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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the conf

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    No. The 14 days only applies to FTPA votes of no confidence, not to other votes of confidence. 9 September was the day of the second attempt at dissolution, which was just about legitimate given Corbyn's ambiguity about his stance following the first vote.

    You are wrong about the previous situation. It was clearly explained in the Lascelles letter. The PM was not automatically entitled to a dissolution. The monarch could refuse, and the letter explained the circumstances under which the monarch would refuse.

    Yes but you are making a giant leap from saying there should be no election, to that there should be a change of PM. Considering the Commons hasn't given confidence to anyone else, nor has it taken any of the options available to it, and it repeatedly rejected an election - why should the PM change?

    The PM will change if the opposition wins an election or shows they can command a majority within this Parliament - neither has happened. The opposition don't get to demand a change of PM when they can't command a majority by short-circuiting an election.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708



    It's amazing how much your life story seems to coincide with that other PB poster, SeanT ... ;)

    But he's not the same person however. Because he said so. So that's that.

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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,770
    Another "Remoaner" from the Daily Telegraph no doubt
    https://twitter.com/JeremyWarnerUK/status/1175026573801676800?s=20
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Gabs2 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Celebrating violence and encouragement of violence should surely be a universal red line. There is a disease on the British Left. What is really upsetting is that it is now spreading beyond the Labour Party to once respected outlets like the Guardian.
    I'm intrigued by the fact that this is being condemned by Guido, who are named after a terrorist.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    CatMan said:

    Another "Remoaner" from the Daily Telegraph no doubt
    https://twitter.com/JeremyWarnerUK/status/1175026573801676800?s=20

    I'm not sure what is ridiculous about meeting to discuss it?
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380



    It's amazing how much your life story seems to coincide with that other PB poster, SeanT ... ;)

    But he's not the same person however. Because he said so. So that's that.

    SeanT says exactly the same thing.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,076
    edited September 2019

    You have to admire the sheer creativeness and cunning of the government's Brexit negotiation strategy. The latest brilliant wheeze is that the people we're negotiating with aren't allowed to see our proposals. That's genius: how can they reject them if they don't know what they are?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret

    They've taken it one ingenious step further, HMG doesn't know what they are. As long as that remains the state of play they can spout Pollyannaesque bollox till the cows come home.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    You have to admire the sheer creativeness and cunning of the government's Brexit negotiation strategy. The latest brilliant wheeze is that the people we're negotiating with aren't allowed to see our proposals. That's genius: how can they reject them if they don't know what they are?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret

    They've taken it one ingenuous step further, HMG doesn't know what they are. As long as that remains the state of play they can spout Pollyannaesque bollox till the cows come home.
    "The opposition are demanding we weaken our negotiating position by deciding upon one!"
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    You have to admire the sheer creativeness and cunning of the government's Brexit negotiation strategy. The latest brilliant wheeze is that the people we're negotiating with aren't allowed to see our proposals. That's genius: how can they reject them if they don't know what they are?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret

    They've taken it one ingenuous step further, HMG doesn't know what they are. As long as that remains the state of play they can spout Pollyannaesque bollox till the cows come home.
    The cows (and much more) can only come home if all sanitary and phytosanitary conditions are met.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    philiph said:

    You have to admire the sheer creativeness and cunning of the government's Brexit negotiation strategy. The latest brilliant wheeze is that the people we're negotiating with aren't allowed to see our proposals. That's genius: how can they reject them if they don't know what they are?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret

    They've taken it one ingenuous step further, HMG doesn't know what they are. As long as that remains the state of play they can spout Pollyannaesque bollox till the cows come home.
    The cows (and much more) can only come home if all sanitary and phytosanitary conditions are met.
    :D
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483



    It's amazing how much your life story seems to coincide with that other PB poster, SeanT ... ;)

    But he's not the same person however. Because he said so. So that's that.

    Do you come from Stoke and support Port Vale?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    Noo said:

    You have to admire the sheer creativeness and cunning of the government's Brexit negotiation strategy. The latest brilliant wheeze is that the people we're negotiating with aren't allowed to see our proposals. That's genius: how can they reject them if they don't know what they are?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret

    They've taken it one ingenuous step further, HMG doesn't know what they are. As long as that remains the state of play they can spout Pollyannaesque bollox till the cows come home.
    "The opposition are demanding we weaken our negotiating position by deciding upon one!"
    HYUFD said:
    HYUFD said:
    Is it because nobody can tell whether it's Doris Johnson or Bonald Trump. And so long as it's one or the other no one cares much?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    Scott_P said:
    Finally, Lenny Henry says something funny.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    philiph said:

    You have to admire the sheer creativeness and cunning of the government's Brexit negotiation strategy. The latest brilliant wheeze is that the people we're negotiating with aren't allowed to see our proposals. That's genius: how can they reject them if they don't know what they are?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret

    They've taken it one ingenuous step further, HMG doesn't know what they are. As long as that remains the state of play they can spout Pollyannaesque bollox till the cows come home.
    The cows (and much more) can only come home if all sanitary and phytosanitary conditions are met.
    "On second thoughts I'll dance with the cows until the sanitary and phytosanitary conditions are met."
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,608



    It's amazing how much your life story seems to coincide with that other PB poster, SeanT ... ;)

    But he's not the same person however. Because he said so. So that's that.

