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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Where do we go from here and

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Where do we go from here and what do the public make of it all?

After the most chaotic week in Westminster since the last one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi sit down and discuss how it is all playing out in the court of public opinion and where we go from here.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited September 2019
    First - Bullseye!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,711
    I just wonder.

    Aus arguably should really be 3-0 up - ie if they had won at Headingley and win today.

    But they are again struggling to make the final step over the line - just wonder if he hold out again today and then win final Test to win Ashes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    The never ending Brexit, ah-ee-ah-ee-ah

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170591686378041344
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    F1: post-race ramble:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/09/italy-post-race-analysis-2019.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    There's a huge load of bull in that picture.

    And a massive male of the bovine species.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    ... because the last one worked like a charm ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    It also puts pressure on Johnson's No Deal bluff. The EU are pointing out that they will not give concessions simply to avoid No Deal.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Bullshitters the pair of them.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Never work with children, animals or Dominic Cummings.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeL said:

    I just wonder.

    Aus arguably should really be 3-0 up - ie if they had won at Headingley and win today.

    But they are again struggling to make the final step over the line - just wonder if he hold out again today and then win final Test to win Ashes.

    Could easily have been 3-0 England - 122/8, Rain at Lords...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019
    Why is the man doing silly walk in the picture is he a minister?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Chris said:

    animals or Dominic Cummings.

    Isn't that a tautology?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    It also puts pressure on Johnson's No Deal bluff. The EU are pointing out that they will not give concessions simply to avoid No Deal.
    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    You don't really want "clarity" you want to us to fall for Cumming's cunning plan and have a GE before the sh1t hits the fan. No dice I'm afraid, Cummings has been rumbled and nobody trusts Johnson's word on anything. You are going to have to sweat it out till Oct 31st and that's when the game changes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    nichomar said:

    Why is the man doing silly walk in the picture is he a minister?

    Bodyguard.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    It also puts pressure on Johnson's No Deal bluff. The EU are pointing out that they will not give concessions simply to avoid No Deal.
    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.
    In other words it's better for the EU to call Johnson's bluff and start imposing consequences on the UK.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    TGOHF said:


    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.

    The practical data point on this is that when the No Deal legislation passed, GBP went up, quite a lot, where as on your theory it should have gone down because the British economy would be suffering from the dither and uncertainty.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    It also puts pressure on Johnson's No Deal bluff. The EU are pointing out that they will not give concessions simply to avoid No Deal.
    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.
    In other words it's better for the EU to call Johnson's bluff and start imposing consequences on the UK.
    And themselves. But there are bad outcomes for another delay too for the EU.

    So why would either side delay ?

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nichomar said:

    Why is the man doing silly walk in the picture is he a minister?

    Bodyguard.
    John Cleese I think
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nichomar said:

    Why is the man doing silly walk in the picture is he a minister?

    Bodyguard.
    Dominic Cummings?

    Oh, sorry, thought the 'l' was an 'n'.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edmundintokyo said:

    TGOHF said:


    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.

    The practical data point on this is that when the No Deal legislation passed, GBP went up, quite a lot, where as on your theory it should have gone down because the British economy would be suffering from the dither and uncertainty.
    Modern exchange rates are a combination of a reflection of the value of the currency in the traditional sense and a significant element of currency traders 'positions' to make a profit. Those positions will not be the same as the value ascribed to the currency in a traditional sense.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nichomar said:

    Why is the man doing silly walk in the picture is he a minister?

    Bodyguard.
    Dominic Cummings?

    Oh, sorry, thought the 'l' was an 'n'.
    Took me a minute...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Priti Patel resigning because she thinks Johnson is going to sell out the Brexiteers? :wink:
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    williamglenn said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Priti Patel resigning because she thinks Johnson is going to sell out the Brexiteers? :wink:
    Lol! It's probably Nicky Morgan
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Is anyone running a book on who will be all out first - the cabinet or the England cricket team?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    ydoethur said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Is anyone running a book on who will be all out first - the cabinet or the England cricket team?
    You jinxed it again. Butler bowled playing no shot.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Hopefully Bozo himself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Buttler served that up on a plate.

