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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The current most active UK betting market is on whether Article 50 will be revoked

Yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister that there will be a Queen’s speech in mid October meaning that the number of parliamentary days available for debating Brexit has been drastically reduced has led to to a lot of betting. The current busiest market in terms of money traded is the Betfair one above on whether article 50 will be revoked. Currently that’s rated as a 25% chance but things are developing all the time and this could move up or down.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Primus inter pares.

tlg86

Second like Linfield.

kle4

I still don't think parliament has the balls to do what it clearly wants to do, which is revoke, even with the latest moves to bring things to a head with very limited options. BoJo will get his election, early enough to theoretically let a remain alliance win and extend or revoke at that point I think.

spudgfsh

I can't see A50 being revoked successfully by a Tory PM, and not successfully at all before a second referendum.

kle4

I do think more and more people will bewilling to consider Corbyn temporarily now. Boris has made clear to them that may be the price they need to pay, and he thinks that works for him.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

spudgfsh

kle4 said:

I do think more and more people will bewilling to consider Corbyn temporarily now. Boris has made clear to them that may be the price they need to pay, and he thinks that works for him.

It depends on whether he continues to appear to sit on the fence with the manifesto. If he does it'll look false and people won't vote for him

Scott_P

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Mauve

Point 1: The pathetic inaction of Hancock, Javid and Rudd speaks volumes about their integrity - they deserve humiliation for their arse licking. Along with many other Tory MPs for backing a known liar. As a wise man once wrote "Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten."

Point 2: I voted remain and was prepared to accept a sensible Brexit, but there have been zero attempts made to compromise with remain voters by the leave side. There have been no sensible arguments presented for Brexit beyond magical trade deals (that will be massively disadvantageous to us due to desperation), sovereignty (that we still had many vetoes over), and "the will of the people" (which polls at the time regularly showed both a lack of understanding of the consequences of Brexit, and a lack of favour for the nuclear option).

Point 3: I've never been particularly politically excitable until recently, people with grand visions scare me. It is noticeable that Brexit has morphed from something that will make us richer by escaping EU protectionism into something "that must be done" simply because Farage and the English nationalists in the Tory party wish it to be so. I refuse to "believe in Britain" as if we're somehow special simply because some fat, lying sack of shit ex-journo who threatened to get someone beaten up tells us to. We aren't special, and haven't been for at least 75 years.

I almost want the Brexit cult to get their wish for a dystopian no deal so that we can see them become a laughing stock and be put on trial (in as high a profile way as possible) for being lying scumbags more interested in their hedge funds than the wellbeing of the nation. The only things that stop me are that I don't want Scotland and NI to leave the UK and the likely significant economic damage, both short and long-term.

alex.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

So are the HOC going to spend the short time they’ve got before prorogation trying to pass legislation to (retrospectively?) make it illegal (which in itself undermines the court cases trying to claim that it already is so), or spending it trying to pass legislation to stop nodeal Brexit?

Perhaps they’ll succeed in the former, and then, having won on this important point of principle, all decamp into recess for the Party conferences

Beibheirli_C

FPT:

spudgfsh said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

spudgfsh said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_P said:

Mortimer said:

Expect to be around a bit more after Brexit when the same old arguments have disappeared.

After Brexit? We might all be dead by then...

I remain confident that Brexit will be concluded this year. There won’t be a Tory party left otherwise...

You're missing the point though. There are two scenarios here
1) in the unlikely event we remain, the tories will be an avowedly exit party. there will be more of the same over and over and over again.
2) we exit, in some form, and there will then be another 3 years negotiating the 'future relationship' after which the tories will say it's still not good enough and we end up back here. on top of that you'll have the remain labour people and the lib dems fighting a guerilla war against exit in the same manner that the likes of IDS did in the 90's and 00's

You're missing the point. When the sky comprehensively fails to fall in after October 31, the jig will be up for remainerism, and the more sensible ones know it, which is why they're trying so desperately to stop it now.

After an exit, especially if it causes a crisis in confidence in the economy and thus a recession, there will still be a significant number of people who will want back in. there will be a similar guerrilla warfare to get us back in. that is what I said.

there will be no such thing as 'remainer' once we've actually left but there will be a rejoin movement. This is the folly of the Leavers in charge, they think that an exit will make the other side go away. it won't.

I also suspect that following a no-deal exit the EU will be consistent with the red lines that they've already set out and as such the leavers won't like or vote for any continuing relationship treaty because it's not a 'real exit'.

If I cannot be a "Remainer" then I shall certainly become a "Rejoiner" and push for Schengen and the Euro.

IMO, Boris and his coterie of Nationalists and wreckers are fast pushing the UK towards "Failed state" status. He is already taking the first steps towards dictatorship by avoiding public scrutiny as much as possible (no interviews!!) and closing down Parliament for as long as he can.

