The Lib Dems are starting to look like the real deal. They remind Labour voters what Labour used to look like in the good old days of Blair and they remind Tory voters what they looked like when they were civilised. Could be a real break through if they can buy some time and get the celebs on board.
"the good old days of Blair"
err didnt you used to go on demos saying the man was a Tory bastard ?
Mistaken identity. My favourite PM by a distance. Had it not been for Iraq (which I demonstrated against-maybe this is what you're referring to?) he would have gone down as one of our greatest PMs ever.
FOM between countries of similar wealth and appeal for both sides isn’t a problem. British people would like to live in Australia, the same can’t generally be said for Eastern Europe
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Good point . I’m a staunch Remainer and think it’s undemocratic. The Lib Dems never needed to do this . The public know they already want to stop Brexit, the Lib Dems could have just said you can’t trust Corbyn on Brexit and made that their message .
Perhaps I’m wrong , we’ll see when new polling comes out.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
Lab would have to make clear their position on freedom of movement at an early stage in all this "permanent SM membership" and I'm not sure that would be an election-winning approach.
That is the big one.
Soft Brexit means FoM stays but I think that harsh (to many) truth will be finessed in a GE campaign.
I predict that those wanting a Norway (etc) deal - or EU re-entry post Brexit - will at some point move in the direction of all the FoM brakes that we keep being told we could have had since the start. Stuff like changing the benefit system to "keep out the scroungers" etc. And whether or not it'll make much difference, that'll probably be enough for a fair chunk of the "just get on with it" crowd.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
Polly Toynbee has come out fiercely against Swinson’s Revoke, and claims it will benefit Labour (as the ‘sensible’ Remain party).
She’s right. The Lib Dems had an historic chance to seize Guardian-reading Remainerdom from Labour, probably forever. But they’ve blown it. A remarkable and entirely unforced error.
So Truss - and presumably therefore Johnson - don't believe in points-based immigration. And presumably she's saying Australia's conceding that freedom of movement's preferable.
Yet for years they've been telling us the current Australian system will sort out all our migration problems?
More lies from Johnson? Or just another example of Johnsonian inability to think?
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
With a capital IF, If Boris gets a deal that the DUP can support and that gives a smooth transition, with a political declaration that can be amended by whoever wins the next election, isn’t it going to be a bit tricky for the Labour holdouts to continue voting against Brexit?
Might the markets have got this completely wrong and we’re actually only weeks away from an MV4 sailing through the commons?
A good chance for the less extreme of the Tory 21 to vote in favour and get the whip back too.
It's gone beyond that. The package is now not just a deal but a deal with Johnson Rasputin and their Cabinet. That is pretty indigestible which is why Swinson's seemingly undemocratic pledge is going down so well. Remainers don't want Johnson and co at any price.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
All together now. The wealthy Leavers were perfectly fine with working-class people being crowded out by immigration. They just wanted it to be immigrants from different countries.
On the latest Yougov the Tories have a lead of 9% over Labour suggesting a swing of 3.5% from 2017 to the Tories and 31 Tory gains from Labour.
Based on say 10 losses to the SNP the Tories only need to keep losses to the LDs to 13 or lower to gain the 8 seats net they need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority
I just looked up the Conservative-held Lib Dem target seats on that very site. Number 13, the tipping point by your maths, is Brecon & Radnorshire. There's no way the Lib Dems will take that off the Conservatives. Boris is safe.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
That's certainly a view. But I was intrigued by one rationale I saw the other day. Common wisdom here on PB and elsewhere is that the Revoke policy is to distinguish the Lib Dems from Labour at the next election. But this argument suggests it's to distinguish the Lib Dems from the Conservatives in the future:
"Swinson doesn't plan on winning the next election - this is purely optics so that, years from now, the LibDems will be remembered as the ones who tried to prevent the inevitable economic crash which followed. Combined with right-wing economic policy freed from the shackles of religious zealotry, this has a good chance of making the LibDems the new defacto replacement for the dying Tory party. It's not exactly 4D chess, but it's a longer game than the one Boris is playing."
On the latest Yougov the Tories have a lead of 9% over Labour suggesting a swing of 3.5% from 2017 to the Tories and 31 Tory gains from Labour.
Based on say 10 losses to the SNP the Tories only need to keep losses to the LDs to 13 or lower to gain the 8 seats net they need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority
I just looked up the Conservative-held Lib Dem target seats on that very site. Number 13, the tipping point by your maths, is Brecon & Radnorshire. There's no way the Lib Dems will take that off the Conservatives. Boris is safe.
...oh.
I think they did so on August 1st in the by-election
On the latest Yougov the Tories have a lead of 9% over Labour suggesting a swing of 3.5% from 2017 to the Tories and 31 Tory gains from Labour.
Based on say 10 losses to the SNP the Tories only need to keep losses to the LDs to 13 or lower to gain the 8 seats net they need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority
I just looked up the Conservative-held Lib Dem target seats on that very site. Number 13, the tipping point by your maths, is Brecon & Radnorshire. There's no way the Lib Dems will take that off the Conservatives. Boris is safe.
...oh.
I think they did so on August 1st in the by-election
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
That's certainly a view. But I was intrigued by one rationale I saw the other day. Common wisdom here on PB and elsewhere is that the Revoke policy is to distinguish the Lib Dems from Labour at the next election. But this argument suggests it's to distinguish the Lib Dems from the Conservatives in the future:
"Swinson doesn't plan on winning the next election - this is purely optics so that, years from now, the LibDems will be remembered as the ones who tried to prevent the inevitable economic crash which followed. Combined with right-wing economic policy freed from the shackles of religious zealotry, this has a good chance of making the LibDems the new defacto replacement for the dying Tory party. It's not exactly 4D chess, but it's a longer game than the one Boris is playing."
so are the LDs replacing Labour or the Tories ?
