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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting polling’s bad for LAB but Corbyn’s ratings are even

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  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    A state broadband monopoly would be an outstanding way of exercising control over the population. Are you an enemy of the state? Suddenly your service is unavailable.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    alex. said:

    Great plan for free broadband for all.

    About time too.

    Free computers as well? After all, the former is pretty useless without the latter...
    I know you're being sarcastic but yeah, throw in a cheapo android tablet for any house that doesn't already have a computer or smartphone, it won't cost much and you'll save money from being able to deliver more government services purely online.
    Cheap android tablets: why do you really hate your fellow countrymen?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    I believe that’s called “English irony”
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    rcs1000 said:

    In Scotland this election is relatively simple.

    Vote SCon if you believe in a United kingdom
    Vote SNP if you believe in an Independent Scotland part of the United States of Europe
    Vote SLib if you believe in revoking article 50

    Vote SLAB if you want to waste your vote!

    Isn't it:

    SCon if you believe in the UK and Brexit
    SNP if you want Scotland to leave the UK
    SLib if you believe in the UK and spend every waking moment hating the very thought of Brexit
    SLab if you believe that for too long government has been the preserve of the talented, and in future there should be equal opportunities irrespective of ability.
    Isn't it:

    SCon if you believe in the UK and Brexit
    SNP if you want Scotland to leave the UK
    SLib if you believe in the UK and spend every waking moment hating the very thought of Brexit - but if push comes to shove, you would cosy up with Labour and the SNP to facilitate the break up of the UK and some weird rambling renegotiation and revote on Brexit, if it meant even a sniff of power again
    SLab if you believe that for too long government has been the preserve of the talented, and in future there should be equal opportunities irrespective of ability
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    The LDs have doubled their vote share on 2017, they did very well in the K&S council elections last year, and it's a Remainiac seat.

    I'd be shocked, staggered, and surprised if Ed Davey lost his seat.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    Post of the morning.

    Said what I wanted to, only much better.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    Except the Lib Dem’s aren’t your Party. Are they Rose? 😉
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    But she'll still vote Tory.

    Cuz Corbyn.
  • RobCLRobCL Posts: 23

    Great plan for free broadband for all.

    About time too.

    Why is this a good idea?

    Firstly, it won't be "free". We'll still pay, but through taxes rather than bills.

    Secondly, what about people who don't want the allegedly free package? What if they want a more basic service (as they don't stream videos etc - just use email) or do not want it at all?

    Thirdly, what do businesses do? The plan is presumably for households, but do businesses requiring dedicated, high capacity services also go via this nationalised business, and how does the pricing work?

    Fourthly, the cost high speed broadband to the final couple of percent in very rural, hard to reach areas is astronomical. Is it really worth it? To a large extent, living in those areas is a choice - the broadband isn't as good, but there are other benefits and a lot of people just don't care about video streaming.

    Fifthly, what evidence is there that the Government would run this more effectively than the private sector, that they'd be quicker at rolling out infrastructure or fixing faults?
    Having posted negatively about it....... quite early in the morning........ I was impressed by the analogy of water and sewage. There are places without mains water and without connections to the sewer system but they are very unusual.
    There are a significant number of houses without mains sewer services including whole villages but I can’t find data on this. No mains water is about 0.14% in England and Wales.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    But she'll still vote Tory.

    Cuz Corbyn.
    Well keep telling yourself that, but I wonder ... as I suspect you do too really
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    I believe that’s called “English irony”
    Nah. There was real venom in her words.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    I believe that’s called “English irony”
    Nah. There was real venom in her words.
    Maybe she hates diehard remoaners with all her might? ;)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    The LDs have doubled their vote share on 2017, they did very well in the K&S council elections last year, and it's a Remainiac seat.

    I'd be shocked, staggered, and surprised if Ed Davey lost his seat.
    Agreed Robert. It's the seat my brother lives in. Lifelong tory voter, but this time he's voting for Ed Davey. His comment was that he's fed up with the Conservatives, doesn't like Brexit which he thinks is a shambles, and likes Ed Davey.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited November 2019
    Boris is a sh*t. He's a mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon. In short, the man is a joke who only cares about himself.

    Sadly, Corbyn is just incompetent and thick!

    There lies the problem for this country. A laughing stock we have become.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2019
    RobCL said:


    There are a significant number of houses without mains sewer services including whole villages but I can’t find data on this. No mains water is about 0.14% in England and Wales.

    The house in Japan I'm about to move into (not in Tokyo) has no sewer and when I bought it there was no septic tank either, the toilets emptied directly into a hole in the ground. But it came with gigabit fiber obviously, we're not savages.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    The LDs have doubled their vote share on 2017, they did very well in the K&S council elections last year, and it's a Remainiac seat.

    I'd be shocked, staggered, and surprised if Ed Davey lost his seat.
    Agreed Robert. It's the seat my brother lives in. Lifelong tory voter, but this time he's voting for Ed Davey. His comment was that he's fed up with the Conservatives, doesn't like Brexit which he thinks is a shambles, and likes Ed Davey.
    He sounds like an intelligent man.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Of the 4 Surrey seats I mentioned, I reckon Guildford is 50-50 to go LibDem.

