If the UK does not leave the EU on 31st October, to what extent do you think each of the following will be to blame? is a leading question, for a start.
Following that up with a series of Do you agree or disagree with these statements? hardly improves matters.
Does Boris need a No Deal manifesto? He can just have a No Backstop or No Deal manifesto. Which obviously IS a No Deal manifesto, but it gives the One Nation types plausible deniability.
Only if they are terminally thick and no-one asks the obvious question - of how do you have a deal without a backstop when the EU say that it isn't possible?
By having a Northern Ireland only backstop if you win a Tory majority and don't need the DUP anymore
Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
Small leads are always interpreted by the extremists and fanboys that support Bozo as being "clear support". They believe in the absolute tyranny of the tiny majority.
Such as the thread header?
Well yes, it is a reversal of the much trumpeted result in 2016, that is said to be the immovable "will-o-the-people". I am not suggesting it is an indication of "clear support" like Mr Johnson's No1 fan who frequents this site was suggesting about one poll from that paragon of impartiality, the Daily Telegraph.
UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.
That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously
The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
The EU have a choice here. If you erect the same trade barriers between 2 economies of the same level of development then the disruption to trade would be equivalent, so the reduction in trade the same to each. The longer the EU take to reduce those barriers the more they will lose of their goods trade surplus, especially if the UK is signing trade deals with other countries. Will the EU be sensible, I doubt it, so we will pivot to the rest of the world and the EU will also lose our political support as well.
“Lose our political support”? They can read you know. We’ve withdrawn it already. Cummings (and his blonde catemite passing as our PM) has pissed away all our political capital. That’s baked in. We’ve set ourselves up as an enemy already with our WW2 rhetoric and threats to withdraw security cooperation. It’s not shifted them at all.
Your trade surplus point has been made (in various permutations). on numerous occasions, from BMW banging on Merkel’s door, onwards and has not come through for us yet. Not worked.
As for “pivot to the rest of the world”, we cannot physically shift ourselves. Geography means that, even at the height of the Empire, even during the Continental System, we relied to a great degree on trade with Europe. Not as much as, say, Germany, but they are not leaving the EU.
It’s the same old reheated tripe.
Now that no deal is viewed as serious Industry in the EU27 is getting vocal.
Perhaps we need to get beyond the idea that ANYTHING might settle this. Even if, miraculously, we get a deal and it passes and we Brexit, then millions of Remainers, having come so close to their prize, will feel cheated, and the debate will rumble on, in reverse, and we'd surely have another vote - back in! - as soon as the Tories lost power.
Brexit is Forever. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is. it may subside in a decade or two, like Quebec Indy, but for the foreseeable, we are stuck with it.
In that light, we have to do what's best for the country, as things stand, whatever happens in the future.
So a new referendum might be the least worst option, if we can't get a passable deal.
I agree we are stuck with it. The trouble is that a referendum seems likely to lead to a no-deal crash-out, as things stand, for the reasons @Gabs2 gives.
The fundamental difference between the two sides' strategic position is that to stay member of a club you need the goodwill of the club, while to stay out you do not. A crystalized divide that leads to us flip-flopping between wanting to stay and trying to exit with change of government screws the goodwill.
The optimal strategic position for pro-European people was always to cement the legitimate process for making the decision and shown good grace in accepting losing. That meant when we win the demographic battle in a decade, a party could campaign on a Rejoin referendum and with a majority and reenter on that basis. A handful of Leavers would moan but would look ridiculous even to the moderates on their own side.
There is a sizeable minority of voters who voted remain and think it was a mistake to leave but nevertheless believe the result should be respected. It is difficult to assess how they might vote in a second referendum or indeed if the right question has been asked from their point of view in opinion polling on the subject
I'm one of those. I think the 2016 Ref mandates Brexit, Deal or No Deal. But if we do get Ref2 I will vote Remain again.
I also think Remain would beat Labour Deal very easily. So easily that it would look like a fix.
This, not the nonsense of it being 'hard to understand', is the biggest negative of Labour's Brexit position.
UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.
