What remains of Labours vote are less concerned. Enough of the 20 odd percent intending to vote Labour are concerned enough for it to be a concern. They cant afford to lose any more support, and need to gain it from 'somewhere'
You could argue that Labour have already lost lots of voters due to Brexit, so of course the rump that they have left will be those less bothered by it (either way). Then the results indicate how difficult it will be for Corbyn to win these lost voters back by moving the debate onto non-Brexit policy.
It's worth remembering that the next election is primarily a contest between the Labour and the Conservatives as to who can lose the fewest voters from 2017. Johnson doesn't need to win over any existing Labour voters.
Considering Labour's ambiguous position it makes sense that the 20% rump of voters that are currently backing Labour are less concerned about Brexit than other voters.
This reads to me as bad news from Labour. Given that Labour appears to be the odd one out and the Tories and Lib Dems and Leave Voters [where is the Remain figure?] are rather consistent it appears that people who have abandoned Labour and gone to the Lib Dems/Tories care about Brexit. Makes it unlikely that ambiguous Labour will regain those voters.
Trouble with this is that many traditional Labour voters might dislike other non-Brexit things that the party are putting forward. And some of them might be under the impression that Boris Johnson gives a flying fuck about their interests. Or they might consider him to be 'a bit of a card' and a refreshing contrast to the earnest 70 year old beardie from Islington. Voters are like this. They get some odd ideas and it can be difficult to disabuse them without the use of chemicals.
Whilst Mike makes a good point, the converse is that the Conservative support is (for now at least) more solid and less divided than that of the opposition parties, simply because of the concentration and enthusiasm of the pro-Brexit vote.
Whether this will persist beyond the 31st October depends a lot on what happens in the next few weeks. If we crash out with No Deal, support for the Tories will dissipate rapidly as the naive optimism about crash-out bumps into reality. If there is an extension, then everything will depend on how well Boris manages to finesse away his breaking of the 'do-or-die' pledge and blame it on the big boys being nasty to him, but I am sure there will be some hit to his support.
Of course, if he somehow manages to make Houdini look like a bumbling amateur at escapology by leaving with a deal on October 31st, then he will win a massive majority and deservedly so. The main problem with pinning your hopes on this is that the opposition parties aren't completely stupid. The second problem is that there isn't enough time.
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Traditional LAB/CON switchers won't be the primary Tory targets in the next election. Firstly, because the Labour vote is close to its extremely sticky floor of around 20%, and most of those voters are never going to switch to the Conservatives. Secondly, because the bulk of voters who have left the Conservatives since 2017 have gone to the Lib Dems or Brexit Party, it makes far more sense to target those voters who have at least demonstrated that they're willing to vote Conservative in a pinch.
My expectation is that the Tories will continue to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by arguing that only Boris Johnson can deliver Brexit, and squeeze Tory-LD switchers by arguing that Johnson is better than Corbyn. And, of course, coming up with some generous post-Brexit spending pledges to squeeze both.
Furthermore, you might almost think that having Parliament force an extension which Johnson can credibly argue to Leave voters he didn't want and did everything he could to prevent, giving him an extra couple months to hold an election without worrying about a no deal Brexit in the middle of the campaign while reinforcing the People VS Parliament narrative he needs to win back Conservatives who have gone over to the Brexit Party, plays right into his hands.
I think the path for Johnson is very narrow, but I wouldn't write his chances off.
The latest rumours about Orban vetoing an extension seem ridiculous. Orban has no real dog in this fight, what would he get by vetoing an extension - considering others like Macron will already be arguing on the side of not extending or only for a little while, it's not like he gets to have some image asthe lone voice standing up to the EU, rather he would be shoulder to shoulder with Macron. Why waste any political capital on this. He's not arguing for Brexit or Hungarexit himself either. Seems about as likely as when that tory MP kept saying he was getting his friends in high places in the Polish government to veto it.
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
I thought the story about HMQ apparently asking an advisor, for the first time in her reign, in what circumstances she could dismiss a PM was interesting. Presumably it has been leaked deliberately by her advisors as a shot across Johnson's bows, I would guess to avoid him refusing to go after a VONC.
It's worth remembering that the next election is primarily a contest between the Labour and the Conservatives as to who can lose the fewest voters from 2017. Johnson doesn't need to win over any existing Labour voters.
Although he is winning over significantly more from Labour than Labour is winning over from him.
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Whilst Mike makes a good point, the converse is that the Conservative support is (for now at least) more solid and less divided than that of the opposition parties, simply because of the concentration and enthusiasm of the pro-Brexit vote.
Whether this will persist beyond the 31st October depends a lot on what happens in the next few weeks. If we crash out with No Deal, support for the Tories will dissipate rapidly as the naive optimism about crash-out bumps into reality. If there is an extension, then everything will depend on how well Boris manages to finesse away his breaking of the 'do-or-die' pledge and blame it on the big boys being nasty to him, but I am sure there will be some hit to his support.
