Er, could the Tories maybe think about perhaps, er, starting to campaign? Not that the other parties have made much of an impact, but if it were me, I'd want to at least have one big event setting out the major themes of the campaign so as to try to frame the next 6 weeks from my perspective as much as possible...
The campaign official does not start until Parliament is dissolved on Wednesday when Boris launches the Tories campaign in the Midlands
Whilst slowly growing might be a statement of fact, "sclerotic" as if it has a negative effect on our economy is a nonsense.
Why is it a nonsense? Euroslerosis has been a known issue for decades now. Economists have discussed Eurosclerosis since the 1970s and it is still an issue today. The term sclerosis has been adopted based on the medical term to reflect Europes inflexible market conditions leading to slugglish economic performance. This was a major issue in prior decades and has shown up again in Europe in recent years.
It is an article of faith among many that the UK faces a downside and no upside from leaving the sclerotic European Union but if an independent United Kingdom can be more flexible and more agile at adapting to the modern market then we could benefit and grow more.
That rather depends on whether the measures needed to create all this “flexibility” and “agility” are politically acceptable to the voters the Tories need to get - and maintain - a majority.
More to the point, no-one ever seems to be able to give a single example of where the EU currently prevents us from exercising this 'flexibility' and 'agility'.
If I had to give one example, I'd say the Pillar 3 disclosure reporting requirements for insurance companies under Solvency II legislation on required capital. I can see no way on earth the UK regulator would have implemented these, even if they'd probably like to be stricter than the EU on Pillar 1 (the actual capital calculation).
I don't know enough about Basle III to say whether their reporting requirements are equally onerous and as inefficient a use of resources, bu I'd guess so.
It's worth asking, however, whether even leaving the EU prior to implementation would actually have provided us with any benefit, given the desire to be seen as having regulatory equivalence. However, the Swiss and Bermudians in particular seem to have managed to develop robust alternative regimes devoid of obsessive form filling.
Worth noting that insurance company regulation is, I believe, an excellent example generally of why the EU doesn't really work for us. The UK has a large number of commercial insurers, who between them cover complex risks all across the world. EU regulation is primarily focused on Franco-German personal lines insurers, who have completely different risk profiles and hence requirements. The one-size-fits-all approach from Brussels puts our firms at a competitive disadvantage (exacerbated by FSA/PRA/BoE goldplating, while our continental cousins often get away with a much lighter touch approach).
Or through the growth increase we can get once freed from the constraints of the sclerotic and slowly growing European Union.
Whilst slowly growing might be a statement of fact, "sclerotic" as if it has a negative effect on our economy is a nonsense.
Why is it a nonsense? Euroslerosis has been a known issue for decades now. Economists have discussed Eurosclerosis since the 1970s and it is still an issue today. The term sclerosis has been adopted based on the medical term to reflect Europes inflexible market conditions leading to slugglish economic performance. This was a major issue in prior decades and has shown up again in Europe in recent years.
It is an article of faith among many that the UK faces a downside and no upside from leaving the sclerotic European Union but if an independent United Kingdom can be more flexible and more agile at adapting to the modern market then we could benefit and grow more.
Anglosclerosis next, then.
You think we'll be inflexible once we're out? Its possible and if the Corbynites win quite probable but that doesn't seem likely to me at the moment.
I think your Eurosclerosis is largely a myth, that Brexit is an enormous and expensive distraction from any constructive policy formation, and that we’ll very likely be less competitive at the margin.
Obviously many of us believe you are entirely wrong on all those points.
My overall sense of the betting markets is that they're too gunshy on the Tories chances in terms of seat numbers whilst at the same time being wildly, wildly optimistic in some of the safer Labour northern seats.
The size of the hole where you can win both say Lab Hold Barnsley Central at 2-7 and on the spreads with Tory Maj is humungous. There's always a chance Nigel catches fire but we all have to take some risk in life !
I think that the overwhelming probability is that the BXP will fade considerably over this campaign. I wouldn't be surprised if their final vote share is less than 5%. Quite apart from anything else, Farage doing his chicken run to, err, nowhere must be quite extraordinarily disheartening to all those hundreds of BXP candidates who though they were signing up to be part of a great breakthrough in UK politics.