I winder when he will get around to abolishing it?

spudgfsh

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT:

spudgfsh said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

spudgfsh said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_P said:

Mortimer said:

Expect to be around a bit more after Brexit when the same old arguments have disappeared.

After Brexit? We might all be dead by then...

I remain confident that Brexit will be concluded this year. There won’t be a Tory party left otherwise...

You're missing the point though. There are two scenarios here
1) in the unlikely event we remain, the tories will be an avowedly exit party. there will be more of the same over and over and over again.
2) we exit, in some form, and there will then be another 3 years negotiating the 'future relationship' after which the tories will say it's still not good enough and we end up back here. on top of that you'll have the remain labour people and the lib dems fighting a guerilla war against exit in the same manner that the likes of IDS did in the 90's and 00's

You're missing the point. When the sky comprehensively fails to fall in after October 31, the jig will be up for remainerism, and the more sensible ones know it, which is why they're trying so desperately to stop it now.

After an exit, especially if it causes a crisis in confidence in the economy and thus a recession, there will still be a significant number of people who will want back in. there will be a similar guerrilla warfare to get us back in. that is what I said.

there will be no such thing as 'remainer' once we've actually left but there will be a rejoin movement. This is the folly of the Leavers in charge, they think that an exit will make the other side go away. it won't.

I also suspect that following a no-deal exit the EU will be consistent with the red lines that they've already set out and as such the leavers won't like or vote for any continuing relationship treaty because it's not a 'real exit'.

If I cannot be a "Remainer" then I shall certainly become a "Rejoiner" and push for Schengen and the Euro.

IMO, Boris and his coterie of Nationalists and wreckers are fast pushing the UK towards "Failed state" status. He is already taking the first steps towards dictatorship by avoiding public scrutiny as much as possible (no interviews!!) and closing down Parliament for as long as he can.

I winder when he will get around to abolishing it?

Schengen and the Euro may be the price of rejoin. They will want to make it as hard as possible to try to leave again.

StuartDickson

SNP shortening in Aberdeen South:

SNP 8/11 (from 5/6)
Con EVS (from 5/6)

(Ladbrokes)

Stereotomy

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

Aren't these the headlines Swinson should be trying to get? Why is she letting Corbyn take the anti-No Deal mantle?

StuartDickson

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

Peter_the_Punter

Scott_P said:

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Creative Destruction?!! Now there's a slogan to go into a General Election with - but for the Conservative Party?!

Eat your heart out, Anarchists. Take a hike, Commie Bastards. You want creative destruction, join the Conservatives!!!

dixiedean

Mauve said:

Point 1: The pathetic inaction of Hancock, Javid and Rudd speaks volumes about their integrity - they deserve humiliation for their arse licking. Along with many other Tory MPs for backing a known liar. As a wise man once wrote "Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten."

Point 2: I voted remain and was prepared to accept a sensible Brexit, but there have been zero attempts made to compromise with remain voters by the leave side. There have been no sensible arguments presented for Brexit beyond magical trade deals (that will be massively disadvantageous to us due to desperation), sovereignty (that we still had many vetoes over), and "the will of the people" (which polls at the time regularly showed both a lack of understanding of the consequences of Brexit, and a lack of favour for the nuclear option).

Point 3: I've never been particularly politically excitable until recently, people with grand visions scare me. It is noticeable that Brexit has morphed from something that will make us richer by escaping EU protectionism into something "that must be done" simply because Farage and the English nationalists in the Tory party wish it to be so. I refuse to "believe in Britain" as if we're somehow special simply because some fat, lying sack of shit ex-journo who threatened to get someone beaten up tells us to. We aren't special, and haven't been for at least 75 years.

I almost want the Brexit cult to get their wish for a dystopian no deal so that we can see them become a laughing stock and be put on trial (in as high a profile way as possible) for being lying scumbags more interested in their hedge funds than the wellbeing of the nation. The only things that stop me are that I don't want Scotland and NI to leave the UK and the likely significant economic damage, both short and long-term.

So you're broadly opposed to this Brexit business then
My feelings on the matter entirely btw.

Peter_the_Punter

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

Well, it's something but it's not exactly The Krakn Wakes, is it.

ab195

I think two things are apparent from the debate today:

1) Nobody actually thinks the PM has acted completely unacceptably. They have to pretend hey do (sometimes even to themselves), but everyone understands Parliament can remove him if it wants on Monday; however

2) He has shown us there’s a gaping hole in the constitution and he could have done (and a future PM might do) something dreadful.

We need to address that, and I think we all have to accept that. In the back of my mind, for example, I can picture a directly elected PM and a removal of the expectation ministers come from Parliament. The Leader of the House remains but sometimes won’t be the same party. The executive would govern, Parliament would legislate, control the piggy bank, and scrutinise through committees. The PM would de facto be an elected head of state and could legitimately use prerogative powers via orders in Council, but we’d get to pretend we were still a monarchy for the ceremony.