I cant see revoke being a big vote winner for them on the political Right.
Nice to see Corbyn proving he is unelectable..Given all problems Geeece has had to deal with it seens remarkably quiet bar a lot more graffiti than i recall from past visits.
It means that Greece has settled down after its nightmare or seems to have done so.. meanwhile reading Dan Hodges tweet and looking at leader ratings. Corbyn is just unelectsble.
Where are you in Greece? The islands? Most of the islands (those unaffected by refugees) are doing OK, because tourism.
This is not the case everywhere. I recently did an epic, 3 week road trip around the mainland. From Thessaloniki to Zagoriou, down to Preveza, Missolonghi and Corinth. Then far into the Peloponnese. It was Deep Greece. Profound Greece.
The economic suffering is intense. These are the parts of Greece that still have 25% unemployment. I’ve traveled all over the world and I’ve never seen such obvious hardship and trauma outside of war zones. Which makes sense, as Greece’s economy has contracted by 40%. The kind of crash you only see in a war.
The pretty little lakeside city of Yanina, in Epirus, was especially striking. Entire neighbourhoods where every single business has been shuttered. And now they are left to rot.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
If it involved freedom of movemen TO Australia, I would strongly support it. But I suspect it will involve freedom of movement FROM Australia, hence my rather hysterical and totally unsurprised horse laughter...
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
That's certainly a view. But I was intrigued by one rationale I saw the other day. Common wisdom here on PB and elsewhere is that the Revoke policy is to distinguish the Lib Dems from Labour at the next election. But this argument suggests it's to distinguish the Lib Dems from the Conservatives in the future:
"Swinson doesn't plan on winning the next election - this is purely optics so that, years from now, the LibDems will be remembered as the ones who tried to prevent the inevitable economic crash which followed. Combined with right-wing economic policy freed from the shackles of religious zealotry, this has a good chance of making the LibDems the new defacto replacement for the dying Tory party. It's not exactly 4D chess, but it's a longer game than the one Boris is playing."
That’s such a ridiculous take, it’s reminded me I have better things to do than faff about on here, reading nonsense. So, thankyou.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Verhofsatdt likes empires. Perhaps they could join.
All together now. The wealthy Leavers were perfectly fine with working-class people being crowded out by immigration. They just wanted it to be immigrants from different countries.
FOM would surely be a better policy if there were more or less equal numbers from each country who wanted to live in the other?
On the latest Yougov the Tories have a lead of 9% over Labour suggesting a swing of 3.5% from 2017 to the Tories and 31 Tory gains from Labour.
Based on say 10 losses to the SNP the Tories only need to keep losses to the LDs to 13 or lower to gain the 8 seats net they need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority
I just looked up the Conservative-held Lib Dem target seats on that very site. Number 13, the tipping point by your maths, is Brecon & Radnorshire. There's no way the Lib Dems will take that off the Conservatives. Boris is safe.
...oh.
I think they did so on August 1st in the by-election
The Tories probably won't let a convict run next time.
This may be a pattern where the revoke pledge plays well with inner city ultra remain voters and badly with swing shire voters which leads to LDs doing better against Labour than tories and actually leading to more Con seats in the process.. .
My Cotswold Tory neighbours are mostly split between those so angry with Johnson's destruction of real Conservatism they'd now vote for an LD come what may and those even happier to vote for an LD promoting Revoke. We may have peculiarly inner city-like neighbours. But a fixation with avoiding barriers with our major trading partners isn't about living in Islington: it's about having a real stake in multinational businesses and organisations. Which is the basis of the entire economy in my part of the Cotswolds - and why our Tories are far more committed to remain than our socialists.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
That's certainly a view. But I was intrigued by one rationale I saw the other day. Common wisdom here on PB and elsewhere is that the Revoke policy is to distinguish the Lib Dems from Labour at the next election. But this argument suggests it's to distinguish the Lib Dems from the Conservatives in the future:
"Swinson doesn't plan on winning the next election - this is purely optics so that, years from now, the LibDems will be remembered as the ones who tried to prevent the inevitable economic crash which followed. Combined with right-wing economic policy freed from the shackles of religious zealotry, this has a good chance of making the LibDems the new defacto replacement for the dying Tory party. It's not exactly 4D chess, but it's a longer game than the one Boris is playing."
That’s such a ridiculous take, it’s reminded me I have better things to do than faff about on here, reading nonsense. So, thankyou.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
If it involved freedom of movemen TO Australia, I would strongly support it. But I suspect it will involve freedom of movement FROM Australia, hence my rather hysterical and totally unsurprised horse laughter...
I doubt swapping freedom of movement with a population of 446 million with one one twentieth of its size would be too controversial
given you havent seen anything that has been put forward and arent taking part in the conversations Ill leave you to reflect on state of your insider knowledge
Have to say Alan, given the track record of these donkeys, they will be thinking if they just move a few commas around , due to their importance the EU will just change positions. The Emperor really has no clothes and is surrounded by balloons of his own ilk.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
On the latest Yougov the Tories have a lead of 9% over Labour suggesting a swing of 3.5% from 2017 to the Tories and 31 Tory gains from Labour.
