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    Noo said:



    A more important difference is that the UK parliament can unilaterally decide to leave the EU, without seeking permission from the EU.
    The Scottish Parliament does not have the power to cause Scotland to become independent without Westminster agreeing.

    If I understand the Lib Dems position on this correctly, the difference is that Scotland being part of the UK is the *constitutional status quo*. Hence a referendum is needed. Whereas as we're still members of the EU, revoking A50 is pretty much the same as undoing a policy of the previous government, which hasn't even been fully enacted yet. Or at least, I think that's what the Lib Dems are trying to say.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brexit after it has been killed off, an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. The leavers will be too busy blaming each other for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and everyone else will get on with their lives, very relieved that the issue has gone away. The EU was not a big issue to most people outside the Tory Party before 2016 and it will return to that position.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    We'll see. I think it more likely that Brexit will be seen as an epic, never-to-be-repeated failure.
    I suspect Revoke will inevitably lead to Brexit. Revoke fails to address the fundamental reasons a significant percentage were dissatisfied with EU membership. In forthcoming years those reasons are likely to increase with actions to help the Euro zone, which imply greater integration of the EU. If you fail to treat the causes, the disease will prosper.

    A 'deal' will lead to ????? as that depends on the actual deal.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678

    Noo said:



    A more important difference is that the UK parliament can unilaterally decide to leave the EU, without seeking permission from the EU.
    The Scottish Parliament does not have the power to cause Scotland to become independent without Westminster agreeing.

    If I understand the Lib Dems position on this correctly, the difference is that Scotland being part of the UK is the *constitutional status quo*. Hence a referendum is needed. Whereas as we're still members of the EU, revoking A50 is pretty much the same as undoing a policy of the previous government, which hasn't even been fully enacted yet. Or at least, I think that's what the Lib Dems are trying to say.
    But they are in favour of changing the voting system - a massive change to the constitution would it not be? (I can't remember their policy on the House of Lords.)
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    Se.

    You can
    TBH I
    They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Yes EFTA might be fine in 10 years time once immigration is under control but not now and legally Boris cannot now No Deal unless he wins a Tory majority at the next general election anyway
    Immigration is under control. Stop scaremongering.
    There are controls on immigration.

    The Government has consistently failed to meet its targets on immigration.

    The public still thinks immigration levels are too high.

    It’s proven hard to agree further controls versus the economic or geopolitical consequences.

    All of these can be true.
    I don’t disagree. However the public is not willing to accept the consequences of highly restricted immigration. Just like with the EU, they want their cake and to eat it.

    The public wants out of the abstract ‘EU’ but want to retain all the benefits.
    The public wants rid of abstract ‘immigration’ but want to retain all the benefits.

    The pattern is clear and the blame is with those who campaign on simple half truths, playing on fear and division.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited September 2019
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:


    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.

    It's certainly a mahoosive can of worms that has been opened. Colossal.

    But if we're going to ignore referenda then surely the Lib Dem and the subsequent potential unintended consequences re Brexit and Scottish independence make perfect logical sense ?
    Well, quite. I hadn't quite grasped the implications of the LD policy on remain till this thread. And, as I said, if a simple SNP majority of MPs in Scottish constituencies was enough for Mrs Thatcher to give up and cede the matter ...
    Fortunately Holyrood is PR not just FPTP, though I cannot see the LDs winning a majority anyway even if they won most seats which is unlikely
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Byronic said:

    Look at Scotland. Has Sindy been killed off by its defeat in 2016? No. It is very much a live topic. Personally I think Sindyref2 won't happen, but there are millions of Scots who want it to happen, this afternoon. They haven't been silenced by loss.

    The same will happen to Brexit. If it is annulled, we will be like Scotland times ten. The issue will convulse our politics. The subject will never go away. The Tories will become an outright Brexit party, and, as Gabs2 points out, thanks to the insane Lib Dem Revoke policy, there will be huge pressure on the Tory leadership to have a vote-for-us-we-leave commitment, without a referendum (and why bother having a referendum, anyway, if they can just be ignored?)

    The only way to avoid this terrible fate, for the whole country, is for MPs and Remainers to shut the fuck up, and sign up to a deal, any deal.

    Signing up to a deal only makes things worse now.

    For one thing we would then have to start negotiating the real deal, the final deal, not the transitional arrangements and the settling of existing liabilities. Where's the consensus on what that should look like? We would be signing up to debate Brexit for years to come.

    More importantly, any deal will be passed with the votes of Remainer MPs, with pure-of-heart Leaver MPs voting against. Anything bad that happens will be blamed on the quisling traitors who sold the country down the river.

    We can only start to make things better by correcting the original mistake - holding a referendum that proposed a change the government was opposed to. That means we have to revoke.
    Reporting yesterday was that only 8 ERG members would vote against a deal that had minor changes to the backstop. Boris, Raab, Leadsom and the rest would all back the deal and it would be owned by them. Revoke just explodes the issue. It is crazy extremism that refuses to give an inch to the referendum result. Most of the worst mistakes in history are ones that try to correct a past mistake, not accepting the world has changed.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.
    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    Do you mean those Remainer MPs who were elected to oppose the Tory deal and to implement their own softer Brexit or those who were elected to oppose Brexit altogether?

    Or are you only referring to MPs in the Conservative Party who failed to win a majority?
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.
    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    Do you mean those Remainer MPs who were elected to oppose the Tory deal and to implement their own softer Brexit or those who were elected to oppose Brexit altogether?

    Or are you only referring to MPs in the Conservative Party who failed to win a majority?
    Sort your quoting out.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited September 2019

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and puAnd the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    EEA means free movement and betrays the Vote Leave promise of a points system and the main reason many working class voters voted Leave.

    In a decade once European immigration is under control EEA and EFTA may be OK but not now

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    Watching PL with Lt Francois today I must say that I had some sympathy for him, not a sensation I am familiar with and I was concerned for my wellbeing. His simple point, irrefutable, was that in June 2016 the people voted to leave the UK and we have not left.

    And then of course I remembered that he had voted three times against the deal to leave the EU and I thought: you fucking moron.

    And all was well in the world.
  • Options
    The more I read the more I am persuaded the LDs have made a long-term cock up for short term electoral gain. Some posters on here have made excellent points. Establishing the precedent that a majority government can ride roughshod over a (recent) referendum result is dangerous territory;

    1. The Tories could reasonably run a campaign every GE for leaving again without a referendum, and would eventually get into power at some point.
    2. Why could the SNP not unilaterally declare independence? They have won a majority of Scottish MPs at the last 2 elections and there has been 2 pro-indy majorities at the last 2 Holyrood elections. This reasonably meets current LD criteria for major constitutional change.

    Thus, this ruse actually solves nothing as both EU membership and the union are still threatened. They were smarter when they were protesting for another EU ref!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brexit after it has been killed off, an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. The s not a big issue to most people outside the Tory Party before 2016 and it will return to that position.
    They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Yes EFTA might be fine in 10 years time once immigration is under control but not now and legally Boris cannot now No Deal unless he wins a Tory majority at the next general election anyway
    Immigration is under control. Stop scaremongering.
    EU immigration has fallen a bit since the referendum but of course much of the blame lies with Blair failing to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004
  • Options

    The only answer to that is to make post-Brexit UK a rip-snorting success - such that the wavering semi-Unionists won't take the risk of missing out.


    HMG couldn't even 'make' its own mps vote for its own deal negotiated by its own ministers.