    England to be beaten by 5.30.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Will Hancock do a “Fuck fuck fuck fuck business” manoeuvre?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Telegraph from selling a million now down to 350,000. Not everyone is as big a fan as Chris Evans perhaps?

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2019/sep/08/telegraph-boris-johnson
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    nichomar said:

    Why is the man doing silly walk in the picture is he a minister?

    Looks like a goose-step. Rehearsing for the Tory conference. In Nuremberg.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    dyedwoolie said:

    williamglenn said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Priti Patel resigning because she thinks Johnson is going to sell out the Brexiteers? :wink:
    Lol! It's probably Nicky Morgan
    !,000,000 it's not Matt Hancock. The machinery to get his head out of Johnson's backside hasn't yet been invented
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Not sure it’s going to happen . Those likely seem to have said they’re not resigning and I can’t think of anyone else that would be likely to go.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    SandyRentool said:

    nichomar said:

    Why is the man doing silly walk in the picture is he a minister?

    Looks like a goose-step. Rehearsing for the Tory conference. In Nuremberg.
    Not your best work.....
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    This sentence sounds like a scientist picking up signals from machinery, for some reason.

    The obscure workings of the cabinet machine may yet surprise us.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019
    nico67 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Not sure it’s going to happen . Those likely seem to have said they’re not resigning and I can’t think of anyone else that would be likely to go.
    Has Morgan said anything? I think its her
    Although of course westminster will be rife with rumours today
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    The fata morgana shining in the distance.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,263
    williamglenn said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    It also puts pressure on Johnson's No Deal bluff. The EU are pointing out that they will not give concessions simply to avoid No Deal.
    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.
    In other words it's better for the EU to call Johnson's bluff and start imposing consequences on the UK.
    Or perhaps the Irish political conspiracy of silence is about to break.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    dyedwoolie said:

    nico67 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Forsyth saying he is picking up rumors of another imminent cabinet resignation.......

    Not sure it’s going to happen . Those likely seem to have said they’re not resigning and I can’t think of anyone else that would be likely to go.
    Has Morgan said anything? I think its her
    Although of course westminster will be rife with rumours today
    I thought she said she’s sticking around . If something happens it probably won’t be till much later . I have the popcorn handy just in case !
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    WhisperingOracle said:

    The fata morgana shining in the distance.

    Well they're all at sea.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    MattW said:

    williamglenn said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Government is back-channelling to the French or the Irish or the Croats asking them to block an extension?

    Not sure about blocking an extension but it does seem to me the Opposition are coming under some pressure from the EU today to allow a general election so everyone can get clarity.
    It also puts pressure on Johnson's No Deal bluff. The EU are pointing out that they will not give concessions simply to avoid No Deal.
    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.
    In other words it's better for the EU to call Johnson's bluff and start imposing consequences on the UK.
    Or perhaps the Irish political conspiracy of silence is about to break.
    The entire political class in Ireland is engaged in a giant bluff?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Not too impressed with that podcast. Both speakers share the obsession of the commentariat with Brexit and no suggestion at all that other issues will resonate. I continue to believe they are wrong.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    edited September 2019
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Police Scotland doing a sterling job of calming nerves in these febrile times.

    https://twitter.com/polscotcontrol/status/1170645529686134784?s=20

    Speaking as somebody who does actually have a go-bag and uses it every week, they left out the change of underpants, little plastic spork, painkillers and headache pills, sowing kit, laptop/tablet/book, earphones, pen/paper and scissors.

    If you get a NorthFace rucksack, a whistle is built into the clasp
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    nichomar said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21

    Did his window move?
    DAMMIT YOU GOT THERE BEFORE ME! :)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Gardenwalker said:

    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21

    Good for him, The Telegraph is rubbish nowadays, only the sports pages are still worth reading.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    philiph said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    TGOHF said:


    The EU economy must be suffering from the dither and uncertainty- best for both sides to get on with it either way. Delay is the worst of the 3 options.