That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously
The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
The EU have a choice here. If you erect the same trade barriers between 2 economies of the same level of development then the disruption to trade would be equivalent, so the reduction in trade the same to each. The longer the EU take to reduce those barriers the more they will lose of their goods trade surplus, especially if the UK is signing trade deals with other countries. Will the EU be sensible, I doubt it, so we will pivot to the rest of the world and the EU will also lose our political support as well.
“Lose our political support”? They can read you know. We’ve withdrawn it already. Cummings (and his blonde catemite passing as our PM) has pissed away all our political capital. That’s baked in. We’ve set ourselves up as an enemy already with our WW2 rhetoric and threats to withdraw security cooperation. It’s not shifted them at all.
Your trade surplus point has been made (in various permutations). on numerous occasions, from BMW banging on Merkel’s door, onwards and has not come through for us yet. Not worked.
As for “pivot to the rest of the world”, we cannot physically shift ourselves. Geography means that, even at the height of the Empire, even during the Continental System, we relied to a great degree on trade with Europe. Not as much as, say, Germany, but they are not leaving the EU.
It’s the same old reheated tripe.
Now that no deal is viewed as serious Industry in the EU27 is getting vocal.
Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
Small leads are always interpreted by the extremists and fanboys that support Bozo as being "clear support". They believe in the absolute tyranny of the tiny majority.
Such as the thread header?
Well yes, it is a reversal of the much trumpeted result in 2016, that is said to be the immovable "will-o-the-people". I am not suggesting it is an indication of "clear support" like Mr Johnson's No1 fan who frequents this site was suggesting about one poll from that paragon of impartiality, the Daily Telegraph.
If the UK does not leave the EU on 31st October, to what extent do you think each of the following will be to blame? is a leading question, for a start.
Following that up with a series of Do you agree or disagree with these statements? hardly improves matters.
You should see the "People vs parliament" poll the "People's vote" lot put out recently
Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.
The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.
That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.
It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
I say the polls are stuffed with political obsessives who try to predict the result rather than give their opinion.
Does Boris need a No Deal manifesto? He can just have a No Backstop or No Deal manifesto. Which obviously IS a No Deal manifesto, but it gives the One Nation types plausible deniability.
Only if they are terminally thick and no-one asks the obvious question - of how do you have a deal without a backstop when the EU say that it isn't possible?
By having a Northern Ireland only backstop if you win a Tory majority and don't need the DUP anymore
Ah, the "fuck the DUP" strategy. Along similar lines to "fuck business" and "fuck absolutely everyone" who isn't a paid up member of the headbanging, swivel eyed, frothingly xenophobic new elite
One in five members eligible to vote in the leadership election had joined to do so. However "Sharing the aims and values of the Conservative Party might not be the main reason they joined, but that doesn't mean they don't, and also doesn't mean they aren't still loyal Conservatives. The vast majority of them voted for the party in 2017 (92%) and in 2015 (71%)."
Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
Small leads are always interpreted by the extremists and fanboys that support Bozo as being "clear support". They believe in the absolute tyranny of the tiny majority.
Such as the thread header?
Well yes, it is a reversal of the much trumpeted result in 2016, that is said to be the immovable "will-o-the-people". I am not suggesting it is an indication of "clear support" like Mr Johnson's No1 fan who frequents this site was suggesting about one poll from that paragon of impartiality, the Daily Telegraph.
Oh I see
Glad you can. It would seem you can no longer claim to (just about) have the "will-o-the-people" on the side of your mad little scheme. Sorry about that!
UK will still owe money to EU even if it leaves with no deal, says budget commissioner Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.
That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously
The House of Lords addressed this. There would be about 5% of the total that is legally obliged. The rest is not.
Do we want a trade deal with them post No Deal or not? Because the EU isn’t going to give a monkeys about a legal opinion from the HL if so.
The EU have a choice here. If you erect the same trade barriers between 2 economies of the same level of development then the disruption to trade would be equivalent, so the reduction in trade the same to each. The longer the EU take to reduce those barriers the more they will lose of their goods trade surplus, especially if the UK is signing trade deals with other countries. Will the EU be sensible, I doubt it, so we will pivot to the rest of the world and the EU will also lose our political support as well.