Looking at Chukka`s intended seat, London and Westminster, it would be pretty extraordinary if he won it right? Current odds have Libdems at evens and Tories at evens.
In 2017 47% voted Tory and 11% LibDem. Would take massive switching from Lab to LibDem.
Evens Tories in that seat is a good price yeah?
The LDs won Cities of London and Westminster in the European Parliament elections with Labour miles behind
There will be a good chunk of people who think "Farage not standing" means "Brexit Party not standing" (and some will think it means "UKIP not standing").
Looking at Chukka`s intended seat, London and Westminster, it would be pretty extraordinary if he won it right? Current odds have Libdems at evens and Tories at evens.
In 2017 47% voted Tory and 11% LibDem. Would take massive switching from Lab to LibDem.
Evens Tories in that seat is a good price yeah?
The LDs won Cities of London and Westminster in the European Parliament elections with Labour miles behind
On that basis, the Residents' Association can expect a few seats in the next parliament.
You got a much better price than I did - about 13 - but it's currently 7.4-8 and by comparison with the election markets it still seems good value, unless I'm missing something.
Turns out I was gilding the lily. Not 45. It was 25. Still, 7.6 now, as you say, so smug city. If he gets a good majority it would be surely be tempting. Also tempting to put his feet up for the hols, however, so think I might close out now. Thanks for the spot since I would not have known. It's not a market I check often now the GE is on.
Is it too pedantic to point out that it's "painting the lily"?
Would it be pedantic to point out @kinabalu is quite within his rights?
An error is still an error. If you gild a lily you end up with an unusual and - if it's done right - beautiful thing. The point about painting it, and gilding gold, is that it is a complete waste of time. It can only look the same, or worse.
Mind you, usage does eventually legitimise errors. "Reign in" and "hone in on" are pretty much the default spelling now.
In this case @kinabalu had overstated the odds - making it look better than it was. Hence gilding the already attractive lily
Or through the growth increase we can get once freed from the constraints of the sclerotic and slowly growing European Union.
Whilst slowly growing might be a statement of fact, "sclerotic" as if it has a negative effect on our economy is a nonsense.
Why is it a nonsense? Euroslerosis has been a known issue for decades now. Economists have discussed Eurosclerosis since the 1970s and it is still an issue today. The term sclerosis has been adopted based on the medical term to reflect Europes inflexible market conditions leading to slugglish economic performance. This was a major issue in prior decades and has shown up again in Europe in recent years.
It is an article of faith among many that the UK faces a downside and no upside from leaving the sclerotic European Union but if an independent United Kingdom can be more flexible and more agile at adapting to the modern market then we could benefit and grow more.
Anglosclerosis next, then.
You think we'll be inflexible once we're out? Its possible and if the Corbynites win quite probable but that doesn't seem likely to me at the moment.
I think your Eurosclerosis is largely a myth, that Brexit is an enormous and expensive distraction from any constructive policy formation, and that we’ll very likely be less competitive at the margin.
Brexit is the new opiate of the people. A distraction from things that are far more important, and undemocratic anomalies are studiously ignored by those who bleat about the importance of "respecting" a highly vague and possibly dubious referendum held in 2016.
The European Union has been that opiate. Within the EU everything blameworthy gets passed - oh the EU made us do that, oh the EU won't let us do that.
Out of the EU the politicians answer to us the voters. Either they do what we want them to or we kick them out and they have nowhere to hide.
Keep taking that opium. I think you may be taking some other mind bending drugs also if yos that, though with him it will be more about damage limitation to Boris Johnson.
May realised from the outset that it was a damage limitation exercise and I'm sure Johnson is aware too, but he is a shameless liar, and a charlatan, so he'll just bullshit away as usual. The evidence to date is that the punters are buying it in sufficient numbers, so who knows how long he'll get away with it.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
The implication is that the polls will shift in a similar way to 2017. There’s no way of knowing that this far out.
