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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s general election plan on Brexit- it looks as though the fudge will continue
As well as the side shows of the move against Watson that were pulled and the top Corbyn advisor who has quit the the big story about behind the secenes in Brighton appears to have been the policy, or non-policy, on Brexit.
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Time to focus on fantasy league.
Also just because the party is on the fence doesn't mean that their candidates have to be. If Corbyn stays then Labour will likely hardly be making any gains, and their job is mainly to limit the losses to Con. A lot of the Con targets are quite leave-ish, so there's something to be said for giving the incumbents the ability to pick a message that appeals to their voters.
I know there's a benefit to having a clear message, but I think that ship has already sailed.
For the Record: we had gone cap in hand to the IMF in the 1970s – a humiliation seared into the memories of my generation.
David Cameron was born in 1966 so by my calculation, he'd have been just ten in 1976.
A surprise on our Sunday morning promenade down East Ham High Street to see the Brexit Party with a stall and some volunteers.
I was handed a copy of "The Brexiteer" which is an interesting read - the idea of Ann Widdecombe as a pro-Brexit Agony Aunt is one I hadn't considered before.
Clearly BP see themselves as having a real chance of taking the ultra-marginal East Ham constituency from Stephen Timms who is handing on to his tiny 39,883 majority.
To be fair, the BP finished third across Newham in the European Elections, behind the LDs but in front of both the Greens and the Conservatives. Probably just worth mentioning Labour still managed more than half the vote so not easy for the Faragists on that evidence.
They won’t get any thanks from a hyper partisan media for it because no one actually cares about policy anymore and its all about ways to attack Corbyn.
I say this as an “ultra die hard remainer” and professional Corbyn-detester.
In fairness to Mr Corbyn it might be Scottish Labour that is the problem, with its divergent attitudes to Mr C's policies, and Mr Leonard's leadership - it only emphasises how one doesn't know what one is getting when one votes Labour. Vide the party conference today. And the dithering over Indyref 2 doesn't help. It only puts off remainers of whatever persuasion - they can go to the SNP or the new thuggish LDs who only believe in referenda when it suits them.
Isn’t it illegal itself to call for someone else to commit an illegal act?
Hopefully Mr Roberts loses his academic sinecures and is sent to prison.
There has to be a deal...even if we crash out we have to have a deal ion due course....
We need to present the best deal against the status quo.....
No deal is a fantasy...and the LD position is just divisive, and anti-democratic
Quite interesting that the Westcountry was also very Brexity.
Corbyn's other problem in Tory-Lab marginals is that this kind of fudge is unlikely to placate leavers from turning to the Tories as they're not totally stupid, and know a Labour Brexit policy is unlikely to meet their demands of Brexit - especially as they mistrust Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott for other reasons.
https://twitter.com/mrsnickyclark/status/1175646334763896833?s=21
Shag Boris and you can get your hands on hundreds of thousands of public money.
In response to the news that Emily Thornberry described the Lib Dems as “like the Taliban” over their new revoke Article 50 Brexit policy, the former Lib Dem leader responded:
“Come on Emily, if we really were like a Middle East terrorist group, don’t you think Jeremy would’ve invited us to a conference fringe meeting before now?”
The strongest discriminant as to whether a Welsh seat voted to Leave is if the seat voted Labour.
***Every Labour seat outside Cardiff voted to Leave.***
The seats that did not were either Tory or Plaid Cymru held.
Leonard should be doing something like what Sadiq Khan is doing and needling the Labour leadership on Brexit at every opportunity to get on the right side of his remainer voters. Leonard has barely uttered a peep and as a result is getting slaughtered. Unless you're a Lexiteer (and there aren't many of them, except in Corbyn's office) there's just no reason on Earth to vote S Lab. If you're relaxed about Independence you have the SNP. If you're a remainer there's the Lib Dems - both who'll support a referendum if in a coalition. If you're pro-Brexit and a Unionst there's the Tories. If you're pro-Brexit and a bit of a nihilist there's the BXP.
Labour are going to get marmalised.
As an aside, a friend of mine has a fudge shop (no, really).
https://twitter.com/HollyBlueDorset
For reasons of loyalty, I selflessly bought myself a box from there a little while ago. Especially liked the coffee fudge.
It shouldn't be that way but it seems it is these days.
From the questions, I'd guess the customer was the Conservative party. One of the questions related to whether Boris should break the law or not and ignore the Benn Act.
