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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliamen
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle
The Evening Standard is carrying an analysis this afternoon of how opinion over Brexit has moved since the referendum in 2016. It is based on 300 polls and responses to its “Brexit right or wrong” and how respondents would now vote.
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Leave Labour + Tory remain exist but likely cancel in my opinion, the former being particularly prevalent in the North East & other Labour heartlands and latter in the home counties.
The second terror attack in Germany in three days.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1181896573858570240?s=20
The only proviso is that, if by some chance Labour managed to ditch Corbyn before the post-referendum GE and chose a vaguely electable leader instead, the polling would immediately be transformed.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/09/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-awarded-for-work-on-lithium-ion-batteries
Perhaps slightly too late to be career enhancing.
The only thing that matters is whether the key points are broadly correct. Few seem to dispute that, only the tone and precise words.
Brexit is Forever. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is. it may subside in a decade or two, like Quebec Indy, but for the foreseeable, we are stuck with it.
In that light, we have to do what's best for the country, as things stand, whatever happens in the future.
So a new referendum might be the least worst option, if we can't get a passable deal.
There are endless arguments put up by Remainers why for cultural political and economic reasons 'Remaining' is the best option.
The only argument anyone hears from 'Leavers' is that 17.5 million people voted for it. Not a single justification for their vote (which isn't surprising because nearly all were proved to be lies).
That's perhaps how the meme that Leavers are thickos gained traction
Britain would still have to pay into the EU budget until the end of next year even if it leaves without a deal on 31 October, Gunther Oettinger, the EU budget commissioner, has said. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels he said the UK was fully signed up to the EU budget for 2020 - its final year of EU contributions.
That popping sound you can hear is a thousand Brexists' internal carotid arteries rupturing simultaneously
I'm sure that's not the case in this instance.
Turnout would be well down on 2016 as well as leavers would stay at home.
10 polls showed Remain winning by between 1% to 8%
3 showed leave winning by 1% or 2%
The majority of polls summarised on this well known political website on Wed 22nd June 2016 were showed Leave winning.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
The reality is that outside of campaigns these are little more than a snapshot. A snapshot now that looks little different to how it did in 2015.
"Sulphur" is only the British English spelling. In American English, it's "sulfur", and in Ireland it's "taoiseach".
It'd be a net 1 loss to the remain column, I expect there'd be more leave abstentions though - the turnout would be well down on the first vote.
Which brings us round to the point made by @Gabs2 and expanded on by @Richard_Nabavi.
We're stuck with this for a long time yet.
Refutations involving "Eve of poll" comparisons are obviously off since we're not near the end of a (God forbid) second referendum campaign.
Then, even if we eventually agree and implement an FTA (in 2025?) there will doubtless be lots of consequences from that which will upset lots of people. Too many concessions for some. Not enough access for others. There will be accusations that the EU aren't complying. We might be compelled to take enforcement action after a dispute was resolved against us.
That's all without the people who will drone on about how much of an awful error the whole concept was to begin with and advocate Remain.
Oh, and if immigration is still running at >100k a year then I'd expect a lot of people to have voted Leave to feel betrayed, even with free movement to the EU ended.
We'll give you this money if you give us a great deal is very different to we'll give you this money now pretty please can we have a deal as we're so desperate that we need it.
I do agree that polling outside an official campaign, whether GE or referendum is a poor predictor of outcome, something @HYUFD seems incapable of understanding.
It doesn't give an indication of which way the campaign would go though. It is very possible that it could be the same result, or it could be 60/40 for Remain.
If it was Mays deal vs Remain then turnout would be halved with Remain winning 80-20.
One big unknown in the election, when it comes, is whether Tory Remain holds up in its areas where they are vulnerable to the Lib Dems (or SNP or Labour) better than Labour Leave in areas where they are vulnerable to the Tories. You say they will balance out... well, maybe, but it's unproven assertion and is at the heart of the gamble.
The other big unknown is whether, post-extension, many Leave people blame Johnson for failure to deliver enough to vote Farage (having said "do or die"), or whether they forgive him and trust it'll be different post-election. Very hard to know that until it happens (assuming, as seems likely now, it does).
My only bet so far is a small one on Labour majority which is currently +EV.
Neither of us can say with certainty but I can confidently say that every leaver prediction of EU attitudes I can recall in the last 3 years has proved wrong, from BMW and Mercedes riding to the rescue onwards.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1181590070110904321?s=20
The country remains deeply divided and will be for decades.
Wait until "Tell Them Again" hits the airwaves/social media day in day out.
@BBCBreaking (40.8m followers): NONE
@BBCWorld (25.9m followers): NONE
@BBCNews (10.2m followers): NONE
The BBC has approximately 2000 'journalists'
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1181872209381466112
Will the EU be sensible, I doubt it, so we will pivot to the rest of the world and the EU will also lose our political support as well.
22 June 55% 45% N/A 10% 4,700 Populus Online
That we haven't seen such a shift, in either direction, is noteworthy.
It's not like those sorts of shifts can't happen - just look at the changes in the opinion polling on Trump impeachment.
The "Bored of Brexit vote" will shift to Remain.
The "Shaft the government vote" will also shift Remain.
I also think there will be big shifts in turnout in favour of Remain.
But until we have that further referendum, who knows? Let's have one and find out...
Conservative Party 1834 - 2019 RIP. Murdered by a cabal of fascists led by Boris Johnson
Your trade surplus point has been made (in various permutations). on numerous occasions, from BMW banging on Merkel’s door, onwards and has not come through for us yet. Not worked.
As for “pivot to the rest of the world”, we cannot physically shift ourselves. Geography means that, even at the height of the Empire, even during the Continental System, we relied to a great degree on trade with Europe. Not as much as, say, Germany, but they are not leaving the EU.
It’s the same old reheated tripe.
A BMG research poll for the Independent, conducted a couple of days earlier, had (unsurprisingly) rather different numbers.
If the government loses control of the process, it could well be May's deal plus a bit of Labour-friendly softening vs. Remain.
Can the Vote Leave team go bullishly into bat for that? Can the Brexit Party?
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1181088755865853952?s=19
Suppose the 50 of the 60-odd One Nation caucus are shoved out, and Labour become the largest party. We might see that Vote of No Confidence.
Effectively it will be a No Deal manifesto because the EU have said his proposal is a non-starter but it will be close enough to May's manifesto (no deal is better than a bad deal )for the likes of Green to be able stay in the tent.