    Woking's the outside bet. I reckon the LibDems will get within 10% of the Cons vote. Which means it's in play.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    rcs1000 said:

    "Swinson has the the largest number, 33%, saying don’t know and that should get smaller during the campaign."

    Oh, I wouldn't be too sure about that ... millions of voters are likely to be confused, perplexed, angry even that a so-called democratic and liberal party have denied what it says on the can by promising to revoke Article 50, just like that, without even so much as a second referendum, offering a leave option which was voted for by a majority, totalling in excess of 17 million.
    Nothing very democratic or liberal about that, which probably largely explains the sharp decline in the party's fortunes over the past few weeks and why the likes of the spread-betting firms have chopped their prices for LD seats by around 25% from the high forties then to the mid thirties now ... shame really, it was looking so positive for them just a few weeks ago.

    I think that - even if Jo Swinson had not made her foolish and undemocratic pledge - then the LibDem seat markets would have declined. Simply, the mid-40s number was always absurd.

    Indeed, anything above around 31-32 is incredibly difficult for the LDs, unless there is a major shift from Labour.
    Why is it “undemocratic” ?
    It could only happen with a Lib Dem majority. I don’t see any way of that remotely happening without at least half of the electorate deciding that they wish to revoke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    rcs1000 said:

    In Scotland this election is relatively simple.

    Vote SCon if you believe in a United kingdom
    Vote SNP if you believe in an Independent Scotland part of the United States of Europe
    Vote SLib if you believe in revoking article 50

    Vote SLAB if you want to waste your vote!

    Isn't it:

    SCon if you believe in the UK and Brexit
    SNP if you want Scotland to leave the UK
    SLib if you believe in the UK and spend every waking moment hating the very thought of Brexit
    SLab if you believe that for too long government has been the preserve of the talented, and in future there should be equal opportunities irrespective of ability.
    Isn't it:

    SCon if you believe in the UK and Brexit
    SNP if you want Scotland to leave the UK
    SLib if you believe in the UK and spend every waking moment hating the very thought of Brexit - but if push comes to shove, you would cosy up with Labour and the SNP to facilitate the break up of the UK and some weird rambling renegotiation and revote on Brexit, if it meant even a sniff of power again
    SLab if you believe that for too long government has been the preserve of the talented, and in future there should be equal opportunities irrespective of ability
    No.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited November 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    The LDs have doubled their vote share on 2017, they did very well in the K&S council elections last year, and it's a Remainiac seat.

    I'd be shocked, staggered, and surprised if Ed Davey lost his seat.
    Agreed Robert. It's the seat my brother lives in. Lifelong tory voter, but this time he's voting for Ed Davey. His comment was that he's fed up with the Conservatives, doesn't like Brexit which he thinks is a shambles, and likes Ed Davey.
    I used to live in Surbiton many years ago , indeed at the time Davey first won there by 52 votes . I switched from Labour to the Lib Dems and was very happy that my vote could have made all the difference . I’ve bumped into Davey a few times in the local shops, he’s a really nice guy , always willing to stop and chat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Dura_Ace said:
    Fat Narcissus.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    The LDs have doubled their vote share on 2017, they did very well in the K&S council elections last year, and it's a Remainiac seat.

    I'd be shocked, staggered, and surprised if Ed Davey lost his seat.
    Agreed Robert. It's the seat my brother lives in. Lifelong tory voter, but this time he's voting for Ed Davey. His comment was that he's fed up with the Conservatives, doesn't like Brexit which he thinks is a shambles, and likes Ed Davey.
    Now we know you are lying. NOBODY likes Ed Davey.....
  • Nigelb said:


    Why is it “undemocratic” ?
    It could only happen with a Lib Dem majority. I don’t see any way of that remotely happening without at least half of the electorate deciding that they wish to revoke.

    Not to mention if people think that's undemocratic, try asking them to vote in a referendum with the choice of either Remain or a deal negotiated by Prime Minister Jo "Bollocks to Brexit" Swinson.
  • Hi all. First post. A political betting related question..... Bet Victor have Labour on 6/4 on getting over 219.5 seats. Doesn’t that seem very good odds? The chances of labour worse than 219 is approaching con landslide territory.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    In other news, Arriva have decided in all their infinite wisdom to run my morning bus as a single decker rather than a double decker and now its grim AF.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    But she'll still vote Tory.

    Cuz Corbyn.
    Well keep telling yourself that, but I wonder ... as I suspect you do too really
    You did the FUD module, I see.
  • If Wimbledon does go LD (full disclosure: I’m on) I’ve got a feeling it will get just as much coverage in the broadcast media as the results around the rest of the country, even if a solid Tory majority is achieved.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    But she'll still vote Tory.

    Cuz Corbyn.
    Well keep telling yourself that, but I wonder ... as I suspect you do too really
    No. We don’t. We really don’t.