    Extra points for Panglossian effort, though.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    EEA means free movement and betrays the Vote Leave promise of a points system and the main reason many working class voters voted Leave.

    In a decade once European immigration is under control EEA and EFTA may be OK but not now

    What you have just said is irrelevant. Vote Leave said a lot of things which have conveniently been thrown at the wayside.

    The task that May had was to unite the country with a compromise deal. That meant Brexit with concessions for the Remain side that was very nearly half the country.

    You are the problem. Not the solution. You are only thinking about the Conservative Party.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    There are many blokes on many trains. I am sure
    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    Cameron comes across in his memoirs and interviews just as he always did. You put a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge, you get a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge. See, also, our current PM, who is everything Cameron was, but without any of the very limited redeeming qualities.

    I can't see Cameron conspicuously walking away from a joint press conference with another head of state because there are protesters in the crowd.

    Indeed. Johnson is a coward, which Cameron wasn’t. I also think that Cameron had a sense of duty, which Johnson clearly doesn’t have either.

    May had a better sense of duty than both, that was not much help to the Tories in the 2017 election
    But it won her respect later.
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    My sense is that most if not all *Tory* Remainers would have swallowed the Deal if the ERG had.

    And while Remainers in other parties should beware of any sub-optimal consequences of their actions, the basic fact is the government shouldn't rely on them to get their key policy through the Commons (certainly not without negotiating one they're happy with).

    TM tossed the dice on keeping the ERG happy instead of a consensus, and failed. Boris has doubled down and looks similarly likely to screw it up.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    e rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.
    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    Do you mean those Remainer MPs who were elected to oppose the Tory deal and to implement their own softer Brexit or those who were elected to oppose Brexit altogether?

    Or are you only referring to MPs in the Conservative Party who failed to win a majority?
    I mean the 300 MPs (or more) who secretly - or not-so-secretly - want Brexit annulled, and have been scotching any real-life Brexits for three years, in the increasing and badly-disguised hope that they will scupper Brexit altogether.

    We know that's what they believe and want. There are many with the same mindset here. And I see why they think this way. But they have not properly thought through the consequences if they "win".

  • Options

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.

    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    Actually no. The red lines got us here. As per Barnier's famous slide, Canada+ or No Deal was the destination.

    http://www.powerinaunion.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-20171_Page_2.jpg
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    edited September 2019

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    My sense is that most if not all *Tory* Remainers would have swallowed the Deal if the ERG had.

    And while Remainers in other parties should beware of any sub-optimal consequences of their actions, the basic fact is the government shouldn't rely on them to get their key policy through the Commons (certainly not without negotiating one they're happy with).

    TM tossed the dice on keeping the ERG happy instead of a consensus, and failed. Boris has doubled down and looks similarly likely to screw it up.
    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    The more I read the more I am persuaded the LDs have made a long-term cock up for short term electoral gain. Some posters on here have made excellent points. Establishing the precedent that a majority government can ride roughshod over a (recent) referendum result is dangerous territory;

    1. The Tories could reasonably run a campaign every GE for leaving again without a referendum, and would eventually get into power at some point.
    2. Why could the SNP not unilaterally declare independence? They have won a majority of Scottish MPs at the last 2 elections and there has been 2 pro-indy majorities at the last 2 Holyrood elections. This reasonably meets current LD criteria for major constitutional change.

    Thus, this ruse actually solves nothing as both EU membership and the union are still threatened. They were smarter when they were protesting for another EU ref!

    The LibDems don't seem to understand or have a long term strategy in a volatile and advantageous (to them) political moment. I would suggest it should be to take on the actions, mantle, aspiration and position of the largest Left / Centre Left party in UK politics.

    Nothing they have done at conference that I am aware of moves them in that long term direction. They have some short term headline grabbing initiatives which will possibly see them rise, peak and then fall back to insignificance.

    Sad
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    .
    But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    The government is Conservative supported by the DUP, and at the time the bill was being voted on they had a majority. Opposition MPs are not elected to support the government programme.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Byronic said:

    I mean the 300 MPs (or more) who secretly - or not-so-secretly - want Brexit annulled, and have been scotching any real-life Brexits for three years, in the increasing and badly-disguised hope that they will scupper Brexit altogether.

    We know that's what they believe and want. There are many with the same mindset here. And I see why they think this way. But they have not properly thought through the consequences if they "win".

    As I said, do you mean the MPs who, you know, were elected in 2017 on a manifesto to implement a specific kind of soft Brexit? Or those who were elected in 2017 on a manifesto to oppose Brexit?

    Or, as I said before, are you only referring to those in the Conservative Party?
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    Yes we did. EEA favoured our position (maintaining immigration and EU law) and our side refused to even push for that, preferring to overrule the first result with a second vote. Remain MPs voted against the withdrawal agreement every time, never having a clear reason for why (other than "we don't want Brexit) and then didn't back any soft Brexit in the indicative votes. We also changed century old rules in parliament, co-opting a Speaker who is supposed to be impartial to block Brexit. And also negotiated behind the back of the PM with the EU to force him into a politically bad position. And are now arguing for Revoke without even a hint of democratic legitimacy.

    Don't get me wrong, May and especially Boris have done similar things on the other side. But it is this refusal to ever consider our own behaviour, because we are so angry at the other side, that got us here. Both sides have behaved disgracefully and ensured the split will be entrenched for decades. Which is nuts when the UK bouncing back and forth helps Eurosceptics far more than pro-Europeans.
  • Options
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brexit after it has been killed off, an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. The leavers will be too busy blaming each other for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and everyone else will get on with their lives, very relieved that the issue has gone away. The EU was not a big issue to most people outside the Tory Party before 2016 and it will return to that position.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    We'll see. I think it more likely that Brexit will be seen as an epic, never-to-be-repeated failure.
    Even if it seen as that among 60% of the public, it won't be enough to put it to bed. Especially when the mess has been caused partially through Remain majorities voting against every form of Brexit and changing parliamentary rules to block it. Leavers will now always blame the mess on Remainers and say Brexit has never been tried.
    We have been trying to Brexit since 2016. And it has proved impossible to come up with a satisfactory way of leaving.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brell return to that position.
    They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an isized that.
    Yes EFTA might be fine in 10 years time once immigration is under control but not now and legally Boris cannot now No Deal unless he wins a Tory majority at the next general election anyway
    Immigration is under control. Stop scaremongering.
    EU immigration has fallen a bit since the referendum but of course much of the blame lies with Blair failing to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004
    Its an argument.

    However the main issue for immigration imo is that no government addressed the flaws in the UK social security system and therefore we were an open house to all comers.

    If Blair or Cameron had adapted the rules to fit the social nets of other EU countries the rate of immigration would have been much slower.
  • Options

    If the SC ruled on say Friday that prorogation was illegal and parliament is recalled could BJ not introduce a one line bill for an election on the day of Corbyns conference speech?

    Yes but it would not be passed.
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    blockquote>
    .

    .

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]
    blockquote>
    .

    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.
    .
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    Now you put it that way, the LDs have also legitimised an instant withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, sans referendum, given the pro-independence majorities at both Holyrood and Westminster (Scots MPs). No wonder that Ms Swinson is denying this so emphatically, and LDs more generally are carefully insisting that any such 'legitimisation' has to await another election. And that would give the Tories an instant boost towards gaining a majorsity in the rump UK.
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    "EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that."