The implication is that they are already shifting in a similar way, and therefore the latter weeks of the 2017 campaign are now of some value as a predictive model.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
I’m happy to be corrected, but would not have instinctively thought that banning rich people from flying around in expensive planes or deciding not to spend a load more money on London-centric infrastructure would play badly with northern voters concentrated in lower socioeconomic groups.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
Oh I missed that.
So in the last few days Labour has been talking of banning private schools, removing all traces of privatisation from the NHS, banning private jets, and scrapping the third runway at Heathrow.
The EU elections are irrelevant to the GE. Most people did not vote and few people took them seriously. Both main parties effectively abstained from the contest - and simply went through the motions.
The implication is that the polls will shift in a similar way to 2017. There’s no way of knowing that this far out.
The implication is that they are already shifting in a similar way, and therefore the latter weeks of the 2017 campaign are now of some value as a predictive model.
It's a nice scientific experiment. Will 2019 pan out similar to 2017? Don't understand what's weird about that...
Er, could the Tories maybe think about perhaps, er, starting to campaign? Not that the other parties have made much of an impact, but if it were me, I'd want to at least have one big event setting out the major themes of the campaign so as to try to frame the next 6 weeks from my perspective as much as possible...
Remember Boris get a lectern outside Number 10 and a trip to the palace tomorrow.
That is reassuring, but still, we're in an age of asymmetric political combat so having a bit of shock-and-awe ready to go to bedazzle the other side wouldn't hurt.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
I’m happy to be corrected, but would not have instinctively thought that banning rich people from flying around in expensive planes or deciding not to spend a load more money on London-centric infrastructure would play badly with northern voters concentrated in lower socioeconomic groups.
Fair point. I was talking about the overall picture rather than this specific policy. Everything's fine until they start threatening taxes on package holiday flights to Benidorm. The putative "frequent flyer" tax is a) impossible to police and b) open to other parties branding it as this year's dementia tax.
The implication is that the polls will shift in a similar way to 2017. There’s no way of knowing that this far out.
The implication is that they are already shifting in a similar way, and therefore the latter weeks of the 2017 campaign are now of some value as a predictive model.
My view is we can’t treat an election campaign in the same way as any other election campaign. We know the 2017 campaign was, to put it mildly, terrible for the Tories and Labour made a lot of hay. We cannot tell at this stage whether the same will be true.
Just holding an election doesn’t mean the polls will necessarily move one way or the other. There are plenty of intervening events and nuances that help produce the results they do. I just find it a bit simplistic to imply that 2019 will be 2017 redux “just because”.
The implication is that the polls will shift in a similar way to 2017. There’s no way of knowing that this far out.
The implication is that they are already shifting in a similar way, and therefore the latter weeks of the 2017 campaign are now of some value as a predictive model.
But the tory share seems to be rising, where as it was falling at this point in 2017.
Looking at Chukka`s intended seat, London and Westminster, it would be pretty extraordinary if he won it right? Current odds have Libdems at evens and Tories at evens.
In 2017 47% voted Tory and 11% LibDem. Would take massive switching from Lab to LibDem.
Evens Tories in that seat is a good price yeah?
The LDs won Cities of London and Westminster in the European Parliament elections with Labour miles behind
On that basis, the Residents' Association can expect a few seats in the next parliament.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
I’m happy to be corrected, but would not have instinctively thought that banning rich people from flying around in expensive planes or deciding not to spend a load more money on London-centric infrastructure would play badly with northern voters concentrated in lower socioeconomic groups.
Fair point. I was talking about the overall picture rather than this specific policy. Everything's fine until they start threatening taxes on package holiday flights to Benidorm. The putative "frequent flyer" tax is a) impossible to police and b) open to other parties branding it as this year's dementia tax.
I’m not a fan of the frequent flyer tax idea but think it’s pretty easy actually, given the infrastructure for collecting advance passenger information is already in place - it wouldn’t be that difficult to give a once-annual exemption from an increased rate of APD to all U.K. passport holders. Some challenges around the margins for those holding two passports, making sure exemptions aren’t swallowed up by business travel and so on, but much easier than projects like making tax digital or universal credit, for example.
