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  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Looking at his tweets, it seems like the Mail story is some allegation about his dealing in regards this property.

    I don't read even that in his tweets. He mentions an accusation of "bad motive" in keeping his residence out of the public domain. That could easily mean accusing him of portraying him as someone from a poor background (which is indeed something he has said) but who is now in fact very wealthy.
    If so, it's utterly irrelevant to the court cases, and this smacks of petty jealous revenge. Class warfare in the MoS! Whatever next?
  • Noo said:

    Looking at his tweets, it seems like the Mail story is some allegation about his dealing in regards this property.

    I don't read even that in his tweets. He mentions an accusation of "bad motive" in keeping his residence out of the public domain. That could easily mean accusing him of portraying him as someone from a poor background (which is indeed something he has said) but who is now in fact very wealthy.
    If so, it's utterly irrelevant to the court cases, and this smacks of petty jealous revenge. Class warfare in the MoS! Whatever next?
    If the story is just rich man owns big house, he will be seeing them court.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Seems the move against Watson is off. Much ado about nothing.

    Or was it?

    Remember at GE17 when Labour cocked up the release of their manifesto? Leaked first, much confusion, comment, noise - bottom line, instead of a smoothly managed launch we had chaotic scenes with Jeremy emerging from a building and waving it about on the pavement in the middle of a media scrum.

    The net effect was positive for the party. It drew attention to the document. It heightened interest in the policies.

    So I wonder. Is the same trick being pulled here with the conference?

    Smart if so - very smart.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I should be heading to Barra today, but difficult family circumstances have kept me closer to home. Pissed off though, very pissed off.... I love my jaunts to the Outer Hebs.

    I am at Sumburgh Head. Weather's nice up here.
    Bit blowy over the west coast I'm told.

    Last time I was at Sumburgh Head I was chasing a River Warbler round a bit of scrub. Skulky little sod!
    Yes no wind shortage here. Headed for Orkney then round the top to Lewis n Harris.
    Sounds like a cracking trip!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    junius said:

    Why did I not twig this before ?

    Labour's leader and deputy leader are...

    'Tom and Jerry'.

    That's all folks.

    You can see one waiting with a frying pn - while the other drops an anvil from the sky.....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Noo said:



    Does it have to be Corbyn himself negotiating it? Couldn't he send a team of people who want a brexit deal with a mandate of "go and get what you can, then you campaign for it in the referendum". Could even be a cross party team.

    That sounds exactly right. The problem is that what would actually be good government - presenting a reasonable choice, allowing the party to campaign, but not plunging in himself - is also a vote-loser in these polarised times, while saying "We'll overturn the referendum without bothering to ask again" or "We'll pull out regardless of the damage that it causes" are both popular positions, as they appear to have the smack of firm direction. Most people aren't following the details and they just want it sorted one way or the other.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    kinabalu said:

    Seems the move against Watson is off. Much ado about nothing.

    Or was it?

    Remember at GE17 when Labour cocked up the release of their manifesto? Leaked first, much confusion, comment, noise - bottom line, instead of a smoothly managed launch we had chaotic scenes with Jeremy emerging from a building and waving it about on the pavement in the middle of a media scrum.

    The net effect was positive for the party. It drew attention to the document. It heightened interest in the policies.

    So I wonder. Is the same trick being pulled here with the conference?

    Smart if so - very smart.

    Well that’s a view. So this stunt was to draw attention to and interest in Tom Watson?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    How is that in the public interest?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Pretty good lap from Norris.
    The new generation of F1 is beginning to assert itself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Well that’s a view. So this stunt was to draw attention to and interest in Tom Watson?

    No, the conference!

    And thereby the policies.

    I'm not normally someone who sees conspiracy in cock up - and probably this is nonsense that I'm talking here - but no harm floating it.
  • Interesting tweet on why Corbyn backed off (for now):
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1175324553897218050

    Gordon Brown did a lot to create a culture of "for me or against me" within the Labour Party as part of his struggle for the leadership. This eventually bore fruit when no-one was able to gather enough nominations to stand against him.