Thats’s just one thought. There are other ways. But we need to do something.

StuartDickson

SNP shortening for Most Seats - Next Scottish Parliamentary GE

SNP 1/6 (from 1/5)
Lab 8/1
Con 8/1 (from 7/1)
LD 33/1
Grn 200/1

(Ladbrokes)

Ishmael_Z

alex. said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

So are the HOC going to spend the short time they’ve got before prorogation trying to pass legislation to (retrospectively?) make it illegal (which in itself undermines the court cases trying to claim that it already is so), or spending it trying to pass legislation to stop nodeal Brexit?

Perhaps they’ll succeed in the former, and then, having won on this important point of principle, all decamp into recess for the Party conferences

It doesn't undermine the court cases. There is currently no statute prohibiting murder, but if you passed one that wouldn't imply that it was not previously illegal.

This is called codifying the common law.

alex.

Quite.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/29/parliament-brexit-prorogue-mps-alternative-no-deal

Peter_the_Punter

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

The_Taxman

Mauve said:

Point 1: The pathetic inaction of Hancock, Javid and Rudd speaks volumes about their integrity - they deserve humiliation for their arse licking. Along with many other Tory MPs for backing a known liar. As a wise man once wrote "Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten."

Point 2: I voted remain and was prepared to accept a sensible Brexit, but there have been zero attempts made to compromise with remain voters by the leave side. There have been no sensible arguments presented for Brexit beyond magical trade deals (that will be massively disadvantageous to us due to desperation), sovereignty (that we still had many vetoes over), and "the will of the people" (which polls at the time regularly showed both a lack of understanding of the consequences of Brexit, and a lack of favour for the nuclear option).

Point 3: I've never been particularly politically excitable until recently, people with grand visions scare me. It is noticeable that Brexit has morphed from something that will make us richer by escaping EU protectionism into something "that must be done" simply because Farage and the English nationalists in the Tory party wish it to be so. I refuse to "believe in Britain" as if we're somehow special simply because some fat, lying sack of shit ex-journo who threatened to get someone beaten up tells us to. We aren't special, and haven't been for at least 75 years.

I almost want the Brexit cult to get their wish for a dystopian no deal so that we can see them become a laughing stock and be put on trial (in as high a profile way as possible) for being lying scumbags more interested in their hedge funds than the wellbeing of the nation. The only things that stop me are that I don't want Scotland and NI to leave the UK and the likely significant economic damage, both short and long-term.

+1 Brexit will wreck the economy and tear the UK apart.

Scott_P

ab195 said:

I think two things are apparent from the debate today:

1) Nobody actually thinks the PM has acted completely unacceptably. They have to pretend hey do (sometimes even to themselves), but everyone understands Parliament can remove him if it wants on Monday; however

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167130739462352896

StuartDickson

Stereotomy said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

Aren't these the headlines Swinson should be trying to get? Why is she letting Corbyn take the anti-No Deal mantle?

Cos she’s hopeless.

We did try to tell you.

TheScreamingEagles

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

What is the best christmas movie and what one should eat while watching it...

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

I predict a riot - no, I really do.

alex.

Ishmael_Z said:

alex. said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

So are the HOC going to spend the short time they’ve got before prorogation trying to pass legislation to (retrospectively?) make it illegal (which in itself undermines the court cases trying to claim that it already is so), or spending it trying to pass legislation to stop nodeal Brexit?

Perhaps they’ll succeed in the former, and then, having won on this important point of principle, all decamp into recess for the Party conferences

It doesn't undermine the court cases. There is currently no statute prohibiting murder, but if you passed one that wouldn't imply that it was not previously illegal.

This is called codifying the common law.

OK - how about, “suggests a lack of confidence that the current appeals to the courts will be successful”?

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

Something on the voting system....AV perhaps?

TheScreamingEagles

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

Something on the voting system....AV perhaps?

That thread is already written.

Philip_Thompson

StuartDickson said:

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

WTF? This should be Lab 1/16 [no I'm not offering to lay]

This is a 66% return on investment if you back Lab in a rock-solid safe red seat.

justin124

StuartDickson said:

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

I cannot see the odds for Portsmouth South being very accurate. Labour won the seat from third place in 2017 , and I would expect the new MP to receive a quite significant first term incumbency boost.The former LD MP Mike Hancock survived on the basis of Labour tactical votes - which swung en masse to Labour two years ago.Unlikelt to see that reversed at the next election!

Peter_the_Punter

Scott_P said:

ab195 said:

I think two things are apparent from the debate today:

1) Nobody actually thinks the PM has acted completely unacceptably. They have to pretend hey do (sometimes even to themselves), but everyone understands Parliament can remove him if it wants on Monday; however

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167130739462352896

Yes but there was no need to prorogue for five weeks, you tosspot. It was done for Brexit purposes. You know it. We know it.

