Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be o

13567

Comments

  • I.e. we can't publish the detailed plan in case the ERG and DUP are forced to disown it.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181219700711317504

    What's the hurry? We have all of 18 working days, minus a few for prorogation, to put forward new proposals, negotiate the detail with the EU, get consent from the DUP, 27 other countries, the Commons, and the European parliament, and then pass the necessary legislation, and then to give adequate notice to businesses, especially in Ireland, as to what the new arrangements will be. Only a doomsayer could possibly think this is a bit of a tight schedule.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    James O’Brien really wanted to believe the people he disagreed with politically were guilty of being truly evil, and he let it cloud everything he said about the case

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/james-obrien-and-the-carl-beech-witch-hunt/
    Then he doubled down without checking the facts. All because he let his political differences and a desire for attention/praise prejudice his opinion

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/james-obrien-and-the-vip-child-sex-abuse-lies/
    Does any of that really matter in the scheme of things ?

    I don't defend him for a moment over this, but I am massively more concerned that the Met apparently flouted the law, and plain common sense, in order to pursue an investigation flawed from the start.
    That the IOPC has basically said no one need face any consequences is more disturbing still.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I.e. we can't publish the detailed plan in case the ERG and DUP are forced to disown it.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181219700711317504

    What's the hurry? We have all of 18 working days, minus a few for prorogation, to put forward new proposals, negotiate the detail with the EU, get consent from the DUP, 27 other countries, the Commons, and the European parliament, and then pass the necessary legislation, and then to give adequate notice to businesses, especially in Ireland, as to what the new arrangements will be. Only a doomsayer could possibly think this is a bit of a tight schedule.
    If a deal is agreed there surely has to be a technical extension?
  • Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    I think you are right.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Gloomy day.
  • RobD said:

    I.e. we can't publish the detailed plan in case the ERG and DUP are forced to disown it.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181219700711317504

    What's the hurry? We have all of 18 working days, minus a few for prorogation, to put forward new proposals, negotiate the detail with the EU, get consent from the DUP, 27 other countries, the Commons, and the European parliament, and then pass the necessary legislation, and then to give adequate notice to businesses, especially in Ireland, as to what the new arrangements will be. Only a doomsayer could possibly think this is a bit of a tight schedule.
    If a deal is agreed there surely has to be a technical extension?
    Well, our PM says we're leaving do-or-die on the 31st, so who am I to disagree?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    My thinking is that, assuming he is still leader of the Conservatives, the next election will reduce down to the question of: for Boris, or against him?

    This maps strongly onto the Brexit vote, but it's about more than Brexit.

    I think Grieve picks up lots of tactical votes on an anti-Boris ticket, but it won't be enough.

    Vote Grieve for dither and delay on Brexit!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    I think you are right.
    So do I and I've bet accordingly. GE in 2020.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Nope. Though I argue the reason that Corbyn won't VoNC is because he's both useless, and doesn't understand Parliamentary procedure, and the very real risk he might end up as PM and have to do something, rather than rant from the sidelines.

    Corbyn is the worst Leader of the Opposition since 1945. Seriously. The VERY VERY worst.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    philiph said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Meanwhile, in the "month of next election" market, December 2019 was last matched at 1.98. How low is it going to go?

    So if we get past Oct 31st, haven't left... do you think Corbyn will continue to resist a GE?

    Seems to me that once the extension is requested and presumably granted, that is the time to go to a general election.
    FWIW I think the opposition will not allow an election to be called until after 31 October. Even in the unlikely event of one being called on Friday 1 November, the FTPA requirement for a 25-working day campaign period means the very earliest possible Thursday for polling day is 12 December. If the extension period is only the three months required in the Benn Act then this might be a possibility but if the extension is longer then I think we're looking at the Spring.
    ....giving the incoming government the same mad dash to Do Something before a (say) March 31 deadline as we had this time after dicking about with a party leader election. Whatever the difficulties involved, I hope it's extension > election in fairly short order.

    If Boris gets a clear majority made up of MPs who *actually* support his plan, then I guess a hardish Brexit is pretty nailed-on with a pretty clear mandate (ie no arguing about whether most Leave voters are up for No Deal).

    If not, we'll probably get a referendum which will also need time.
    Except, the 25 days can be altered. We could still see a GE in November, and I have bet accordingly.
    How much can the 25 days be changed?
    I believe the old system was a minimum of 17 days. So that would save a week or so.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    I wonder if there will be any conditions added to the extention, referendum, election, incarceration of MPs?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Gloomy day.