“Lose our political support”? They can read you know. We’ve withdrawn it already. Cummings (and his blonde catemite passing as our PM) has pissed away all our political capital. That’s baked in. We’ve set ourselves up as an enemy already with our WW2 rhetoric and threats to withdraw security cooperation. It’s not shifted them at all.
Your trade surplus point has been made (in various permutations). on numerous occasions, from BMW banging on Merkel’s door, onwards and has not come through for us yet. Not worked.
As for “pivot to the rest of the world”, we cannot physically shift ourselves. Geography means that, even at the height of the Empire, even during the Continental System, we relied to a great degree on trade with Europe. Not as much as, say, Germany, but they are not leaving the EU.
It’s the same old reheated tripe.
Now that no deal is viewed as serious Industry in the EU27 is getting vocal.
Providing by 'clear support' we are to understand 'MOE differences between a panel split down the middle', then yes. Sounds about right.
Small leads are always interpreted by the extremists and fanboys that support Bozo as being "clear support". They believe in the absolute tyranny of the tiny majority.
Such as the thread header?
Well yes, it is a reversal of the much trumpeted result in 2016, that is said to be the immovable "will-o-the-people". I am not suggesting it is an indication of "clear support" like Mr Johnson's No1 fan who frequents this site was suggesting about one poll from that paragon of impartiality, the Daily Telegraph.
Oh I see
Glad you can. It would seem you can no longer claim to (just about) have the "will-o-the-people" on the side of your mad little scheme. Sorry about that!
No sorry, I mean I see that you are calling OGH an extremist and a fan boy. Brave 💪🏻
He will run on a No Deal manifesto if the EU refuse to remove the backstop from any Deal, MPs who refuse to back that will just be deselected and replaced with candidates who will
I don’t think the no no dealers are the problem to which he alludes
One in five members eligible to vote in the leadership election had joined to do so. However "Sharing the aims and values of the Conservative Party might not be the main reason they joined, but that doesn't mean they don't, and also doesn't mean they aren't still loyal Conservatives. The vast majority of them voted for the party in 2017 (92%) and in 2015 (71%)."
I don't see an issue there.
The party literally advertises voting in leadership elections as a reason to join the party so how is it entryism for people who support and vote for the party to join for that reason? https://www.conservatives.com/join
That's not like SWP voters joining the Labour Party or UKIP voters joining the Tories. That would be entryism.
If I was gonna mimic Britain Elects, very very carefully, I would put out waaaaaay more amusing fake polls than that. What's the point? How do they benefit? It's not even funny.
If I was gonna mimic Britain Elects, very very carefully, I would put out waaaaaay more amusing fake polls than that. What's the point? How do they benefit? It's not even funny.
Tsk.
The reaction on here did give me a passing sense of amusement although perhaps not enough to justify the existence of the account I admit
If I was gonna mimic Britain Elects, very very carefully, I would put out waaaaaay more amusing fake polls than that. What's the point? How do they benefit? It's not even funny.
Tsk.
The reaction on here did give me a passing sense of amusement although perhaps not enough to justify the existence of the account I admit
Yes, they've gone to great lengths to create a clever spoof account, and then they just punted out a poll which is very plausible, on current trends, and barely raises a titter.
If I was gonna mimic Britain Elects, very very carefully, I would put out waaaaaay more amusing fake polls than that. What's the point? How do they benefit? It's not even funny.
Tsk.
Most people who try to do something well fail, and do it badly, but it's not that they intend to do it badly, and it had most of us fooled at first.
Take writing. There are lots more people who try and fail to get published than there are those with, say, at least two pseudonyms for having their books published in different genres.
Nah I think this is perfectly consistent with the polling, the 47% in favour of still leaving consistently add through to the sum of the Brexit + Tory scores. They're more lopsided than the Lib Dem + Labour which garner a similar total and also have Greens and national party votes to broadly compete with.