Stop taking us for suckers.

Philip_Thompson

The_Taxman said:

Mauve said:

Point 1: The pathetic inaction of Hancock, Javid and Rudd speaks volumes about their integrity - they deserve humiliation for their arse licking. Along with many other Tory MPs for backing a known liar. As a wise man once wrote "Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten."

Point 2: I voted remain and was prepared to accept a sensible Brexit, but there have been zero attempts made to compromise with remain voters by the leave side. There have been no sensible arguments presented for Brexit beyond magical trade deals (that will be massively disadvantageous to us due to desperation), sovereignty (that we still had many vetoes over), and "the will of the people" (which polls at the time regularly showed both a lack of understanding of the consequences of Brexit, and a lack of favour for the nuclear option).

Point 3: I've never been particularly politically excitable until recently, people with grand visions scare me. It is noticeable that Brexit has morphed from something that will make us richer by escaping EU protectionism into something "that must be done" simply because Farage and the English nationalists in the Tory party wish it to be so. I refuse to "believe in Britain" as if we're somehow special simply because some fat, lying sack of shit ex-journo who threatened to get someone beaten up tells us to. We aren't special, and haven't been for at least 75 years.

I almost want the Brexit cult to get their wish for a dystopian no deal so that we can see them become a laughing stock and be put on trial (in as high a profile way as possible) for being lying scumbags more interested in their hedge funds than the wellbeing of the nation. The only things that stop me are that I don't want Scotland and NI to leave the UK and the likely significant economic damage, both short and long-term.

+1 Brexit will wreck the economy and tear the UK apart.

@Chris will be along in a second to say you can't know that and are a fool no doubt . . . any second now . . .

StuartDickson

New market:

Next Scottish Conservative Leader

Jackson Carlaw 3/1
Murdo Fraser 3/1
Adam Tomkins 5/1
Donald Cameron 10/1
Maurice Golden 12/1
Rachel Hamilton 12/1
Alister Jack 16/1
Annie Wells 16/1

(Ladbrokes)

NickPalmer

ab195 said:

I think two things are apparent from the debate today:

1) Nobody actually thinks the PM has acted completely unacceptably. They have to pretend hey do (sometimes even to themselves), but everyone understands Parliament can remove him if it wants on Monday; however

2) He has shown us there’s a gaping hole in the constitution and he could have done (and a future PM might do) something dreadful.

We need to address that, and I think we all have to accept that. In the back of my mind, for example, I can picture a directly elected PM and a removal of the expectation ministers come from Parliament. The Leader of the House remains but sometimes won’t be the same party. The executive would govern, Parliament would legislate, control the piggy bank, and scrutinise through committees. The PM would de facto be an elected head of state and could legitimately use prerogative powers via orders in Council, but we’d get to pretend we were still a monarchy for the ceremony.

Thats’s just one thought. There are other ways. But we need to do something.

I'd have thought that recent experience points in the opposite direction - we really don't need to centralise power around a single person. But I agree that when the dust settles (if it ever does) a constitutional convention would look attractive, to decide how we wanted to go forward.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

What is the best christmas movie and what one should eat while watching it...

An upcoming thread compares Brexit to a Hawaiian pizza.

‘Brexit is like a Hawaiian pizza, far too many people like it whilst all right thinking people are disgusted and outraged by those who love the aforementioned pizza and are quite happy to insult the degenerates who like Brexit and Hawaiian pizzas’

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Carlaw4Eastwood/status/1167173139111002114

Philip_Thompson

Peter_the_Punter said:

Scott_P said:

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Creative Destruction?!! Now there's a slogan to go into a General Election with - but for the Conservative Party?!

Eat your heart out, Anarchists. Take a hike, Commie Bastards. You want creative destruction, join the Conservatives!!!

Absolutely! It is a core Conservative belief.

Ishmael_Z

alex. said:

Ishmael_Z said:

alex. said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

So are the HOC going to spend the short time they’ve got before prorogation trying to pass legislation to (retrospectively?) make it illegal (which in itself undermines the court cases trying to claim that it already is so), or spending it trying to pass legislation to stop nodeal Brexit?

Perhaps they’ll succeed in the former, and then, having won on this important point of principle, all decamp into recess for the Party conferences

It doesn't undermine the court cases. There is currently no statute prohibiting murder, but if you passed one that wouldn't imply that it was not previously illegal.

This is called codifying the common law.

OK - how about, “suggests a lack of confidence that the current appeals to the courts will be successful”?

Fair enough.

Peter_the_Punter

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Scott_P said:

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Creative Destruction?!! Now there's a slogan to go into a General Election with - but for the Conservative Party?!

