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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics a

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Possibly nothing will happen because the big decisions will have been made by then. I'd not be backing a serving prime minister being imprisoned, though, however tempted the justices might be.
  • I think nothing will happen. I think this because:

    1) Generally things don't happen, and when they do happen they're not the things that you expected to happen
    2) The EU has never yet seen a can and failed to kick it
    3) Boris Johnson is full of shit
  • In Blow to Taiwan, Solomon Islands Is Said to Switch Relations to China https://nyti.ms/34GpJnE
  • Petrol price increases are often bad for governments, so Boris will be hoping the Saudi fire brigade can do its stuff before halloween.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    Yeah.....”pedo guy” doesn’t mean “paedophile”......

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-17/elon-musk-says-he-did-not-intend-to-accuse-british-diver-of-being-a-paedophile/

    Surprised the damages claim is so modest ($75k).

    Ah, I see instead of going with the desperate tactic of the 'I'm stupid' defence, Musk is going for the 'you're stupid if you believe me' defence. His explanation is so I convincing given he specifically mentioned as a question why someone would be an ex pat there.

    OT MPs trying to fuck with gamers, this won't end well for them

    https://twitter.com/rodvik/status/1173773193250664448

    Loot boxes and other such money gouging is bullshit though.

    In Blow to Taiwan, Solomon Islands Is Said to Switch Relations to China https://nyti.ms/34GpJnE

    Is anyone left?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    I think nothing will happen. I think this because:

    1) Generally things don't happen, and when they do happen they're not the things that you expected to happen
    2) The EU has never yet seen a can and failed to kick it
    3) Boris Johnson is full of shit

    Point two is particularly relevant, and as members of the EU (now and forever?) we seem to be doing our best to match that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    I'd like to see a speech about political intentions where they say they intend to celebrate on day 1 and do x on day 2 instead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    Be interesting if they were short of a majority but clearly the largest party. Would their pledge extend to a Liberal Democrat led government not just a Liberal Democrat government?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    edited September 2019
    All this is without today’s hyped ruling by the Supreme Court on the legality of the prorogation.

    I doubt we’ll get the ruling today.....unless it’s a lot more clear cut than commentators believe....

    However, you can watch it here:

    https://twitter.com/UKSupremeCourt/status/1173657133193342976?s=20

    Edit - we definitely won’t get a decision today - they are hearing submissions until Thursday

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/timetable-of-proceedings.html
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    edited September 2019
    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
  • All this is without today’s hyped ruling by the Supreme Court on the legality of the prorogation.

    I doubt we’ll get the ruling today.....unless it’s a lot more clear cut than commentators believe....

    However, you can watch it here:

    https://twitter.com/UKSupremeCourt/status/1173657133193342976?s=20

    Edit - we definitely won’t get a decision today - they are hearing submissions until Thursday

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/timetable-of-proceedings.html

    Indeed. Three days has been set aside for the hearing so it will be pushing it to get a decision this week
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    Be interesting if they were short of a majority but clearly the largest party. Would their pledge extend to a Liberal Democrat led government not just a Liberal Democrat government?
    Bridge. Cross. Get There!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    Weren't the British instrumental in writing the (West) German constitution?
  • The government submission to the Supreme Court - doesn’t pull many punches when it comes to the Scottish decision - and makes the point:

    Thirdly, the claim is both academic, and untenable on the facts. Under the terms of s.3 of NIEFA and the Order in Council, Parliament was able to sit after the summer recess until 9 September 2019 and will be able to sit on and after 14 October 2019. Parliament was, and will be able to use that time for any purpose, including legislating at pace, if it wishes. Recent events could not more graphically illustrate that fact: the new Act was introduced, considered and enacted by Parliament before the prorogation even began; and it could have legislated, but did not legislate, to ensure that Parliament continued to sit during the prorogation if that had been Parliament’s wish.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-the-prime-minister-and-advocate-general-for-scotland.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    No Deal on Halloween imo.

    Bozo is taking the clown car off the cliff, hoping his balloons can save him.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited September 2019

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    Weren't the British instrumental in writing the (West) German constitution?
    Indeed. We clearly need to be invaded by our own army, lock up the politicians, then start from scratch with the insane ones removed.

    Who'll be the Judge? Hmm.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    Weren't the British instrumental in writing the (West) German constitution?
    The one which says NO FUCKING REFERENDUMS?
  • The government submission to the Supreme Court - doesn’t pull many punches when it comes to the Scottish decision - and makes the point:

    Thirdly, the claim is both academic, and untenable on the facts. Under the terms of s.3 of NIEFA and the Order in Council, Parliament was able to sit after the summer recess until 9 September 2019 and will be able to sit on and after 14 October 2019. Parliament was, and will be able to use that time for any purpose, including legislating at pace, if it wishes. Recent events could not more graphically illustrate that fact: the new Act was introduced, considered and enacted by Parliament before the prorogation even began; and it could have legislated, but did not legislate, to ensure that Parliament continued to sit during the prorogation if that had been Parliament’s wish.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-the-prime-minister-and-advocate-general-for-scotland.pdf

    How could Parliament have legislated to sit during prorogation?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Now Mike Smithson is back in the saddle we can all relax :

    The Prime Minister will be a sea of political composure and thoughtful dignity. Jezza will praise Israel as a bastion of democracy in the Middle East and Jo Swinson will agree with Nigel Farage a coupon election agreement. Nicola Sturgeon, Arlene Foster and @HYUFD will decamp to a gender neutral silent order - a Nun-Astery.

