Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Very English Vice
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Very English Vice
Where would we be without hypocrisy? It may have been described (by a Frenchman, unsurprisingly) as “the tribute vice pays to virtue” but a life of complete virtue would be, frankly, intolerable.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1172020016801374208?s=21
For me the Bercow resignation announcement was beyond hypocrisy and bordering on odious. Parliament supposedly being dissolved against its will and with insufficient time to debate even longer the agonies of Brexit spends 80 odd minutes of its last day praising someone who has done so much damage to the institution that he was appointed to as well as behaving disgracefully towards his staff. But some of the speeches were hypocrisy at its finest.
Farage and the DUP would furiously denounce the betrayal, and I guess if Boris did the matter of confidence thing again he'd lose a bunch of Tory MPs and their otherwise safe seats to BXP.
I think Corbyn would take that opportunity to VONC for a new election. I assume he'd whip against the WA again, he wouldn't want to hand Boris a victory like that going into the election.
230 Labour MPs voted for Customs Union Brexit
32 SNP MPs voted for Common Market 2.0
Nearly all Conservative remainers, rebels and loyalists alike, voted for Mays deal
All that leaves is a few stragglers, LDs, CUK and the ERG who will not vote for Brexit.
The remainer majority of MPs have proven individually would accept their preferred type of Brexit. The issue is they cannot collectively agree on it because their party leaderships on both sides are more interested in playing games.
"The issue is they cannot collectively agree on it because their party leaderships on both sides are more interested in playing games."
But that can't be true. Surely MPs are sent as representatives not as delegates? That's has been their cry?
Surely they're not just puppets of whoever is their leader at the time?
If so, wouldn't it be better if they were puppets of the electorate?
But Boris used the Facebook q&a (preselected questions obvs) to specifically refute that he intends a Northern Ireland only backstop.
Common agri rules on the island of Ireland makes obvious sense and maybe the DUP have now agreed to this. At a big picture level this is all you really need, unless you think Toyota and Apple are going to smuggle goods over the border to arbitrage tariff differentials. At a smaller scale, the IRA and other criminal gangs already make good business doing cross border VAT and duty smuggling. Adding tariffs to the game isn’t going to change much.
It is such a solvable problem if there’s common goodwill that it’s actually become a crushingly tedious argument.
So Boris comes back to Parliament with his Deal. It requires a NI-only backstop. The DUP will be grumpy, but bought off with Freeport status for the whole of NI together with a feasability study for a direct bridge/tunnel combo to Scotland (note: to be funded by the UK Govt. - so long as Scotland is still in the UK.)
It willl then come to the Parliamentary showdown - Boris's Deal or No Deal. The ERG might be pissed. But this is where Boris plays the loyalty card: Boris's Deal is a confidence vote too - if they vote against it, they lose the Whip. They can join Grieve and all in the wilderness.
The Benn Act is made irrelevent by the EU. But relevent to domestic politics, in terms of how all those who voted for Benn did so because they - supposedly - were railing against the horrors of No Deal. (And no, not that they wanted to kill Brexit. No sirree. Not at all....) The Benn Brigade MIGHT show their true colours and try to have a vote on revoke. It will fail. So now, after saying how No Deal is impossible to inflict on the people of the UK, they will have little option but to support the Boris Deal.
Boris gets a big bounce for sorting Brexit. The Labour Party will try desperately to prevent an election. But by then, there will be little to stop the SNP and the LibDems going for one. Corbyn will be exposed as The Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit. He gets hammered.
Listen to yourself.
Edit: BBC confirms (a) to be produced across the UK (which is entirely to be expected in the nature of such things) and (b) very cheap - at least at present - compared to the sort of thing that was to hjave been built before.
The EU should say "here's the deal but no further extension".
Expect a clarification from
DomNumber 10 in 5, 4, 3, 2, ...While many will not be the same MPs the Venn diagram intersect of Tory sceptics OK with Maastricht (with whip threat) but not ok with the deal (with the same threat) will be tiny.
Hes totally trapped. Labour will never back a Boris deal, not the 40-50 who are needed. The EU might say no more extensions but they've talked tough before and backed down, they wont slam the door like that. Without an enforced choice between deal and no deal the votes just arent there - May and Boris have never been able to convince parliament there are no other options, remain or unicorn have always seemed viable.
So unless the EU play ball it just doesnt work and why would they do that? Frustration? I'm sure they are, but they too have played for time if they give a nice big extension this time the door is open to ref and remain, they can see the reports of any Boris plan. The Boris deal is already dead.