    Exactly. As Dan Hannan [ who keeps quiet these days ] wanted. He even did a PPB [ or whatever it was called ] .
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited September 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brexit after it has been killed off, an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. The leavers will be too busy blaming each other for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and everyone else will get on with their lives, very relieved that the issue has gone away. The EU was not a big issue to most people outside the Tory Party before 2016 and it will return to that position.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    We'll see. I think it more likely that Brexit will be seen as an epic, never-to-be-repeated failure.
    Even if it seen as that among 60% of the public, it won't be enough to put it to bed. Especially when the mess has been caused partially through Remain majorities voting against every form of Brexit and changing parliamentary rules to block it. Leavers will now always blame the mess on Remainers and say Brexit has never been tried.
    We have been trying to Brexit since 2016. And it has proved impossible to come up with a satisfactory way of leaving.
    Because the Tories haven't had a proper majority. You feel comfortable with them never getting one for 20 years?
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    OK, I actually think,,.,, I'VE HAD ENOUGH BREXIT FOR ONE DAY

    Scandalous, I know.

    Later.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    If the SC ruled on say Friday that prorogation was illegal and parliament is recalled could BJ not introduce a one line bill for an election on the day of Corbyns conference speech?

    Yes but it would not be passed.
    I could see good reasons why both Labour and Cons would want somewhat tense and tumultuous conferences to be cancelled.

    Then they could fight an election and watch candidates have blue on blue and red on red battles all over the country instead of in one conference hall.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Gabs2 said:

    we did. EEA favoured our position (maintaining immigration and EU law) and our side refused to even push for that, preferring to overrule the first result with a second vote. Remain MPs voted against the withdrawal agreement every time, never having a clear reason for why (other than "we don't want Brexit) and then didn't back any soft Brexit in the indicative votes. We also changed century old rules in parliament, co-opting a Speaker who is supposed to be impartial to block Brexit. And also negotiated behind the back of the PM with the EU to force him into a politically bad position. And are now arguing for Revoke without even a hint of democratic legitimacy.

    Don't get me wrong, May and especially Boris have done similar things on the other side. But it is this refusal to ever consider our own behaviour, because we are so angry at the other side, that got us here. Both sides have behaved disgracefully and ensured the split will be entrenched for decades. Which is nuts when the UK bouncing back and forth helps Eurosceptics far more than pro-Europeans.

    This is nonsense. How did you expect Remainers to ‘push for EEA’? May gave no opportunity to engage with the opposition or those outside of the Conservative Party or the DUP until it was far, far too late.

    And the Speaker is simply reflecting the will of Parliament. You have a problem with that do you? If Parliament was not happy he would have been gone a long time ago.

    And don’t even go there with the absolute sham that was the indicative votes. They were essentially forced onto the government and had no legitimacy.
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    .
    But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    .
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    The government is Conservative supported by the DUP, and at the time the bill was being voted on they had a majority. Opposition MPs are not elected to support the government programme.
    No, but they can reasonably be expected to support implementing a democratic referendum result.
  • Options
    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Carnyx said:

    Gabs2 said:


    [snipped]

    You can take anot'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.

    ion.
    .
    But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an issue for at least 40% of the country, which is more than enough for the Tories to win a majority sooner or later and pull us out. And the Lib Dems have now legitimized that.
    .
    If we do annul the vote, whether by referendum or revoke, we will, inter alia, have delegitimized any further referendums. No one will bother voting in them, again, given that they can simply be overturned if politicians don't like the answer.

    This will do quiet and terrible damage to our democracy.

    We approach the abyss. The only answer is a deal, and out. But Remainers are too stupid to see the damage they are doing, they now think they can "win". But they will make a desert, and call it victory.
    Stop making this about Remainers. We didn’t scorch the middle ground. We didn’t oppose compromise. We didn’t expect Brexit not to happen.

    EFTA/EEA was always the answer and it was Leavers who ruined that.

    Leavers and the Conservative Party have got us to this point. Nobody else.
    It is asinine to deny that Remainer MPs are the main bloc against a deal. Sure, the foaming idiots in the ERG are also to blame, but they are fewer.
    The government is Conservative supported by the DUP, and at the time the bill was being voted on they had a majority. Opposition MPs are not elected to support the government programme.
    No, but they can reasonably be expected to support implementing a democratic referendum result.
    Prorogation = "We have to destroy suspend democracy to save it!"
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    OK, I actually think,,.,, I'VE HAD ENOUGH BREXIT FOR ONE DAY

    Scandalous, I know.

    Later.

    Laters, Sean :)
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    I would have accepted the EEA at the end of June 2016. That would have been in accordance with the Referendum since the ballot paper only said "leaving the EU".
    However, after all the lying, I will accept nothing short of a second referendum with Remain as an option.
    People may not have realized that the Lib Dem position [ in case, they do not win a majority which = 100% ] is precisely that. So, is Labour's and about 20/30 Tories like Greening.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have on nevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brell return to that position.
    They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an isized that.
    Yes EFTA might be fine in 10 years time once immigration is under control but not now and legally Boris cannot now No Deal unless he wins a Tory majority at the next general election anyway
    Immigration is under control. Stop scaremongering.
    EU immigration has fallen a bit since the referendum but of course much of the blame lies with Blair failing to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004
    Its an argument.

    However the main issue for immigration imo is that no government addressed the flaws in the UK social security system and therefore we were an open house to all comers.

    If Blair or Cameron had adapted the rules to fit the social nets of other EU countries the rate of immigration would have been much slower.
    Maybe but even France and Germany have non contributory as well as contributory unemployment benefits, it is only Italy and Eastern Europe etc who have contributory unemployment benefits only
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    HYUFD said:

    EEA means free movement and betrays the Vote Leave promise of a points system and the main reason many working class voters voted Leave.

    In a decade once European immigration is under control EEA and EFTA may be OK but not now

    What you have just said is irrelevant. Vote Leave said a lot of things which have conveniently been thrown at the wayside.

    The task that May had was to unite the country with a compromise deal. That meant Brexit with concessions for the Remain side that was very nearly half the country.

    You are the problem. Not the solution. You are only thinking about the Conservative Party.
    And Corbyn is only thinking about the Labour Party and even Corbyn has only committed to a Customs Union not full single market membership as it requires free movement which goes down badly in Labour Leave seats at present
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have on nevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brell return to that position.
    They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Immigration would remain an isized that.
    Yes EFTA might be fine in 10 years time once immigration is under control but not now and legally Boris cannot now No Deal unless he wins a Tory majority at the next general election anyway
    Immigration is under control. Stop scaremongering.
    Its an argument.

    However the main issue for immigration imo is that no government addressed the flaws in the UK social security system and therefore we were an open house to all comers.

    If Blair or Cameron had adapted the rules to fit the social nets of other EU countries the rate of immigration would have been much slower.
    Maybe but even France and Germany have non contributory as well as contributory benefits, it is only Italy and Eastern Europe etc who have contributory unemployment benefits only
    BREXITISM = SOCIALISM! :lol:
  • Options
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brexit after it has been killed off, an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. The leavers will be too busy blaming each other for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and everyone else will get on with their lives, very relieved that the issue has gone away. The EU was not a big issue to most people outside the Tory Party before 2016 and it will return to that position.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    We'll see. I think it more likely that Brexit will be seen as an epic, never-to-be-repeated failure.
    Even if it seen as that among 60% of the public, it won't be enough to put it to bed. Especially when the mess has been caused partially through Remain majorities voting against every form of Brexit and changing parliamentary rules to block it. Leavers will now always blame the mess on Remainers and say Brexit has never been tried.
    We have been trying to Brexit since 2016. And it has proved impossible to come up with a satisfactory way of leaving.
    Because the Tories haven't had a proper majority. You feel comfortable with them never getting one for 20 years?
    Certainly. I would feel even more comfortable if they never get a majority again ever.
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    OK, I actually think,,.,, I'VE HAD ENOUGH BREXIT FOR ONE DAY

    Scandalous, I know.