    All will be well until OHG alights his holiday taxi to Luxembourg on (insert date). For now close you eyes, take a deep breath of calming air and enjoy.
  • kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    Weren't the British instrumental in writing the (West) German constitution?
    This is not true. The German Grundgesetz (constituion) was written entirely by West Germans, and by the by Germany is celebrating the 50th Birthday of the Grundgesetz this year.

    Mainly the Americans but also the British were overseeing the process, and probably doing a bit of steering in the background, to make sure that a sensible constitution was forthcoming.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    Weren't the British instrumental in writing the (West) German constitution?
    The one which says NO FUCKING REFERENDUMS?
    Not read it in detail, but reasonably sure the F word isn't in it!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    Weren't the British instrumental in writing the (West) German constitution?
    The one which says NO FUCKING REFERENDUMS?
    ... at the federal level.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited September 2019

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
    That's the Greens fooked, then :-o, and possibly Plaid. UKIP gone also.

    Can we get the Gnats on the list?

    How do you deal with Independents?

    Lib Dems would probably go for it as it would generate more Lib Dems.
  • He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.
  • Bloody busy on the trains this morning.

    Guess everyone is back to work now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    My guess is that there will be dunking for apples and some slightly naff costumes. Oh and the kids will dress up too. I'll probably be told that the skeleton went to the dance on his own because he had no body to go with again.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    MPs aren't trying to screw gamers. Lootboxes are gambling and companies that market them to kids and the FIFA model of wiping the slate clean every year is wretched.

    On-topic: indeed, another interesting month to come.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited September 2019
    kle4 said:

    Yeah.....”pedo guy” doesn’t mean “paedophile”......

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-17/elon-musk-says-he-did-not-intend-to-accuse-british-diver-of-being-a-paedophile/

    Surprised the damages claim is so modest ($75k).

    Ah, I see instead of going with the desperate tactic of the 'I'm stupid' defence, Musk is going for the 'you're stupid if you believe me' defence. His explanation is so I convincing given he specifically mentioned as a question why someone would be an ex pat there.

    OT MPs trying to fuck with gamers, this won't end well for them

    https://twitter.com/rodvik/status/1173773193250664448

    Loot boxes and other such money gouging is bullshit though.

    In Blow to Taiwan, Solomon Islands Is Said to Switch Relations to China https://nyti.ms/34GpJnE

    Is anyone left?
    $75k is the minimum needed for a civil suit. I know this as a result of picking Antonio Brown in an NFL fantasy league with friends and following various stuff against him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
    STV please. It is already used in some UK elections, and maintains the constituency link.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    I'd like to see a speech about political intentions where they say they intend to celebrate on day 1 and do x on day 2 instead.
    And possibly even spend the sober part of day 1 thinking about who will hold what position in this somewhat unexpected and unlikely ministry.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    MPs aren't trying to screw gamers. Lootboxes are gambling and companies that market them to kids and the FIFA model of wiping the slate clean every year is wretched.

    On-topic: indeed, another interesting month to come.

    He's not talking about the lootboxes, which pretty much everyone agrees about. See the rest of the tweets, eg:

    https://twitter.com/rodvik/status/1173773194689273857
  • MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
    That's the Greens fooked, then :-o, and possibly Plaid. UKIP gone also.

    Can we get the Gnats on the list?

    How do you deal with Independents?

    Lib Dems would probably go for it as it would generate more Lib Dems.
    If you win a seat, the 5% threshold doesn't apply. It's either / or
  • He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Question - does anyone have a view how many Labour MPs might abstain on a VoNC in this scenario for fear of being seen to block Brexit? I would imagine very few given withdrawal of the whip etc but anyone else have a better view?
  • Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Yeah.....”pedo guy” doesn’t mean “paedophile”......

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-17/elon-musk-says-he-did-not-intend-to-accuse-british-diver-of-being-a-paedophile/

    Surprised the damages claim is so modest ($75k).

    Ah, I see instead of going with the desperate tactic of the 'I'm stupid' defence, Musk is going for the 'you're stupid if you believe me' defence. His explanation is so I convincing given he specifically mentioned as a question why someone would be an ex pat there.

    OT MPs trying to fuck with gamers, this won't end well for them

    https://twitter.com/rodvik/status/1173773193250664448

    Loot boxes and other such money gouging is bullshit though.

