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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance

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    blueblue said:


    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?

    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Would you like to tell us when the UK last had a trade surplus ?
    Do you think Brexit will mean we will have a trade surplus? I am fasinated how you think the economy will improve by implementing Brexit! Do you think for instance we will be exporting more cars or selling more "widgets" into the single market? Or perhaps we will corner the market in derivative trading to undeveloped countries? Really, what is the plan?
    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trade strategy the UK has been pursuing during that period has been less than suitable for the UK economy.

    And your mindset is to do nothing but continue to reinforce this failure.

    Now if you want to know what I would suggest its that the UK should live within its means.

    Now that's a scary concept for all those who want to live in the manner they think they're entitled to but can't actually afford.
    Did anything happen in 1997 that could explain the UK subsequently not living within its means?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    blueblue said:


    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?

    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Would you like to tell us when the UK last had a trade surplus ?
    Do you think Brexit will mean we will have a trade surplus? I am fasinated how you think the economy will improve by implementing Brexit! Do you think for instance we will be exporting more cars or selling more "widgets" into the single market? Or perhaps we will corner the market in derivative trading to undeveloped countries? Really, what is the plan?
    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is was in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trade strategy the UK has been pursuing during that period has been less than suitable for the UK economy.

    And your mindset is to do nothing but continue to reinforce this failure.

    Now if you want to know what I would suggest its that the UK should live within its means.

    Now that's a scary concept for all those who want to live in the manner they think they're entitled to but can't actually afford.
    Wait a second... what's so wrong with having a trade deficit? There are good and bad aspects to running a trade deficit.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    blueblue said:


    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?

    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Would you like to tell us when the UK last had a trade surplus ?
    Do you think Brexit will mean we will have a trade surplus? I am fasinated how you think the economy will improve by implementing Brexit! Do you think for instance we will be exporting more cars or selling more "widgets" into the single market? Or perhaps we will corner the market in derivative trading to undeveloped countries? Really, what is the plan?
    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trade strategy the UK has been pursuing during that period has been less than suitable for the UK economy.

    And your mindset is to do nothing but continue to reinforce this failure.

    Now if you want to know what I would suggest its that the UK should live within its means.

    Now that's a scary concept for all those who want to live in the manner they think they're entitled to but can't actually afford.
    I did not say I did not know. Like your strawberry posts, I don't feel compelled to dance to your tune! :wink:

    Living within our means is great but what do you mean? Exchange controls, import substution industries, taxing people more so they have less disposable income? Please enlighten me!
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    *** Betting Post ***

    I see that SkyBet now has Doncaster North at Lab 1/10 in from 1/2.

    By contrast N, P & C still has Labour at 1/3.
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    Artist said:
    I remember when that guy was a Tory and touted as the telegenic future for them. He used to do stuff like the Wright Show all the time.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Artist said:
    I remember when that guy was a Tory and touted as the telegenic future for them. He used to do stuff like the Wright Show all the time.
    Telegenic? He looks like a melted candle.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:

    Artist said:
    I remember when that guy was a Tory and touted as the telegenic future for them. He used to do stuff like the Wright Show all the time.
    Telegenic? He looks like a melted candle.
    I know now. I am not sure what happened.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:


    Fair enough Kle4. I'm in a safe Tory seat like you, so it wouldn't really matter any way, but if I really had tol of his past associations.

    nt things...
    it's a life time of anti British and t.
    It amuses me that his terrorist connections keep being highlighted in the Tory/Brexit supporting media. It may have passed you by but the British Government was in talks with the IRA in the 1970s, 1980s and the 1990s. The DUP went into Government with Sinn Fein FFS! I have no doubt at all that many of the people Corbyn has been viewed associating himself with will also have been in dialogue with the very people the terrorist's are running a campaign of violence against.
    the UK has survived left-wing Governments in the past and even Churchill accepted the radical socialist policies of the Atlee Government in 1950 and 1951.

    I find the project fear around Corbyn as having parity with project fear around Brexit. If their is nothing to fear about Brexit as Leavers maintain why is Corbyn anymore of a threat?
    There is a pretty big difference between talking with an opponent and acting as a supporter. You can't claim Corbyn was just acting as a negotiator when he was wreath-laying at the graves of terrorists. Especially when he refused to meet with Chukka Umunna.
    I did not say he was a negotiator or supporting them. I was simply saying that he associated with people. The Tory/Brexit supporting media have an agenda, they see Corbyn as a threat. I see it for what it is and that's newspapers trying to steer public opinion. They see what has worked against previous leaders in the past and try and frame the current Labour leader with the same negative coverage i.e. waring a donkey jacket for reembrace day etc...
    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?
    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Brexit enables us to do our own trade policy, give the NHS money saved from the EU, control our own borders etc and it is certainly less drastic than the nationalism of say Bolsonaro, Modi, Salvini, Trump etc arising in much of the rest of the world.

