Business activity in the eurozone’s two largest economies is diverging sharply, with France’s private sector contracting after two months of growth while in Germany it accelerated to a 10-month high, according to a survey.
Employment levels and order books in France both fell at the sharpest rate since May, underlining the weakness of the recovery in the eurozone’s second-biggest economy.
The French economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and Markit Economics, which compiles the survey, said Thursday’s data suggest the country could fall back into recession.
www.ft.com
That's the most significant story of the day, though you wouldn't know it.
The euro - plus its own inertia and bureacuracy - is locking France into a permanent stagnation/recession, with debts rising alongside unemployment.
If the euro breaks up, or, alternatively, the EU becomes a proper Federal Union - it will because the French decide the EU, as it is, isn't working for them. The PIIGS, even Italy, can be dismissed as peripheral. Not France.
Yup. The economic line between northern and southern Europe runs through the middle of France so that's where the EU's fatal one-size-fits-all economic flaw is at its most intense.
The world's biggest credit bubble (1998-2008) hid the underlying problem.
Both the Mail and the Telegraph have picked up the Mr Harriet Harman story:
Labour frontbencher 'favourited' explicit gay porn tweets Jack Dromey, who is married to Harriet Harman, blames his links to gay porn sites on a “technological mix up"
Harriet Harman's MP husband left red-faced after adding gay porn Tweet to his 'favourites' Labour MP Jack Dromey linked to a tweet about well-endowed black men Harriet Harman's husband made a 'technological mix up', spokesman said
His sexuality is neither here nor there. His wife's pronouncements on the subject of pornography is a matter of public record. Although to be fair, AFAIK her complaints have been about the objectification and exploitation of women and not men. I wonder if he has a view on the latter?
Get a life.
Got a mirror dear?
I don't spend my time telling other posters what to post.
No, you spend your time telling us what to read.
No, I simply point out some of what the press are covering - to your evident discomfort - post more interesting stories.....if you can find them......
Both the Mail and the Telegraph have picked up the Mr Harriet Harman story:
Labour frontbencher 'favourited' explicit gay porn tweets Jack Dromey, who is married to Harriet Harman, blames his links to gay porn sites on a “technological mix up"
Harriet Harman's MP husband left red-faced after adding gay porn Tweet to his 'favourites' Labour MP Jack Dromey linked to a tweet about well-endowed black men Harriet Harman's husband made a 'technological mix up', spokesman said
Oh please, yet more special pleading from lefties. Given that Dromey has now made this "mistake" TWICE, six months apart, we can assume that 2 is closer to the truth than 1.
In which case, would Labour stop their chortling and sneering if the same "mistake" was made by the spouse of a very senior Tory? No. tim wouldn't stop mentioning it until the Heat Death of the universe.
To be fair, it might not even have been him. It would not surprise me if one of his team also accessed and managed his tweets.
I'm quite glad that I've never had anything to do with Twitter ...
The Mail says only he has access to his Twitter account, so it can't be anyone else.
Ah, fair enough. That actually surprises me; I assumed that others in his office would have had access. Thanks to you and Sean for putting me straight. ;-)
The story made me chuckle, but it's really a tiny story as it stands.
The Turkey story: bu**er. At least my father-in-law's retired now...
Regarding Dromey, I couldn't really care less what he looks at online, and I don't have any time for Harmans politics, but any woman of her age discovering her husband is looking at porn is likely to feel hurt and bad about herself. The clamour to dismiss it all as par for the course doesn't take into account Ms Harmans feelings. The re is a rush to defend it because th subject matter included two PC favs that can't be criticised , but I wonder how the reaction would be if he had favourited busty white babes? Much more critical is my guess
The Tories have now borrowed more in 3 years than Labour did in 13 years.
And they had to borrow more in their first month than Labour did in their first seven years - that's the difference between a Tory & a Labour legacy.....
And before they start blaming someone else remember how they used to claim Obama wouldn't get the deficit down as fast they they would.
Bless you, tim. Good luck with that one.
Yes, it's such a hilarious line.
Having spent two years before the election spreading horror stories about how the Tories would cut the deficit too fast, and the two years after the election going on about 'too far, too fast', the line now is that it wasn't fast enough.
If Dromey (as an example - I am not in any way saying this is the case) proved to be bisexual or gay, why does it matter politically? First and foremost, it is a personal problem that will upset his family. It's one of the few things that might make me feel sympathy for Harman.
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
"Growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector was the strongest for 18 years according to the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Both the size of total order books and the pace of output growth over the past three months were the highest recorded since 1995, showing the recovery in UK manufacturing is accelerating.
The survey of nearly 350 manufacturers found that total order books relative to normal levels were their strongest since March 1995. Export order books were also very firmly above average."
If Dromey (as an example - I am not in any way saying this is the case) proved to be bisexual or gay, why does it matter politically? First and foremost, it is a personal problem that will upset his family. It's one of the few things that might make me feel sympathy for Harman.
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
Here's the thing with Twitter - it makes the private, public.
Lynton Crosby's partner appears to be cut from the same cloth as the Tories UKIP plant
Yes, a tweet from someone no one has heard of about a politician no one knows in a country most people would struggle to put on the map is going to drive 'Front Bench anti-pornography campaigner Labour MP's Labour MP husband tweeting about big black gay cocks' right out of the news cycle.....