    In Blow to Taiwan, Solomon Islands Is Said to Switch Relations to China https://nyti.ms/34GpJnE

    Is anyone left?
    $75k is the minimum needed for a civil suit. I know this as a result of picking Antonio Brown in an NFL fantasy league with friends and following various stuff against him.
    There are some interesting aspects about this:

    *) If you go to the right (wrong?) places on t'Internet, many die-hard Musk worshippers think he was bang out of order on this. It has hurt brand Elon a little bit.

    *) However, a hardcore group still think Musk's claims were true (because... reasons), and even repeat them in their defence of him. I do wonder if this behaviour will be raised in court as evidence of the harm done to Unsworth's reputation. BTW, these are not all obvious trolls; some are people who have been commenting for a long time.

    *) Musk's being a (censored). He'd have been better off apologising (honestly, without repeating the accusation), and paying a little money to both Unsworth and cave rescue groups. He can afford it, and the latter might have offset some of the bad publicity.

    *) It doesn't bode well for his companies. His attitude has set the corporate cultures of both Tesla and SpaceX, and this is the sort of thing we are seeing already. As examples, in SpaceX's case, blaming a supplier for a failed part that led to a rocket explosion, when NASA say it was SpaceX's fault (again, the supplier is still blamed by many fans). In Tesla's case, their automatic blaming of drivers for autopilot failures.
  • Cameron needs a new PR guy. He comes across as a total twit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Where did Boris actually say he would "break the law"?

    I have yet to see it. I have seen a very firm "I will not ask for an extension", but that is all.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,858

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Question - does anyone have a view how many Labour MPs might abstain on a VoNC in this scenario for fear of being seen to block Brexit? I would imagine very few given withdrawal of the whip etc but anyone else have a better view?
    Very few, I think - we obviously have different views on Brexit in the party (like all parties except the BXP) but I think most members of all wings of the party would think that propping up the current Government was a deselectable action. The place to look for revolts is if Johnson comes back with a deal, however inadequate and half-baked. I think that there would be 30 or so Labour MPs who would support that in order to bring the current stage of agony to an end.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,858

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
    Denmark has a 2% threshold which works OK. But as others have said, it helps to have a reasonably amicable political atmosphere.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,858
    Ignorant question: I know the SC hearing is today, but are we expecting the decision today, or...?
  • MattW said:

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Where did Boris actually say he would "break the law"?

    I have yet to see it. I have seen a very firm "I will not ask for an extension", but that is all.
    Boris is a figure of fun and pity.
    It’s happened so quickly.

    He could still pull off a deal but only if Europe agree to do him a favour. I’m not sure why they would.
  • kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    I'd like to see a speech about political intentions where they say they intend to celebrate on day 1 and do x on day 2 instead.
    They seem to be already celebrating on day -X, presumably so that they're ready and fresh for day one of government.
    A bit of expectation management wouldn't go amiss.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    edited September 2019

    Ignorant question: I know the SC hearing is today, but are we expecting the decision today, or...?

    No - though it’s widely reported as such - details:

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/index.html
  • He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Just pondering here, but one way parliament might be able to pass a deal is if Boris resigns as PM and Gove or some other Tory takes over, and they take the extension and come back with a deal. I expect Labour would enjoy bigging up the Conservative Prime Minister, at the expense of and hopefully with the opposition of the Conservative Leader.
  • Cameron needs a new PR guy. He comes across as a total twit.
    He comes across as needy and lacking self awareness
  • MattW said:

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Where did Boris actually say he would "break the law"?

    I have yet to see it. I have seen a very firm "I will not ask for an extension", but that is all.
    Boris is a figure of fun and pity.
    It’s happened so quickly.

    He could still pull off a deal but only if Europe agree to do him a favour. I’m not sure why they would.
    I would imagine outside the swooning PB fanbois and the Tele, pity for BJ is somewhat muted.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426
    MattW said:

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Where did Boris actually say he would "break the law"?

    I have yet to see it. I have seen a very firm "I will not ask for an extension", but that is all.
    You are right, but on the other hand he has not said "I will not ask for an extension, unless compelled by law". I can not see him breaking the law, but I can see him doing some kind of last minute desperado get out act (such as sending someone else to ask for an extension).
  • MattW said:

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Where did Boris actually say he would "break the law"?

    I have yet to see it. I have seen a very firm "I will not ask for an extension", but that is all.
    Boris is a figure of fun and pity.
    It’s happened so quickly.