    Remember that Corbyn for all his front is a man who:

    1) Donates to Holocaust deniers;
    2) Supports terrorism;
    3) Helps cover up for child sexual abusers;
    4) Appoints senior officials on the basis they are in a sexual relationship with one of his key allies;
    5) Proposes a massive transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich through huge unfunded borrowing;
    6) Is a fluent and pathological liar who will say absolutely anything to make himself popular with his target group;
    7) Is extremely stupid, having got 2 Es at A-level in the 1960s and failed a polytechnic course (he felt the need to lie about the latter as well);
    8) Cannot realistically be removed from office except by resignation.

    Now any reasonable person will spot 4-6 covers Johnson too, and you could make a case for 2 and a variant of 1. But the rest, Corbyn owns entirely.

    And until you understand that it is impossible for any reasonable person who has seen this side of his character to vote for him or any party that may support him, you are the one who will struggle to understand the result on election night.

    Boris Johnson is getting away with the political equivalent of murder because Corbyn is far, far, far worse.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    The LDs have doubled their vote share on 2017, they did very well in the K&S council elections last year, and it's a Remainiac seat.

    I'd be shocked, staggered, and surprised if Ed Davey lost his seat.
    Agreed Robert. It's the seat my brother lives in. Lifelong tory voter, but this time he's voting for Ed Davey. His comment was that he's fed up with the Conservatives, doesn't like Brexit which he thinks is a shambles, and likes Ed Davey.
    I used to live in Surbiton many years ago , indeed at the time Davey first won there by 52 votes . I switched from Labour to the Lib Dems and was very happy that my vote could have made all the difference . I’ve bumped into Davey a few times in the local shops, he’s a really nice guy , always willing to stop and chat.
    My brother has had similar experiences. Ed Davey's very popular in the constituency as a genuinely nice person and, in my brother's view, 'just a really good local MP.'

  • malcolmg said:

    Great plan for free broadband for all.

    About time too.

    It is just bollox, Labour would cock it up and we would end up back to the 70's when you waited up to a year just to get a shared telephone line. How do you think those donkeys will get 20 billion out of Google, facebook, etc. F***ing nutters.
    This is where the political genius of it comes in. Facebook will send Nick Clegg around the news studios to explain that Zuck needs to keep all the money for himself, and all the young lefties will remember why they don't vote LibDem.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

  • Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I didn't watch the video because I didn't want to bring up my breakfast.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In Scotland this election is relatively simple.

    Vote SCon if you believe in a United kingdom
    Vote SNP if you believe in an Independent Scotland part of the United States of Europe
    Vote SLib if you believe in revoking article 50

    Vote SLAB if you want to waste your vote!

    Isn't it:

    SCon if you believe in the UK and Brexit
    SNP if you want Scotland to leave the UK
    SLib if you believe in the UK and spend every waking moment hating the very thought of Brexit
    SLab if you believe that for too long government has been the preserve of the talented, and in future there should be equal opportunities irrespective of ability.
    Isn't it:

    SCon if you believe in the UK and Brexit
    SNP if you want Scotland to leave the UK
    SLib if you believe in the UK and spend every waking moment hating the very thought of Brexit - but if push comes to shove, you would cosy up with Labour and the SNP to facilitate the break up of the UK and some weird rambling renegotiation and revote on Brexit, if it meant even a sniff of power again
    SLab if you believe that for too long government has been the preserve of the talented, and in future there should be equal opportunities irrespective of ability
    No.
    Your minority view is noted.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    But she'll still vote Tory.

    Cuz Corbyn.
    She was from Harborough, a seat that will have quite an LD swing. Bosworth and Hinckley is the local main target, with Harborough second. The seat has been swinging demographically against the Tories for some time, but some way to go yet.
  • I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @rcs1000

    Am sure there are obvious holes in my nationalisation plan... can you rebut it please!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    In Surrey? Sadly, lots. There are too many from which they start at a low base.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Surrey
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking strategically Labour is dominating this campaign, and Brexit is barely being mentioned, even on Brexit obsessed PB. We have had threads where the B word has barely been mentioned.

    When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.

    I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.

    Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."

    But she'll still vote Tory.

    Cuz Corbyn.
    She was from Harborough, a seat that will have quite an LD swing. Bosworth and Hinckley is the local main target, with Harborough second. The seat has been swinging demographically against the Tories for some time, but some way to go yet.
    I tell you what, the aftermath of this election will be very interesting.

    To hang onto their new pseudo working class voter base the Tories will need to change their policy goals somewhat and theres no guarantee that Remainia ever comes back under those conditions.

    Imagine a GE with the majority of marginals in the home counties rather than in the ex industrial midlands?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    Cannock Chase, because they’re not standing.
  • Boris live on breakfast tv
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

    Nope. It is from the USA in the 1930s, but it hadn't reached these shores during my and Boris's childhood.
  • alex. said:

    At the moment doesn’t BT have a

    alex. said:

    Great plan for free broadband for all.

    About time too.

    Free computers as well? After all, the former is pretty useless without the latter...
    Broadband serves multiple devices, not only computers. Think of it as a free state service. How you tap into it will then be up to you.