    Later.

    Let Byronic go and give his electronic devices back THIS MINUTE.
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    we did. EEA favoured our position (maintaining immigration and EU law) and our side refused to even push for that, preferring to overrule the first result with a second vote. Remain MPs voted against the withdrawal agreement every time, never having a clear reason for why (other than "we don't want Brexit) and then didn't back any soft Brexit in the indicative votes. We also changed century old rules in parliament, co-opting a Speaker who is supposed to be impartial to block Brexit. And also negotiated behind the back of the PM with the EU to force him into a politically bad position. And are now arguing for Revoke without even a hint of democratic legitimacy.

    Don't get me wrong, May and especially Boris have done similar things on the other side. But it is this refusal to ever consider our own behaviour, because we are so angry at the other side, that got us here. Both sides have behaved disgracefully and ensured the split will be entrenched for decades. Which is nuts when the UK bouncing back and forth helps Eurosceptics far more than pro-Europeans.

    This is nonsense. How did you expect Remainers to ‘push for EEA’? May gave no opportunity to engage with the opposition or those outside of the Conservative Party or the DUP until it was far, far too late.

    And the Speaker is simply reflecting the will of Parliament. You have a problem with that do you? If Parliament was not happy he would have been gone a long time ago.

    And don’t even go there with the absolute sham that was the indicative votes. They were essentially forced onto the government and had no legitimacy.
    If all Remainers in parliament - Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Tory Remainers - had written a letter backing a SM/CU, and made clear that is the only Brexit they would vote for, we would have got it. Any argument that we were not being democratic would have gone up in smoke. After May's deal had fallen, it would have been the obvious alternative and there would have been a massive win for it in indicative votes. We would have got there.

    And yes, I do have a problem with the Speaker changing the rules to support a majority in parliament. It would have been wrong for the Speaker to be a Thatcherite tactician in the 1980s or a Blairite one in the 2000s. It is supposed to be impartial.

    The indicative votes were forced on the government, which shows how Remainers had the votes to get what they wanted had they united around a legitimate implementation of the referendum rather than wage scorched Earth warfare.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    EEA means free movement and betrays the Vote Leave promise of a points system and the main reason many working class voters voted Leave.

    In a decade once European immigration is under control EEA and EFTA may be OK but not now

    What you have just said is irrelevant. Vote Leave said a lot of things which have conveniently been thrown at the wayside.

    The task that May had was to unite the country with a compromise deal. That meant Brexit with concessions for the Remain side that was very nearly half the country.

    You are the problem. Not the solution. You are only thinking about the Conservative Party.
    And Corbyn is only thinking about the Labour Party and even Corbyn has only committed to a Customs Union not full single market membership as it requires free movement which goes down badly in Labour Leave seats at present
    So what you are saying is that it’s okay to only think about the Conservative Party and not the country as a whole because Corbyn is only thinking about the Labour Party?
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    .
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    We'll see. I think it more likely that Brexit will be seen as an epic, never-to-be-repeated failure.
    Even if it seen as that among 60% of the public, it won't be enough to put it to bed. Especially when the mess has been caused partially through Remain majorities voting against every form of Brexit and changing parliamentary rules to block it. Leavers will now always blame the mess on Remainers and say Brexit has never been tried.
    We have been trying to Brexit since 2016. And it has proved impossible to come up with a satisfactory way of leaving.
    Because the Tories haven't had a proper majority. You feel comfortable with them never getting one for 20 years?
    Certainly. I would feel even more comfortable if they never get a majority again ever.
    I mean you feel comfortable in predicting that they definitely won't get a majority in the next 20 years? I would say the chance is sub-5%.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,212

    If the SC ruled on say Friday that prorogation was illegal and parliament is recalled could BJ not introduce a one line bill for an election on the day of Corbyns conference speech?

    I expect the Speaker would rule against the obvious attempt to wreck and set the date for the debate for Johnson's own conference- denuded as it will be
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Gabs2 said:

    If all Remainers in parliament - Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Tory Remainers - had written a letter backing a SM/CU, and made clear that is the only Brexit they would vote for, we would have got it. Any argument that we were not being democratic would have gone up in smoke. After May's deal had fallen, it would have been the obvious alternative and there would have been a massive win for it in indicative votes. We would have got there.

    And yes, I do have a problem with the Speaker changing the rules to support a majority in parliament. It would have been wrong for the Speaker to be a Thatcherite tactician in the 1980s or a Blairite one in the 2000s. It is supposed to be impartial.

    The indicative votes were forced on the government, which shows how Remainers had the votes to get what they wanted had they united around a legitimate implementation of the referendum rather than wage scorched Earth warfare.

    Why would they when May was telling everyone she was going to get a fantastic deal?
    It’s only after did she descend into the ‘crush the saboteurs’ ‘Brexit means Brexit’ nonsense.

    And the Speaker has not changed the rules. He hasn’t done anything contentious when you think about it rationally. What is the problem with MPs in general controlling the order paper themselves? That is what would happen if we were free of the tyranny of party whips.

    Remember this is all possible because of the hung parliament.

    It wouldn’t have mattered who the speaker was if the government had a majority.
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,772

    Byronic said:



    lol. Why do you bother with these pathetic lies? This is PB. You will be found out.

    Hey, Sean!

    Since 2016 accession negotiations have stalled.[7] The EU has accused and criticized Turkey for human rights violations and deficits in rule of law.[8] In 2017, EU officials expressed that planned Turkish policies violate the Copenhagen criteria of eligibility for an EU membership.[9] On 26 June 2018, the EU's General Affairs Council stated that "the Council notes that Turkey has been moving further away from the European Union. Turkey’s accession negotiations have therefore effectively come to a standstill and no further chapters can be considered for opening or closing and no further work towards the modernisation of the EU-Turkey Customs Union is foreseen."[10][11]


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
    The Referendum was 2016. Your point?
    In terms of the acquisTurkey had been going backwards since 2013.
  • Options
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Carnyx, indeed. The Lib Dem policy has seen them get high off their own supply. They've started to believe their own bullshit, to the extent of needlessly throwing away soft Remain types and setting a foolish precedent. Oh, and rupturing the nascent pro-EU alliance.

    It's daft.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Carnyx, indeed. The Lib Dem policy has seen them get high off their own supply. They've started to believe their own bullshit, to the extent of needlessly throwing away soft Remain types and setting a foolish precedent. Oh, and rupturing the nascent pro-EU alliance.

    It's daft.

    No it isn’t. Soft remain types will vote Lib Dem if faced with Corbyn’s Labour or Johnson’s ConservaKIP.
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    I would have accepted the EEA at the end of June 2016. That would have been in accordance with the Referendum since the ballot paper only said "leaving the EU".
    However, after all the lying, I will accept nothing short of a second referendum with Remain as an option.
    People may not have realized that the Lib Dem position [ in case, they do not win a majority which = 100% ] is precisely that. So, is Labour's and about 20/30 Tories like Greening.