Based on say 10 losses to the SNP the Tories only need to keep losses to the LDs to 13 or lower to gain the 8 seats net they need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority
I just looked up the Conservative-held Lib Dem target seats on that very site. Number 13, the tipping point by your maths, is Brecon & Radnorshire. There's no way the Lib Dems will take that off the Conservatives. Boris is safe.
...oh.
I think they did so on August 1st in the by-election
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
Polly Toynbee has come out fiercely against Swinson’s Revoke, and claims it will benefit Labour (as the ‘sensible’ Remain party).
She’s right. The Lib Dems had an historic chance to seize Guardian-reading Remainerdom from Labour, probably forever. But they’ve blown it. A remarkable and entirely unforced error.
A sensible Remain Party isn't led by Corbyn who is 1. Almost certainly a Leaver 2. Went AWOL during the Referendum campaign 3. Can only be called a Remainer because he wants to take us back to 1970
Osbornes wheezes are total crap it changes nothing much on the supply side. Building more houses would, its basic demand and supply.
There are 24 million dwellings in the UK, whether we build an addional 0.5 million or 1 million over the next 5 years doesnt actually make that much difference to the level of supply, although its obviously helpful to do more. The bigger short term drivers are interest rates, govt subsidies and the widely assumed perception that the govt will always bail out homeowners, and therefore prices cannot fall.
Yes, current building is 1% of housing stock, so not an obvious short term answer to supply issues.
Demographic changes are also making a difference, with single occuparion, and under occupation of family homes, as well as the rise of multiple home ownership all soaking up increased supply.
If a house lasts 100 years on average, building at 1% of the extant housing supply is bare replacement. If the population is increasing (which it is, at approximately 0.6% per year) and household sizes have been decreasing (which they have), this leads to automatic increased supply pressure.
Therefore the break-even rate is c. 1.6% of existing house supply. If we build at the rate of replacement plus household increase, pressure stabilises (at today's existing high pressure). If below, it increases further; if above, it starts to decrease.
On the latest Yougov the Tories have a lead of 9% over Labour suggesting a swing of 3.5% from 2017 to the Tories and 31 Tory gains from Labour.
Based on say 10 losses to the SNP the Tories only need to keep losses to the LDs to 13 or lower to gain the 8 seats net they need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority
I just looked up the Conservative-held Lib Dem target seats on that very site. Number 13, the tipping point by your maths, is Brecon & Radnorshire. There's no way the Lib Dems will take that off the Conservatives. Boris is safe.
...oh.
The Liberals may have a habit of doing well in by-elections, but the Conservatives also have a habit at GEs of winning back seats they lost to them. Add in the very narrow margin of the win, the scandal surrounding the Conservative candidate and the questionmark over a future Remain pact. You should not assume that the Liberals will hang on. They may get 13 net gains but it won't be a walk in the park.
On the question of a Remain pact, do you think that Plaid will still stand down in Brecon when the Liberals run a candidate against them in marginal Ceredigion? I don't. And here are Caroline Lucas's scathing comments about the Liberals new undemocratic "Revoke" policy, in the midst of which she bemoans the lack of a commitment from other parties to reciprocal arrangements with the Greens:
"Asked whether it made it harder to form a Remain election pact with the Lib Dems - which would see the parties agree not to compete for particular seats - she demanded a greater commitment from her closest political rivals. Ms Lucas told Brand the Lib Dems and Labour both needed to show a genuine intent "to help some Green Party voices to get into Parliament" after she felt let down by her party's sacrifices in the 2017 election."
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
You're right. It certainly is not confusing. It is idiotic.
1) The EU won't need to give diddly squat to the Labour negotiators. Why would they as the latter would ask for something particularly unpalatable to the EU and the EU guys would wink at them and say, for the record, "reluctantly no".
2) How happy would you be as a Labour Leave voter to know that your team is going in to bat but wants to obliterate their stumps as soon as they take up position at the crease?
3) How happy would you be as a Labour Remain voter to know that your party is cocking around with the whole thing? If they want to remain then just say they want to remain.
1. The Deal will be the WA plus the PD amended for permanent CU and SM membership. Norway plus. The EU will be happy with that. We already know this. And they will be happy with the Ref formulation too. Either outcome, Remain or a very soft Brexit, works for them...
That's not how I understand what's been said.
A permanent CU, perhaps ('a', not 'the', of course), but the Single Market proposal wasn't membership , but something vague about being as closely aligned as possible.
And, of course, no clarity on FoM.
So not wildly different from May's deal, and obviously to be agreed.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
If it involved freedom of movemen TO Australia, I would strongly support it. But I suspect it will involve freedom of movement FROM Australia, hence my rather hysterical and totally unsurprised horse laughter...
I doubt swapping freedom of movement with a population of 446 million with one one twentieth of its size would be too controversial
Do it for one do it for all India Pakistan, China shouldn’t be a problem Russia?
On the latest Yougov the Tories have a lead of 9% over Labour suggesting a swing of 3.5% from 2017 to the Tories and 31 Tory gains from Labour.
Based on say 10 losses to the SNP the Tories only need to keep losses to the LDs to 13 or lower to gain the 8 seats net they need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority
I just looked up the Conservative-held Lib Dem target seats on that very site. Number 13, the tipping point by your maths, is Brecon & Radnorshire. There's no way the Lib Dems will take that off the Conservatives. Boris is safe.
...oh.
I think they did so on August 1st in the by-election
Tories will win it back, no bother. Only a 1400 majority with 3300 votes going to the Brexit Party. I was surprised at the time at the closeness of the result given the circumstances.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
Polly Toynbee has come out fiercely against Swinson’s Revoke, and claims it will benefit Labour (as the ‘sensible’ Remain party).
