elite. Or, we can pretend its just Weinstein, Spacey, Epstein and Andrew and that the global figures for trafficking of people for sex and of minors is run by a few bad eggs and is not in any way an integrated worldwide scandal. All those people who flew on his plane with young girls and holidayed on his island were just 'mates' and had no idea of the pedo sex
But if you are right (and you might be) they are going to have mechanisms in place to get away with it. Look what happened to Epstein when he became the story. So your hopes of it all unravelling from here are probably misplaced.
As a sidenote, the thought of someone as rich as Andrew grovelling to Epstein to sub Sarah 15 measly grand rather than put his hand in his own pocket is as revolting in its own way as everything else about him.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
Maybe, but when it comes down to it, even the slightest sniff of Corbyn in power, will turn them into blue crosses. He's that dangerous.
I've got a 1992 feeling about this one. People are rightly pissed off, but once in the plywood booth, the vision of Jezza as PM will force some reluctant crosses for Tory candidates.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
That's why they're polling in the mid 40s and your unbiased model says it's not enough...
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
anecdotal "evidence" is not inside information IMHO.
Tories are delaying their manifesto. Why might this be?
I'm hoping the 1000th pass through has found a potential blooper that is being removed.
It doesn't need to brilliant, it just needs to be not sh*t.
It was always going to be delayed to the last possible moment, if the could they would delay until after postal votes go out. They are being given a free run by our media and their sycophantic press. As someone pointed out earlier we are only just entering the time frame of what would be a ‘normal’ election but can anyone tell me how many open public ,eetings has Johnson done, how many real voters he has met or when he has positively projected his policies to anything but a selected audience. He should be castigated for looking for photo opportunities in schools, hospitals etc when he should be campaigning out on the streets. I wonder why he doesn’t?
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
My thoughts the same.
I think the Labour vote - which is what her polling boost comes from I think - is going to abandon her in droves. I think they want a reason to go back to Labour and when they hear the words "referendum" in that debate, they'll flock back.
Lib Dems drop below 10% and that mostly goes to Labour, things suddenly get a lot closer.
I think Swinson is dreadful personally, the worst leader they've had in a while. I think they may do worse than 2017.
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
I agree with that. Her constant attacks on Labour irritate me too. But I understand the political necessity of taking that stance to reassure Tory switchers and it certainly won't stop me voting LibDem (or indeed canvassing, delivering, telling, knocking up). She mustn't go too far that she puts off tactical Labour voters.
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
I agree with that. Her constant attacks on Labour irritate me too. But I understand the political necessity of taking that stance to reassure Tory switchers and it certainly won't stop me voting LibDem (or indeed canvassing, delivering, telling, knocking up). She mustn't go too far that she puts off tactical Labour voters.
What's your feeling on the ground?
My feeling from London anyway, is the Lib Dems are having something of a surge here - but elsewhere I'm not convinced.
You're right that they've been increasing slowly since the start of the campaign. I think they probably will hit 30% in the averages very soon if this trend continues.
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
My thoughts the same.
I think the Labour vote - which is what her polling boost comes from I think - is going to abandon her in droves. I think they want a reason to go back to Labour and when they hear the words "referendum" in that debate, they'll flock back.
Lib Dems drop below 10% and that mostly goes to Labour, things suddenly get a lot closer.
I think Swinson is dreadful personally, the worst leader they've had in a while. I think they may do worse than 2017.
No sane person can support corbyn, the sooner they are rid of him the sooner they can return to sanity. It’s no different with a Johnson vote neither deserves support.
Off topic. West Bromwich East. Saw a stand for George Galloway getting set up on West Brom High St this afternoon. Four or five helpers/supporters setting up. I didn’t see him but I was only passing. “Mr Brexit” and “A Premier MP for Premiership West Brom” (if that’s a reference to footy then I’m unsure if they are a couple seasons out of date or being optimistic for next season, with the Baggies currently top of the Championship). My mom who lives in the constituency has had no flyers from anyone yet. No bet from me here yet; as I’ve previously flagged, Labour have replaced Watson with a London Remainer.
You're right that they've been increasing slowly since the start of the campaign. I think they probably will hit 30% in the averages very soon if this trend continues.