    He could still pull off a deal but only if Europe agree to do him a favour. I’m not sure why they would.
    I would imagine outside the swooning PB fanbois and the Tele, pity for BJ is somewhat muted.
    The press coverage of the Luxembourg stand-off was not the Splendid Isolation that pb’s more intense Leavers expected. Even the Telegraph majored on the humiliation.
  • He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Just pondering here, but one way parliament might be able to pass a deal is if Boris resigns as PM and Gove or some other Tory takes over, and they take the extension and come back with a deal. I expect Labour would enjoy bigging up the Conservative Prime Minister, at the expense of and hopefully with the opposition of the Conservative Leader.
    Yes, I wrote an article suggesting that very outcome on here Monday morning last week, and tipped Jeremy Hunt to be that person.
  • Cameron needs a new PR guy. He comes across as a total twit.
    He comes across as needy and lacking self awareness
    Agreed. I used to be a huge fan of Cameron, respecting and supporting him to the end but he has shown a different light to himself in recent days.. He just seems bitter and totally lacking in self awareness..

    The timing off the book seems all wrong too, far too much has happened and he left ito too late for most people to bother reading it so I suspect it will go the way of Gordon browns book and be a total flop.. Deservingly so
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Yeah.....”pedo guy” doesn’t mean “paedophile”......

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-17/elon-musk-says-he-did-not-intend-to-accuse-british-diver-of-being-a-paedophile/

    Surprised the damages claim is so modest ($75k).

    Ah, I see instead of going with the desperate tactic of the 'I'm stupid' defence, Musk is going for the 'you're stupid if you believe me' defence. His explanation is so I convincing given he specifically mentioned as a question why someone would be an ex pat there.

    OT MPs trying to fuck with gamers, this won't end well for them

    https://twitter.com/rodvik/status/1173773193250664448

    Loot boxes and other such money gouging is bullshit though.

    In Blow to Taiwan, Solomon Islands Is Said to Switch Relations to China https://nyti.ms/34GpJnE

    Is anyone left?
    $75k is the minimum needed for a civil suit. I know this as a result of picking Antonio Brown in an NFL fantasy league with friends and following various stuff against him.
    There are some interesting aspects about this:

    *) If you go to the right (wrong?) places on t'Internet, many die-hard Musk worshippers think he was bang out of order on this. It has hurt brand Elon a little bit.

    *) However, a hardcore group still think Musk's claims were true (because... reasons), and even repeat them in their defence of him. I do wonder if this behaviour will be raised in court as evidence of the harm done to Unsworth's reputation. BTW, these are not all obvious trolls; some are people who have been commenting for a long time.

    *) Musk's being a (censored). He'd have been better off apologising (honestly, without repeating the accusation), and paying a little money to both Unsworth and cave rescue groups. He can afford it, and the latter might have offset some of the bad publicity.

    *) It doesn't bode well for his companies. His attitude has set the corporate cultures of both Tesla and SpaceX, and this is the sort of thing we are seeing already. As examples, in SpaceX's case, blaming a supplier for a failed part that led to a rocket explosion, when NASA say it was SpaceX's fault (again, the supplier is still blamed by many fans). In Tesla's case, their automatic blaming of drivers for autopilot failures.
    He's completely wrong on this, but
    The bar looks higher in the US courts compared to the British ones to me. With regards space, I think he's going to get some version of Starship up before SLS. NASA is an organisation that's completely lost its way when it comes to rockets.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328

    Ignorant question: I know the SC hearing is today, but are we expecting the decision today, or...?

    3 days of hearing, decision probably next week.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Just pondering here, but one way parliament might be able to pass a deal is if Boris resigns as PM and Gove or some other Tory takes over, and they take the extension and come back with a deal. I expect Labour would enjoy bigging up the Conservative Prime Minister, at the expense of and hopefully with the opposition of the Conservative Leader.
    Do you mean Johnson remains as leader of the Conservatives but Gove is given the Prime Ministership? I can't see this happening. Johnson is interested in PM not in being "Party Figurehead".
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    The government submission to the Supreme Court - doesn’t pull many punches when it comes to the Scottish decision - and makes the point:

    Thirdly, the claim is both academic, and untenable on the facts. Under the terms of s.3 of NIEFA and the Order in Council, Parliament was able to sit after the summer recess until 9 September 2019 and will be able to sit on and after 14 October 2019. Parliament was, and will be able to use that time for any purpose, including legislating at pace, if it wishes. Recent events could not more graphically illustrate that fact: the new Act was introduced, considered and enacted by Parliament before the prorogation even began; and it could have legislated, but did not legislate, to ensure that Parliament continued to sit during the prorogation if that had been Parliament’s wish.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-the-prime-minister-and-advocate-general-for-scotland.pdf

    That’s largely irrelevant to the case the fact they could have found a way to sit . The court can’t assume a future situation would have a Speaker like Bercow , equally MPs were more worried about no deal and anyway had to choose what was most important , legislate for that or the prorogation.

    The case deals with the actions of the government before prorogation , did the PM attempt to restrict MPs scrutiny by a 5 week prorogation. What justification was there for that length .

  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited September 2019

    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
    That's the Greens fooked, then :-o, and possibly Plaid. UKIP gone also.