    Yep. Seems nearly dark already.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Watching Pakistan play Sri Lanka on Sky 886, Sony Max. Nice to see international cricket back in Pakistan.

    Almost every ad break has one from the government telling the viewer to prepare for things changing on Oct 31 WHEN Britain leaves the EU

    Wow. So the government are obviously assuming they will fail to get a Deal. The 'million to one' no-hoper has become a nailed-on favourite....
    Is that really the case, or is it simply that the government signed contracts to spaff £100m over the advertising sector?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Noo writes: "Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house."

    With respect I think you are wrong. I agree that in principle any MP in the house can ask to call a VONC. But in practice the Speaker will only allow the leader of the opposition to call one. This is why Swinson in the early days urged Corbyn to request a VONC because she knew she wasn`t able to.

    I`d appreciate a definitive answer from someone on this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    edited October 2019

    I.e. we can't publish the detailed plan in case the ERG and DUP are forced to disown it.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181219700711317504

    What's the hurry? We have all of 18 working days, minus a few for prorogation, to put forward new proposals, negotiate the detail with the EU, get consent from the DUP, 27 other countries, the Commons, and the European parliament, and then pass the necessary legislation, and then to give adequate notice to businesses, especially in Ireland, as to what the new arrangements will be. Only a doomsayer could possibly think this is a bit of a tight schedule.
    Probably time for a couple of long weekend breaks in there, too.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stocky said:

    Noo writes: "Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house."

    With respect I think you are wrong. I agree that in principle any MP in the house can ask to call a VONC. But in practice the Speaker will only allow the leader of the opposition to call one. This is why Swinson in the early days urged Corbyn to request a VONC because she knew she wasn`t able to.

    I`d appreciate a definitive answer from someone on this.

    Only the LOTO can get it on the order paper next day, but the government could put it on the order paper if someone else proposed it and they were prepared to
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Gloomy day.

    Yep. Seems nearly dark already.
    Quite bright here in SE Scotland. Some actual blue sky in between the fluffy white bits.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    But a VONC triggered in that way, or even one triggered by Corbyn, might well fail. I doubt the expelled Tories would support it if the extension had been secured - presumably some of them hope to be readmitted to the party at some point and supporting a VONC would put an end to any hopes in that direction. And could all the independents be relied on to vote for their own political demise? None of them can expect to hold their seats at an early election.

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Stocky said:

    Noo writes: "Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house."

    With respect I think you are wrong. I agree that in principle any MP in the house can ask to call a VONC. But in practice the Speaker will only allow the leader of the opposition to call one. This is why Swinson in the early days urged Corbyn to request a VONC because she knew she wasn`t able to.

    I`d appreciate a definitive answer from someone on this.

    It's in the government's hands, I believe. By convention (yeah, I know, I know) a government can ignore a VONC call from anyone else, but if a LOTO calls for one, it's tabled at the earliest opportunity.
    Theresa May "reached out" saying that she would timetable a VONC if tabled by other party leaders, but she could have gone wider if she really wanted.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893
    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    But a VONC triggered in that way, or even one triggered by Corbyn, might well fail. I doubt the expelled Tories would support it if the extension had been secured - presumably some of them hope to be readmitted to the party at some point and supporting a VONC would put an end to any hopes in that direction. And could all the independents be relied on to vote for their own political demise? None of them can expect to hold their seats at an early election.

    If Boris is reaching out to make this happen, the Tories simply won't oppose it. It'll pass 300-20 or something like that, and then Someone Else goes to the palace. Quite who that will be is murky, but it's a way towards an election for Boris without him or his whole government resigning.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Stocky said:

    Noo writes: "Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house."

    With respect I think you are wrong. I agree that in principle any MP in the house can ask to call a VONC. But in practice the Speaker will only allow the leader of the opposition to call one. This is why Swinson in the early days urged Corbyn to request a VONC because she knew she wasn`t able to.

    I`d appreciate a definitive answer from someone on this.

    Only the LOTO can get it on the order paper next day, but the government could put it on the order paper if someone else proposed it and they were prepared to
    Yes, something like that. The non-LOTO proposing it is simply there as cover for the PM forcing this through. So it doesn't look like he's calling no confidence in himself.

    Also, it keeps alive the silly "they're frit" narrative which would obviously die quickly if Corbyn tabled one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    If a deal is agreed there surely has to be a technical extension?

    Yes. Ruling out an extension is ruling out a Deal.