    It has caused trouble for the Labour Party ever since. It undermined Ed Miliband. It seems to force everyone in Labour in being either an uncritical supporter of the leader, or a Tory fifth-columnist seeking to bring him down.

    What is true of the Labour Party will become true of the country if he becomes Prime Minister. There will be no room left for nuance or debate.

    Unfortunately this is already true with Johnson as Prime Minister.

    How do we get out of this mess?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Leeds looking like repeating last years Stirling efforts to throw away games they have utterly dominated
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The Mail on Sunday can be deeply irresponsible, but I don’t think they’d publish an address unless they needed to, or indeed HAD to.

    Imagine if they did doxx someone, and then we had a horrible Jo Cox incident? The paper would have to close.

    So there’s some important info missing here.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited September 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Well that’s a view. So this stunt was to draw attention to and interest in Tom Watson?

    No, the conference!

    And thereby the policies.

    I'm not normally someone who sees conspiracy in cock up - and probably this is nonsense that I'm talking here - but no harm floating it.
    You may be right. I doubt it. More likely Mr Corbyn did his “Sir Robin” act and bravely ran away.

    If Labour have to pretend to threaten one of their own and incur severe warnings from relatively popular ex Labour PM’s then they’re in more trouble than I even imagine.

    Would have been better to announce they’re nationalising every tree and then deny it than do this.

    There are....better ways of drawing attention to a conference. A reasonably popular leader for one.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Byronic said:

    The Mail on Sunday can be deeply irresponsible, but I don’t think they’d publish an address unless they needed to, or indeed HAD to.

    Imagine if they did doxx someone, and then we had a horrible Jo Cox incident? The paper would have to close.

    So there’s some important info missing here.

    If the story is the rich elite against the people I mean so a QC is rich , who would have thought !

  • Byronic said:

    The Mail on Sunday can be deeply irresponsible, but I don’t think they’d publish an address unless they needed to, or indeed HAD to.

    Imagine if they did doxx someone, and then we had a horrible Jo Cox incident? The paper would have to close.

    So there’s some important info missing here.

    We wait and see. Maybe the twitter outrage will save the day, as for Tom Watson?

    Wouldn't be the first time a newspaper had to close because of an awful error of judgement, though. Dangerous to assume there must be more to the story on the basis of their infallibility.
  • Given the Cameron and Stokes stories this week, you would have thought the MoS editors / lawyers would be in ultra cautious mode in regards to running stories that contain contentious info.
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently the Mail on Sunday have informed Jo Maugham instrumental in the prorogation case that they will be publishing his home address in their paper tomorrow even though he’s already received death threats .

    This is utterly despicable behaviour . Will they also be publishing the SC judges addresses in future if they go against the government !

    Source?

    Whilst I don't believe that home addresses should be published, I would rather like to know the source of this - as it strikes me as rather implausible.

    If people want to send death threats (which, of course, they shouldn't - but there will always be loons both dangerous and not), then his email and work details are out in the public domain anyway.
    Jo maugham tweeted it himself
    Firstly, I am not sure why the MoS would tell him that in advance
    Secondly, I cannot recall any paper publishing someone's address in this way.

    They can often allude to things with 'outside his leafy Hampstead home' or some such - that can give someone a good start in tracking down the necessary details.

    Plus one of his properties is mentioned on his Wikipedia profile - he may well have other homes, but one, at least, is very much in the public domain.

    I am still somewhat sceptical about this. It feels more like Maugham keeping his name in the media. I may be wrong - but it doesn't hang true based on the limited info we have
    It’s irrelevant whether some of his info is in the public domain . Drawing attention to his address in a likely hatchet job given the toxic atmosphere is completely unnaceptable.

    I am not saying it is acceptable.

    What I am questioning is clear - Why would they tell him in advance if they were intent on doing him some harm? Given Maugham's love of the courts system, any newspaper would know that an alert of this sort is going to be subject to some sort of challenge.
    So they can play the "millionaire lawyer gags newspaper from telling YOU where he lives" card?
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently the Mail on Sunday have informed Jo Maugham instrumental in the prorogation case that they will be publishing his home address in their paper tomorrow even though he’s already received death threats .

