The line was the clyde shipyards were going to build 13 type 26s. This is final confirmation that they aren't. Somehow this vindicates McDougall?
That hasn't been the line for a long time. The tories cut the T26 from 13 to 8 in the 2015 SDSR. The RN gave up hulls 7 and 8 for the T45 in order to guarantee a full 13 hull order for T26 but got fucked anyway.
The line on the T31 was that it would be more affordable and therefore have much greater export potential but they've ended up picking the biggest and most expensive variant with very limited export potential.
The tories absolutely despise those parts of the armed forces that actually do the fighting.
In my experience the overwhelming majority of the working class north of London will never vote for them.
"Working class" is generally accepted as meaning C2DE social class voters, as opposed to ABC1 which is "middle class".
Even in the very latest YouGov, showing only a 9% overall lead, 31% of C2DEs would vote Conservative compared to 24% Labour. And with 23% of C2DEs intending to vote for the Brexit Party, whose supporters have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of Johnson than Corbyn, there is quite a bit of potential for that 31% to rise further.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
There are already fascists in Britain. And they support leaving the EU.
Most leavers don't seem to support them, but some seem to really revel in their presence. It's very odd.
To Summarise 10% of the Labour faily strong leavers are 50/50 about voting Conservative. Apart from very unlikely to vote Conservative, the rest is all background noise.
Labour fairly strong leavers will be about 20% of all Labour voters. So 0.2*0.1*0.5= 1% of 2017 Labour voters are preidicted to vote Conservative this time (plus a bit of noise).
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
We already have an authoritarian populist leader, he is certainly not far right yet but the direction of his travel is that way.
There are not many outright remainers around despite leavers assuming remainers are the enemy. Most have come to terms with at least one of soft Brexit or 2nd ref for the reasons you outline, rather than soft Brexit being intrinsically better than membership. It is better mostly because of the instability that remain would cause.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
There are already fascists in Britain. And they support leaving the EU.
Most leavers don't seem to support them, but some seem to really revel in their presence. It's very odd.
Quite impressive the way you simply ducked the entire question.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Its nothing to do with sovereignty. It just proves that being in the EU is better than not being in the EU.
If being outside was so good, we wouldn’t have any issue leaving.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
There are already fascists in Britain. And they support leaving the EU.
Most leavers don't seem to support them, but some seem to really revel in their presence. It's very odd.
Quite impressive the way you simply ducked the entire question.
The question was putting Brexit talking points into the mouths of Remainers, and was frankly unworthy even of your low standards.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
We already have an authoritarian populist leader, he is certainly not far right yet but the direction of his travel is that way.
There are not many outright remainers around despite leavers assuming remainers are the enemy. Most have come to terms with at least one of soft Brexit or 2nd ref for the reasons you outline, rather than soft Brexit being intrinsically better than membership. It is better mostly because of the instability that remain would cause.
Er, you clearly missed the bit where the Lib Dems, the third biggest party, and gaining, have now come out for simple Revoke. Meanwhile the Opposition is promising a referendum, with Remain-and-maybe-become-a-Fascist-state-who-cares on the ballot paper.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
There are already fascists in Britain. And they support leaving the EU.
Most leavers don't seem to support them, but some seem to really revel in their presence. It's very odd.
Quite impressive the way you simply ducked the entire question.
The question was putting Brexit talking points into the mouths of Remainers, and was frankly unworthy even of your low standards.
You ducked the question again! Even more impressive.
Once again the case has been dismissed. The decision of the Inner House looks quite isolated at the moment but who knows what might happen once this gets to the SC?
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
PtP's assessment sounds credible to me. In pre-discussion Palace said "don't even think about forcing HMQ to say no", Govt then worked out absolute maximum they could get away with asking for on that basis before letter was ever presented. No discussion with JRM as deal was already done.
For HMQ to say no and provoke that kind of crisis, the prorogation request would have needed to be so egregious as to be beyond all doubt. That wasn't quite the case. In the Commonwealth realms there are examples of much more nakedly political prorogations than we had ever seen in the UK, so a high bar has been set for rejection. Holding that thought, if the UK had a Governor General, he'd probably be taking whatever heat is reflecting onto the Queen at the moment, and be facing likely resignation.
Agree with this, but if the Scottish Court of Session view holds through to the Supreme Court, Johnson has implicated the monarch in an illegal act without directly lying to her. That should send him to the metaphorical Tower. Even without that, Cummings/Johnson have driven a coach and horses through the constitutional conventions that the monarchy operates by.
In my experience the overwhelming majority of the working class north of London will never vote for them.
"Working class" is generally accepted as meaning C2DE social class voters, as opposed to ABC1 which is "middle class".
Even in the very latest YouGov, showing only a 9% overall lead, 31% of C2DEs would vote Conservative compared to 24% Labour. And with 23% of C2DEs intending to vote for the Brexit Party, whose supporters have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of Johnson than Corbyn, there is quite a bit of potential for that 31% to rise further.
What is the logic behind classifying retired people as working class? It may have made sense in the 80s when retired generally meant poverty and there werent so many around, but in todays world when they are the richest cohort and an ever increasing proportion of the populating, why are they included as working class?
It makes no sense to me. Not to mention that working class also includes those under retirement age who do not work.
I suppose working class which doesnt include most of those who work fits in well with a conservative and unionist party that is neither conservative nor unionist.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
PtP's assessment sounds credible to me. In pre-discussion Palace said "don't even think about forcing HMQ to say no", Govt then worked out absolute maximum they could get away with asking for on that basis before letter was ever presented. No discussion with JRM as deal was already done.
For HMQ to say no and provoke that kind of crisis, the prorogation request would have needed to be so egregious as to be beyond all doubt. That wasn't quite the case. In the Commonwealth realms there are examples of much more nakedly political prorogations than we had ever seen in the UK, so a high bar has been set for rejection. Holding that thought, if the UK had a Governor General, he'd probably be taking whatever heat is reflecting onto the Queen at the moment, and be facing likely resignation.
Agree with this, but if the Scottish Court of Session view holds through to the Supreme Court, Johnson has implicated the monarch in an illegal act without directly lying to her. That should send him to the metaphorical Tower. Even without that, Cummings/Johnson have driven a coach and horses through the constitutional conventions that the monarchy operates by.
Attlee, major both prorogued for political reasons, it would not be unprecedented
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Once again the case has been dismissed. The decision of the Inner House looks quite isolated at the moment but who knows what might happen once this gets to the SC?
It was a completely different question - “Brexit breaks the Belfast Agreement”.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
I think most people will just be glad that the Brexit sh*t-show has stopped.
Your question supposes that the "British People" are a uniform block and will all react the same way. We know that is not the case. Assuming that the 2016 percentages still hold...
A third of the electorate could not be bothered voting. They did not care then, they may not care now
Another third wanted to Remain so I imagine that they will be happy
That leaves (just over) one third, many of whom are reportedly showing Brexit fatigue or are adamantly against No Deal.
So on the 2016 figures, about 66% of the "British People" will not be bothered, an indeterminate chunk of the Leave block is probably more concerned with getting on with life.
Next we need to factor in two more things:
The Yellowhammer report is no longer has "Plausible Denialibity". It is an Official UK Govt Document. It shows the messiness and drawbacks in their full glory. People reading it are unlikely to say "Yes! That is what I want! That sort of disaster!!"
The demographic change. Unpopular around this parish, but many Leavers have popped their clogs and many Remainers have come on the the Electoral Roll. So that 2:1 split above maybe more like 75:25
There will not be riots on the streets. The proletariat will not be rising up for a glorious revolution and fascism will not be the next popular social trend.
People may well grumble and complain, but most of them have lives, jobs, families and problems of their own to deal with. Brexit is a second or third order issue for most people.
The line was the clyde shipyards were going to build 13 type 26s. This is final confirmation that they aren't. Somehow this vindicates McDougall?
That hasn't been the line for a long time. The tories cut the T26 from 13 to 8 in the 2015 SDSR. The RN gave up hulls 7 and 8 for the T45 in order to guarantee a full 13 hull order for T26 but got fucked anyway.
The line on the T31 was that it would be more affordable and therefore have much greater export potential but they've ended up picking the biggest and most expensive variant with very limited export potential.
