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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be o
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be one of the top constituency markets at the general election
The news at the weekend that the Liberal Democrats have decided to stand aside in the Beaconsfield constituency at the general election in order to give the incumbent MP, Dominic Grieve, a clear run has inevitably set off a betting market which looks likely to be a big one.
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https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/17668055.eu-elections-2019-vote-breakdown-wycombe-chiltern-and-south-bucks/
The judge has taken account of the undertakings given by the government . The judge thought the order was premature .
I suppose the judge is hoping the undertakings are in good faith and given Bozos behaviour one might question that .
However as he has given assurances if he doesn’t honour them then he will be in trouble with the courts .
It is entirely counter productive to the image of a major party to stand aside in circumstances such as this, just as promoting tactical voting is. It is a great big shouty message of "WE CAN'T WIN" which isn't a good look.
https://twitter.com/TrishLowt/status/1181176143506022400
Also they will no doubt pressure the Greens to do the same, disenfranchising Green supporters.
Ugh, just awful
A rather odd decision by the LD's.
This is key . If Bozo doesn’t honour what the government QC has provided in terms of written undertakings then he’s in serious trouble with the courts .
Democracy means you have to stand now? Utterly barking.
Grieve will be far too right wing for plenty of Lib Dem types.
A similar message to liberal-minded voters in the Labour Party, of course.
I am not sure how many voters would wish to be sold out to the American freebooters by Cummings and Johnson.
My money would tend to go on Grieve.
I mean.... what a bell end. Lucky he'd never show his face round here...
https://twitter.com/BrexitStewart/status/1181175144389189632?s=20
Lets say a voter rocks up, staunch LD supporter, and staunch believer in REMAIN. However, like many, doesn't really follow local politics and is unaware of what has happened.
Gets to the ballot paper and can't find LD on it. Only sees Con, Labour, Green and 'Independent'. How does he vote?
Another voter - staunch REMAINER, likes the LDs and hates the 'Tories'. Is aware of what's happened locally and rocks up. Looks at the ballot paper, and then thinks "This is for five years, NOT five weeks." and votes Labour, disgusted with himself and the LD for forcing the choice. He ain't voting Tory, or pseudo-Tory in his life.
(As an aside, this is surely a problem coming up. If, and its a huge IF, the LDs win because they are the party of Remain, I do wonder how many Tory Remainers, and Labour Remainers will be happy when Swinson says, "Right, thanks for your lent vote, that's Revoke sorted.... now about that PR we promised, and all the other manifesto commitments which you hate for the next five years)
I don't think Labour or the Greens can win here even if the election was held ten thousand times in the current circs.
I'd be up for a mini-PB meet. Or we can have a proper one and invite OGH and anyone else who would like to join in.
But we all know the narratives and counternarratives. Where's the data to poke holes in the stories?
https://capx.co/the-big-crisis-in-british-politics-is-not-brexit-but-a-collapse-in-trust/
The section below is an excerpt from the article.
The solution does not lie in resolving Brexit alone, even if Johnson were to find the perfect solution. Nor will it be solved by a managerial approach or by going back to 1997 with a reheat of Blairism. Appealing to ‘centrism’, the ‘free market’, or ‘socialism’ won’t cut it either. It needs a new solution, a new way of doing politics which isn’t really ‘doing politics’ at all, where politicians are not shielded by their advisors and follow the ‘playbook’, but are instead authentic, themselves, and answer the question even if it means admitting they do not know.
In my opinion it will also revolve around the weakening of 'The Party', acceptance of individual views and minimising the manifesto to the core National Interest issues (and therefore dumping a load of whipping). MPs should be allowed to act in the interest of Nation, Constituents and the personal manifesto they put forward, rather than party ideology and thus create trust and show authenticity.
On the other hand he'll raise uddles of cash and not be short of ground troops - though imported activists can irritate locals - and will have an actual campaign. It won't be a twitter thing only.
If we are to block a Tory majority this is exactly the kind of mature thing we need to pull off against the odds. I'd vote for him without hesitation. But I'm not normal.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/10/23/remainer-or-leaver-the-emergence-of-the-brexit-identity-prism/
Grieve's trump card might be that everyone claims to want independent-minded, principled MPs, and whatever one thinks of his views, he fits that model. Do most voters really prefer that to the party they usually vote for, though? Party allegiances are fading fast, but habits are hard to break. I know a local voter who always supports the Tories but hates Brexit, despises Boris and doesn't think much of the MP (Jeremy Hunt). I asked her if she was thinking of voting LibDem in view of that. It was a new thought for her - "I suppose I even might". I wasn't totally convinced that she actually will.
The Conservatives might have to give up their chance of winning Bootle.
I will cheer Dominic Grieve on all the way; but this is a heck of a hard path for him.
I think my mum is going to abstain next time round. She did in the Euros and the Conservatives don't seem to be an option for her at the moment.
NB having been a firm Leaver at the time of the referendum, she would now definitely vote Remain if there is a fresh referendum.
I am going to have stop collecting more because apart from the time spent watering etc- which is remarkably soothing and calming - I will soon end up living in a mini-Kew Gardens hothouse.
I also erected a new potting bench outside which was done without the usual "sweary fun" in the words of my youngest. I may regret this. In fact I probably will. But happy to help organise - if someone else wants to help - but bear in mind that being a girly swot I know even less about London pubs than Rory Stewart.
Maybe we should get him along and we can quiz him. It could be a select PB focus group!
It was a fairly silly argument, but if they were of another party, then even sillier.
Nor is any voter obliged to follow their advice. In the last election I was going to vote Green but they stood down as part of a ' progressive alliance ' and endorsed the Labour candidate. So I voted Lib Dem instead.
This maps strongly onto the Brexit vote, but it's about more than Brexit.
I think Grieve picks up lots of tactical votes on an anti-Boris ticket, but it won't be enough.
Then he can be an outraged constitutional commentator when the new government passes acts to prevent backbenchers seizing control of the order paper in future and the commons is put in a strait jacket
Plus any PB'ers turning up will find themselves conscripted into general fetching/carrying and other labouring duties. Which will be lovely for me. But perhaps not for anyone else.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1181189696812191744
I think he's a bit off on the defences vs the Lib Dems (B&R would have been a plausible target regardless of the by-election) but generally in the right direction.
A straight choice.
The Grievesters could become the National Centre-Right. The equivalent party on the centre-left, in the absence of using the "Labour" brand, could become the National Socia...
Oh, wait.
So the whole hoover up Labour leave seats thing looks to be, when you factor in North of the border, a wash (no pun intended).
They told her that the name on the ballot paper could be 'Adolf Hitler - Labour Party Candidate'[1] and they would still vote Labour. Nothing, absolutely NOTHING will convince them to vote anything other than Labour.
[1] With apologies to Godwin's law.... and Ken Livingstone.
The bonus is, on the off chance that they are merely just lazy shysters talking rubbish, everyone else gets to see that their confident assertions are actually hollow.