    This, for me, is one of the biggest 'tells' that Johnson's Do or Die is about positioning for a pre-Brexit GE.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
  • I.e. we can't publish the detailed plan in case the ERG and DUP are forced to disown it.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1181219700711317504

    What's the hurry? We have all of 18 working days, minus a few for prorogation, to put forward new proposals, negotiate the detail with the EU, get consent from the DUP, 27 other countries, the Commons, and the European parliament, and then pass the necessary legislation, and then to give adequate notice to businesses, especially in Ireland, as to what the new arrangements will be. Only a doomsayer could possibly think this is a bit of a tight schedule.
    It's only when the schedule is tight that people are willing to get off their high horses and compromise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613


    On the subject of party loyalties, my family on my wife's side are staunch REMAINERS. Absolutely staunch. But they are also Labour (being in Bootle). My wife is more fence sitting and usually votes Labour but not always. She's determined to vote LD at any upcoming election to stop Brexit. She spoke to her own mum and dad about it, both of whom hate Brexit too, and tried to convince them they really had to think again about Labour.

    They told her that the name on the ballot paper could be 'Adolf Hitler - Labour Party Candidate'[1] and they would still vote Labour. Nothing, absolutely NOTHING will convince them to vote anything other than Labour.

    [1] With apologies to Godwin's law.... and Ken Livingstone.

    lol - the Ken Livingstone remark made me laugh!

    My family used to vote Tory but like me will probably vote LD (They will only vote LD, I might vote Labour to ensure the Tories don't beat my local Labour MP who is anti-Brexit).
    It's quite an eye-opener here in Bootle, to see the levels of tribal loyalty. Speaking to my wife's friend in 2015, I asked some general policy questions before the election. "Immigrants are all scum, stealing our jobs. Benefit cheats should be rounded up and shot. Bring back hanging for dirty criminals" etc etc.

    I casually asked, "So you'll be voting..... UKIP? Conservative?"

    She looked at me like I needed to be committed before she roared "LABOUR! I'm voting LABOUR!"

    It's both hilarious and tragic. It reminds me of the John Bird and John Fortune sketch just prior to 1997 election, about how the election is really decided by a handful of voters in a handful of seats. Excepting Southport, I would expect every seat in Merseyside to stay Labour, and safe Labour at the next GE.
    Southport is an odd one. For years it was a Con-LD marginal. with Labour nowhere. Then last time Labour got over 15,000 votes and came second, and within 3,000 of the Tories.
    Wonder whether there'll be even more tactical unwind now people realise Labour might be competitive.

    Are there any many other Victorian seaside towns held by Labour ? Brighton I suppose but that has a different demographic.


  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    But a VONC triggered in that way, or even one triggered by Corbyn, might well fail. I doubt the expelled Tories would support it if the extension had been secured - presumably some of them hope to be readmitted to the party at some point and supporting a VONC would put an end to any hopes in that direction. And could all the independents be relied on to vote for their own political demise? None of them can expect to hold their seats at an early election.

    If Boris is reaching out to make this happen, the Tories simply won't oppose it. It'll pass 300-20 or something like that, and then Someone Else goes to the palace. Quite who that will be is murky, but it's a way towards an election for Boris without him or his whole government resigning.
    Very risky tactic - if Someone Else goes to the palace he would be appointed PM and could then announce that he is bringing in legislation for ref2 and dare the Lib Dems to bring him down before it is passed. This would put Swinson in rather an awkward position.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Pulpstar said:
    Self parody. He has a sense of humor.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    But a VONC triggered in that way, or even one triggered by Corbyn, might well fail. I doubt the expelled Tories would support it if the extension had been secured - presumably some of them hope to be readmitted to the party at some point and supporting a VONC would put an end to any hopes in that direction. And could all the independents be relied on to vote for their own political demise? None of them can expect to hold their seats at an early election.

    If Boris is reaching out to make this happen, the Tories simply won't oppose it. It'll pass 300-20 or something like that, and then Someone Else goes to the palace. Quite who that will be is murky, but it's a way towards an election for Boris without him or his whole government resigning.
    Very risky tactic - if Someone Else goes to the palace he would be appointed PM and could then announce that he is bringing in legislation for ref2 and dare the Lib Dems to bring him down before it is passed. This would put Swinson in rather an awkward position.
    Yes, it's very risky. But we know Boris is a risk taker.
    Anyway, there are a number of possibilities of what might happen. This is but one of them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:
    I must say, it does complement his very stable genius.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Pulpstar said:


    "Great and unmatched wisdom"


    Enough in that tweet alone for the 25th amendment to be invoked.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Noo said: "If Boris is reaching out to make this happen, the Tories simply won't oppose it. It'll pass 300-20 or something like that, and then Someone Else goes to the palace. Quite who that will be is murky, but it's a way towards an election for Boris without him or his whole government resigning."

