Thanks for that Rob . Given the weekend polling there will be huge relief in Labour . 10 points isn’t insurmountable , I’ll be interested in seeing their turnout figures .
A thought. At what point does that fact everyone is saying “Corbyn has nothing to lose and can only win from the debate” mean he does, in fact, have something to lose and can underperform?
Thanks for that Rob . Given the weekend polling there will be huge relief in Labour . 10 points isn’t insurmountable , I’ll be interested in seeing their turnout figures .
Direction of travel still the wrong way for Labour....Tories still disappearing further over the horizon with ICM.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
It’s not racist , I’m merely pointing out how that demographic is key for Labour in certain seats . The 5% isn’t evenly spread and that’s why it does impact some Labour marginals.
Thanks for that Rob . Given the weekend polling there will be huge relief in Labour . 10 points isn’t insurmountable , I’ll be interested in seeing their turnout figures .
Direction of travel still the wrong way for Labour....Tories still disappearing further over the horizon with ICM.
True but not too much more juice to squeeze from the BXP. Still plenty of juice in that lib dem score tho'
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Thanks for that Rob . Given the weekend polling there will be huge relief in Labour . 10 points isn’t insurmountable , I’ll be interested in seeing their turnout figures .
Direction of travel still the wrong way for Labour....Tories still disappearing further over the horizon with ICM.
True but not too much more juice to squeeze from the BXP. Still plenty of juice in that lib dem score tho'
Yep. I predict PB Tories 4 Swinson will soon be a thing.
The same as Cambridge University? But it's hard to see how Labour wins any votes with this, and easy to see how they lose some.
Boris will take the piss by saying that a Conservative Govt. will apologise to the Neanderthals for Homo sapiens making them extinct.
I mean, if you want to go back.
(He's real sorry about the passing of the dinosaurs too, but that really was an act of God, nothing to do with man that time.)
I think Boris would be well advised to steer clear of comparing former colonial subjects to neanderthals. His likening of gay marriage to bestiality still haunts him.
It’s likely that given all the polling over the last 18 months that there’s a bigger pool of Remainers out there , could complicate things for the Tories if we see bigger turnouts in that group .
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
It’s not racist , I’m merely pointing out how that demographic is key for Labour in certain seats . The 5% isn’t evenly spread and that’s why it does impact some Labour marginals.
My apologies if you thought I was calling you racist, I wasn't. That line is often used by critics of Labour/Muslims and I find it unpleasant - I'd far rather view Muslims as individuals just as anyone else than be lumped together as one stereotype.
I just find it somewhat disturbing to consider any group like that homogenous. I hope we never hear a party speak about their "white voter firewall" in this country for instance.
Thanks for that Rob . Given the weekend polling there will be huge relief in Labour . 10 points isn’t insurmountable , I’ll be interested in seeing their turnout figures .
Direction of travel still the wrong way for Labour....Tories still disappearing further over the horizon with ICM.
True but not too much more juice to squeeze from the BXP. Still plenty of juice in that lib dem score tho'
Not as much as you think. There's plenty in that 13% will NEVER vote tactically for an anti-semite Marxist. If you don't believe my doorstep stories, ask OGH.....
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
But it's not 5% in every seat....
How many marginals will this be a significant factor in?
Thanks for that Rob . Given the weekend polling there will be huge relief in Labour . 10 points isn’t insurmountable , I’ll be interested in seeing their turnout figures .
Direction of travel still the wrong way for Labour....Tories still disappearing further over the horizon with ICM.
True but not too much more juice to squeeze from the BXP. Still plenty of juice in that lib dem score tho'
Not as much as you think. There's plenty in that 13% will NEVER vote tactically for an anti-semite Marxist. If you don't believe my doorstep stories, ask OGH.....
Indeed and the Lib Dems, even under Swinson, will have a much higher floor than the BXP.
The same as Cambridge University? But it's hard to see how Labour wins any votes with this, and easy to see how they lose some.
Boris will take the piss by saying that a Conservative Govt. will apologise to the Neanderthals for Homo sapiens making them extinct.
I mean, if you want to go back.
(He's real sorry about the passing of the dinosaurs too, but that really was an act of God, nothing to do with man that time.)