Leave Labour + Tory remain exist but likely cancel in my opinion, the former being particularly prevalent in the North East & other Labour heartlands and latter in the home counties.
Explains why Leave want a GE and Remain a 2nd referendum.
Neither agree with the other, so we have stalemate.
One in five members eligible to vote in the leadership election had joined to do so. However "Sharing the aims and values of the Conservative Party might not be the main reason they joined, but that doesn't mean they don't, and also doesn't mean they aren't still loyal Conservatives. The vast majority of them voted for the party in 2017 (92%) and in 2015 (71%)."
I don't see an issue there.
The party literally advertises voting in leadership elections as a reason to join the party so how is it entryism for people who support and vote for the party to join for that reason? https://www.conservatives.com/join
That's not like SWP voters joining the Labour Party or UKIP voters joining the Tories. That would be entryism.
Entryism is a weird concept. If a political party and its membership evolves to deal with current affairs, isn't that political parties working as they should? Obviously that will mean some loyal previous members will now feel homeless, and so will their politicians. I didn't like the old Conservative party very much, and I certainly don't like it at the moment. The LDs in the early 00s seemed like a good reformist vehicle that took good left wing positions against Labour and moderated the Conservatives, then the Orange Bookers won when coalition called, and now Brexit is the only issue.
The only solution to entryism is 1) abolishing parties or 2) making membership of a party mandatory. As long as they are self selecting groups there is always the opportunity for members with one view to outnumber other members and change the direction of a party against the will of the "real" members...
Nah I think this is perfectly consistent with the polling, the 47% in favour of still leaving consistently add through to the sum of the Brexit + Tory scores. They're more lopsided than the Lib Dem + Labour which garner a similar total and also have Greens and national party votes to broadly compete with.
Leave Labour + Tory remain exist but likely cancel in my opinion, the former being particularly prevalent in the North East & other Labour heartlands and latter in the home counties.
Explains why Leave want a GE and Remain a 2nd referendum.
Neither agree with the other, so we have stalemate.
The remain side has clearly established that parliament is indeed sovereign, so long term it's the GE results that likely matter.
Whoever it was predicted the Tories hitting 40 - philip the Brexiteer I think? - deserves a brand new coconut.
It's a fake account?
Doesn't seem to be?
Ah: edit: yes. But why bother doing that? It's a clever fake, but it seems pointless.
Someone trying to game the bookies?
A potentially useful resource for confusing the already confused ?
Not every audience is as sceptical as PB thread denizens.
For a laugh I once attributed something to Nigel Farage that was actually said by David Cameron to see who would fall into the trap, and the person who did was so traumatised that they had the thread deleted...
"Explains why Leave want a GE and Remain a 2nd referendum."
Because Remainers want a second chance - a free hit. And Leavers recognise that MPs are the ones out of step.
Not quite - Leavers think MPs are out of step with their opinions.
Personally I think Parliament represents the British population accurately at the moment - there is no defined opinion and we can't make our mind up over what we want, just what we don't want.
I can't say many up here have any sympathy for Londoners inconvenienced by RX.
A classic case of shitting on your own doorstep.
I was there on Monday and had a very different experience, most people I talked to, tourists and locals, seemed very much in favour. But this is self selecting from people willing to talk to protesters, and the people you talk to may be self selected as people angry at the inconvenience.
Farewell then. Thanks for serving the party, we'll select some new candidates.
You represent the narrow minded view of the entryists that have destroyed a once great political party that prided itself in a broad base.
Conservative Party 1834 - 2019 RIP. Murdered by a cabal of fascists led by Boris Johnson
Nope it is you who would murder the Conservative Party by refusing to deliver Brexit and thus ensuring it collapses behind the Brexit Party as it did in the European Parliament elections and in the polls after May extended
The Conservative Party campaigned for Remain. As did you.
I would have thought he'll be running on his deal proposal but with No Deal as his back stop.
Effectively it will be a No Deal manifesto because the EU have said his proposal is a non-starter but it will be close enough to May's manifesto (no deal is better than a bad deal )for the likes of Green to be able stay in the tent.
