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Scariest Part of Gold Crash? No One Knows Why It Happened (CNBC)
The two-day crash in the price of gold is one of the most devastating asset sell-offs ever witnessed on Wall Street, right up there with the stock market crash of 1987. What makes it that much worse is no one is exactly sure why it happened.
And until investors get some answers, the selling may continue, they say.
"Unless you have a catalyst, 'cheap' gets a lot cheaper during a crash in price expectations," said Keith McCullough of Hedgeye Risk Management. "Old Wall calls it 'catching a falling knife' for a reason."
Gold posted its biggest two-day dollar drop ever and its biggest percentage drop since 1980 when the carnage settled Monday. Prices rebounded slightly in early trading Tuesday. It's now down 26 percent from its 2011 high. (For the latest price, click here.)
"We are running out of superlatives to attach to the gold price move since last Friday," Nomura analyst Tyler Broda wrote in a note to clients. "The rarity of a move like this is notable."
It seems like every trader on Wall Street has a theory for the move. Most commonly cited are fears of central bank selling (especially Cyprus), exchange-traded funds liquidation, global deflation setting in, a weak yen strengthening the dollar, and mysterious hedge funds blowing up from margin calls.
"The major holders of gold other than the U.S. (i.e., the EU and England) need gold to support their economies and banks," said Sean Egan of Egan-Jones research. "A little selling has a major impact on supply and feeds price declines and follow-on selling." But the Cyprus theory has yet to be proven. Reportedly, there is an internal debate still raging inside Cyprus to sell gold to pay its growing bailout tab, but they have not sold any gold yet.
Many say there may not be a fundamental reason to pinpoint for the bullion crash. After all, the metal has no fundamentals like cash flows or dividends, so it is only worth what others are willing to pay for it. After a 13-year run, perhaps it was time for other assets like Treasurys and high-yielding stocks to gain favor among the safe-haven crowd.
"Commodities trade even more technically than other assets since it's futures driven," said Enis Taner, global macro editor for RiskReversal.com. The crash "was technical more than anything in my view."
Taner points to the $1,530 to $1,550 area for gold, which was support for the metal for almost two years. Once it broke below that, the rush for the exits started.
And that's where a new facet of this trade, which was not around in 1980, may have thrown fuel on the fire: ETFs. They give the average Joe access to the gold futures market and these less sophisticated investors may not have the same pain threshold or capital as institutional investors.
(Read More: Mark Fisher: Gold Bulls Should Love This)
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the most popular gold ETF, traded 150 million shares during the two-day slam, more than the total volume of the previous 16 days. This smacks of panic selling.
"The gold market metrics are in uncharted territory," said David Greenberg of Greenberg Capital. "The GLD effects on gold in a panic sell-off have never been tested."
History has shown that once gold enters a bear market (20 percent off high), it keeps going lower by another 14 percent on average, according to data going back to 1975 crunched by Bespoke Investment Group. That would put the metal well below $1,300.
"While no one of these explanations may be sufficient to explain a 20 percent move, collectively they all matter," said Robert Savage, chief strategist at FX Concepts and previous director of FX macro sales at Goldman Sachs. "Gold is unlikely to bounce much—it's a heavy metal after all—with the larger medium term risk of $1,100."
I'm looking forward to the post-mortem of the May elections.
EDIT - corrected now
(love the music refs by the way!)
The body of the Angus Reid webpage is at odds with its graphics:
See:
Across Britain, 39 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-3 since January) would support the Labour candidate in their constituency in the next General Election.
The Conservative Party is in second place with 29 per cent (=), followed by UKIP with 16 per cent (+5) and the Liberal Democrats with eight per cent (-2). Support is lower for the Scottish National Party (SNP) (3%), the Green Party (also 3%) and the British National Party (BNP) (2%).
It is so messed up that I can only conclude that Pork did the polling.
As polling dates were 12-13 April it is almost certainly best binning.
Added the Tory figure.
tim said:
Angus Reid poll
Con 27
Lab 39
UKIP 16
LD 8
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48753/labour-party-still-first-ukip-reaches-16-in-british-politics/
Hehe; Ukip still beating the L/Dems it seems. But why does Angus Reid drape the parties in such abismal colours. I mean the L/Dems are in a sickly green hue: that may be because they are really feeling sick on these results.
Which is very naughty of them.
NOTE that in US, law enforcement is NOT centralized as in UK. While FBI is lead agency in investigating Boston Marathon Bombings, and US Justice Dept may well end up being lead prosecutors, main jurisdiction is state & local. Meaning in this instance City of Bostonn (BPD) and Commonwealth of Massachusetts (Mass State Police) and (for legal prosecution) Suffolk County.