I know the whole "it's 2017 all over again" thing is basically a meme at this point - but in 2017 the Labour vote very slowly crept up as the weeks went on.
It seems to have flatlined last week - but I wonder if this week will be a return to a small increase or not.
I just do not believe Boris Johnson will win a landslide.
You're right that they've been increasing slowly since the start of the campaign. I think they probably will hit 30% in the averages very soon if this trend continues.
Not got long. Postal votes will be on their way in a week or so
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
My thoughts the same.
I think the Labour vote - which is what her polling boost comes from I think - is going to abandon her in droves. I think they want a reason to go back to Labour and when they hear the words "referendum" in that debate, they'll flock back.
Lib Dems drop below 10% and that mostly goes to Labour, things suddenly get a lot closer.
I think Swinson is dreadful personally, the worst leader they've had in a while. I think they may do worse than 2017.
No sane person can support corbyn, the sooner they are rid of him the sooner they can return to sanity. It’s no different with a Johnson vote neither deserves support.
That's not really answering my point though - that's what you think.
Personally, I think if we do get to a Hung Parliament, Corbyn will resign anyway. But that's only my prediction.
You're right that they've been increasing slowly since the start of the campaign. I think they probably will hit 30% in the averages very soon if this trend continues.
Not got long. Postal votes will be on their way in a week or so
What were they on when postal votes came out last time?
Didn't most of Labour's vote come in the final days of the campaign?
You're right that they've been increasing slowly since the start of the campaign. I think they probably will hit 30% in the averages very soon if this trend continues.
I know the whole "it's 2017 all over again" thing is basically a meme at this point - but in 2017 the Labour vote very slowly crept up as the weeks went on.
It seems to have flatlined last week - but I wonder if this week will be a return to a small increase or not.
I just do not believe Boris Johnson will win a landslide.
And in 2010. The tory lead eroded and eroded, and every time it eroded the tories said MoE.
I quite like the considered, thoughtful vibe that Jeremy is putting out in this campaign, e.g. on Marr and at the CBI. It's a striking contrast with the pandering, eager-to-please persona of Johnson. I sense it's deliberate.
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
I agree with that. Her constant attacks on Labour irritate me too. But I understand the political necessity of taking that stance to reassure Tory switchers and it certainly won't stop me voting LibDem (or indeed canvassing, delivering, telling, knocking up). She mustn't go too far that she puts off tactical Labour voters.
What's your feeling on the ground?
My feeling from London anyway, is the Lib Dems are having something of a surge here - but elsewhere I'm not convinced.
I only know London. We're having a surge here. Someone is going to lose £10K.
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
I agree with that. Her constant attacks on Labour irritate me too. But I understand the political necessity of taking that stance to reassure Tory switchers and it certainly won't stop me voting LibDem (or indeed canvassing, delivering, telling, knocking up). She mustn't go too far that she puts off tactical Labour voters.
Her attacks on LAB and Corbyn are important in order to win over CON GE2017 remainers. This is key group.
I've tactically voted LAB for the past two elections but no more. Corbyn failure to deal with LAB's antisemitism is what has turned me.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
Maybe, but when it comes down to it, even the slightest sniff of Corbyn in power, will turn them into blue crosses. He's that dangerous.
I've got a 1992 feeling about this one. People are rightly pissed off, but once in the plywood booth, the vision of Jezza as PM will force some reluctant crosses for Tory candidates.
In 1992 the government was behind throughout the campaign. Presently the Tories are miles ahead. If not 1983 then I would say 1987 was a better comparison. Or perhaps 1959.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way.
Maybe, but when it comes down to it, even the slightest sniff of Corbyn in power, will turn them into blue crosses. He's that dangerous.
I've got a 1992 feeling about this one. People are rightly pissed off, but once in the plywood booth, the vision of Jezza as PM will force some reluctant crosses for Tory candidates.
If the Tories are miles ahead on polling day it could help the LDs in places like Wimbledon and Finchley.
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
My thoughts the same.
I think the Labour vote - which is what her polling boost comes from I think - is going to abandon her in droves. I think they want a reason to go back to Labour and when they hear the words "referendum" in that debate, they'll flock back.