The tories absolutely despise those parts of the armed forces that actually do the fighting.
Might we not have sold the T26 to the USN if we'd built it a bit sooner ?
In my experience the overwhelming majority of the working class north of London will never vote for them.
I think you need to distinguish between Midlands and North there; Mansfield went Tory and that is ex-mining. The Midlands are, at least, mixed.
Yes. I grew up in Rutland. Large swathes of the Midlands are like Rutland. Whenever I see Westminster journalists talking about "the Midlands" as if it's all Mansfield and (with all due respect to any ex-MPs round here) Broxtowe, I start to believe that Dominic Cummings is right and they should get out of London a bit more.
Rutland & Melton will vote Conservative for evermore, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Harborough were to go Lib Dem, and Nicky Morgan will be very lucky to hang on to Loughborough.
The worst bit is that "West Midlands" has become code for Birmingham...
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
We already have an authoritarian populist leader, he is certainly not far right yet but the direction of his travel is that way.
There are not many outright remainers around despite leavers assuming remainers are the enemy. Most have come to terms with at least one of soft Brexit or 2nd ref for the reasons you outline, rather than soft Brexit being intrinsically better than membership. It is better mostly because of the instability that remain would cause.
Er, you clearly missed the bit where the Lib Dems, the third biggest party, and gaining, have now come out for simple Revoke. Meanwhile the Opposition is promising a referendum, with Remain-and-maybe-become-a-Fascist-state-who-cares on the ballot paper.
LDs are only for outright revoke if they gain an outright majority (a 1.5% chance on betfair), if they do somehow win a majority the countrys views on Brexit will have shifted significantly. The other 98.5% of the time they will support campaigns for a 2nd ref.
In my experience the overwhelming majority of the working class north of London will never vote for them.
I think you need to distinguish between Midlands and North there; Mansfield went Tory and that is ex-mining. The Midlands are, at least, mixed.
Yes. I grew up in Rutland. Large swathes of the Midlands are like Rutland. Whenever I see Westminster journalists talking about "the Midlands" as if it's all Mansfield and (with all due respect to any ex-MPs round here) Broxtowe, I start to believe that Dominic Cummings is right and they should get out of London a bit more.
Rutland & Melton will vote Conservative for evermore, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Harborough were to go Lib Dem, and Nicky Morgan will be very lucky to hang on to Loughborough.
I think you make some really good points re the split in the Midlands.. I would however be very suprised if the LDs came anywhere close in Harborough, their resources will be piling into much more winnable seats and this one would be just too big a swing..
I am a northerner myself having grown up in West Yorks and I really don't think there is a line which can be drawn to separate where the tories become acceptable and where they are not.. Take South Yorkshire for example.. Its perfectly reasonable that Penistone and Stockbridge and Don Valley could be tory gains at the next election due to some lab- tory switching but there will be zero switching like that in any Sheffield seats..
What people do forget is that a large number of labour working class voters will never vote tory but they will vote Brexit party and every one which does is worth 0.5 of a direct switcher to the cons.. I can see brexit hoovering up labour votes across South Yorkshire which may just help the odd tory slip in..
In my experience the overwhelming majority of the working class north of London will never vote for them.
I think you need to distinguish between Midlands and North there; Mansfield went Tory and that is ex-mining. The Midlands are, at least, mixed.
Yes. I grew up in Rutland. Large swathes of the Midlands are like Rutland. Whenever I see Westminster journalists talking about "the Midlands" as if it's all Mansfield and (with all due respect to any ex-MPs round here) Broxtowe, I start to believe that Dominic Cummings is right and they should get out of London a bit more.
Rutland & Melton will vote Conservative for evermore, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Harborough were to go Lib Dem, and Nicky Morgan will be very lucky to hang on to Loughborough.
The worst bit is that "West Midlands" has become code for Birmingham...
Btw I seem to have upset a few people with my early morning comment about hypocrisy. Whilst I do not depart from what I said about remainers (who are far more ambitious in their aspirations now than they were when May was mucking about a year ago) I am not for one second suggesting that the hypocrisy is one sided.
Equal, possibly even more trenchant, criticism could be made of the leave side. The idiotic votes against May's deal by the ERG were a disgrace, the use of prorogation (whatever the legal rights and wrongs of it may prove to be) was an abuse of our constitution which essentially relies to a dangerous degree on those in office doing the right thing and acting responsibly and the lies being told about the supposedly ongoing negotiations with the EU are just offensive because it is treating us like idiots.
There's plenty of blame and hypocrisy to go around, more than enough for all involved.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
What happens if we had a referendum on "should all people have the power of flight" and a majority voted yes? It isn't possible to do it, but by giving the referendum we have created a mandate for the impossible. What happens if we had a referendum on "should all people with blue eyes be enslaved" and a majority voted yes? This policy is possible, but it is morally heinous and illegal.
Brexit is not impossible, it is just very difficult. But we can work from first principles and say "well, we would have to not implement an impossible policy, even if democratically demanded, so what is the stress test on a very difficult policy?" I do not think Brexit meets that very difficult stress test, even if it will have massively negative impacts. I do think that No Deal fails this stress test as morally heinous, although not to the same degree as the example above.
The obvious answer is a Norway style deal, where we are still members of the SM and accept the stuff that comes with it. That was what many leavers argued for during the referendum, the referendum was won on a very tight margin, so obviously the method of leaving should be one that is not as radical a departure from the status quo as those being suggested.
I personally agree not leaving the EU would lead to a rise in the far right.
I also think any post Brexit economic downturn will lead to a rise in the far right.
I do not think Britain has an option that doesn't lead to an increase in the far right, because too many politicians have broken the way our system of government works and have stoked bigotry for too long. Too many politicians argue that leavers have been stabbed in the back by traitors and remainers, that enemies from without and within hate the country and that the "will of the people" will never be enacted.
In my experience the overwhelming majority of the working class north of London will never vote for them.
I think you need to distinguish between Midlands and North there; Mansfield went Tory and that is ex-mining. The Midlands are, at least, mixed.
Yes. I grew up in Rutland. Large swathes of the Midlands are like Rutland. Whenever I see Westminster journalists talking about "the Midlands" as if it's all Mansfield and (with all due respect to any ex-MPs round here) Broxtowe, I start to believe that Dominic Cummings is right and they should get out of London a bit more.
Rutland & Melton will vote Conservative for evermore, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Harborough were to go Lib Dem, and Nicky Morgan will be very lucky to hang on to Loughborough.
The worst bit is that "West Midlands" has become code for Birmingham...
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Serious answer: I simply don't know.
All this is ultimately about having agency - naff sociology word but it describes it well. People feel powerless. Their day-to-day lives are not as good as they thought they'd be (zero-hours contracts, ever-climbing bills, can't afford a house etc. etc.) and they can't see any way to change that. So when the first chance comes along to vote out one of the pantomime villains, they take it. This is why "Take back control" was the literal Leave slogan: the appeal was "you can regain your agency", not just over laws but over your whole life. This is Brexit 101 and I don't need to explain all this.
So what the whole Brexit farrago proves is: you were powerless, you thought you could change things, you can't, you're still powerless. (Those of us of a Remain persuasion will argue that the "you can't" is because you were lied to and the politicians you elected are inept arseholes, but that's not really important.)
I genuinely don't know how that plays out. Disaffection is probably more likely than fascism. About the one good thing that FPTP has going for it is that it keeps a lid on fascism. The best-case scenario is that all stays peaceful until a competent government comes along and starts to actually address people's life chances, but there's no sign of a competent government on the horizon.
Corbyn, bless his cotton socks, does at least try to articulate an answer, by addressing the root cause of people's day-to-day lives not being any good. He's catastrophically inept and nationalising the water board isn't going to make the slightest difference to anyone, but the rationale is there.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Once again the case has been dismissed. The decision of the Inner House looks quite isolated at the moment but who knows what might happen once this gets to the SC?
It's worth noting that the Supreme Court could uphold ALL these decisions because there are three different legal systems involved. So the decisions aren't necessarily inconsistent with each other - they could all be correct under the law of the part of the UK concerned.