    Can we get the Gnats on the list?

    How do you deal with Independents?

    Lib Dems would probably go for it as it would generate more Lib Dems.
    If you win a seat, the 5% threshold doesn't apply. It's either / or
    Not my specialist subject, but I think that in (eg) Germany, if you get one directly elected MP and (say) 4% of the vote (ie below the threshold), you only get your one MP and not the other x MPs from your list.

    That setup could limit eg Greens to one MP rather than 4% from 650 - depending on the detail of the system.

    This is one aspect with which the Germans are still tinkering.
  • Is Bercow resigning his seat post Speakership? Or staying as an MP? If the latter what odds he joins the Lib Dems?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767

    Bloody busy on the trains this morning.

    Guess everyone is back to work now.

    Fire at Rayners Park; my train is going via Staines upon Thames.
  • Pulpstar said:

    He's completely wrong on this, but
    The bar looks higher in the US courts compared to the British ones to me. With regards space, I think he's going to get some version of Starship up before SLS. NASA is an organisation that's completely lost its way when it comes to rockets.

    NASA is doing exactly what Congress is telling it to do. If Congress gave NASA a saner set of things to do, then I have no doubt that NASA would do it excellently.

    However, I'd argue that the James Webb mess is the place where NASA (and Northrop Grumman) are utterly failing. This is the stuff they should be good at. But it's too grand, and perhaps with hindsight too much of a technological push given current launch capabilities.

    What Congress (and NASA) are missing is an overall objective, something to aim for. Some presidents have had grand plans for space (e.g. Bush 1's Space Exploration Initiative in 1989 to the Moon and Mars), but Congress invariably fails to fund them. Instead, too much of NASA's funding is being spent on make-work projects for NASA divisions, rather than steaming on towards a destination.
  • Mr. Tokyo, cheers for adding that (as you correctly surmised, I hadn't seen it).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033

    Ignorant question: I know the SC hearing is today, but are we expecting the decision today, or...?

    Three day hearing, and then presumably thinking time after that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    2020 Georgia Democratic Primary:
    Biden 33%
    Warren 22%
    Sanders 17%
    Buttigieg 7%
    Harris 7%
    O'Rourke 3%
    Yang 3%
    Booker 2%
    Gabbard 2%
    Williamson 2%
    Castro 1%
    Klobuchar 1%
    Steyer 0%
    Messam 0%
    Bennet 0%
    Delaney 0%
    Bullock 0%@ChangePolls 9/7-11https://t.co/xIFQT9Z01j

    — Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 16, 2019
    Buttigieg level with Harris in GA. Good for him, less so for her
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    The government submission to the Supreme Court - doesn’t pull many punches when it comes to the Scottish decision - and makes the point:

    Thirdly, the claim is both academic, and untenable on the facts. Under the terms of s.3 of NIEFA and the Order in Council, Parliament was able to sit after the summer recess until 9 September 2019 and will be able to sit on and after 14 October 2019. Parliament was, and will be able to use that time for any purpose, including legislating at pace, if it wishes. Recent events could not more graphically illustrate that fact: the new Act was introduced, considered and enacted by Parliament before the prorogation even began; and it could have legislated, but did not legislate, to ensure that Parliament continued to sit during the prorogation if that had been Parliament’s wish.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-the-prime-minister-and-advocate-general-for-scotland.pdf

    How is that supposed to be relevant to the question of whether prorogation is lawful?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited September 2019
    Jonh Humphry's gets more patronising by the day. Is there no limit to the BBC's obligations to their long servers? I wonder how many intelligent EU commentators it will take before we'll believe them that Johnson is not negotiating in any way whatsoever. He's just playing the fool?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    Be interesting if they were short of a majority but clearly the largest party. Would their pledge extend to a Liberal Democrat led government not just a Liberal Democrat government?
    How could it, given that they would be dependent on the cooperation of other parties ?

    Having said that, a revoke backed by two or more parties representing over 50% of the electorate would without doubt be preferable to a Lib Dem solo effort (in the highly unlikely circumstance of their scraping a majority with 35% of the vote.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Fascinating that Corbyn intends to do away with General Elections
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,591
    Pulpstar said:
    You can have a Queen’s Speech within 1 day. You don’t need a 6 week gap, or whatever.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    Cameron needs a new PR guy. He comes across as a total twit.
    He's coming across as a seven year old twat.

    (Sorry, seven year olds.)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426

    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
    That's the Greens fooked, then :-o, and possibly Plaid. UKIP gone also.

    Can we get the Gnats on the list?

    How do you deal with Independents?

    Lib Dems would probably go for it as it would generate more Lib Dems.
    If you win a seat, the 5% threshold doesn't apply. It's either / or
    If there is a full PR system with threshold then there is no other way to win a seat.