Eat your heart out, Anarchists. Take a hike, Commie Bastards. You want creative destruction, join the Conservatives!!!

Absolutely! It is a core Conservative belief.

StuartDickson

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Carlaw4Eastwood/status/1167173139111002114

“Challenging”. Ho ho. Aye, you lot are challenged right enough.

spudgfsh

NickPalmer said:

ab195 said:

I think two things are apparent from the debate today:

1) Nobody actually thinks the PM has acted completely unacceptably. They have to pretend hey do (sometimes even to themselves), but everyone understands Parliament can remove him if it wants on Monday; however

2) He has shown us there’s a gaping hole in the constitution and he could have done (and a future PM might do) something dreadful.

We need to address that, and I think we all have to accept that. In the back of my mind, for example, I can picture a directly elected PM and a removal of the expectation ministers come from Parliament. The Leader of the House remains but sometimes won’t be the same party. The executive would govern, Parliament would legislate, control the piggy bank, and scrutinise through committees. The PM would de facto be an elected head of state and could legitimately use prerogative powers via orders in Council, but we’d get to pretend we were still a monarchy for the ceremony.

Thats’s just one thought. There are other ways. But we need to do something.

I'd have thought that recent experience points in the opposite direction - we really don't need to centralise power around a single person. But I agree that when the dust settles (if it ever does) a constitutional convention would look attractive, to decide how we wanted to go forward.

We've never done revolutionary reforms (not that it wouldn't be a good idea) and while a constitutional convention may be a good idea in principal it will be painted as a talking shop.

That said, there is now a good case for electoral reform and reform for the HoL. (not that there hasn't been for 200 years)

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

What is the best christmas movie and what one should eat while watching it...

An upcoming thread compares Brexit to a Hawaiian a pizza.

‘Brexit is like a Hawaiian pizza, far too many people like it whilst all right thinking people are disgusted and outraged by those who love the aforementioned pizza and are quite happy to insult the degenerates who like Brexit and Hawaiian pizzas’

I'm happy to go along with that.

Hawaiian pizzas are great and any snooty fool who mocks them is just too arrogant to realise they don't know best. But a hawaiian pizza doesn't go far enough . . . hawaiian burgers are better. Not enough places go for pineapple on a burger.

ab195

NickPalmer said:

ab195 said:

I think two things are apparent from the debate today:

1) Nobody actually thinks the PM has acted completely unacceptably. They have to pretend hey do (sometimes even to themselves), but everyone understands Parliament can remove him if it wants on Monday; however

2) He has shown us there’s a gaping hole in the constitution and he could have done (and a future PM might do) something dreadful.

We need to address that, and I think we all have to accept that. In the back of my mind, for example, I can picture a directly elected PM and a removal of the expectation ministers come from Parliament. The Leader of the House remains but sometimes won’t be the same party. The executive would govern, Parliament would legislate, control the piggy bank, and scrutinise through committees. The PM would de facto be an elected head of state and could legitimately use prerogative powers via orders in Council, but we’d get to pretend we were still a monarchy for the ceremony.

Thats’s just one thought. There are other ways. But we need to do something.

I'd have thought that recent experience points in the opposite direction - we really don't need to centralise power around a single person. But I agree that when the dust settles (if it ever does) a constitutional convention would look attractive, to decide how we wanted to go forward.

The reason I think you to centralise on someone with their own mandate is that we’ve had a three year lesson in weak, crap PMs inexplicably being able to limp on; and use the sovereign’s powers while they are at it.

I don’t like that. It isn’t right. Three years ago I’d have said it was fine as MPs would act.

Edit - weak, crap PMs which don’t obviously command the house. Not something we’ve seen for many years.

TheScreamingEagles

StuartDickson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Carlaw4Eastwood/status/1167173139111002114

“Challenging”. Ho ho. Aye, you lot are challenged right enough.

Yet you managed to lose to this challenged lot when it really mattered in 2014.

Philip_Thompson

Peter_the_Punter said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Scott_P said:

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Creative Destruction?!! Now there's a slogan to go into a General Election with - but for the Conservative Party?!

Eat your heart out, Anarchists. Take a hike, Commie Bastards. You want creative destruction, join the Conservatives!!!

Absolutely! It is a core Conservative belief.

You disagree?

edmundintokyo

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167130739462352896

One thing I learned from this site is that saying someone is "rattled" is nearly always projection. If I say you're rattled, it means I'm worried things aren't going the way I hoped.

FF43

StuartDickson said:

Stereotomy said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167170575002984453

Aren't these the headlines Swinson should be trying to get? Why is she letting Corbyn take the anti-No Deal mantle?

Cos she’s hopeless.

We did try to tell you.

It's in the Lib Dem interest for Labour to retain their marginals against the Conservatives. As long the Lib Dems can win seats against the Conservatives.