In those circumstances, the prorogation would be overturned - it needs to be lawful throughout the UK to be effective, two out of three isn't enough.
In practice, I suspect the Supreme Court will pragmatically find a way to arrive at a decision which interprets the law in each part of the UK as consistent in this area - i.e. it will either overturn Scotland, or England/Wales and Northern Ireland. But it certainly doesn't have to do that (indeed, it could in theory overturn all three decisions and say prorogation was lawful in Scotland but not anywhere else in the UK!)
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
You know nothing of isam's background. Pff.
Here's a bit about my background: I was homeless in my 20s. Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say: Fuck Brexit.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
I think most people will just be glad that the Brexit sh*t-show has stopped.
Your question supposes that the "British People" are a uniform block and will all react the same way. We know that is not the case. Assuming that the 2016 percentages still hold...
- A third of the electorate could not be bothered voting. They did not care then, they may not care now
- Another third wanted to Remain so I imagine that they will be happy
- That leaves (just over) one third, many of whom are reportedly showing Brexit fatigue or are adamantly against No Deal.
So on the 2016 figures, about 66% of the "British People" will not be bothered, an indeterminate chunk of the Leave block is probably more concerned with getting on with life.
Next we need to factor in two more things:
- The Yellowhammer report is no longer has "Plausible Denialibity". It is an Official UK Govt Document. It shows the messiness and drawbacks in their full glory. People reading it are unlikely to say "Yes! That is what I want! That sort of disaster!!"
- The demographic change. Unpopular around this parish, but many Leavers have popped their clogs and many Remainers have come on the the Electoral Roll. So that 2:1 split above maybe more like 75:25
There will not be riots on the streets. The proletariat will not be rising up for a glorious revolution and fascism will not be the next popular social trend.
People may well grumble and complain, but most of them have lives, jobs, families and problems of their own to deal with. Brexit is a second or third order issue for most people.
Even on your sketchy and complacent stats, 20-25% of the British people will be truly furious, and will feel that that their democratic rights have been stripped from them, and that their nation has been stolen from them.
That's millions of people who might consider voting for extreme parties, to enact their revenge, and get their country back.
Remainers are juggling with hand grenades, yet they think they juggle with tennis balls. It is madness.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
You know nothing of isam's background. Pff.
Here's a bit about my background: I was homeless in my 20s. Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say: Fuck Brexit.
If he makes a sworn affidavit that he didn’t mislead the Queen but there is info out there that he did and that comes to light then he’s in huge trouble .
End of his political career and contempt of court .
No advice to the queen will ever enter the public domain though, its hard to see how it could be proven
The Queen made her views known in the Paul Burrell case. When Queens evidence cleared him at court.
No, he was cleared as the info becoming public would be damaging
It says as I said in reports from the time. That the Queen let the CPS know that she had a conversation with Burrell , regarding Diana's property.This was when the trial was in progress. Apologies can not attach the reports.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
You know nothing of isam's background. Pff.
Here's a bit about my background: I was homeless in my 20s. Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say: Fuck Brexit.
I was homeless in my 20s too. Next.
And? You are as metropolitan liberal elite as you can get and yet you support Brexit.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
You know nothing of isam's background. Pff.
Here's a bit about my background: I was homeless in my 20s. Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say: Fuck Brexit.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
I know that if you’re struggling to get by on your current wages, you don’t need a mass influx of competition for your job from people who will happily do it for less money and live in worse conditions, and if I were an employer, I’d be rubbing my hands together at the prospect, and tempted to demonise anyone who threatened it.
The line was the clyde shipyards were going to build 13 type 26s. This is final confirmation that they aren't. Somehow this vindicates McDougall?
That hasn't been the line for a long time. The tories cut the T26 from 13 to 8 in the 2015 SDSR. The RN gave up hulls 7 and 8 for the T45 in order to guarantee a full 13 hull order for T26 but got fucked anyway.
The line on the T31 was that it would be more affordable and therefore have much greater export potential but they've ended up picking the biggest and most expensive variant with very limited export potential.
The tories absolutely despise those parts of the armed forces that actually do the fighting.
Indeed but the line during IndyRef as said by Blair McDougall with actual words was that there would be 13 Type 26s built rock solid guaranteed and anything else was scaremongering, especially the idea that the order would be changed after IndyRef was concluded.
In an incredible show of chutzpath McDougall is trying to claim some kind of victory just now despite 13 Type 26s not being planned to be built..
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
You know nothing of isam's background. Pff.
Here's a bit about my background: I was homeless in my 20s. Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say: Fuck Brexit.
I was homeless in my 20s too. Next.
So then, perhaps it's not about whose had experience of poverty or who is rich. As others have ably pointed out there are some fabulously rich people who are in favour of Brexit, as there are in favour of Remain. You keep bringing up poverty as a pro-Brexit trump card but you don't speak for me and you don't speak for the poor in general. So cram it, fool.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
I know that if you’re struggling to get by on your current wages, you don’t need a mass influx of competition for your job from people who will happily do it for less money and live in worse conditions, and if I were an employer, I’d be rubbing my hands together at the prospect.
You Tories are first to tell us that wage growth is strong and we have nearly full employment. We still have freedom of movement.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
The sovereignty bit is massively overstated. The issue isn't that we don't have a choice. The issue is that we're not prepared to make the choice. Leavers dishonestly presented a blood, sweat and tears option as no cost and won a fractional victory on the back of it. Unless and until we are collectively and deliberately prepared to make things worse for ourselves, the EU rule taking is what it is.
Brexiteers have no answer to that key point, and never have done.
What happens if we had a referendum on "should all people have the power of flight" and a majority voted yes? It isn't possible to do it, but by giving the referendum we have created a mandate for the impossible. What happens if we had a referendum on "should all people with blue eyes be enslaved" and a majority voted yes? This policy is possible, but it is morally heinous and illegal.
Brexit is not impossible, it is just very difficult. But we can work from first principles and say "well, we would have to not implement an impossible policy, even if democratically demanded, so what is the stress test on a very difficult policy?" I do not think Brexit meets that very difficult stress test, even if it will have massively negative impacts. I do think that No Deal fails this stress test as morally heinous, although not to the same degree as the example above.
The obvious answer is a Norway style deal, where we are still members of the SM and accept the stuff that comes with it. That was what many leavers argued for during the referendum, the referendum was won on a very tight margin, so obviously the method of leaving should be one that is not as radical a departure from the status quo as those being suggested.
I personally agree not leaving the EU would lead to a rise in the far right.
I also think any post Brexit economic downturn will lead to a rise in the far right.
I do not think Britain has an option that doesn't lead to an increase in the far right, because too many politicians have broken the way our system of government works and have stoked bigotry for too long. Too many politicians argue that leavers have been stabbed in the back by traitors and remainers, that enemies from without and within hate the country and that the "will of the people" will never be enacted.
Thankyou for that cogent and honest reply, and the same to El Capitano.
I fear the future, if Remain wins. I fear the future, if No Deal "wins".
We desperately need a deal. Any deal. These fucking useless MPs need to see that disaster is just over the hill, and coming our way. Ludicrous ultra-Remainers like Grieve, or Soubry, and their equivalents on the No Deal side, have to be thrown in a very deep pit, and kept their until this is done.
Once again the case has been dismissed. The decision of the Inner House looks quite isolated at the moment but who knows what might happen once this gets to the SC?
It's worth noting that the Supreme Court could uphold ALL these decisions because there are three different legal systems involved. So the decisions aren't necessarily inconsistent with each other - they could all be correct under the law of the part of the UK concerned.
In those circumstances, the prorogation would be overturned - it needs to be lawful throughout the UK to be effective, two out of three isn't enough.
In practice, I suspect the Supreme Court will pragmatically find a way to arrive at a decision which interprets the law in each part of the UK as consistent in this area - i.e. it will either overturn Scotland, or England/Wales and Northern Ireland. But it certainly doesn't have to do that (indeed, it could in theory overturn all three decisions and say prorogation was lawful in Scotland but not anywhere else in the UK!)
The Irish case didn't really turn on the prorogation powers, though, since a main plank of the case seemed to be asking the court to confirm that no deal Brexit was incompatible with the GFA. Which understandably the court didn't want to touch.