    I've often thought it should be free. It will foster productivity and therefore for you capitalist-minded types, a great boon to the economy.
    And whichever device you use to tap into it, you still have to pay for it, right? So you are still retaining barriers to its use? What is the purpose of making it free? Who pays for the maintenance and future investment in the network if it’s all free? The general taxpayer? What happens when super super super fastplanitum diamond broadband comes along? Does the taxpayer pay for that? Because we’d be falling behind otherwise, right? Just imagine if a Govt had decided this policy should have been introduced in the early days of the internet? We’d be still plodding along at minute internet speeds and miles behind where we are today.

    The economic issue is not about broadband (basic, fast, super fast...) being free, it is about coverage/accessibility. Govt has a potential subsidy role in ensuring it reaches areas of the country that will not be delivered by the private sector (because they will not get a return on their investment). But once the coverage is available it should be the users who pay for its general upkeep and improvement. It’s just madness the whole thing. It’s not remotely “capitalist” to say so.

    And any remotely deep free trade agreement with the EU (which labour are most definitely claiming they want) will consider this to be state aid. It took three years to get permission for unviable exchange fttc intervention in rural areas and it was only done if open access was available to all suppliers and resellers.
  • That Ed Miliband free owls offer in 2015 looks pretty sharp compared to the bat sh1t crazy stuff coming out now from Labour.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

    Johnson quite clearly did NOT know the words.

    Any any parent will know those words if they ever do anything with their kids. Take them to parties, go swimming with them, those words are in play the whole time.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    TBH I couldn’t give a monkeys if he knows the words to this, baby shark or whatever. It is completely irrelevant. What we should expect is that he knows policies and details regarding Government policies, and he doesn’t which is not good. If his opposite number wasn’t Corbyn it would probably matter.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

    Johnson quite clearly did NOT know the words.

    Any any parent will know those words if they ever do anything with their kids. Take them to parties, go swimming with them, those words are in play the whole time.
    This is a man obsessed with buses to the extent he makes models of them.
  • TBH I couldn’t give a monkeys if he knows the words to this, baby shark or whatever. It is completely irrelevant. What we should expect is that he knows policies and details regarding Government policies, and he doesn’t which is not good. If his opposite number wasn’t Corbyn it would probably matter.

    Good post
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    TBH I couldn’t give a monkeys if he knows the words to this, baby shark or whatever. It is completely irrelevant. What we should expect is that he knows policies and details regarding Government policies, and he doesn’t which is not good. If his opposite number wasn’t Corbyn it would probably matter.
    We should also expect that he HAVE some policies, ones which are vaguely sane and realistic.

    But again, Corbyn is his get out of jail free card.

    Have a good morning. In order to do so, please do not think about the appalling choice facing the country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    alex. said:

    At the moment doesn’t BT have a

    alex. said:

    Great plan for free broadband for all.

    About time too.

    Free computers as well? After all, the former is pretty useless without the latter...
    Broadband serves multiple devices, not only computers. Think of it as a free state service. How you tap into it will then be up to you.

    I've often thought it should be free. It will foster productivity and therefore for you capitalist-minded types, a great boon to the economy.
    And whichever device you use to tap into it, you still have to pay for it, right? So you are still retaining barriers to its use? What is the purpose of making it free? Who pays for the maintenance and future investment in the network if it’s all free? The general taxpayer? What happens when super super super fastplanitum diamond broadband comes along? Does the taxpayer pay for that? Because we’d be falling behind otherwise, right? Just imagine if a Govt had decided this policy should have been introduced in the early days of the internet? We’d be still plodding along at minute internet speeds and miles behind where we are today.

    The economic issue is not about broadband (basic, fast, super fast...) being free, it is about coverage/accessibility. Govt has a potential subsidy role in ensuring it reaches areas of the country that will not be delivered by the private sector (because they will not get a return on their investment). But once the coverage is available it should be the users who pay for its general upkeep and improvement. It’s just madness the whole thing. It’s not remotely “capitalist” to say so.

    And any remotely deep free trade agreement with the EU (which labour are most definitely claiming they want) will consider this to be state aid. It took three years to get permission for unviable exchange fttc intervention in rural areas and it was only done if open access was available to all suppliers and resellers.
    That is the genius of the policy, it has Brexiteers arguing that we should Remain!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    TBH I couldn’t give a monkeys if he knows the words to this, baby shark or whatever. It is completely irrelevant.

    No it really isn't.

    Every single parent watching that will realise that Johnson is a bit of a shit.

    If they didn't already.

    Character matters. Otherwise you end up with a Richard Nixon or a Donald Trump. Or, indeed, a Boris Johnson.