Lib Dems drop below 10% and that mostly goes to Labour, things suddenly get a lot closer.
I think Swinson is dreadful personally, the worst leader they've had in a while. I think they may do worse than 2017.
No sane person can support corbyn, the sooner they are rid of him the sooner they can return to sanity. It’s no different with a Johnson vote neither deserves support.
That's not really answering my point though - that's what you think.
Personally, I think if we do get to a Hung Parliament, Corbyn will resign anyway. But that's only my prediction.
Firstly I see nothing wrong in the Swinson leadership, if you are right and corbyn goes then it’s all to play for. It’s not labour it is corbyn and the ism that goes with it. It’s not looking good nationally but the exposure is poor. Does anyone know what rules the broadcast media are operating under? Nothing seems to have changed since the official election began it looks like 55/40/5% for Tory labour lib dem.
My prediction, for what it's worth (very little) is that we (Lib Dems) will finish up with 14% and about 35 seats with a very clumpy vote distribution.
My prediction, for what it's worth (very little) is that we (Lib Dems) will finish up with 14% and about 35 seats with a very clumpy vote distribution.
I think it will be significantly lower - but they will still win a decent number of seats.
New ICM poll for @Reuters: Conservatives 42% (+3) Labour 32% (+1) Lib Dems 13% (-2) Brexit Party 5% (-3)
Labour solidly above 30 is concerning
Labour were above 30 in the previous ICM. It's just one poll, which is not to say it's wrong, but most of the others differ and even with this one the Tory lead is decisive (sorry Barnesian).
A reply on that thread makes a good point - if Boris was in a big debate with all the party leaders, he'd be the only leaver there.
While I think he had to do at least some debates given what happened last time, an all party leader debate seems like it would have been better for him, splitting his opponents and cutting down on time he could gaffe. The framing of the election as Tory vs Labour has already been happening, and they don't want it to be too successful.
I think Ashcroft showed Lib Dems preferring a Corbyn government by a ratio of 2 to 1 . As a normal Labour voter Swinsons constant attacks on Labour are pissing off many of my friends who are ardent Remainers .
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
I agree with that. Her constant attacks on Labour irritate me too. But I understand the political necessity of taking that stance to reassure Tory switchers and it certainly won't stop me voting LibDem (or indeed canvassing, delivering, telling, knocking up). She mustn't go too far that she puts off tactical Labour voters.
Her attacks on LAB and Corbyn are important in order to win over CON GE2017 remainers. This is key group.
I've tactically voted LAB for the past two elections but no more. Corbyn failure to deal with LAB's antisemitism is what has turned me.
As I said I agree her attacks on LAB and Corbyn are important in order to win over CON GE2017 remainers. Each switch is worth two votes. One less Tory, one more LD. But she mustn't upset Labour tactical voters. Each is worth one vote. In the last General Election, LD HQ sent a letter to all Richmond Park Labour supporters heavily knocking Corbyn. The Labour vote went up by over 4,000. LDs lost by 45 votes.
Comments
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1196493871926202368?s=20
Bercow the Brexit hero.
Sir Thomas Audley?
DYOR though
Even now more papers prefer Corbyn ie the Guardian, the Mirror and Independent to Boris than backed Hague's Tories then
The blot on Bercow's reputation is the bullying allegations but there's been no investigation or proper evidence shown to back or clear him from it.
Remainers seem to me moving towards Labour on a weekly basis as they realise LD is a wasted vote in most cases.
As soon as they hear Corbyn mention the words referendum in that debate tomorrow, I think it will accelerate.
I would be astonished if Labour isn’t up to 35% by the end of this week.
The LibDem share is reducing as I predicted because of the targeting. It is good news for remainers as it will be reducing dramatically in non-target seats where LDs will be squeezed by Labour (avoiding a split remainer vote) and increasing dramatically in LD target seats (with a Labour squeeze).
As there are less than 100 LD target seats, this successful strategy leads to a reduction in overall LD share but an increase in number of LD seats.
The majority of the LD inflated vote seems to have come from Labour voters. You can chart their increase with the drop in the Labour vote.