The issue of law for the SC is what limits, if any, courts should set on the government powers to advise prorogation.
Once again the case has been dismissed. The decision of the Inner House looks quite isolated at the moment but who knows what might happen once this gets to the SC?
It's worth noting that the Supreme Court could uphold ALL these decisions because there are three different legal systems involved. So the decisions aren't necessarily inconsistent with each other - they could all be correct under the law of the part of the UK concerned.
In those circumstances, the prorogation would be overturned - it needs to be lawful throughout the UK to be effective, two out of three isn't enough.
In practice, I suspect the Supreme Court will pragmatically find a way to arrive at a decision which interprets the law in each part of the UK as consistent in this area - i.e. it will either overturn Scotland, or England/Wales and Northern Ireland. But it certainly doesn't have to do that (indeed, it could in theory overturn all three decisions and say prorogation was lawful in Scotland but not anywhere else in the UK!)
I think that there is zero chance in them coming to a different view based on different legal systems. I think that misunderstands the position. The analogy I would use is, somewhat ironically, EU law. UK constitutional law has developed over the last 300 years as an overarching system for the UK. It is based on discrete legal systems but just as the CJEU ensures that such differences do not affect the application of EU regulations in each country so the SC will apply that UK based jurisprudence to the cases from each jurisdiction uniformly.
There have been a few attempts to establish a discrete Scottish constitutional legal system over the years, typically by reference to some clause in the Act of Union. They have never got anywhere and arguments that the Claim of Right is somehow materially different from the Bill of Rights in this context will similarly fail.
O/T I only recently came back here after a long break and it is a lot more sharp tongued than I (possibly incorrectly) recall but I would like to record my thanks to the administrators and all the posters for making this such an interesting place.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
Disclaimer, I live on disability benefits and have direct experience of work capability assessment and PIP assessment. I can speak from a position of what would be described as relatively poor (before disability I had well paid work both employed and self employed) Politicians as a whole have very little idea of what poverty, living on low income etc are like The current disability benefits regime is a disgrace, and I haven't even had the pleasure of migration to Universal Credit yet. From my perspective the damage of further delay to Brexit and associated eyes off the ball on domestic issues outweighs the potential damage of leaving WITH DEAL, although if it were 2016 I would vote remain, but it's not so get it done. Life on benefits isn't easy, but its definitely possible as a single person, I'd loathe to have to try and support a family, it was very tough when I was living with my partner who had a low paid job but that all ended so I'm probably actually better off now I'm alone, financially if not emotionally. It's a very different life than that when I had means a few years ago, and I'll be honest I had no idea, so I'm not sure how politicians could possibly properly understand. I'm very much still led by my old habits politically in the main despising the hard left, hence just wanting to ensure the failure of corbynism/labour. I dont really care once we Brexit with a deal what happens as long as Corbyn is kept out, I truly believe he would trash the economy and thus make things even harder for me.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
You know nothing of isam's background. Pff.
Here's a bit about my background: I was homeless in my 20s. Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say: Fuck Brexit.
I was homeless in my 20s too. Next.
So then, perhaps it's not about whose had experience of poverty or who is rich. As others have ably pointed out there are some fabulously rich people who are in favour of Brexit, as there are in favour of Remain. You keep bringing up poverty as a pro-Brexit trump card but you don't speak for me and you don't speak for the poor in general. So cram it, fool.
The line was the clyde shipyards were going to build 13 type 26s. This is final confirmation that they aren't. Somehow this vindicates McDougall?
That hasn't been the line for a long time. The tories cut the T26 from 13 to 8 in the 2015 SDSR. The RN gave up hulls 7 and 8 for the T45 in order to guarantee a full 13 hull order for T26 but got fucked anyway.
The line on the T31 was that it would be more affordable and therefore have much greater export potential but they've ended up picking the biggest and most expensive variant with very limited export potential.
The tories absolutely despise those parts of the armed forces that actually do the fighting.
Might we not have sold the T26 to the USN if we'd built it a bit sooner ?
Why? When they can have a Flight IIIA Arleigh Burke Guided Missile Destroyer for the same money,
USN requirements are very different. Their ships tend to be more heavily armed with comprehensive sensor suites and bigger complements. Generally, they are actually designed, built and crewed with fighting wars in mind,
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
LD breaking for Revoke makes sense to me because, to come to fruition, it needs an LD / Remain Alliance majority government. That would be so democratically seismic given even the current polls, and even compared to the Leave vote itself, as to render it almost unarguable that 2016 still somehow held.
Likewise, it needs a lot of calm explanation as to why the current impasse, in which a genuinely tiny number of MPs are voting against their 2017 GE party and personal campaign positions, is deeply democratic in its nature. Neither the impasse nor the GE provide a get out from the 2016 result, but to actually deliver the result, both impasse and GE need full respect, parliament needs full respect.
Yes, it may give a window for the far right and that is exacerbated because we have spent too long flapping like weather vanes rather than trying to explain calmly where we are coming from (myself included). It is very late in the day to be doing so, let us hope not too late to arrest some of these hazards.
Thankyou for that cogent and honest reply, and the same to El Capitano.
I fear the future, if Remain wins. I fear the future, if No Deal "wins".
We desperately need a deal. Any deal. These fucking useless MPs need to see that disaster is just over the hill, and coming our way. Ludicrous ultra-Remainers like Grieve, or Soubry, and their equivalents on the No Deal side, have to be thrown in a very deep pit, and kept their until this is done.
For this, though, I do not lay the blame at "Remainers". I lay the blame at May. She tried to have a brexit election, and lost. So obviously she did not have a mandate to single handedly try and create a Brexit deal. But that is what she attempted, and what Johnson is trying to do now. Instead the strategy should have been uniting the House around a feasible deal. If an actual Norway style deal had ever reached the House as a serious proposition and the "Remainers" had voted it down, I would agree with you. But the only deal presented was based on May's red lines and an attempt to go to the far leave side of the issue rather than middling along.
I think that there is zero chance in them coming to a different view based on different legal systems. I think that misunderstands the position. The analogy I would use is, somewhat ironically, EU law. UK constitutional law has developed over the last 300 years as an overarching system for the UK. It is based on discrete legal systems but just as the CJEU ensures that such differences do not affect the application of EU regulations in each country so the SC will apply that UK based jurisprudence to the cases from each jurisdiction uniformly.
There have been a few attempts to establish a discrete Scottish constitutional legal system over the years, typically by reference to some clause in the Act of Union. They have never got anywhere and arguments that the Claim of Right is somehow materially different from the Bill of Rights in this context will similarly fail.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
I know that if you’re struggling to get by on your current wages, you don’t need a mass influx of competition for your job from people who will happily do it for less money and live in worse conditions, and if I were an employer, I’d be rubbing my hands together at the prospect, and tempted to demonise anyone who threatened it.
Presumably you also think that people should be stopped from working beyond their county boundaries. The same argument applies. All those nasty young men from Lincolnshire seeking work in Sheffield. The Steel City industrialists are selling out the good folk of South Yorkshire by employing them.
Once again the case has been dismissed. The decision of the Inner House looks quite isolated at the moment but who knows what might happen once this gets to the SC?
It was a completely different question - “Brexit breaks the Belfast Agreement”.
That was only a part of the case. It also sought to challenge the prorogation. I mentioned that I had spoken to one of the counsel involved in the Scottish case. His understanding was that serious efforts were being made to ensure that NI catches up and is represented on the 17th. The NI Court of Appeal hearing will be tomorrow and I suspect they will grant leave to appeal (whatever their decision) on Monday. Counsel working on the SC appeal certainly seem to be working on that assumption.
To give another counterexample to the claim that people only related anecdotes that fitted in with their preferences.
Someone told me today that she didn't normally vote, but this time she would be inclined to vote for Boris because he could get us out of the EU if anyone could.
The line was the clyde shipyards were going to build 13 type 26s. This is final confirmation that they aren't. Somehow this vindicates McDougall?
That hasn't been the line for a long time. The tories cut the T26 from 13 to 8 in the 2015 SDSR. The RN gave up hulls 7 and 8 for the T45 in order to guarantee a full 13 hull order for T26 but got fucked anyway.
