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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the Democratic nomination

With all the focus on the United Kingdom’s political crisis PB’s not covered the 2020 American presidential race for some time. At this stage, of course, this is all about who the Democratic party will choose to take on Donald Trump in November next year.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited September 2019
    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.
  • dobbindobbin Posts: 28
    Second? Downtown Fairbanks Alaska
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited September 2019
    KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement
    Bill Maher said:

    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    dobbin said:

    Second? Downtown Fairbanks Alaska

    I just looked up your IP, and you are actually in Alaska.

    Enjoy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    edmundintokyo said:

    KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement


    Bill Maher said:

    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
    My bet: the Dems choose Warren, but she only gets one term as she's simply too divisive a figure.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    How many time zones can we have PBers in at once? Nearly 8am in Dubai.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How is Sioux pronounced?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

    (£)

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    AndyJS said:

    How is Sioux pronounced?

    Like the boy’s name.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Last week, Ladbrokes cut Hillary Clinton into 20/1 so someone must be backing her. Someone with a crystal ball or who has just woken from a four year coma?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement


    Bill Maher said:

    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
    My bet: the Dems choose Warren, but she only gets one term as she's simply too divisive a figure.
    And she’d also be the oldest elected to a second term, comfortably beating Reagan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    All is not exactly well in the Sanders campaign, as he replaces his New Hampshire state director:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/15/bernie-sanders-campaign-new-hampshire-1497448
    The shake-up comes as some progressive voters in New Hampshire weigh Sen. Elizabeth Warren as a better option to beat President Donald Trump. At a Democratic convention here just over a week ago, a noticeable number of state delegates who voted for Sanders in 2016 said they had moved their support to Warren. Even members of the Sanders steering committee — his most diehard supporters — said they were eyeing Warren....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Nigelb said:

    All is not exactly well in the Sanders campaign, as he replaces his New Hampshire state director:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/15/bernie-sanders-campaign-new-hampshire-1497448
    The shake-up comes as some progressive voters in New Hampshire weigh Sen. Elizabeth Warren as a better option to beat President Donald Trump. At a Democratic convention here just over a week ago, a noticeable number of state delegates who voted for Sanders in 2016 said they had moved their support to Warren. Even members of the Sanders steering committee — his most diehard supporters — said they were eyeing Warren....

    Sanders was the protest vote against Hillary Clinton last time, who never really turned her fire on him because she'd already got the nomination sewn up (or stitched up, if you prefer). That represents the ceiling of his support.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Background on the Saudi/Yemen/Iran conflict:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1173406486082609152?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Speaking of the Middle East, keep an eye on rising oil prices which in the past have been bad for government polling, though this time round might provide political cover for Brexit-related disruption. If continued, it might also improve the economic outlook for Russia and Scotland.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

    Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    AndyJS said:

    How is Sioux pronounced?

    Isn't it like "Sue" ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    edmundintokyo said:

    KLOBUCHAR clinches the crucial Bill Maher endorsement


    Bill Maher said:

    "I'm looking hard at Amy Klobuchar," Maher said. "You know why? Because -- this is not an insult to Amy Klobuchar -- I like you, but they put generic Democrat on the ballot, they win."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bill-maher-says-amy-klobuchar-would-be-solid-compromise-choice-for-dems-2020-nomination/ar-AAHh4pL
    You really have a thing for Amy.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Casino_Royale said:


    You really have a thing for Amy.

    Democratic primary voters not so much, sadly
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Speaking of the Middle East, keep an eye on rising oil prices which in the past have been bad for government polling, though this time round might provide political cover for Brexit-related disruption. If continued, it might also improve the economic outlook for Russia and Scotland.

    I’m sure Brit Nats will come up with some jolly wheeze to explain why a booming oil sector spells disaster for Scotland.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

    Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.

    I wouldn't lose sleep on those. Harris the only one with any real chance of getting the nomination, but that requires her to hang on until (and then win) California. Which doesn't seem very likely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    OT. More clever positioning from Jo Swinson. She will not prop up a Labour Government while JEREMY CORBYN is leader. A nice new home for Labour voters who don't like Corbyn. (Surely most of them)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm a tad shorter on Warren than perhaps I could be at the moment, as I think her odds are too tight and she's a clear lay.

    Otherwise, I'm nicely positive on all except Yang, Clinton, Sanders and Harris.