I think Boris would be well advised to steer clear of comparing former colonial subjects to neanderthals. His likening of gay marriage to bestiality still haunts him.
Agreed if the subject comes up he'd be better off saying something about looking to the future rather than the past and moving on. As would Corbyn if he was smarter.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
It’s not racist , I’m merely pointing out how that demographic is key for Labour in certain seats . The 5% isn’t evenly spread and that’s why it does impact some Labour marginals.
My apologies if you thought I was calling you racist, I wasn't. That line is often used by critics of Labour/Muslims and I find it unpleasant - I'd far rather view Muslims as individuals just as anyone else than be lumped together as one stereotype.
I just find it somewhat disturbing to consider any group like that homogenous. I hope we never hear a party speak about their "white voter firewall" in this country for instance.
No worries . But each party does have its demographic strong points and weak points . It’s important of course as you said to not view this as one homogeneous group . Generally though we know that certain demographics play better for certain parties .
A thought. At what point does that fact everyone is saying “Corbyn has nothing to lose and can only win from the debate” mean he does, in fact, have something to lose and can underperform?
I don't think he has anything to lose. He could have a total wibble-fest and the Maomentumers will still back him, he does have the chance to try and pick up more Remain / soft leave voters if he does ok.
Boris on the other hand can only pitch to Leavers and he is never any good at debates.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible. Now Labour might be able to pick up more remainers and the Lib Dem never figure, or the Lib Dem might get some air time and use it.
As I have said repeatedly, I think the thing the Tories should worry about is 42%+ is historically way more than they ever get and it is currently predicated on winning the working class. That is far from a given.
Thanks for that Rob . Given the weekend polling there will be huge relief in Labour . 10 points isn’t insurmountable , I’ll be interested in seeing their turnout figures .
Direction of travel still the wrong way for Labour....Tories still disappearing further over the horizon with ICM.
True but not too much more juice to squeeze from the BXP. Still plenty of juice in that lib dem score tho'
Not as much as you think. There's plenty in that 13% will NEVER vote tactically for an anti-semite Marxist. If you don't believe my doorstep stories, ask OGH.....
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
If they tank, it is really quite a bad sign for the mood of the country. That they really don't want a sensible centre left party. It is hard left or hard-ish right.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
More than 10% of the vote in more than 80 constituencies.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I have a theory that the BXP > Con move is bigger than the mechanical effect of the BXP candidate disappearing in half the constituencies. BXP voters are basically populists, and populists admire strength. Now that Our Nige has basically given in to Boris via his big stand-down, he has made himself look weak, whereas Boris looks stronger than ever. So the pile on from BXP voters to Boris The Strong Who Will Get Brexit Done is going to be bigger than linear arithmetic would suggest...
CBI Dame Carolyn Fairbairn said of Jezza plans - "false instincts for mass nationalisations and forcing inclusive ownership schemes onto thriving businesses does little more than frighten off investors from backing the UK, with pensioners and savers having to foot the bill."
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
The ICM on the face of it looks like a direct swing from the BP to the Tories .
Which is understandable given the BP has stood down in those Tory seats . More interesting is the Labour share , upto 32% .
That’s pretty good compared to other polls.
Nice try...but just +1....they have literally had the best possible week media wise, Tories all over the shop, promised free broadband to all and got +1 uptick.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
It’s not racist , I’m merely pointing out how that demographic is key for Labour in certain seats . The 5% isn’t evenly spread and that’s why it does impact some Labour marginals.
My apologies if you thought I was calling you racist, I wasn't. That line is often used by critics of Labour/Muslims and I find it unpleasant - I'd far rather view Muslims as individuals just as anyone else than be lumped together as one stereotype.
I just find it somewhat disturbing to consider any group like that homogenous. I hope we never hear a party speak about their "white voter firewall" in this country for instance.
Muslims vote 85% Labour though. I hardly think Muslims need wooing.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
If they tank, it is really quite a bad sign for the mood of the country. That they really don't want a sensible centre left party. It is hard left or hard-ish right.
No, it's the opposite. We do need a sensible centre-left, or even better centre party, but the LibDems are not doing a good job of presenting themselves as that party.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
More than 10% of the vote in more than 80 constituencies.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
If they tank, it is really quite a bad sign for the mood of the country. That they really don't want a sensible centre left party. It is hard left or hard-ish right.