    The practical data point on this is that when the No Deal legislation passed, GBP went up, quite a lot, where as on your theory it should have gone down because the British economy would be suffering from the dither and uncertainty.
    Modern exchange rates are a combination of a reflection of the value of the currency in the traditional sense and a significant element of currency traders 'positions' to make a profit. Those positions will not be the same as the value ascribed to the currency in a traditional sense.
    Plus why use GBP as a proxy for EUR, when EUR data are presumably available? And if what GBP went up against is actually EUR the argument is in serious trouble.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Late afternoon all :)

    Both Delta Poll and now ComRes put the Conservatives back at 31% leaving YouGov and Opinium out there on 35%. A solid ComRes poll for the LDs with the party at 20% which means a 12.5% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem which is pretty significant especially in those places where the LDs are serious challengers.

    In Europe, a few interesting poll snippets. In Germany, an Emnid poll has shown the CDU/CSU eight points ahead of the Greens (29-21), their largest advantage for a while. In Austria, Portugal and Poland, the governing parties all enjoy big leads over the opposition and I don't expect any of those elections to produce big changes in the next month or so.

    In Italy, Lega has been slightly dented by going into opposition. The PD/M5S governing parties poll around 45% between them but whether that would translate into a majority at a future election remains to be seen.

    Finally, in both Spain and the Czech Republic, the governing parties also hold healthy leads over mainly fractured opposition.

    As an aside, fascinating to see governments generally polling well right across Europe irrespective of political stripe.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    This will shortly be only the 3rd time this millennium that the visiting side has won the Ashes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Ishmael_Z said:

    This will shortly be only the 3rd time this millennium that the visiting side has won the Ashes.

    They haven't won it yet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Gardenwalker said:

    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21

    If he is a Remainer opposed to Brexit fair enough. Meanwhile the father of someone I work with, a lifelong working class Labour voter from the North East, will vote Tory for the first time in his life at the next election as he voted Leave and wants Brexit delivered
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    ydoethur said:

    Buttler served that up on a plate.

    England to be beaten by 5.30.

    Good work - another prediction please...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    viewcode said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Police Scotland doing a sterling job of calming nerves in these febrile times.

    https://twitter.com/polscotcontrol/status/1170645529686134784?s=20

    Speaking as somebody who does actually have a go-bag and uses it every week, they left out the change of underpants, little plastic spork, painkillers and headache pills, sowing kit, laptop/tablet/book, earphones, pen/paper and scissors.

    If you get a NorthFace rucksack, a whistle is built into the clasp
    Also passport, spare credit card and £100 cash - actually scrap that, €100 cash. And roll of tinfoil and a gold sovereign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1170725303972442117?s=20
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    This will shortly be only the 3rd time this millennium that the visiting side has won the Ashes.

    They haven't won it yet
    Which is why I used the future tense. No flies on me!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Looking a bit gloomy to me in Manchester. Can the batsmen pick up the ball OK?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited September 2019
    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    Both Delta Poll and now ComRes put the Conservatives back at 31% leaving YouGov and Opinium out there on 35%. A solid ComRes poll for the LDs with the party at 20% which means a 12.5% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem which is pretty significant especially in those places where the LDs are serious challengers.

    In Europe, a few interesting poll snippets. In Germany, an Emnid poll has shown the CDU/CSU eight points ahead of the Greens (29-21), their largest advantage for a while. In Austria, Portugal and Poland, the governing parties all enjoy big leads over the opposition and I don't expect any of those elections to produce big changes in the next month or so.

    In Italy, Lega has been slightly dented by going into opposition. The PD/M5S governing parties poll around 45% between them but whether that would translate into a majority at a future election remains to be seen.

    Finally, in both Spain and the Czech Republic, the governing parties also hold healthy leads over mainly fractured opposition.