Of course, if he somehow manages to make Houdini look like a bumbling amateur at escapology by leaving with a deal on October 31st, then he will win a massive majority and deservedly so. The main problem with pinning your hopes on this is that the opposition parties aren't completely stupid. The second problem is that there isn't enough time.
The assumption that Leave voters will be angry with Boris rather than the opposition MPs/expelled rebels/Europe/judges etc is a Sir Humphrey style "brave" assumption IMO.
May made it clear she wanted an extension. On a free vote that she called prior to the request going in she was one of a minority of Tory MPs to vote in favour of seeking an election. Boris couldn't have been clearer he doesn't want one. If one happens it will be due to the actions of Grieve etc and show that Boris needs a majority in Parliament.
Whilst Mike makes a good point, the converse is that the Conservative support is (for now at least) more solid and less divided than that of the opposition parties, simply because of the concentration and enthusiasm of the pro-Brexit vote.
Whether this will persist beyond the 31st October depends a lot on what happens in the next few weeks. If we crash out with No Deal, support for the Tories will dissipate rapidly as the naive optimism about crash-out bumps into reality. If there is an extension, then everything will depend on how well Boris manages to finesse away his breaking of the 'do-or-die' pledge and blame it on the big boys being nasty to him, but I am sure there will be some hit to his support.
Of course, if he somehow manages to make Houdini look like a bumbling amateur at escapology by leaving with a deal on October 31st, then he will win a massive majority and deservedly so. The main problem with pinning your hopes on this is that the opposition parties aren't completely stupid. The second problem is that there isn't enough time.
The assumption that Leave voters will be angry with Boris rather than the opposition MPs/expelled rebels/Europe/judges etc is a Sir Humphrey style "brave" assumption IMO.
May made it clear she wanted an extension. On a free vote that she called prior to the request going in she was one of a minority of Tory MPs to vote in favour of seeking an election. Boris couldn't have been clearer he doesn't want one. If one happens it will be due to the actions of Grieve etc and show that Boris needs a majority in Parliament.
His chosen dates for the prorogation suggest he was planning for an extension, just one he could rail against. It has worked as planned.
Traditional LAB/CON switchers won't be the primary Tory targets in the next election. Firstly, because the Labour vote is close to its extremely sticky floor of around 20%, and most of those voters are never going to switch to the Conservatives. Secondly, because the bulk of voters who have left the Conservatives since 2017 have gone to the Lib Dems or Brexit Party, it makes far more sense to target those voters who have at least demonstrated that they're willing to vote Conservative in a pinch.
My expectation is that the Tories will continue to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by arguing that only Boris Johnson can deliver Brexit, and squeeze Tory-LD switchers by arguing that Johnson is better than Corbyn. And, of course, coming up with some generous post-Brexit spending pledges to squeeze both.
Furthermore, you might almost think that having Parliament force an extension which Johnson can credibly argue to Leave voters he didn't want and did everything he could to prevent, giving him an extra couple months to hold an election without worrying about a no deal Brexit in the middle of the campaign while reinforcing the People VS Parliament narrative he needs to win back Conservatives who have gone over to the Brexit Party, plays right into his hands.
I think the path for Johnson is very narrow, but I wouldn't write his chances off.
Good post. I am in the latter group of disaffected Cons supporters you describe. Plus it has been my contention that post-October 31 would be fatal for Boris. Perhaps I am overestimating the resolution of some Brexiters while underestimating Nigel's efficacy. The latter though a dangerous path.
Obvious point, but worth noting, that Boris is spending a lot of time being seen in hospitals and announcing new NHS spending. Cutting the ground from under Labour so they can't run a "30 days to save the NHS" campaign.
I think this lack of an effective campaign will depress turnout further among Labour voters who don't much like Corbyn and don't share the metropolitan horror of Boris that was expressed at the Labour conference.
David Lammy is a good reason why politicians need to stop using twitter and the BBC need to stop pandering to it. Facebook though far from perfect is a better place for politicians to provide a message for voters.
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Easington? Is Dom serious? This all sounds a bit far fetched to me.
Easington is 197 on the Labour defence list, it's the 60th safest seat they have. NS are reading the list upside down
LOL!!
Don't think anyone's suggested Labour will go down to fewer than 60 seats remaining. What's next, in order to gain any seats the Tories need to be winning places like Liverpool Walton?
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Easington? Is Dom serious? This all sounds a bit far fetched to me.
Easington is 197 on the Labour defence list, it's the 60th safest seat they have. NS are reading the list upside down
LOL!!
Don't think anyone's suggested Labour will go down to fewer than 60 seats remaining. What's next, in order to gain any seats the Tories need to be winning places like Liverpool Walton?
Corbyn is doing his damndest to achieve such a result.
