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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “B
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead
This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that yesterday’s 4% CON deficit might have been a blip though all changes are within the margin of error.
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Please don't discuss Andy Coulson or phone hacking directly or indirectly.
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My memory recalls that there was a split in the very final polls, but I'm talking about taking more than a single data point.
(Also, I know the data is out there but would need some farming but I'm interested in how the Best PM values have changed over the parliament and possibly compared to 2005-2010?)
None of this alters the politics which is that the Tories will seek to extract maximum political embarrassment for their opponents from this mess - just as a Labour would do.
It is hypocritical to suggest otherwise.
Last thread was funny. If a connection between Flowers and Falkirk is uncovered, will PBTories implode?
The Flowers story is essentially a very sad story about a very personal fall from grace. Nothing that has been revealed so far really implicates the Labour leadership and unless something emerges which very clearly fixes Miliband and Balls with knowledge of Flowers' misconduct (and I am not referring here to his earlier public misdemeanour) and/or their personal intervention in his appointment by the Co-op, I don't think this story will be particularly damaging to Labour.
Nor, on the facts of the story alone, should it be. It is too much of a stretch to blame party leaders for the personal failings of local councillors or people they appoint to advisory boards or accept donations from (or people connected to companies they accept donations from, to be accurate).
However, it is difficult to have any sympathy for Labour. [In the past t]hey have screamed for public inquiries, resignations and admissions of terrible judgement. The parallels are clear. Schadenfeude. As some of us said at the time, Labour should have been much more circumspect in their previous criticism. Perhaps this will give them cause for thought and instil some much-needed humility. Perhaps.
Perhaps more significantly, there is now a theme emerging of Labour struggling to accept their own inadequacies. There is no question that if the facts of Falkirk and the Co-op were reversed, Labour would be having a field day. It would be as clear as day to them that the matters should be investigated, publicly, and the politicians held to account. It is not sufficient to say that this is just politics, and all politicians are opportunists, though that is true to an extent; we are all inclined to be more forgiving of ourselves and more lenient on those we are close to. If Labour lived up to the values they claim to espouse they would be accepting the need for both matters to be investigated, urgently and publicly. Otherwise the charge of hypocrisy weighs heavily on them.
Undercover soldiers 'killed unarmed civilians in Belfast'
Soldiers from an undercover unit used by the British army in Northern Ireland killed unarmed civilians, former members have told BBC One's Panorama.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24987465
Nick Pallmer it does not matter that they are not impacting on voting intention, the corrosion in public
trust in all parties and major institutions is deeply damaging for politics and pubic life as a whole.
I am intrested in politics, but I have been sickened by the MP expenses , bankers, how leaders in all walks of business never take resposibility then walk away, with large amounts of cash, destroying ordinary people jobs in the process on many occasions.
The cynicism is growing everywhere.
Politicians like Michael Heseline who acted to stop innocent people going to jail regarding the Scott enquiry even though it would embarrass his own government, seem a long way from todays standards.
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Which is to be expected; after several terms any govt is bound to fray at the edges, cross the line here and there. Power corrupts, etc...
But this wasn't the case in 2010 - economic incompetence by the incumbents, balanced by insufficient detoxification of the Cons brought us the coalition.
The interesting thing here therefore is that only now is the sleaze emerging about the last Labour govt. Instead of it getting washed up in the general GE2010 defeat, it's front and centre of campaigning now. For Lab's GE2015 prospects, therefore, it couldn't have come at a worse time.
2) There have been no attacks.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said 160,854 cars were built in the UK last month, up 17% from October 2012.
It said the change represented the biggest year-on-year increase to date in 2013.
The growth was largely driven by demand for cars to sell in Britain rather than for export, the SMMT said.
UK demand for new cars has been helped by cheap finance deals and rising consumer confidence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25030372
You seem to keep on forgetting that the moderators aren't on the site 24/7
In future if you violate this, you may find all your posts automatically go into the pending folder, and released as and when the moderators are on site.
Then you may finally appreciate that the moderators are not on 24/7 pressing f5.
Should we not apply the same rules to the Flowers story?
Can't he also sue for libel?
You're right, it's getting publicity because it's a dream story for the media. We all know people can be appointed because of their connections and if the situation were reversed, as it easily could have been, Ed would be all over the airwaves, frothing at the mouth.
Slightly off-topic, but when I moved from the pharmaceutical industry to the civil service, I noticed one particular change that I thought odd. There was a push to promote more women owing to the disparity in the ratios at the top. I met many very talented women there, yet they nearly all languished in obscurity. Most of the women promoted were the ... how shall I put this gently .. not the brightest. I thought it was deliberate for a while, but with hindsight, I think it was an example of group-think.