No, it's the opposite. We do need a sensible centre-left, or even better centre party, but the LibDems are not doing a good job of presenting themselves as that party.
Putting aside the terrible revoke policy, all the other stuff seems fairly centrist, no?
I don't see Boris getting a landslide. A small majority is no more or less than this Government deserves - enough to get Brexit done and prove themselves.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
More than 10% of the vote in more than 80 constituencies.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
If they tank, it is really quite a bad sign for the mood of the country. That they really don't want a sensible centre left party. It is hard left or hard-ish right.
No, it's the opposite. We do need a sensible centre-left, or even better centre party, but the LibDems are not doing a good job of presenting themselves as that party.
Putting aside the terrible revoke policy, all the other stuff seems fairly centrist, no?
What other stuff?
If you put aside the revoke policy they seem a bit of a blank slate this year.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
If they tank, it is really quite a bad sign for the mood of the country. That they really don't want a sensible centre left party. It is hard left or hard-ish right.
No, it's the opposite. We do need a sensible centre-left, or even better centre party, but the LibDems are not doing a good job of presenting themselves as that party.
The ICM on the face of it looks like a direct swing from the BP to the Tories .
Which is understandable given the BP has stood down in those Tory seats . More interesting is the Labour share , upto 32% .
That’s pretty good compared to other polls.
Nice try...but just +1....they have literally had the best possible week media wise, Tories all over the shop, promised free broadband to all and got +1 uptick.
I agree I thought the NHS and other things would have effected the polling . I suppose Labour need Trump to go awol on his visit and drop a clanger on his visit re the NHS .
Can you imagine the panic in no 10 if Trump said of course the NHS will be part of any trade deal. Yes I know it’s very unlikely given he wants Bozo to win but it would be hilarious to see the no 10 spin machine try to mitigate the damage .
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
More than 10% of the vote in more than 80 constituencies.
I don't see Boris getting a landslide. A small majority is no more or less than this Government deserves - enough to get Brexit done and prove themselves.
I agree. The voters aren;t going to give the tories a blank chque, no matter how pants labour are.
Is it possible that the Tory uptick will only serve to increase Tory votes in safe constituencies and that marginals will still be very unpredictable? Does the date of the uptick correspond with the Brexit Party decision to stand down?
Putting aside the terrible revoke policy, all the other stuff seems fairly centrist, no?
The trouble is that there hasn't been much sensible other stuff. Other than the Brexit policy, the main things which stand out from the LibDems since the election was mooted are:
1. They made a great play about wanting the election on a Monday in December, and then failed to vote for it on the grounds that it was on the Thursday of the same week.
2. The tried to tack on votes for children and foreigners as amendments to that vote. Whatever view you take on the merits of those - and most people are against both - a serious party wouldn't propose major changes to the franchise as an amendment on a short bill for an election date.
3. Jo Swinson's main contribution has been ludicrous whinging that she was excluded from the TV debates on sexist grounds. This is just childish.
4. Her other contribution has been to claim that she could be PM after the election.
None of this gives the impression that they are a serious party, which is where the big gap in the political landscape is.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
I thought the idea that "the Muslim vote" is a key firewall for Labour to be a rather racist and not really practical stereotype.
Muslims make up fewer than 5% of the population.
More than 10% of the vote in more than 80 constituencies.
A reminder that there are more important things than the Bozo and Jezza show:
"Deforestation of Brazil's Amazon rainforest increased by 29.5% in 12 months, the highest rate since 2008, the country's space agency reports. The rainforest lost 9,762 sq km (3,769 sq miles) of its vegetation between August 2018 and July 2019, Inpe says."
Is it possible that the Tory uptick will only serve to increase Tory votes in safe constituencies and that marginals will still be very unpredictable? Does the date of the uptick correspond with the Brexit Party decision to stand down?
Labour playing tortoise at the moment.
Alternatively, labour could be piling up votes in Hackney and Merseyside....
Putting aside the terrible revoke policy, all the other stuff seems fairly centrist, no?