If women and girls reported every sexual assault, however minor, to the police, they’d be doing little else from about the age of 12 onwards. And doubtless they’d be criticised for diverting the police from “more important” crimes and/or accused of being hysterical about trivial matters. It is beyond tiresome that women have to - as a matter of routine in pretty much all walks of life - put up with chimpanzee-like behaviour from men of all types. It’d be quite nice if they’d grow up and learn some more civilized mating techniques.
Depressingly, I doubt all these stories will affect peoples’ views of Boris one bit: that he’s a priapic liar is priced in. His opponents are making the same mistake as those thinking that all those IRA stories would harm Corbyn during the last GE. Something more than “Boris is a lech” is needed.
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Easington? Is Dom serious? This all sounds a bit far fetched to me.
Easington is 197 on the Labour defence list, it's the 60th safest seat they have. NS are reading the list upside down
LOL!!
Don't think anyone's suggested Labour will go down to fewer than 60 seats remaining. What's next, in order to gain any seats the Tories need to be winning places like Liverpool Walton?
If they win easington they are removing Chi Onuwrah in Newcastle Central and storming through with the Jarrow marchers whilst turning Lewisham and Sheffield Brightside into ultra marginals
Whilst Mike makes a good point, the converse is that the Conservative support is (for now at least) more solid and less divided than that of the opposition parties, simply because of the concentration and enthusiasm of the pro-Brexit vote.
Whether this will persist beyond the 31st October depends a lot on what happens in the next few weeks. If we crash out with No Deal, support for the Tories will dissipate rapidly as the naive optimism about crash-out bumps into reality. If there is an extension, then everything will depend on how well Boris manages to finesse away his breaking of the 'do-or-die' pledge and blame it on the big boys being nasty to him, but I am sure there will be some hit to his support.
Of course, if he somehow manages to make Houdini look like a bumbling amateur at escapology by leaving with a deal on October 31st, then he will win a massive majority and deservedly so. The main problem with pinning your hopes on this is that the opposition parties aren't completely stupid. The second problem is that there isn't enough time.
The assumption that Leave voters will be angry with Boris rather than the opposition MPs/expelled rebels/Europe/judges etc is a Sir Humphrey style "brave" assumption IMO.
May made it clear she wanted an extension. On a free vote that she called prior to the request going in she was one of a minority of Tory MPs to vote in favour of seeking an election. Boris couldn't have been clearer he doesn't want one. If one happens it will be due to the actions of Grieve etc and show that Boris needs a majority in Parliament.
His chosen dates for the prorogation suggest he was planning for an extension, just one he could rail against. It has worked as planned.
I think the chosen dates for the prorogation were three-fold:
1: To wind up the opposition and force them to act sooner than later [they were always going to act] 2: To then get an election 3: To stay within what would be legally possible [a total prorogation to November would have been laughed out of court]
The latest rumours about Orban vetoing an extension seem ridiculous. Orban has no real dog in this fight, what would he get by vetoing an extension - considering others like Macron will already be arguing on the side of not extending or only for a little while, it's not like he gets to have some image asthe lone voice standing up to the EU, rather he would be shoulder to shoulder with Macron. Why waste any political capital on this. He's not arguing for Brexit or Hungarexit himself either. Seems about as likely as when that tory MP kept saying he was getting his friends in high places in the Polish government to veto it.
Orban wants to remind Brussels that he can be a complete pain in the arse if they don't listen to him. It will play well at home.
And it is somewhere for all those hedge fund billions to invest.
Furthermore, you might almost think that having Parliament force an extension which Johnson can credibly argue to Leave voters he didn't want and did everything he could to prevent, giving him an extra couple months to hold an election without worrying about a no deal Brexit in the middle of the campaign while reinforcing the People VS Parliament narrative he needs to win back Conservatives who have gone over to the Brexit Party, plays right into his hands.
"I did the extension but I didn't want to," is a nuanced message that will be wasted on the type of person who likes Brexit. All they will see is that he neither did nor died on the Feast of Saint Allen.
This is the best policy any government in Britain has come up with in the entire history of ever. It solves the country's biggest social and economic problem without costing anyone any money.
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Easington? Is Dom serious? This all sounds a bit far fetched to me.
Easington is 197 on the Labour defence list, it's the 60th safest seat they have. NS are reading the list upside down
LOL!!
Don't think anyone's suggested Labour will go down to fewer than 60 seats remaining. What's next, in order to gain any seats the Tories need to be winning places like Liverpool Walton?
Someone should tell the NS that Labour's internal polling (apparently) shows them at risk of losing 100 seats.....
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Obvious point, but worth noting, that Boris is spending a lot of time being seen in hospitals and announcing new NHS spending. Cutting the ground from under Labour so they can't run a "30 days to save the NHS" campaign.
I think this lack of an effective campaign will depress turnout further among Labour voters who don't much like Corbyn and don't share the metropolitan horror of Boris that was expressed at the Labour conference.