She’s right. The Lib Dems had an historic chance to seize Guardian-reading Remainerdom from Labour, probably forever. But they’ve blown it. A remarkable and entirely unforced error.
As long as it splits the Remain vote enough to allow Con to win who cares!
OT, if the odds of an outright Conservative majority were 40% including the 21 wrecker Remainers such as Hammond and Stewart, and 29% without them, then the chances of Johnson of securing a working parliamentary majority after the GE with other parties to take us out of the EU seem higher under the latter scenario than the former.
Allowing for the DUP and the possibility (or not) of some Brexit Party MPs, that 29% translates into a higher figure.
Nice to see Corbyn proving he is unelectable..Given all problems Geeece has had to deal with it seens remarkably quiet bar a lot more graffiti than i recall from past visits.
It means that Greece has settled down after its nightmare or seems to have done so.. meanwhile reading Dan Hodges tweet and looking at leader ratings. Corbyn is just unelectsble.
Where are you in Greece? The islands? Most of the islands (those unaffected by refugees) are doing OK, because tourism.
This is not the case everywhere. I recently did an epic, 3 week road trip around the mainland. From Thessaloniki to Zagoriou, down to Preveza, Missolonghi and Corinth. Then far into the Peloponnese. It was Deep Greece. Profound Greece.
The economic suffering is intense. These are the parts of Greece that still have 25% unemployment. I’ve traveled all over the world and I’ve never seen such obvious hardship and trauma outside of war zones. Which makes sense, as Greece’s economy has contracted by 40%. The kind of crash you only see in a war.
The pretty little lakeside city of Yanina, in Epirus, was especially striking. Entire neighbourhoods where every single business has been shuttered. And now they are left to rot.
Was that for a GQ photoshoot?
It's heartening that an alcoholic fiftysomething can find highly paid international work as a model.
This may be a pattern where the revoke pledge plays well with inner city ultra remain voters and badly with swing shire voters which leads to LDs doing better against Labour than tories and actually leading to more Con seats in the process.. .
My Cotswold Tory neighbours are mostly split between those so angry with Johnson's destruction of real Conservatism they'd now vote for an LD come what may and those even happier to vote for an LD promoting Revoke. We may have peculiarly inner city-like neighbours. But a fixation with avoiding barriers with our major trading partners isn't about living in Islington: it's about having a real stake in multinational businesses and organisations. Which is the basis of the entire economy in my part of the Cotswolds - and why our Tories are far more committed to remain than our socialists.
Same dynamic in the Guildford / Woking area as well. Think Surrey might see some surprises next time - especially as, historically, a hat stand could have been elected with a blue rosette in most cases. No deal will really test / push this dynamic further, whilst a deal probably resolves it.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
Polly Toynbee has come out fiercely against Swinson’s Revoke, and claims it will benefit Labour (as the ‘sensible’ Remain party).
She’s right. The Lib Dems had an historic chance to seize Guardian-reading Remainerdom from Labour, probably forever. But they’ve blown it. A remarkable and entirely unforced error.
A sensible Remain Party isn't led by Corbyn who is 1. Almost certainly a Leaver 2. Went AWOL during the Referendum campaign 3. Can only be called a Remainer because he wants to take us back to 1970
Yes but at least he is giving people a choice in a referendum remain v a deal. Unlike straight revoke which would be undemocratic. Also Swinson would never accept the same for the SNP if they won a Scottish election with a majority then declared Independence. She is a hypocrite of the first order.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Given HMG is struggling to hold together the UK, that seems a bit... fanciful.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
Polly Toynbee has come out fiercely against Swinson’s Revoke, and claims it will benefit Labour (as the ‘sensible’ Remain party).
She’s right. The Lib Dems had an historic chance to seize Guardian-reading Remainerdom from Labour, probably forever. But they’ve blown it. A remarkable and entirely unforced error.
I am not sure about that. The more significant consequence I think is that it could alienate some Remainer Conservatives who are torn between doing the decent thing and honouring the 2016 vote and putting it to another referendum vote. They wouldn't vote for Corbyn with a bargepole, but now they may not vote for the Libs either.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
If it involved freedom of movemen TO Australia, I would strongly support it. But I suspect it will involve freedom of movement FROM Australia, hence my rather hysterical and totally unsurprised horse laughter...
I doubt swapping freedom of movement with a population of 446 million with one one twentieth of its size would be too controversial
Do it for one do it for all India Pakistan, China shouldn’t be a problem Russia?
Nice to see Corbyn proving he is unelectable..Given all problems Geeece has had to deal with it seens remarkably quiet bar a lot more graffiti than i recall from past visits.
It means that Greece has settled down after its nightmare or seems to have done so.. meanwhile reading Dan Hodges tweet and looking at leader ratings. Corbyn is just unelectsble.
Where are you in Greece? The islands? Most of the islands (those unaffected by refugees) are doing OK, because tourism.
This is not the case everywhere. I recently did an epic, 3 week road trip around the mainland. From Thessaloniki to Zagoriou, down to Preveza, Missolonghi and Corinth. Then far into the Peloponnese. It was Deep Greece. Profound Greece.
The economic suffering is intense. These are the parts of Greece that still have 25% unemployment. I’ve traveled all over the world and I’ve never seen such obvious hardship and trauma outside of war zones. Which makes sense, as Greece’s economy has contracted by 40%. The kind of crash you only see in a war.
The pretty little lakeside city of Yanina, in Epirus, was especially striking. Entire neighbourhoods where every single business has been shuttered. And now they are left to rot.