    You are assuming that Corbyn will back a VONC that he hasn`t himself triggered. Are you sure? I don`t think that he will.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:
    James O’Brien really wanted to believe the people he disagreed with politically were guilty of being truly evil, and he let it cloud everything he said about the case

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/james-obrien-and-the-carl-beech-witch-hunt/
    Then he doubled down without checking the facts. All because he let his political differences and a desire for attention/praise prejudice his opinion

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/james-obrien-and-the-vip-child-sex-abuse-lies/
    Does any of that really matter in the scheme of things ?

    I don't defend him for a moment over this, but I am massively more concerned that the Met apparently flouted the law, and plain common sense, in order to pursue an investigation flawed from the start.
    That the IOPC has basically said no one need face any consequences is more disturbing still.

    He is often referenced on here as being some kind of wise old head, bewildered by the madness/stupidity of people who disagree with him politically, particularly on our relationship with the EU. He has even written a book called "How to be Right". Yet he let his prejudice cloud his opinion in this case to the point that he repeatedly egged on a conspiracy theorist to give credence to a person who was purporting to be a "victim" of invented crimes.

    So in the current PB climate of seeing people who disagree with you as "bad" and worthy of being lied about to make one feel superior/prejudice everything they do or say, I'd say the case of O'Brien is a relevant warning.

    He hasn't really apologised though.

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Stocky said:

    Noo said: "If Boris is reaching out to make this happen, the Tories simply won't oppose it. It'll pass 300-20 or something like that, and then Someone Else goes to the palace. Quite who that will be is murky, but it's a way towards an election for Boris without him or his whole government resigning."

    You are assuming that Corbyn will back a VONC that he hasn`t himself triggered. Are you sure? I don`t think that he will.

    Well, he can vote against the VONC if he likes, but that might look pretty weird. And if Labour and the Conservatives both abstain, anything could happen.
  • There is shameful and there is what Donald Trump has done to the Syrian Kurds. It's hard to think of anything its equal in terms of betrayal in recent history.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    What does it mean when it says "I've done before!"?

    That he totally destroyed and obliterated the Economy of Turkey a year or two ago and nobody noticed?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Chris said:

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    What does it mean when it says "I've done before!"?

    That he totally destroyed and obliterated the Economy of Turkey a year or two ago and nobody noticed?
    Well, maybe he was responsible for the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
  • Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
  • Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    There is shameful and there is what Donald Trump has done to the Syrian Kurds. It's hard to think of anything its equal in terms of betrayal in recent history.

    He doesn't know what he's doing. Too distracted by hiding from tax fraud investigations, by impeachment, by hatred of people of colour, by neurosyphilis, and by his own preening, trembling ego.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited October 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Is that really the case, or is it simply that the government signed contracts to spaff £100m over the advertising sector?

    Everything is about GE positioning now, isn't it, on all sides, and in that context this could be money spaffed very wisely. The "Get Ready!" ads build up the anticipation - like the hyping of a blockbuster movie, "Brexit", cert PG, starring all your favourites, release date 31 Oct. Millions sorely disappointed when it's pulled and blaming - well that's the million dollar question.

    PS: Given it is arguably a PPB perhaps it should not be state funded. Ditto the Queen's Speech. Not sure she ought to be forced to sit there on a throne, fully robed up and crown affixed, reading out the Conservative manifesto for the upcoming election.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    But a VONC triggered in that way, or even one triggered by Corbyn, might well fail. I doubt the expelled Tories would support it if the extension had been secured - presumably some of them hope to be readmitted to the party at some point and supporting a VONC would put an end to any hopes in that direction. And could all the independents be relied on to vote for their own political demise? None of them can expect to hold their seats at an early election.