The line on the T31 was that it would be more affordable and therefore have much greater export potential but they've ended up picking the biggest and most expensive variant with very limited export potential.
The tories absolutely despise those parts of the armed forces that actually do the fighting.
Indeed but the line during IndyRef as said by Blair McDougall with actual words was that there would be 13 Type 26s built rock solid guaranteed and anything else was scaremongering, especially the idea that the order would be changed after IndyRef was concluded.
In an incredible show of chutzpath McDougall is trying to claim some kind of victory just now despite 13 Type 26s not being planned to be built..
The government has just essentially committed to keeping open two Scottish yards for at least the next 6 years directly at the expense of English (CL-BAE) and Northern Irish (H&W-TKMS) yards...
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
I know that if you’re struggling to get by on your current wages, you don’t need a mass influx of competition for your job from people who will happily do it for less money and live in worse conditions, and if I were an employer, I’d be rubbing my hands together at the prospect.
You Tories are first to tell us that wage growth is strong and we have nearly full employment. We still have freedom of movement.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
Disclaimer, I live on disability benefits and have direct experience of work capability assessment and PIP assessment. I can speak from a position of what would be described as relatively poor (before disability I had well paid work both employed and self employed) Politicians as a whole have very little idea of what poverty, living on low income etc are like The current disability benefits regime is a disgrace, and I haven't even had the pleasure of migration to Universal Credit yet. From my perspective the damage of further delay to Brexit and associated eyes off the ball on domestic issues outweighs the potential damage of leaving WITH DEAL, although if it were 2016 I would vote remain, but it's not so get it done. Life on benefits isn't easy, but its definitely possible as a single person, I'd loathe to have to try and support a family, it was very tough when I was living with my partner who had a low paid job but that all ended so I'm probably actually better off now I'm alone, financially if not emotionally. It's a very different life than that when I had means a few years ago, and I'll be honest I had no idea, so I'm not sure how politicians could possibly properly understand. I'm very much still led by my old habits politically in the main despising the hard left, hence just wanting to ensure the failure of corbynism/labour. I dont really care once we Brexit with a deal what happens as long as Corbyn is kept out, I truly believe he would trash the economy and thus make things even harder for me.
Thank you for your perspective. However don’t you think you’d be better off under a Labour government? I am no fan of Corbyn but clearly benefits would be more generous under his ideology?
Not that politics should always be about what is best for oneself I know.
I think that there is zero chance in them coming to a different view based on different legal systems. I think that misunderstands the position. The analogy I would use is, somewhat ironically, EU law. UK constitutional law has developed over the last 300 years as an overarching system for the UK. It is based on discrete legal systems but just as the CJEU ensures that such differences do not affect the application of EU regulations in each country so the SC will apply that UK based jurisprudence to the cases from each jurisdiction uniformly.
There have been a few attempts to establish a discrete Scottish constitutional legal system over the years, typically by reference to some clause in the Act of Union. They have never got anywhere and arguments that the Claim of Right is somehow materially different from the Bill of Rights in this context will similarly fail.
I think that there is zero chance in them coming to a different view based on different legal systems. I think that misunderstands the position. The analogy I would use is, somewhat ironically, EU law. UK constitutional law has developed over the last 300 years as an overarching system for the UK. It is based on discrete legal systems but just as the CJEU ensures that such differences do not affect the application of EU regulations in each country so the SC will apply that UK based jurisprudence to the cases from each jurisdiction uniformly.
There have been a few attempts to establish a discrete Scottish constitutional legal system over the years, typically by reference to some clause in the Act of Union. They have never got anywhere and arguments that the Claim of Right is somehow materially different from the Bill of Rights in this context will similarly fail.
Er, you clearly missed the bit where the Lib Dems, the third biggest party, and gaining, have now come out for simple Revoke. Meanwhile the Opposition is promising a referendum, with Remain-and-maybe-become-a-Fascist-state-who-cares on the ballot paper.
LDs are only for outright revoke if they gain an outright majority (a 1.5% chance on betfair), if they do somehow win a majority the countrys views on Brexit will have shifted significantly. The other 98.5% of the time they will support campaigns for a 2nd ref.
The LD position is for revoke if they can get that position through parliament by themselves or with support from other MPs holding the same position. Otherwise they will support a 2nd referendum as a fallback option, having already said that they will ignore the result again if it isn't to their liking.
The Lab position is to go back to the EU and negotiate a new deal that will be put to the country as a binary choice with revoke as the other option and the one which Lab will support regardless. The EU will duly oblige by offering up a new deal that all but requires UK families to kill their first born in order to ensure that this time we tick the right box.
To give another counterexample to the claim that people only related anecdotes that fitted in with their preferences.
Someone told me today that she didn't normally vote, but this time she would be inclined to vote for Boris because he could get us out of the EU if anyone could.
My Dad voted Leave and said he’d probably vote Remain now
PtP's assessment sounds credible to me. In pre-discussion Palace said "don't even think about forcing HMQ to say no", Govt then worked out absolute maximum they could get away with asking for on that basis before letter was ever presented. No discussion with JRM as deal was already done.
For HMQ to say no and provoke that kind of crisis, the prorogation request would have needed to be so egregious as to be beyond all doubt. That wasn't quite the case. In the Commonwealth realms there are examples of much more nakedly political prorogations than we had ever seen in the UK, so a high bar has been set for rejection. Holding that thought, if the UK had a Governor General, he'd probably be taking whatever heat is reflecting onto the Queen at the moment, and be facing likely resignation.
Agree with this, but if the Scottish Court of Session view holds through to the Supreme Court, Johnson has implicated the monarch in an illegal act without directly lying to her. That should send him to the metaphorical Tower. Even without that, Cummings/Johnson have driven a coach and horses through the constitutional conventions that the monarchy operates by.
Attlee, major both prorogued for political reasons, it would not be unprecedented
But in those cases the reasons for the prorogation were publicly stated at the time and had the support of a majority of MPs. Now the government has not stated the true reason for the prorogation and a majority of MPs are opposed to it.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
I know that if you’re struggling to get by on your current wages, you don’t need a mass influx of competition for your job from people who will happily do it for less money and live in worse conditions, and if I were an employer, I’d be rubbing my hands together at the prospect, and tempted to demonise anyone who threatened it.
Presumably you also think that people should be stopped from working beyond their county boundaries. The same argument applies. All those nasty young men from Lincolnshire seeking work in Sheffield. The Steel City industrialists are selling out the good folk of South Yorkshire by employing them.
Thankyou for that cogent and honest reply, and the same to El Capitano.
I fear the future, if Remain wins. I fear the future, if No Deal "wins".
We desperately need a deal. Any deal. These fucking useless MPs need to see that disaster is just over the hill, and coming our way. Ludicrous ultra-Remainers like Grieve, or Soubry, and their equivalents on the No Deal side, have to be thrown in a very deep pit, and kept their until this is done.
For this, though, I do not lay the blame at "Remainers". I lay the blame at May. She tried to have a brexit election, and lost. So obviously she did not have a mandate to single handedly try and create a Brexit deal. But that is what she attempted, and what Johnson is trying to do now. Instead the strategy should have been uniting the House around a feasible deal. If an actual Norway style deal had ever reached the House as a serious proposition and the "Remainers" had voted it down, I would agree with you. But the only deal presented was based on May's red lines and an attempt to go to the far leave side of the issue rather than middling along.
Yes, TMay must carry the can for lots of this. Her idiotic red lines led here.
But Remainers ARE actively fighting Brexit, in any form, certainly these past weeks. Ultra-Remain MPs sense total victory, and they won't accept any deal. And they are gaining in confidence at the worst time - see the Lib Dems coming out for Revoke.
Er, you clearly missed the bit where the Lib Dems, the third biggest party, and gaining, have now come out for simple Revoke. Meanwhile the Opposition is promising a referendum, with Remain-and-maybe-become-a-Fascist-state-who-cares on the ballot paper.
LDs are only for outright revoke if they gain an outright majority (a 1.5% chance on betfair), if they do somehow win a majority the countrys views on Brexit will have shifted significantly. The other 98.5% of the time they will support campaigns for a 2nd ref.