Was that for a GQ photoshoot?
It's heartening that an alcoholic fiftysomething can find highly paid international work as a model.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Given HMG is struggling to hold together the UK, that seems a bit... fanciful.
Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
If it involved freedom of movemen TO Australia, I would strongly support it. But I suspect it will involve freedom of movement FROM Australia, hence my rather hysterical and totally unsurprised horse laughter...
I doubt swapping freedom of movement with a population of 446 million with one one twentieth of its size would be too controversial
Do it for one do it for all India Pakistan, China shouldn’t be a problem Russia?
Why?
Other countries would try it on if it was seen to be achievable.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Never go full Dan Hannan.
This would be only the use of a no-deal Brexit - to finally cure imperial delusions, as other nations have had to go through.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Given HMG is struggling to hold together the UK, that seems a bit... fanciful.
Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?
That's a really good point Nick and anecdotally I know a few people where the revoke pledge hasn't played too well and they are all classic targets for LD tactical voting..
Interestingly my brother is the one person I know it has won round.. He is now committed to voting LD when he has traditionally been a Labour supporter... Key thing here is he lives in Kensington so his vote shift is likely to elect a Tory.. This may be a pattern where the revoke pledge plays well with inner city ultra remain voters and badly with swing shire voters which leads to LDs doing better against Labour than tories and actually leading to more Con seats in the process..
Just my thoughts though
Yes, that's my concern from the non-Tory position - I think the Swinson strategy will help the LibDems in vote share but help the Tories by making anti-Tory tactical voting more difficult.
I'm encouraged, though, that Corbyn has come out fighting for the "Vote Labour for a final choice" policy. One can have popular policies, unpopular policies, and policies that one apologetically mentions and doesn't campaign for. The last is the worst by a large margin.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Given HMG is struggling to hold together the UK, that seems a bit... fanciful.
Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?
With whom might we conduct such a transaction ?
Illuminati? Lizard People? You know, the People Who Really Run Things.....
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Given HMG is struggling to hold together the UK, that seems a bit... fanciful.
Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?
With whom might we conduct such a transaction ?
Illuminati? Lizard People? You know, the People Who Really Run Things.....
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Never go full Dan Hannan.
This would be only the use of a no-deal Brexit - to finally cure imperial delusions, as other nations have had to go through.
Yes, I think the nearest comparator in the modern era to the Brexit crisis is the French crisis over Algeria in 1958-60.
That's a really good point Nick and anecdotally I know a few people where the revoke pledge hasn't played too well and they are all classic targets for LD tactical voting..
Interestingly my brother is the one person I know it has won round.. He is now committed to voting LD when he has traditionally been a Labour supporter... Key thing here is he lives in Kensington so his vote shift is likely to elect a Tory.. This may be a pattern where the revoke pledge plays well with inner city ultra remain voters and badly with swing shire voters which leads to LDs doing better against Labour than tories and actually leading to more Con seats in the process..
Just my thoughts though
Yes, that's my concern from the non-Tory position - I think the Swinson strategy will help the LibDems in vote share but help the Tories by making anti-Tory tactical voting more difficult.
I'm encouraged, though, that Corbyn has come out fighting for the "Vote Labour for a final choice" policy. One can have popular policies, unpopular policies, and policies that one apologetically mentions and doesn't campaign for. The last is the worst by a large margin.
Nice to see Corbyn proving he is unelectable..Given all problems Geeece has had to deal with it seens remarkably quiet bar a lot more graffiti than i recall from past visits.
It means that Greece has settled down after its nightmare or seems to have done so.. meanwhile reading Dan Hodges tweet and looking at leader ratings. Corbyn is just unelectsble.
Where are you in Greece? The islands? Most of the islands (those unaffected by refugees) are doing OK, because tourism.
This is not the case everywhere. I recently did an epic, 3 week road trip around the mainland. From Thessaloniki to Zagoriou, down to Preveza, Missolonghi and Corinth. Then far into the Peloponnese. It was Deep Greece. Profound Greece.
The economic suffering is intense. These are the parts of Greece that still have 25% unemployment. I’ve traveled all over the world and I’ve never seen such obvious hardship and trauma outside of war zones. Which makes sense, as Greece’s economy has contracted by 40%. The kind of crash you only see in a war.
The pretty little lakeside city of Yanina, in Epirus, was especially striking. Entire neighbourhoods where every single business has been shuttered. And now they are left to rot.
Parts of central Athens are starting to recover too, but not the outskirts. North-western outskirts of the city, and northwestern parts of the country where you went too, are still in a bad state.
This includes parts of Piraeus. In August while I was there, there was exactly the same, sadly friendly homeless man, with his dog, music, and palliness with the coastguard , at the same departing kiosk for the boats, at the same time of day, as last year ; Homeless non-immigrants where unheard of ten years ago in the country. The country is starting to recover, but the signs are still there.
That's a really good point Nick and anecdotally I know a few people where the revoke pledge hasn't played too well and they are all classic targets for LD tactical voting..
Interestingly my brother is the one person I know it has won round.. He is now committed to voting LD when he has traditionally been a Labour supporter... Key thing here is he lives in Kensington so his vote shift is likely to elect a Tory.. This may be a pattern where the revoke pledge plays well with inner city ultra remain voters and badly with swing shire voters which leads to LDs doing better against Labour than tories and actually leading to more Con seats in the process..
Just my thoughts though
Yes, that's my concern from the non-Tory position - I think the Swinson strategy will help the LibDems in vote share but help the Tories by making anti-Tory tactical voting more difficult.