"It’s no coincidence the MPs found guilty of fiddling are all Labour The party may take the moral high ground, but lying and cheating are deep in its DNA"
"I believe that it is Labour’s belief in its own higher morality – what Bertrand Russell called the “superior virtue of the oppressed” – that has led to its downfall. "
if, c. 2% sociopaths in the general population
if, long-term prosperity leads to non-sociopaths gradually dropping out of politics in favour of DIY
then, over time long-term prosperity will lead to a high percentage of sociopaths among the political class
if, one party has a higher percentage of people dropping out of political activism e.g. because they got what they wanted i.e. decent housing and a health service, then that party's percentage of sociopaths will gradually become higher than the other parties (although the percentage will be high among all the main parties).
And before they start blaming someone else remember how they used to claim Obama wouldn't get the deficit down as fast they they would.
Bless you, tim. Good luck with that one.
Yes, it's such a hilarious line.
Having spent two years before the election spreading horror stories about how the Tories would cut the deficit too fast, and the two years after the election going on about 'too far, too fast', the line now is that it wasn't fast enough.
Let's hope they continue with it.
Don't blame me for George Osborne proclaiming economic victory in 2010 and declaring that growth was established and the deficit would be cleared up by 2015, it's not my fault his "cuts" led to increased spending.
But better late than never eh tim - this looks promising doesn't it ?
"Growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector was the strongest for 18 years according to the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Both the size of total order books and the pace of output growth over the past three months were the highest recorded since 1995, showing the recovery in UK manufacturing is accelerating. "
The Tories have now borrowed more in 3 years than Labour did in 13 years.
And before they start blaming someone else remember how they used to claim Obama wouldn't get the deficit down as fast they they would.
They did inherit a public sector deficit of 11% of GDP. Unless you're arguing for very stringent cuts in public spending (not usually a Labour argument) then they were bound to keep borrowing, even as the deficit fell.
The deficit should be around 5.5% of GDP in the current fiscal year, which is undoubtedly too high for comfort, but still a significant move in the right direction.
If Dromey (as an example - I am not in any way saying this is the case) proved to be bisexual or gay, why does it matter politically? First and foremost, it is a personal problem that will upset his family. It's one of the few things that might make me feel sympathy for Harman.
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
His gayness is indeed neither here nor there (except if you like laughing at politicians making terrible "mistakes"). However If he's a politician using porn (which he apparently is) it matters quite a lot because his politician wife is a fierce opponent of porn.
Imagine if the wife of a Tory minister was caught doing something fiercely, and political abhorred, by her Tory minister husband.
Exactly. Very awkward.
I doubt Harman has a problem with gay porn, as long as the blokes are involved in snuff-type clinches and getting seriously tortured.
If Dromey (as an example - I am not in any way saying this is the case) proved to be bisexual or gay, why does it matter politically? First and foremost, it is a personal problem that will upset his family. It's one of the few things that might make me feel sympathy for Harman.
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
His gayness is indeed neither here nor there (except if you like laughing at politicians making terrible "mistakes"). However If he's a politician using porn (which he apparently is) it matters quite a lot because his politician wife is a fierce opponent of porn.
Imagine if the wife of a Tory minister was caught doing something fiercely, and political abhorred, by her Tory minister husband.
Exactly. Very awkward.
Yep, good point. But that would be more of a problem for the minister, rather than the wife. Either way, it would still more of a personal disaster than a political one. Who knows, the minister may change his mind, and realise that his previous opinion was wrong.
I doubt Harman's capable of such a change of mind, though...
"Billy Bragg wants the European Commission to buy the Daily Mail, sack its editor, Paul Dacre, and use the paper to tell the truth about the European Union."
Don't blame me for George Osborne proclaiming economic victory in 2010 and declaring that growth was established and the deficit would be cleared up by 2015, it's not my fault his "cuts" led to increased spending.
Even if the deficit had been cleared by 2015 the Coalition would still have had to borrow more than the last Government because of the position they inherited. Your point is completely irrelevant. I used to think you knew that but now I'm not so sure.
Oh dear, Peter Oborne needs to brush up on his statistics:
Mathematicians tell us that the statistical probability against a coin coming up heads six times in a row is 64-1. In other words there is only one chance in 64 that Labour’s score of 6/6 was a coincidence.
If we take the 2005 starting position of Labour holding 355 out of 646 seats, the correct figure is a 2.7% chance that all six would Labour, if the null hypothesis is that there was no systematic bias towards Labour MPs being more corrupt than other MPs, i.e. a one in 37 chance. (355/646 for the first, 354/645 for the second etc, multiplied together). This assumes we include Sinn Fein MPs, which I think is right because they claimed expenses even though they didn't take part in parliamentary debates and votes.
Still statisically significant by the most commonly-used assessment, of course.
To be fair, I think some Conservative MPs only avoided prosectuion because they weren't quite so blatantly stupid as the Labour MPs who got convicted.