Labour will go hard on any future US trade deal and tie Bozo to Trump and say a vote for the Tories will see the NHS sold off .
A simple message , Bozo lied to the Queen , lied to the public and lied to MPs why on earth would you trust what he says on the NHS.
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
This is the best policy any government in Britain has come up with in the entire history of ever. It solves the country's biggest social and economic problem without costing anyone any money.
I suppose the voters will hate it.
'Tories in favour of extensions' has a certain ring to it.
If women and girls reported every sexual assault, however minor, to the police, they’d be doing little else from about the age of 12 onwards. And doubtless they’d be criticised for diverting the police from “more important” crimes and/or accused of being hysterical about trivial matters. It is beyond tiresome that women have to - as a matter of routine in pretty much all walks of life - put up with chimpanzee-like behaviour from men of all types. It’d be quite nice if they’d grow up and learn some more civilized mating techniques
If women and girls reported every sexual assault, however minor, to the police, they’d be doing little else from about the age of 12 onwards. And doubtless they’d be criticised for diverting the police from “more important” crimes and/or accused of being hysterical about trivial matters. It is beyond tiresome that women have to - as a matter of routine in pretty much all walks of life - put up with chimpanzee-like behaviour from men of all types. It’d be quite nice if they’d grow up and learn some more civilized mating techniques.
Depressingly, I doubt all these stories will affect peoples’ views of Boris one bit: that he’s a priapic liar is priced in. His opponents are making the same mistake as those thinking that all those IRA stories would harm Corbyn during the last GE. Something more than “Boris is a lech” is needed.
Sadly, most men have no clue of the wearying constancy of unwanted attention and how women often have to sometimes plan their lives around avoiding it. I think fathers of 13-year-old girls sometimes get a glimpse of it and it scares them. They see the looks their child starts to get and they start to how dangerous men can suddenly appear.
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
You make a typically elegant and perceptive point, malcolm, nonetheless you are not at liberty to dispute the facts. The chart shows that western Scotland gets the same amount of sun as Yakutia, Siberia. Literally.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
And now I've got the old rugby song in my head that starts: "Monday I touched her on her ankle..."
On Wednesday, I confess, I lifted up her dress?
As with John Inman's Week Of Love, going any further is dicey. Of course, in the modern world, Craig David had already gone well beyond PG by that point of the week.
Obvious point, but worth noting, that Boris is spending a lot of time being seen in hospitals and announcing new NHS spending. Cutting the ground from under Labour so they can't run a "30 days to save the NHS" campaign.
I think this lack of an effective campaign will depress turnout further among Labour voters who don't much like Corbyn and don't share the metropolitan horror of Boris that was expressed at the Labour conference.
Labour will go hard on any future US trade deal and tie Bozo to Trump and say a vote for the Tories will see the NHS sold off .
A simple message , Bozo lied to the Queen , lied to the public and lied to MPs why on earth would you trust what he says on the NHS.
I suspect there will be a lot of photos of things like this
but equally you have from today alone:-
No need for borders - against the picture of the Midland Hotel No need for extensions - as every householder is allowed an extension as long as they want.
If women and girls reported every sexual assault, however minor, to the police, they’d be doing little else from about the age of 12 onwards. And doubtless they’d be criticised for diverting the police from “more important” crimes and/or accused of being hysterical about trivial matters. It is beyond tiresome that women have to - as a matter of routine in pretty much all walks of life - put up with chimpanzee-like behaviour from men of all types. It’d be quite nice if they’d grow up and learn some more civilized mating techniques.
Depressingly, I doubt all these stories will affect peoples’ views of Boris one bit: that he’s a priapic liar is priced in. His opponents are making the same mistake as those thinking that all those IRA stories would harm Corbyn during the last GE. Something more than “Boris is a lech” is needed.
While I agree with that, it is troubling that we have an asymmetric situation
Charlotte Easton (?) could have made these allegations public - or complained to the police - at any point in the last 20 years.
She could have done so during the #metoo campaign a couple of years ago
And yet she chooses to make a word-against-word allegation at a time it will draw the most attention and thereby benefit her career the most while potentially damaging the accused the most
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
You make a typically elegant and perceptive point, malcolm, nonetheless you are not at liberty to dispute the facts. The chart shows that western Scotland gets the same amount of sun as Yakutia, Siberia. Literally.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
LOL, I am never irritable except when confronted by stupidity ( common on here ). We certainly do not get enough sun, but when we do it is exceedingly pleasant , none of your mugginess and crap and no madding crowds to spoil your happiness. I have lived down south and the little extra sun did not make up for the horrible amount of traffic and people. It made it almost impossible to enjoy holidays except in your own garden. PS: Yakutia must be a green and pleasant place PPS: Sun is shining as I post, trees are turning and a fine autumn beckons
This was in this week's NS article about Dom and his vision:
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
Easington? Is Dom serious? This all sounds a bit far fetched to me.