    You mean all the Remainer lying of course which has given you hope you might be able to ignore the referendum result. Another one who hates democracy unless they are winning.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    I would have accepted the EEA at the end of June 2016. That would have been in accordance with the Referendum since the ballot paper only said "leaving the EU".
    However, after all the lying, I will accept nothing short of a second referendum with Remain as an option.
    People may not have realized that the Lib Dem position [ in case, they do not win a majority which = 100% ] is precisely that. So, is Labour's and about 20/30 Tories like Greening.

    You mean all the Remainer lying of course which has given you hope you might be able to ignore the referendum result. Another one who hates democracy unless they are winning.
    Do you mean just like Leave?
    Who only won a referendum by quoting half-truths and playing on people’s fears?
    Yeah. Pot kettle black.
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    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
  • Options
    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    The plan of cummings etc was to make the next election a referendum on Brexit anyway. It's logical that the parties should split along those lines: Tories for No Deal now that they've cut out all the softies, Lib Dem have to be Remain, whereas Labour have to be the party of some kind of Soft Brexit. The problem Labour will find is that the Remainers will never compromise.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871

    Byronic said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brexit after it has been killed off, an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. The leavers will be too busy blaming each other for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and everyone else will get on with their lives, very relieved that the issue has gone away. The EU was not a big issue to most people outside the Tory Party before 2016 and it will return to that position.


    The only way to avoid this terrible fate, for the whole country, is for MPs and Remainers to shut the fuck up, and sign up to a deal, any deal.
    And until they do, everything that goes wrong in the UK will be down to Brexit Denied.

    Of course, once we do Brexit, it dooms the Union, because for Scotland, everything that goes wrong will be down to Brexit Delivered. The only answer to that is to make post-Brexit UK a rip-snorting success - such that the wavering semi-Unionists won't take the risk of missing out.
    We will be gone by then and laughing across the barb wire and towers the rUK has put up.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sky news headline on Twitter that Paddick referenced an interview done by Sky. Like some desperate wannabe on Britains got Talent.
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    sarissa said:

    Byronic said:



    lol. Why do you bother with these pathetic lies? This is PB. You will be found out.

    Hey, Sean!

    Since 2016 accession negotiations have stalled.[7] The EU has accused and criticized Turkey for human rights violations and deficits in rule of law.[8] In 2017, EU officials expressed that planned Turkish policies violate the Copenhagen criteria of eligibility for an EU membership.[9] On 26 June 2018, the EU's General Affairs Council stated that "the Council notes that Turkey has been moving further away from the European Union. Turkey’s accession negotiations have therefore effectively come to a standstill and no further chapters can be considered for opening or closing and no further work towards the modernisation of the EU-Turkey Customs Union is foreseen."[10][11]


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union
    The Referendum was 2016. Your point?
    In terms of the acquisTurkey had been going backwards since 2013.
    24 November 2016 – MEPs vote overwhelmingly to suspend negotiations with Turkey over human rights and rule of law concerns.
    20 February 2019 - EU parliament committee votes to suspend accession talks with Turkey.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    The Lib Dems will only implement revoke if they somehow win a majority. Which they won’t. So calm down man. It’s bad for your health.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    Yes. As in Scotland. A total realignment around the indy issue, and no sign of it returning to "normal", ever. We are copying what happened there, exactly, but with added farce and better drama.
    The key difference is that, per the main Remain party's new position, the EU issue can be decided on a single election majority, while the SNP require a referendum.
    A more important difference is that the UK parliament can unilaterally decide to leave the EU, without seeking permission from the EU.
    The Scottish Parliament does not have the power to cause Scotland to become independent without Westminster agreeing.
    It's a construct of the 1990s by the Labour Party, with modifications since. But in the long term, is it a sustainable position if a clear majority arises? It's also an odd doctrine for a Liberal Democrat like Ms Swinson in particular.
    It is also against UN Conventions and easily challenged in Law. Slavery was abolished a long time ago.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    The Lib Dems will only implement revoke if they somehow win a majority. Which they won’t. So calm down man. It’s bad for your health.
    So the usual moon on a stick from the irrelevant party
  • Options

    I would have accepted the EEA at the end of June 2016. That would have been in accordance with the Referendum since the ballot paper only said "leaving the EU".
    However, after all the lying, I will accept nothing short of a second referendum with Remain as an option.
    People may not have realized that the Lib Dem position [ in case, they do not win a majority which = 100% ] is precisely that. So, is Labour's and about 20/30 Tories like Greening.

    You mean all the Remainer lying of course which has given you hope you might be able to ignore the referendum result. Another one who hates democracy unless they are winning.
    Do you mean just like Leave?
    Who only won a referendum by quoting half-truths and playing on people’s fears?
    Yeah. Pot kettle black.
    "He was deceived by a lie. We all were!"
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    Carnyx said:

    Noo said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    Yes. As in Scotland. A total realignment around the indy issue, and no sign of it returning to "normal", ever. We are copying what happened there, exactly, but with added farce and better drama.
    The key difference is that, per the main Remain party's new position, the EU issue can be decided on a single election majority, while the SNP require a referendum.
    It's a construct of the 1990s by the Labour Party, with modifications since. But in the long term, is it a sustainable position if a clear majority arises? It's also an odd doctrine for a Liberal Democrat like Ms Swinson in particular.
    It is also against UN Conventions and easily challenged in Law. Slavery was abolished a long time ago.

    Noo said:



    If I understand the Lib Dems position on this correctly, the difference is that Scotland being part of the UK is the *constitutional status quo*. Hence a referendum is needed. Whereas as we're still members of the EU, revoking A50 is pretty much the same as undoing a policy of the previous government, which hasn't even been fully enacted yet. Or at least, I think that's what the Lib Dems are trying to say.
    We can just revoke the Union Treaty and F*** the Lib Dems
  • Options
    Mr. Gate, disagree, if Labour go for a second referendum.

    Pro-EU types who like the idea of actually having a referendum to decide things (requiring 50%+ of voters) rather than a General Election victory (35% or less in some cases) and wanting to try and seal the deal rather than get a short-lived, Pyrrhic victory may very well prefer a referendum.

    In the best case scenario, the Lib Dems get votes they would've gotten anyway if they'd stuck with their referendum policy.

    And to make things even better, they're very, very unlikely to get a majority anyway. So they've almost certainly lost votes for nothing.

    Recently, the yellows have been doing very well, but this is a strategic mistake, and an entirely unnecessary one, I think.
  • Options

    Gabs2 said:


    People seem to be ignoring the main implication of this. Remainers are now arguing a General Election majority with a manifesto pledge can now overrule a referendum result.

    So if we have a second referendum, the Tory party can overrule this with a manifesto pledge to leave the EU and a majority. Given the Tories have now become a committed Brexit party, they will have this manifesto pledge every General Election from now on, and it won't matter if there is a second referendum result for Remain in the meantime. The left will not keep out the Tories forever. The Lib Dems have made Brexit inevitable.

    You can take another step and look at the party-political upshot of this, which is that if you're an ex-Tory Remainer in one of the many seats across the south that the LibDems are hoping to gain from Con, it won't be enough to merely vote LibDem this time, then revert to your former allegiance.