There is a very real risk, in that case, of the new parliament - even with a narrow Tory majority - being as useless as this one in deciding what it's willing to legislate for.
Boris needs a majority of hard-as-nails headbangers who'll follow him over the cliff, or it's EURef2. If he fudges to keep those 60 happy, he'll never get it through.
(Don't get me wrong.. he's equally feckered if he kicks them out!)
Nah I think this is perfectly consistent with the polling, the 47% in favour of still leaving consistently add through to the sum of the Brexit + Tory scores. They're more lopsided than the Lib Dem + Labour which garner a similar total and also have Greens and national party votes to broadly compete with.
Leave Labour + Tory remain exist but likely cancel in my opinion, the former being particularly prevalent in the North East & other Labour heartlands and latter in the home counties.
Explains why Leave want a GE and Remain a 2nd referendum.
Neither agree with the other, so we have stalemate.
The remain side has clearly established that parliament is indeed sovereign, so long term it's the GE results that likely matter.
Leave could easily game a solid majority via the Conservatives in a GE if they, and the Tories, really cared that much about it.
Labour may be able to frustrate it but not until Corbyn is gone.
Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.
The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.
That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.
It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
I say the polls are stuffed with political obsessives who try to predict the result rather than give their opinion.
Mate can you please answer my question, this being an interactive chat room, an' all and that's what makes it tick, of why a 2nd referendum, asking the same people a question is undemocratic. It is a closed system with a bit of leakage at one end, entry at the other and some mixing in the middle. We are not asking outsiders to come and outvote us, it is us, the UK that would be voting again. All of us. How would that be undemocratic?
Impractical perhaps (because as you say we could then vote in at the next GE a Leave party if Remain one and vice versa), sub-optimal imo certainly, but not the democratic outrage that you and, amongst others @Richard_Tyndall say it is?
Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.
The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.
That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.
It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
I say the polls are stuffed with political obsessives who try to predict the result rather than give their opinion.
Mate can you please answer my question, this being an interactive chat room, an' all and that's what makes it tick, of why a 2nd referendum, asking the same people a question is undemocratic. It is a closed system with a bit of leakage at one end, entry at the other and some mixing in the middle. We are not asking outsiders to come and outvote us, it is us, the UK that would be voting again. All of us. How would that be undemocratic?
Impractical perhaps (because as you say we could then vote in at the next GE a Leave party if Remain one and vice versa), sub-optimal imo certainly, but not the democratic outrage that you and, amongst others @Richard_Tyndall say it is?
Polls tweak their methodology, especially if it is found that they have got things wrong in the past. So presumably the newer polls on Brexit are more robust than they were before the referendum.
Unlikely, if that was the case polling errors in elections would have become unheard of rather than routine.
The reality is that outside of campaigns these are little more than a snapshot. A snapshot now that looks little different to how it did in 2015.
It's true that they do seem to overcorrect.
That would imply a greater lead for Remain, though.
Oil and gas firms "behind the use of fossil fuels" - not sure whether to say "no s**t Sherlock" or that its a nonsense.
What are we supposed to do, overnight have zero automotive industry? Had Chevron, Shell etc not been extracting the oil we've all used would we have had magical pixies fill our fuel tanks with zero carbon fuels?
Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.
The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.
That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.
It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
I say the polls are stuffed with political obsessives who try to predict the result rather than give their opinion.
Mate can you please answer my question, this being an interactive chat room, an' all and that's what makes it tick, of why a 2nd referendum, asking the same people a question is undemocratic. It is a closed system with a bit of leakage at one end, entry at the other and some mixing in the middle. We are not asking outsiders to come and outvote us, it is us, the UK that would be voting again. All of us. How would that be undemocratic?
Impractical perhaps (because as you say we could then vote in at the next GE a Leave party if Remain one and vice versa), sub-optimal imo certainly, but not the democratic outrage that you and, amongst others @Richard_Tyndall say it is?
Mate I answered it when you asked
Sorry have been literally flying around all day and thought I'd kept up. Apologies - in a line or two again pls.