If the LDs drop below 10%, I predict Labour will see gains quickly.
However, Boris only needs a draw with the debate/manifesto's whereas Labour need solid wins on both.
I was wrong on the Tories for instance. I thought they’d have dropped by now.
Point of order: Andrew was never a spokesman for these organisations. They were sponsoring Pitch at the Palace which, from what I know, seems to be rather a good idea to put companies and young entrepreneurs in touch with each other. A pity if that becomes a victim of Andrew’s difficulties. Might be a good idea to get one of the younger royals involved - Harry, say, and for Andrew to bow out gracefully and concentrate on being a granddad.
Hence why Swinson is trying her best to convince people she will never support a Corbyn Government.
Pointless answers both I should imagine.
https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1196495897976287233?s=20
https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1196496073549852677?s=20
https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1196496359127433221?s=20
https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1196497098482634752?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tim-farron-labour-votes-seats-lib-dems-tories
"Though Farron has been pursuing an 11th-hour strategy to persuade Labour voters to back him in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, Vauxhall is among a small number of Labour-held seats still in play for the Lib Dems. Leaked internal data indicates the party is neck-and-neck in the south-London seat, where it came fourth in 2015, after a backlash against the Labour leave supporter Kate Hoey, who has a 12,000 majority. Vauxhall had one of the highest remain votes in the country – 79%. Local Lib Dems have plastered the constituency with images of Hoey campaigning with the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage. The canvassing data from the final week of the campaign puts the two parties neck-and-neck, with the Lib Dems one point ahead, showing 35% voting for Hoey and 36% for the Lib Dem candidate, George Turner. "
The final result was Hoey 57.3%, LD 20% Majority over 20,000.
Marxists love controlling history.
It doesn't need to brilliant, it just needs to be not sh*t.
As a sidenote, the thought of someone as rich as Andrew grovelling to Epstein to sub Sarah 15 measly grand rather than put his hand in his own pocket is as revolting in its own way as everything else about him.
The issue for the Lib Dems is how much will Labour voters in 3rd place switch, judging from the weekend report in the Observer they are only too pleased to do so. What most of us do not know is the strength of the Lib Dem campaigning in their critical seats and the reaction to it.
We will only know on December 13th. Making surmises at this stage is silly.
If your red line is staying in the EU then everyone knows that will only happen with a Labour government there as at least the biggest party .
Swinson has to be careful to not go too far with her attacks on Corbyn . I said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% and I stand by that .
It's very slowly creeping up.
I think the Labour vote - which is what her polling boost comes from I think - is going to abandon her in droves. I think they want a reason to go back to Labour and when they hear the words "referendum" in that debate, they'll flock back.
Lib Dems drop below 10% and that mostly goes to Labour, things suddenly get a lot closer.
I think Swinson is dreadful personally, the worst leader they've had in a while. I think they may do worse than 2017.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
My feeling from London anyway, is the Lib Dems are having something of a surge here - but elsewhere I'm not convinced.
“Mr Brexit” and “A Premier MP for Premiership West Brom” (if that’s a reference to footy then I’m unsure if they are a couple seasons out of date or being optimistic for next season, with the Baggies currently top of the Championship). My mom who lives in the constituency has had no flyers from anyone yet.
No bet from me here yet; as I’ve previously flagged, Labour have replaced Watson with a London Remainer.
It seems to have flatlined last week - but I wonder if this week will be a return to a small increase or not.
I just do not believe Boris Johnson will win a landslide.
Personally, I think if we do get to a Hung Parliament, Corbyn will resign anyway. But that's only my prediction.
Didn't most of Labour's vote come in the final days of the campaign?
Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Green
40.4%/29.0%/14.9%/7.0%/3.1%
The effect of the slight tick up in Labour share is
320/227/32/0/1
[Wait for incoming howls of ridicule]
EDIT: This includes effect of BXP not standing in a number of non-Tory seats.
You screw your voters after they've already sent in their postal ballot.
I've tactically voted LAB for the past two elections but no more. Corbyn failure to deal with LAB's antisemitism is what has turned me.
Would see the Tories gain 38 seats from Labour on UNS and lose just 3 seats to the LDs
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Quite the attention to detail, that one.