    This is utterly despicable behaviour . Will they also be publishing the SC judges addresses in future if they go against the government !

    Source?

    Whilst I don't believe that home addresses should be published, I would rather like to know the source of this - as it strikes me as rather implausible.

    If people want to send death threats (which, of course, they shouldn't - but there will always be loons both dangerous and not), then his email and work details are out in the public domain anyway.
    Jo maugham tweeted it himself
    Firstly, I am not sure why the MoS would tell him that in advance
    Secondly, I cannot recall any paper publishing someone's address in this way.

    They can often allude to things with 'outside his leafy Hampstead home' or some such - that can give someone a good start in tracking down the necessary details.

    Plus one of his properties is mentioned on his Wikipedia profile - he may well have other homes, but one, at least, is very much in the public domain.

    I am still somewhat sceptical about this. It feels more like Maugham keeping his name in the media. I may be wrong - but it doesn't hang true based on the limited info we have
    It’s irrelevant whether some of his info is in the public domain . Drawing attention to his address in a likely hatchet job given the toxic atmosphere is completely unnaceptable.

    I am not saying it is acceptable.

    What I am questioning is clear - Why would they tell him in advance if they were intent on doing him some harm? Given Maugham's love of the courts system, any newspaper would know that an alert of this sort is going to be subject to some sort of challenge.
    So they can play the "millionaire lawyer gags newspaper from telling YOU where he lives" card?
    Given that circulation is what matters, I can't see that shifting more copies or generating more click-through
  • Somebody down thread wondered if Labour could get through conference without pissing off the Jews....well they have scheduled a debate on changes to antisemitism rules for today...the Shabbat...Jewish Labour Movement aren't happy.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: very tasty qualifying session.

    Mr. Urquhart, quelle surprise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    edited September 2019
    Watford on the wrong end of a pissed off City...... 3-0 after 12 minutes.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently the Mail on Sunday have informed Jo Maugham instrumental in the prorogation case that they will be publishing his home address in their paper tomorrow even though he’s already received death threats .

    This is utterly despicable behaviour . Will they also be publishing the SC judges addresses in future if they go against the government !

    Source?

    Whilst I don't believe that home addresses should be published, I would rather like to know the source of this - as it strikes me as rather implausible.

    If people want to send death threats (which, of course, they shouldn't - but there will always be loons both dangerous and not), then his email and work details are out in the public domain anyway.
    Jo maugham tweeted it himself
    Firstly, I am not sure why the MoS would tell him that in advance
    Secondly, I cannot recall any paper publishing someone's address in this way.

    They can often allude to things with 'outside his leafy Hampstead home' or some such - that can give someone a good start in tracking down the necessary details.

    Plus one of his properties is mentioned on his Wikipedia profile - he may well have other homes, but one, at least, is very much in the public domain.

    I am still somewhat sceptical about this. It feels more like Maugham keeping his name in the media. I may be wrong - but it doesn't hang true based on the limited info we have
    It’s irrelevant whether some of his info is in the public domain . Drawing attention to his address in a likely hatchet job given the toxic atmosphere is completely unnaceptable.

    I am not saying it is acceptable.

    What I am questioning is clear - Why would they tell him in advance if they were intent on doing him some harm? Given Maugham's love of the courts system, any newspaper would know that an alert of this sort is going to be subject to some sort of challenge.
    So they can play the "millionaire lawyer gags newspaper from telling YOU where he lives" card?
    Given that circulation is what matters, I can't see that shifting more copies or generating more click-through
    They are just softening up their readers for the betrayal of
    Jonson by the remain elite when he gets carted off (Johnson that is) to the tower to share a cell with his ‘mate’ Cameron.
  • City 5-0 up against Watford, which isn't surprising.

    They have only played 18 minutes, which is.
  • Mr. Punter, if that rate continues it'll be 25-0 at the whistle.
  • Mr. Punter, if that rate continues it'll be 25-0 at the whistle.