The issue might be with the second part of that equation, though.

dixiedean

StuartDickson said:

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

Tories the same odds for BA as Hartlepool makes no sense whatsoever. One is a very marginal seat, with a large Tory voting, rural area around Barnard Castle. The other is a relatively safe seat.

StuartDickson

justin124 said:

StuartDickson said:

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

I cannot see the odds for Portsmouth South being very accurate. Labour won the seat from third place in 2017 , and I would expect the new MP to receive a quite significant first term incumbency boost.The former LD MP Mike Hancock survived on the basis of Labour tactical votes - which swung en masse to Labour two years ago.Unlikelt to see that reversed at the next election!

Odds aren’t meant to be “accurate”. They are there to tempt you to stake cash. Looks like Shadsy is doing a good job if you see a price you like.

StuartDickson

dixiedean said:

StuartDickson said:

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

Tories the same odds for BA as Hartlepool makes no sense whatsoever. One is a very marginal seat, with a large Tory voting, rural area around Barnard Castle. The other is a relatively safe seat.

Feel free to take advantage of Shadsy’s poor research.

kle4

spudgfsh said:

kle4 said:

I do think more and more people will bewilling to consider Corbyn temporarily now. Boris has made clear to them that may be the price they need to pay, and he thinks that works for him.

It depends on whether he continues to appear to sit on the fence with the manifesto. If he does it'll look false and people won't vote for him

I merely meant with the numbers in parliament people will back Corb

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167130739462352896

One thing I learned from this site is that saying someone is "rattled" is nearly always projection. If I say you're rattled, it means I'm worried things aren't going the way I hoped.

I don't discount thepossibility that occasionally such an accusation is well founded. However, overwhelmingly it does appear to be projection as you say, eg when opponent x attacks my side y, well it must mean that x is rattled and fear x and not that, I don't know, they actually just don't like x.

justin124

dixiedean said:

StuartDickson said:

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

Tories the same odds for BA as Hartlepool makes no sense whatsoever. One is a very marginal seat, with a large Tory voting, rural area around Barnard Castle. The other is a relatively safe seat.

Hartlepool was won by the Tories at the 1959 election . Bishop Auckland has been Labour-held since 1935.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1167178555316428807

eek

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167130739462352896

One thing I learned from this site is that saying someone is "rattled" is nearly always projection. If I say you're rattled, it means I'm worried things aren't going the way I hoped.

In this case, the news story should have moved on and it hasn't..

and the longer it remains the news story the greater the possibility that people will remember who is responsible.

alex.

A quick question re: the Queens Speech and subsequent debate/vote.

Can the Queens Speech be amended and, if so, what would the consequence be of inserting an anti no deal amendment?

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1167178555316428807

Election departments have been preparing themselves for a potential election for most of this year.

dixiedean

StuartDickson said:

dixiedean said:

StuartDickson said:

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

Tories the same odds for BA as Hartlepool makes no sense whatsoever. One is a very marginal seat, with a large Tory voting, rural area around Barnard Castle. The other is a relatively safe seat.

Feel free to take advantage of Shadsy’s poor research.

Thanks. But I am trying to stay out of next GE right now. The polls are simply too fluid.

TOPPING

Peter_the_Punter said:

Scott_P said:

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Creative Destruction?!! Now there's a slogan to go into a General Election with - but for the Conservative Party?!

Eat your heart out, Anarchists. Take a hike, Commie Bastards. You want creative destruction, join the Conservatives!!!

I mean this is the sort of stuff we joked about as a parody of the leavers. Extraordinary. How will it go down on the doorstep? God only knows surely we Brits are more sensible than that.

rottenborough

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167130739462352896

One thing I learned from this site is that saying someone is "rattled" is nearly always projection. If I say you're rattled, it means I'm worried things aren't going the way I hoped.

Part of Cummings masterplan is the distraction this has engineered from shouting about how far Boris has got with EU.

kle4

So is the summary of the legal arguments basically

The government gave bad advice based on bad motives, so prorogation was invalidated; and

They just don't like the decision, which is fine, but that doesn't make it something for courts?

Drutt

StuartDickson said:

justin124 said:

StuartDickson said:

New markets:

Next GE - Bishop Auckland (Lab Maj 502, Helen Goodman MP)

Lab 4/5
Con 11/10
Bxp 8/1
LD 50/1

Next GE - Hartlepool (Lab Maj 7,650, Mike Hill MP)

Lab 4/6
Con 11/10
LD 50/1

Next GE - Portsmouth South (Lab Maj 1,554, Stephen Morgan MP)

LD 5/4
Con 6/4
Lab 9/4

(Ladbrokes)

I cannot see the odds for Portsmouth South being very accurate. Labour won the seat from third place in 2017 , and I would expect the new MP to receive a quite significant first term incumbency boost.The former LD MP Mike Hancock survived on the basis of Labour tactical votes - which swung en masse to Labour two years ago.Unlikelt to see that reversed at the next election!