I have a theory as to why the Tories aren't improving in the polls when the current news cycle might suggest they should be. Trouble for them is that whenever Labour get a problem - Falkirk, Co-op - the Tories seize on it as a chance to move to the right and blow any potential benefit they may get from it. Seems like they get rather excited by Labour's difficulties and reveal their true colours, which aren't of course very appealing ones to the voters.
If Dromey (as an example - I am not in any way saying this is the case) proved to be bisexual or gay, why does it matter politically? First and foremost, it is a personal problem that will upset his family. It's one of the few things that might make me feel sympathy for Harman.
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
Another sensible and humane post from the thinking man's Tory.
I have a theory as to why the Tories aren't improving in the polls when the current news cycle might suggest they should be. Trouble for them is that whenever Labour get a problem - Falkirk, Co-op - the Tories seize on it as a chance to move to the right and blow any potential benefit they may get from it. Seems like they get rather excited by Labour's difficulties and reveal their true colours, which aren't of course very appealing ones to the voters.
If Dromey (as an example - I am not in any way saying this is the case) proved to be bisexual or gay, why does it matter politically? First and foremost, it is a personal problem that will upset his family. It's one of the few things that might make me feel sympathy for Harman.
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
Another sensible and humane post from the thinking man's Tory.
I would expect similar from your good self if it had been a baby eater, and I mean that in a complimentary manner.
To be fair, I think some Conservative MPs only avoided prosectuion because they weren't quite so blatantly stupid as the Labour MPs who got convicted.
Possibly, but it was the forging of invoices and other documents which did for most of the felons. That is in a different league of deliberate and pre-meditated dishonesty than bending the (already incredibly lax) rules. Not that any party comes out of the affair untainted, of course.
I assume you have access to the internet and can find stories you deem 'interesting' yourself. The nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching on here in recent days is truly depressing. I honestly thought those days were over. Honestly.
If Dromey (as an example - I am not in any way saying this is the case) proved to be bisexual or gay, why does it matter politically? First and foremost, it is a personal problem that will upset his family. It's one of the few things that might make me feel sympathy for Harman.
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
His gayness is indeed neither here nor there (except if you like laughing at politicians making terrible "mistakes"). However If he's a politician using porn (which he apparently is) it matters quite a lot because his politician wife is a fierce opponent of porn.
Imagine if the wife of a Tory minister was caught doing something fiercely, and political abhorred, by her Tory minister husband.
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Secondly and more importantly, this year’s revival of growth in Britain has resulted directly from an audacious government policy to promote huge increases in highly-leveraged mortgage debt. This mortgage-support plan is equivalent, from a macroeconomic standpoint, to a huge expansion of government borrowing. When George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, announced last March that the Treasury would provide unprecedented guarantees to support the reintroduction of 95 percent mortgages — which had been eliminated by prudential bank regulation — he immediately transformed Britain’s economic prospects, as explained here at the time.
This announcement meant that Osborne was finally accepting the fundamental principle of Keynesian economics: a country emerging from recession must increase, not reduce, its borrowings, until the point is reached where the economy’s excess savings are fully employed.'
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Err, no, it doesn't seem a reasonable analysis, Kaletsky is making a schoolboy howler. It is the change in the deficit which is the fiscal tightening or loosening, so quoting the absolute deficit figures tells you nothing.
Lynton Crosby's partner appears to be cut from the same cloth as the Tories UKIP plant
Yes, a tweet from someone no one has heard of about a politician no one knows in a country most people would struggle to put on the map is going to drive 'Front Bench anti-pornography campaigner Labour MP's Labour MP husband tweeting about big black gay cocks' right out of the news cycle.....
As the PB Tories discuss polls one day per month and cock tweets or Falkirk for the rest you have to wonder which is the outlier
Discussing individual polls is fairly ridiculous. It's like sheep seeing the sun come up and bleating: "Look, we're up three points!" followed by another the next day bleating: "Look, we're up three points!"
There's just too much variation. I take note, look at the trends and any other subsidiary data aside from the headline VI, and just laugh at the comments.
However individual polls are sometimes the grit in the site's oyster, especially when OGH notices some interesting subsidiary data.
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Err, no, it doesn't seem a reasonable analaysis, Kaletsky is making a schoolboy howler. It is the change in the deficit which is the fiscal tightening or loosening, so quoting the absolute deficit figures tells you nothing.
How much did the deficit (not structural) come down by in 2012-13 and what was Osborne's plan for it in 2010?
I have a theory as to why the Tories aren't improving in the polls when the current news cycle might suggest they should be. Trouble for them is that whenever Labour get a problem - Falkirk, Co-op - the Tories seize on it as a chance to move to the right and blow any potential benefit they may get from it. Seems like they get rather excited by Labour's difficulties and reveal their true colours, which aren't of course very appealing ones to the voters.
Falkirk and the Co-Op are below the radar for most voters. Politicians of all parties are seen as shady and unscrupulous and anyway these scandals affecting Labour are more than balanced by other events affecting the Tories which we are not to allowed to discuss.
However you are right that the Tories seem to be trying as hard as possible to remind people that Cameron's "modernisation" was only skin deep - if today's reports are to be believed the "greenest government ever" actually thinks the green agenda is "crap".
@Carlotta The nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching on here in recent days is truly depressing. I honestly thought those days were over. Honestly.
The lady doth protest too much methinks.