    Hmm....Over or under? Not sure if I'm a buyer or seller.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    City 5-0 up against Watford, which isn't surprising.

    They have only played 18 minutes, which is.

    Five different scorers? I think Liverpool had 8 against Crystal Palace in the early 90s
  • City 5-0 up against Watford, which isn't surprising.

    They have only played 18 minutes, which is.

    https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1175417041848852480?s=20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    City 5-0 up against Watford, which isn't surprising.

    They have only played 18 minutes, which is.

    https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1175417041848852480?s=20
    Nah, no application. They haven't scored a goal for half an hour.

    Could have had a goal difference worth another point by now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    The beauty of sport is that the outcome is never certain. So I wouldn't write off Watford quite yet.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    kinabalu said:

    The beauty of sport is that the outcome is never certain. So I wouldn't write off Watford quite yet.

    Having watched the first semi final of T20 finals day, you can say that again!
  • Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.
  • Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    In 1997 we found out that the minimum number of Tory seats is 165. We may be about to find out the equivalent figure for Labour
  • Non-politics betting question

    I think Liverpool could potentially get to Christmas with a 100% record in the Premier League, winning all games and not dropping any points. Not saying it will happen, just think there's a chance.

    Is there a good way of putting a bet on that and what odds would you say would be fair for something like that? I was talking to someone last night who said go into a physical bookies and he thought that was a 1000/1 shot which I'd happily put the price of a pint on if someone would give odds like that, but not sure where to start. Also not sure if you do walk into a bookies and say something like that would they give reasonable odds or would they think "mug" and give crap odds?

    Any advice?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    In 1997 we found out that the minimum number of Tory seats is 165. We may be about to find out the equivalent figure for Labour
    Damn these 2017 flashbacks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Non-politics betting question

    I think Liverpool could potentially get to Christmas with a 100% record in the Premier League, winning all games and not dropping any points. Not saying it will happen, just think there's a chance.

    Is there a good way of putting a bet on that and what odds would you say would be fair for something like that? I was talking to someone last night who said go into a physical bookies and he thought that was a 1000/1 shot which I'd happily put the price of a pint on if someone would give odds like that, but not sure where to start. Also not sure if you do walk into a bookies and say something like that would they give reasonable odds or would they think "mug" and give crap odds?

    Any advice?

    you would likely get good odds but I doubt it will be near 1000-1. If you look at it, apart from Man City there is a high probability that they will beat or draw with any other team.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    What makes you confidant of that?

    with the SNP showing no singe of weakaning.

    the LD surging in normally safe strong remain seats

    The Brexit party support being concentrated in normail safe Leave seats

    The Con vote holding up sufficiently to come though the middle in marginals where Lab loses some to each of LD and BP.

    The possibility for a devastation is there.

    Between Corbyn and Brexit UK politics is changing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: very tasty qualifying session.

    Mr. Urquhart, quelle surprise.

    Though I clearly jinxed Norris, poor guy.
  • CatMan said:
    I'd forgotten about the 'red tape' one; that was probably one of the first to go. Are there any left? Even 'Brexit will take the drunken smirk off of Juncker's face' seems to be clinging to life these days.
  • Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    Having played around with some figures in Baxter (is that the best one nowadays?), that does look right.
    Plugging in 25% for each of Con/Lab/LibDem, with 20% for Brexit produces an interesting result (Lab 70 short of overall majority, Con gain 3, LibDems on 95 and 5 Brexit MPs).
    But if Con ahead they may well have a majority.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    CatMan said:
    Turkeys voting for Christmas !

    Most fish and seafood caught by UK fishermen is exported to the EU , so in effect they just trashed their main export market .

    A lot of the seafood has to exported live , it’s a shame these fishermen didn’t engage their brains when they voted like sheep for Brexit .
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    kinabalu said:

    Noo said:

    But that is why Corbyn is exactly right to say in a second referendum he'd stay neutral and let individuals campaign as they see fit.

    Yep. It works just fine.