If you are a Conservative MP, a good deal was the aim, but the manifesto restating that No Deal is better than a Bad Deal expressedly legitimised the two way split. Many of the never No Dealers are also covered by continuing to think May's deal is a good deal and anti No Deal declarations in their own campaign literature.
Overall, I would say, fewer than 10/650 MPs are voting unfaithfully to their party and personal manifesto positions at GE17.
The Brexit impasse is thus extremely democratic and government should have recognised, respected and worked to square that impasse earlier, rather than try increasingly desperate attempt to bulldoze it out of the way, the exception being May's perfunctory attempt, made only after her authority to get such things through her party was shot.
Yes, parliament has a majority of MPs who voted remain, but the @DavidL 2016 Remainer Majority is not the relevant barrier here, that is an untruth that has circled the world several times. There is a substantial majority of MPs who are sincerely pro-delivery of the base democratic mandate of the referendum , the problem is they do not carte blanche accept all forms of Brexit. It is this pro-delivery majority that has fractured, not 'Remainers'
Remain MPs either will vote down any deal or are putting party politics ahead of getting a deal. Which is it?
Alas, all evidence suggests we do not live in that world.
Labour didn't. The Lib Dems didn't. The SNP didn't. The DUP didn't.
Most of the Conservative MPs did. The vast majority of the rest opposed.
The decision was made after a thorough examination of the Navy's needs which boiled down to, "Which ship is the biggest job creation scheme for Scotland?"
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1171883889796767746?s=20
First reply.
https://twitter.com/Stephen00105059/status/1171898416135364614?s=20
After Bercow (a Labour Speaker in all but name who himself followed Labour's Michael Martin and Betty Boothroyd) Tory and DUP MPs might feel they are due a Speaker of their own
1. It gives a way to avoid an EU-wide recession.
2. There is a new team coming in. They don't want to be dealing with this shit months and maybe years into their new term. The outgoing team can own the deal.
3. The EU is pragmatic enough to know that Brexit delayed is not Brexit killed. It will poison UK politics and likely lead to a hard No Deal Brexit party being elected in the next couple of years. Our membership is only temporary. We might as well leave now.
4. A grumpy UK "member" still in, with a veto over budgets etc. is too much of a pain to want to live with.
He will not do a pact with Farage and as Yougov and Opinium and Kantar shows can win a Tory majority even with the Brexit Party on about 12 to 13% as Cameron did in 2015 with UKIP on 12% (remember Farage is taking Labour votes too now as he did in 2015)
Hypocrisy is indeed one of those interesting things - as you say, Boris Johnson, like all populists, says only what he thinks the audience in front of him (or behind him if in the Commons) want to hear. It's inconsistently consistent but it's so much easier to have a crowd like you than loathe you.
The other aspect of hypocrisy is ploughing through years of an individual's social media output for the slightest hint of scandal or deviation from the Party line. It's as though we want our politicians to be like us except not to have the slightest indiscretion nor to have ever changed their mind about anything. That's how you end up with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.
People change their minds all the time yet it seems we yearn for politicians who never do. People make mistakes and say things they shouldn't all the time yet we yearn for politicians who are paragons of virtue.
I suppose it comes down to the politics of yourself (arguing for policies from which you would personally benefit) versus the politics of everyone (arguing for policies which you believe would benefit society as a whole). I'd like better schools, better roads, better care for the elderly and strong armed forces and I'll find that pledge in every manifesto but I know that costs and we end up arguing over priorities (and other Greek philosophers).
Is it hypocritical to want a better world and expect someone else to pay for it or is it hypocritical to want a better world and expect everyone else to pay for it?
And I’m sure some countries are realizing that Brexit could be put out of its misery if Bozo can’t get a deal through .
So what do they do ?
Bizarely imo we’ve never been closer to a deal but also never been closer to stopping Brexit .
If Bozo comes back with anything the pressure on MPs will be massive .
As a bona fide Northerner I still see and hear references from Labour voters to what they see as the evil perpetrated by Lady Thatcher. The miners’ strike is still mentioned more than 35 years after the event, usually as a reason not to vote Tory.
Mentioned by whom ?
We're in an era where Hallam is Labour and Derbyshire NE is Conservative.
Just as there are differences between regions there are differences within regions.
All those who think that nothing can be achieved by Boris in the way of a deal, I'd just remind them these same voices were saying that May would never get an initial WA deal either.....
Stuff goes on in the background.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49669811
https://twitter.com/KenBroughton_/status/1172053629836156931?s=20
This is how the Express reported the interview, on 26 August:
The Prime Minister also promised that in the event of a no deal Brexit citizens would still be able to get their medication.
After numerous scare stories appeared alleging that Brits could be in danger of not receiving their medicines due to customs problems at ports, Mr Johnson “guaranteed” that would not be the case.