    If there is a 50/50 system of FPTP and Proportional then in Germany at least, yes you can win one seat and get your 4% allocation in the Bundestag.
    However, there are half the number of constituencies, as the another half is topped up by PR. It is much harder for a small party to win a directly elected seat, in part because the constituencies are larger, and the PR aspect means there is less interest in tactical voting. Outside of Berlin almost all directly elected MPs are Union or SPD.

    As an example, the FDP are a well established party and had a presence in the Bundestag from 1949 until 2013 when they dropped under 5%. As far as I know there is only one time when A party with under 5% won a seat, that being the PDS (follow up to the East German SED) in the first Election after the reunion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Pulpstar said:
    You can have a Queen’s Speech within 1 day. You don’t need a 6 week gap, or whatever.
    Parliament still needs to be shut down for a GE or Queens Speech...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,591
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    Be interesting if they were short of a majority but clearly the largest party. Would their pledge extend to a Liberal Democrat led government not just a Liberal Democrat government?
    How could it, given that they would be dependent on the cooperation of other parties ?

    Having said that, a revoke backed by two or more parties representing over 50% of the electorate would without doubt be preferable to a Lib Dem solo effort (in the highly unlikely circumstance of their scraping a majority with 35% of the vote.)
    The very fact people are even discussing the Lib Dems winning a majority means this policy is working as intended.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426
    Pulpstar said:

    Fascinating that Corbyn intends to do away with General Elections

    Eh, John Major waited until the last minute for the 92 election. Was that "Doing away with general elections"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284

    Pulpstar said:

    He's completely wrong on this, but
    The bar looks higher in the US courts compared to the British ones to me. With regards space, I think he's going to get some version of Starship up before SLS. NASA is an organisation that's completely lost its way when it comes to rockets.

    NASA is doing exactly what Congress is telling it to do. If Congress gave NASA a saner set of things to do, then I have no doubt that NASA would do it excellently.

    However, I'd argue that the James Webb mess is the place where NASA (and Northrop Grumman) are utterly failing. This is the stuff they should be good at. But it's too grand, and perhaps with hindsight too much of a technological push given current launch capabilities.

    What Congress (and NASA) are missing is an overall objective, something to aim for. Some presidents have had grand plans for space (e.g. Bush 1's Space Exploration Initiative in 1989 to the Moon and Mars), but Congress invariably fails to fund them. Instead, too much of NASA's funding is being spent on make-work projects for NASA divisions, rather than steaming on towards a destination.
    I think the days of NASA developing its own launch systems are nearly over, as they simply cannot provide the economies of scale a commercial operator like SpaceX has proved possible. Nor can they take the kind of move fast and make mistakes culture possible in the private sector; that is simply the nature of public organisations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,284
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    You can have a Queen’s Speech within 1 day. You don’t need a 6 week gap, or whatever.
    Parliament still needs to be shut down for a GE or Queens Speech...
    Of course - which is, or should be, the purpose of prorogation.
  • tlg86 said:

    Bloody busy on the trains this morning.

    Guess everyone is back to work now.

    Fire at Rayners Park; my train is going via Staines upon Thames.
    Thanks.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Pulpstar said:

    2020 Georgia Democratic Primary:
    Biden 33%
    Warren 22%
    Sanders 17%
    Buttigieg 7%
    Harris 7%
    O'Rourke 3%
    Yang 3%
    Booker 2%
    Gabbard 2%
    Williamson 2%
    Castro 1%
    Klobuchar 1%
    Steyer 0%
    Messam 0%
    Bennet 0%
    Delaney 0%
    Bullock 0%@ChangePolls 9/7-11https://t.co/xIFQT9Z01j

    — Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 16, 2019
    Buttigieg level with Harris in GA. Good for him, less so for her

    I like Buttigieg. A breath of fresh air.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    If a revised version of the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop has not been agreed with the EU by the end of the EU council in mid October and passed by the Commons, then I suspect Boris will resign as PM and take the Tories into opposition as a last resort and let someone else become PM to extend.
  • Cameron needs a new PR guy. He comes across as a total twit.
    He's coming across as a seven year old twat.

    (Sorry, seven year olds.)
    I like Dave, and so far the extracts I’ve seen from his autobiography show the very worst of himself.

    Dignity would be good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    Pulpstar said:

    2020 Georgia Democratic Primary:
    Biden 33%
    Warren 22%
    Sanders 17%
    Buttigieg 7%
    Harris 7%
    O'Rourke 3%
    Yang 3%
    Booker 2%
    Gabbard 2%
    Williamson 2%
    Castro 1%
    Klobuchar 1%
    Steyer 0%
    Messam 0%
    Bennet 0%
    Delaney 0%
    Bullock 0%@ChangePolls 9/7-11https://t.co/xIFQT9Z01j

    — Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 16, 2019
    Buttigieg level with Harris in GA. Good for him, less so for her

    If Harris is not even in the top tier in Georgia she is done.

    It looks like a Biden v Warren v Sanders battle now
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,446
    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    Talk about deluded halfwits
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461

    MattW said:

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Where did Boris actually say he would "break the law"?