Great thread header from OGH which sums up two key reasons we are in the mess we are. The polls show a clear, consistent but *small* shift to Remain since the referendum. Enough to cause real problems with implimenting the result but not enough to abandon the result. You can't force through a result a majority of people now oppose but you can't abandon election results because of a sub 5% midterm swing. Brexit is too divisive to deliver and too popular to stop.
The second is the mythologising of " the people " when it was only ever 51.9% of the people with huge numbers of very marginally cast votes on either sides.
That's why the 2017 General Election result was both an amber/red warning light that the system needed coolant and an *escape hatch*. " Oh look. The public want a compromise. "
But the political class charged on and if anything upped the ante. Now the system is exploding. Every aspect, even the Monarchy, is under strain. For all the Atlanticism of key Brexiters the US consitution with it's Electoral College, Senate, presidential veto and very high supermajorities for amending the constitution would have dealt with this much better.
If I was gonna mimic Britain Elects, very very carefully, I would put out waaaaaay more amusing fake polls than that. What's the point? How do they benefit? It's not even funny.
Tsk.
The reaction on here did give me a passing sense of amusement although perhaps not enough to justify the existence of the account I admit
Yes, they've gone to great lengths to create a clever spoof account, and then they just punted out a poll which is very plausible, on current trends, and barely raises a titter.
Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.
The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.
That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.
It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
I say the polls are stuffed with political obsessives who try to predict the result rather than give their opinion.
Mate can you please answer my question, this being an interactive chat room, an' all and that's what makes it tick, of why a 2nd referendum, asking the same people a question is undemocratic. It is a closed system with a bit of leakage at one end, entry at the other and some mixing in the middle. We are not asking outsiders to come and outvote us, it is us, the UK that would be voting again. All of us. How would that be undemocratic?
Impractical perhaps (because as you say we could then vote in at the next GE a Leave party if Remain one and vice versa), sub-optimal imo certainly, but not the democratic outrage that you and, amongst others @Richard_Tyndall say it is?
Mate I answered it when you asked
Sorry have been literally flying around all day and thought I'd kept up. Apologies - in a line or two again pls.
You cannot, as politicians, hold a referendum, telling the voters that it is THEIR choice NOT politicians, and that if we leave WE WILL LEAVE, then when you lose, fart arse around for three years voting against any form of implementing the result, then use your own attrition as evidence that the whole thing isn't worth it and the public should vote again. It is completely crazy, against any interpretation of fair play, and makes everything they said pre referendum (and just after in the case of Umunna, Allen, Wollaston, Soubry etc) a pack of lies
Great thread header from OGH which sums up two key reasons we are in the mess we are. The polls show a clear, consistent but *small* shift to Remain since the referendum. Enough to cause real problems with implimenting the result but not enough to abandon the result. You can't force through a result a majority of people now oppose but you can't abandon election results because of a sub 5% midterm swing. Brexit is too divisive to deliver and too popular to stop.
The second is the mythologising of " the people " when it was only ever 51.9% of the people with huge numbers of very marginally cast votes on either sides.
That's why the 2017 General Election result was both an amber/red warning light that the system needed coolant and an *escape hatch*. " Oh look. The public want a compromise. "
But the political class charged on and if anything upped the ante. Now the system is exploding. Every aspect, even the Monarchy, is under strain. For all the Atlanticism of key Brexiters the US consitution with it's Electoral College, Senate, presidential veto and very high supermajorities for amending the constitution would have dealt with this much better.
It is also worth mentioning that it was 51.9% of the people that voted, NOT 51.9% of the electorate.
If I was gonna mimic Britain Elects, very very carefully, I would put out waaaaaay more amusing fake polls than that. What's the point? How do they benefit? It's not even funny.
Tsk.
The reaction on here did give me a passing sense of amusement although perhaps not enough to justify the existence of the account I admit
Yes, they've gone to great lengths to create a clever spoof account, and then they just punted out a poll which is very plausible, on current trends, and barely raises a titter.