Easington is 197 on the Labour defence list, it's the 60th safest seat they have. NS are reading the list upside down
Oops. Apparently Dom's family come from Easingston, so presumably the author got over-excited when he thought he'd spotted a thrilling juxtaposition.
Yeah I mean my little call on Sunderland Central yesterday was pushing the envelope and is about as far as they could get imo on a meltdown night for Labour, and even that is 90 seats before the burghers of easington go blue. Easington is more likely to see a solid enough hold with a Farage surge into the 20%s
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
You make a typically elegant and perceptive point, malcolm, nonetheless you are not at liberty to dispute the facts. The chart shows that western Scotland gets the same amount of sun as Yakutia, Siberia. Literally.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
LOL, I am never irritable except when confronted by stupidity ( common on here ). We certainly do not get enough sun, but when we do it is exceedingly pleasant , none of your mugginess and crap and no madding crowds to spoil your happiness. I have lived down south and the little extra sun did not make up for the horrible amount of traffic and people. It made it almost impossible to enjoy holidays except in your own garden. PS: Yakutia must be a green and pleasant place PPS: Sun is shining as I post, trees are turning and a fine autumn beckons
I'd rather Fort William in a hoolie than Oxford in a heatwave
If women and girls reported every sexual assault, however minor, to the police, they’d be doing little else from about the age of 12 onwards. And doubtless they’d be criticised for diverting the police from “more important” crimes and/or accused of being hysterical about trivial matters. It is beyond tiresome that women have to - as a matter of routine in pretty much all walks of life - put up with chimpanzee-like behaviour from men of all types. It’d be quite nice if they’d grow up and learn some more civilized mating techniques.
Depressingly, I doubt all these stories will affect peoples’ views of Boris one bit: that he’s a priapic liar is priced in. His opponents are making the same mistake as those thinking that all those IRA stories would harm Corbyn during the last GE. Something more than “Boris is a lech” is needed.
While I agree with that, it is troubling that we have an asymmetric situation
Charlotte Easton (?) could have made these allegations public - or complained to the police - at any point in the last 20 years.
She could have done so during the #metoo campaign a couple of years ago
And yet she chooses to make a word-against-word allegation at a time it will draw the most attention and thereby benefit her career the most while potentially damaging the accused the most
That doesn’t seem equitable to me.
She can want to have done those things in your penultimate paragraph without detracting from the significance of the event.
A (bad) analogy would be if people were talking about, say, the amount of sunlight in one or other european capitals and you said that every time you had been to Paris it had been raining. You wouldn't have said that during any other conversation but it was relevant and of interest to people at that moment.
And yet she chooses to make a word-against-word allegation at a time it will draw the most attention and thereby benefit her career the most while potentially damaging the accused the most.
The worst time for Boris probably would have been during his leadership campaign. His grip on the Tory party is now rock solid. They aren't going to abandon him over this.
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
You make a typically elegant and perceptive point, malcolm, nonetheless you are not at liberty to dispute the facts. The chart shows that western Scotland gets the same amount of sun as Yakutia, Siberia. Literally.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
LOL, I am never irritable except when confronted by stupidity ( common on here ). We certainly do not get enough sun, but when we do it is exceedingly pleasant , none of your mugginess and crap and no madding crowds to spoil your happiness. I have lived down south and the little extra sun did not make up for the horrible amount of traffic and people. It made it almost impossible to enjoy holidays except in your own garden. PS: Yakutia must be a green and pleasant place PPS: Sun is shining as I post, trees are turning and a fine autumn beckons
I'd rather Fort William in a hoolie than Oxford in a heatwave
Required to prevent comedians lobbing battery acid around.....
Andrew Neil succinctly pointed out this has been the norm since the 1984 attempt to blow up the government, and the poster must surely know this, and if not, why not?
Historians will marvel at how out of their way the Boris Tories went to lose an election.
It's TMay to Yakety Sax again: Spend the time in government doing pissy small-bore populist things to for a day or two of headlines, then right before the election, announce really good, important policies to solve serious long-term problems, in ways that are easy for their opponents to demagogue.
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
You make a typically elegant and perceptive point, malcolm, nonetheless you are not at liberty to dispute the facts. The chart shows that western Scotland gets the same amount of sun as Yakutia, Siberia. Literally.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
LOL, I am never irritable except when confronted by stupidity ( common on here ). We certainly do not get enough sun, but when we do it is exceedingly pleasant , none of your mugginess and crap and no madding crowds to spoil your happiness. I have lived down south and the little extra sun did not make up for the horrible amount of traffic and people. It made it almost impossible to enjoy holidays except in your own garden. PS: Yakutia must be a green and pleasant place PPS: Sun is shining as I post, trees are turning and a fine autumn beckons
I'd rather Fort William in a hoolie than Oxford in a heatwave
The climate of South Devon beats everywhere else.