    As an aside, fascinating to see governments generally polling well right across Europe irrespective of political stripe.

    Latest Italian seat projections still give a landslide for the right

    Salvini's Right block 410, Centre-left 120, M5S 92

    https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2019/08/26/sondaggi-la-lega-ha-perso-4-punti-dal-giorno-della-crisi-aperta-da-salvini-il-m5s-in-ripresa-ma-il-centrodestra-unito-avrebbe-410-deputati/5410113/
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    Ishmael_Z said:

    This will shortly be only the 3rd time this millennium that the visiting side has won the Ashes.

    Ah, that old trick of using the word "millennium" to make something fairly uninteresting sound amazing.

    This is the 11th Ashes series this millennium, so basically the more likely result of the home side winning has happened eight times and the less likely one of the away side winning looks likely to be happening for a third time. Which is about what you might expect.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    This will shortly be only the 3rd time this millennium that the visiting side has won the Ashes.

    Ah, that old trick of using the word "millennium" to make something fairly uninteresting sound amazing.

    This is the 11th Ashes series this millennium, so basically the more likely result of the home side winning has happened eight times and the less likely one of the away side winning looks likely to be happening for a third time. Which is about what you might expect.
    It's because I am not sure how you spell sentury.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    HYUFD said:


    Latest Italian seat projections still give a landslide for the right

    Salvini's Right block 410, Centre-left 120, M5S 92

    https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2019/08/26/sondaggi-la-lega-ha-perso-4-punti-dal-giorno-della-crisi-aperta-da-salvini-il-m5s-in-ripresa-ma-il-centrodestra-unito-avrebbe-410-deputati/5410113/

    The latest poll has Lega down to 30% with M5S on 24% and PD on 24%. Hard to see a Salvini landslide from that.

    In Canada, meanwhile, the latest poll has the Conservatives and Liberals tied nationally at 34% and also deadlocked in the key province of Ontario:

    https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/Tied-Overall-Tied-in-Ontario

    The Ontario numbers contrast wildly with an EKOS poll also from last week which gives the Liberals an 11 point lead so not sure what's going on.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    viewcode said:

    nichomar said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21

    Did his window move?
    DAMMIT YOU GOT THERE BEFORE ME! :)
    To paraphrase Chandler, Boris is a blond to make a vicar kick a hole in the Overton window....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Ishmael_Z said:

    viewcode said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Police Scotland doing a sterling job of calming nerves in these febrile times.

    https://twitter.com/polscotcontrol/status/1170645529686134784?s=20

    Speaking as somebody who does actually have a go-bag and uses it every week, they left out the change of underpants, little plastic spork, painkillers and headache pills, sowing kit, laptop/tablet/book, earphones, pen/paper and scissors.

    If you get a NorthFace rucksack, a whistle is built into the clasp
    Also passport, spare credit card and £100 cash - actually scrap that, €100 cash. And roll of tinfoil and a gold sovereign.
    Indeed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    viewcode said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Police Scotland doing a sterling job of calming nerves in these febrile times.

    https://twitter.com/polscotcontrol/status/1170645529686134784?s=20

    Speaking as somebody who does actually have a go-bag and uses it every week, they left out the change of underpants, little plastic spork, painkillers and headache pills, sowing kit, laptop/tablet/book, earphones, pen/paper and scissors.

    If you get a NorthFace rucksack, a whistle is built into the clasp
    You’re planning for real disaster if you need a sowing kit - planting your own crops is a pretty long term scenario.

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    Both Delta Poll and now ComRes put the Conservatives back at 31% leaving YouGov and Opinium out there on 35%. A solid ComRes poll for the LDs with the party at 20% which means a 12.5% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem which is pretty significant especially in those places where the LDs are serious challengers.

    In Europe, a few interesting poll snippets. In Germany, an Emnid poll has shown the CDU/CSU eight points ahead of the Greens (29-21), their largest advantage for a while. In Austria, Portugal and Poland, the governing parties all enjoy big leads over the opposition and I don't expect any of those elections to produce big changes in the next month or so.