The criticism of Flowers has been for his manifest unsuitability for Chairmanship of the COOP bank, his drug taking and the failure of those who appointed him to either discover or take account of someone whose serial risk-taking marked him out as unsuitable for his job.
For reasons best known to yourself you are claiming it is 'nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching' - erecting a straw man of 'You're all mean coz he's gay' - hoping his manifest failings will go un-noticed.
On Dromey, the irony of a prominent Front Bench anti-pornography campaigner's spouse tweeting apparently appreciatively about pornography also seems to have passed you by.
That couldn't be because they are both Labour, could it?
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Secondly and more importantly, this year’s revival of growth in Britain has resulted directly from an audacious government policy to promote huge increases in highly-leveraged mortgage debt. This mortgage-support plan is equivalent, from a macroeconomic standpoint, to a huge expansion of government borrowing. When George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, announced last March that the Treasury would provide unprecedented guarantees to support the reintroduction of 95 percent mortgages — which had been eliminated by prudential bank regulation — he immediately transformed Britain’s economic prospects, as explained here at the time.
This announcement meant that Osborne was finally accepting the fundamental principle of Keynesian economics: a country emerging from recession must increase, not reduce, its borrowings, until the point is reached where the economy’s excess savings are fully employed.'
When growth is (firmly) re-established, will the Gov't (Of whatever colour) put into practice the other part of Keynes' economics to run a surplus in the good times ?
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Secondly and more importantly, this year’s revival of growth in Britain has resulted directly from an audacious government policy to promote huge increases in highly-leveraged mortgage debt. This mortgage-support plan is equivalent, from a macroeconomic standpoint, to a huge expansion of government borrowing. When George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, announced last March that the Treasury would provide unprecedented guarantees to support the reintroduction of 95 percent mortgages — which had been eliminated by prudential bank regulation — he immediately transformed Britain’s economic prospects, as explained here at the time.
This announcement meant that Osborne was finally accepting the fundamental principle of Keynesian economics: a country emerging from recession must increase, not reduce, its borrowings, until the point is reached where the economy’s excess savings are fully employed.'
A public sector deficit of 5.8% of GDP is high indeed, but the starting point was a deficit of 11% of GDP in 2009/10. That's not a fiscal easing; it's a fiscal tightening of 5.2% of GDP.
Lynton Crosby's partner appears to be cut from the same cloth as the Tories UKIP plant
Yes, a tweet from someone no one has heard of about a politician no one knows in a country most people would struggle to put on the map is going to drive 'Front Bench anti-pornography campaigner Labour MP's Labour MP husband tweeting about big black gay cocks' right out of the news cycle.....
As the PB Tories discuss polls one day per month and cock tweets or Falkirk for the rest you have to wonder which is the outlier
Discussing individual polls is fairly ridiculous. It's like sheep seeing the sun come up and bleating: "Look, we're up three points!" followed by another the next day bleating: "Look, we're up three points!"
There's just too much variation. I take note, look at the trends and any other subsidiary data aside from the headline VI, and just laugh at the comments.
However individual polls are sometimes the grit in the site's oyster, especially when OGH notices some interesting subsidiary data.
The reason the PB tories have only discussed polling once in the last month is because there's only been one they are happy with and they shut down when the polling is bad for them. Further to that as Lord Ashcroft points out they are totally in denial about it all.
I'm not sure it is denial or not amongst the Tory leadership. I expect they know it's pretty bad out there but are trying to talk themselves up because the only reason the Conservative party keeps Cameron in power is because he might win them an election.
Lynton Crosby's partner appears to be cut from the same cloth as the Tories UKIP plant
Yes, a tweet from someone no one has heard of about a politician no one knows in a country most people would struggle to put on the map is going to drive 'Front Bench anti-pornography campaigner Labour MP's Labour MP husband tweeting about big black gay cocks' right out of the news cycle.....
As the PB Tories discuss polls one day per month and cock tweets or Falkirk for the rest you have to wonder which is the outlier
Discussing individual polls is fairly ridiculous. It's like sheep seeing the sun come up and bleating: "Look, we're up three points!" followed by another the next day bleating: "Look, we're up three points!"
There's just too much variation. I take note, look at the trends and any other subsidiary data aside from the headline VI, and just laugh at the comments.
However individual polls are sometimes the grit in the site's oyster, especially when OGH notices some interesting subsidiary data.
The reason the PB tories have only discussed polling once in the last month is because there's only been one they are happy with and they shut down when the polling is bad for them. Further to that as Lord Ashcroft points out they are totally in denial about it all.
I must admit, I haven't particularly noticed a reduction in the amount of posts on individual polls.
There are no elections coming up in the next few months, and Labour have a fairly stable lead. There's really not much to say. I expect it'll change in the run-up to the May Euro / LE and, of course, the Referendum.
2014 should be a much more interesting year on PB. And hopefully it will be profitable for those of you who bet.
Head over to Guido for an update on the Dromey story.
Warning : Finish your coffee first, or it will be all over your keyboard
Back to the 1980s with the illiberal PB Tories. Get out more.
Eh? Holier than thou Labour apparatchik and husband of Hatty Hateperson (who strangely is the only man thus far to win a seat from an all-women shortlist) gets caught surfing the web for large dark roosters (or some such) and if you think that's a hoot then you're illiberal and need to get out more? I don't get it.