The LD position is for revoke if they can get that position through parliament by themselves or with support from other MPs holding the same position. Otherwise they will support a 2nd referendum as a fallback option, having already said that they will ignore the result again if it isn't to their liking.
The Lab position is to go back to the EU and negotiate a new deal that will be put to the country as a binary choice with revoke as the other option and the one which Lab will support regardless. The EU will duly oblige by offering up a new deal that all but requires UK families to kill their first born in order to ensure that this time we tick the right box.
Or perhaps they will offer the May deal with workers rights and environmental equivalence tied in, but that doesnt sound as hyperbolic and nonsensical which seem to be the requirements of our times.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
You know nothing of isam's background. Pff.
Here's a bit about my background: I was homeless in my 20s. Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say: Fuck Brexit.
I was homeless in my 20s too. Next.
So then, perhaps it's not about whose had experience of poverty or who is rich. As others have ably pointed out there are some fabulously rich people who are in favour of Brexit, as there are in favour of Remain. You keep bringing up poverty as a pro-Brexit trump card but you don't speak for me and you don't speak for the poor in general. So cram it, fool.
And up yours, likewise, you lactating little tit
Ah, PB at noon. Love it.
Ooops, you don't like the working classes getting uppity, do you, posh boy? Have your butler bring you a glass port to calm you down.
Thankyou for that cogent and honest reply, and the same to El Capitano.
I fear the future, if Remain wins. I fear the future, if No Deal "wins".
We desperately need a deal. Any deal. These fucking useless MPs need to see that disaster is just over the hill, and coming our way. Ludicrous ultra-Remainers like Grieve, or Soubry, and their equivalents on the No Deal side, have to be thrown in a very deep pit, and kept their until this is done.
For this, though, I do not lay the blame at "Remainers". I lay the blame at May. She tried to have a brexit election, and lost. So obviously she did not have a mandate to single handedly try and create a Brexit deal. But that is what she attempted, and what Johnson is trying to do now. Instead the strategy should have been uniting the House around a feasible deal. If an actual Norway style deal had ever reached the House as a serious proposition and the "Remainers" had voted it down, I would agree with you. But the only deal presented was based on May's red lines and an attempt to go to the far leave side of the issue rather than middling along.
The "solution" has been in plain sight almost all along. It requires Remainers to accept the fact of the vote and Leavers to accept that Brexit has failed on the premise that they voted for.
At that point you go for damage limitation, which is to sign up for just about every EU programme going except membership itself. It's not a sensible outcome. It's the least damaging outcome.
PS I don't particularly blame Theresa May for Brexit being the mess I confidently expected it to be.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
Disclaimer, I live on disability benefits and have direct experience of work capability assessment and PIP assessment. I can speak from a position of what would be described as relatively poor (before disability I had well paid work both employed and self employed) Politicians as a whole have very little idea of what poverty, living on low income etc are like The current disability benefits regime is a disgrace, and I haven't even had the pleasure of migration to Universal Credit yet. From my perspective the damage of further delay to Brexit and associated eyes off the ball on domestic issues outweighs the potential damage of leaving WITH DEAL, although if it were 2016 I would vote remain, but it's not so get it done. Life on benefits isn't easy, but its definitely possible as a single person, I'd loathe to have to try and support a family, it was very tough when I was living with my partner who had a low paid job but that all ended so I'm probably actually better off now I'm alone, financially if not emotionally. It's a very different life than that when I had means a few years ago, and I'll be honest I had no idea, so I'm not sure how politicians could possibly properly understand. I'm very much still led by my old habits politically in the main despising the hard left, hence just wanting to ensure the failure of corbynism/labour. I dont really care once we Brexit with a deal what happens as long as Corbyn is kept out, I truly believe he would trash the economy and thus make things even harder for me.
A valuable insight. I hope life gets better for you.
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
I know that if you’re struggling to get by on your current wages, you don’t need a mass influx of competition for your job from people who will happily do it for less money and live in worse conditions, and if I were an employer, I’d be rubbing my hands together at the prospect.
You Tories are first to tell us that wage growth is strong and we have nearly full employment. We still have freedom of movement.
For me the Bercow resignation announcement was beyond hypocrisy and bordering on odious. Parliament supposedly being dissolved against its will and with insufficient time to debate even longer the agonies of Brexit spends 80 odd minutes of its last day praising someone who has done so much damage to the institution that he was appointed to as well as behaving disgracefully towards his staff. But some of the speeches were hypocrisy at its finest.
There is also the hypocrisy of Brexiters complaining when Bercow bent the rules to make sure the parliamentary majority had a say, when that is exactly what allowed the referendum to happen in the first place.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
Disclaimer, I live on disability benefits and have direct experience of work capability assessment and PIP assessment. I can speak from a position of what would be described as relatively poor (before disability I had well paid work both employed and self employed) Politicians as a whole have very little idea of what poverty, living on low income etc are like The current disability benefits regime is a disgrace, and I haven't even had the pleasure of migration to Universal Credit yet. From my perspective the damage of further delay to Brexit and associated eyes off the ball on domestic issues outweighs the potential damage of leaving WITH DEAL, although if it were 2016 I would vote remain, but it's not so get it done. Life on benefits isn't easy, but its definitely possible as a single person, I'd loathe to have to try and support a family, it was very tough when I was living with my partner who had a low paid job but that all ended so I'm probably actually better off now I'm alone, financially if not emotionally. It's a very different life than that when I had means a few years ago, and I'll be honest I had no idea, so I'm not sure how politicians could possibly properly understand. I'm very much still led by my old habits politically in the main despising the hard left, hence just wanting to ensure the failure of corbynism/labour. I dont really care once we Brexit with a deal what happens as long as Corbyn is kept out, I truly believe he would trash the economy and thus make things even harder for me.
Thank you for your perspective. However don’t you think you’d be better off under a Labour government? I am no fan of Corbyn but clearly benefits would be more generous under his ideology?
Not that politics should always be about what is best for oneself I know.
I've thought about that long and hard. I'm not sure the benefits I would receive would change much, unless they promise a boost which they are not and, as such, I believe his plans would trash the economy and, ironically like in yellowhammer, such effects would adversely impact me harder than someone better off. Having someone 'fluffy' in wont change the disability or make me rich, so I have to look big picture.
Thankyou for that cogent and honest reply, and the same to El Capitano.
I fear the future, if Remain wins. I fear the future, if No Deal "wins".
We desperately need a deal. Any deal. These fucking useless MPs need to see that disaster is just over the hill, and coming our way. Ludicrous ultra-Remainers like Grieve, or Soubry, and their equivalents on the No Deal side, have to be thrown in a very deep pit, and kept their until this is done.
For this, though, I do not lay the blame at "Remainers". I lay the blame at May. She tried to have a brexit election, and lost. So obviously she did not have a mandate to single handedly try and create a Brexit deal. But that is what she attempted, and what Johnson is trying to do now. Instead the strategy should have been uniting the House around a feasible deal. If an actual Norway style deal had ever reached the House as a serious proposition and the "Remainers" had voted it down, I would agree with you. But the only deal presented was based on May's red lines and an attempt to go to the far leave side of the issue rather than middling along.
The "solution" has been in plain sight almost all along. It requires Remainers to accept the fact of the vote and Leavers to accept that Brexit has failed on the premise that they voted for.
At that point you go for damage limitation, which is to sign up for just about every EU programme going except membership itself. It's not a sensible outcome. It's the least damaging outcome.
The least damaging outcome is the withdrawl agreement. Unfortunately it was poorly sold by Mrs May to both sides. The form of leave you suggest as palatable is anything but to most leavers (and I think we'd sooner remain and have Farage in Brussels than that).
What happens if we had a referendum on "should all people have the power of flight" and a majority voted yes? It isn't possible to do it, but by giving the referendum we have created a mandate for the impossible. What happens if we had a referendum on "should all people with blue eyes be enslaved" and a majority voted yes? This policy is possible, but it is morally heinous and illegal.
Brexit is not impossible, it is just very difficult. But we can work from first principles and say "well, we would have to not implement an impossible policy, even if democratically demanded, so what is the stress test on a very difficult policy?" I do not think Brexit meets that very difficult stress test, even if it will have massively negative impacts. I do think that No Deal fails this stress test as morally heinous, although not to the same degree as the example above.