    To prevent Brexit from rising zombie-like from its grave, you'll have to *keep voting Liberal Democrat, again and again, for the rest of your life*.
    TBH I don't think many people will be trying to revive Brexit after it has been killed off, an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. The leavers will be too busy blaming each other for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and everyone else will get on with their lives, very relieved that the issue has gone away. The EU was not a big issue to most people outside the Tory Party before 2016 and it will return to that position.
    I am afraid you are very sadly mistaken. Leave will not just die. They will make sure this remains an issue for every party and at every election going forward.
    It might well do. But I'm increasingly wondering if the outcome will be BINO like this:

    1. Boris somehow no-deals us
    2. The Conservatives are voted out at a sudden election when things go pear-shaped
    3. A Labour/Lib Dem coalition takes us back into EFTA+CU imminently, under heavy pressure (on both us and EFTA) from the EU, who won't want us back but also don't want us destabilising the region.

    A few ultra-Leavers and diehard Remainers™ would be upset, but most people would be glad it's over. By and large, Leave would die and Remain would die.
    Seems reasonable to me.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    philiph said:

    The more I read the more I am persuaded the LDs have made a long-term cock up for short term electoral gain. Some posters on here have made excellent points. Establishing the precedent that a majority government can ride roughshod over a (recent) referendum result is dangerous territory;

    1. The Tories could reasonably run a campaign every GE for leaving again without a referendum, and would eventually get into power at some point.
    2. Why could the SNP not unilaterally declare independence? They have won a majority of Scottish MPs at the last 2 elections and there has been 2 pro-indy majorities at the last 2 Holyrood elections. This reasonably meets current LD criteria for major constitutional change.

    Thus, this ruse actually solves nothing as both EU membership and the union are still threatened. They were smarter when they were protesting for another EU ref!

    The LibDems don't seem to understand or have a long term strategy in a volatile and advantageous (to them) political moment. I would suggest it should be to take on the actions, mantle, aspiration and position of the largest Left / Centre Left party in UK politics.

    Nothing they have done at conference that I am aware of moves them in that long term direction. They have some short term headline grabbing initiatives which will possibly see them rise, peak and then fall back to insignificance.

    Sad
    They are led by donkeys
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    The Lib Dems will only implement revoke if they somehow win a majority. Which they won’t. So calm down man. It’s bad for your health.
    So the usual moon on a stick from the irrelevant party
    If they are so irrelevant then why do you care?
  • Options

    If we'd had the promised referendum on Lisbon then things would be very different. But Brown and the Lib Dems determined that manifesto pledges should be tossed overboard and the electorate shouldn't have a say.

    The seeds of discontent were planted by such duplicitous acts as this.

    Blair not Brown.
    It was Brown who signed the thing
    It was Blair who decided that following the downgrading of the treaty after the French and Dutch referendums, it was no longer relevant. By all means, disagree with the decision if you wish but Blair was PM when it was taken.
    Brown could have reversed the decision. It was he who slunk in through the back door to sign it.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    The Lib Dems will only implement revoke if they somehow win a majority. Which they won’t. So calm down man. It’s bad for your health.
    So the usual moon on a stick from the irrelevant party
    If they are so irrelevant then why do you care?
    Irrelevant doesn't mean uninteresting
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    Mr. Gate, disagree, if Labour go for a second referendum.

    Pro-EU types who like the idea of actually having a referendum to decide things (requiring 50%+ of voters) rather than a General Election victory (35% or less in some cases) and wanting to try and seal the deal rather than get a short-lived, Pyrrhic victory may very well prefer a referendum.

    In the best case scenario, the Lib Dems get votes they would've gotten anyway if they'd stuck with their referendum policy.

    And to make things even better, they're very, very unlikely to get a majority anyway. So they've almost certainly lost votes for nothing.

    Recently, the yellows have been doing very well, but this is a strategic mistake, and an entirely unnecessary one, I think.

    The Lib Dems are just trying to maximise their vote. The ideal situation would be Corbyn minority administration dependent on Lib Dem votes to ensure he goes through with his referendum promise.

    Could it be a mistake? Possibly. But they have nothing to lose.
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    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    The Lib Dems will only implement revoke if they somehow win a majority. Which they won’t. So calm down man. It’s bad for your health.
    You seem to think I am exercised by the comments on here. I am not. I just enjoy pouring scorn on the Remoaner scum.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    The Lib Dems will only implement revoke if they somehow win a majority. Which they won’t. So calm down man. It’s bad for your health.
    You seem to think I am exercised by the comments on here. I am not. I just enjoy pouring scorn on the Remoaner scum.
    Lovely to speak to you too.
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    On topic, I begged Hillary Benn to include a one line clause in his bill banning Mike from taking foreign holidays.
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    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    stodge said:

    I see my earlier picked up a couple of comments. Blair's outstanding success was to convince millions of disillusioned Conservative voters the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left. Against a divided and exhausted Conservative Party, the miracle is the Tories got as many as 165 seats - it wouldn't have taken much to take them nearer 100.

    It's not an easy act to pull - Wilson back in 1964 convinced the country his Labour Party was modern and technocratic and almost non-ideological while Thatcher in 1979 offered what looked a convincing alternative to the Butskellite concensus whose failure had darkened or illuminated the 1970s.

    You can't do a volte face - it takes years to convince a sceptical electorate your Party has really changed. Labour's journey back to power started in the mid 80s but Kinnock couldn't complete the journey because of who he was and his political roots. Blair could for the same reasons. Cameron managed to persuade people his Conservative Party had shed its Thatcherite past and was once again a "One Nation" party but even with a global financial crash and 13 years of an exhausted Labour Government, he couldn't win a majority at one election and needed a second.

    Take Brexit out of the equation and on issues such as housing and climate change there's probably more cross-party agreement than some might imagine but Brexit dominates to such an extent these important issues and many others have been relegated to the margins.

    I sort of disagree with the first paragraph.

    Of the 4.5 million voters who deserted the Conservatives between 1992-1997, most simply did not vote in the next election.


    How many of those weren't in a position to vote in 1997?
    They can't all have been in prison, surely?
    I was thinking of natural population turnover. A population of 65 million and a lifespan of 75, is going to lose c500-800k people per year. In 5 years that's 2.5-4 million people, probably of whom at least half voted Tory.
    Fair point and, yes, I was simplifying to a static population.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,678

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Carnyx, indeed. The Lib Dem policy has seen them get high off their own supply. They've started to believe their own bullshit, to the extent of needlessly throwing away soft Remain types and setting a foolish precedent. Oh, and rupturing the nascent pro-EU alliance.

    It's daft.

    Still considering the implications - but think of Scotland for instance. Theres a strong (not perfect, oh no, but strong) correlation between voting on independence and on Brexit, esp. hard Brexit. So Ms Swinson's pushing 'revoke and no you Scots can't have indyref2 because I say so' is surely going to upset the pro-indy, more remainy types, AND the Unionist (in both senses) types, who are much more leavy. And in both cases there are full-fat indy/remain and leave/Unionist parties to vote for.

    Labour sat in the middle - or rather were weak Unionist - and lost votes that way to the full fat Ruth Davidson Party.

    Do the LDs think they will manage that trick? being hardline in two different directions? It doesn't seem to make sense as a policy to gain many seats in Scotland, does it, so maybe it is targeted at England (and only part thereof).
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    edited September 2019

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    We still live in a party political system, Richard, and the parties aren't Leave and Remain. Labour wants to be in government and will do all it can to oppose the Conservatives. The Conservatives, meanwhile, couldn't appeal to the national interest because their own party were opposing the policy.

    Just because you have become swivel-eyed and see everything from immigration to what cheese is available at Tesco through the lens of leave or remain, doesn't mean that sane people everyone else does.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546

    Mr. Gate, disagree, if Labour go for a second referendum.