    In Italy, Lega has been slightly dented by going into opposition. The PD/M5S governing parties poll around 45% between them but whether that would translate into a majority at a future election remains to be seen.

    Finally, in both Spain and the Czech Republic, the governing parties also hold healthy leads over mainly fractured opposition.

    As an aside, fascinating to see governments generally polling well right across Europe irrespective of political stripe.

    Latest Italian seat projections still give a landslide for the right

    Salvini's Right block 410, Centre-left 120, M5S 92

    https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2019/08/26/sondaggi-la-lega-ha-perso-4-punti-dal-giorno-della-crisi-aperta-da-salvini-il-m5s-in-ripresa-ma-il-centrodestra-unito-avrebbe-410-deputati/5410113/
    All looks superb for Salvini... except that he gambled on triggering an early election and lost, is no longer in power, potentially has to wait until 2023 before fresh elections, and has mounting legal trouble. Classic Salv.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited September 2019
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Latest Italian seat projections still give a landslide for the right

    Salvini's Right block 410, Centre-left 120, M5S 92

    https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2019/08/26/sondaggi-la-lega-ha-perso-4-punti-dal-giorno-della-crisi-aperta-da-salvini-il-m5s-in-ripresa-ma-il-centrodestra-unito-avrebbe-410-deputati/5410113/

    The latest poll has Lega down to 30% with M5S on 24% and PD on 24%. Hard to see a Salvini landslide from that.

    In Canada, meanwhile, the latest poll has the Conservatives and Liberals tied nationally at 34% and also deadlocked in the key province of Ontario:

    https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/Tied-Overall-Tied-in-Ontario

    The Ontario numbers contrast wildly with an EKOS poll also from last week which gives the Liberals an 11 point lead so not sure what's going on.

    No, the coalition numbers I provided were based on single party figures of Lega 33%, PD 23%, M5S 19% so not that much different really other than a bit of movement from Lega to M5S, so a Salvini win for the right remains likely. Remember too Forza Italia and Brothers of Italy are both polling about 7% each and both will ally with Salvini.

    In Canada it looks likely Trudeau will lose his majority but as you say he is still tied with the Tories for largest party and still narrowly leads as preferred PM
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Another useful summary:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1170743671316189184?s=20
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,711
    Sensible move - the hypothetical polls have been removed from the Wiki polling listing.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    glw said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21

    Good for him, The Telegraph is rubbish nowadays, only the sports pages are still worth reading.
    My Telegraph subscription has not long to run and I'm struggling for reasons to renew. Plato used to link there a lot, which is why I signed up in the first place (although I soon came to doubt she ever read half the stuff she linked to, and possibly none at all by the end) but its relentless, one-note, wall-to-wall Boris and Brexit coverage is wearing and not even especially insightful.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    ydoethur said:

    Buttler served that up on a plate.

    England to be beaten by 5.30.

    Good work - another prediction please...
    There is no way Leach and Overton can survive 15 overs, and once one of them is out, Broad won't last 15 balls, maybe not even 15 seconds, against Starc.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 694
    edited September 2019
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    glw said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21

    Good for him, The Telegraph is rubbish nowadays, only the sports pages are still worth reading.
    My Telegraph subscription has not long to run and I'm struggling for reasons to renew. Plato used to link there a lot, which is why I signed up in the first place (although I soon came to doubt she ever read half the stuff she linked to, and possibly none at all by the end) but its relentless, one-note, wall-to-wall Boris and Brexit coverage is wearing and not even especially insightful.
    I only get it for the Matt cartoon (and the Saturday cryptic crossword). When Matt goes, my subscription is cancelled.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    HYUFD said:



    In Canada it looks likely Trudeau will lose his majority but as you say he is still tied with the Tories for largest party and still narrowly leads as preferred PM

    Do you think Trudeau could do a deal with either the Greens or the NDP who are both polling at 12% nationally?