Edit - don't forget though that Powys voted leave, which doesn't fit either pattern comfortably. Although it's also one of the more anglicised parts of Wales in terms of language, if not perhaps population.
In such a scenario, the referendum will be just as divisive as revoking article 50.
" ....whereas Welsh-speaking areas such as Gwynedd and Ceredigion saw high remain votes."
The Welsh-speaking areas of Carmarthen and Ynys Mon voted to Leave.
I suspect the behaviour of Gwynedd and Ceredigion is more to do with the fact that they are the West Walian seats with Universities.
FWIW, I think the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave -- which will present Plaid Cymru with a serious problem given that they have decided that their main function in a general election is to ensure the greater glory of Jo Swinson.
Mr L does not seem to have a very high voter recognition profile, does he? Not a peep on Ms Davidson.
I was just reading the conference news this weekend and thinking also that the flagship policies being touted by the UK Labour Party - not that there is a separate Scottish one, which doesn't help either - include:
- free prescriptions
- free personal care for the old
- removing the fiscal advantages of private schools
- and, if one includes previous speeches in Scotland by Mr Corbyn, renationalising water, doing away with the bedroom tax etc
Yet all of those are already part of the scene in Scotland or being considered (abolition of business rates relief for private schools IIRC). And in some cases bitterly opposed by Slab (e.g. IIRC Johann Lamont 'something for nothing').
Not exactly relevant, are they, to Scotland? Except to highlight how badly run England must therefore be at present: and it's not the SNP saying it. but Labour out of their own mouths.
Unfortunately that is not politically viable.
We’re f*cked either way but we’re probably better off long-term being f*cked whilst remaining in the European Union.
🔶
To be honest, glancing at a map with narrowed eyes I would say that like England the ex-industrial deprived areas voted Leave and the more affluent areas voted Remain. But I'm aware that's a simplification and as crude as any other simplification.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1175727554407407616?s=20
In turn, that could lead to a Remain win with a far lower turnout, and possibly fewer supporters for Remain than for Leave in the first referendum.
It'd also fully energise 'hard' Leavers behind the notion, made just by the antics of Remainers, that demanding another referendum is legitimate.
However, despite those drawbacks, it's still infinitely preferably to Swinson's demented, and unnecessary own goal, policy of revocation by Parliament.
The Code of Conduct of the GLA would be another starting point, I guess.
Of course, Brexit will not be the only issue in a GE too, same as in Wales.
It's an idiotic policy.
Edited extra bit: cut a slightly OTT comparison, as, on reflection, it didn't really add anything to the debate.
I don't discount your view on how unpleasant a referendum campaign might be. But Parliamentary revocation would, I think, but substantially worse.
Immigration from outside Britain less of an issue, but English incomers driving a nationalist Remain vote too. Like in Scotland, Brussels is seen as a counterweight to London.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1175799860508995584?s=20
The XR protests in October look big from what a little bird tells me. BoZo is going to need those extra coppers.
But for Ministers to actually break the law themselves? That is quite obviously the short cut to total anarchy.
His defence on Brexit is that he's doing certain things which are close to the line for the greater good of securing Britain's prompt departure from the EU as voted for in 2016. I don't agree with this argument, but I can understand it, and I can understand why quite a few people side with him on it.
If he was giving contracts and other favours to his mistress without disclosing the existence of the personal relationship and the obvious conflict involved in making decisions about awarding contracts... well, who can seriously defend that? There's no "greater good" defence - it'd be fairly straightforward corruption.
'Remaniac lawyers'
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1175777835979563008?s=20
What a triumph for Brexiteers!
Any chance the Justice Secretary might show some backbone and actually do something about these briefings?
No, kidding ☺
Just seen my 1st "Get Ready!" advert from HMG.
For an extension, I presume, although it didn't mention that.
https://news.sky.com/story/thomas-cook-begs-lenders-to-slash-200m-demand-11817027
No, not the legal arguments, the way they start a line with 'mainiac.'
*sighs*
And I say that content if the judges were to rule the government's actions had been entirely lawful. But I get the impression they hope that is not the ruling, just more reasons they can complain then.
I suspect the health insurance one will be pertinent to seasonally migrant pensioners with existing health conditions. While the Isle of Wight is delightful in the summer, the winter there is less attractive. That EHIC may well be missed surely.