    I have yet to see it. I have seen a very firm "I will not ask for an extension", but that is all.
    Boris is a figure of fun and pity.
    It’s happened so quickly.

    He could still pull off a deal but only if Europe agree to do him a favour. I’m not sure why they would.
    I would imagine outside the swooning PB fanbois and the Tele, pity for BJ is somewhat muted.
    The press coverage of the Luxembourg stand-off was not the Splendid Isolation that pb’s more intense Leavers expected. Even the Telegraph majored on the humiliation.
    My Brother who lives in Holland is visiting at the moment. Unlike the French who seem vaguely disinterested the Dutch apparently are gripped. Every twist and turn reported endlessly. If the Luxembourgers see Johnson as a bit of an oaf that is as nothing compared to the view from Amsterdam.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465

    The government submission to the Supreme Court - doesn’t pull many punches when it comes to the Scottish decision - and makes the point:

    Thirdly, the claim is both academic, and untenable on the facts. Under the terms of s.3 of NIEFA and the Order in Council, Parliament was able to sit after the summer recess until 9 September 2019 and will be able to sit on and after 14 October 2019. Parliament was, and will be able to use that time for any purpose, including legislating at pace, if it wishes. Recent events could not more graphically illustrate that fact: the new Act was introduced, considered and enacted by Parliament before the prorogation even began; and it could have legislated, but did not legislate, to ensure that Parliament continued to sit during the prorogation if that had been Parliament’s wish.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-the-prime-minister-and-advocate-general-for-scotland.pdf

    The point was that they attempted to stymie parliament not that they successfully did so.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the BBC write on the second Israeli election this year claims theres likely no easy route to the premiership for anybody this time either.

    Never go full PR I guess, the pure stuff is too strong.

    The Israeli threshold is far too low (3%).

    Norway and Sweden function well with a 4% threshold, but probably because they are naturally fantastic diplomats, and cross-party cooperation is popular and deeply rooted in society. But such a low threshold would not work in a bitterly split, aggressive environment like the Yookay.

    Germany and others probably got it right with 5% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_threshold
    NZ has a 5% threshold.
    It has mostly worked well in preventing capture by crackpots.

    UK as a unitary state with federal tendencies would probably need sub-thresholds at a national level, ie a party needs either 5% nationally, or 10% in any of the four nations.
    That's the Greens fooked, then :-o, and possibly Plaid. UKIP gone also.

    Can we get the Gnats on the list?

    How do you deal with Independents?

    Lib Dems would probably go for it as it would generate more Lib Dems.
    If you win a seat, the 5% threshold doesn't apply. It's either / or
    Not my specialist subject, but I think that in (eg) Germany, if you get one directly elected MP and (say) 4% of the vote (ie below the threshold), you only get your one MP and not the other x MPs from your list.

    That setup could limit eg Greens to one MP rather than 4% from 650 - depending on the detail of the system.

    This is one aspect with which the Germans are still tinkering.
    Not true see my other post.
    Also the Germans are not tinkering with this.

    What they tinker with is how they fit the PR and the Direct seats together so that it is fair at both state and federal level, which is a much more minor aspect.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,446

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    “Day One” pledge to come from Swinson:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49720863
    A Liberal Democrat government will revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit on day one, leader Jo Swinson is to vow.
    In her first speech to the party's conference as leader, Ms Swinson will reiterate its policy of overturning the law ensuring the UK will leave the EU....

    Be interesting if they were short of a majority but clearly the largest party. Would their pledge extend to a Liberal Democrat led government not just a Liberal Democrat government?
    How could it, given that they would be dependent on the cooperation of other parties ?

    Having said that, a revoke backed by two or more parties representing over 50% of the electorate would without doubt be preferable to a Lib Dem solo effort (in the highly unlikely circumstance of their scraping a majority with 35% of the vote.)
    The very fact people are even discussing the Lib Dems winning a majority means this policy is working as intended.
    How they can discuss it without laughing is beyond me, people really are as stupid as they make out to be.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Whilst the Uk gazes into its navel whilst heckling through a megaphone...

    https://twitter.com/paulgoodmanch/status/1173854653899034625?s=21
  • Cameron comes across in his memoirs and interviews just as he always did. You put a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge, you get a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge. See, also, our current PM, who is everything Cameron was, but without any of the very limited redeeming qualities.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    Cameron needs a new PR guy. He comes across as a total twit.
    He's coming across as a seven year old twat.

    (Sorry, seven year olds.)
    I like Dave, and so far the extracts I’ve seen from his autobiography show the very worst of himself.

    Dignity would be good.
    He's coming across like the Scooby Doo fairground owner, saying he would have got away with it if it weren't for those pesky kids.

  • Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    He's completely wrong on this, but
    The bar looks higher in the US courts compared to the British ones to me. With regards space, I think he's going to get some version of Starship up before SLS. NASA is an organisation that's completely lost its way when it comes to rockets.