    Choice between (very) Soft Brexit and Remain, PM neutral, Labour MPs and members decide individually which side to back, most will be Remain but not all - public decides.

    The Deal will be the WA plus the PD amended for close alignment. The EU will play ball since both outcomes are acceptable to them.

    A valid criticism is that this Ref formulation steers to Remain in that it has no Hard Leave option. A valid criticism is NOT that the policy is confusing or difficult to understand. On the contrary it is very easy to understand. In fact I am not sure I have come across anything as easy as this to get my head around since I discovered Noddy books at the age of 15.
    It is very difficult to believe a position which is for someone to want to be PM so that he can then renegotiate a deal - a deal which he will then not support in a referendum.

    That isn't a credible position as far as I am concerned. How can he be taken seriously in a negotiation when the people on the other side of the table know that he won't go out of his way to support the deal that they have spent many months creating.

    But then Corbyn doesn't know what his current policy is - as was clear in his BBC NI interview.
    Actually on this one I have no problem. Wilson was "neutral", sort of. If Cameron stayed in No.10, he'd have won.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    nico67 said:

    CatMan said:
    Turkeys voting for Christmas !

    Most fish and seafood caught by UK fishermen is exported to the EU , so in effect they just trashed their main export market .

    A lot of the seafood has to exported live , it’s a shame these fishermen didn’t engage their brains when they voted like sheep for Brexit .
    Even worse the turkeys think the Tories will protect them, how many kicks in the teeth will it take for them to get it.
  • Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    Having played around with some figures in Baxter (is that the best one nowadays?), that does look right.
    Plugging in 25% for each of Con/Lab/LibDem, with 20% for Brexit produces an interesting result (Lab 70 short of overall majority, Con gain 3, LibDems on 95 and 5 Brexit MPs).
    But if Con ahead they may well have a majority.
    Flavible is a bit different with its predictions, it seems kinder to the smaller parties. With figures as close as I can get to the above, there's 120 LibDems and 20 Brexit, with Labour still largest party but both them and the Tories down.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,893
    edited September 2019
    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    CatMan said:
    Turkeys voting for Christmas !

    Most fish and seafood caught by UK fishermen is exported to the EU , so in effect they just trashed their main export market .

    A lot of the seafood has to exported live , it’s a shame these fishermen didn’t engage their brains when they voted like sheep for Brexit .

    Even worse the turkeys think the Tories will protect them, how many kicks in the teeth will it take for them to get it.
    Afternoon, Malc.
    In fairness the impression I get is that the Scottish coastal fishermen on the West Coast are much less happy about Brexit than the big trawler operators out of Peterheid etc (or Peterborough and Fraserhead in the immortal words of Mr Gove) who get all the media attention.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    CatMan said:
    I'd forgotten about the 'red tape' one; that was probably one of the first to go. Are there any left? Even 'Brexit will take the drunken smirk off of Juncker's face' seems to be clinging to life these days.
    Red tape was a red herring
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    CatMan said:
    Turkeys voting for Christmas !

    Most fish and seafood caught by UK fishermen is exported to the EU , so in effect they just trashed their main export market .

    A lot of the seafood has to exported live , it’s a shame these fishermen didn’t engage their brains when they voted like sheep for Brexit .
    Even worse the turkeys think the Tories will protect them, how many kicks in the teeth will it take for them to get it.
    Yes like the farmers . The Tories have been for years been trying to cut subsidies to them but yet they somehow think they will help them !

    Many of the fishing quotas have been sold to mainland European fishing fleets by fishermen in the UK so as they bleat about what they can currently catch they’ve sold a lot of that anyway .

    And their hero Farage has done zip to help them when he was part of the committee in the EU dealing with fisheries . Most of the time he couldn’t be bothered to turn up !

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited September 2019

    Also not sure if you do walk into a bookies and say something like that would they give reasonable odds or would they think "mug" and give crap odds?