Odds aren’t meant to be “accurate”. They are there to tempt you to stake cash. Looks like Shadsy is doing a good job if you see a price you like.

Stuart Dickson is Shadsy AICM £5 free bet.

Philip_Thompson

TOPPING said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Scott_P said:

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Creative Destruction?!! Now there's a slogan to go into a General Election with - but for the Conservative Party?!

Eat your heart out, Anarchists. Take a hike, Commie Bastards. You want creative destruction, join the Conservatives!!!

I mean this is the sort of stuff we joked about as a parody of the leavers. Extraordinary. How will it go down on the doorstep? God only knows surely we Brits are more sensible than that.

They said the same in Thatcher's day too.

Creative destruction is a very Conservative belief, not like command and control statists in other parties.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

StuartDickson

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Carlaw4Eastwood/status/1167173139111002114

“Challenging”. Ho ho. Aye, you lot are challenged right enough.

Yet you managed to lose to this challenged lot when it really mattered in 2014.

We lost to SLab footsoldiers, Gordon Brown, the Daily Record and the BBC. In contrast, the Tories were an absolute gift to the Yes campaign.

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/thebeatcroft/status/1166591462592712704

https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1167169658820136960

Isn't Shetland a strong LD area anyway?

TheScreamingEagles

This maybe the best bit of trolling in the history of football, look away now @TGOHF

https://twitter.com/AndyMitten/status/1167146831391920128

eek

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

So by October most people will be in panic mode and a replacement PM should be ready to go.

OnlyLivingBoy

Mauve said:

Point 1: The pathetic inaction of Hancock, Javid and Rudd speaks volumes about their integrity - they deserve humiliation for their arse licking. Along with many other Tory MPs for backing a known liar. As a wise man once wrote "Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten."

Point 2: I voted remain and was prepared to accept a sensible Brexit, but there have been zero attempts made to compromise with remain voters by the leave side. There have been no sensible arguments presented for Brexit beyond magical trade deals (that will be massively disadvantageous to us due to desperation), sovereignty (that we still had many vetoes over), and "the will of the people" (which polls at the time regularly showed both a lack of understanding of the consequences of Brexit, and a lack of favour for the nuclear option).

Point 3: I've never been particularly politically excitable until recently, people with grand visions scare me. It is noticeable that Brexit has morphed from something that will make us richer by escaping EU protectionism into something "that must be done" simply because Farage and the English nationalists in the Tory party wish it to be so. I refuse to "believe in Britain" as if we're somehow special simply because some fat, lying sack of shit ex-journo who threatened to get someone beaten up tells us to. We aren't special, and haven't been for at least 75 years.

I almost want the Brexit cult to get their wish for a dystopian no deal so that we can see them become a laughing stock and be put on trial (in as high a profile way as possible) for being lying scumbags more interested in their hedge funds than the wellbeing of the nation. The only things that stop me are that I don't want Scotland and NI to leave the UK and the likely significant economic damage, both short and long-term.

+1

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

Get ready for an election? I shall.

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

Get Ready? Great - I shall be down at my GPs demanding a stockpile of my wife's life essential medicines.

not_on_fire

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

More money spunked away by the party of economic competence

rottenborough

So, PBers have occasionally predicted civil unrest:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/29/jeremy-corbyn-backs-hard-left-plan-bring-cities-halt-protest/

rottenborough

Strikes me that Jezza has walked into the trap.

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Btw, enjoy the hols, Mike. You deserve to.

I'm sure it will be nice and quiet here while TSE is in charge.

I’m not sure what I’ll write about during this quiet period.

The large protests convened up and down the land to protest about the Prime Minister's ordering of a large Hawaiian pizza

dixiedean

Get the feeling Cummings is somewhat high on his own publicity.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1167185922120671254

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1167179888966676480

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/bbcshetland/status/1167185033326542848?s=20

FF43

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

Get ready, how? Ready to do and die? Ready to move to the broad sunlit uplands? Head for the hills?

rottenborough

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1167179888966676480

The trap that Jezza has just walked in to.

I can feel a 'silent majority' election coming.

Gallowgate

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

£100m ffs. What a colossal waste.

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

StuartDickson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Carlaw4Eastwood/status/1167173139111002114

“Challenging”. Ho ho. Aye, you lot are challenged right enough.

Yet you managed to lose to this challenged lot when it really mattered in 2014.

We lost to SLab footsoldiers, Gordon Brown, the Daily Record and the BBC. In contrast, the Tories were an absolute gift to the Yes campaign.