One in five members eligible to vote in the leadership election had joined to do so. However "Sharing the aims and values of the Conservative Party might not be the main reason they joined, but that doesn't mean they don't, and also doesn't mean they aren't still loyal Conservatives. The vast majority of them voted for the party in 2017 (92%) and in 2015 (71%)."
I don't see an issue there.
The party literally advertises voting in leadership elections as a reason to join the party so how is it entryism for people who support and vote for the party to join for that reason? https://www.conservatives.com/join
That's not like SWP voters joining the Labour Party or UKIP voters joining the Tories. That would be entryism.
Sorry - I was agreeing with you. I was pointing out that - when people talk about entryism to the Conservatives - it's nothing like the level of entryism to Labour. The Conservatives haven't changed, it's just the eurosceptics are the clear majority now, like it or loathe it.
Polls are just a snapshot and unreliable in their absolutes. The trend, however, is probably reliable enough. There seems to have been clear movement over time from Leave to Remain.
The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
There’s a trend towards Remain in the opinion polls, right enough. The problem is opinion polls outside of official campaigns are a complete waste of time
If the trend were much larger, and say now had Remain ahead by 4:1, then I don't think it would be a waste of time. All the nuances of sampling errors in the world wouldn't be able to explain away such a decisive shift in public opinion.
That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.
It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
I say the polls are stuffed with political obsessives who try to predict the result rather than give their opinion.
Mate can you please answer my question, this being an interactive chat room, an' all and that's what makes it tick, of why a 2nd referendum, asking the same people a question is undemocratic. It is a closed system with a bit of leakage at one end, entry at the other and some mixing in the middle. We are not asking outsiders to come and outvote us, it is us, the UK that would be voting again. All of us. How would that be undemocratic?
Impractical perhaps (because as you say we could then vote in at the next GE a Leave party if Remain one and vice versa), sub-optimal imo certainly, but not the democratic outrage that you and, amongst others @Richard_Tyndall say it is?
Mate I answered it when you asked
Sorry have been literally flying around all day and thought I'd kept up. Apologies - in a line or two again pls.
You cannot, as politicians, hold a referendum, telling the voters that it is THEIR choice NOT politicians, and that if we leave WE WILL LEAVE, then when you lose, fart arse around for three years voting against any form of implementing the result, then use your own attrition as evidence that the whole thing isn't worth it and the public should vote again. It is completely crazy, against any interpretation of fair play, and makes everything they said pre referendum (and just after in the case of Umunna, Allen, Wollaston, Soubry etc) a pack of lies
Thanks agree. But what if it's the only thing that our parliamentary system will allow?
Comments
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Telegraph_Voting_Intention_Tables_Oct_2019.pdf
If the UK does not leave the EU on 31st October, to what extent do you think each of the following will be to blame? is a leading question, for a start.
Following that up with a series of Do you agree or disagree with these statements? hardly improves matters.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/23/no-deal-brexit-will-have-seismic-impact-says-european-car-industry
The optimal strategic position for pro-European people was always to cement the legitimate process for making the decision and shown good grace in accepting losing. That meant when we win the demographic battle in a decade, a party could campaign on a Rejoin referendum and with a majority and reenter on that basis. A handful of Leavers would moan but would look ridiculous even to the moderates on their own side.
I also think Remain would beat Labour Deal very easily. So easily that it would look like a fix.
This, not the nonsense of it being 'hard to understand', is the biggest negative of Labour's Brexit position.
Fully two thirds of respondents agreed that Labour's Brexit policy is a mystery to me...
...and 44% would blame the British government, compared with 24% blaming EU leaders, for a failure to agree on the Johnson 'deal'.
Record viewing figures for BBC Parliament was 1.5 million on September 4th 2019.
Maybe you're right!
https://twitter.com/britain_elects/status/1181898607580061698?s=21
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/11/does-conservative-party-have-problem-entryism
One in five members eligible to vote in the leadership election had joined to do so. However "Sharing the aims and values of the Conservative Party might not be the main reason they joined, but that doesn't mean they don't, and also doesn't mean they aren't still loyal Conservatives. The vast majority of them voted for the party in 2017 (92%) and in 2015 (71%)."