    If Boris is reaching out to make this happen, the Tories simply won't oppose it. It'll pass 300-20 or something like that, and then Someone Else goes to the palace. Quite who that will be is murky, but it's a way towards an election for Boris without him or his whole government resigning.
    Very risky tactic - if Someone Else goes to the palace he would be appointed PM and could then announce that he is bringing in legislation for ref2 and dare the Lib Dems to bring him down before it is passed. This would put Swinson in rather an awkward position.
    Yes, it's very risky. But we know Boris is a risk taker.
    Anyway, there are a number of possibilities of what might happen. This is but one of them.
    Agreed, there are many possible outcomes. But I think outcomes that involve Johnson voluntarily relinquishing the premiership he has spent his entire life coveting must be less likely than outcomes which keep him in place until he can get to an election.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893
    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    Oh indeed, in the SNP and Green manifestos ad the resulting vote at Holyrood (and also reflected in the European elections too of course). I was thinking more of the wider movement of sentiment in the electorate and how much any changes towards indyref would affect voting in a GE, especially with the previously Home Rule LDs being so rabidly agin Indyref with the same enthusiasm they have for using a similar electoral mandate not only to have Brexref 2 but to revoke tout court.

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019
    deleted
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is that really the case, or is it simply that the government signed contracts to spaff £100m over the advertising sector?

    Everything is about GE positioning now, isn't it, on all sides, and in that context this could be money spaffed very wisely. The "Get Ready!" ads build up the anticipation - like the hyping of a blockbuster movie, "Brexit", cert PG, starring all your favourites, release date 31 Oct. Millions sorely disappointed when it's pulled and blaming - well that's the million dollar question.

    PS: Given it is arguably a PPB perhaps it should not be state funded. Ditto the Queen's Speech. Not sure she ought to be forced to sit there on a throne, fully robed up and crown affixed, reading out the Conservative manifesto for the upcoming election.
    She may have a diplomatic sore throat and send Prince Andrew in her place.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is that really the case, or is it simply that the government signed contracts to spaff £100m over the advertising sector?

    Everything is about GE positioning now, isn't it, on all sides, and in that context this could be money spaffed very wisely. The "Get Ready!" ads build up the anticipation - like the hyping of a blockbuster movie, "Brexit", cert PG, starring all your favourites, release date 31 Oct. Millions sorely disappointed when it's pulled and blaming - well that's the million dollar question.

    PS: Given it is arguably a PPB perhaps it should not be state funded. Ditto the Queen's Speech. Not sure she ought to be forced to sit there on a throne, fully robed up and crown affixed, reading out the Conservative manifesto for the upcoming election.
    The most notable, not to say bizarre manifestation of this campaign has been the ads on the traffic information gantries on the A1 saying (words to the effect of) "Things may be changing on Nov 1st as we leave the EU, make sure you have the right paperwork."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
    Enough. Enough.

    25th Amendment needs to happen now. For the love of God can't American GOP senators see this?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is that really the case, or is it simply that the government signed contracts to spaff £100m over the advertising sector?

    Everything is about GE positioning now, isn't it, on all sides, and in that context this could be money spaffed very wisely. The "Get Ready!" ads build up the anticipation - like the hyping of a blockbuster movie, "Brexit", cert PG, starring all your favourites, release date 31 Oct. Millions sorely disappointed when it's pulled and blaming - well that's the million dollar question.

    PS: Given it is arguably a PPB perhaps it should not be state funded. Ditto the Queen's Speech. Not sure she ought to be forced to sit there on a throne, fully robed up and crown affixed, reading out the Conservative manifesto for the upcoming election.
    She may have a diplomatic sore throat and send Prince Andrew in her place.
    Seeing as he's the fifth adult in line currently for the throne that'd be amsuing.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is that really the case, or is it simply that the government signed contracts to spaff £100m over the advertising sector?

    Everything is about GE positioning now, isn't it, on all sides, and in that context this could be money spaffed very wisely. The "Get Ready!" ads build up the anticipation - like the hyping of a blockbuster movie, "Brexit", cert PG, starring all your favourites, release date 31 Oct. Millions sorely disappointed when it's pulled and blaming - well that's the million dollar question.

    PS: Given it is arguably a PPB perhaps it should not be state funded. Ditto the Queen's Speech. Not sure she ought to be forced to sit there on a throne, fully robed up and crown affixed, reading out the Conservative manifesto for the upcoming election.
    She may have a diplomatic sore throat and send Prince Andrew in her place.
    Andrew will be there like a shot. He's heard the Commons has a bar where you can get your hands on a 15 year old Isla.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
    And Westminster will refuse, certainly unless the SNP win a majority at the next Holyrood election or Corbyn becomes PM reliant on SNP support
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
    Enough. Enough.