    As for the union, the SNP are still polling below 2015 levels which was before the Brexit vote
    Unbelievable that you votd Remain then. Weren't you concenttrating?
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    blueblue said:


    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?

    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Would you like to tell us when the UK last had a trade surplus ?
    Do you think Brexit will mean we will have a trade surplus? I am fasinated how you think the economy will improve by implementing Brexit! Do you think for instance we will be exporting more cars or selling more "widgets" into the single market? Or perhaps we will corner the market in derivative trading to undeveloped countries? Really, what is the plan?
    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trade strategy the UK has been pursuing during that period has been less than suitable for the UK economy.

    And your mindset is to do nothing but continue to reinforce this failure.

    Now if you want to know what I would suggest its that the UK should live within its means.

    Now that's a scary concept for all those who want to live in the manner they think they're entitled to but can't actually afford.
    I did not say I did not know. Like your strawberry posts, I don't feel compelled to dance to your tune! :wink:

    Living within our means is great but what do you mean? Exchange controls, import substution industries, taxing people more so they have less disposable income? Please enlighten me!
    As the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are determined to live beyond their means then less free trade is what we require.

    Now I wouldn't want extra bureaucratic methods as a barrier to entry but I think its time tariffs were looked at to make UK produce more competitive.

    We could start with a big increase in air passenger duty for example which would have the added benefit of being environmentally sound.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    There are 16,500,000 Remainers out there. If they weren't motivated before today's announcement you can be sure they will be now.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    blueblue said:


    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?

    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Would you like to tell us when the UK last had a trade surplus ?
    Do you think Brexit will mean we will have a trade surplus? I am fasinated how you think the economy will improve by implementing Brexit! Do you think for instance we will be exporting more cars or selling more "widgets" into the single market? Or perhaps we will corner the market in derivative trading to undeveloped countries? Really, what is the plan?
    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trade strategy the UK has been pursuing during that period has been less than suitable for the UK economy.

    And your mindset is to do nothing but continue to reinforce this failure.

    Now if you want to know what I would suggest its that the UK should live within its means.

    Now that's a scary concept for all those who want to live in the manner they think they're entitled to but can't actually afford.
    I did not say I did not know. Like your strawberry posts, I don't feel compelled to dance to your tune! :wink:

    Living within our means is great but what do you mean? Exchange controls, import substution industries, taxing people more so they have less disposable income? Please enlighten me!
    As the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are determined to live beyond their means then less free trade is what we require.

    Now I wouldn't want extra bureaucratic methods as a barrier to entry but I think its time tariffs were looked at to make UK produce more competitive.

    We could start with a big increase in air passenger duty for example which would have the added benefit of being environmentally sound.
    Tariffs would be reciprocated and make UK exports less competitive.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    blueblue said:


    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?

    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Would you like to tell us when the UK last had a trade surplus ?
    Do you think Brexit gle market? Or perhaps we will corner the market in derivative trading to undeveloped countries? Really, what is the plan?
    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trad
    I did not say I did not know. Like your strawberry posts, I don't feel compelled to dance to your tune! :wink:

    Living within our means is great but what do you mean? Exchange controls, import substution industries, taxing people more so they have less disposable income? Please enlighten me!
    As the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are determined to live beyond their means then less free trade is what we require.

    Now I wouldn't want extra bureaucratic methods as a barrier to entry but I think its time tariffs were looked at to make UK produce more competitive.

    We could start with a big increase in air passenger duty for example which would have the added benefit of being environmentally sound.
    If the UK puts trade barriers up or tarrifs, other countries will reprocate with similar measures. We will be no better off. The UK has always been a trading nation in the last few hundred years at least. You are entitled to your view and I have some sympathy for air passanger tax increase. However, you seem to be saying we should stop people doing x and y all the time. You might be very UK centric, do not like going abroad, eating exotic food, wearing clothes from other countries or generally embracing activity not associated with UK economic activity. That is great for you but it is not really realistic to project your lifestyle choices onto the rest of the population. The world economy is going to become more interlinked and people will engage in more transnational economic activity not less. A trade surplus can equally be achieved by success rather than limiting choice and creating failure.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Roger said:

    There are 16,500,000 Remainers out there. If they weren't motivated before today's announcement you can be sure they will be now.