    He's manifestly unsuited to be PM. But, as you rightly point out, the problem is the alternative. For most people Jeremy Corbyn is quite beyond the pale. And Jo Swinson? Untried and being marginalised by the broadcasters.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Can I ask if anyone here knows the likely affect of tactical voting on polls? Do we know if polls are good at picking up that sort of things / models are good at distributing votes in such a way? I'm looking at the trend on Britain Elects and it seems clear that many people who were willing to vote Lab pre EU elections have obviously switched to LD (despite the fact that Lab are now offering a second ref), and that to me just seems a function of the LDs looking like they can win certain seats now. But if those gains are concentrated in the seats LDs are likely to gain, will it negatively impact the national Labour vote that much?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    My predictions of 34 LibDem seats

    Bermondsey and Old Southwark
    Cambridge
    Carshalton and Wallington
    Cheadle
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Hazel Grove
    Kingston and Surbiton
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    North Norfolk
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    Portsmouth South
    Richmond Park
    Sheffield, Hallam
    Southport
    St Albans
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Thornbury and Yate
    Twickenham
    Wells
    Westmorland and Lonsdale
    Winchester
    Montgomeryshire
    Ceredigion
    Brecon and Radnorshire
    plus five in Scotland

    Wimbledon would be a bonus.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    TBH I couldn’t give a monkeys if he knows the words to this, baby shark or whatever. It is completely irrelevant.

    No it really isn't.

    Every single parent watching that will realise that Johnson is a bit of a shit.

    If they didn't already.

    Character matters. Otherwise you end up with a Richard Nixon or a Donald Trump. Or, indeed, a Boris Johnson.

    He's manifestly unsuited to be PM. But, as you rightly point out, the problem is the alternative. For most people Jeremy Corbyn is quite beyond the pale. And Jo Swinson? Untried and being marginalised by the broadcasters.
    Every single parent? Don’t think so somehow.
  • Jonathan said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

    Johnson quite clearly did NOT know the words.

    Any any parent will know those words if they ever do anything with their kids. Take them to parties, go swimming with them, those words are in play the whole time.
    This is a man obsessed with buses to the extent he makes models of them.
    That was just so that when you Googled 'Boris Bus' you'd get that rather than the £350million one.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Good morning comrades - What "free" giveaways have mad lefties got up their sleeve for us today :D
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195236741407313920?s=20

    So just to be clear about this for the blue luvvies on here this morning.

    4 by-election results in from last night. The Conservative share went down in all 4. They lost 3 of the 4 seats, two of them to huge swings to LibDems, and the SNP held the 4th comfortably.

    And you talk of landslides? Gents, this ain't no 1979.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    TBH I couldn’t give a monkeys if he knows the words to this, baby shark or whatever. It is completely irrelevant. What we should expect is that he knows policies and details regarding Government policies, and he doesn’t which is not good. If his opposite number wasn’t Corbyn it would probably matter.

    And that's the issue - we have the politicians we deserve now nobody sane will go near Politics. There are far easier ways to earn money.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195236741407313920?s=20

    So just to be clear about this for the blue luvvies on here this morning.

    4 by-election results in from last night. The Conservative share went down in all 4. They lost 3 of the 4 seats, two of them to huge swings to LibDems, and the SNP held the 4th comfortably.

    And you talk of landslides? Gents, this ain't no 1979.

    In none of those seats last night was the consequence Jeremy Corbyn as your PM.....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    MM you're a tory canvasser.

    And I'm not giving the game away about my canvassing results, not even when you're being that patronising. Not for the moment ;) All I will say is that I live in a marginal seat and it's very interesting out there.

    you are IOS and I claim my £5
  • Hi all. First post. A political betting related question..... Bet Victor have Labour on 6/4 on getting over 219.5 seats. Doesn’t that seem very good odds? The chances of labour worse than 219 is approaching con landslide territory.

    I don't think it is approaching a landslide. Consider...
    Labour 220
    SNP 45
    Liberal Democrat 30
    NI/Others 25
    Total non-Tory 320
    Conservatives 330
    Official majority of 10

    Labour have to be well under 200 for us to be approaching a landslide because there will be so many third party seats.
  • John McD on R4 Today talking about how far he will go with nationalisation.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The problem with Uxbridge & Ruislip is that the LibDems start from an incredible small base: like a lot of those other west London seats north of the river.

    Kingston & Surbiton looks pretty solid for Ed Davey by the way. My tip for the morning.

    To those going all Ad Hominem, my loathing for Boris Johnson and my desire to Remain in the EU transcends all party loyalty. I'd vote for Labour in a Con-Lab marginal and I'd vote for my party in a LibDem-Con marginal.

    If you don't get that, you won't get the outcome on election night.

    The LDs have doubled their vote share on 2017, they did very well in the K&S council elections last year, and it's a Remainiac seat.