    I wouldn't lose sleep on those. Harris the only one with any real chance of getting the nomination, but that requires her to hang on until (and then win) California. Which doesn't seem very likely.
    Thanks. Let’s hope so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    OT UK PM to EU: Make a deal with me, you can totally trust me to honour it, I know I don't even follow my own country's laws but a deal with you, definitely legit

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1173380211401994242
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, seems bizarre Clinton's down to 21.

    I'll be ahead if Warren, Harris, or Biden wins. Might have (and forgotten about) a few dollars on very long shot others, but those are the main three.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

    Am I supposed to have heard of this person?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Hartlepool, of course.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

    Am I supposed to have heard of this person?
    She’s been quoted on here a couple of times as the Uber-woke right-on millennial- but I suspect Twitter have finally twigged that it’s a parody....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    CarlottaVance said:


    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

    Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    No, Dems by more than 3 million votes next time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    AndyJS said:

    "The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

    (£)

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

    Pretty disgraceful but these things happen. A couple of people asleep on the job I guess
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edmundintokyo said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

    Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19
    Good luck!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m in Budapest of course today.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited September 2019
    logical_song said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    No, Dems by more than 3 million votes next time.
    A surplus of Dem votes don't matter, though if enough Rep ones are in the 'right' places for The Donald. After all, 90% Dem in California and New York are only equal to 51% Rep in Alaska and Utah!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Alas, Titania follows Godfrey Elfwick[sp] into the ethereal plane.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

    It’s a (well done) parody account. Hopefully Carlotta knew
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
    So what? The Democrats will sort it out and then the merry-go-round of tax cuts for billionaires and appointing right-wing judges to keep guns safe for unborn babies can start again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    not_on_fire said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

    It’s a (well done) parody account. Hopefully Carlotta knew
    It appears Twitter may not have....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Walker, I'm still here. And so are the enormo-haddock.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    Which Clinton states is he going to flip? Justify your answer using the 2018 midterms results
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    I'm still in Cannock, or at least I'm fairly sure I am. Grey and miserable this morning.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT UK PM to EU: Make a deal with me, you can totally trust me to honour it, I know I don't even follow my own country's laws but a deal with you, definitely legit

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1173380211401994242

    The EU should say sorry we need a trustworthy partner , we don’t do deals with law breakers ! Bozo is becoming unhinged .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    That’s what makes a betting market.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    I'm still in Cannock, or at least I'm fairly sure I am. Grey and miserable this morning.
    I think some idiot turned out the lights...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia.
    Are we talking about the state or are you witnessing an assault on a young lady?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.
    Trump is something like -25 Approval Rating in Minnesota, and he did dismally in the midterms there.

    Nevada is a possible, but is long term trending Blue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
    Oh I agree. Trump's economic policies are incredibly short term and are aggravating existing distortions and weaknesses. What the US really needs is a sensible Democrat like Bill Clinton who is willing to address the crazy deficit and do some long term planning on various Federal budget programs. I can't see any republican doing it. They are the party of fiscal irresponsibility in the US.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited September 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.
    Indeed.

    If they teamed up with the SNP posters think what a force they would be! :smiley:
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411
    Still in the UK for now but have just booked one last holiday to Italy as an EU citizen, returning 30th October. Need to use that membership one last time, especially as the museums give you a discount if you have an EU passport.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    If he does keep the plates in the air, then 2020 will be the election the Republicans wish they'd never won.

    The more you unbalance the economy, the worse the inevitable hangover.
    I’m more concerned about the planet. Another five years before starting to address climate change is more than dangerous.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
    Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    A good line on R5. 'Michael Gove says he's had enough of excerpts'
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

    Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

    My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited September 2019
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
    Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's
    Is there a Wetherspoon's in Didsbury? I don't think so....I know you cant move for them in Hartlepool
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    "The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

    (£)

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

    My word.

    If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

    Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edmundintokyo said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?

    Gonna come clean, I haven't been in Tokyo for a few years, currently fixing up a house in a town called Mashiko, about 100km north.

    https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1092674541980024832?s=19
    What’s Japanese for “fixer upper”? That said I once had a Japanese colleague who was doing up his house in Japan and I commiserated with him asking how far over budget and behind schedule it was. He replied, “this is Japan, it is on time and on budget - do they do things differently in the U.K.?