    and on the flip side, is there a slight danger of complacency settling in among softer Leave voters who may be a little confused as to the message this sends about voting Conservative
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,020
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:


    Fair enough Kle4. I'm in a safe Tory seat like you, so it wouldn't really matter any way, but if I really had tol of his past associations.

    nt things...
    it's a life time of anti British and t.
    It amuses me that his ter

    As I previously made the point on the previous thread, more of a threat?
    There is a pretty big difference between talking ukka Umunna.
    I did not say he was a negotiator or supporting them. I was simply saying that he associated with people. The Tory/Brexit supporting media have an race day etc...
    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - rd of all these things?
    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Brexit enables us to do our own trade policy, give the NHS money saved from the EU, control our own borders etc and it is certainly less drastic than the nationalism of say Bolsonaro, Modi, Salvini, Trump etc arising in much of the rest of the world.

    As for the union, the SNP are still polling below 2015 levels which was before the Brexit vote
    Our own trade policy without agreement of rolling over existing agreements negotiated by the EU means we dont have a policy with a heck of a lot of countries!

    If the UK economy is smaller than would have been the case by remaining in the EU, your not really saving money as economic activity in the UK is taxed and that revenue falls if economic activity is reduced.

    The SNP are campaigning for another vote, it will gather steam until it becomes inevitable due to Brexit.
    Once we get our own trade deals that will boost our economy and be negotiated on our own terms.

    There is no evidence whatsoever other than wishful thinking from diehard Remainer fanatics like you to whinge about Brexit has made the slightest difference to the prospect of Scottish independence, hence the SNP are still polling even below what they got in 2015 before the Brexit vote. Plus of course if he wins a majority Boris will block indyref2 anyway, Spain's tough line on Catalonia means Boris has free reign to follow suit and anything bar sending in the riot police and soldiers to fire rubber bullets at Nats in Glasgow looks reasonable in comparison to what Madrid is doing and indeed Beijing is doing in Hong Kong. Sturgeon should be grateful Boris will not follow Madrid's lead and arrest her for sedition
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,020
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:


    Fair enough Kle4. I'm in a safe Tory seat like you, so it wouldn't really matter any way, but if I really had tol of his past associations.

    nt things...
    it's a life time of anti British and t.
    It amuses me that his terrorist connections keep being highlighted in the Tory/Brexit supporting media. It may have passed you by but the British Government was in in 1950 and 1951.

    I find the project fear around Corbyn as having parity with project fear around Brexit. If their is nothing to fear about Brexit as Leavers maintain why is Corbyn anymore of a threat?
    There is a pretty big difference between talking with an opponent and acting as a supporter. You can't claim Corbyn was just acting as a negotiator when he was wreath-laying at the graves of terrorists. Especially when he refused to meet with Chukka Umunna.
    I did not say he was a negotiator or supporting them. I was simply saying that he associated with people. The Tory/Brexit supporting media have an agenda, they see Corbyn as a threat. I see it for what it is and that's newspapers trying to steer public opinion. They see what has worked against previous leaders in the past and try and frame the current Labour leader with the same negative coverage i.e. waring a donkey jacket for reembrace day etc...
    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?
    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Brexit enables us to do our own trade policy, give the NHS money saved from the EU, control our own borders etc and it is certainly less drastic than the nationalism of say Bolsonaro, Modi, Salvini, Trump etc arising in much of the rest of the world.

    As for the union, the SNP are still polling below 2015 levels which was before the Brexit vote
    Unbelievable that you votd Remain then. Weren't you concenttrating?
    I respect democracy and want to make Brexit work
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    Noo said:

    blueblue said:


    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - he's an intellectually-challenged, far-left, anti-British clown. Did the "biased evil Tory MSM" make up his multi-decade track record of all these things?

    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Would you like to tell us when the UK last had a trade surplus ?
    Do you think Brexit will mean we will have a trade surplus? I am fasinated how you think the economy will improve by implementing Brexit! Do you think for instance we will be exporting more cars or selling more "widgets" into the single market? Or perhaps we will corner the market in derivative trading to undeveloped countries? Really, what is the plan?
    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trade strategy the UK has been pursuing during that period has been less than suitable for the UK economy.

    And your mindset is to do nothing but continue to reinforce this failure.

    Now if you want to know what I would suggest its that the UK should live within its means.

    Now that's a scary concept for all those who want to live in the manner they think they're entitled to but can't actually afford.
    I did not say I did not know. Like your strawberry posts, I don't feel compelled to dance to your tune! :wink:

    Living within our means is great but what do you mean? Exchange controls, import substution industries, taxing people more so they have less disposable income? Please enlighten me!
    As the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are determined to live beyond their means then less free trade is what we require.