    I'd be shocked, staggered, and surprised if Ed Davey lost his seat.
    Agreed Robert. It's the seat my brother lives in. Lifelong tory voter, but this time he's voting for Ed Davey. His comment was that he's fed up with the Conservatives, doesn't like Brexit which he thinks is a shambles, and likes Ed Davey.
    Now we know you are lying. NOBODY likes Ed Davey.....
    Well, Sarah Teather did.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Barnesian said:

    I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    My predictions of 34 LibDem seats

    Bermondsey and Old Southwark
    Cambridge
    Carshalton and Wallington
    Cheadle
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Hazel Grove
    Kingston and Surbiton
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    North Norfolk
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    Portsmouth South
    Richmond Park
    Sheffield, Hallam
    Southport
    St Albans
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Thornbury and Yate
    Twickenham
    Wells
    Westmorland and Lonsdale
    Winchester
    Montgomeryshire
    Ceredigion
    Brecon and Radnorshire
    plus five in Scotland

    Wimbledon would be a bonus.
    An eminently reasonable list.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Barnesian said:

    I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    My predictions of 34 LibDem seats

    Bermondsey and Old Southwark
    Cambridge
    Carshalton and Wallington
    Cheadle
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Hazel Grove
    Kingston and Surbiton
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    North Norfolk
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    Portsmouth South
    Richmond Park
    Sheffield, Hallam
    Southport
    St Albans
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Thornbury and Yate
    Twickenham
    Wells
    Westmorland and Lonsdale
    Winchester
    Montgomeryshire
    Ceredigion
    Brecon and Radnorshire
    plus five in Scotland

    Wimbledon would be a bonus.
    Those are not a bad start, but I would add South Cambs, and would expect some others across Wessex and the Thames Valley. There are other possibilities too such as Berwick.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Hi all. First post. A political betting related question..... Bet Victor have Labour on 6/4 on getting over 219.5 seats. Doesn’t that seem very good odds? The chances of labour worse than 219 is approaching con landslide territory.

    I don't think it is approaching a landslide. Consider...
    Labour 220
    SNP 45
    Liberal Democrat 30
    NI/Others 25
    Total non-Tory 320
    Conservatives 330
    Official majority of 10

    Labour have to be well under 200 for us to be approaching a landslide because there will be so many third party seats.
    Agreed.

    I'd currently favour the tories slightly higher with a majority of about 20-30 but I think with 4 weeks to go that may well narrow further and they may not get one at all.
  • Government Bonds for BT shares.

  • In none of those seats last night was the consequence Jeremy Corbyn as your PM.....

    This is true. OTOH if we get to polling day and the polls are still showing Con up 8 points over Lab then the voters won't be worrying about Jeremy Corbyn PM for that election either, will they?
  • John McD wobbling on what will happen to Virgin fibre and others.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

    Johnson quite clearly did NOT know the words.

    Any any parent will know those words if they ever do anything with their kids. Take them to parties, go swimming with them, those words are in play the whole time.
    I blame his Nanny.

    He probably knows all the words to "supercalifragilisticexpialidocious".

    In Latin.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,119
    edited November 2019

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195236741407313920?s=20

    So just to be clear about this for the blue luvvies on here this morning.

    4 by-election results in from last night. The Conservative share went down in all 4. They lost 3 of the 4 seats, two of them to huge swings to LibDems, and the SNP held the 4th comfortably.

    And you talk of landslides? Gents, this ain't no 1979.

    This one has cautioned against talk of landslides and I know only one poster on here who constantly refers to a landslide result

    This election could result in a hung parliament upto a majority conservative adminstration.

    The one constant in all this is the haemorrhaging of labour support across all four corners of the UK and it is going to be a very bad night for labour
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    John McD wobbling on what will happen to Virgin fibre and others.

    Presumably go bust with free competition!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    My predictions of 34 LibDem seats

    Bermondsey and Old Southwark
    Cambridge
    Carshalton and Wallington
    Cheadle
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Hazel Grove
    Kingston and Surbiton
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    North Norfolk
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    Portsmouth South
    Richmond Park
    Sheffield, Hallam
    Southport
    St Albans
    St Ives
    Sutton and Cheam
    Thornbury and Yate
    Twickenham
    Wells
    Westmorland and Lonsdale
    Winchester
    Montgomeryshire
    Ceredigion
    Brecon and Radnorshire
    plus five in Scotland

    Wimbledon would be a bonus.
    Those are not a bad start, but I would add South Cambs, and would expect some others across Wessex and the Thames Valley. There are other possibilities too such as Berwick.
    And whatever MM tries to convince you, Totnes is in play for Sarah Wollaston. There are lots of others that I think may go yellow. Guildford is a real possibility.

    You've also missed some London seats from the list. Islington South looks very good as a LibDem gain from Labour.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/12/emily-thornberry-risk-losing-seat-lib-dems-amid-fears-labour/
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What's the backstory on why Britain hasn't already got broadband in the first place? I mean, the poles are already there, they just have to run fiber along them, no? If they can't manage this how did the British ever manage to get telephones?

    I think the problem is that we're getting rid of the Poles, and that's making it harder to deploy broadband.
    Did Labour not Czech they would have a workforce before making this latest pledge?
    If you want an alternative route there are always Swedes.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    On topic - if Labour lose big at the election, and working on the asumption that Corbyn steps down, I`ve been looking at the timing of his departure for betting purposes.

    The last Labour Party leader process worked as follows:

    - 13 May 2015 NEC sets out timetable
    - time for nominations
    - time for hustings
    - ballot papers produced and distributed
    - 1 month window to vote (to 10th September 2015)
    - results announced 12th September (I remember that day - I was painting the cobbledash of my parents` bungalow, listening to the results with my head in my hands).