Speaking of the latter, there's currently some kind of threat/flap at the Courthouse, according to Boston Globe live blog:
http://live.boston.com/Event/Live_blog_Explosion_in_Copley_Square
This poll sadly predates Lansley becoming PM as you predicted. As will all polling since your prediction was hilarious lunacy.
Liberal Party = 43%
Conservative Party = 30%
New Democratic Party = 19%
Bloc Quebecois = 5%
Green Party = 2%
Other = 1%
I'd avoid the poll too. You may find the SNP bits indigestible.
From Globe & Mail:
104,552 Liberal members and supporters cast a ballot in the leadership race, making turnout 82.16 per cent.
The party’s voting system gave Canada’s 308 ridings equal weight in the final tally. Each riding was given 100 points, and a candidate got the number of points equal to the percentage of votes they won in that riding.
There were 30,800 points in total, with 15,401 needed to win. The final results:
•Former cabinet minister Martin Cauchon got 815 points.
•Toronto lawyer Deborah Coyne got 214 points.
•Former MP Martha Hall Findlay got 1,760 points.
•Retired military officer Karen McCrimmon got 210 points.
•B.C. MP Joyce Murray got 3,130 points.
•Quebec MP Justin Trudeau got 24,668 points, winning in the first round of the preferential ballot.
As you can see, Trudeau the Younger had no serious competition, for what at the moment many regard as a poisoned chalice. OF COURSE that's what many said nearly a century ago, when William Lyon Mackenzie King was chosen Liberal leader, at the (then) nadir of the party's fortunes. He & Grits went on to dominate Canadian politics, during his lifetime and for another half century thereafter.
Part of Justin T's problem is the lingering dislike>hatred for his father's memory in western Canada AND Quebec. Does that remind you of anything from today's news???
It is so difficult to know who is leading the Labour party these days.
Dimbleby referred to Michael and Amanda as Baroness Thatcher's "granddaughters"
Dimbleby misread the label on the floral wreath as "Always In Our Minds" when it actually said "Always In Our Hearts"
Dimbleby accidentally said that Thatcher was "not against Apartheid" when he meant "not for Apartheid"
Wonder how far ahead they would be with a popular leader.
Named for former longtime US Rep. Joe Moakley, one of the above-average members of the Bay State delegation, indeed the entire US Congress.
Of course, that was back in the day when Senators & Representative of BOTH parties (trying to stay calm here!) believed they were sent to Our Nation's Capital to get things done, NOT to keep things from happennig.
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/features/columnists/latest/10362048.Two_front_pages_for_the_two_sides_of_the_Thatcher_debate/
....newsagents can show the one they prefer tomorrow...or the one that would make them sell more copies
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls
Haven't they?
Anyway, the rancid old bat is a pile of ashes now, not technically a corpse.
Con 38%
Lab 24%
UKIP 20%
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48753/labour-party-still-first-ukip-reaches-16-in-british-politics/
Congressman Peter King has pointed the finger at Jihadists or specifically Al Qaeda. His logic is sound, though time will tell whether correct. Interestingly he referred to the Saudi man questioned as not being in the clear quite yet.
Certainly police have also spoken to one of his associates and were seeking another late Monday.
The question is whether King being fed by his own connections within the counter terror intelligence community that his privelaged position has got him or he's putting two and two together to get an understandable four.
This much is sure, every time there is a suggestion of jihadist inspired possibilities the investigators seek to silence it.
King of course knows his way around terrorists, he spent plenty making mates with violent Irish nationalists.
Indeed they now will. Mark my words.
China’s local government debt is out of control and could trigger a larger financial crisis than the US housing market crash, a senior auditor from the country told the Financial Times.
Zhang Ke, of accounting firm ShinWing, said China’s struggles had prompted his company to stop signing off on bond sales by local governments.
"We audited some local government bond issues and found them very dangerous, so we pulled out,"said Zhang, who is also Vice-Chairman of China’s accounting association.
"Most don’t have strong debt servicing abilities. Things could become very serious."
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns about Chinese government debt, it is unusual for an established figure in the nation’s financial industry like Zhang to make such a statement.
"It is already out of control," Zhang said. "A crisis is possible. But since the debt is being rolled over and is long-term, the timing of its explosion is uncertain."
China’s provinces, cities, counties and villages are estimated to owe between Rmb10tn and Rmb20tn, which represents about 20% to 40% of the economy.
The debts began to rise after 2008 when Beijing relaxed borrowing restraints to spur growth during the financial crisis.
Fitch last week cut China’s sovereign credit rating. Moody’s also cut its outlook for China’s rating from ‘positive’ to ‘stable’ on Tuesday.
Local governments have been issuing bonds under special purpose vehicles to evade rules that prohibit them from directly raising debt.