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Re: next cabinet exit. If I was going to put money on it, Nicky Morgan feels like the one.

    She last tweeted (on local matters) last night about the time Rudd quit. She was in the same group as Rudd who kicked off about the 21 expulsions, and was a similarly odd choice for the BJ cabinet.

    I guess Julian Smith is another possible.

    I reckon Mancock thinks all his Christmases have come at once by keeping his job so far. Having tweeted his loyalty today and been a bit more obvious than Rudd & Morgan in showing his love for BJ, I’d say he’s hanging around for now. That said, he’ll probably calculate at some point that doing so does his future chances more harm than good if Bozza starts breaking laws etc.

    Anyone else (I’m assuming Shapps is in the same “all my christmases” boat?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    In Canada it looks likely Trudeau will lose his majority but as you say he is still tied with the Tories for largest party and still narrowly leads as preferred PM

    Do you think Trudeau could do a deal with either the Greens or the NDP who are both polling at 12% nationally?

    I expect some of the Green and NDP vote will go to the Liberals by polling day, I doubt there will be an official deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    ydoethur said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    ydoethur said:

    Buttler served that up on a plate.

    England to be beaten by 5.30.

    Good work - another prediction please...
    There is no way Leach and Overton can survive 15 overs, and once one of them is out, Broad won't last 15 balls, maybe not even 15 seconds, against Starc.
    If you get that wrong, you will be a hero......
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Harris_Tweed said:

    Re: next cabinet exit. If I was going to put money on it, Nicky Morgan feels like the one.

    She last tweeted (on local matters) last night about the time Rudd quit. She was in the same group as Rudd who kicked off about the 21 expulsions, and was a similarly odd choice for the BJ cabinet.

    I guess Julian Smith is another possible.

    I reckon Mancock thinks all his Christmases have come at once by keeping his job so far. Having tweeted his loyalty today and been a bit more obvious than Rudd & Morgan in showing his love for BJ, I’d say he’s hanging around for now. That said, he’ll probably calculate at some point that doing so does his future chances more harm than good if Bozza starts breaking laws etc.

    Anyone else (I’m assuming Shapps is in the same “all my christmases” boat?)

    Is there anyone in British politics who has abased themselves more abjectly than Matt Hancock?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    ydoethur said:

    Buttler served that up on a plate.

    England to be beaten by 5.30.

    Good work - another prediction please...
    There is no way Leach and Overton can survive 15 overs, and once one of them is out, Broad won't last 15 balls, maybe not even 15 seconds, against Starc.
    If you get that wrong, you will be a hero......
    Unfortunately it looks as though I haven't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170743319477063680?s=20

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170746134089871366?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    Re: next cabinet exit. If I was going to put money on it, Nicky Morgan feels like the one.

    She last tweeted (on local matters) last night about the time Rudd quit. She was in the same group as Rudd who kicked off about the 21 expulsions, and was a similarly odd choice for the BJ cabinet.

    I guess Julian Smith is another possible.

    I reckon Mancock thinks all his Christmases have come at once by keeping his job so far. Having tweeted his loyalty today and been a bit more obvious than Rudd & Morgan in showing his love for BJ, I’d say he’s hanging around for now. That said, he’ll probably calculate at some point that doing so does his future chances more harm than good if Bozza starts breaking laws etc.

    Anyone else (I’m assuming Shapps is in the same “all my christmases” boat?)

    Is there anyone in British politics who has abased themselves more abjectly than Matt Hancock?
    Tom Watson?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    ydoethur said:

    Buttler served that up on a plate.

    England to be beaten by 5.30.

    Good work - another prediction please...
    There is no way Leach and Overton can survive 15 overs, and once one of them is out, Broad won't last 15 balls, maybe not even 15 seconds, against Starc.
    If you get that wrong, you will be a hero......
    Unfortunately it looks as though I haven't.
    You're rubbish at this, you......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Well done Australia for retaining the Ashes.

