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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the conf
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the confidence of the Commons and should have quit when the Benn bill passed
Anne Twomey, who literally wrote the book on the prerogative, has written an important blog post that cuts through much of the legal machinations:
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No.
However the question is what possible alternative PM can command the confidence of the House without a general election?
@MarqueeMark or @HYUFD .....
The Telegraph front page article, that we are inching towards a deal - with no further extensions, so it becomes take it or No Deal it - is far more interesting. I mean, who could ever have predicted that as a way forward......
It's what we have to make do with in the absence of an ARSE.
Failing that, we need to get a better Queen. I would suggest Helena Bonham Carter but I'm flexible.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49727121
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49763550
Heck the prorogation plan practically looked like a dare to remove him and they decided to mess about and hope the court case made it easier for them. And they use the system as an excuse If they are this opposed to any option - and they keep saying the WA as is is the only game in town - then bloody well call off the farce of negotiations. I dont think they get a vote on it.
Failing that, we need to get a better Queen. I would suggest Helena Bonham Carter but I'm flexible.
May be rejected not has to be rejected by the Queen
The act certainly has its flaws, but abolition isn't a particularly good way to address them.
The backstop is there because we have not over 18 months found a credible way of resolving all the issues with the Irish Border. There is no way Boris has completely fixed this in a month, and even the agriculture fix isn't complete.
Hence I really don't see there being a agreed with EU Deal sans Backstop by October for Parliament to vote on..
One of the great frustrations of Brexit over the last few years has been the ability of MPs to vote against things without consequence. The FTPA has added to that lack of consequence and made our MPs more irresponsible, not less. I don't disagree with those that say it is for the politicians to make the system work but our system now bears no resemblance to what this constitutional writer is describing. I wish it did.
You can criticise Corbyn or Boris for not doing so, but nobody else really has the authority.
https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/09/19/asia/indonesia-criminal-code-reform-intl-hnk/index.html?r=https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJS9fshIRdaUYA9R5B4iA5;_ylu=X3oDMTEzZWk5ZW5kBGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDTU9VSzAxXzEEc2VjA3Nj/RV=2/RE=1568994668/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fedition.cnn.com%2f2019%2f09%2f19%2fasia%2findonesia-criminal-code-reform-intl-hnk%2findex.html/RK=2/RS=q790XJg6D8bYJLojF6wBfnMaeDk-
It will be interesting to see how wrong I am!
Polling says the public don't agree. So rather than get kicked in the goolies by the voters, they run away. Leaving Boris as PM.
@Flanner
Normally I wouldn't extrapolate from Council Elections to the GE but in the current febrile state of national politics there is a better reason for doing so than usual.
As you indicate, the Council votes are real ones, not the hypothetical responses to opinion polls. Normally such opinions are reliable enough but at the moment the respondent has to make an assumption about how Brexit will pan out. The uncertainty factor suggests the polls are likely to be less reliable than usual. Their widely varying resuts is an indication that this is the case.
I'd still be careful about overinterpeting LD council by-election success, but they are on a long successful run so whilst caution is still necessary, it is perfectly possible that the 'councils' are giving a truer picture than the national polls.
In short, I think LD seats are a buy.
Where they were turned into bug splat.
And if you want a depressing contrast, it is worth listening to Kwasi Kwarteng later on, doubling down on his nonsense about judges, coming up with more wishful thinking about the negotiations and then telling a straight out lie about the Tory inquiry - or non-inquiry - into islamophobia in the party.
"If … there had been an effort to legitimise his premiership by winning a key vote in the Commons."
Surely the usual way for a new PM to legitimise his premiership is by calling a general election? Don't the voters count anymore?
Likewise employment law advice would ensure companies followed the law more closely.
Mind you I'm sure Citizen Advice Bureaus used to offer all those items before austerity destroyed them as councils cut back their grants.
It was a badly-thought-through fudge for Clegg's convenience - it should have expired with the 2010-5 Parliament.
The fact he didn't means everything else that follows is still has fault.
However, a council by-election will, by its nature, tend to attract the most motivated and committed. So I could see the LDs doing well in these because their base is probably the most fired up at the moment.
What would be interesting is if the LD surge in these seats was accompanied by a much higher than usual turnout. That might point to something extra.
Just like we used to have years ago. I used to volunteer at one such in North Kensington, doing housing and criminal work.
However in terms of unlawful I think Pannick has squeezed every last ounce out of the argument . It’s hard to say but I think it will be a split decision and could still go either way.
It's not up to the house to decide or have a factor in who the Tory leader is.
No markets on this, I take it?
I don't think the court decision will find against Johnson. So it'll all be down to raw politics. Whether Johnson will get his deal (basically May's No 4) through parliament will be interesting. If he does Labour and friends would be very unwise to force an election
Yes, people should have access to the law - but not like this.
If we leave without a deal there's no backstop. That's the starting point. Or should be.
There's never been a need for a safety net: there's the floor.
Philip, if you can show my why the backstop isn't I'm all ears but even though you've been saying the backstop isn't required you haven't provided one shred of evidence to back up your assertion.
As with most things, there's a balance to be struck. We should allow people to own private property AND save their lives and freedom when they're ill or when their rights are threatened.
And for those with direct power over the lives of the vulnerable, NHS managers, benefits assessors etc, I would back that up by extending a sort of professional accreditation, Royal College type system to their roles.
I think Boris will get a (slightly) improved deal from the EU and will bring it to the house before Oct 31st, and parliament will vote it down.
I think the big key play is whether Boris can win the politics of the improved deal. To do this he will need to show he has the (full) support of the DUP, the ERG and the whole of the Tory party.
If he can do that and it still gets voted down I think he'll be happy, because he can then at least tell the country that a Remain parliament is blocking the will of the people.
It will send us round in circles again but will enable Boris to live beyond the 31st October.
Accordingly I'm taking a large majority in favour of justiciability and a declaration that the prorogation was unlawful with the Lords Speaker and Speaker of the House of Commons to determine when parliament reconvenes.