I'm encouraged, though, that Corbyn has come out fighting for the "Vote Labour for a final choice" policy. One can have popular policies, unpopular policies, and policies that one apologetically mentions and doesn't campaign for. The last is the worst by a large margin.
You mean of the type that La Thornberry embodies?
'Vote Labour for a final choice' is a good line if it wasn't that Corbyn is known to be a Leaver. Why would anyone wanting to either Remain or get as close as possible vote Labour on that basis? It is the original pig in a poke.
That's a really good point Nick and anecdotally I know a few people where the revoke pledge hasn't played too well and they are all classic targets for LD tactical voting..
Interestingly my brother is the one person I know it has won round.. He is now committed to voting LD when he has traditionally been a Labour supporter... Key thing here is he lives in Kensington so his vote shift is likely to elect a Tory.. This may be a pattern where the revoke pledge plays well with inner city ultra remain voters and badly with swing shire voters which leads to LDs doing better against Labour than tories and actually leading to more Con seats in the process..
Just my thoughts though
Yes, that's my concern from the non-Tory position - I think the Swinson strategy will help the LibDems in vote share but help the Tories by making anti-Tory tactical voting more difficult.
I'm encouraged, though, that Corbyn has come out fighting for the "Vote Labour for a final choice" policy. One can have popular policies, unpopular policies, and policies that one apologetically mentions and doesn't campaign for. The last is the worst by a large margin.
Corbyn is really not very good at communicating this policy. He struggles when he's away from his home turf.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Never go full Dan Hannan.
This would be only the use of a no-deal Brexit - to finally cure imperial delusions, as other nations have had to go through.
Yes, I think the nearest comparator in the modern era to the Brexit crisis is the French crisis over Algeria in 1958-60.
How? It is not though the Army is about to launch a coup or there is significant bloodshed.
Kill Brexit Without a Referendum is a masterstroke.
There were those on here who chided the LibDems over Bollox to Brexit, but it turned out to be a brilliant PR coup.
A lot of people would like clarity on Brexit. Referendums aren't particularly democratic because a) they present untested choices which in this case was simplistic, binary and pre-emptive and b) there's little or no recourse so if people change their minds with changing circumstances, they're stuffed.
I hope it's the last time a referendum is ever held in England and Wales.
General Elections are the proper form of expressing democracy, however imperfect. It's really very simple. If you don't want to cancel Brexit don't vote LibDem. If they win, you know very clearly what will happen on Day 1.
Kudos.
It's a niche vote strategy and it may well help push up their share from middle-class Tory voters like Nigel - it's certainly attracted attention, which is half the battle. But she's also deterring some Labour tactical voters - anecdotally I know three dfferent Labour voters who were considering voting LibDem as they did in the locals and Euros who now don't intend to, because they feel Swinson is too anti-Labour as well as too undemocratic on Brexit - and this is Surrey, the sort of area where the LibDems really need tactical support.
I don't think much of the LibDems or their "revoke without referendum" nonsense, but personally I would tactically vote for them if I was in a Con/LD marginal. Then again, I was in the minority of Labour supporters who probably would've done that in 2017, too (don't think I could've stomached it in 2015 with Clegg still at the helm).
Increasingly though, I think there's no way of Labour doing well in an election before Brexit is 'resolved', no matter what their stance is.
The Liberals may have a habit of doing well in by-elections, but the Conservatives also have a habit at GEs of winning back seats they lost to them. Add in the very narrow margin of the win, the scandal surrounding the Conservative candidate and the questionmark over a future Remain pact. You should not assume that the Liberals will hang on. They may get 13 net gains but it won't be a walk in the park.
On the question of a Remain pact, do you think that Plaid will still stand down in Brecon when the Liberals run a candidate against them in marginal Ceredigion? I don't.
I do, because every single comment about a Plaid/Lib Dem pact, from both sides, has said "of course, we'll still both fight Ceredigion". And Plaid has a lot more to gain from a pact than the Lib Dems. Ceredigion and Brecon aside, only one of the Lib Dems' top 80 target seats is in Wales. In other words, the upside of a pact for the Lib Dems is one seat, Montgomeryshire.
And here are Caroline Lucas's scathing comments about the Liberals new undemocratic "Revoke" policy, in the midst of which she bemoans the lack of a commitment from other parties to reciprocal arrangements with the Greens:
"Asked whether it made it harder to form a Remain election pact with the Lib Dems - which would see the parties agree not to compete for particular seats - she demanded a greater commitment from her closest political rivals. Ms Lucas told Brand the Lib Dems and Labour both needed to show a genuine intent "to help some Green Party voices to get into Parliament" after she felt let down by her party's sacrifices in the 2017 election."
Which is fine, and I would agree, except where is that second Green Party seat going to be? The only two plausible candidates are the Isle of Wight and Sheffield Central, which are 38k Conservative/13k Green, and 33k Labour/4k Green, respectively. To call it a stretch is putting it politely. I do expect the Lib Dems to stand down in Sheffield Central (IoW less likely but possible), but it's a good-faith gesture rather than actually achieving anything.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Never go full Dan Hannan.
This would be only the use of a no-deal Brexit - to finally cure imperial delusions, as other nations have had to go through.
Yes, I think the nearest comparator in the modern era to the Brexit crisis is the French crisis over Algeria in 1958-60.
How? It is not though the Army is about to launch a coup or there is significant bloodshed.