An anti-elite policy where you get one tax-free holiday a year while the frequent flying fat cats get clobbered is a nice easy sell, whether or not it actually makes sense as a policy.
I'm gonna see how much more data noodling I can do about the Scottish 2010 Lib Dem seats but my interim conclusion is that people pinning their hopes on Unionist Tactical voting happening in 2019 that didn't already happen in 2017 will need to show their working.
Looking at Chukka`s intended seat, London and Westminster, it would be pretty extraordinary if he won it right? Current odds have Libdems at evens and Tories at evens.
In 2017 47% voted Tory and 11% LibDem. Would take massive switching from Lab to LibDem.
Evens Tories in that seat is a good price yeah?
The LDs won Cities of London and Westminster in the European Parliament elections with Labour miles behind
On that basis, the Residents' Association can expect a few seats in the next parliament.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
I’m happy to be corrected, but would not have instinctively thought that banning rich people from flying around in expensive planes or deciding not to spend a load more money on London-centric infrastructure would play badly with northern voters concentrated in lower socioeconomic groups.
Fair point. I was talking about the overall picture rather than this specific policy. Everything's fine until they start threatening taxes on package holiday flights to Benidorm. The putative "frequent flyer" tax is a) impossible to police and b) open to other parties branding it as this year's dementia tax.
I absolutely agree. Even 'northern voters concentrated in lower socioeconomic groups' (is that long hand for northern monkeys? It feels like it.) can recognise a wedge has a thin end and a thick end.
The 70s was an awesome decade for music. But most of it was American.
ABBA, Bowie, Queen, Stones... Coldplay were born in the 70s...
It felt at the time like all the good stuff had happened in the 60s - Beatles disbanded, Stones past it. No one admitted to liking Abba, and punk/new wave got off the ground on the back of a very widespread feeling that everything up to 1977 was indeed crap.
Not in northern and Welsh labour seats I assume ,as they will take non conservative voting labour supporters depressing the labour vote further
In fact Farage made it clear he is coming after labour in the northern seats
It is potentially complicated. Farage needs to get his BXP story straight. He is 'threatening' Johnson with a full campaign if Johnson does not agree his terms. This implies that he thinks the BXP will do more net damage to the Cons at the polls than to Labour.
Or Big Dom has war gamed it... make people think that they need to back the Tories to Getz Brexit done by bigging up The threat
I hate to say it, but my reaction to that article was "no shit, Sherlock". However, stating the obvious in simple language is at a premium, particularly in these days of lies, so I'll take it. Thank you, @Nigelb
I'd probably make the LDs 3rd favourite in Portsmouth South given it is their own poll an the Lab/Lib and Tory/BXP squeeze hasnt yet finished, but its certainly a very exciting 3 way marginal.
There must be plenty of Tories viewing this poll knocking at the door of both Richard Tice and the local BXP canidate Susan Lloyd suggesting that these are the constituencies where the Brexit Party could cost the country Brexit if they dont stand aside.
As I maintained earlier if the BXP stand across the South they will cost the Tories plenty of potential gains and cost them a fair few holds too, ruining their reputation in the process. A lot of thinking to be done in the next 10 days.
Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.
Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.
That is all very fine as a general statement.
But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?
I'd probably make the LDs 3rd favourite in Portsmouth South given it is their own poll an the Lab/Lib and Tory/BXP squeeze hasnt yet finished, but its certainly a very exciting 3 way marginal.
There must be plenty of Tories viewing this poll knocking at the door of both Richard Tice and the local BXP canidate Susan Lloyd suggesting that these are the constituencies where the Brexit Party could cost the country Brexit if they dont stand aside.
As I maintained earlier if the BXP stand across the South they will cost the Tories plenty of potential gains and cost them a fair few holds too, ruining their reputation in the process. A lot of thinking to be done in the next 10 days.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
I suppose you could launch a torpedo from Dorney Lake?
I'd probably make the LDs 3rd favourite in Portsmouth South given it is their own poll an the Lab/Lib and Tory/BXP squeeze hasnt yet finished, but its certainly a very exciting 3 way marginal.