    You'd get very crap odds, because …

    a) they assume you won't be able to calculate a fair price on such an exotic/custom bet, so can offer whatever they like
    b) in sports-betting the longer the odds, typically the more profit margin the bookie loads on it. by 1000/1 you might get 33% of true odds.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    In 1997 we found out that the minimum number of Tory seats is 165. We may be about to find out the equivalent figure for Labour
    Between 180 and 200 probably.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    CatMan said:
    Turkeys voting for Christmas !

    Most fish and seafood caught by UK fishermen is exported to the EU , so in effect they just trashed their main export market .

    A lot of the seafood has to exported live , it’s a shame these fishermen didn’t engage their brains when they voted like sheep for Brexit .
    Even worse the turkeys think the Tories will protect them, how many kicks in the teeth will it take for them to get it.
    The young... Turks? Chicks? Turkey's have cottoned onto the fact Christmas is terrible for them*, just need more of them to outnumber the Christmas fans.

    *I think it's partially to do with the younger generation not consuming as much pro Christmas propaganda.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140

    Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    Having played around with some figures in Baxter (is that the best one nowadays?), that does look right.
    Plugging in 25% for each of Con/Lab/LibDem, with 20% for Brexit produces an interesting result (Lab 70 short of overall majority, Con gain 3, LibDems on 95 and 5 Brexit MPs).
    But if Con ahead they may well have a majority.
    Those percentages are almost impossible to achieve without unrealistic percentages for the SNP and smaller parties, but going as close as I can realistically go with UK-Elect leads to a forecast of Lab 199 Con 166 LibDem 117, Brexit Party 90, SNP 53
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Interesting tweet on why Corbyn backed off (for now):
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1175324553897218050

    Tom Watson was one of El Gord's "Forces From Hell" of course...
  • Farage is telling people "a wall of global money" will flow into the UK if there's No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1175413718118805504
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    nico67 said:

    CatMan said:
    Turkeys voting for Christmas !

    Most fish and seafood caught by UK fishermen is exported to the EU , so in effect they just trashed their main export market .

    A lot of the seafood has to exported live , it’s a shame these fishermen didn’t engage their brains when they voted like sheep for Brexit .

    Even worse the turkeys think the Tories will protect them, how many kicks in the teeth will it take for them to get it.
    Afternoon, Malc.
    In fairness the impression I get is that the Scottish coastal fishermen on the West Coast are much less happy about Brexit than the big trawler operators out of Peterheid etc (or Peterborough and Fraserhead in the immortal words of Mr Gove) who get all the media attention.
    Hello Carnyx,
    Yes for sure it is really the East coast mob , most of them as you say with big operations. Though given they rely on foreign workers and Tories will give it all away at the drop of a hat for any treaty that suits down south, it is still madness.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    BigRich said:

    Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    What makes you confidant of that?

    with the SNP showing no singe of weakaning.

    the LD surging in normally safe strong remain seats

    The Brexit party support being concentrated in normail safe Leave seats

    The Con vote holding up sufficiently to come though the middle in marginals where Lab loses some to each of LD and BP.

    The possibility for a devastation is there.

    Between Corbyn and Brexit UK politics is changing.
    I certainly think Wales could be a horror show for Labour next time.

    Still time for Boris to revisit the tidal lagoons decision.....
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    I think it's pretty clear that these websites that transform national percentages to seats are utterly worthless at the moment. There's not uniform swing at the most stable and predictable of elections, and any election in the near future will not be one of those.
    You'll see the Lib Dems taking votes in both rural and metropolitan constituencies, Labour voters in Wales breaking Plaid and Brexit, Unionist remainers in Scotland having headaches, nationalist leavers having aneurysms, Bxp picking up pointless votes in the seats of leave friendly Tories, and so on. The whole thing is going to be like a Jackson Pollock.
    If someone does a poll of 10000 people with a proper regression analysis, I'll listen to them. Everything else can be dismissed as guesswork or wishful thinking.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Interesting tweet on why Corbyn backed off (for now):
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1175324553897218050

    Is it really that much of a threat?

    Blair who would attract the most attention of the lot criticising Corbyn would not be any kind of revelation, him not liking or agreeing with Corbyn is barely newsworthy and common knowledge to anyone who cares enough to pay attention.