    Parallel lives it seems...
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I wonder if people realize that accepting the WA will be the biggest can kicking exercise in history and that given we no longer believe in the level playing field we may well be in the position at the end of the transition period we could be again looking at no deal WTO rules. We will probably be in endless transition for the next seven years.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Finally, Lenny Henry says something funny.
    OOOOOOOOOOOOKAAAAAAY enough of that
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    New thread.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586



    It's amazing how much your life story seems to coincide with that other PB poster, SeanT ... ;)

    But he's not the same person however. Because he said so. So that's that.

    Success has changed him ?

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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    nichomar said:

    I wonder if people realize that accepting the WA will be the biggest can kicking exercise in history and that given we no longer believe in the level playing field we may well be in the position at the end of the transition period we could be again looking at no deal WTO rules. We will probably be in endless transition for the next seven years.

    Endless ... for the next seven years ...

    For God's sake let's bring on that IQ test as soon as possible!
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    nichomar said:



    It's amazing how much your life story seems to coincide with that other PB poster, SeanT ... ;)

    But he's not the same person however. Because he said so. So that's that.

    Do you come from Stoke and support Port Vale?
    No and yes respectively. Though the limit of my support is 'how are 'we' doing?' every few weeks.
    I'm a good local Scouser. I support Vale because I'm a glory hunter. Those other Merseyside teams are rubbish.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    nichomar said:

    I wonder if people realize that accepting the WA will be the biggest can kicking exercise in history and that given we no longer believe in the level playing field we may well be in the position at the end of the transition period we could be again looking at no deal WTO rules. We will probably be in endless transition for the next seven years.

    I suppose we could take the WA, then, let's be honest, basically forced to have a GE.
    Could be a completely different (probably will be) government in six months time.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    kinabalu said:

    Reluctant to post this but I feel I have to -

    My brother is senior management at Whipps Cross hospital. When Johnson was there on Wednesday my bro had coffee and biscuits with him and a 20 minute one on one chinwag. Said that the guy has an obvious charisma BUT he is strangely very unintimidating (unlike Brown, who he has also met) and is extremely easy to talk to. He really did feel like he could 'have a pint with him' no problem at all.

    He (my brother) is a lifelong member of the Labour party and something of an activist. He hates the Tories.

    (emoticon for "go figure")

    This is a variation on an oft-told story, that when people actually meet politicians, they are surprised how nice they seem. Notwithstanding the tales of when they're rude, of course, such as the one about Cameron putting his hand in a stewardess's face.
    I've met a few politicians too, from councillors through MPs to a First Minister, and they all seemed ok. It's just their /beliefs/ that are the problem. Because no matter how nice you are, any policy you implement is going to spoil someone else's day, or even life. It's frankly unavoidable. The only thing you can do is look like you give a shit and try to do as little damage as possible. And on that front, I'd go for a pint with Boris too. If only to keep him away from wrecking this fucking country for an hour or two.
    Yes, I have met a load of politicians through work and in the main they were pretty charming and nice people. Even Liam Fox seemed kind of alright. The only two who didn't seem like very nice people were Peter Mandelson and John Redwood. Cameron did seem arrogant though, and Johnson came over as needy, but both were pleasant to talk to. If it's a meal, the best guide is to see how they treat the serving staff. In that regard John Major was the clear winner. But it's the policies that matter, and even the lovely Major messed up the train industry.
    +1
    I never like Major's policies, but he seems like a gentleman.
    My guess for the PMs of my lifetime for how nice they would be / have been to meet:
    Major
    Blair
    May
    Cameron
    Johnson
    Brown
    Thatcher

    Pop Corbyn in at about the same level as Johnson if he becomes PM.
    Swinson can go in just above May.
    Clarke just below Blair.
    What other candidates am I missing?
    Somebody who worked at Chequers from the days of Attlee until Thatcher's time expressed the view that Wilson was the nicest person to work for.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,932
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    The idea that they is actually a valid deal in the pipeline is something I just don't get.

    The backstop is there because we have not over 18 months found a credible way of resolving all the issues with the Irish Border. There is no way Boris has completely fixed this in a month, and even the agriculture fix isn't complete.

    Hence I really don't see there being a agreed with EU Deal sans Backstop by October for Parliament to vote on..
    It is just bollox to run the clock down
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    Would the Lib Dems definitely all vote against a new deal if No deal was still a strong possibility? That would have a very reckless and therefore 'non-Lib Dem' feel to it.
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    philiph said:

    I think that is a bit unkind to call them the LibTals or LibBans. I'm not sure that Lab and LibDems are heading into the realms of extensive tactical voting, which will be good for LibDems and possibly Cons
    This current discord between Labour and the Liberal Democrats will be like manna from heaven for the Brexiters, and Cummings will be lapping it up in his game theory war-gaming headquarters. From a Remainer point of view, it's madness.
    Talibdems.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like we used to have years ago. I used to volunteer at one such in North Kensington, doing housing and criminal work.

    Why did they fall out of favour?
    They were funded by councils and got squeezed when there were budget cuts. Also as legal aid got cut it became ever harder to get payment for defence work or other work.

    Unless you have money you don't realistically have any sort of access to justice these days. It is a disgrace in a country which used to boast about the rule of law.
    What do you think local councils should have cut instead considering that there was no money left?

    I've got a few suggestions but curious what you think.
    They cut my marginal tax rate by 5%, slashed corporation tax and increased the inheritance tax threshold to £1mn so there was definitely some money left.
    Says someone who has never heard of the Laffer Curve. What matters is revenues not percentages.

    Revenues have grown year on year not fallen. Indeed you claim corporation tax has been slashed but corporation tax is bringing in record revenues despite a supposed decade of lost growth. Go figure!
    Care to inflation adjust those figures?
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