No doubt if Osborne got caught drunk, naked, in bed with thee underage rent boys and an orange up his butt you'd be very silent. Not.
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Secondly and more importantly, this year’s revival of growth in Britain has resulted directly from an audacious government policy to promote huge increases in highly-leveraged mortgage debt. This mortgage-support plan is equivalent, from a macroeconomic standpoint, to a huge expansion of government borrowing. When George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, announced last March that the Treasury would provide unprecedented guarantees to support the reintroduction of 95 percent mortgages — which had been eliminated by prudential bank regulation — he immediately transformed Britain’s economic prospects, as explained here at the time.
This announcement meant that Osborne was finally accepting the fundamental principle of Keynesian economics: a country emerging from recession must increase, not reduce, its borrowings, until the point is reached where the economy’s excess savings are fully employed.'
When growth is (firmly) re-established, will the Gov't (Of whatever colour) put into practice the other part of Keynes' economics to run a surplus in the good times ?
Governments generally have done that, including the last one.
Keynesianism isn't about running a perpetual surplus just so you can say you did next time a once in a generation global financial crisis occurs.
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Err, no, it doesn't seem a reasonable analysis, Kaletsky is making a schoolboy howler. It is the change in the deficit which is the fiscal tightening or loosening, so quoting the absolute deficit figures tells you nothing.
It's worth looking at David Smith's blog for 10th November, and in particular, this section:-
"As always when it comes to household borrowing, it is necessary to look at the bigger picture, and that means mortgages, which account for 89% of household debt. The bigger picture shows that lending to individuals, including mortgages, has risen by just 1% over the past year, so is not even keeping pace with inflation.
The amount owed by individuals, £1.43 trillion on Bank figures, is lower in cash terms than in September 2008, and 15% lower in real terms. Far from going on a debt binge, households have bene quietly deleveraging."
I assume you have access to the internet and can find stories you deem 'interesting' yourself. The nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching on here in recent days is truly depressing. I honestly thought those days were over. Honestly.
Oh, come on, most people love to see politicians and prominenet people getting caught with their trousers down.
Andrew Sparrow's verdict on the 'green crap' story:
Verdict: Sometimes stories don't have to be true to be true. James Callaghan never uttered the words "Crisis? What crisis?", but the Sun headline reflected the complacency that Callaghan seemed to be displaying when he returned to the UK from a trip abroad during the winter of discontent in 1979 and so it was certainly true in spirit. And this story is in the same category. Perhaps David Cameron has not been explicitly telling colleagues to "get rid of all this green crap" (although, for reasons explained in 3 and 4, I think it more likely than not that the phrase "green crap" has passed his lips). But this is certainly a fair description of the Conservatives' current stance on the environment.
@Carlotta The nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching on here in recent days is truly depressing. I honestly thought those days were over. Honestly.
The lady doth protest too much methinks.
[snip]
That couldn't be because they are both Labour, could it?
I couldn't give a flying dooby whether David Cameron watches porn, shags escorts or snorts coke. Unless you can point to a single post of mine where I attack a politician of any shade for 'deviance' STFU before you make even more of a fool of yourself.
@tim - I was extremely happy, indeed delighted, to talk about MORI's Leader Ratings (you know, the GOLD STANDARD one). You were a little less so.
Now, what's your forecast for December? No, as Christmas is approaching, I won't be taking your money.
I see you had another poor day yesterday over a chronic inability to understand the tax system. I did my best to warn you about pontificating without knowledge, but regrettably these embarrassments did tend to happen when you heed not the sage counsel of Uncle John.
@anothernick If you think the Co-op is below the radar of the public, you haven't been glancing at the front pages of the tabloids for the last week.
At this stage, people may not be particularly linking the Co-Op story to the Labour Party, and in any case, there's always a time lag between a story breaking, and its beginning to have an impact on polls.
I have a very personal interest in the Co-Op's reputation being shot to pieces, however. For some time, the Co-Op have been aggresssively expanding into legal services, and making great play of their "ethical" reputation.
Just did a Populus opinion poll - wasn't one of the one's where they ask what you'd say to Cameron if he came and knocked on the door. A couple of interesting things.
1. The who would you vote for question prompted for Conservative, Green, UKIP, Liberal Democrats, Labour and BNP [and other], in that order [presumably random].
2. The who did you vote for in 2010 question was the same six parties in order of their vote share in 2010 [presumably not a coincidence, but 1-in-720 chance that it was].
I think random order is good for the vote intention question - more closely resembles the experience of the ballot paper. I don't think I've seen it from a pollster before.
Saw a bit of Chris Leslie (Danny Alexander's shadow) on the BBC. Silly sort of interview. Got away with a loooong rambling revision of history over the debt (and claimed the Coalition had added about £300-400bn to the 'deficit'...), then got interrupted a lot over the Flowers business.
Depressing that so many politicians and journalists don't seem to have the foggiest idea of what the deficit and debt actually are.