    There’s a great old Cary Grant movie “Mr Blandings Builds his Dream House” - I gave a copy to my architect who has shown it to all subsequent clients!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    Otoh there is a fair chunk of pb dedicated to removing Edinburgh from the UK.
    And a fair few of us committed to making sure that never happens.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Roger said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    Roger is in Didsbury for the next seven days where there is more chance of meeting a Yeti than a Leaver then South of France then Venice for the Biennale.
    Be careful Roger, there are one or two leavers in Didsbury, mainly around the Wetherspoon's
    Is there a Weatherspoon's in Didsbury? I don't think so....I know you cant move for them in Hartlepool
    Actually, there isn't but maybe avoid The Nelson
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Well I’m only a 2/12 hour flight away
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019
    Roger said:

    ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian

    You are a complete idiot

    Andy’s post was a link behind a paywall that many may not have seen. I want everyone to see it.

    In all honesty, how can you possibly think that me highlighting a newspapers disgusting behaviour is as bad as their disgusting behaviour? By that logic, anyone who references The Sun’s Hillsborough coverage is as bad as them. Behave yourself
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

    Pretty unpleasant, but it's clearly not their corporate view, as it was rapidly pulled.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    First? As the sun sets over the falls in South Dakota.

    And you are actually in Sioux Falls.

    We get all sorts on pb.
    Where am I? Go on, shatter the delusions of those who think I’m in the basement in Matthew Parker St (CCHQ, for the less paranoid....)
    Indonesia
    A little less specific than Sioux Falls!
    Jakarta, not too far from the National Monument.

    Better?
    About 8 miles away - but pretty close!

    I wonder where EdmundinTokyo is.....and is Roger really In the South of France, or West Bromwich?
    And is Byronic posting from the same place as SeanT once did?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Isam, aye, saw that a short time. Particularly abysmal.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

    Pretty unpleasant, but it's clearly not their corporate view, as it was rapidly pulled.
    Rapidly pulling it doesn’t mean it’s not their corporate view at all. If it were a politician speaking, we’d say that revealed their real view before they tried to cover up
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

    Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

    (£)

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

    My word.

    If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

    Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.


    It speaks absolute volumes about the Guardian that an editorial as disgusting as that ever got as far as it did.

    As you say, I bet a number of their key staff have very good private health insurance that they make good use of themselves.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    He's losing ground in the mid West rust belt and getting slaughtered in the suburbs. The Dem candidate can be five points less popular than Obama in the Rust Belt and still comfortably beat Trump in the EC.

    My girl "The Big Shiz Liz" keeps gaining in popularity the more people see her. Low info voters don't like her, high info voters do.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    I think Minnesota is another possibility and just possibly Nevada.
    Trump is something like -25 Approval Rating in Minnesota, and he did dismally in the midterms there.

    Nevada is a possible, but is long term trending Blue.
    After a wobble from the Reid machine stopping I think Nevada once again looks mostly safe for the Dems.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1173371919678283777?s=20

    Am I supposed to have heard of this person?
    An Andrew Doyle creation even less funny that Jonathan Pie. Which is an incredible achievement IMHO.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    DavidL said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Is anyone on PB left in the UK, or have they gone already and I am supposed to turn out the lights.

    Still here. And not planning on going further than Edinburgh today.
    And I'm still here in the Cotswolds, but planning a trip to Hampstead today.

    That reminds me. Must take my passport.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    148grss said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

    Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?
    Perhaps, but that thought was exceedingly ill expressed by the editorial.

    I don't think there are gradations in the suffering experienced by a parent who loses a child, no matter how rich or poor. The experience of trying to arrange treatment for that child is likely to be considerably different, though.

    Far more starkly, set against all that the experience of a son or daughter trying to arrange care for a parent with dementia. For the rich and the not rich, that is two wholly different worlds.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    He's losing ground in the mid West rust belt and getting slaughtered in the suburbs. The Dem candidate can be five points less popular than Obama in the Rust Belt and still comfortably beat Trump in the EC.

    My girl "The Big Shiz Liz" keeps gaining in popularity the more people see her. Low info voters don't like her, high info voters do.
    The former greatly outnumber the latter, though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. grss, I am unpersuaded that a larger bank account or better career dulls the edge of a child's death. Do you think money makes up for a dead son or daughter?

    If not, I'd be intrigued to hear how you think Cameron's pain was any less than that of any other father in his situation.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    not_on_fire said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

    Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

    My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.
    I think people underestimate the degree that Clinton lost a) because turnout amongst Dem electorate was down, which won't happen again, b) because Trump was viewed as a moderate Republican, which he isn't anymore, c) Clinton was especially disliked by the electorate, which no one else on the Dem side even comes close to.