The obvious answer is a Norway style deal, where we are still members of the SM and accept the stuff that comes with it. That was what many leavers argued for during the referendum, the referendum was won on a very tight margin, so obviously the method of leaving should be one that is not as radical a departure from the status quo as those being suggested.
I personally agree not leaving the EU would lead to a rise in the far right.
I also think any post Brexit economic downturn will lead to a rise in the far right.
I do not think Britain has an option that doesn't lead to an increase in the far right, because too many politicians have broken the way our system of government works and have stoked bigotry for too long. Too many politicians argue that leavers have been stabbed in the back by traitors and remainers, that enemies from without and within hate the country and that the "will of the people" will never be enacted.
Thankyou for that cogent and honest reply, and the same to El Capitano.
I fear the future, if Remain wins. I fear the future, if No Deal "wins".
We desperately need a deal. Any deal. These fucking useless MPs need to see that disaster is just over the hill, and coming our way. Ludicrous ultra-Remainers like Grieve, or Soubry, and their equivalents on the No Deal side, have to be thrown in a very deep pit, and kept their until this is done.
What we need is a pragmatic deal that will take us out of the political structures but leave us in the economic structures.
Pleased to see the Northern Irish High Court today takes a different line from the Court of Session in Scotland yesterday and backs the Government in ruling that No Deal Brexit would not be illegal but a political decision
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - need to answer some questions.
How do they think the British people will react, when they are told: "that's it. Brexit is too difficult, because we are in too deep. We have to go back in to the EU, and be subject to EU law, EU courts, and unelected EU politicians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
I know that if you’re struggling to get by on your current wages, you don’t need a mass influx of competition for your job from people who will happily do it for less money and live in worse conditions, and if I were an employer, I’d be rubbing my hands together at the prospect, and tempted to demonise anyone who threatened it.
Presumably you also think that people should be stopped from working beyond their county boundaries. The same argument applies. All those nasty young men from Lincolnshire seeking work in Sheffield. The Steel City industrialists are selling out the good folk of South Yorkshire by employing them.
You’d presume incorrectly
So what is it about the invaders from Lincolnshire swarming across the border that you are ok with, when you can't stand the idea of a Danish decorator painting the walls of a house up the street? Spoiler, I already know the answer to this.
Er, you clearly missed the bit where the Lib Dems, the third biggest party, and gaining, have now come out for simple Revoke. Meanwhile the Opposition is promising a referendum, with Remain-and-maybe-become-a-Fascist-state-who-cares on the ballot paper.
LDs are only for outright revoke if they gain an outright majority (a 1.5% chance on betfair), if they do somehow win a majority the countrys views on Brexit will have shifted significantly. The other 98.5% of the time they will support campaigns for a 2nd ref.
The LD position is for revoke if they can get that position through parliament by themselves or with support from other MPs holding the same position. Otherwise they will support a 2nd referendum as a fallback option, having already said that they will ignore the result again if it isn't to their liking.
Have you got a citation for that last one, out of interest?
Remainers who so blithely want to Remain - as if it's a decision akin to going back to the pub - oliticians, and we will stay in forever, because we have proved that leaving is impossible.
"You are not a sovereign people. You haven't been sovereign for some time. Your nation is over."
That is pretty much the perfect soil in which to grow our first far right populist leader. I cannot imagine a better scenario for the birth of British Fascism. Discuss.
Yeah obviously there will be a load of aggro if we don’t leave, it will probably enable decades of far right parties doing well. All because rich people who want mass immigration can’t understand what it is like to be a poor person under those conditions.
And what do you know about being a poor person?
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
Disclaimer, I live on disability benefits and have direct experience of work capability assessment and PIP assessment. I can speak from a position of what would be described as relatively poor (before disability I had well paid work both employed and self employed) Politicians as a whole have very little idea of what poverty, living on low income etc are like The current disability benefits regime is a disgrace, and I haven't even had the pleasure of migration to Universal Credit yet. From my perspective the damage of further delay to Brexit and associated eyes off the ball on domestic issues outweighs the potential damage of leaving WITH DEAL, although if it were 2016 I would vote remain, but it's not so get it done. Life on benefits isn't easy, but its definitely possible as a single person, I'd loathe to have to try and support a family, it was very tough when I was living with my partner who had a low paid job but that all ended so I'm probably actually better off now I'm alone, financially if not emotionally. It's a very different life than that when I had means a few years ago, and I'll be honest I had no idea, so I'm not sure how politicians could possibly properly understand. I'm very much still led by my old habits politically in the main despising the hard left, hence just wanting to ensure the failure of corbynism/labour. I dont really care once we Brexit with a deal what happens as long as Corbyn is kept out, I truly believe he would trash the economy and thus make things even harder for me.
A valuable insight. I hope life gets better for you.
No worries there, as long as I can play chess and research things that interest me, eat and stay warm theres not much more needed. Money isn't really all that.
Comments
However as with most things legal it’s alot more complicated .
The line on the T31 was that it would be more affordable and therefore have much greater export potential but they've ended up picking the biggest and most expensive variant with very limited export potential.
The tories absolutely despise those parts of the armed forces that actually do the fighting.
Openers not looking comfortable. But they are making an effort.
Even in the very latest YouGov, showing only a 9% overall lead, 31% of C2DEs would vote Conservative compared to 24% Labour. And with 23% of C2DEs intending to vote for the Brexit Party, whose supporters have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of Johnson than Corbyn, there is quite a bit of potential for that 31% to rise further.
Most leavers don't seem to support them, but some seem to really revel in their presence. It's very odd.
10% of the Labour faily strong leavers are 50/50 about voting Conservative.
Apart from very unlikely to vote Conservative, the rest is all background noise.
Labour fairly strong leavers will be about 20% of all Labour voters.
So 0.2*0.1*0.5= 1% of 2017 Labour voters are preidicted to vote Conservative this time (plus a bit of noise).
There are not many outright remainers around despite leavers assuming remainers are the enemy. Most have come to terms with at least one of soft Brexit or 2nd ref for the reasons you outline, rather than soft Brexit being intrinsically better than membership. It is better mostly because of the instability that remain would cause.
If being outside was so good, we wouldn’t have any issue leaving.
Once again the case has been dismissed. The decision of the Inner House looks quite isolated at the moment but who knows what might happen once this gets to the SC?
It makes no sense to me. Not to mention that working class also includes those under retirement age who do not work.
I suppose working class which doesnt include most of those who work fits in well with a conservative and unionist party that is neither conservative nor unionist.
In my defence, I didn't think I was expressing any kind of optimism.
Expect a clatter of wickets.
What does Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees Mogg know about being a poor person?
Nothing. That is what.
https://www.rte.ie/amp/1075402/?__twitter_impression=true
Your question supposes that the "British People" are a uniform block and will all react the same way. We know that is not the case. Assuming that the 2016 percentages still hold...
- A third of the electorate could not be bothered voting. They did not care then, they may not care now
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- Another third wanted to Remain so I imagine that they will be happy
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- That leaves (just over) one third, many of whom are reportedly showing Brexit fatigue or are adamantly against No Deal.
So on the 2016 figures, about 66% of the "British People" will not be bothered, an indeterminate chunk of the Leave block is probably more concerned with getting on with life.Next we need to factor in two more things:
- The Yellowhammer report is no longer has "Plausible Denialibity". It is an Official UK Govt Document. It shows the messiness and drawbacks in their full glory. People reading it are unlikely to say "Yes! That is what I want! That sort of disaster!!"
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- The demographic change. Unpopular around this parish, but many Leavers have popped their clogs and many Remainers have come on the the Electoral Roll. So that 2:1 split above maybe more like 75:25
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There will not be riots on the streets. The proletariat will not be rising up for a glorious revolution and fascism will not be the next popular social trend.People may well grumble and complain, but most of them have lives, jobs, families and problems of their own to deal with. Brexit is a second or third order issue for most people.
I am a northerner myself having grown up in West Yorks and I really don't think there is a line which can be drawn to separate where the tories become acceptable and where they are not.. Take South Yorkshire for example.. Its perfectly reasonable that Penistone and Stockbridge and Don Valley could be tory gains at the next election due to some lab- tory switching but there will be zero switching like that in any Sheffield seats..