    Pro-EU types who like the idea of actually having a referendum to decide things (requiring 50%+ of voters) rather than a General Election victory (35% or less in some cases) and wanting to try and seal the deal rather than get a short-lived, Pyrrhic victory may very well prefer a referendum.

    In the best case scenario, the Lib Dems get votes they would've gotten anyway if they'd stuck with their referendum policy.

    And to make things even better, they're very, very unlikely to get a majority anyway. So they've almost certainly lost votes for nothing.

    Recently, the yellows have been doing very well, but this is a strategic mistake, and an entirely unnecessary one, I think.

    The Lib Dems are just trying to maximise their vote. The ideal situation would be Corbyn minority administration dependent on Lib Dem votes to ensure he goes through with his referendum promise.

    Could it be a mistake? Possibly. But they have nothing to lose.
    Not quite - I think the ideal is a *Labour* minority administration with the LDs providing confidence and supply on the condition that Corbyn is dumped for a competent leader who can be trusted on Brexit.
  • Options

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    I don't think that stands up. Yes, some of the MPs who voted down May's deal were 'Remainers' wanting to reverse the referendum result, but the bulk of them were Labour MPs voting in accordance with a three-line whip. The principal motivations of the Labour leadership's position were to stuff the Tories and maintain what they thought was their electorally-advantageous ambiguity, not to reverse the referendum result.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    The Lib Dems are trying to recover key a vote base in England that they lost after the coalition: students and other young people.
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    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    The Lib Dems will only implement revoke if they somehow win a majority. Which they won’t. So calm down man. It’s bad for your health.
    You seem to think I am exercised by the comments on here. I am not. I just enjoy pouring scorn on the Remoaner scum.
    Lovely to speak to you too.
    Richard seems to have been sent slightly mad by the way Brexit is turning out. He worked diligently and honourably for Brexit for decades, and it now all might be turning to dust.

    (I still hope we can turn this mess around with some form of deal. God knows what that's be, though. My own choices are deal, referendum of some form, revoke, and then no-deal. I fear my least favoured option will be where we're heading.)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,915

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    I don't think that stands up. Yes, some of the MPs who voted down May's deal were 'Remainers' wanting to reverse the referendum result, but the bulk of them were Labour MPs voting in accordance with a three-line whip. The principal motivations of the Labour leadership's position were to stuff the Tories and maintain what they thought was their electorally-advantageous ambiguity, not to reverse the referendum result.
    Yes, so politicians used the result of direct democracy to play party politics which results in the result being frustrated. What a bunch of jokers
  • Options

    On topic, I begged Hillary Benn to include a one line clause in his bill banning Mike from taking foreign holidays.

    That would be difficult while we are still in the EU and have freedom of movement.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    We still live in a party political system, Richard, and the parties aren't Leave and Remain. Labour wants to be in government and will do all it can to oppose the Conservatives. The Conservatives, meanwhile, couldn't appeal to the national interest because their own party were opposing the policy.

    Just because you have become swivel-eyed and see everything from immigration to what cheese is available at Tesco through the lens of leave or remain, doesn't mean that sane people everyone else does.

    The MPs voting on the deal should have seen it through the prism of neither party politics or leave/remain, but a simple function of passing the motion that respects the result of the referendum they agreed to be bound by
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Lol "Supreme Court" is trending on twitter about two seperate Supreme Courts.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    We still live in a party political system, Richard, and the parties aren't Leave and Remain. Labour wants to be in government and will do all it can to oppose the Conservatives. The Conservatives, meanwhile, couldn't appeal to the national interest because their own party were opposing the policy.

    Just because you have become swivel-eyed and see everything from immigration to what cheese is available at Tesco through the lens of leave or remain, doesn't mean that sane people everyone else does.

    The MPs voting on the deal should have seen it through the prism of neither party politics or leave/remain, but a simple function of passing the motion that respects the result of the referendum they agreed to be bound by
    So voting on an agreement that was negotiated and agreed purely in the interests of the Conservative Party should not be seen through the prism of party politics?

    Give it a rest.
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    isam said:

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    I don't think that stands up. Yes, some of the MPs who voted down May's deal were 'Remainers' wanting to reverse the referendum result, but the bulk of them were Labour MPs voting in accordance with a three-line whip. The principal motivations of the Labour leadership's position were to stuff the Tories and maintain what they thought was their electorally-advantageous ambiguity, not to reverse the referendum result.
    Yes, so politicians used the result of direct democracy to play party politics which results in the result being frustrated. What a bunch of jokers
    I don't think that's fair, isam. Labour set out their negotiation aims in the 2017 manifesto (i.e. maintain the benefits of the CU and SM), and I think are in their rights to vote down a deal if they think it goes against them. Of course, whether one can enjoy the benefits of the CU and SM without being in them is another question, but people voted for them with that policy in their manifesto. Not exactly their fault May lost her majority.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    Some whispers about a further big defection at the LD conference this afternoon, but would be odd to announce that alongside the leader's speech.

    So not sure if it's Red Alert or Green Alert or somewhere between the two. Or nothing at all.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    On topic, I begged Hillary Benn to include a one line clause in his bill banning Mike from taking foreign holidays.

    That would be difficult while we are still in the EU and have freedom of movement.
    Take back control.....
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    edited September 2019
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Yes.

    The ERG gave cover to any Lab waverers who could rightly ask why they should support the deal when the PM couldn't even convince her own party to do so.

    For the 1,000th time.

    The fact that Remainers were looking for an excuse to ignore the referendum result and were able to use the ERG lunatics for that end says everything we ned to know about Europhiles and their respect for democracy. Not only are they anti-democracy, they are cowards as well, looking for someone else to hide behind to excuse their despicable behaviour.
    We still live in a party political system, Richard, and the parties aren't Leave and Remain. Labour wants to be in government and will do all it can to oppose the Conservatives. The Conservatives, meanwhile, couldn't appeal to the national interest because their own party were opposing the policy.

    Just because you have become swivel-eyed and see everything from immigration to what cheese is available at Tesco through the lens of leave or remain, doesn't mean that sane people everyone else does.

    The MPs voting on the deal should have seen it through the prism of neither party politics or leave/remain, but a simple function of passing the motion that respects the result of the referendum they agreed to be bound by
    For Labour it was the wrong type of Brexit deal and they wouldn't have started from there. Hence it was their duty to try to achieve the right type of Brexit, ie a Labour Brexit.

    That is the political system we work within. That you and Richard T seem to believe that somehow party politics would be suspended is curious, tbh, given that you are both long-time contributors to a politics discussion board.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tpfkar said:

    Some whispers about a further big defection at the LD conference this afternoon, but would be odd to announce that alongside the leader's speech.

    So not sure if it's Red Alert or Green Alert or somewhere between the two. Or nothing at all.

    Heidi allen
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    tpfkar said:

    Mr. Gate, disagree, if Labour go for a second referendum.

    Pro-EU types who like the idea of actually having a referendum to decide things (requiring 50%+ of voters) rather than a General Election victory (35% or less in some cases) and wanting to try and seal the deal rather than get a short-lived, Pyrrhic victory may very well prefer a referendum.

    In the best case scenario, the Lib Dems get votes they would've gotten anyway if they'd stuck with their referendum policy.

    And to make things even better, they're very, very unlikely to get a majority anyway. So they've almost certainly lost votes for nothing.