    Now I wouldn't want extra bureaucratic methods as a barrier to entry but I think its time tariffs were looked at to make UK produce more competitive.

    We could start with a big increase in air passenger duty for example which would have the added benefit of being environmentally sound.
    Tariffs would be reciprocated and make UK exports less competitive.
    As we export less than we import that works to our advantage.

    Alternatively we could have a lower value for sterling, or shift UK spending away from subsidising wealth consumption to supporting wealth creation.

    But what we can't do is permanently consume more wealth than we create.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,020
    edited November 2019

    ICM poll. Fieldwork up to and including today, changes from a week ago.

    Con 39 +1
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    BXP 8 -1
    Green 3

    [Apologies if it's already been picked up and commented on earlier.]

    Labour tribal vote is definitely going to get them 30% come what may. Problem for Tories is they need to get 40%, big ask with Boris not being very popular and how divisive Brexit is.
    Even with Labour on 31% with ICM, the Tories would gain 25 seats net in England and Wales on 39% with the LDs on 15%, enough for a comfortable Tory majority even if they lost a few in Scotland to the SNP too
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:


    Fair enough Kle4. I'm in a safe Tory seat like you, so it wouldn't really matter any way, but if I really had tol of his past associations.

    nt things...
    it's a life time of anti British and t.
    It amuses me that his ter

    As I previously made the point on the previous thread, more of a threat?
    There is a pretty big difference between talking ukka Umunna.
    I did not say he was a negotiator or supporting them. I was simply saying that he associated with people. The Tory/Brexit supporting media have an race day etc...
    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - rd of all these things?
    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Brexit enables

    As for the union, the SNP are still polling below 2015 levels which was before the Brexit vote
    Our own trade policy
    The SNP are campaigning for another vote, it will gather steam until it becomes inevitable due to Brexit.
    Once we get our own trade deals that will boost our economy and be negotiated on our own terms.

    There is no evidence whatsoever other than wishful thinking from diehard Remainer fanatics like you to whinge about Brexit has made the slightest difference to the prospect of Scottish independence, hence the SNP are still polling even below what they got in 2015 before the Brexit vote. Plus of course if he wins a majority Boris will block indyref2 anyway, Spain's tough line on Catalonia means Boris has free reign to follow suit and anything bar sending in the riot police and soldiers to shoot rubber bullets at Nats in Glasgow looks reasonable in comparison to what Madrid is doing and indeed Beijing is doing in Hong Kong. Sturgeon should be grateful Boris will not follow Madrid's lead and arrest her for sedition
    Brexit has not happened yet. SNP polling I suspect will only rival 2015 levels once Brexit has occured. If I am a diehard remainer. What does that make you? Apart from sometimes getting overexcited on implementing similar strategies to those seen in other countries, which, given a few years passing you will regret if you want a political career? Your allies now may well in the future become your opponents. Advocating shooting rubber bullets at people is not a career enhancing comment! :smile:
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD

    I would also add that if we dont have trade deals that roll over from EU negotiated ones then we will have a serious disadvantage straight away. As for new trade deals, they can take years to arrange. What happens in the mean time? My view is we will have screwed up the economy for little gain...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:


    Fair enough Kle4. I'm in a safe Tory seat like you, so it wouldn't really matter any way, but if I really had tol of his past associations.

    nt things...
    it's a life time of anti British and t.
    It amuses me that his ter

    As I previously made the point on the previous thread, more of a threat?
    There is a pretty big difference between talking ukka Umunna.
    I did not say he was a negotiator or supporting them. I was simply saying that he associated with people. The Tory/Brexit supporting media have an race day etc...
    Cobryn is a threat to the whole country - rd of all these things?
    Yet Brexit is not a threat to the union, the economy, peoples jobs, the nhs and the UKs trade policy, standing in the world etc etc?
    Brexit enables

    As for the union, the SNP are still polling below 2015 levels which was before the Brexit vote
    Our own trade policy
    The SNP are campaigning for another vote, it will gather steam until it becomes inevitable due to Brexit.
    Once we get our own trade deals that will boost our economy and be negotiated on our own terms.