He said: "That is certainly a guarantee that we can make."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1170094/melania-trump-news-latest-FLOTUS-G7-summit-2019-president-donald-trump-boris-johnson
This is what the government's assessment really says:
"The BDG/DfT planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst case flow rate that could be as low as 40% D1ND via the short Channel Straits, with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies.
The reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits. Supply chains are also highly regulated and require transportation that meets strict Good Distribution Practices. This can include limits on time of transit, or mean product must be transported under temperature controlled conditions. Whilst some products can be stockpiled, others cannot due to short shelf lives - it will also not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months. DHSC is developing a multi-layered approach to mitigate these risks. (DHSC)"
So in this assessment, the flow of goods along the supply route by which three quarters of medicines are imported could be reduced by more than half for a period of more than six months.
Some products are impossible to stockpile anyway because of their shelf life. And the expected duration of the disruption will make it impractical to stockpile even medicines with a long shelf life.
I am thankful that I don't rely on medication myself.
She signed up to what the EU put before her and got rebuffed with the two largest rejections by Parliament in modern history.
A deal is not a deal unless all parties can ratify it.
That's like me saying Parliament should ratify any deal to avoid no deal but won't because of party politics ... then you quote me claiming I said Parliament would ratify any deal.
Info from Britain Elects.
Is this still a convention to your knowledge?
Solution is to mitigate then it isn't unmitigated.
Funnily enough you forgot to highlight the mitigation plans mentioned after the what would happen if it was unmitigated.
Let me ask you based on your previous - which is more important, defeating Jeremy Corbyn or leaving the European Union?
It is a huge one way gamble for Johnson if he tries that course. Failing to get a deal not that dissimilar to Mays through parliament will mean that Johnson will be anything but triumphant, and will have lived up to all those Brexiteer suspicions of betrayal. The Conservatives will suffer a significant reversal in the polls, losing votes to a Brexit Party still unlikely to win any significant number of seats, at which point the opposition parties will be very content for there to be a GE asap.
One of them couldn't have been more than 25 years old and he said his Dad would chuck him out of the house if he voted Tory because of the miners' strike.
I heard the same from a friend who was canvassing in Stocksbridge in 2017.
The Extinction Rebellion protest in Sheffield on Monday had an anti Thatcher banner which was ironic as she was supposed to have destroyed the coal industry, something I thought the Extinction Rebellion would have supported.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-history
Hmmmmm. Well at least he loves cats. Russian cats probably.
We need to ask ourselves some pretty difficult questions about the kind of society we want to live in. As a generalisation, we work too long and sleep too little. Perhaps it would be no bad thing to slow down the tread mill and take some time out.
I see them at East Ham tube station at 7am every morning when I go into the office - if you want to paralyse modern Britain, don't cut off fuel or food, just cut off energy drinks and most people will be asleep within a few hours.
Theresa May signed an agreement going against her parties original plans and closer to her opponents plans originally. If we'd left on her Deal we would still be trading as if we were in the Single Market and customs union still.
Tory rebels put what they see as the national interest above the party political interest of following the party whip.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1172056810313920512?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1172058091401154560?s=20
Signed, an idiot.
The other current trickiness is that the planned end of transition (Dec 2020) is now rapidly approaching, and given our performance so far, I'm not convinced we'd conclude that relationship by then. So we'll be up against another cliff-edge then if Boris relies on the vim and vigour of his newly-enfeebled four-man team in Brussels, or he and JRM will have to troop through the lobby for a deal with an even longer period of vassalage attached. Which would be a sight to behold.
The 18% of 2017 Labour voters now voting LD and the 8% of Labour voters now voting Brexit Party also boosts the Tories under FPTP in Labour held marginal seats
Spoiler alert - They did not.
She came up with red lines unilaterally that limited the options and blocked out the preferred Labour/SNP brexits.
The instability in the tory party from her poor leadership put Labour in a position of having to choose a blind Brexit where the Tories could be hijacked by the ERG post WA to create a different outcome to that which May proposed.
Tone - With us or against us, enemies of the people, no deal is better than a bad deal when she doesnt believe any of those statements, just thought it made her look tough for her electorate.
Good old Lancastrians, they always call a spade a spadem.
Prior to retirement I'd been doing that sort of work for a dozen or so years, as had many colleagues.
Depressing to find we obviously weren't very good at what we were supposed to do! Either that or, as with Lansley's NHS reforms 'doctors knew better".
"Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards" - John Redwood
"There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside" - David Davis
"I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement concluded before March 2019" - David Davis again
"Within two years, before negotiations with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU" - David Davis one more time