    People who constantly criticise and attack and will continue to do so have nothing to barter and not really much to threaten.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Non-politics betting question

    I think Liverpool could potentially get to Christmas with a 100% record in the Premier League, winning all games and not dropping any points. Not saying it will happen, just think there's a chance.

    Is there a good way of putting a bet on that and what odds would you say would be fair for something like that? I was talking to someone last night who said go into a physical bookies and he thought that was a 1000/1 shot which I'd happily put the price of a pint on if someone would give odds like that, but not sure where to start. Also not sure if you do walk into a bookies and say something like that would they give reasonable odds or would they think "mug" and give crap odds?

    Any advice?

    Perhaps the easiest way would be to set up an accumulator on Liverpool wins as far ahead as you can, extended each time new odds come out.

    I think though that the CL campaign will take its toll, and of course the mighty Foxes go to Anfield in 2 weeks :smiley:
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Farage is telling people "a wall of global money" will flow into the UK if there's No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1175413718118805504

    He means Oleg Deripaska. Fuck that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Andrew said:

    Also not sure if you do walk into a bookies and say something like that would they give reasonable odds or would they think "mug" and give crap odds?

    You'd get very crap odds, because …

    a) they assume you won't be able to calculate a fair price on such an exotic/custom bet, so can offer whatever they like
    b) in sports-betting the longer the odds, typically the more profit margin the bookie loads on it. by 1000/1 you might get 33% of true odds.
    Just put on a manual bet as an accumulator before each game. As the winning streak goes on, there will be an element of "well, it has to end sometime..." factored in to the price. You can shop around for the best odds. And I can't imagine there is much of a limit to the wager you can make on individual games in the Premier League?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    AndyJS said:

    Even at its lowest base Lab probably has 200+ seats nailed on.

    In 1997 we found out that the minimum number of Tory seats is 165. We may be about to find out the equivalent figure for Labour
    Between 180 and 200 probably.
    I could live with that :-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Foxy said:

    Non-politics betting question

    I think Liverpool could potentially get to Christmas with a 100% record in the Premier League, winning all games and not dropping any points. Not saying it will happen, just think there's a chance.

    Is there a good way of putting a bet on that and what odds would you say would be fair for something like that? I was talking to someone last night who said go into a physical bookies and he thought that was a 1000/1 shot which I'd happily put the price of a pint on if someone would give odds like that, but not sure where to start. Also not sure if you do walk into a bookies and say something like that would they give reasonable odds or would they think "mug" and give crap odds?

    Any advice?

    Perhaps the easiest way would be to set up an accumulator on Liverpool wins as far ahead as you can, extended each time new odds come out.

    I think though that the CL campaign will take its toll, and of course the mighty Foxes go to Anfield in 2 weeks :smiley:
    For sure there will be a draw in there as well which would scupper it. Probably best to do 3 games, take out your stake and then just roll it till you lose and decide whether you take a portion out each time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Interesting tweet on why Corbyn backed off (for now):
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1175324553897218050

    Is it really that much of a threat?

    Blair who would attract the most attention of the lot criticising Corbyn would not be any kind of revelation, him not liking or agreeing with Corbyn is barely newsworthy and common knowledge to anyone who cares enough to pay attention.

    People who constantly criticise and attack and will continue to do so have nothing to barter and not really much to threaten.
    Blair pissed off = Badge of Honour for Corbyn......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Expecting polls tonight? Or has the 2019 budget for them already been used?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Farage is telling people "a wall of global money" will flow into the UK if there's No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1175413718118805504

    Yes clean break is the latest slogan to dupe the public !

    And by more competitive he means gutting workers rights and turning the UK into a race to the bottom low tax crap services capitalism on steroids cesspit !
  • Farage is telling people "a wall of global money" will flow into the UK if there's No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1175413718118805504

    Yes clean break is the latest slogan to dupe the public !

    And by more competitive he means gutting workers rights and turning the UK into a race to the bottom low tax crap services capitalism on steroids cesspit !

