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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest YouGov favourability polling shows the enormous mountain that Corbyn has to scale
It was 3 years ago that YouGov began issuing leader favourability ratings a move that followed suggestions from me. I’ve long been in the leader ratings matter much more than voting intention numbers camp and the format I most like is when poll samples are asked whether they favour a particular political leader or not.
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Voting for Labour would, rather, be voting for a process because the strategy as is doesn't give any certainty of outcome.
If you were a hard Brexiter you wouldn't vote for Labour because they aren't offering that; if you were a remainer you wouldn't vote for Labour because you might end up leaving; and if you were a soft Brexiter you wouldn't vote for Labour because you might end up remaining.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/18/nhs-destroyed-boris-johnson-father-sick-child-hospital-london
A propos very little but from my interest:
Today's horse race meeting at Happy Valley was cancelled because of security concerns. It's the first meeting lost since the crisis began and given the power of the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC), the status of horse racing as an income stream and the fact they bet like heroes with race turnover that British racing can only envy, it's a serious development.
Closer to home, the closure of Hills betting shops continues apace - the shop in East Ham on the Barking Road closed after racing on Saturday and talking to a Hills Manager in a shop in the City on Saturday (and we had time to talk!) he reckoned further closures were inevitable. The other chains are holding the line for now and activity around the FOBT machines has improved since the spring but well below the pre=April levels.
Johnson has a 93% unfavourable with Lib Dem voters - hardly shocking, he won't be appealing to them. But remarkably Corbyn also has a 74% unfavourable including a 44% very unfavourable with Lib Dems. That's going to be making a mountain for Corbyn to appeal to Lib Dems who are going to view it as "a pox on both your houses".
But look at the sub-break for Brexit Party voters. 93% unfavourable [inc. 83% very unfavourable] for Corbyn and 73% favourable for Johnson.
Those sub-breaks if true - and they're well outside of any margin for error - suggests a Johnson-inspired/Corbyn-opposing squeeze of the Brexit Party is entirely plausible.
However a Corbyn-inspired/Johnson-opposing squeeze of the Lib Dems [as occurred in 2017] is looking quite unlikely.
It was also before we polarised on the subject. The evidence is that post-2016 the public has increasingly become entrenched and polarised with no centre ground on the subject.
Given the way MPs have bored the pants off everyone for the past three years and refused to implement the result I would think most people would rather not experiance another referendum for the rest of their lives at this point.
Evidence seems to be that those who want to remain really want to remain - those who want to leave really want to leave.
Suggesting we leave but remain may satisfy a few but I don't see that it really satisfies either leavers or remainers. Sometimes the centre ground is the best place to be as the population is like a bell curve so that's where most people are - but sometimes the centre ground is empty and for good reason. If you're at a binary train platform you can stand on the westbound or northbound platform - or stand on the eastbound or southbound platform. But pick a platform and go there. Don't stand on the tracks saying "this is the centre"!
Maybe we should send @Richard_Tyndall on a speaking tour of the UK to explain its benefits.
Leavers mostly have a reason they want to leave - whether it be control of laws or borders or whatever - and largely what you suggest won't do that.
Remainers mostly have a reason they want to remain - whether it be part of the "European family" or able to shape European laws or whatever - and nominally at least what you suggest won't do that.
Its a shame people have polarised, but I think they have.
Laura being ratioed by the #FBPE / #GTTO / I
I'm surprised.
I will not be happy with any Brexit outcome from here.
I would be content with soft Brexit.
I would accept 2nd ref or revoke.
I would be distraught with no deal.
As a country we cant get anywhere near a majority for a happy outcome as for many of us there are no good outcomes anymore. We should be aiming to maximise the contents and minimise the distraughts.
He has a very good point (& thanks, Philip, for noting it) - and it will be interesting to see if those figures change at all.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1174324811411132423?s=20
I absolutely support this guy's right to challenge Johnson, and his personal experience as a parent (and comic ability to point out the bleedin' obvious cameras) strengthen that challenge. But I'm glad I *also* know he's someone who outside of hospitals makes a point of publicly calling out Tory failure.
Or: if Laura tells us "an MP has voted against Boris Johnson", our understanding and interpretation of that fact is different depending on whether it's Jeremy Corbyn, Ken Clarke or Jacob Rees-Mogg.
I've got the green vote down as much much more likely to collapse in for Labour's benefit.
Better than Theresa May going from one staged managed event after another and never actually coming into cotact with "normal" members of the public.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1174327893633241088?s=20
Unfortunately, the chances of this happening are zero, since #FBPE Twitter are already screaming just because Corbyn hasn't pledged to have the EU flag surgically attached to his body forevermore. They'll insist on the policy becoming Remainy, utterly oblivious to the fact that the policy is already toxic to a lot of Labour Leave voters, and that those Labour Leave voters will be (just as in 2017) the difference between a hung parliament and a Tory landslide.
Johnson romps home in any election held soon.
Religious fanaticism is always dangerous whether your deity is a sky fairy or the NHS.
Have you people considered the possibility that this man (and others like him) might be a Labour activist because he's seen the damage that Tory policies do?
Is she really going to want to run and make the Democrat nomination process look like a complete joke after her 2016 experience ?!
QTWTAIN I suggest.
I doubt very much Johnson wants to take us out without a deal. He wants to be stopped by parliament so he can win a GE then get us out with May ver 1.01 reheated.
Sitting on the fence is the new principled.
THE ABSOLUTE BOY.
*The NHS will receive more funding this year than any other year in its history
* Maybe not Sanders, certainly Warren or Biden
Destruction may be too strong a word but the service is significantly worse, and continuing to deteriorate.
Much of politics is spin and salesmanship, a lesson than May never learned.
It’s a reason Churchill* survived disasters that Chamberlain couldn’t.
(*For the record, I am not comparing Boris to Churchill)
Maybe - but Farage and the Brexit Party would be more dangerous to him.
Fully agree that this PMs greatest (only?) strength is selling an idea and that was Mays greatest weakness.
This has b*** all to do with Labour or the Conservatives, however. It is because the previous GP partnership collapsed in acrimony and the new lot who were awarded the contract are miles better. No doubt the deterioration you've seen is equally useless in drawing any national conclusions.
Even crazier if the EU have offered a deal. With no extension permitted.