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Secondly and more importantly, this year’s revival of growth in Britain has resulted directly from an audacious government policy to promote huge increases in highly-leveraged mortgage debt. This mortgage-support plan is equivalent, from a macroeconomic standpoint, to a huge expansion of government borrowing. When George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, announced last March that the Treasury would provide unprecedented guarantees to support the reintroduction of 95 percent mortgages — which had been eliminated by prudential bank regulation — he immediately transformed Britain’s economic prospects, as explained here at the time.
This announcement meant that Osborne was finally accepting the fundamental principle of Keynesian economics: a country emerging from recession must increase, not reduce, its borrowings, until the point is reached where the economy’s excess savings are fully employed.'
When growth is (firmly) re-established, will the Gov't (Of whatever colour) put into practice the other part of Keynes' economics to run a surplus in the good times ?
Governments generally have done that, including the last one.
Can you tell us which years between 1997-2010 the last govt ran a surplus ?
Head over to Guido for an update on the Dromey story.
Warning : Finish your coffee first, or it will be all over your keyboard
Back to the 1980s with the illiberal PB Tories. Get out more.
Eh? Holier than thou Labour apparatchik and husband of Hatty Hateperson (who strangely is the only man thus far to win a seat from an all-women shortlist) gets caught surfing the web for large dark roosters (or some such) and if you think that's a hoot then you're illiberal and need to get out more? I don't get it.
No doubt if Osborne got caught drunk, naked, in bed with thee underage rent boys and an orange up his butt you'd be very silent. Not.
Not indeed. Point me to single post of mine where I attack a politician of ANY stripe for 'deviance'. Unless you can do that STFU.
@Carlotta The nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching on here in recent days is truly depressing. I honestly thought those days were over. Honestly.
The lady doth protest too much methinks.
[snip]
That couldn't be because they are both Labour, could it?
I couldn't give a flying dooby whether David Cameron watches porn, shags escorts or snorts coke. Unless you can point to a single post of mine where I attack a politician of any shade for 'deviance' STFU before you make even more of a fool of yourself.
Temper temper!
You are the one who needs to point to posts from PB Tories attacking Flowers for 'sexual deviance' - which is essentially your claim, is it not?
@anothernick If you think the Co-op is below the radar of the public, you haven't been glancing at the front pages of the tabloids for the last week.
At this stage, people may not be particularly linking the Co-Op story to the Labour Party, and in any case, there's always a time lag between a story breaking, and its beginning to have an impact on polls.
I have a very personal interest in the Co-Op's reputation being shot to pieces, however. For some time, the Co-Op have been aggresssively expanding into legal services, and making great play of their "ethical" reputation.
We have a bank account with the Co-op, and their customer service is rather poor, to say the least. The staff are all very friendly (but that seems to be the case with all the banks), but their Internet banking service is absolute crud. Mrs J hates it.
One of their biggest problems is the lack of branches, which means I have to go into Cambridge whenever I deal with them. The Lloyds deal would have been of great advantage to the Co-op, if only they had been in a position to take advantage of it.
We need to discuss whether we move our money or not...
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Secondly and more importantly, this year’s revival of growth in Britain has resulted directly from an audacious government policy to promote huge increases in highly-leveraged mortgage debt. This mortgage-support plan is equivalent, from a macroeconomic standpoint, to a huge expansion of government borrowing. When George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, announced last March that the Treasury would provide unprecedented guarantees to support the reintroduction of 95 percent mortgages — which had been eliminated by prudential bank regulation — he immediately transformed Britain’s economic prospects, as explained here at the time.
This announcement meant that Osborne was finally accepting the fundamental principle of Keynesian economics: a country emerging from recession must increase, not reduce, its borrowings, until the point is reached where the economy’s excess savings are fully employed.'
When growth is (firmly) re-established, will the Gov't (Of whatever colour) put into practice the other part of Keynes' economics to run a surplus in the good times ?
Governments generally have done that, including the last one.
Can you tell us which years between 1997-2010 the last govt ran a surplus ?
1998 -> 2000 the Gov't ran increasing surpluses sticking to Conservative spending plans. Then Look at 2001 -> 2007. It heads back to a deficit. The thing is Britain was NOT in a reccession at this point, we were growing. The surpluses should have kept on coming. 2001 -> 2007 is where Labour got it completely wrong.
Andrew Neil on DP pointing out to Labour's Shadow Housing Minister that if they get into power in 2015 and designated the new town sites on their first day they probably still wouldn't have started by 2020......Neil studied New Towns at University......
The Tories have now borrowed more in 3 years than Labour did in 13 years.
And before they start blaming someone else remember how they used to claim Obama wouldn't get the deficit down as fast they they would.
TBF the US voters were more helpful to Obama's deficit reduction goals than the British were to Cameron's. If they'd had a mid-term election which had handed control of parliament over to people with no sympathy for soft liberal notions that poor people should be able to buy food Cameron would probably have made more progress.
When growth is (firmly) re-established, will the Gov't (Of whatever colour) put into practice the other part of Keynes' economics to run a surplus in the good times ?
Governments generally have done that, including the last one.
Can you tell us which years between 1997-2010 the last govt ran a surplus ?
1998 -> 2000 the Gov't ran increasing surpluses sticking to Conservative spending plans. Then Look at 2001 -> 2007. It heads back to a deficit. The thing is Britain was NOT in a reccession at this point, we were growing. The surpluses should have kept on coming. 2001 -> 2007 is where Labour got it completely wrong.