They tended to had similar social and political views and that took precedence over competency. The males may have been equally useless in many cases but were a more mixed bunch.
I'm no sociologist but maybe with women being such strange, exotic creatures, they preferred to have elements of familiarity to naked brain power.
And suffice to say the broader electorate see quite enough mud and toxicity sticking to the Tories to cancel out any that comes Labour's way.
No single party is sleaze free.
However I agree if the cynicism effects voter turnout at the GE in 2015, it will disproportionately effect Labour voters,especially the ones who believe in more ethics regarding how business is conducted.
Rogue reverend, a loner, no-one knew anything, nothing to see...
Labour sets up FSA, which is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard. The whole Flowers thing shows up the failings of Brown's regulatory empire, the laziness of financial journalism, and Nelsonian blindness at The Co-Op. CRB checks:- only for the little people who work with children not politicians.
As for all the crap about sleeze in Major's government, it is a source of amazement that so little shit stuck to the fans from 1997.
1) There's no current ongoing trial with Flowers
2) There's no blackout on mentioning Flowers in the House of Commons
3) Comments that have been perceived to be problematic re Flowers have been removed and posters warned.
4) If posts go too far re Flowers, we will review the site policy on Flowers.
Whenever a politician / party defends themselves, the default public assumption is always a vague sense that they've been up to no good, no matter what the party or details of the issue.
Sticking to a clear and coherent message seems to be beyond the incompetent fop's abilities.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10462871/Its-no-coincidence-the-MPs-found-guilty-of-fiddling-are-all-Labour.html
"It’s no coincidence the MPs found guilty of fiddling are all Labour
The party may take the moral high ground, but lying and cheating are deep in its DNA"
"I believe that it is Labour’s belief in its own higher morality – what Bertrand Russell called the “superior virtue of the oppressed” – that has led to its downfall. "
JJ, i've forgotten how to read PMs here - probably best to email me on nickmp1 at aol dot com.
The House of Commons adopted its current sub judice rule (see p 19) by resolution in
2001 following the Report of the Joint Committee on Parliamentary Privilege in 1999. The
House of Lords has a parallel resolution. The rule prevents reference being made in
proceedings in the Chamber or in committees to cases which are active in the courts (as
defined in the resolution). The rule does not apply when the House is considering primary
or secondary legislation, and the Chair has discretion to disapply it on other occasions
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200405/cmselect/cmproced/125/125.pdf
Most recent YouGovs, Labour share / lead
40/8
38/4
39/7
39/6
40/8
39/8
42/10
40/7
39/5
39/6
Labour frontbencher 'favourited' explicit gay porn tweets
Jack Dromey, who is married to Harriet Harman, blames his links to gay porn sites on a “technological mix up"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10464348/Labour-frontbencher-favourited-explicit-gay-porn-tweets.html
Harriet Harman's MP husband left red-faced after adding gay porn Tweet to his 'favourites'
Labour MP Jack Dromey linked to a tweet about well-endowed black men
Harriet Harman's husband made a 'technological mix up', spokesman said
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2511016/Harriet-Harmans-MP-husband-Jack-Dromey-adds-gay-porn-Tweet-favourites.html#ixzz2lGtZgfmL
No idea how to rad the first test at the moment. England got off to a great start but we are batting second, Cook is very defensive minded and there could be some weather.
Aus +0.00
Eng +9.79
Draw -5.90
Stats suggest the draw price is too short, but something niggles that it isn't so I'm on a very small (But green) book at the moment.
I was anticipating Aus to be on maybe 270-5 when I woke up. Annoyed I didn't take more of the 6.0 on offer for England !
Sounds about right. If I was forced to put my house on one or the other, I'd struggle to choose.
MaggieLavan @MaggieLavan 15m
Last year the Co-op paid £64million in dividends to its members. This year there will be no dividend. Labour will still get it's donation
Employment levels and order books in France both fell at the sharpest rate since May, underlining the weakness of the recovery in the eurozone’s second-biggest economy.
The French economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and Markit Economics, which compiles the survey, said Thursday’s data suggest the country could fall back into recession.
www.ft.com
Am
Oz +2
Eng +102
Draw - 104
Royal Mail share sale did not contribute to improved public finances
09.49 Last week that ONS decided that the £2bn netted by the government for selling its 60pc stake in Royal Mail should not reduce headline government borrowing- meaning the public finances improved even without this boost.
So where does the cash go ?
As an ex journo I'm struggling to work out why the Labour Party is being blamed for regulatory failures at the co-op bank."
FSA set up by Brown, fitness of Labour Councillors for the job.