Planet-wide.
North Norfolk in the winter as an arctic low steams down the North Sea
Historians will marvel at how out of their way the Boris Tories went to lose an election.
Doesn't it piss off the same homeowners scared by Theresa May's dementia tax, that they now can't do anything about their neighbours extending upwards and blocking out the sunlight from their garden (or solar panels, or windows).
Andrew Neil succinctly pointed out this has been the norm since the 1984 attempt to blow up the government, and the poster must surely know this, and if not, why not?
That whistling noise is the point of the Tweet flying over your head...
While I agree with that, it is troubling that we have an asymmetric situation
Charlotte Easton (?) could have made these allegations public - or complained to the police - at any point in the last 20 years.
She could have done so during the #metoo campaign a couple of years ago
And yet she chooses to make a word-against-word allegation at a time it will draw the most attention and thereby benefit her career the most while potentially damaging the accused the most
That doesn’t seem equitable to me.
What is not equitable is that women have to fight to be heard. Many a woman over the years has had allegations dismissed so that a powerful man's reputation is not besmirched.
#meToo came into existence because women are often highly disadvantaged in these situations. Whilst some men have been assaulted by women, the vast majority of assaults is the other way round.
That doesn’t seem equitable to me - but I do not want men to achieve equality of assault. I would just like to get through the day without having my a*se grabbed.
Historians will marvel at how out of their way the Boris Tories went to lose an election.
Doesn't it piss off the same homeowners scared by Theresa May's dementia tax, that they now can't do anything about their neighbours extending upwards and blocking out the sunlight from their garden (or solar panels, or windows).
Yep. It is a master class. I suggest for a follow up they add 10% tax to petrol and scrap the greenbelt.
Andrew Neil succinctly pointed out this has been the norm since the 1984 attempt to blow up the government, and the poster must surely know this, and if not, why not?
That whistling noise is the point of the Tweet flying over your head...
Not really, he thinks its an amusing comment on the NI border, whereas the fact the government needs extraordinary measures to prevent attempts to blow them up is not really a joking matter
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
You make a typically elegant and perceptive point, malcolm, nonetheless you are not at liberty to dispute the facts. The chart shows that western Scotland gets the same amount of sun as Yakutia, Siberia. Literally.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
LOL, I am never irritable except when confronted by stupidity ( common on here ). We certainly do not get enough sun, but when we do it is exceedingly pleasant , none of your mugginess and crap and no madding crowds to spoil your happiness. I have lived down south and the little extra sun did not make up for the horrible amount of traffic and people. It made it almost impossible to enjoy holidays except in your own garden. PS: Yakutia must be a green and pleasant place PPS: Sun is shining as I post, trees are turning and a fine autumn beckons
The inner Hebrides, on a fine summer's day, are quite possibly the most beautiful place on God's green earth. Also the food is markedly improved, as it is elsewhere in our fair British islands.
It's just that, for me, there isn't enough of these sunny days; even in relatively sunnier London I get immiserated by the grey.
As ever the ideal would be a mix. A London flat plus a nice little home in the Greek islands would suit me. Plus maybe a botlhole in Thailand. And a ranch in Arizona. I don't ask for much.
Actually, it accords with studies in the US. The people earning less than USD 20k per year voted for Clinton. It was the band just above that who voted in Trump. The Trump voters and the Brexiteers are classically those who are self-employed, always complaining about taxes, yet themselves hardly paying any tax [ compared to those on PAYE ] and who would always offer you services without VAT if you paid cash.
Historians will marvel at how out of their way the Boris Tories went to lose an election.
It's TMay to Yakety Sax again: Spend the time in government doing pissy small-bore populist things to for a day or two of headlines, then right before the election, announce really good, important policies to solve serious long-term problems, in ways that are easy for their opponents to demagogue.
The Marxists will seize these new two floors of bedrooms/home office space and take for the State.
Not really, he thinks its an amusing comment on the NI border, whereas the fact the government needs extraordinary measures to prevent attempts to blow them up is not really a joking matter
The NI border needs extraordinary measures to prevent attempts to blow them up
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
It is still the same bollox as last thread. For someone who lives in the sweltering concrete cesspit of London it really is a hoot.
You make a typically elegant and perceptive point, malcolm, nonetheless you are not at liberty to dispute the facts. The chart shows that western Scotland gets the same amount of sun as Yakutia, Siberia. Literally.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
LOL, I am never irritable except when confronted by stupidity ( common on here ). We certainly do not get enough sun, but when we do it is exceedingly pleasant , none of your mugginess and crap and no madding crowds to spoil your happiness. I have lived down south and the little extra sun did not make up for the horrible amount of traffic and people. It made it almost impossible to enjoy holidays except in your own garden. PS: Yakutia must be a green and pleasant place PPS: Sun is shining as I post, trees are turning and a fine autumn beckons
I'd rather Fort William in a hoolie than Oxford in a heatwave
The climate of South Devon beats everywhere else.