    There is no evidence whatsoever other than wishful thinking from diehard Remainer fanatics like you to whinge about Brexit has made the slightest difference to the prospect of Scottish independence, hence the SNP are still polling even below what they got in 2015 before the for sedition
    Brexit has not happened yet. SNP polling I suspect will only rival 2015 levels once Brexit has occured. If I am a diehard remainer. What does that make you? Apart from sometimes getting overexcited on implementing similar strategies to those seen in other countries, which, given a few years passing you will regret if you want a political career? Your allies now may well in the future become your opponents. Advocating shooting rubber bullets at people is not a career enhancing comment! :smile:
    I did not advocate it as such, however it is the policy pursued by the Chinese government against pro democracy protestors in Hong Kong and it is also the policy pursued by the Spanish government with the Civil Guard sent in to arrest and crush Catalan nationalists. By simply refusing indyref2 Boris looks reasonable in comparison and he will block indyref2
  • Options


    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trad

    I did not say I did not know. Like your strawberry posts, I don't feel compelled to dance to your tune! :wink:

    Living within our means is great but what do you mean? Exchange controls, import substution industries, taxing people more so they have less disposable income? Please enlighten me!
    As the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are determined to live beyond their means then less free trade is what we require.

    Now I wouldn't want extra bureaucratic methods as a barrier to entry but I think its time tariffs were looked at to make UK produce more competitive.

    We could start with a big increase in air passenger duty for example which would have the added benefit of being environmentally sound.
    If the UK puts trade barriers up or tarrifs, other countries will reprocate with similar measures. We will be no better off. The UK has always been a trading nation in the last few hundred years at least. You are entitled to your view and I have some sympathy for air passanger tax increase. However, you seem to be saying we should stop people doing x and y all the time. You might be very UK centric, do not like going abroad, eating exotic food, wearing clothes from other countries or generally embracing activity not associated with UK economic activity. That is great for you but it is not really realistic to project your lifestyle choices onto the rest of the population. The world economy is going to become more interlinked and people will engage in more transnational economic activity not less. A trade surplus can equally be achieved by success rather than limiting choice and creating failure.
    I work for an company which creates wealth and exports. Its hard.

    Its much easier to consume wealth and that's what people want to do and what governments encourage them to do.

    After 22 consecutive years of trade deficit and with our current crop of politicians it should be obvious that the chance of increasing exports enough (and they've already increased by £120bn per year since the Referendum) for the UK to live within its means is minimal.

    It is on the UK's debt fueled over-consumption where the action needs to be taken.

    As I said this is a scary thought to those people who want to live in the manner to which they feel entitled to rather than the manner in which they can afford.
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    Imagine the queen (or even Boris!) tweeting this:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1194065765273653249?s=20
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited November 2019

    As for the union, the SNP are still polling below 2015 levels which was before the Brexit vote
    Once again you conflate SNP support with support for independence. Many independence supporters do not vote SNP.

    Your flaw is so frequent and consistent that I can only conclude this is a line you have been instructed to spin.
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    If I was buying Con on the seat spread markets, that graph would make me fill ma breeks.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    I reckon that those in the Shadow cabinet who opposed the call for a GE in December are feeling a bit "told you so"....this morning, its not looking too good for the reds (or the yellows) this morning.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,703
    edited November 2019

    Many independence supporters do not vote SNP

    And quite a few SNP voters do not support Independence....
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    Many independence supporters do not vote SNP

    And quite a few SNP voters do not support Independence....
    Of course. But far fewer.

    Support for the SNP is circa 40%.

    Support for independence is circa 50%.

    Incidentally, I see the Conservatives have drifted out to 25/1 in Ross, Skye and Lochaber, a seat where they were in close 2nd place last time. Lib Dems shortened to just 4/1. I expect to see this pattern throughout nearly all formerly Lib Dem-held rural seats in Scotland (Borders excepted).
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Its cute that some leavers still think we will ‘save money’ from Brexit.

    Either they are delusional or just dishonest.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081


    So you don't know.

    Let me tell you then that is what in 1997.

    That's 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.

    Which means that the trad

    I did not say I did not know. Like your strawberry posts, I don't feel compelled to dance to your tune! :wink:

    Living within our means is great but what do you mean? Exchange controls, import substution industries, taxing people more so they have less disposable income? Please enlighten me!
    As the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are determined to live beyond their means then less free trade is what we require.

    Now I wouldn't want extra bureaucratic methods as a barrier to entry but I think its time tariffs were looked at to make UK produce more competitive.

