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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting polling’s bad for LAB but Corbyn’s ratings are even
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting polling’s bad for LAB but Corbyn’s ratings are even worse
Above is the Wikipedia list of all the published polls since the general election campaign began. The overall picture is of not that much variation with the Tories in a range of 37-42%, LAB 27-31% and the LDs 15-17%.
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Fwiw, probably nothing, I've still overheard just the one person talking about the election, saying he'd opened a bottle of wine. I did not hear enough to discover if that was to celebrate or drown his sorrows.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1195104135030464513?s=20
This translates as swings of:
SCon to SNP circa 6 points
SLab to SNP circa 8 points
SNP to SLD circa 1 point
As far a leader ratings are concerned, I haven’t seen any Scottish ones for ages, but they have been pretty stable for years. Ruth Davidson was the only Unionist leader ever in positive territory, and even then in was only slightly over the zero mark; Sturgeon is always hovering around the neutral mark too. The rest (Leonard, Rennie, Johnson and Corbyn) are deep, deep into negative territory. From memory the last Johnson and Corbyn ratings were about -65.
The question mark is how is Swinson doing? Probably quite well? Around the Sturgeon/Davidson range?
That Corbyn support has evaporated like snow off a dyke in April. They are all incandescent with rage at how he has handled the key IndyRef2 issue, and less-importantly Brexit. Not only has he been far too sympathetic to both, but he has flip-flopped badly. If a leader is going to make an unpopular decision, they must make it and then stick to their guns, not change the story every time they talk to a journalist.
This wouldn’t matter so much if Richard Leonard was remotely competent. He isn’t.
SLab are not in a happy place, and voters sense that.
SCon 3/4
SNP 11/10
SLab 50/1
SLD 100/1
https://twitter.com/ChrisLeslieMP/status/1195106186577793027?s=20
And for the love of god, will somebody try to get the message through that evil “shareholders” are every single person with a private pension fund. And indirectly actually every single person in the country, given that this includes “funded” public sector pension schemes eg Local Govt etc.
Labour intends to destroy shareholder value on the one hand, and indeed destroy bond holder value as well by basically “printing” Govt bonds to “pay” for everything. What is there left for pension schemes to invest in?
Why will voters turn out in December to elect a Brexit-ambivalent Jeremy Corbyn?
Free Broadband?
About time too.
Labour are making all the running in this election campaign. I was chatting to someone last night who reckons the mood in the country is turning against the Conservatives.
I didn't watch BBCQT but apparently Cleverly was taken down by a pretty feral mood?
You really need to go and canvass for Labour.
I've often thought it should be free. It will foster productivity and therefore for you capitalist-minded types, a great boon to the economy.
Oh, I wouldn't be too sure about that ... millions of voters are likely to be confused, perplexed, angry even that a so-called democratic and liberal party have denied what it says on the can by promising to revoke Article 50, just like that, without even so much as a second referendum, offering a leave option which was voted for by a majority, totalling in excess of 17 million.
Nothing very democratic or liberal about that, which probably largely explains the sharp decline in the party's fortunes over the past few weeks and why the likes of the spread-betting firms have chopped their prices for LD seats by around 25% from the high forties then to the mid thirties now ... shame really, it was looking so positive for them just a few weeks ago.
Were you talking to yourself last night by any chance?
Some of the lampooning of Corbyn in the right-wing press is plainly ridiculous.
The debates are very dangerous for Johnson. If there's anyone watching who actually reads the Daily Mail the only way for Corbyn will be up.
But you're right, it's Labour that Labour voters will vote for. They may do so through gritted teeth, but they will.
This has been another rubbish campaign by the tories. 9 years in office and they are tired, bereft of any ideas and they only have one drum to beat. I am increasingly sensing it won't be enough to get them over the line.
Indeed, anything above around 31-32 is incredibly difficult for the LDs, unless there is a major shift from Labour.
On the basis of these headlines it is quite safe to have a Labour government, as the troops will keep the Leader in line. 😅
To everyone else, however, I will say this. I try to be objective and see the good in different parties. I'm not a partisan. Some of what the Conservatives have brought to the table in recent years has been excellent, although much hasn't. I don't believe in Brexit but that doesn't mean I think the EU is perfect.
What gets my goat is the way the right-wing media lampoon Corbyn and Labour when they're actually making all the running with some great ideas. Not all. Some of them are wild.
Most of all, though, like most posters on here I see through Boris Johnson and loathe him. He's a shyster and a crook.
It may be beautiful down here, but there always has been much poverty in Devon and Cornwall. That the Labour vote has collapsed down here should give you more to think about than one guy who reckons the mood in the country is changing.
As I say, go and knock on some doors with a Labour rosette on. Report back on the mood of your bit of the country when you have. We'll be fascinated by your candid reaction.
And I'm not giving the game away about my canvassing results, not even when you're being that patronising. Not for the moment
Goodness, how interesting. You are living proof that support for Corbyn transcends the old tribal loyalties and I will certainly look at him with new eyes after reading your post. I am X, but party Y's views are winning me over is a thing that astroturfers never say. Ever.
TBF fiber to all the buildings in the country does sound like it fits this description, and I'd imagine it's more efficient to say, "OK, we're doing this street on Thursday up to any house that wants it" rather than building everything out piecemeal when somebody manages to sell each house a contract. It's also pretty much how Britain does sewage, IIUC: You don't traditionally shop around then contract with a sewage provider who then works out how get a sewer to your home. You just assume everybody wants to flush their toilet.