    However England can console themselves that they still won the World Cup this summer for the first time
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Boris loses the Ashes ... :rage:
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SandraMc said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    glw said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    https://twitter.com/iainoverton/status/1170641713804828672?s=21

    Good for him, The Telegraph is rubbish nowadays, only the sports pages are still worth reading.
    My Telegraph subscription has not long to run and I'm struggling for reasons to renew. Plato used to link there a lot, which is why I signed up in the first place (although I soon came to doubt she ever read half the stuff she linked to, and possibly none at all by the end) but its relentless, one-note, wall-to-wall Boris and Brexit coverage is wearing and not even especially insightful.
    I only get it for the Matt cartoon (and the Saturday cryptic crossword). When Matt goes, my subscription is cancelled.
    That will be why Matt is reputed to be on north of £600,000. The plug for his new collection includes this snippet from referendum day, shortly before the polls closed: a member of David Cameron’s No 10 team texted the editor to say that Remain had won easily. ‘It’s Remain 55, Leave 45,’ he declared confidently.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/matts-20-favourite-brexit-cartoons-did-worry-mean-theresa-may/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170743319477063680?s=20

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170746134089871366?s=20

    Who is this David Allen Green - never heard of him
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited September 2019
    'Labour's chairman is backing a campaign to abolish all private schools, with party delegates set to consider the policy at their annual conference this month.
    Ian Lavery has thrown his weight behind the Labour Against Private Schools movement which wants all fee-paying schools brought into the state sector.
    'The on-going existence of private schools is incompatible with Labour’s pledge to promote social justice, not social mobility in education,' the motion says.
    'Private schools reflect and reinforce class inequality in wider society.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7440711/Labour-chairman-plans-abolish-fee-paying-schools-tackle-elitism.html
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    In Canada it looks likely Trudeau will lose his majority but as you say he is still tied with the Tories for largest party and still narrowly leads as preferred PM

    Do you think Trudeau could do a deal with either the Greens or the NDP who are both polling at 12% nationally?

    I expect some of the Green and NDP vote will go to the Liberals by polling day, I doubt there will be an official deal
    The significance of Ontario makes the disparity in polling unhelpful. An 11 point Liberal lead would suggest Trudeau holding most of the 80 seats won last time and perhaps picking up one or two more (Liberals won Ontario by 10 points last time) but if the Conservatives are level that would suggest 25 losses for the Liberals which would slash Trudeau's majority. The other question for me is whether we will see a Conservative comeback in Quebec.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    So that is summer officially over 😡

    But they are a better team TBF
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited September 2019
    JackW said:

    Boris loses the Ashes ... :rage:

    So did Thatcher and Blair several times
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170743319477063680?s=20

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170746134089871366?s=20

    Well, that must mean No Deal Brexit will be a breeze, as all the dire predictions require no action.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1170748711200276480
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    I think Ed Smith now has two options.

    He can resign tonight or resign tomorrow morning.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    HYUFD said:

    'Labour's chairman is backing a campaign to abolish all private schools, with party delegates set to consider the policy at their annual conference this month.
    Ian Lavery has thrown his weight behind the Labour Against Private Schools movement which wants all fee-paying schools brought into the state sector.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7440711/Labour-chairman-plans-abolish-fee-paying-schools-tackle-elitism.html

    Their class obsession will cost taxpayers billions, overload state schools creating huge class sizes, transfer enormous salary and pensions costs on to the exchequer, require massive building costs, and is idiotic
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1170748711200276480

    That tweet is definitely abrasive.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170743319477063680?s=20

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1170746134089871366?s=20

    Who is this David Allen Green - never heard of him
    https://davidallengreen.com/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Is there anyone in British politics who has abased themselves more abjectly than Matt Hancock?

    Ghastly man. Surprised his wife stays with him.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Major, May and Johnson are the 3 PMs since 1970 to not have an ashes win in their premiership
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    This is all a ploy by Cummings to win the ashes.
    Can't believe Australia have walked straight into his trap, the idiots.
This discussion has been closed.