    We could start with a big increase in air passenger duty for example which would have the added benefit of being environmentally sound.
    If the UK puts trade barriers up or tarrifs, other countries will reprocate with similar measures. We will be no better off. The UK has always been a trading nation in the last few hundred years at least. You are entitled to your view and I have some sympathy for air passanger tax increase. However, you seem to be saying we should stop people doing x and y all the time. You might be very UK centric, do not like going abroad, eating exotic food, wearing clothes from other countries or generally embracing activity not associated with UK economic activity. That is great for you but it is not really realistic to project your lifestyle choices onto the rest of the population. The world economy is going to become more interlinked and people will engage in more transnational economic activity not less. A trade surplus can equally be achieved by success rather than limiting choice and creating failure.
    I work for an company which creates wealth and exports. Its hard.

    Its much easier to consume wealth and that's what people want to do and what governments encourage them to do.

    After 22 consecutive years of trade deficit and with our current crop of politicians it should be obvious that the chance of increasing exports enough (and they've already increased by £120bn per year since the Referendum) for the UK to live within its means is minimal.

    It is on the UK's debt fueled over-consumption where the action needs to be taken.

    As I said this is a scary thought to those people who want to live in the manner to which they feel entitled to rather than the manner in which they can afford.
    So if we have already increased our exports by 120b whilst remaining in the EU, how do you know leaving the EU will help with this?

    Why do you think trade barriers will help?
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    Carlotta, I saw your dismay yesterday at the PRC buying strategic steel facilities in northern England. I share your dismay.

    HMG should keep PRC well away from key infrastructure. The Chinese were trying it on in Sweden in recent years, eg trying to buy ports and other critical objects. The Swedish government belatedly cottoned on. The Chinese were absolutely furious and went straight into revenge mode.

    My recommendation is to bar all dictatorships from buying any key infrastructure.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435

    Carlotta, I saw your dismay yesterday at the PRC buying strategic steel facilities in northern England. I share your dismay.

    HMG should keep PRC well away from key infrastructure. The Chinese were trying it on in Sweden in recent years, eg trying to buy ports and other critical objects. The Swedish government belatedly cottoned on. The Chinese were absolutely furious and went straight into revenge mode.

    My recommendation is to bar all dictatorships from buying any key infrastructure.

    Dictatorships: does that include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, even Turkey?
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    Its cute that some leavers still think we will ‘save money’ from Brexit.

    Either they are delusional or just dishonest.

    They are both
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Gabs2 said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:


    Fair enough Kle4. I'm in a safe Tory seat like you, so it wouldn't really matter any way, but if I really had to with an alternative, I would go LD - even though I'm a leaver and I detest the LDs revoke policy. BUT - Corbyn. Dear God, the damage he would do to this country, domestically and internationally, does not bear thinking about. Even if you could forget all of his past associations.

    nt things...
    it's a life time of anti British and anti Western sentiment. A lifetime of cheer leading extremist Socialist republics in the Third World and using them as a template to dismantle the free market economy which sustains rich countries like ours. He's a bit shit crazy, vindictive, anti Semitic old bastard with the brain of a 15 year old Communist.
    It amuses me that his terrorist connections keep being highlighted in the Tory/Brexit supporting media. It may have passed you by but the British Government was in talks with the IRA in the 1970s, 1980s and the 1990s. The DUP went into Government with Sinn Fein FFS! I have no doubt at all that many of the people Corbyn has been viewed associating himself with will also have been in dialogue with the very people the terrorist's are running a campaign of violence against.

    As I previously made the point on the previous thread, the UK has survived left-wing Governments in the past and even Churchill accepted the radical socialist policies of the Atlee Government in 1950 and 1951.

    I actually think Corbyn comes across as reasonable and actually cares for the welfare of people unlike Boris who cares for himself only! I find the project fear around Corbyn as having parity with project fear around Brexit. If their is nothing to fear about Brexit as Leavers maintain why is Corbyn anymore of a threat?
    There is a pretty big difference between talking with an opponent and acting as a supporter. You can't claim Corbyn was just acting as a negotiator when he was wreath-laying at the graves of terrorists. Especially when he refused to meet with Chukka Umunna.
    I did not say he was a negotiator or supporting them. I was simply saying that he associated with people. The Tory/Brexit supporting media have an agenda, they see Corbyn as a threat. I see it for what it is and that's newspapers trying to steer public opinion. They see what has worked against previous leaders in the past and try and frame the current Labour leader with the same negative coverage i.e. waring a donkey jacket for reembrace day etc...
    Any half-sentient being should see Corbyn as a threat. It's not "an agenda" to steer people towards that view. It's a public service.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    I wonder if there should be a market on when Nigel Farage gets a peerage or a Governorship to the Falkland Islands....
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    FlannerFlanner Posts: 408
    isam said:

    "BP... has inherited the UKIP characteristic of being very poor in first past the post elections with a tendency to be overstated in the polls"

    Is this conclusion drawn from... one by election, where they came 2nd by 683 votes?