    I think Warren will end up being the compromise pick for those who don't want Biden and don't want Bernie OR that as things get to the final three, it will be Biden v Warren v Bernie and the Biden may get the plurality of delegates. Warren and Bernie will make a deal so one of them (most likely Warren in my view) will be the nominee but with a compromise platform and a compromise Veep.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    It's cricket watching day at Chelmsford. Think I can safely leave the suntan cream at home!

    Excellent NHS experience yesterday; Audiology appointment within 10 days of referral and I now have hearing aids. The young radio audiologist was very pleasant and efficient, and it's surprising what I'm discovering I've been missing!
    And, yes, the appointment was on a Sunday.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    148grss said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/1173343968718917634?s=21

    Are we saying it is controversial that the suffering of a rich guy with all the privileges of power is not necessarily the same as the suffering of poor people, and that it is not okay to point out that this rich guy increased the suffering of poor people, despite suffering himself? Is that really a controversy?
    I wouldn’t credit them with ‘controversial’. It’s what most normal people would think of as a parody of how a certain kind of affluent middle class, pretentious, clueless professional victim would think.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Dominic Raab wants a 'best in class free trade agreement'.

    He's like a dumbed down David Brent that works out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    ISAM. It is heartless but your insistence on quoting it in full twice unlike Andy who just posted a link makes you no better than the Guardian

    You are a complete idiot

    Andy’s post was a link behind a paywall that many may not have seen. I want everyone to see it.

    In all honesty, how can you possibly think that me highlighting a newspapers disgusting behaviour is as bad as their disgusting behaviour? By that logic, anyone who references The Sun’s Hillsborough coverage is as bad as them. Behave yourself
    If I had to choose between an Enoch Powell admirer and someone who wrote a single tasteless editorial about privilege I know who I'd find more offensive
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    148grss said:

    not_on_fire said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic I really can't help feeling that Pocahontas is the Donald's dream opponent. But then I don't think any of them will scare him much.

    He needs to keep the consumer bubble inflated until November next year. Not easy but bullying the Fed to cut interest rates to zero is probably the best way of achieving it. My guess, FWIW, is that it won't be as close as it was the last time.

    This time he’ll lose by 8m votes ?
    Oh, he'll probably lose the popular vote again thanks to California but I think he will win more EC votes than he did the last time.
    I can see him grabbing Virginia, but other than that, I can't see any other pickups.
    Really? Virginia has been blue since 2008 and is trending away from the GOP in the past few elections when you account for the national picture, and the Republicans did poorly in the midterms there in 2017. Fairfax county is full of federal workers and it continues to grow.

    Worth seeing what happens there in November when VA has its state midterms.

    My personal opinion is that the 2020 election will be won and lost in Pennsylvania. I don’t see Trump holding WI.
    I think people underestimate the degree that Clinton lost a) because turnout amongst Dem electorate was down, which won't happen again, b) because Trump was viewed as a moderate Republican, which he isn't anymore, c) Clinton was especially disliked by the electorate, which no one else on the Dem side even comes close to.

    I think Warren will end up being the compromise pick for those who don't want Biden and don't want Bernie OR that as things get to the final three, it will be Biden v Warren v Bernie and the Biden may get the plurality of delegates. Warren and Bernie will make a deal so one of them (most likely Warren in my view) will be the nominee but with a compromise platform and a compromise Veep.
    As I keep banging on an on Trump got almost exactly the same vote share as Romany in the Rust Belt but Clinton lost up to 10 percentage points. Trump even got less absolute votes than Romney in Wisconsin.

    For me the only thing stopping me saying Trump is losing the rustbelt guaranteed mortal lock bet the house on it is what the spineless jellyfish called NeverTrumps do this time out. NeverTrumps love all the judicial nominations Trump has done, they may well fall in behind this time out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited September 2019
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The Guardian apologises for David Cameron editorial"

    (£)

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/the-guardian-apologises-david-cameron-editorial/

    My word.

    If ever there were something to reaffirm my confirmation bias, that’d be it. His son dying is ‘privileged pain’.

    Absolutely typical quite-rich-and-privileged-themselves Guardian think. What an embarrassment they are.


    And you cannot accidentally write this stuff, so the apology is phony as hell - they put in precisely what they intended and meant and the paper saw what was in it. If the point was that rich people experience things differently than poor people why is it necessary to do so by focusing on his dead child?

    It's a case where defenders are undercut, since the paper knows it was unnecessary that's why they've apologised, so people saying it's a fair point have nowhere to go.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited September 2019
    Swinson seems to be gettinga lot of support on radio 5. Poor on radio 4 though.
This discussion has been closed.