Planet-wide.
North Norfolk in the winter as an arctic low steams down the North Sea
Late autumn, as Titchwell fills with migrating wildfowl and massive skeins of Pink-foot Geese sail overhead. I could give you that.
Not really, he thinks its an amusing comment on the NI border, whereas the fact the government needs extraordinary measures to prevent attempts to blow them up is not really a joking matter
The NI border needs extraordinary measures to prevent attempts to blow them up
Historians will marvel at how out of their way the Boris Tories went to lose an election.
Doesn't it piss off the same homeowners scared by Theresa May's dementia tax, that they now can't do anything about their neighbours extending upwards and blocking out the sunlight from their garden (or solar panels, or windows).
Yep. It is a master class. I suggest for a follow up they add 10% tax to petrol and scrap the greenbelt.
Is this a serious proposal??!! I presumed it was journalists getting the wrong end of a very tapered stick. The many many pitfalls are screamingly obvious, as you say.
Actually, it accords with studies in the US. The people earning less than USD 20k per year voted for Clinton. It was the band just above that who voted in Trump. The Trump voters and the Brexiteers are classically those who are self-employed, always complaining about taxes, yet themselves hardly paying any tax [ compared to those on PAYE ] and who would always offer you services without VAT if you paid cash.
Earlier this year I was sat next to a consultant radiologist at a dinner. We had an erudite and far-reaching conversation on cancer treatment.
Then, all of a sudden, she announced she had joined the Conservative Party "in order to vote for Boris". Her enthusiasm for him was positively gushing and almost adolescent. "Giggling" was the nearest adjective I could come up with. A complete transformation from sober professional to star-struck groupie.
This is why the opposition parties have a Johnson problem. "Excitement" is priced in. Sadly. His support is based on him being interesting/funny and delivering Brexit.
Comments
This reads to me as bad news from Labour. Given that Labour appears to be the odd one out and the Tories and Lib Dems and Leave Voters [where is the Remain figure?] are rather consistent it appears that people who have abandoned Labour and gone to the Lib Dems/Tories care about Brexit. Makes it unlikely that ambiguous Labour will regain those voters.
If you want rid of the PM then file a Vote of No Confidence. Don't expect Her Majesty to do your dirty work for you, she's not your lackey.
Whether this will persist beyond the 31st October depends a lot on what happens in the next few weeks. If we crash out with No Deal, support for the Tories will dissipate rapidly as the naive optimism about crash-out bumps into reality. If there is an extension, then everything will depend on how well Boris manages to finesse away his breaking of the 'do-or-die' pledge and blame it on the big boys being nasty to him, but I am sure there will be some hit to his support.
Of course, if he somehow manages to make Houdini look like a bumbling amateur at escapology by leaving with a deal on October 31st, then he will win a massive majority and deservedly so. The main problem with pinning your hopes on this is that the opposition parties aren't completely stupid. The second problem is that there isn't enough time.
The Queen's very reluctant to get involved in politics. Dismissing a PM out of hand might just be considered interfering.
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1178269004781228032?s=20
I hope she's not taking the whole year off, what will her constituents do without her regular constituency surgeries.
Victory for the Tories lies in winning seats far down the list of Labour targets, to make up for the 30 or so MPs they could lose in Scotland and in Remain constituencies in England. For Johnson to win a majority, you have to go about 60 seats down the list of Labour seats that the Tories could win, which is when you get to Easington in the north-east of England.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/dominic-cummings-machiavel-downing-street
Easington? Is Dom serious? This all sounds a bit far fetched to me.
My expectation is that the Tories will continue to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by arguing that only Boris Johnson can deliver Brexit, and squeeze Tory-LD switchers by arguing that Johnson is better than Corbyn. And, of course, coming up with some generous post-Brexit spending pledges to squeeze both.
Furthermore, you might almost think that having Parliament force an extension which Johnson can credibly argue to Leave voters he didn't want and did everything he could to prevent, giving him an extra couple months to hold an election without worrying about a no deal Brexit in the middle of the campaign while reinforcing the People VS Parliament narrative he needs to win back Conservatives who have gone over to the Brexit Party, plays right into his hands.
I think the path for Johnson is very narrow, but I wouldn't write his chances off.
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1178570511263178752?s=20
+++
Byronic said:
This is a rather brilliant essay (with fascinating index) on the best places to live in the world, taking into account weather plus crime, costs, etc
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/which-city-has-the-best-climate-in-the-world-355e013e9e95
Look how badly Ireland, Scotland and northern England do on "irradiation" i.e. sun. Practically unique in the world in their sunlessness, only central south China and the Aleutian Islands are worse.
That is quite impressive in a bad way. Explains the Mancunian character.