That said, like I say I don't really understand why Britain hasn't already got fiber everywhere in the first place, so I can't say whether this idea would fix it.
Dead ones.
Oh, and we have one of the most digitised societies going and yet somehow nobody here thinks the government should own and run the broadband - last week's political satire programme had a bit on what a government designed iPad would look like (statsPad), after a politician suggested taking on the Big Tech guys with state sponsored tech development - Labour are crazy to be suggesting ideas from the 1840s to solve problems of the 2020s but more such ideas should help prevent any risk of Corbyn being PM so have at it Labour.
It also needs Amazon etc to make clear how many thousand jobs would be lost if Labour's Tec Tax goes ahead. People might not be so keen if they realised it would mean an end to cheap next day delivery. The snowflakes might have to get off their arses and learn how to walk to shops to purchase something, if of course there are any shops left!
Let's lay off the personal stuff, the partisan, and discuss the politics.
I like the way Labour are producing all the ideas. Do correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't heard a single one from the tories. Except 'Get Brexit Done' which Deborah Meaden has just demolished.
So there's a case for government intervention to do something differently, but Labour's new policy overeggs it by going for free broadband, and then they have a credibility problem because Corbyn isn't able to manage his own party - how is he going to manage free fibre broadband on top of saving the NHS and all the other radical promises?
Sigh.
Whether it's enough to unseat an unpopular Stephen Hammond, time will tell but it's still game on here.
Nationally, things look very grim for Labour.
I remember a Johnson anecdote from when he was still married some years ago. His wife was struggling valiently to keep order with 4 young children in a pizza restaurant. BoZo was reading his paper and ignoring the chaos. He hasn't changed.
That's all I shall say on it for now
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195238754606141441?s=21
The economic issue is not about broadband (basic, fast, super fast...) being free, it is about coverage/accessibility. Govt has a potential subsidy role in ensuring it reaches areas of the country that will not be delivered by the private sector (because they will not get a return on their investment). But once the coverage is available it should be the users who pay for its general upkeep and improvement. It’s just madness the whole thing. It’s not remotely “capitalist” to say so.
I mean, what kind of parent doesn't know the words to the Wheels on the Bus?
He's a shyster and a crook.
Vote SCon if you believe in a United kingdom
Vote SNP if you believe in an Independent Scotland part of the United States of Europe
Vote SLib if you believe in revoking article 50
Vote SLAB if you want to waste your vote!
F1: checked the forecast a few days ago and rain seemed possible for first practice. I'll give that another look when I have a chance, but could be opportunity there.
That BetVictor number is a steal. Pile on.
* All forecasts are subject to revision. I reserve the right to only quote the most accurate forecast in post-election posts.
This is not fertile ground for you, because the people dim enough to be taken in by you are the most entrenched ones. Is astroturfing like being a PPC and if you make a good enough fist of it here you get a plum gig like mumsnet next time round?
“It’s unacceptable that companies are not funding pensions appropriately. They are welshing on their obligations to look after the oldest and poorest among us.”
Solution: government will take on all pension liabilities for private sector companies. They will receive all assets backing these schemes. Any unfunded liabilities will be valued on a insurance buyout basis (which usually makes the liability appear much larger than it will be). Companies will pay the government for taking on these liabilities by the issuance of new shares at the current share price (with an adjustment mechanism so additional shares are issued if the price falls in the next 12 months.
Result:
- government takes on huge liability but this will he paid out over time
- They get all the assets in corporate pensions schemes (lots of equities)
- They get to buy in the companies based on a depressed share price with the largest possible liability defined
- Sell it as “protecting pensioners from the likes of Philip Green”
As a LibDem, I'd prefer a major shift to Labour and a reduction in LibDem seats to an overall majority for Johnson. It is more important to stop Brexit than maximise LibDem seats.
Firstly, it won't be "free". We'll still pay, but through taxes rather than bills.
Secondly, what about people who don't want the allegedly free package? What if they want a more basic service (as they don't stream videos etc - just use email) or do not want it at all?
Thirdly, what do businesses do? The plan is presumably for households, but do businesses requiring dedicated, high capacity services also go via this nationalised business, and how does the pricing work?
Fourthly, the cost high speed broadband to the final couple of percent in very rural, hard to reach areas is astronomical. Is it really worth it? To a large extent, living in those areas is a choice - the broadband isn't as good, but there are other benefits and a lot of people just don't care about video streaming.
Fifthly, what evidence is there that the Government would run this more effectively than the private sector, that they'd be quicker at rolling out infrastructure or fixing faults?
When the Tories chuck a dead cat on the table, Labour chuck on a dead Lion. They are bonkers yet genius.
I think LDs are doing well by looking the only grown ups in the room, and that is playing well particularly in Southern Remania.
Anecdata of the day. Posh County-set lady in her sixties in my clinic yesterday, I booked a follow up appointment in the Spring. Her spontaneous response: " If we have an NHS after Brexit..."
There may be some other tory seats that are vulnerable. I'm not convinced Esher & Walton is totally safe. Even Epsom & Ewell could see a big swing.
Your posts read like something authored by Aaron Bastani of Novara media
Any idea you are not a fully paid up member of the Jeremy Corbyn fan club is for the birds
And yet such a person is still more credible than Corbyn.
SCon if you believe in the UK and Brexit
SNP if you want Scotland to leave the UK
SLib if you believe in the UK and spend every waking moment hating the very thought of Brexit
SLab if you believe that for too long government has been the preserve of the talented, and in future there should be equal opportunities irrespective of ability.
Good job they haven't made the same mist...ah.
He doesn’t know / isn’t doing the hand movements