I can't be arsed arguing about the past Govt, shouldn't have brought it up as beliefs are too entrenched.
Generally though, Keynesianism is about using Govt spending (and therefore surpluses and deficits) to smooth growth around trend. It's not about forever stockpiling in case of a once in a lifetime economic nuclear winter.
Comments
The world's biggest credit bubble (1998-2008) hid the underlying problem.
The story made me chuckle, but it's really a tiny story as it stands.
The Turkey story: bu**er. At least my father-in-law's retired now...
We have a development in the @JackDromeyMP story. Big development. OMG big.
Ho-hum...
http://news.stv.tv/politics/249581-how-did-your-msp-vote-full-list-from-the-same-sex-marriage-debate/
8 x Con, 6 x SNP, 1 x Lab voted against, 98-15 for.
"This Tory govt has now borrowed more in 3 years then Labour did throughout 13 years"
"Only because it had to borrow more in its first month (Labour's legacy) than Labour did in first 7 years."
This is going to revolutionise London nightlife - the five Tube lines to run 24 hours a day from 2015 pic.twitter.com/ke3FJMwjCX
Having spent two years before the election spreading horror stories about how the Tories would cut the deficit too fast, and the two years after the election going on about 'too far, too fast', the line now is that it wasn't fast enough.
Let's hope they continue with it.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/revealed-rev-paul-flowers-drink-6325809
Drink Driving conviction - plenty of dirt being thrown at him. Who is doing all the leaking?
If his voting record, or speeches, were anti-gay, then there might be a charge of hypocrisy. But on the whole, it's surely a matter for his family and friends rather than for any of us.
"Growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector was the strongest for 18 years according to the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Both the size of total order books and the pace of output growth over the past three months were the highest recorded since 1995, showing the recovery in UK manufacturing is accelerating.
The survey of nearly 350 manufacturers found that total order books relative to normal levels were their strongest since March 1995. Export order books were also very firmly above average."
http://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/2013/11/growth-in-manufacturing-output-strongest-since-1995-cbi-survey/
if, long-term prosperity leads to non-sociopaths gradually dropping out of politics in favour of DIY
then, over time long-term prosperity will lead to a high percentage of sociopaths among the political class
if, one party has a higher percentage of people dropping out of political activism e.g. because they got what they wanted i.e. decent housing and a health service, then that party's percentage of sociopaths will gradually become higher than the other parties (although the percentage will be high among all the main parties).
http://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/2013/11/growth-in-manufacturing-output-strongest-since-1995-cbi-survey/
"Growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector was the strongest for 18 years according to the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Both the size of total order books and the pace of output growth over the past three months were the highest recorded since 1995, showing the recovery in UK manufacturing is accelerating. "
The deficit should be around 5.5% of GDP in the current fiscal year, which is undoubtedly too high for comfort, but still a significant move in the right direction.
http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/witnesses-to-who-really-killed-jfk-were.html
Check out "the Nazi connections to the JFK assassination", you cant out-conspiracy the Tap, no matter how hard some try.
I doubt Harman's capable of such a change of mind, though...
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2013/nov/21/billy-bragg-dailymail?CMP=twt_fd
"Billy Bragg wants the European Commission to buy the Daily Mail, sack its editor, Paul Dacre, and use the paper to tell the truth about the European Union."
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/11/if-the-tories-are-returning-to-comfort-polling-its-a-bad-sign/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=if-the-tories-are-returning-to-comfort-polling-its-a-bad-sign&utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=6fd05d7946-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-6fd05d7946-66760489
I assume you have access to the internet and can find stories you deem 'interesting' yourself. The nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching on here in recent days is truly depressing. I honestly thought those days were over. Honestly.
Warning : Finish your coffee first, or it will be all over your keyboard
http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2013/10/10/learning-budget-lessons-from-japan-and-britain/
'So instead of a near-balanced budget, Britain will next year still have the biggest budget deficit among the advanced Western economies: 5.8 percent of GDP, against 4.6 percent in the U.S., 3.5 percent in France and 2.1 percent in Italy. Thus Britain’s better growth performance, far from demonstrating the wisdom of relentless budget cuts, has actually reflected an easing of fiscal austerity and a belated acceptance of much wider deficits than European and U.S. politicians seem willing to tolerate.
Secondly and more importantly, this year’s revival of growth in Britain has resulted directly from an audacious government policy to promote huge increases in highly-leveraged mortgage debt. This mortgage-support plan is equivalent, from a macroeconomic standpoint, to a huge expansion of government borrowing. When George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, announced last March that the Treasury would provide unprecedented guarantees to support the reintroduction of 95 percent mortgages — which had been eliminated by prudential bank regulation — he immediately transformed Britain’s economic prospects, as explained here at the time.
This announcement meant that Osborne was finally accepting the fundamental principle of Keynesian economics: a country emerging from recession must increase, not reduce, its borrowings, until the point is reached where the economy’s excess savings are fully employed.'
There's just too much variation. I take note, look at the trends and any other subsidiary data aside from the headline VI, and just laugh at the comments.