    In summary, the process took 4 Months to elect a new leader. If he announced wish to step down on 13th December, and assuming a week for NEC to set up their meeting to decide timetable, this would take us to 20th April for a new leader to be installed.

    Corbyn, I argue, would remain leader until a replacement is elected. And Betfair rules state that an acting leader is still counted as the leader.

    I draw the following conclusions, but would appreciate your comments on my logic. All bets are with Betfair:

    - Corbyn departure date 10/19 - 12/19 - clear LAY at 3.55
    - April - June 2020 - BET 7.2
    - July 2020 or later - BET 5.4
    - 2020 or later - BET 1.36
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614


    In none of those seats last night was the consequence Jeremy Corbyn as your PM.....

    This is true. OTOH if we get to polling day and the polls are still showing Con up 8 points over Lab then the voters won't be worrying about Jeremy Corbyn PM for that election either, will they?
    They will go into the polling booth remembering that exit poll in 2017 and still think "oo-er...."
  • John McD wobbling on what will happen to Virgin fibre and others.

    I wonder if this will turn out like US healthcare where everybody hates their insurance provider but they're still terrified of losing them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Jonathan said:

    This daily Mail negative campaign is relentless, wonder if they will bring out the comments about Boris fitness from Gove, May et al.
    I would not be surprised to see a labour backing paper do just that, it seems a good idea.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Here’s an interesting one then. When Labour lose here, and leadership vacancy comes up, the incoming leader has to put anti semitism as doorstep issue to bed ASAP. So, Ed Milliband for leader. His selling point is Elder Statesman, bridging the PLP gap, Jewish decent. His platform is what is written on the Ed Stone, investment borrowing policy apparently to destroy the UK, that is sane compared to what Tory’s and Labour promising to do in 2019!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195236741407313920?s=20

    So just to be clear about this for the blue luvvies on here this morning.

    4 by-election results in from last night. The Conservative share went down in all 4. They lost 3 of the 4 seats, two of them to huge swings to LibDems, and the SNP held the 4th comfortably.

    And you talk of landslides? Gents, this ain't no 1979.


    The one constant in all this is the haemorrhaging of labour support across all four corners of the UK and it is going to be a very bad night for labour
    Sorry but I'm not even convinced that's true. I think the Labour vote will hold up in unexpected places.

    And I fully expect the Labour uptick in the polls to continue as birds come home to roost.

    Remember, that for Labour voters Brexit really isn't the biggest deal. We had all this blue working class guff in 2017.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195236741407313920?s=20

    So just to be clear about this for the blue luvvies on here this morning.

    4 by-election results in from last night. The Conservative share went down in all 4. They lost 3 of the 4 seats, two of them to huge swings to LibDems, and the SNP held the 4th comfortably.

    And you talk of landslides? Gents, this ain't no 1979.

    The one constant in all this is the haemorrhaging of labour support across all four corners of the UK and it is going to be a very bad night for labour
    I thought so too initially, but seeing the response of the public when Johnson goes on tour is quite illuminating. Those WWC CDE voters may want Brexit, and loathe Corbyn, but they seem to dislike the scruffy smirking shit magnet of a PM too.
  • I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    In Surrey? Sadly, lots. There are too many from which they start at a low base.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Surrey
    No, nationwide.

    Even where the LDs have stood down it’s certain the winning MPs will caucus with Jo Swinson’s yellow army regardless of the banner under which they stand.

    There’s only one serious national leader in Britain at this seminal moment, and she’ll sweep all before her with her inspirational leadership.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

    Johnson quite clearly did NOT know the words.

    Any any parent will know those words if they ever do anything with their kids. Take them to parties, go swimming with them, those words are in play the whole time.
    I blame his Nanny.

    He probably knows all the words to "supercalifragilisticexpialidocious".

    In Latin.
    Johnson's not as bright as he'd like his wives fan club to think he is.

    His 2:1 has always irked him but there's a reason for it. Cut through the bluster and there's not a lot underneath.

    Except a huge cock, obvs.
  • kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    This daily Mail negative campaign is relentless, wonder if they will bring out the comments about Boris fitness from Gove, May et al.
    I would not be surprised to see a labour backing paper do just that, it seems a good idea.
    Given who buys those papers, they will be preaching to the converted rather than changing minds.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195236741407313920?s=20

    So just to be clear about this for the blue luvvies on here this morning.

    4 by-election results in from last night. The Conservative share went down in all 4. They lost 3 of the 4 seats, two of them to huge swings to LibDems, and the SNP held the 4th comfortably.

    And you talk of landslides? Gents, this ain't no 1979.

    The one constant in all this is the haemorrhaging of labour support across all four corners of the UK and it is going to be a very bad night for labour
    I thought so too initially, but seeing the response of the public when Johnson goes on tour is quite illuminating. Those WWC CDE voters may want Brexit, and loathe Corbyn, but they seem to dislike the scruffy smirking shit magnet of a PM too.
    Spot on.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    egg: "Here’s an interesting one then. When Labour lose here, and leadership vacancy comes up, the incoming leader has to put anti semitism as doorstep issue to bed ASAP. So, Ed Milliband for leader. His selling point is Elder Statesman, bridging the PLP gap, Jewish decent. His platform is what is written on the Ed Stone, investment borrowing policy apparently to destroy the UK, that is sane compared to what Tory’s and Labour promising to do in 2019!"