    I imagine it's drawn from TBP's appalling record in real elections.

    They've nominated candidates twice for Westminster (Peterborough and Brecon) - and in each case stopped the Tories from winning the seat.

    They've stood local candidates in Coventry and Gloucester - and in each case polled in single figures, helping the LibDems take seats from Labour and Tories they wouldn't otherwise have got.

    The only institutions in British politics with a worse electoral history than TBP are the Monster Raving Loonies - and Nigel Farage himself..
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Flanner said:

    isam said:

    "BP... has inherited the UKIP characteristic of being very poor in first past the post elections with a tendency to be overstated in the polls"

    Is this conclusion drawn from... one by election, where they came 2nd by 683 votes?

    I imagine it's drawn from TBP's appalling record in real elections.

    They've nominated candidates twice for Westminster (Peterborough and Brecon) - and in each case stopped the Tories from winning the seat.

    They've stood local candidates in Coventry and Gloucester - and in each case polled in single figures, helping the LibDems take seats from Labour and Tories they wouldn't otherwise have got.

    The only institutions in British politics with a worse electoral history than TBP are the Monster Raving Loonies - and Nigel Farage himself..
    Nigel Farage - the unpopular Popularist.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897

    ICM poll. Fieldwork up to and including today, changes from a week ago.

    Con 39 +1
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    BXP 8 -1
    Green 3

    [Apologies if it's already been picked up and commented on earlier.]

    Labour tribal vote is definitely going to get them 30% come what may. Problem for Tories is they need to get 40%, big ask with Boris not being very popular and how divisive Brexit is.
    What you call a "tribal" vote is an "under FPTP it's vote Labour or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    eristdoof said:

    ICM poll. Fieldwork up to and including today, changes from a week ago.

    Con 39 +1
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    BXP 8 -1
    Green 3

    [Apologies if it's already been picked up and commented on earlier.]

    Labour tribal vote is definitely going to get them 30% come what may. Problem for Tories is they need to get 40%, big ask with Boris not being very popular and how divisive Brexit is.
    What you call a "tribal" vote is an "under FPTP it's vote Labour or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.
    It's the "vote for the Brexit-ambivalent economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.

  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897

    eristdoof said:

    ICM poll. Fieldwork up to and including today, changes from a week ago.

    Con 39 +1
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    BXP 8 -1
    Green 3

    [Apologies if it's already been picked up and commented on earlier.]

    Labour tribal vote is definitely going to get them 30% come what may. Problem for Tories is they need to get 40%, big ask with Boris not being very popular and how divisive Brexit is.
    What you call a "tribal" vote is an "under FPTP it's vote Labour or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.
    It's the "vote for the Brexit-ambivalent economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.

    A Johnson Government is far worse for the UK than a Corbyn Government.

    I do not expect you to agree with me.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    ICM poll. Fieldwork up to and including today, changes from a week ago.

    Con 39 +1
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    BXP 8 -1
    Green 3

    [Apologies if it's already been picked up and commented on earlier.]

    Labour tribal vote is definitely going to get them 30% come what may. Problem for Tories is they need to get 40%, big ask with Boris not being very popular and how divisive Brexit is.
    What you call a "tribal" vote is an "under FPTP it's vote Labour or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.
    It's the "vote for the Brexit-ambivalent economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.

    A Johnson Government is far worse for the UK than a Corbyn Government.

    I do not expect you to agree with me.
    Well you got one thing right!
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081

    eristdoof said:

    ICM poll. Fieldwork up to and including today, changes from a week ago.

    Con 39 +1
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    BXP 8 -1
    Green 3

    [Apologies if it's already been picked up and commented on earlier.]

    Labour tribal vote is definitely going to get them 30% come what may. Problem for Tories is they need to get 40%, big ask with Boris not being very popular and how divisive Brexit is.
    What you call a "tribal" vote is an "under FPTP it's vote Labour or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.
    It's the "vote for the Brexit-ambivalent economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.

    Yes and as Boris is so bad I’m going to be voting for the economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist. I’m not happy about it.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,250
    edited November 2019
    I disagree with anyone doing deals to stand down - you either win your argument with the electorate or you do not. The SNP grew to a massive party from a small base by building their narrative and supporters - if you need others to step aside to boost you then you haven't convinced enough people. And in a democracy what is democratic about a party not standing? Have seen a lot of LD/Green/BXP voters outraged by these deals on Twitter.