However individual polls are sometimes the grit in the site's oyster, especially when OGH notices some interesting subsidiary data.
However you are right that the Tories seem to be trying as hard as possible to remind people that Cameron's "modernisation" was only skin deep - if today's reports are to be believed the "greenest government ever" actually thinks the green agenda is "crap".
The criticism of Flowers has been for his manifest unsuitability for Chairmanship of the COOP bank, his drug taking and the failure of those who appointed him to either discover or take account of someone whose serial risk-taking marked him out as unsuitable for his job.
For reasons best known to yourself you are claiming it is 'nasty, socially conservative, curtain twitching' - erecting a straw man of 'You're all mean coz he's gay' - hoping his manifest failings will go un-noticed.
On Dromey, the irony of a prominent Front Bench anti-pornography campaigner's spouse tweeting apparently appreciatively about pornography also seems to have passed you by.
That couldn't be because they are both Labour, could it?
It isn't actually anything new - just a shot of the other tweet that was also a 'coincidence'.....
There are no elections coming up in the next few months, and Labour have a fairly stable lead. There's really not much to say. I expect it'll change in the run-up to the May Euro / LE and, of course, the Referendum.
2014 should be a much more interesting year on PB. And hopefully it will be profitable for those of you who bet.
LOL
No doubt if Osborne got caught drunk, naked, in bed with thee underage rent boys and an orange up his butt you'd be very silent. Not.
Keynesianism isn't about running a perpetual surplus just so you can say you did next time a once in a generation global financial crisis occurs.
"You cannot make the weak stronger by making the strong weaker"
"As always when it comes to household borrowing, it is necessary to look at the bigger picture, and that means mortgages, which account for 89% of household debt. The bigger picture shows that lending to individuals, including mortgages, has risen by just 1% over the past year, so is not even keeping pace with inflation.
The amount owed by individuals, £1.43 trillion on Bank figures, is lower in cash terms than in September 2008, and 15% lower in real terms. Far from going on a debt binge, households have bene quietly deleveraging."
LOL
Not really... its already been debunked.. do keep up.
Verdict: Sometimes stories don't have to be true to be true. James Callaghan never uttered the words "Crisis? What crisis?", but the Sun headline reflected the complacency that Callaghan seemed to be displaying when he returned to the UK from a trip abroad during the winter of discontent in 1979 and so it was certainly true in spirit. And this story is in the same category. Perhaps David Cameron has not been explicitly telling colleagues to "get rid of all this green crap" (although, for reasons explained in 3 and 4, I think it more likely than not that the phrase "green crap" has passed his lips). But this is certainly a fair description of the Conservatives' current stance on the environment.
So, good scoop.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/21/call-clegg-live-politics-blog#block-528de669e4b0a0e897913cc3
Now, what's your forecast for December? No, as Christmas is approaching, I won't be taking your money.
I see you had another poor day yesterday over a chronic inability to understand the tax system. I did my best to warn you about pontificating without knowledge, but regrettably these embarrassments did tend to happen when you heed not the sage counsel of Uncle John.
I have a very personal interest in the Co-Op's reputation being shot to pieces, however. For some time, the Co-Op have been aggresssively expanding into legal services, and making great play of their "ethical" reputation.
1. The who would you vote for question prompted for Conservative, Green, UKIP, Liberal Democrats, Labour and BNP [and other], in that order [presumably random].
2. The who did you vote for in 2010 question was the same six parties in order of their vote share in 2010 [presumably not a coincidence, but 1-in-720 chance that it was].
I think random order is good for the vote intention question - more closely resembles the experience of the ballot paper. I don't think I've seen it from a pollster before.
Saw a bit of Chris Leslie (Danny Alexander's shadow) on the BBC. Silly sort of interview. Got away with a loooong rambling revision of history over the debt (and claimed the Coalition had added about £300-400bn to the 'deficit'...), then got interrupted a lot over the Flowers business.
Depressing that so many politicians and journalists don't seem to have the foggiest idea of what the deficit and debt actually are.
You are the one who needs to point to posts from PB Tories attacking Flowers for 'sexual deviance' - which is essentially your claim, is it not?
Of course it has. Technical fault wasn't it?
That saves all that bother about speculating about his marriage like for Dromey doesn't it?
Since we are speculating so freely then how about we all start speculating on several tory cabinet ministers with regard to "lavender marriages" ?
Hmmm?
Still feeling all self-righteous and full of the John Major Back to Basics 'spirit' are we?
Best not, eh?
*chortle*
One of their biggest problems is the lack of branches, which means I have to go into Cambridge whenever I deal with them. The Lloyds deal would have been of great advantage to the Co-op, if only they had been in a position to take advantage of it.
We need to discuss whether we move our money or not...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25028786
Generally though, Keynesianism is about using Govt spending (and therefore surpluses and deficits) to smooth growth around trend. It's not about forever stockpiling in case of a once in a lifetime economic nuclear winter.
Here's the picture - It is important to note recession dates also though when Gov't spending thereafter will naturally increase.
Cross reference to here:
Recessions: 1980, 1990-91, Gov't spending increases slightly and/or remains flattish thereafter.
Looking at the surplus/deficit chart you'd have thought there would have to be a recession in ~2001, except there wasn't.