What people do forget is that a large number of labour working class voters will never vote tory but they will vote Brexit party and every one which does is worth 0.5 of a direct switcher to the cons.. I can see brexit hoovering up labour votes across South Yorkshire which may just help the odd tory slip in..
Equal, possibly even more trenchant, criticism could be made of the leave side. The idiotic votes against May's deal by the ERG were a disgrace, the use of prorogation (whatever the legal rights and wrongs of it may prove to be) was an abuse of our constitution which essentially relies to a dangerous degree on those in office doing the right thing and acting responsibly and the lies being told about the supposedly ongoing negotiations with the EU are just offensive because it is treating us like idiots.
There's plenty of blame and hypocrisy to go around, more than enough for all involved.
However in terms of weight , that court is higher than either the English or NI courts which have ruled so far .
We have to wait to tomorrow to see the full opinion from the Scottish Court .
Brexit is not impossible, it is just very difficult. But we can work from first principles and say "well, we would have to not implement an impossible policy, even if democratically demanded, so what is the stress test on a very difficult policy?" I do not think Brexit meets that very difficult stress test, even if it will have massively negative impacts. I do think that No Deal fails this stress test as morally heinous, although not to the same degree as the example above.
The obvious answer is a Norway style deal, where we are still members of the SM and accept the stuff that comes with it. That was what many leavers argued for during the referendum, the referendum was won on a very tight margin, so obviously the method of leaving should be one that is not as radical a departure from the status quo as those being suggested.
I personally agree not leaving the EU would lead to a rise in the far right.
I also think any post Brexit economic downturn will lead to a rise in the far right.
I do not think Britain has an option that doesn't lead to an increase in the far right, because too many politicians have broken the way our system of government works and have stoked bigotry for too long. Too many politicians argue that leavers have been stabbed in the back by traitors and remainers, that enemies from without and within hate the country and that the "will of the people" will never be enacted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9inDNkrzIGw
All this is ultimately about having agency - naff sociology word but it describes it well. People feel powerless. Their day-to-day lives are not as good as they thought they'd be (zero-hours contracts, ever-climbing bills, can't afford a house etc. etc.) and they can't see any way to change that. So when the first chance comes along to vote out one of the pantomime villains, they take it. This is why "Take back control" was the literal Leave slogan: the appeal was "you can regain your agency", not just over laws but over your whole life. This is Brexit 101 and I don't need to explain all this.
So what the whole Brexit farrago proves is: you were powerless, you thought you could change things, you can't, you're still powerless. (Those of us of a Remain persuasion will argue that the "you can't" is because you were lied to and the politicians you elected are inept arseholes, but that's not really important.)
I genuinely don't know how that plays out. Disaffection is probably more likely than fascism. About the one good thing that FPTP has going for it is that it keeps a lid on fascism. The best-case scenario is that all stays peaceful until a competent government comes along and starts to actually address people's life chances, but there's no sign of a competent government on the horizon.
Corbyn, bless his cotton socks, does at least try to articulate an answer, by addressing the root cause of people's day-to-day lives not being any good. He's catastrophically inept and nationalising the water board isn't going to make the slightest difference to anyone, but the rationale is there.
In those circumstances, the prorogation would be overturned - it needs to be lawful throughout the UK to be effective, two out of three isn't enough.
In practice, I suspect the Supreme Court will pragmatically find a way to arrive at a decision which interprets the law in each part of the UK as consistent in this area - i.e. it will either overturn Scotland, or England/Wales and Northern Ireland. But it certainly doesn't have to do that (indeed, it could in theory overturn all three decisions and say prorogation was lawful in Scotland but not anywhere else in the UK!)
Now we've established my poverty credentials, I've got one think to say:
Fuck Brexit.
That's millions of people who might consider voting for extreme parties, to enact their revenge, and get their country back.
Remainers are juggling with hand grenades, yet they think they juggle with tennis balls. It is madness.
That the Queen let the CPS know that she had a conversation with Burrell , regarding Diana's property.This was when the trial was in progress.
Apologies can not attach the reports.
Does that not make you think?
In an incredible show of chutzpath McDougall is trying to claim some kind of victory just now despite 13 Type 26s not being planned to be built..
You keep bringing up poverty as a pro-Brexit trump card but you don't speak for me and you don't speak for the poor in general. So cram it, fool.
Which is it?
Brexiteers have no answer to that key point, and never have done.
I fear the future, if Remain wins. I fear the future, if No Deal "wins".
We desperately need a deal. Any deal. These fucking useless MPs need to see that disaster is just over the hill, and coming our way. Ludicrous ultra-Remainers like Grieve, or Soubry, and their equivalents on the No Deal side, have to be thrown in a very deep pit, and kept their until this is done.
The issue of law for the SC is what limits, if any, courts should set on the government powers to advise prorogation.
There have been a few attempts to establish a discrete Scottish constitutional legal system over the years, typically by reference to some clause in the Act of Union. They have never got anywhere and arguments that the Claim of Right is somehow materially different from the Bill of Rights in this context will similarly fail.
I only recently came back here after a long break and it is a lot more sharp tongued than I (possibly incorrectly) recall but I would like to record my thanks to the administrators and all the posters for making this such an interesting place.
Politicians as a whole have very little idea of what poverty, living on low income etc are like
The current disability benefits regime is a disgrace, and I haven't even had the pleasure of migration to Universal Credit yet.
From my perspective the damage of further delay to Brexit and associated eyes off the ball on domestic issues outweighs the potential damage of leaving WITH DEAL, although if it were 2016 I would vote remain, but it's not so get it done.
Life on benefits isn't easy, but its definitely possible as a single person, I'd loathe to have to try and support a family, it was very tough when I was living with my partner who had a low paid job but that all ended so I'm probably actually better off now I'm alone, financially if not emotionally.
It's a very different life than that when I had means a few years ago, and I'll be honest I had no idea, so I'm not sure how politicians could possibly properly understand.
I'm very much still led by my old habits politically in the main despising the hard left, hence just wanting to ensure the failure of corbynism/labour. I dont really care once we Brexit with a deal what happens as long as Corbyn is kept out, I truly believe he would trash the economy and thus make things even harder for me.
Ah, PB at noon. Love it.
USN requirements are very different. Their ships tend to be more heavily armed with comprehensive sensor suites and bigger complements. Generally, they are actually designed, built and crewed with fighting wars in mind,
Likewise, it needs a lot of calm explanation as to why the current impasse, in which a genuinely tiny number of MPs are voting against their 2017 GE party and personal campaign positions, is deeply democratic in its nature. Neither the impasse nor the GE provide a get out from the 2016 result, but to actually deliver the result, both impasse and GE need full respect, parliament needs full respect.
Yes, it may give a window for the far right and that is exacerbated because we have spent too long flapping like weather vanes rather than trying to explain calmly where we are coming from (myself included). It is very late in the day to be doing so, let us hope not too late to arrest some of these hazards.
I guess that would be a more valid riot in your opinion.
Someone told me today that she didn't normally vote, but this time she would be inclined to vote for Boris because he could get us out of the EU if anyone could.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/13/workers-eastern-europe-uk-eu-employment-pay-growth
Not that politics should always be about what is best for oneself I know.
Greetings, Greg. All well?
The Lab position is to go back to the EU and negotiate a new deal that will be put to the country as a binary choice with revoke as the other option and the one which Lab will support regardless. The EU will duly oblige by offering up a new deal that all but requires UK families to kill their first born in order to ensure that this time we tick the right box.
But Remainers ARE actively fighting Brexit, in any form, certainly these past weeks. Ultra-Remain MPs sense total victory, and they won't accept any deal. And they are gaining in confidence at the worst time - see the Lib Dems coming out for Revoke.
At that point you go for damage limitation, which is to sign up for just about every EU programme going except membership itself. It's not a sensible outcome. It's the least damaging outcome.
PS I don't particularly blame Theresa May for Brexit being the mess I confidently expected it to be.
What the f*** is the point of insisting on a backstop, if the result is that What we need is a pragmatic deal that will take us out of the political structures but leave us in the economic structures.
Spoiler, I already know the answer to this.