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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first YouGov for a fortnight sees CON/LAB/LD holding pretty firm
New @YouGov poll for the Times has little changeCON 30 -1LAB 21 -1LD 20-1BREX 14=GRN+113-14 Aug
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Probably not first but that's still a 13% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem which will be higher in the LD target seats.
Don't like BJ
Don't trust BJ
Protest voters that would never vote Tory.
Will they fall in line in an election is called with a date after 31st October 2019 ?
Will Nigel instruct them to fall in line?
Would be ironic if the Brexit Party actually played a key role in toppling the party the delivered on their only reason for existence.
Where's my coat and apologies for lowering the tone.
UNS has to be treated with extreme caution with this kind of vote change.
Fucking hell, sort it out Disney/Sony
Spider-Man reportedly out of MCU after Disney, Sony fail to reach deal.
https://www.polygon.com/2019/8/20/20825600/spider-man-mcu-sony-disney
Tories 345 (biggest Tory seat total since Thatcher in 1987), Labour 193 (lowest Labour seat total since 1935 and lowest Labour voteshare since 1918), LDs 53 (highest LD seat total since 2010).
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=30&LAB=21+&LIB=20+&Brexit=14+&Green=8&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
It tends not to happen here - it might have done in 1992 had only a relatively small number of votes dropped differently.
A word “means just what I choose it to mean - neither more or less”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humpty_Dumpty
That's the thing about self-preservation and making hostages to fortune - the consequences of not delivering tend to be extreme.
There are few 3 way marginals though, in most seats it is pretty clear who is best placed to unseat the Tories.
Time to step down.
Which is demonstrable by the fact that even though we have EU membership and even though we don't have trade deals with major non-EU economies, EU trade is less than half [not around half as you claimed] and falling. It used to be half, it used to be more than half, but that is not true anymore.
If we were trading on a level playing field between the EU and the rest of the world it is quite plausible that the EU would form a third or less of our trade within a decade.
IANAL but I will give you 4 reasons why I think you are wrong.
1: Brexit is specifically covered by Article 50 of Lisbon so it is the more relevant law.
2: Article 50 of Lisbon was passed more recently.
3: Article 50 of Lisbon is the explicit letter of the law, while the GFA is more about the vague "spirit of the law".
However most damning is 4: If that's your view take it before the Supreme Court or the European Court of Justice and argue why Brexit is illegal. Because if you've found a reason why it is illegal that will terminate the whole debate if they rule it so. Why hasn't anyone already done so.
Although not a primary part of the case, the GFA and Ireland was touched upon in the Miller case before the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court ruled that Parliament could invoke Article 50.
So therefore given that the Supreme Court ruled that Parliament could invoke Article 50, and given that Parliament has authorised Article 50's invocation I'm going to go along with Parliament and the Supreme Court and not your supposition that Article 50's invocation was lawful.
Still think otherwise? Why argue with me? Take your case before the Supreme Court or ECJ and put this matter to bed. I'm sure you could find sponsors if you have a solid legal argument behind you.
You failed to address my actual points, however. Geographic proximity might in theory be trending less important, but there’s no evidence of that showing up in actual trade data.
In fact, in some respects proximity seems to be becoming *more* important for economic growth in general (ie new economic geography).
This ought to make a GE more likely, but I think Boris is too new to risk it.
Good to see TSE recognise that any no deal disruption is less significant than which superhero turns up in Marvel's next Saturday afternoon timepasser, though .
*Moe obviously
Boris has no choice but to deliver Brexit 'deal or no deal, do or die'.
Neither would May or Hunt but they just weren't self-aware enough to realise it. Which is why May failed and why Hunt lost. Boris is intelligent about this not stupid.
I did address the actual points. I'm curious about there being no evidence of that showing up in actual trade data when you confirmed my point that the EU as a share of UK trade is falling.
Nothing has a majority of voters behind it and nothing is changing that, however far from shrinking further once we have finally left that will simply become our new status quo. Never underestimate the power of inertia, it will take a majority uniting behind an alternative to change that and at the minute there seems to be little to no evidence that is happening.
The swing from Con to LD is driven by:
1. Labour defections to the LDs.
2. Conservative defections to the Brexit Party.
That swing will be lower in LD target seats where in many cases the Labour vote has already been squeezed and there is little remaining Lab vote left. So, for example, in Cheltenham Labour polled 9.4% at the last GE and there is not much left to squeeze - and a 20% fall in the Labour vote share implied by UNS is mathematically impossible and would be more like 5% on a proportional model.
The idea that Conservatives would be as prepared to risk deserting to the Brexit Party in perceived Con-LD marginal seats is also I think a highly questionable assumption.
But if it was 0% all around then we should see diversification of our imports away from the protectionist EU as we drop tariffs blocking imports from the rest of the world.
Now it's clearly different for services, or dry bulk, etc. Simply transporting coal an extra thousand miles is a rounding error.
But it matters for other sectors, especially as manufacturing likes to "run lean"
The reply would be some semi-witty irrelevance.
What remainers actually mean is that this is a vessel to stop Brexit, nothing at all to do with unity.
Good to see Jezza is viewed so negatively - gives me hope for our country.
Too soon to say with Boris though I agree he's not an inherently dictatorial type, just a typical convictionless politician riding the populist wave. Trump is not ideologically coherent enough to be a fascist but is certainly in the same mould as your bog standard tinpot dictator. He is simply held back because of the US constitution. If Trump could control the USA like Putin does in Russia, he certainly would. The optimist in me says that Boris would not.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1163854014561292288
Regulatory compliance with the exception of food as you say, but it is only certain foodstuffs and again only a percentage, is not done at the border. It is done at the importeur level and is based on a trust system.
The latest Canadian poll yesterday had Conservatives 35%, Liberals 33%, NDP 18%, Greens 9%, BQ 3%, PPC 1%.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Conservatives-Liberals-Dead-Heat-Ethics-Review-Fails-to-Move-Voters
As Boris wouldn't say to that.
PS. There is simply no precedent in Canada for deals or coalitions. Whoever wins most seats will be a minority government. Ironically, if Scheer wins, that means he will be able to enact nowt but the most bland.
If Trudeau wins as a minority, he may actually have to act on some of the policies he promised http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008–09_Canadian_parliamentary_dispute
"The UK has 'the right person in charge': Donald Trump praises Boris Johnson as 'far superior' after speaking to the newly installed prime minister FOUR times"
There may be no precedent in Canada for deals but on current polls it is looking like the closest Canadian election since 1972 (when Trudeau's father scraped home by 2 seats to lead the largest party propped up by the NDP) so I would not rule anything out
According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden has only led in two of the last five Iowa polls, with Warren getting two, and Buttigieg one. Biden's *highest* polling number is 28%, with two sub 20% numbers.
Since the beginning of July, RCP has only found two polls, so it's a bit misleading.
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