    Recently, the yellows have been doing very well, but this is a strategic mistake, and an entirely unnecessary one, I think.

    The Lib Dems are just trying to maximise their vote. The ideal situation would be Corbyn minority administration dependent on Lib Dem votes to ensure he goes through with his referendum promise.

    Could it be a mistake? Possibly. But they have nothing to lose.
    Not quite - I think the ideal is a *Labour* minority administration with the LDs providing confidence and supply on the condition that Corbyn is dumped for a competent leader who can be trusted on Brexit.
    Why should Labour accept that ? In reality, what choice would the Lib Dems have other than sacrificing the People's Vote.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,431
    isam said:

    Selebian said:

    isam said:


    The Remainers in parliament are making almost impossible to leave (voting down every deal/making no deal illegal) then pointing at the quagmire and saying ‘look how difficult it is, shall we just stay?’

    Interesting that we had a couple of people recently posting that they were denied a good broadband deal with Virgin, then when they walked away, they were offered the best deal available.

    The difficulty, to pursue that analogy, is that Brexiteers seem to consider a good deal to be continuing to receive their original broadband service, cease paying for it, cease obeying Virgin's terms and conditions and no longer permit other people to access the same cables.

    Anyone managed to do that deal with Virgin?
    I thought the people talking about their virgin deals were making that analogy, it wasn’t mine.

    Although I do think ruling out no deal weakens our hand, and makes it easy for those who want to remain at all costs to effectively fix the deck as Deal vs remain in parliament. The honest thing to do is just vote for the deal.
    Fair enough.

    Re parlaiment, yes, honesty would be nice. But most Tory remainers backed the WA, it failed because of Labour (and other opposition votes) and the ERG, who supposedly want Brexit but failed multiple times to vote for it.

    Would most Labour MPs, as they/leadership would claim, have voted for a WA including a permanent customs union? I guess we'll never know until/unless we get to the point of voting on that.

    LD and SNP have been pretty honest in their position that they oppose Brexit, I think.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    Mr. Gate, disagree, if Labour go for a second referendum.

    Pro-EU types who like the idea of actually having a referendum to decide things (requiring 50%+ of voters) rather than a General Election victory (35% or less in some cases) and wanting to try and seal the deal rather than get a short-lived, Pyrrhic victory may very well prefer a referendum.

    In the best case scenario, the Lib Dems get votes they would've gotten anyway if they'd stuck with their referendum policy.

    And to make things even better, they're very, very unlikely to get a majority anyway. So they've almost certainly lost votes for nothing.

    Recently, the yellows have been doing very well, but this is a strategic mistake, and an entirely unnecessary one, I think.

    With all due respect, MD, you do not seem very likely to consider voting for them anyway, so this is rather.... theoretical.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    tpfkar said:

    Mr. Gate, disagree, if Labour go for a second referendum.

    Pro-EU types who like the idea of actually having a referendum to decide things (requiring 50%+ of voters) rather than a General Election victory (35% or less in some cases) and wanting to try and seal the deal rather than get a short-lived, Pyrrhic victory may very well prefer a referendum.

    In the best case scenario, the Lib Dems get votes they would've gotten anyway if they'd stuck with their referendum policy.

    And to make things even better, they're very, very unlikely to get a majority anyway. So they've almost certainly lost votes for nothing.

    Recently, the yellows have been doing very well, but this is a strategic mistake, and an entirely unnecessary one, I think.

    The Lib Dems are just trying to maximise their vote. The ideal situation would be Corbyn minority administration dependent on Lib Dem votes to ensure he goes through with his referendum promise.

    Could it be a mistake? Possibly. But they have nothing to lose.
    Not quite - I think the ideal is a *Labour* minority administration with the LDs providing confidence and supply on the condition that Corbyn is dumped for a competent leader who can be trusted on Brexit.
    Pipe dream. Labour will have to dump the entire hard left infrastructure put in place behind Corbyn, to prove acceptable to the LibDems.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1173937316324360193?s=19

    Unpopular perhaps this may be, the figures tell their own tale (according to this pollster)
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    isam said:

    .

    Byronic said:

    Look at Scotland. Has Sindy been killed off by its defeat in 2016? No. It is very much a live topic. Personally I think Sindyref2 won't happen, but there are millions of Scots who want it to happen, this afternoon. They haven't been silenced by loss.

    The same will happen to Brexit. If it is annulled, we will be like Scotland times ten. The issue will convulse our politics. The subject will never go away. The Tories will become an outright Brexit party, and, as Gabs2 points out, thanks to the insane Lib Dem Revoke policy, there will be huge pressure on the Tory leadership to have a vote-for-us-we-leave commitment, without a referendum (and why bother having a referendum, anyway, if they can just be ignored?)

    The only way to avoid this terrible fate, for the whole country, is for MPs and Remainers to shut the fuck up, and sign up to a deal, any deal.

    Signing up to a deal only makes things worse now.

    For one thing we would then have to start negotiating the real deal, the final deal, not the transitional arrangements and the settling of existing liabilities. Where's the consensus on what that should look like? We would be signing up to debate Brexit for years to come.

    More importantly, any deal will be passed with the votes of Remainer MPs, with pure-of-heart Leaver MPs voting against. Anything bad that happens will be blamed on the quisling traitors who sold the country down the river.

    We can only start to make things better by correcting the original mistake - holding a referendum that proposed a change the government was opposed to. That means we have to revoke.
    The status quo is that a referendum proposed a change that the current government is in favour of, so what’s the problem?
    The current government has a majority of minus forty-something.
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    Mr. Carnyx, quite. There are some differences (status quo versus radical change, and outright majority in the UK Parliament versus maximum of under 60 seats) but it's obvious that the SNP et al will make play of that.

    Mr. Gate, I agree their aim is to maximise their vote but I think this strategy fails on even that. Who is going to vote Lib Dem because of this shift who wasn't already voting for them anyway?

    And who've they lost? Those who think with more clarity. Not only is it a good precedent that drastic change (or reversal of said change) requires a referendum, it's far easier to win than it is to get a Lib Dem majority.

    What if you're a pro-UK, pro-EU Scot? The Lib Dems are unlikely to win a majority but if they do, is this the sort of politics you want?

    And I return to the major point: the Lib Dems are very unlikely to get a majority. So the real world implication of this isn't implementation of their self-absorbed policy shift, it's ramping up the idea that elections can override referendum results.

    It's foolish.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    I note Lord Reed has brought up the why hasn't the opposition attempted to VONC Johnson if they're so appalled by his actions point.
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    Mr. B, the joy of politics is that we get to have opinions about things that do and do not affect us personally.

    If Corbyn were replaced by someone rubbish but not full-blown far left, and the PM remains as he is, there's an off-chance I might throw a vote towards the Lib Dems. It's unlikely, I grant you.
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    If we'd had the promised referendum on Lisbon then things would be very different. But Brown and the Lib Dems determined that manifesto pledges should be tossed overboard and the electorate shouldn't have a say.

    The seeds of discontent were planted by such duplicitous acts as this.

    Blair not Brown.
    It was Brown who signed the thing
    It was Blair who decided that following the downgrading of the treaty after the French and Dutch referendums, it was no longer relevant. By all means, disagree with the decision if you wish but Blair was PM when it was taken.
    Brown could have reversed the decision. It was he who slunk in through the back door to sign it.
    Boris could have abolished the OBR. So could Theresa May. That does not mean that either of them created it.
This discussion has been closed.