Eadie, for the government, is struggling. In answer to the question "What if the government prorogued for a long period?" he answered "We shouldn't judge the principles [which he is proposing] against such extreme examples". Yet Cummings is rumoured to be threatening to prorogue parliament again when they return on 14 October. I think the government may lose this - certainly the argument on competence of the Court.
My view still is that Court will rule it does have competence in cases like this but will not rule this particular prorogation illegal (by a narrow majority 6/5) and warn off the government from stretching any further.
Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?
I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
That's a really good point Nick and anecdotally I know a few people where the revoke pledge hasn't played too well and they are all classic targets for LD tactical voting..
Interestingly my brother is the one person I know it has won round.. He is now committed to voting LD when he has traditionally been a Labour supporter... Key thing here is he lives in Kensington so his vote shift is likely to elect a Tory.. This may be a pattern where the revoke pledge plays well with inner city ultra remain voters and badly with swing shire voters which leads to LDs doing better against Labour than tories and actually leading to more Con seats in the process..
Just my thoughts though
Yes, that's my concern from the non-Tory position - I think the Swinson strategy will help the LibDems in vote share but help the Tories by making anti-Tory tactical voting more difficult.
I'm encouraged, though, that Corbyn has come out fighting for the "Vote Labour for a final choice" policy. One can have popular policies, unpopular policies, and policies that one apologetically mentions and doesn't campaign for. The last is the worst by a large margin.
You mean of the type that La Thornberry embodies?
'Vote Labour for a final choice' is a good line if it wasn't that Corbyn is known to be a Leaver. Why would anyone wanting to either Remain or get as close as possible vote Labour on that basis? It is the original pig in a poke.
Vote Labour for a Final Solution perhaps more apposite.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Never go full Dan Hannan.
This would be only the use of a no-deal Brexit - to finally cure imperial delusions, as other nations have had to go through.
Looks good for Swinson. When I did my one and only PPB for Paddy Ashdown Jeremy Bullmore who wrote the script told me that though the tite was 'Maggie's Broken Britain' that was very secondary to getting Paddy's name known to the public. So don't be surprised if this upcoming campaign plays heavily on the leader and her name. Looking at the numbers of 'don't knows' it would make sense.
I went to a reception in Whitehall last night, launching a festival of Korean music. You’d expect it to be Remainer central... and it was.
I got into a vigorous but agreeable debate with a nice Lib Dem. A music mogul. We talked about Swinson’s Revoke policy and he gamely tried to defend it, at first, but eventually he admitted it was pretty shocking, however he said it was still tolerable ‘because we will never get a majority’. A line I have seen used on here.
If a party’s flagship policy is being sold this way - ‘yes it’s terrible but don’t worry we will never win, so it will never be enacted’ - then I suggest the policy is a problem. Not an asset.
Anecdotes like this are hardly a guide to to public opinion.
I agree. And so do all the people I met in the pub last night.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Never go full Dan Hannan.
This would be only the use of a no-deal Brexit - to finally cure imperial delusions, as other nations have had to go through.
Yes, I think the nearest comparator in the modern era to the Brexit crisis is the French crisis over Algeria in 1958-60.
How? It is not though the Army is about to launch a coup or there is significant bloodshed.
Not yet
With that attitude, can you really contemplate a holiday ever again... ?
"following a vote to leave the European Union" - doesn't require Brexit to have happened.
Also in that same piece: let the record show that Iain Duncan Smith said this - "The Treasury has consistently got its predictions wrong in the past. This Treasury document is not an honest assessment but a deeply biased view of the future and it should not be believed by anyone."
TSE may find it difficult to swallow that IDS was more on the ball than his Blessed Osborne...
O/T I see there have been a number of quite astonishingly ignorant posts upthread about Help to Buy. I'd suggest people should look up how it works before making daft comments about it.
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Repeal the Statute of Westminster! No Parliament can bind its successors!
Blue and White 32 Likud 31 Religious 24 Arab 13 Left 11 Liebermann 9
Likud+Religious not feasible Blue and White plus Likud feasible but not with Netanyahu Blue and White plus Left plus Liebermann with C&S from Arab feasible but will Liebermann agree to even C&S from Arab?
Most likely outcome: Central coalition minus Netanyahu.
O/T I see there have been a number of quite astonishingly ignorant posts upthread about Help to Buy. I'd suggest people should look up how it works before making daft comments about it.
Just a technical point re: discussions on Help to buy.
It is ONLY available on new build properties. So is a sort of subsidy to Housebuilders but not to sellers of existing properties.
Arguably this should increase development/supply and therefore contribute to lower prices overall?
I think it's the case that if you subsidise buyers, the price increases (because your moving the demand curve to the right?) But if you subsidise the builders, that will decrease prices (by moving the supply curve to the right?) . I'm in the coffee Queue so I'm doing this in my head, so apols if wrong.
By some estimates there are as many Brits living in Australia alone as there are in all of the EU......I’m sure freedom of movement to Australia would not be unpopular (in the U.K. anyway.....Australia might be a different matter...).
HMG should go the whole hog and unite the UK, Australia, Canada, and NZ as one confederation. What a mighty and splendid nation that would be. Biggest in the world, ruled from the greatest city in the world.
Never go full Dan Hannan.
This would be only the use of a no-deal Brexit - to finally cure imperial delusions, as other nations have had to go through.
Yes, I think the nearest comparator in the modern era to the Brexit crisis is the French crisis over Algeria in 1958-60.
How? It is not though the Army is about to launch a coup or there is significant bloodshed.
I said it was the nearest comparator, not that it was exactly the same.
Algeria was crisis of national identity fuelled by incompetent and weak politicians who overestimated French power and influence and promised that they could achieve the impossible, namely continuing French control of Algeria.