There must be plenty of Tories viewing this poll knocking at the door of both Richard Tice and the local BXP canidate Susan Lloyd suggesting that these are the constituencies where the Brexit Party could cost the country Brexit if they dont stand aside.
As I maintained earlier if the BXP stand across the South they will cost the Tories plenty of potential gains and cost them a fair few holds too, ruining their reputation in the process. A lot of thinking to be done in the next 10 days.
Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.
Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.
Or a race to the bottom, shitting on quality and workers rights. I can see that, even as an ex-Tory.
It's a race to the bottom because the UK hasn't done investment for 15+ years most companies prefer to poach skilled staff from others and still use labour substitution rather than investment.
Labour to examine proposals to ban private jets and consult in the use of fossil fuel in private jets
The Labour Party appears to have gone completely nuts.
They are trying to get Greta's endorsement.....
I assumed promising to torpedo Heathrow runway 3 was an audacious bid to unseat Johnson in Uxbridge. It does now look a bit more like squeezing the Green vote back to '17 levels.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
I suppose you could launch a torpedo from Dorney Lake?
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/04/the-stakes-are-enormous-is-hillary-clinton-set-for-a-white-house-run
...Hillary Clinton is 72.
I don't know enough about Basle III to say whether their reporting requirements are equally onerous and as inefficient a use of resources, bu I'd guess so.
It's worth asking, however, whether even leaving the EU prior to implementation would actually have provided us with any benefit, given the desire to be seen as having regulatory equivalence. However, the Swiss and Bermudians in particular seem to have managed to develop robust alternative regimes devoid of obsessive form filling.
Worth noting that insurance company regulation is, I believe, an excellent example generally of why the EU doesn't really work for us. The UK has a large number of commercial insurers, who between them cover complex risks all across the world. EU regulation is primarily focused on Franco-German personal lines insurers, who have completely different risk profiles and hence requirements. The one-size-fits-all approach from Brussels puts our firms at a competitive disadvantage (exacerbated by FSA/PRA/BoE goldplating, while our continental cousins often get away with a much lighter touch approach).
All it needs is a small increase in seats for both parties.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10272024/duping-corbyn-supports-terrorists/
And as I've just pointed out, each of Greens, LibDems and Brexit Party are trending down in the recent polls.
Which is the "logical" extension to this madness
There will be a good chunk of people who think "Farage not standing" means "Brexit Party not standing" (and some will think it means "UKIP not standing").
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0376871619304892
.... being dumb appears to make you more likely to smoke it to excess.
None of this will play well with the Northern base voters, so like '17 it appears they are utterly confident that, when push comes to shove, lifelong Labour voters will ultimately vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
I reckon she's safe enough.
https://www.politico.eu/article/12-big-names-who-should-be-nervous-about-the-uk-election/
So in the last few days Labour has been talking of banning private schools, removing all traces of privatisation from the NHS, banning private jets, and scrapping the third runway at Heathrow.
Just holding an election doesn’t mean the polls will necessarily move one way or the other. There are plenty of intervening events and nuances that help produce the results they do. I just find it a bit simplistic to imply that 2019 will be 2017 redux “just because”.
It certainly foresaw the chaos, if not anarchy the country faces now.
I think the comment that no-one (neither GB or Eire) wants NI is probably very astute.
An anti-elite policy where you get one tax-free holiday a year while the frequent flying fat cats get clobbered is a nice easy sell, whether or not it actually makes sense as a policy.
What's that? They don't? Oh......
I`ve rated their chances in my view (1 = best chance, 6 = worst chance).
Gyimah - 1
Lee - 2
Umunna - 3
Wollaston - 4
Sandbach - 5
Berger - 6
Maybe none of them?
It certainly spawned the chaos, if not anarchy the country faces now.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865?s=20
Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.
There must be plenty of Tories viewing this poll knocking at the door of both Richard Tice and the local BXP canidate Susan Lloyd suggesting that these are the constituencies where the Brexit Party could cost the country Brexit if they dont stand aside.
As I maintained earlier if the BXP stand across the South they will cost the Tories plenty of potential gains and cost them a fair few holds too, ruining their reputation in the process. A lot of thinking to be done in the next 10 days.
But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?