+++
Also worth noting that on sun hours, the bleakness of northern Ireland and western Scotland are only matched by the desolations of Iceland, Newfoundland, Antarctica, and central northern Siberia.
OUTER northern Siberia is, in sun hours, nicer than Glasgow.
Visit Scotland should use this in their advertising. "Come to Scotland, about as pleasant as Novaya Zemlya".
Bet they are really stupid things like ... no, I won't say.
Let's dial down the rhetoric.
May made it clear she wanted an extension. On a free vote that she called prior to the request going in she was one of a minority of Tory MPs to vote in favour of seeking an election. Boris couldn't have been clearer he doesn't want one. If one happens it will be due to the actions of Grieve etc and show that Boris needs a majority in Parliament.
I think this lack of an effective campaign will depress turnout further among Labour voters who don't much like Corbyn and don't share the metropolitan horror of Boris that was expressed at the Labour conference.
Thigh grabbing is not acceptable
Don't think anyone's suggested Labour will go down to fewer than 60 seats remaining. What's next, in order to gain any seats the Tories need to be winning places like Liverpool Walton?
If women and girls reported every sexual assault, however minor, to the police, they’d be doing little else from about the age of 12 onwards. And doubtless they’d be criticised for diverting the police from “more important” crimes and/or accused of being hysterical about trivial matters. It is beyond tiresome that women have to - as a matter of routine in pretty much all walks of life - put up with chimpanzee-like behaviour from men of all types. It’d be quite nice if they’d grow up and learn some more civilized mating techniques.
Depressingly, I doubt all these stories will affect peoples’ views of Boris one bit: that he’s a priapic liar is priced in. His opponents are making the same mistake as those thinking that all those IRA stories would harm Corbyn during the last GE. Something more than “Boris is a lech” is needed.
1: To wind up the opposition and force them to act sooner than later [they were always going to act]
2: To then get an election
3: To stay within what would be legally possible [a total prorogation to November would have been laughed out of court]
1 worked. 2 and 3 failed but could have worked.
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1178601688577523712
However it's set me thinking. Is Boris actually after a second referendum more than a general election...
And it is somewhere for all those hedge fund billions to invest.
I suppose the voters will hate it.
A simple message , Bozo lied to the Queen , lied to the public and lied to MPs why on earth would you trust what he says on the NHS.
How about:
1. Immigration
2. Sticking it to Tony Blair
3. Telling those toffs in Westminster where to go
4. Brexit
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1178343772972896259
I think fathers of 13-year-old girls sometimes get a glimpse of it and it scares them. They see the looks their child starts to get and they start to how dangerous men can suddenly appear.
I venture this might explain the tendency to mild irritability in your character.
but equally you have from today alone:-
No need for borders - against the picture of the Midland Hotel
No need for extensions - as every householder is allowed an extension as long as they want.
Charlotte Easton (?) could have made these allegations public - or complained to the police - at any point in the last 20 years.
She could have done so during the #metoo campaign a couple of years ago
And yet she chooses to make a word-against-word allegation at a time it will draw the most attention and thereby benefit her career the most while potentially damaging the accused the most
That doesn’t seem equitable to me.
PS: Yakutia must be a green and pleasant place
PPS: Sun is shining as I post, trees are turning and a fine autumn beckons
A (bad) analogy would be if people were talking about, say, the amount of sunlight in one or other european capitals and you said that every time you had been to Paris it had been raining. You wouldn't have said that during any other conversation but it was relevant and of interest to people at that moment.
They'll do neither. I regret that Johnson can safely ignore them.
Planet-wide.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-squeezed-middle/
#meToo came into existence because women are often highly disadvantaged in these situations. Whilst some men have been assaulted by women, the vast majority of assaults is the other way round.
That doesn’t seem equitable to me - but I do not want men to achieve equality of assault. I would just like to get through the day without having my a*se grabbed.
It's just that, for me, there isn't enough of these sunny days; even in relatively sunnier London I get immiserated by the grey.
As ever the ideal would be a mix. A London flat plus a nice little home in the Greek islands would suit me. Plus maybe a botlhole in Thailand. And a ranch in Arizona. I don't ask for much.
The Trump voters and the Brexiteers are classically those who are self-employed, always complaining about taxes, yet themselves hardly paying any tax [ compared to those on PAYE ] and who would always offer you services without VAT if you paid cash.
It's not as though the hotel at the Tory Party conference has ever been targeted by terrorists, is it?
That's the point. You missed it. Again.
And then get retweeted by Scott.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia7lOoQ9XaA
Then, all of a sudden, she announced she had joined the Conservative Party "in order to vote for Boris". Her enthusiasm for him was positively gushing and almost adolescent. "Giggling" was the nearest adjective I could come up with. A complete transformation from sober professional to star-struck groupie.
This is why the opposition parties have a Johnson problem. "Excitement" is priced in. Sadly. His support is based on him being interesting/funny and delivering Brexit.