    25th Amendment needs to happen now. For the love of God can't American GOP senators see this?
    The question is, if not this, then what would he need to say to convince them that he's off with the fairies?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893
    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
    And Westminster will refuse, certainly unless the SNP win a majority at the next Holyrood election or Corbyn becomes PM reliant on SNP support
    You're forgetting the Greens are also a pro-indyref party. A majority for indyref at Holyrood and a vote passed already.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
    And Westminster will refuse, certainly unless the SNP win a majority at the next Holyrood election or Corbyn becomes PM reliant on SNP support
    Could be tricky if the SNP put it in their Westminster manifesto and win a majority there. But yes, I also predict the Tories and Lib Dems will look for any way possible to justify denying it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    There is shameful and there is what Donald Trump has done to the Syrian Kurds. It's hard to think of anything its equal in terms of betrayal in recent history.

    Trump hasn't done anything, just completed the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and refused to intervene and risk US servicemens' lives in any Turkey Kurds dispute (unless as his latest tweet shows Turkey goes too far)
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437


    Field has no chance. ..

    My mum was in Liscard two years ago (Wallasey). .

    Field and Birkenhead occupy an altogether different universe from Eagle and Wallasey.

    From my conversations around Merseyside, Field could stand for the Monster Raving Loonies and win. As it is, he's standing under a banner which consistently wins once-Labour seats from Hartlepool to Bury.

    Never underestimate just how loathed Corbyn is in Britain's rustbelt. Class loyalty means Johnsonite and Farageist delusions they'll win there are certainly delusionary. But create a real leftist party properly rooted in the local community and they'll shaft Corbyn's posho Trotskyism as enthusiastically as voters in Golders Green will shaft his tolerance of anti-semitism.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
    Enough. Enough.

    25th Amendment needs to happen now. For the love of God can't American GOP senators see this?
    The question is, if not this, then what would he need to say to convince them that he's off with the fairies?
    Yep. I mean does he have to be actually walking around the White House dressed only in a sheet shouting 'I'm a teapot, I'm a teapot' before they act?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would be more open to allowing Holyrood have the referendum it's voted for, but that Holyrood term will likely expire before the end of the next government, so perhaps the SNP would want to wait for more damage to be inflicted on the Tories.

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
    And Westminster will refuse, certainly unless the SNP win a majority at the next Holyrood election or Corbyn becomes PM reliant on SNP support
    You're forgetting the Greens are also a pro-indyref party. A majority for indyref at Holyrood and a vote passed already.
    You're correct but so is HYUFD. The Tories will refuse. In my view, that refusal will be deeply immoral, but they will refuse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1181235796403195912

    Referendum. Great idea Dave, great idea...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Enough. Enough.

    25th Amendment needs to happen now. For the love of God can't American GOP senators see this?

    That would be great. But he is probably more bad than mad. Which is sad.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
    Does anyone know what he means by: he has already destroyed and obliterated Turkey's economy?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893
    Noo said:



    You're correct but so is HYUFD. The Tories will refuse. In my view, that refusal will be deeply immoral, but they will refuse.

    Oh, quite. I was objecting more to the made-up excuses - that it somehow has to be next election that qualifies when the last result somehow doesn't. Rather like Mr Leonard of SLAB.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
    And Westminster will refuse, certainly unless the SNP win a majority at the next Holyrood election or Corbyn becomes PM reliant on SNP support
    You're forgetting the Greens are also a pro-indyref party. A majority for indyref at Holyrood and a vote passed already.
    You're correct but so is HYUFD. The Tories will refuse. In my view, that refusal will be deeply immoral, but they will refuse.
    No more immoral than the SNP blocking Brexit despite 17 million voting for it
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    There is shameful and there is what Donald Trump has done to the Syrian Kurds. It's hard to think of anything its equal in terms of betrayal in recent history.

    Trump hasn't done anything, just completed the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and refused to intervene and risk US servicemens' lives in any Turkey Kurds dispute (unless as his latest tweet shows Turkey goes too far)
    Can you get back to your psephological "analysis," please?

    At least that's funny rather than offensive.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    eristdoof said:

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
    Does anyone know what he means by: he has already destroyed and obliterated Turkey's economy?
    How the hell are we supposed to know what he means by anything he says/tweets in his current state. I doubt an entire conference of psychiatrists could make sense of it.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080

    Downthread: there might be a lot of traffic both ways in a second referendum. There will be Bregretters who go Remain, but I suspect more Remainers who will want to “honour the result”. These will be the softest of Remainers the first time round, not the diehard.

    The question for Leave is whether that will outweigh what will likely be an expanded electorate next time, with hardcore Remainer activists more motivated and Leavers who’ll be very apathetic and angry.

    The behaviour of both sides will be critical. I could see either losing it for the other if they play their cards badly, which is normally how both sets of their respective supporters would like them to be played.