Utter rubbish, it was Tories energy which got out over 90% of Scottish Tory voters for No, while useless SLab lost over a third of their traditional voters to Yes and then even more to the SNP. Indeed the 95% of Scottish Tory voters who voted No was even higher than the 86% of SNP voters who voted Yes.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf

Tonight SLab will likely fall to 4th in the Shetland by election behind the Scottish LDs, SNP and Scottish Tories, a pathetic shell of a party whose machine once dominated Scottish politics, now rejected by nationalists and unionists alike

Beibheirli_C

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Scott_P said:

In order to build a New World from the rubble, first there has to be rubble...

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1167172662554218497

Creative Destruction?!! Now there's a slogan to go into a General Election with - but for the Conservative Party?!

Eat your heart out, Anarchists. Take a hike, Commie Bastards. You want creative destruction, join the Conservatives!!!

I mean this is the sort of stuff we joked about as a parody of the leavers. Extraordinary. How will it go down on the doorstep? God only knows surely we Brits are more sensible than that.

They said the same in Thatcher's day too.

Creative destruction is a very Conservative belief, not like command and control statists in other parties.

What fantasy planet are you on? I remember Mrs Thatcher and, whilst I disliked her, she was at least reliable and honest. She believed in reform and enabling ownership. Destruction to rebuild would be nearer to Michael Foot and Militant Tendancy.

rottenborough

Balanced:

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1166876704100556800

Mauve

dixiedean said:

Mauve said:

Point 1: The pathetic inaction of Hancock, Javid and Rudd speaks volumes about their integrity - they deserve humiliation for their arse licking. Along with many other Tory MPs for backing a known liar. As a wise man once wrote "Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten."

Point 2: I voted remain and was prepared to accept a sensible Brexit, but there have been zero attempts made to compromise with remain voters by the leave side. There have been no sensible arguments presented for Brexit beyond magical trade deals (that will be massively disadvantageous to us due to desperation), sovereignty (that we still had many vetoes over), and "the will of the people" (which polls at the time regularly showed both a lack of understanding of the consequences of Brexit, and a lack of favour for the nuclear option).

Point 3: I've never been particularly politically excitable until recently, people with grand visions scare me. It is noticeable that Brexit has morphed from something that will make us richer by escaping EU protectionism into something "that must be done" simply because Farage and the English nationalists in the Tory party wish it to be so. I refuse to "believe in Britain" as if we're somehow special simply because some fat, lying sack of shit ex-journo who threatened to get someone beaten up tells us to. We aren't special, and haven't been for at least 75 years.

I almost want the Brexit cult to get their wish for a dystopian no deal so that we can see them become a laughing stock and be put on trial (in as high a profile way as possible) for being lying scumbags more interested in their hedge funds than the wellbeing of the nation. The only things that stop me are that I don't want Scotland and NI to leave the UK and the likely significant economic damage, both short and long-term.

So you're broadly opposed to this Brexit business then
My feelings on the matter entirely btw.

I'm as in favour of the idea of Brexit as I am to having Boris Johnson as PM. I'm open minded that way

rottenborough

Yep.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1167119648048984066

not_on_fire

rottenborough said:

Balanced:

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1166876704100556800

Have to agree. The shenanigans we are seeing this week are the reason for the checks and balances in the US system.

Beibheirli_C

rottenborough said:

Balanced:

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1166876704100556800

I find myself in agreement with that tweet.

glw

not_on_fire said:

rottenborough said:

Balanced:

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1166876704100556800

Have to agree. The shenanigans we are seeing this week are the reason for the checks and balances in the US system.

Those checks and balances are utterly worthless when they aren't enforced, as is the case right now with Trump and the GOP.

kle4

Beibheirli_C said:

rottenborough said:

Balanced:

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1166876704100556800

I find myself in agreement with that tweet.

I don't, not in the slightest. I'm outraged at Boris's actions, but people jump so quickly to the fascism accusation.

isam

https://twitter.com/beninthenorth/status/1167157517073420290?s=21

ab195

Corbyn supported disruptive protests? Angry mobs shouting at the Leader of the House’s kids? Remainers still talking about process? Cummings must think it’s Christmas.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

Balanced:

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1166876704100556800

Committing to implement a Leave vote 17 million voted for is anything but Fascist

rottenborough

Beibheirli_C said:

rottenborough said:

Balanced:

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1166876704100556800

I find myself in agreement with that tweet.

I seem to be in a minority. People are overreacting.

kinabalu

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1167183331278151681

Clever slogan. "Get Ready". Makes it sound exciting. A blockbuster movie you can't wait to see. The start of the Ashes. The ETA of the A list celeb to the party. And subliminally a feelgood motown song. Nice one by Gove.

rottenborough

ab195 said:

Corbyn supported disruptive protests? Angry mobs shouting at the Leader of the House’s kids? Remainers still talking about process? Cummings must think it’s Christmas.

This. About x100 likes.

Allotment Man has walked straight into the trap. Unbelievable.