    Do you have an example of such a cesspit we could useas a benchmark?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    edited September 2019
    Just so you know, the chair of the Jewish Labour Movement is currently speaking. He doesn't think there isn't a problem.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Expecting polls tonight? Or has the 2019 budget for them already been used?

    Do we ever NOT have a YouGov on a saturday night? :D
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Farage is telling people "a wall of global money" will flow into the UK if there's No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1175413718118805504

    Yes clean break is the latest slogan to dupe the public !

    And by more competitive he means gutting workers rights and turning the UK into a race to the bottom low tax crap services capitalism on steroids cesspit !
    Do you have an example of such a cesspit we could useas a benchmark?

    New Zealand, Switzerland or Singapore seem very successful to me
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    BigRich said:

    Farage is telling people "a wall of global money" will flow into the UK if there's No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1175413718118805504

    Yes clean break is the latest slogan to dupe the public !

    And by more competitive he means gutting workers rights and turning the UK into a race to the bottom low tax crap services capitalism on steroids cesspit !
    Do you have an example of such a cesspit we could useas a benchmark?
    New Zealand, Switzerland or Singapore seem very successful to me

    Cherry picking!
    Try also El Salvador, Morocco, Syria.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:

    BigRich said:

    Farage is telling people "a wall of global money" will flow into the UK if there's No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1175413718118805504

    Yes clean break is the latest slogan to dupe the public !

    And by more competitive he means gutting workers rights and turning the UK into a race to the bottom low tax crap services capitalism on steroids cesspit !
    Do you have an example of such a cesspit we could useas a benchmark?
    New Zealand, Switzerland or Singapore seem very successful to me
    Cherry picking!
    Try also El Salvador, Morocco, Syria.

    Or if you want low corporation tax, Macedonia, Uzbekistan, Palestine.
  • Andrew said:

    Also not sure if you do walk into a bookies and say something like that would they give reasonable odds or would they think "mug" and give crap odds?

    You'd get very crap odds, because …

    a) they assume you won't be able to calculate a fair price on such an exotic/custom bet, so can offer whatever they like
    b) in sports-betting the longer the odds, typically the more profit margin the bookie loads on it. by 1000/1 you might get 33% of true odds.
    Just put on a manual bet as an accumulator before each game. As the winning streak goes on, there will be an element of "well, it has to end sometime..." factored in to the price. You can shop around for the best odds. And I can't imagine there is much of a limit to the wager you can make on individual games in the Premier League?
    How do you place a manual accumulator like that or do you just mean make a bet, then reinvest winnings into next bet etc etc until lost or Christmas?

    The thing that made me think this was possible and looking at the fixtures there isn't any that looks insurmountable.

    Of the big clubs Arsenal has already been defeated.

    Chelsea and Man are away so tricky but they're very vulnerable at the minute.
    Man City are obviously tricky but are at Anfield and without Laporte.
    Spurs, Merseyside Derby and Leicester all at Anfield too.

    If we can keep winning at Anfield and defeat Man Utd and Chelsea on the road then there's not many fixtures left.

    What would you think fair odds would be?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Abolished

  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    Noo said:

    I think it's pretty clear that these websites that transform national percentages to seats are utterly worthless at the moment. There's not uniform swing at the most stable and predictable of elections, and any election in the near future will not be one of those.
    You'll see the Lib Dems taking votes in both rural and metropolitan constituencies, Labour voters in Wales breaking Plaid and Brexit, Unionist remainers in Scotland having headaches, nationalist leavers having aneurysms, Bxp picking up pointless votes in the seats of leave friendly Tories, and so on. The whole thing is going to be like a Jackson Pollock.
    If someone does a poll of 10000 people with a proper regression analysis, I'll listen to them. Everything else can be dismissed as guesswork or wishful thinking.

    Your scepticism may be justified, but most websites and forecasters no longer use uniform swing, and some do allow for local and regional forecasting and try to take account of swings among particular types of voters. Whether they do so to the right extent, and have sufficient data available at the moment to do an accurate forecast (unlike at the time of an exit poll, for example) is another question...
This discussion has been closed.