    As for Brexit the thing not Brexit the Party, I read HYUFD bleating on about trade deals and wonder how we will spin reality when it arrives. The bigger you are the better the deal. Making ourselves smaller than our current trade value in the EU means that we get a worse deal not a better one.

    I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Thinking about it, Labour needs to put electoral reform in their manifesto if they want to further consolidate the centre left. It could work if they are serious about it, unlike Tony Blair.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited November 2019

    eristdoof said:

    ICM poll. Fieldwork up to and including today, changes from a week ago.

    Con 39 +1
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    BXP 8 -1
    Green 3

    [Apologies if it's already been picked up and commented on earlier.]

    Labour tribal vote is definitely going to get them 30% come what may. Problem for Tories is they need to get 40%, big ask with Boris not being very popular and how divisive Brexit is.
    What you call a "tribal" vote is an "under FPTP it's vote Labour or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.
    It's the "vote for the Brexit-ambivalent economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist or hand Boris an overall majority" vote.

    Yes and as Boris is so bad I’m going to be voting for the economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist. I’m not happy about it.
    Let's face it, Boris really isn't that bad. He had two terms as London Mayor, during which the place happily trundled on as one of the world's most liberal, multi-cultural cities without sliding into the Thames.

    You are just having to demonize him in your mind to justify your tribal vote for a Brexit-ambivalent economy-wrecking anti-semite Marxist.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,682
    On the Sterling Gomez bust up. Liverpool are obvious favourites to win the title now and probably value at 1.48 on Betfair. Man City are 3.65, but the value is on Chelsea at 38 and Leicester at 36. Both teams are playing well, and are above Man City.

    Liverpool has to implode to lose their lead, but as a team without European commitments, Leicester is the best value of these. We are playing well and have a good run of games until meeting Man City on 21st and Liverpool on 26th Dec. That Boxing day match is likely to be a tasty 6 pointer.

    Leicester are also value in the Carabao Cup at 9. Possibly Guardiola will want some silverware, but more likely that he will field the reserves, as will Liverpool due to pressure of commitments.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Corbyn really is the pits. A lot of voters are just not aware of his past and believe it is the usual fake news. But if you are politically clued up and aware of Corbyn's illustrious back story and you still vote for him, well that really does not reflect well on you IMO. The same goes for the likes of Starmer who have propped him up within the Labour party.
  • Options



    As the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are determined to live beyond their means then less free trade is what we require.

    Now I wouldn't want extra bureaucratic methods as a barrier to entry but I think its time tariffs were looked at to make UK produce more competitive.

    We could start with a big increase in air passenger duty for example which would have the added benefit of being environmentally sound.

    If the UK puts trade barriers up or tarrifs, other countries will reprocate with similar measures. We will be no better off. The UK has always been a trading nation in the last few hundred years at least. You are entitled to your view and I have some sympathy for air passanger tax increase. However, you seem to be saying we should stop people doing x and y all the time. You might be very UK centric, do not like going abroad, eating exotic food, wearing clothes from other countries or generally embracing activity not associated with UK economic activity. That is great for you but it is not really realistic to project your lifestyle choices onto the rest of the population. The world economy is going to become more interlinked and people will engage in more transnational economic activity not less. A trade surplus can equally be achieved by success rather than limiting choice and creating failure.
    I work for an company which creates wealth and exports. Its hard.

    Its much easier to consume wealth and that's what people want to do and what governments encourage them to do.

    After 22 consecutive years of trade deficit and with our current crop of politicians it should be obvious that the chance of increasing exports enough (and they've already increased by £120bn per year since the Referendum) for the UK to live within its means is minimal.

    It is on the UK's debt fueled over-consumption where the action needs to be taken.

    As I said this is a scary thought to those people who want to live in the manner to which they feel entitled to rather than the manner in which they can afford.
    So if we have already increased our exports by 120b whilst remaining in the EU, how do you know leaving the EU will help with this?

    Why do you think trade barriers will help?
    Because the UK in general and UK politicians in particular are unwilling to live within their means.

    So irrespective of the level of UK wealth creation, UK exports or UK tax raising they will want to spend more.
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Corbyn really is the pits. A lot of voters are just not aware of his past and believe it is the usual fake news. But if you are politically clued up and aware of Corbyn's illustrious back story and you still vote for him, well that really does not reflect well on you IMO. The same goes for the likes of Starmer who have propped him up within the Labour party.

    That's what happens when every single Labour leader is derided as Stalinist, Marxist, demonic, etc.
    The Tories have cried wolf at every single election. Nobody listens any more. Tories only have themselves to blame if Corbyn ends up PM.
This discussion has been closed.