Brexit is a crisis of national identity fuelled by incompetent and weak politicians who overestimated British power and influence and promised they could achieve the impossible, namely all the benefits of EU membership without any of the costs.
Can we swap Aus for Scotland? When does the transfer window open?
I guess it would only require a minor adjustment of mindset to move from 'don't leave us, whinging, benefit junky, Jock bastards' to 'come and join us, cheating, convict, Aussie tossers'. A little UKOK charm goes a long way.
No sane person would want to be associated with them TUD, hence everyone but Trump running for shelter when the morons come peddling their FTA's. I lie, the Faroes Islands caved in.
Comments
Perhaps I’m wrong , we’ll see when new polling comes out.
If you think that criteria means it’s not worth finding out what the public think of Farage, I’d say you were wrong
She’s right. The Lib Dems had an historic chance to seize Guardian-reading Remainerdom from Labour, probably forever. But they’ve blown it. A remarkable and entirely unforced error.
...oh.
"Swinson doesn't plan on winning the next election - this is purely optics so that, years from now, the LibDems will be remembered as the ones who tried to prevent the inevitable economic crash which followed. Combined with right-wing economic policy freed from the shackles of religious zealotry, this has a good chance of making the LibDems the new defacto replacement for the dying Tory party. It's not exactly 4D chess, but it's a longer game than the one Boris is playing."
I cant see revoke being a big vote winner for them on the political Right.
Coffee and work. Anon.
Thanks Theresa. Thanks a bunch.
You could call it the EEC.
If the population is increasing (which it is, at approximately 0.6% per year) and household sizes have been decreasing (which they have), this leads to automatic increased supply pressure.
Therefore the break-even rate is c. 1.6% of existing house supply. If we build at the rate of replacement plus household increase, pressure stabilises (at today's existing high pressure). If below, it increases further; if above, it starts to decrease.
On the question of a Remain pact, do you think that Plaid will still stand down in Brecon when the Liberals run a candidate against them in marginal Ceredigion? I don't. And here are Caroline Lucas's scathing comments about the Liberals new undemocratic "Revoke" policy, in the midst of which she bemoans the lack of a commitment from other parties to reciprocal arrangements with the Greens:
"Asked whether it made it harder to form a Remain election pact with the Lib Dems - which would see the parties agree not to compete for particular seats - she demanded a greater commitment from her closest political rivals. Ms Lucas told Brand the Lib Dems and Labour both needed to show a genuine intent "to help some Green Party voices to get into Parliament" after she felt let down by her party's sacrifices in the 2017 election."
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-17/caroline-lucas-acting-prime-minister-the-green-party-election/
A permanent CU, perhaps ('a', not 'the', of course), but the Single Market proposal wasn't membership , but something vague about being as closely aligned as possible.
And, of course, no clarity on FoM.
So not wildly different from May's deal, and obviously to be agreed.
Allowing for the DUP and the possibility (or not) of some Brexit Party MPs, that 29% translates into a higher figure.
Unlike straight revoke which would be undemocratic.
Also Swinson would never accept the same for the SNP if they won a Scottish election with a majority then declared Independence.
She is a hypocrite of the first order.
PS. A reminder. Libs not Lib Dems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49738869
https://twitter.com/AbolishEton/status/1174218833248305153
I'm encouraged, though, that Corbyn has come out fighting for the "Vote Labour for a final choice" policy. One can have popular policies, unpopular policies, and policies that one apologetically mentions and doesn't campaign for. The last is the worst by a large margin.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461881-jimmy-carter-i-hope-theres-an-age-limit-on-presidency
This includes parts of Piraeus. In August while I was there, there was exactly the same, sadly friendly homeless man, with his dog, music, and palliness with the coastguard , at the same departing kiosk for the boats, at the same time of day, as last year ; Homeless non-immigrants where unheard of ten years ago in the country. The country is starting to recover, but the signs are still there.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/22/brexit-would-cause-diy-recession-says-george-osborne
Increasingly though, I think there's no way of Labour doing well in an election before Brexit is 'resolved', no matter what their stance is.
My view still is that Court will rule it does have competence in cases like this but will not rule this particular prorogation illegal (by a narrow majority 6/5) and warn off the government from stretching any further.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1174267496926461953?s=20
Also in that same piece: let the record show that Iain Duncan Smith said this - "The Treasury has consistently got its predictions wrong in the past. This Treasury document is not an honest assessment but a deeply biased view of the future and it should not be believed by anyone."
TSE may find it difficult to swallow that IDS was more on the ball than his Blessed Osborne...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gvUclj6Tz6TRkVFtfBsGcsfCuHJN6awGpwIjfFPg1Yk/edit#gid=0
https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1173974056154144771?s=20
Edit: I see @alex understands it!
It's what I go to school for. Not a private one obviously.
Blue and White 32
Likud 31
Religious 24
Arab 13
Left 11
Liebermann 9
Likud+Religious not feasible
Blue and White plus Likud feasible but not with Netanyahu
Blue and White plus Left plus Liebermann with C&S from Arab feasible but will Liebermann agree to even C&S from Arab?
Most likely outcome: Central coalition minus Netanyahu.
Algeria was crisis of national identity fuelled by incompetent and weak politicians who overestimated French power and influence and promised that they could achieve the impossible, namely continuing French control of Algeria.
Brexit is a crisis of national identity fuelled by incompetent and weak politicians who overestimated British power and influence and promised they could achieve the impossible, namely all the benefits of EU membership without any of the costs.