    Can you be "apathetic and angry" at the same time?
    Yes. Angry about something that has happened. Apathetic about voting as a way of addressing what one sees as the problem.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    The most notable, not to say bizarre manifestation of this campaign has been the ads on the traffic information gantries on the A1 saying (words to the effect of) "Things may be changing on Nov 1st as we leave the EU, make sure you have the right paperwork."

    Surprised at that because that is the sort of thing which can cause accidents. Traffic signs are not meant to be wordy. Even worse is where they take a while to read AND get you fretting about things that have nothing to do with your immediate motoring experience.

    EDIT: Blood on Gove's hands if it DOES cause pile-ups.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Pulpstar said:
    Unmatched: yes. Great: no.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    But then again, people have been detained as unwell for much less than the UK government's current antics.

    For obvious reasons, politicians (when in government) aren't subject to the same rules as the rest of us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
    And Westminster will refuse, certainly unless the SNP win a majority at the next Holyrood election or Corbyn becomes PM reliant on SNP support
    Could be tricky if the SNP put it in their Westminster manifesto and win a majority there. But yes, I also predict the Tories and Lib Dems will look for any way possible to justify denying it.
    It is only the Holyrood Government that can ask for indyref2 as the SNP will never lead the Westminster Government
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    The most notable, not to say bizarre manifestation of this campaign has been the ads on the traffic information gantries on the A1 saying (words to the effect of) "Things may be changing on Nov 1st as we leave the EU, make sure you have the right paperwork."

    Surprised at that because that is the sort of thing which can cause accidents.
    Only when the traffic is moving. So I'd have expected them to wait until 1 November.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    There is shameful and there is what Donald Trump has done to the Syrian Kurds. It's hard to think of anything its equal in terms of betrayal in recent history.

    Notable that even some of the regular Republican lickspittles aren't displaying unalloyed approval:
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/07/trump-turkey-syria-invasion-037052
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    eristdoof said:

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
    Does anyone know what he means by: he has already destroyed and obliterated Turkey's economy?
    Someone suggested he was claiming to have destroyed the Ottoman Empire.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Chris said:

    eristdoof said:

    Jut seen Trump's last couple of tweets. He sounds like he's off his rocker.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232249821388801

    ‘My great and unmatched wisdom’

    Before you know it he’ll be talking about his legendary modesty.
    Does anyone know what he means by: he has already destroyed and obliterated Turkey's economy?
    Someone suggested he was claiming to have destroyed the Ottoman Empire.
    Ah, I guess he's getting confused with that time when he eat a whole turkey while sitting on an ottoman.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    HYUFD said:
    And so must the Republican Senators.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:
    Sounds a little like a guarded olive branch to me... "keep it about Trump and you might get some cross party support". I might be reading too much into it though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    HYUFD said:
    A signal of potential bipartisan support for impeachment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Northstar said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Thinking ahead post 31 Oct, and assuming there is an extension, what then?

    Current thinking is that there will be a VONC - but given that we won`t have exited on 31 Oct what would be the point? A GNU will not be necessary as an extension is already in the bag, Therefore a VONC to obtain a GNU is unlikely.

    That leaves a VONC to secure a GE.

    However, only Corbyn can call a VONC and if I were he I would only trigger a VONC if I was abslutely certain that BXP will be fully active in the GE (i.e. no pact with Tories). As he can`t be certain of this, he will not call a VONC and will instead sit on his hands and let the government limp on into the forseeable future.

    Does anyone argue with my logic?

    Yes. A VONC doesn't only have to come from the leader of the opposition. It might serve Boris's interests to allow one from somewhere else in the house.
    Would the SNP initiate/back a VONC if an extension is secured? Seems like that would be in both parties’ interests at that point?
    I'm not sure. Current thinking is an election would be good for the number of SNP seats, but that's not the same as it being good for them overall. A Corbyn lead government would