The trouble is that there hasn't been much sensible other stuff. Other than the Brexit policy, the main things which stand out from the LibDems since the election was mooted are:
1. They made a great play about wanting the election on a Monday in December, and then failed to vote for it on the grounds that it was on the Thursday of the same week.
2. The tried to tack on votes for children and foreigners as amendments to that vote. Whatever view you take on the merits of those - and most people are against both - a serious party wouldn't propose major changes to the franchise as an amendment on a short bill for an election date.
3. Jo Swinson's main contribution has been ludicrous whinging that she was excluded from the TV debates on sexist grounds. This is just childish.
4. Her other contribution has been to claim that she could be PM after the election.
None of this gives the impression that they are a serious party, which is where the big gap in the political landscape is.
Evening all. You are forgetting the tree growing target. Be fair now.
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
If they tank, it is really quite a bad sign for the mood of the country. That they really don't want a sensible centre left party. It is hard left or hard-ish right.
No, it's the opposite. We do need a sensible centre-left, or even better centre party, but the LibDems are not doing a good job of presenting themselves as that party.
Putting aside the terrible revoke policy, all the other stuff seems fairly centrist, no?
Using "Bollocks" as their standout word whilst trying to present themselves as a sensible, moderate party is not a good idea IMO
Why I think Bercow is great . That’s a great move by Sky . Without Bercow we could have ended up crashing out with no deal . He might be arrogant and full of himself but anyone who pisses off the unhinged ERG nutjobs is fine by me !
A reminder that there are more important things than the Bozo and Jezza show:
"Deforestation of Brazil's Amazon rainforest increased by 29.5% in 12 months, the highest rate since 2008, the country's space agency reports. The rainforest lost 9,762 sq km (3,769 sq miles) of its vegetation between August 2018 and July 2019, Inpe says."
Is it possible that the Tory uptick will only serve to increase Tory votes in safe constituencies and that marginals will still be very unpredictable? Does the date of the uptick correspond with the Brexit Party decision to stand down?
As a bare minimum, it will serve to help the Tories against the LibDems.
Putting aside the terrible revoke policy, all the other stuff seems fairly centrist, no?
The trouble is that there hasn't been much sensible other stuff. Other than the Brexit policy, the main things which stand out from the LibDems since the election was mooted are:
1. They made a great play about wanting the election on a Monday in December, and then failed to vote for it on the grounds that it was on the Thursday of the same week.
2. The tried to tack on votes for children and foreigners as amendments to that vote. Whatever view you take on the merits of those - and most people are against both - a serious party wouldn't propose major changes to the franchise as an amendment on a short bill for an election date.
3. Jo Swinson's main contribution has been ludicrous whinging that she was excluded from the TV debates on sexist grounds. This is just childish.
4. Her other contribution has been to claim that she could be PM after the election.
None of this gives the impression that they are a serious party, which is where the big gap in the political landscape is.
Evening all. You are forgetting the tree growing target. Be fair now.
To do in five years a mere fifth of what Ethiopia did in 12 hours?
Why I think Bercow is great . That’s a great move by Sky . Without Bercow we could have ended up crashing out with no deal . He might be arrogant and full of himself but anyone who pisses off the unhinged ERG nutjobs is fine by me !
Can we all write in to Sky and tell them that him saying “order, order” when other guests fall out is an obvious joke and won’t be funny?
Is it possible that the Tory uptick will only serve to increase Tory votes in safe constituencies and that marginals will still be very unpredictable? Does the date of the uptick correspond with the Brexit Party decision to stand down?
Labour playing tortoise at the moment.
Alternatively, labour could be piling up votes in Hackney and Merseyside....
More likely the Lib Dems are taking votes in urban areas which were more pro Remain but Labour still has enough of a lead to keep them and their vote is become more efficient . After the 17 point horror show lead for the Tories in the YouGov poll Labour will be relieved to see this ICM poll.
Why I think Bercow is great . That’s a great move by Sky . Without Bercow we could have ended up crashing out with no deal . He might be arrogant and full of himself but anyone who pisses off the unhinged ERG nutjobs is fine by me !
He set out to thwart not just a No Deal Brexit but any Brexit at all. Worst Speaker in living memory.
Is it possible that the Tory uptick will only serve to increase Tory votes in safe constituencies and that marginals will still be very unpredictable? Does the date of the uptick correspond with the Brexit Party decision to stand down?