Investment companies owned by local governments sold Rmb283bn of bonds in the first quarter of 2013, more than double than the same period last year. While that would normally be expected to help drive the economy, China’s growth slowed 7.7% in the first quarter of 2013.
BenM will be on in a minute to claim this is necessary stimulus borrowing.
Can there be a more odious and hypocritical politician out there than King?
Probably but he's up there.
It may be a dip that lasts days or one that persists over a longer period. We need to wait and see,
Miliband is innocent in that he has behaved impeccably over Thatcher's death, even to the point of donning a morning coat to attend the funeral.
But he can't help being tarred by his loony and militant left.
Perhaps he needs a UKIP type party to shield him? I shall speak to some potential sponsors.
Having thought about it deeply I would rather snog Brian Coleman than have to engage Peter King in polite conversation.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scotland-must-have-own-currency-after-yes-vote.20811822
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2013/04/italian-politics
Renzi is revolting ("can you picture Marini on the phone with Obama?"). I guess many PD activists won't like the choice of Marini either. 90 PD MPs voted against the choice tonight (222 in favour).
Don't underestimate the stupidity of tea party tory anecdotes about a terrible backlash.
Indeed if they don't meet the weight requirements of the most amusingly out of touch PB tories, those Trots will feel the wrath of the PB Public Relations incompetents. ;^)
They don't support the Tories because the Tories don't represent their interests and have no desire to represent their interests.
LOL
Not exactly a landslide for Romney then was it? Even if we ignore the electoral college hammering.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/450-public-sector-jobs-lost-daily-231130460.html;_ylt=AkHeUkoNvVYYab3ZoPerA9jFfMl_;_ylu=X3oDMTRkOGxlNm1kBG1pdANVSyBzZWN0aW9uIG1peGVkIGxpc3QEcGtnA2IxYTg2NWFhLTBhZDgtMzNhYy1hZDZiLTU0NzkxYjE0YmE1NARwb3MDOARzZWMDTWVkaWFCTGlzdE1peGVkTF#PHC35lG
LOL
Do we have the figures yet?
Extraordinarily loose monetary policy risks sparking new and dangerous credit bubbles which threaten to tip the world back into financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/916252a0-a738-11e2-9fbe-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2QjLW3dHe
Extraordinary fun on Sky News as Ed Conway announced today's IMF warnings and then tried to claim that they didn't invalidate Blancmange's "criticism" of Osborne yesterday.
As a famous Scot would say:
Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/july/1/newsid_2489000/2489179.stm
http://www.londontoolkit.com/lhr/hilton_lhr_t5.htm
http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g1096482-d2261978-Reviews-Hilton_London_Heathrow_Airport_Terminal_5-Colnbrook_Berkshire_England.html
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/what-lies-behind-labours-shrinking-poll-
If we did defeat, who would there be to annoy?
OK, not working class, but provincial middle class in an age where this would have been a greater barrier to advancement than today.
The really interesting bit is that he was educated at the The King's School, Grantham. Margaret Thatcher was educated at the equivalent school for girls, Kesteven and Grantham Girls School. Both won scholarships to study at Cambridge and Oxford respectively.
There must be something in the Grantham air that causes its children to achieve,
The humiliation of the left? Did I sleep through that? I thought there was some kind of funeral going on?
By the way, Attlee is the most radical PM we have ever had, and a fair bit of the good that he did even survived the devastation of the 1980s.
Still, don't let me interrupt your inverted snobbery. "Thatcherite outlaws" are full of irony.
Here is the evidence:
Burying the 1980s is not a straight- forward business, not in Britain where that decade occupies a similar space to that of the 1960s in the US: the period when our "culture wars" were at their most intense, the divisions raw and open. At the centre, governing every day of that decade — elected just before it and deposed just after it – was Margaret Thatcher. So what more fitting moment to draw a line under that vexed period and call a truce than at her funeral?
Except Thatcher was never in the truce business and, for all its elegance and piety, the ceremony in St Paul's was not either. It was rather an event which sought, however subtly, to declare victory in the titanic struggles of that era. Its message, tacit but unmistakable: "That time is over – and Thatcher won."
Read more of Jonathan Freedland on http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/17/margaret-thatcher-funeral-report
If you decide against then you may miss the knife turning::
"We are all Thatcherites now," David Cameron had said a few hours before the procession. It was the most explicit statement to date of what the day – and the last week – has been about, even if the Telegraph scolded him for politicising an event that was meant, the paper said, to be non-political. In other words, he had given the game away. The Lady's authorised biographer, Charles Moore, was even more candid, telling Radio 5 Live: "Thatcher is reviled in parts of the country that are less important."