David Smith @dsmitheconomics 4m
Public sector borrowing in October marginally lower than a year ago but running total April-October is £5.8bn down: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_335634.pdf …
It reduces total debt but not current borrowing - as its a non-recurring item. It does however reduce the net cash requirement. Interestingly the share transfer to employees actually counted against government borrowing, increasing PSNB by £331m.
Tax receipts continuing to look good and looking at the PSNB trend, we might even see sub £90bn in borrowing.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces medium term forecasts of the public finances twice a year (normally in March and December). The latest published forecasts were that:-
• PSNB ex in 2011/12 would be £126.0 billion;
• PSNB ex in 2012/13 would be £86.5 billion;
• PSNB ex in 2012/13 after removing the impacts of the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan
and the transfers from the Asset Purchase Facility would be £120.9 billion;
OBR will publish their revised forecasts for the fiscal year 2013/14 on December 5th 2013.
This statistical bulletin reports the latest estimates of outturn as:
• PSNB ex in 2011/12 was £118.5 billion;
• PSNB ex in 2012/13 was £80.6 billion;
• PSNB ex in 2012/13 after removing the impacts of the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan
and the transfers from the Asset Purchase Facility was £115.0 billion;
2012/13 PSNB down by £0.4bn to £115.0bn
2013/14 ytd up by £0.1bn
Chengdu somewhere in the middle:
Chengdu: https://maps.google.com/maps?q=chengdu&hl=en&ll=30.664849,103.985848&spn=1.020595,1.234589&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=59.206892,79.013672&hnear=Chengdu,+Sichuan,+China&t=m&z=10&layer=c&cbll=30.664849,103.985848&cbp=12,0,,0,0&photoid=po-26332636
Kunming: https://maps.google.com/maps?q=kunming&hl=en&ll=24.977344,102.712555&spn=0.486734,1.234589&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=59.206892,79.013672&hnear=Kunming,+Yunnan,+China&t=m&z=10&layer=c&cbll=24.977077,102.712008&cbp=11,0,,0,0&photoid=po-25824994
Xian - And this is exactly how I remember it: https://maps.google.com/maps?q=xian+china&hl=en&ll=34.271971,108.996735&spn=0.443723,1.234589&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=59.206892,79.013672&hnear=Xi'an,+Shaanxi,+China&t=m&z=10&layer=c&cbll=34.271669,108.996756&cbp=11,0,,0,0&photoid=po-28567143
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowloon_Walled_City
http://www.archdaily.com/361831/
Shanghai Pudong - pretty dramatic.
Or in another words England gets 3% LESS than average, Wales 10% above average. Scotland 16% above, and N Ireland 24% above, identifiably..
But pictures like this can be misleading, don't you think? - like pictures of Tube crowds which make us all look like ants. As an individual you don't really feel like an ant. I grew up in a tower block - I was just concerned with the 8th floor, and didn't really care if there were another 5 or 50 floors.
Basically in highly-populated cities one has to build upwards or outwards - there are no other options unless we want to get into troglodysm.
1. It was a mistake.
2. He likes gay porn.
My response to 1&2 is "so what"?
Give it a break. It's purile.
And all ticket offices to shut....
I'm quite glad that I've never had anything to do with Twitter ...
Married male MP advertises liking for gay porn on social media.... Think it's worth a mention. No one has criticised him on grounds of moral outrage, it's jut funny when people are caught out. It's you that needs to lighten up
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/nov/20/harpercollins-charlie-redmayne-publishers-storytelling-digital
Next story on Guido might not look good for JD.
Mathematicians tell us that the statistical probability against a coin coming up heads six times in a row is 64-1. In other words there is only one chance in 64 that Labour’s score of 6/6 was a coincidence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10462871/Its-no-coincidence-the-MPs-found-guilty-of-fiddling-are-all-Labour.html
If we take the 2005 starting position of Labour holding 355 out of 646 seats, the correct figure is a 2.7% chance that all six would Labour, if the null hypothesis is that there was no systematic bias towards Labour MPs being more corrupt than other MPs, i.e. a one in 37 chance. (355/646 for the first, 354/645 for the second etc, multiplied together). This assumes we include Sinn Fein MPs, which I think is right because they claimed expenses even though they didn't take part in parliamentary debates and votes.
Still statisically significant by the most commonly-used assessment, of course.
No one has taken the moral high ground with Dromey, everyone is, perfectly normally, laughing at someone getting caught in a compromising situation. So what?
You have made it clear that you are groovily relaxed about it all, and that you've missed the point.
I don't spend my time telling other posters what to post.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2013/nov/20/mental-health-antidepressants-global-trends