Labour playing tortoise at the moment.
The evidence, such as it is, suggests the Tory monster majorities are being pressed (wokingham etc, other southern and home counties seats) and their vote is holding up due to support in leave areas (such as the North and Midlands). Almost a perfect storm, but also very very precarious and susceptible to a few % points dip
Why I think Bercow is great . That’s a great move by Sky . Without Bercow we could have ended up crashing out with no deal . He might be arrogant and full of himself but anyone who pisses off the unhinged ERG nutjobs is fine by me !
If the polls are right, it's Sky that's trolling him!
Anyone got any insights or hunches regarding Hartlepool consitituency?
Three-way marginal - very tricky to call. Tice for BXP.
I`m on Labour at 11/10 at the moment but may have this wrong.
Good call. Tories probably not strong enough to take but too strong to let Tice take it. Get on Con if they are 12% clear on average in the polls by polling day
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
Alternatively, if Labour can't win and Brexit can't be stopped, how many are going to think "sod the lot of them...." and not vote at all?
Another poll...another one showing an extended Tory lead. Only 1 of all the polls over the weekend didn't show Tories extending their lead (and that was showing same lead). And that is after an absolutely shit week for the Tories in the media.
But Brexit pulling half their candidates is the dominant factor in that. Represents an increase in Tory vote share in seats they already hold. Not where they need to make gains.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
I think that is a fair point, but the Labour trend line has also flat-lined and that is with the Lib Dems being totally invisible.
In the event it really looks like Labour can’t win, you have to wonder if some centre left voters will say “sod it, let’s give the LibDems some love”.
Alternatively, if Labour can't win and Brexit can't be stopped, how many are going to think "sod the lot of them...." and not vote at all?
Labour can’t, won’t and shouldn’t win so no need to be scared of Corbyn, vote lib dem to try and modify the future. If you ever want to see a none Tory government again vote anything but labour to rid them of the destruction within.
How could any business have him as a spokesperson after that interview. It would be commercial suicide.
Yes, how to explain the transformation of dashing RN pilot with Donny Osmond looks to seedy parasite in the space of a few years? Was it inevitable? Could things have been different if things had been different? Or was the Andrew as he became always there in the Andrew he once was? It's impossible to know. One can only speculate and there seems little point in that.
How could any business have him as a spokesperson after that interview. It would be commercial suicide.
Yes, how to explain the transformation of dashing RN pilot with Donny Osmond looks to seedy parasite in the space of a few years? Was it inevitable? Could things have been different if things had been different? Or was the Andrew as he became always there in the Andrew he once was? It's impossible to know. One can only speculate and there seems little point in that.
The randy andy moniker was neither a mistake nor without an understanding of his fancies. Hes just moved from 2nd in line and 'protected' to 8th in line and dispensable. The Epstein contact book and case will unmask a great many more untouchables.
How could any business have him as a spokesperson after that interview. It would be commercial suicide.
Yes, how to explain the transformation of dashing RN pilot with Donny Osmond looks to seedy parasite in the space of a few years? Was it inevitable? Could things have been different if things had been different? Or was the Andrew as he became always there in the Andrew he once was? It's impossible to know. One can only speculate and there seems little point in that.
The randy andy moniker was neither a mistake nor without an understanding of his fancies. Hes just moved from 2nd in line and 'protected' to 8th in line and dispensable. The Epstein contact book and case will unmask a great many more untouchables.
I read that Charles is going to slimline things once he becomes King, with his siblings demoted to second-class royals.
Have they legalized marijuana yet because a lot seems to be going around at Labour HQ !
Seriously though this looks a bit silly but perhaps is aimed at ethnic minorities . Not forgetting that Labours firewall in quite a few marginals in the Midlands and nw is the Muslim vote .
One of the obvious legacies of Empire is that many citizens from countries in the Empire became entitled to become British citizens and move here to live, even after their home countries became independent. Is that one of the “legacies” a Labour government will examine? And, if not, why not? And to what purpose anyway?
Re Prince Nonce. We will look back in 5 years and remember him as part of the first page of the first chapter of this pandemic
Will we? What pandemic? Is this some kind of "deep down which of us is not guilty of noncedom in our heart of hearts" card being played?