I called it!
A wise and handsome man did write something last year about how this would go on for decades.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/03/05/car-giants-toyota-and-bmw-warn-of-no-deal-brexit-threat/
Is it Revoke? Is it Swinson? What?
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects
Amend the seats in the HofC accordingly and immediately
Ah: edit: yes. But why bother doing that? It's a clever fake, but it seems pointless.
Someone trying to game the bookies?
https://twitter.com/britainelects
https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
The party literally advertises voting in leadership elections as a reason to join the party so how is it entryism for people who support and vote for the party to join for that reason? https://www.conservatives.com/join
That's not like SWP voters joining the Labour Party or UKIP voters joining the Tories. That would be entryism.
You people...
Great bio 🤣
Why not use them instead? As accurate and reliable at a fraction of the cost
The discussion of them would be as relevant as those which people do with the real ones
Britainelects is the real poll aggregator account.
Tsk.
For me the whole thing is reasonable evidence that much of the electorate is both confused and pissed off.
The ideal frame of mind in which to make decisions which will determine the future of the country for perhaps decades...
To what extent does it matter to discussions of polls whether the polls are fake or not?
Weird.
Not every audience is as sceptical as PB thread denizens.
Take writing. There are lots more people who try and fail to get published than there are those with, say, at least two pseudonyms for having their books published in different genres.
Neither agree with the other, so we have stalemate.
Because Remainers want a second chance - a free hit. And Leavers recognise that MPs are the ones out of step.
The only solution to entryism is 1) abolishing parties or 2) making membership of a party mandatory. As long as they are self selecting groups there is always the opportunity for members with one view to outnumber other members and change the direction of a party against the will of the "real" members...
A classic case of shitting on your own doorstep.
Personally I think Parliament represents the British population accurately at the moment - there is no defined opinion and we can't make our mind up over what we want, just what we don't want.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Boris needs a majority of hard-as-nails headbangers who'll follow him over the cliff, or it's EURef2. If he fudges to keep those 60 happy, he'll never get it through.
(Don't get me wrong.. he's equally feckered if he kicks them out!)
Angry? No, but slightly amused. More power to their elbow.
Labour may be able to frustrate it but not until Corbyn is gone.
Impractical perhaps (because as you say we could then vote in at the next GE a Leave party if Remain one and vice versa), sub-optimal imo certainly, but not the democratic outrage that you and, amongst others @Richard_Tyndall say it is?
That would imply a greater lead for Remain, though.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1181900597336952838
Oil and gas firms "behind the use of fossil fuels" - not sure whether to say "no s**t Sherlock" or that its a nonsense.
What are we supposed to do, overnight have zero automotive industry? Had Chevron, Shell etc not been extracting the oil we've all used would we have had magical pixies fill our fuel tanks with zero carbon fuels?
Oil companies are responsible for a lot of the CO2 emissions?
She said that she wanted to annexe Norn Ireland.
She SAID it I tell you!
https://twitter.com/richardosman/status/1181875566380802048
which leads to the next EU disaster
https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1181923569053454336
The latter posted because it's inevitable now the first bit has started.
The refugee Syrians are causing problems in Turkey so Erdogan want's rid and he can't directly send them to the EU so...
That a fake Account would tweet a fake poll and that we would all fall for it
Amazing call
The second is the mythologising of " the people " when it was only ever 51.9% of the people with huge numbers of very marginally cast votes on either sides.
That's why the 2017 General Election result was both an amber/red warning light that the system needed coolant and an *escape hatch*. " Oh look. The public want a compromise. "
But the political class charged on and if anything upped the ante. Now the system is exploding. Every aspect, even the Monarchy, is under strain. For all the Atlanticism of key Brexiters the US consitution with it's Electoral College, Senate, presidential veto and very high supermajorities for amending the constitution would have dealt with this much better.
"Yes, Michael?"
"Get back to your proper job."
Paranoid? Maybe.
" 2nd referendum, asking the same people a question is undemocratic."
Because we had a referendum on that subject? Don't you remember, it was in all the papers,
We're still to implement the first one.