    It seems to me that LP has a bee its bonnet about electing a female leader next time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Not being technological, I don't really understand how BT purports to deliver me superfast fibre broadband along the very old telephone cable attached to the side of my house?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019

    I think some of the Surrey near-marginals are in play. Outside flutters on Guildford and Woking. The latter went very yellow at the European Elections and I know people there who think it's turning LibDem.

    There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.

    I think the only question is which seats the LDs won’t take.
    In Surrey? Sadly, lots. There are too many from which they start at a low base.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Surrey
    No, nationwide.

    Even where the LDs have stood down it’s certain the winning MPs will caucus with Jo Swinson’s yellow army regardless of the banner under which they stand.

    There’s only one serious national leader in Britain at this seminal moment, and she’ll sweep all before her with her inspirational leadership.
    Are you serious or sarcastic?
  • egg said:

    Here’s an interesting one then. When Labour lose here, and leadership vacancy comes up, the incoming leader has to put anti semitism as doorstep issue to bed ASAP. So, Ed Milliband for leader. His selling point is Elder Statesman, bridging the PLP gap, Jewish decent. His platform is what is written on the Ed Stone, investment borrowing policy apparently to destroy the UK, that is sane compared to what Tory’s and Labour promising to do in 2019!

    Labour could do worse but it has to be a woman next
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    This daily Mail negative campaign is relentless, wonder if they will bring out the comments about Boris fitness from Gove, May et al.
    I would not be surprised to see a labour backing paper do just that, it seems a good idea.
    I hate the way journalists undermine themselves with such extreme partisan, almost cartoonish stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    I think the 37% favourable rating for Boris Johnson is about where the Tories voteshare will end up. Interesting though that Swinson on 24% has a higher favourable rating than Corbyn on 22%, if Swinson gets in all the debates and wins her legal challenge to do so Labour could be in real danger of falling to third on voteshare if Swinson shines
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Government Bonds for BT shares.

    It’s the new orthodoxy. Printing money = bad. “Real” borrowing = dubious. Printed borrowing = unlimited source of funding with no downside risk.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Stocky said:

    On topic - if Labour lose big at the election, and working on the asumption that Corbyn steps down, I`ve been looking at the timing of his departure for betting purposes.

    The last Labour Party leader process worked as follows:

    - 13 May 2015 NEC sets out timetable
    - time for nominations
    - time for hustings
    - ballot papers produced and distributed
    - 1 month window to vote (to 10th September 2015)
    - results announced 12th September (I remember that day - I was painting the cobbledash of my parents` bungalow, listening to the results with my head in my hands).

    In summary, the process took 4 Months to elect a new leader. If he announced wish to step down on 13th December, and assuming a week for NEC to set up their meeting to decide timetable, this would take us to 20th April for a new leader to be installed.

    Corbyn, I argue, would remain leader until a replacement is elected. And Betfair rules state that an acting leader is still counted as the leader.

    I draw the following conclusions, but would appreciate your comments on my logic. All bets are with Betfair:

    - Corbyn departure date 10/19 - 12/19 - clear LAY at 3.55
    - April - June 2020 - BET 7.2
    - July 2020 or later - BET 5.4
    - 2020 or later - BET 1.36

    I would go for Sept 20, at the party conference. If Labour lose big enough that there is a Tory majority, then there is no urgency. If hung parliament, Jezza will count that as victory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Really? That's what we're going with? Boris is a duplicitous, bumbling toad of a man who we unfortunately have as PM, but that's what we should focus on?

    Besides, anyone attacked as not being of the people can always retort they are for the people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    No, shit dad. I am a bloke with only three children, and I know hundreds of verses of the wheels on the bus. I also know how to use a mop and a microwave. I can even change a nappy. Real men know how to do all these things.
    If you look at the video he does know the words (although he is clearly thinking WTF am I doing this for).

    He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements
    I would imagine most people learn the words as children not as dads.

    Johnson quite clearly did NOT know the words.

    Any any parent will know those words if they ever do anything with their kids. Take them to parties, go swimming with them, those words are in play the whole time.
    I blame his Nanny.

    He probably knows all the words to "supercalifragilisticexpialidocious".

    In Latin.
    Johnson's not as bright as he'd like his wives fan club to think he is.

    His 2:1 has always irked him but there's a reason for it. Cut through the bluster and there's not a lot underneath.

    Except a huge cock, obvs.
    Blair and Thatcher also had seconds as did Attlee. Only Wilson, Cameron, Eden, Brown and Macmillan (though only in his first year before he dropped out) of post-war PMs have got 1sts
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    John McD wobbling on what will happen to Virgin fibre and others.

    Of course he is.

    It's a bloody stupid idea.

    On the by elections from last night, it is clear the Tories will have to re-gain some remainers from the libdems or they can forget about a workable majority.
This discussion has been closed.