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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen
When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory.
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1) Generally things don't happen, and when they do happen they're not the things that you expected to happen
2) The EU has never yet seen a can and failed to kick it
3) Boris Johnson is full of shit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....
Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/17/israel-election-voters-head-to-the-polls-for-second-time-this-year
I doubt we’ll get the ruling today.....unless it’s a lot more clear cut than commentators believe....
However, you can watch it here:
https://twitter.com/UKSupremeCourt/status/1173657133193342976?s=20
Edit - we definitely won’t get a decision today - they are hearing submissions until Thursday
https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/timetable-of-proceedings.html
Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.
Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
Thirdly, the claim is both academic, and untenable on the facts. Under the terms of s.3 of NIEFA and the Order in Council, Parliament was able to sit after the summer recess until 9 September 2019 and will be able to sit on and after 14 October 2019. Parliament was, and will be able to use that time for any purpose, including legislating at pace, if it wishes. Recent events could not more graphically illustrate that fact: the new Act was introduced, considered and enacted by Parliament before the prorogation even began; and it could have legislated, but did not legislate, to ensure that Parliament continued to sit during the prorogation if that had been Parliament’s wish.
https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-the-prime-minister-and-advocate-general-for-scotland.pdf
Bozo is taking the clown car off the cliff, hoping his balloons can save him.
Who'll be the Judge? Hmm.
The Prime Minister will be a sea of political composure and thoughtful dignity. Jezza will praise Israel as a bastion of democracy in the Middle East and Jo Swinson will agree with Nigel Farage a coupon election agreement. Nicola Sturgeon, Arlene Foster and @HYUFD will decamp to a gender neutral silent order - a Nun-Astery.
All will be well until OHG alights his holiday taxi to Luxembourg on (insert date). For now close you eyes, take a deep breath of calming air and enjoy.
It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.
UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
Mainly the Americans but also the British were overseeing the process, and probably doing a bit of steering in the background, to make sure that a sensible constitution was forthcoming.
Can we get the Gnats on the list?
How do you deal with Independents?
Lib Dems would probably go for it as it would generate more Lib Dems.
If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.
Guess everyone is back to work now.
MPs aren't trying to screw gamers. Lootboxes are gambling and companies that market them to kids and the FIFA model of wiping the slate clean every year is wretched.
On-topic: indeed, another interesting month to come.
https://twitter.com/rodvik/status/1173773194689273857
*) If you go to the right (wrong?) places on t'Internet, many die-hard Musk worshippers think he was bang out of order on this. It has hurt brand Elon a little bit.
*) However, a hardcore group still think Musk's claims were true (because... reasons), and even repeat them in their defence of him. I do wonder if this behaviour will be raised in court as evidence of the harm done to Unsworth's reputation. BTW, these are not all obvious trolls; some are people who have been commenting for a long time.
*) Musk's being a (censored). He'd have been better off apologising (honestly, without repeating the accusation), and paying a little money to both Unsworth and cave rescue groups. He can afford it, and the latter might have offset some of the bad publicity.
*) It doesn't bode well for his companies. His attitude has set the corporate cultures of both Tesla and SpaceX, and this is the sort of thing we are seeing already. As examples, in SpaceX's case, blaming a supplier for a failed part that led to a rocket explosion, when NASA say it was SpaceX's fault (again, the supplier is still blamed by many fans). In Tesla's case, their automatic blaming of drivers for autopilot failures.
I have yet to see it. I have seen a very firm "I will not ask for an extension", but that is all.
It’s happened so quickly.
He could still pull off a deal but only if Europe agree to do him a favour. I’m not sure why they would.
A bit of expectation management wouldn't go amiss.
https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/index.html
The timing off the book seems all wrong too, far too much has happened and he left ito too late for most people to bother reading it so I suspect it will go the way of Gordon browns book and be a total flop.. Deservingly so
The bar looks higher in the US courts compared to the British ones to me. With regards space, I think he's going to get some version of Starship up before SLS. NASA is an organisation that's completely lost its way when it comes to rockets.
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1173843727472717825?s=20
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1173845119646068736?s=20
The case deals with the actions of the government before prorogation , did the PM attempt to restrict MPs scrutiny by a 5 week prorogation. What justification was there for that length .
That setup could limit eg Greens to one MP rather than 4% from 650 - depending on the detail of the system.
This is one aspect with which the Germans are still tinkering.
However, I'd argue that the James Webb mess is the place where NASA (and Northrop Grumman) are utterly failing. This is the stuff they should be good at. But it's too grand, and perhaps with hindsight too much of a technological push given current launch capabilities.
What Congress (and NASA) are missing is an overall objective, something to aim for. Some presidents have had grand plans for space (e.g. Bush 1's Space Exploration Initiative in 1989 to the Moon and Mars), but Congress invariably fails to fund them. Instead, too much of NASA's funding is being spent on make-work projects for NASA divisions, rather than steaming on towards a destination.
Having said that, a revoke backed by two or more parties representing over 50% of the electorate would without doubt be preferable to a Lib Dem solo effort (in the highly unlikely circumstance of their scraping a majority with 35% of the vote.)
(Sorry, seven year olds.)
If there is a 50/50 system of FPTP and Proportional then in Germany at least, yes you can win one seat and get your 4% allocation in the Bundestag.
However, there are half the number of constituencies, as the another half is topped up by PR. It is much harder for a small party to win a directly elected seat, in part because the constituencies are larger, and the PR aspect means there is less interest in tactical voting. Outside of Berlin almost all directly elected MPs are Union or SPD.
As an example, the FDP are a well established party and had a presence in the Bundestag from 1949 until 2013 when they dropped under 5%. As far as I know there is only one time when A party with under 5% won a seat, that being the PDS (follow up to the East German SED) in the first Election after the reunion.
I like Buttigieg. A breath of fresh air.
Dignity would be good.
If Harris is not even in the top tier in Georgia she is done.
It looks like a Biden v Warren v Sanders battle now
Also the Germans are not tinkering with this.
What they tinker with is how they fit the PR and the Direct seats together so that it is fair at both state and federal level, which is a much more minor aspect.
https://twitter.com/paulgoodmanch/status/1173854653899034625?s=21
It should be remembered that many SpaceX fans castigate NASA for putting roadblocks in the way of the crewed Dragon 2 capsule's flight - despite the fact that NASA are paying for it, and Boeing's Starliner is being similarly 'hurt'.
However, given the two rocket explosions SpaceX have suffered, and the Dragon 2 explosion earlier this year, perhaps NASA's hesitancy was justified. The lessons learnt mean that the first crewed launch will be much safer.