The quite clear pandemic of abuse amongst the elite. Or, we can pretend its just Weinstein, Spacey, Epstein and Andrew and that the global figures for trafficking of people for sex and of minors is run by a few bad eggs and is not in any way an integrated worldwide scandal. All those people who flew on his plane with young girls and holidayed on his island were just 'mates' and had no idea of the pedo sex
Comments
I mean, if you want to go back.
(He's real sorry about the passing of the dinosaurs too, but that really was an act of God, nothing to do with man that time.)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1196425921802178560?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1196425928768929792?s=20
Not had an Ipsos or ORB for a while, but those aren't so regular.
Still, at least all this will provide future Politics PhD candidates with something to write about.
Remain 54
Leave 46
It’s likely that given all the polling over the last 18 months that there’s a bigger pool of Remainers out there , could complicate things for the Tories if we see bigger turnouts in that group .
I just find it somewhat disturbing to consider any group like that homogenous. I hope we never hear a party speak about their "white voter firewall" in this country for instance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/nov/18/general-election-boris-johnson-arcuri-business-tax-labour-immigration-lib-dems-debates-live-news?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with:block-5dd2cb3f8f08eeb483f19cb4#block-5dd2cb3f8f08eeb483f19cb4
Being in coalition with the Tories made the LibDems stronger. FUCK. ME.
https://twitter.com/EamonnONeill/status/1196474398666035200?s=20
https://twitter.com/MrMalky/status/1196476167622217728?s=20
Boris on the other hand can only pitch to Leavers and he is never any good at debates.
Yes, I'm clutching at straws...
As I have said repeatedly, I think the thing the Tories should worry about is 42%+ is historically way more than they ever get and it is currently predicated on winning the working class. That is far from a given.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/18/college-apologises-after-vegan-outcry-over-use-of-sheep-in-naked-calendar
List here:
https://conservativemuslimforum.com/can-we-help/resources/muslim-demographics-by-constituency/292/
I'll put her down as a maybe?
Which is understandable given the BP has stood down in those Tory seats . More interesting is the Labour share , upto 32% .
That’s pretty good compared to other polls.
Just talked turkey with a mate who lives in Cambridge. He's a true blue Tory, never voted any other way, usually has a Con poster in his window at GE time. This time is different. Cannot abide Johnson and his monkey business, therefore is voting LD. Not a tactical anti-Lab vote, this, but a "hacked off with the Cons" vote.
I have done the obvious on Betfair for Cambridge.
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 32% (+1)
LDM: 13% (-2)
BXP: 5% (-3)
Via @ICMResearch, 15-18 Nov.
Changes w/ 8-11 Nov.
If you put aside the revoke policy they seem a bit of a blank slate this year.
Can you imagine the panic in no 10 if Trump said of course the NHS will be part of any trade deal. Yes I know it’s very unlikely given he wants Bozo to win but it would be hilarious to see the no 10 spin machine try to mitigate the damage .
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/john-bercow-to-join-sky-news-for-election-night-coverage/ar-BBWX0Vj?ocid=spartanntp
Labour playing tortoise at the moment.
1. They made a great play about wanting the election on a Monday in December, and then failed to vote for it on the grounds that it was on the Thursday of the same week.
2. The tried to tack on votes for children and foreigners as amendments to that vote. Whatever view you take on the merits of those - and most people are against both - a serious party wouldn't propose major changes to the franchise as an amendment on a short bill for an election date.
3. Jo Swinson's main contribution has been ludicrous whinging that she was excluded from the TV debates on sexist grounds. This is just childish.
4. Her other contribution has been to claim that she could be PM after the election.
None of this gives the impression that they are a serious party, which is where the big gap in the political landscape is.
"Deforestation of Brazil's Amazon rainforest increased by 29.5% in 12 months, the highest rate since 2008, the country's space agency reports. The rainforest lost 9,762 sq km (3,769 sq miles) of its vegetation between August 2018 and July 2019, Inpe says."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-50459602
No Sir Ken Clarke, despite 49 years of public service ...?
Three-way marginal - very tricky to call. Tice for BXP.
I`m on Labour at 11/10 at the moment but may have this wrong.