    But it doesn't have to be the SNP. Boris could allow any old MP call one.
    Also - whether there has been a Brexit or not wil considerably affect both the demand for indyref2, and the actual vote therein.
    ScotGov has a mandate for one from Holyrood. This isn't about polling any more, it's about Holyrood being given what it's asked for. There will be one if Westminster allows it.
    ScotsGov doesn't have the power to give such a mandate.
    ScotGov has the mandate to seek one from Westminster. They don't have the power to unilaterally do it, but they certainly do have the power and mandate to ask.
    And Westminster will refuse, certainly unless the SNP win a majority at the next Holyrood election or Corbyn becomes PM reliant on SNP support
    Could be tricky if the SNP put it in their Westminster manifesto and win a majority there. But yes, I also predict the Tories and Lib Dems will look for any way possible to justify denying it.
    It is only the Holyrood Government that can ask for indyref2 as the SNP will never lead the Westminster Government
    I dare say you could get odds on that just at the moment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:
    Sounds a little like a guarded olive branch to me... "keep it about Trump and you might get some cross party support". I might be reading too much into it though.
    Exactly how I read it too. He had a similar message a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/1180199449102041089
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    "Disaster in the making': Republicans torch Trump's Syria policy"

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/07/trump-turkey-syria-invasion-037052

    Well, get rid of him then, before he destroys half the planet.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    There is shameful and there is what Donald Trump has done to the Syrian Kurds. It's hard to think of anything its equal in terms of betrayal in recent history.

    Oh I don't know...there are a couple of examples closer to home.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:
    Sounds a little like a guarded olive branch to me... "keep it about Trump and you might get some cross party support". I might be reading too much into it though.
    Exactly how I read it too. He had a similar message a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/1180199449102041089
    holy god, I've just gone down his twitter feed and yes, he's angry about Trump's behaviour:
    https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/1176182969964355589
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    dyingswan said:

    I am relieved at the decision of the Court of Session. The Benn Act does however raise a very difficult issue. If Parliament passes a law deliberately framed to play Gotcha with an individual - here the PM-there is bound to be resistance and consideration of breaking the law.This act is designed to constrain his negotiations with the EU.Then on 20th October to jeer at him in terms that he has applied to extend despite his earlier vow. That is cheap political point scoring through statute. Those who frame a law for that purpose are playing with fire. The pressure to break the law will ramp up and many will urge the PM to refuse to sign the letter. If in some future parliament for instance a Labour PM was directed by an ideological majority to sign a document abolishing the NHS would he comply? I doubt it. Many of those now lecturing the PM on his duty to sign the letter would take a different view when the boot was on the other foot. We are in dangerous territory here.

    At first I thought your example completely ridiculous, but here is how it might play out.

    1. Corbyn becomes PM with a Labour minority, dependent on support from regional parties.
    2. A split develops between Corbyn and some of his MPs who take fright at the rapidly expanding budget deficit.
    3. These rebel MPs - who might number 21, say - work with opposition parties to pass budget resolutions that bring a minimal degree of sanity to the government budget, because they are not prepared to put the leader of the Opposition, an extreme no-deal Leaver, into Number 10.
    4. Corbyn denounces these budget resolutions as "a death warrant for the NHS", a characterisation disputed by most people, and vows to increase the NHS budget in line with his original plan "come what may".
    5. Legal action is taken to ensure that Corbyn complies with the law.

    I have no problem with expecting the government to comply with the law in both cases.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    And if we do leave on 31st October (I know, I know) is he even a candidate or just yesterday's news?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    "Great and unmatched wisdom"


    Enough in that tweet alone for the 25th amendment to be invoked.
    There's a box of frogs ready to invoke it.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    eristdoof said:

    Ah, I guess he's getting confused with that time when he eat a whole turkey while sitting on an ottoman.

    To rip off the greatest sentence in the English language -

    Trump is an obese incontinent troll squatting over the face of humanity, perpetually shitting on anything that resembles virtue.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:
    Sounds a little like a guarded olive branch to me... "keep it about Trump and you might get some cross party support". I might be reading too much into it though.
    Exactly how I read it too. He had a similar message a few days ago.

    https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/1180199449102041089
    holy god, I've just gone down his twitter feed and yes, he's angry about Trump's behaviour:
    https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/1176182969964355589
    Is there some way he ends up as POTUS via a late run?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    The most notable, not to say bizarre manifestation of this campaign has been the ads on the traffic information gantries on the A1 saying (words to the effect of) "Things may be changing on Nov 1st as we leave the EU, make sure you have the right paperwork."

    Surprised at that because that is the sort of thing which can cause accidents. Traffic signs are not meant to be wordy. Even worse is where they take a while to read AND get you fretting about things that have nothing to do with your immediate motoring experience.

    EDIT: Blood on Gove's hands if it DOES cause pile-ups.
    Quick Google shows its national reach.

    https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/m5-signs-warn-brexit-impact-3302003
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    HYUFD said:
    A signal of potential bipartisan support for impeachment.
    Sounds to me like Kasich still wants to be President..
This discussion has been closed.