    NASA is doing exactly what Congress is telling it to do. If Congress gave NASA a saner set of things to do, then I have no doubt that NASA would do it excellently.

    However, I'd argue that the James Webb mess is the place where NASA (and Northrop Grumman) are utterly failing. This is the stuff they should be good at. But it's too grand, and perhaps with hindsight too much of a technological push given current launch capabilities.

    What Congress (and NASA) are missing is an overall objective, something to aim for. Some presidents have had grand plans for space (e.g. Bush 1's Space Exploration Initiative in 1989 to the Moon and Mars), but Congress invariably fails to fund them. Instead, too much of NASA's funding is being spent on make-work projects for NASA divisions, rather than steaming on towards a destination.
    I think the days of NASA developing its own launch systems are nearly over, as they simply cannot provide the economies of scale a commercial operator like SpaceX has proved possible. Nor can they take the kind of move fast and make mistakes culture possible in the private sector; that is simply the nature of public organisations.
    I agree, but the problem is that the current private constructors (e.g. Boeing, ULA) are going to get hurt. This means that some in Congress will be loathe to see NASA get out of the rocket game. Although the DoD have competitions running to potentially move to new launch providers.

    It should be remembered that many SpaceX fans castigate NASA for putting roadblocks in the way of the crewed Dragon 2 capsule's flight - despite the fact that NASA are paying for it, and Boeing's Starliner is being similarly 'hurt'.

    However, given the two rocket explosions SpaceX have suffered, and the Dragon 2 explosion earlier this year, perhaps NASA's hesitancy was justified. The lessons learnt mean that the first crewed launch will be much safer.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,591

    Cameron comes across in his memoirs and interviews just as he always did. You put a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge, you get a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge. See, also, our current PM, who is everything Cameron was, but without any of the very limited redeeming qualities.

    Remember though, Boris Johnson is not the establishment. No siree. The ‘Stop Brexit’ guy from Port Talbot on the other hand...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    edited September 2019

    He won’t be tried or put in prison: it would take too long.

    If Boris hasn’t agreed a Deal or extended the Brexit deadline by Monday 21st October he’ll be VoNC and an alternative administration put in place.

    Just pondering here, but one way parliament might be able to pass a deal is if Boris resigns as PM and Gove or some other Tory takes over, and they take the extension and come back with a deal. I expect Labour would enjoy bigging up the Conservative Prime Minister, at the expense of and hopefully with the opposition of the Conservative Leader.
    Yes, I wrote an article suggesting that very outcome on here Monday morning last week, and tipped Jeremy Hunt to be that person.
    And how would he get the Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons if the backstop is still in place without mass defections of Labour MPs to vote for it to counter DUP and ERG opposition? Plus Boris would likely whip against the Withdrawal Agreement plus backstop in that scenario anyway as leader of the opposition given Corbyn (or at least most Labour MPs) and Swinson and Sturgeon would be propping up Hunt for him to become PM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    TGOHF said:

    Whilst the Uk gazes into its navel whilst heckling through a megaphone...

    https://twitter.com/paulgoodmanch/status/1173854653899034625?s=21

    He was so angry, I can only think that over lunch Boris had informed the EU that our required Commissioner would be Dominic Cummings.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,446
    edited September 2019

    Cameron needs a new PR guy. He comes across as a total twit.
    He comes across as needy and lacking self awareness
    Poor little rich boy who is no longer the centre of attention, boo hoo
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,426

    Cameron comes across in his memoirs and interviews just as he always did. You put a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge, you get a fabulously privileged Old Etonian in charge. See, also, our current PM, who is everything Cameron was, but without any of the very limited redeeming qualities.

    I can't see Cameron conspicuously walking away from a joint press conference with another head of state because there are protesters in the crowd.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Chris said:

    The government submission to the Supreme Court - doesn’t pull many punches when it comes to the Scottish decision - and makes the point:

    Thirdly, the claim is both academic, and untenable on the facts. Under the terms of s.3 of NIEFA and the Order in Council, Parliament was able to sit after the summer recess until 9 September 2019 and will be able to sit on and after 14 October 2019. Parliament was, and will be able to use that time for any purpose, including legislating at pace, if it wishes. Recent events could not more graphically illustrate that fact: the new Act was introduced, considered and enacted by Parliament before the prorogation even began; and it could have legislated, but did not legislate, to ensure that Parliament continued to sit during the prorogation if that had been Parliament’s wish.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-the-prime-minister-and-advocate-general-for-scotland.pdf

    How is that supposed to be relevant to the question of whether prorogation is lawful?
    It demonstrates that the premise on which it was deemed to be unlawful, namely that there would be insufficient time for Parliament to act, was and is nonsense. The written submission for the PM is compelling and its demolition of the Court of Session judgment is comprehensive.
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