On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
This is actually worse for Trump than it sounds, because China's tariffs are specifically targeted at swing voters.
If he seems to be hurting enough I wonder if they'll even do a deal; It's not like Trump is known for respecting agreements, isn't it better to just keep the pressure on until November and make sure he's replaced with someone more stable?
Which is why Iowa is such a disaster zone for Trump this time around.
FWIW the slump in China soya imports isn’t some grand plan. It’s because half their pigs are dead. On the other hand, pork imports from the US to China are at all time high. You might say farmers are on the hog.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
Does this not rather downplay the significance of the very high value service jobs that have formed the backbone of the UK economy for some time now?
True but most of those are in financial services and corporate law and accountancy, IT and the media etc and concentrated in the big cities, especially London.
Mind you the situation is not much different in the US where the wealthiest areas are around New York, Boston, LA, DC and San Francisco or indeed France where they are around Paris
What about the Midlands Engine, Silicone Highway and Northern Powerhouse? :-)
The Northern Powerhouse is full speed ahead under Boris
If the inverted yield stood on its own then I think a decent case could be made for saying it was not a reliable indicator of a recession this time around. One of the key drivers of the difference in yield is inflation expectations. If there is a risk that your capital may deflate by 5-10% a year during the period of loan that has to be bought off with a higher interest rate because it would affect the value of the asset. Conversely, if the market is confident that the very low inflation/near deflation of the last decade is going to continue then there is no need for such a premium. The argument that you are "tying your money up for longer" doesn't really work when the market for government bonds is so liquid. You can check out any time you want.
Unfortunately the yield curve does not stand alone. The silly trade wars, the long term sustainability of excess consumption and excess private debt, the time since the last recession, the instability of China, there are so many indicators that a recession is likely within the next 18 months. Germany is likely to be in recession when the Q3 figures come out although this is so shallow that it would barely be noticeable. The worry is that this becomes entrenched. If it does politicians in office everywhere will struggle.
There's worrying news reports from all over:
Car sales in India during July fell at the sharpest pace for nearly 20 years, according to new data.
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said sales of cars to dealerships fell by 30.9% to 200,790 in July - the worst drop since December 2000.
The pace of the decline has accelerated in recent months as a liquidity crunch in India's shadow banking sector has dried up lines of credit to dealers and potential car buyers.
Amazing how much Trump's fiscal policy is being ignored. With all the fuss over Obama and the debt ceiling you wonder how the Republicans have the gall.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
Although not as much but that's because this country can't stop spending money on imported consumer goods (see yesterday's retail sales data) and foreign holidays.
But that's what happens as a trillion quid of Osbrowne borrow and spend works its way through the economy.
This is the official response from yesterday, I think it has just enough reverse ferreting: It doesn't quite go so far to say that she'd support Corbyn if he could find enough Tories, but it doesn't say she wouldn't, and it sets that up as the main obstacle.
And it is an obstacle. Let's not forget that at this moment Labour has 11 fewer MPs than they had under Gordon Brown, and the Liberal Democrats and SNP 14 fewer than they held in 2010. Not only is the opposition weaker, it is also much more fragmented. And in 2010 Gordon Brown was PM, and still considered a major figure. Corbyn - isn't.
If Ed Miliband were still Leader of the Opposition then something might be done. But unfortunately the fact that the current Labour leader is very little different from the Prime Minister, has no experience, very little intelligence, zero integrity and is both ambiguous and slippery on the issue he is using to try and take power is more than a bit of a drawback.
The fact that some of the nuttier Corbynistas do not see this and throw around unpleasant personal abuse at those who point it out is depressing but hardly surprising.
Also, Corbynistas need to understand that throwing abuse at other parties is not likely to earn their support.
Corbyn is a non-starter, but it is good to see the discussions over who should depose Bozo dominate the news cycle.
Wouldn’t it be better to actually *do* something rather than to measure success by media cycles?
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Amazing how much Trump's fiscal policy is being ignored. With all the fuss over Obama and the debt ceiling you wonder how the Republicans have the gall.
People take a different view about spending when its them doing the spending rather than someone else.
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM".
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
Around 5 Tories and ex-Tories have expressed interest in discussing it with Corbyn (Bebb, Grieve, Letwin, Wollaston, and there was at least one more). It's reasonable to assume that there are some more who aren't keen to put their heads over the parapet but would do so if the 5 endorsed it and the only other surviving option was No Deal.
I've not seen this precondition that you (and others here) have suggested. But for the leader of the Opposition to have a go is a default first option, and probably has to be given an honest try before a plan B would have a serious chance of success.
This is the official response from yesterday, I think it has just enough reverse ferreting: It doesn't quite go so far to say that she'd support Corbyn if he could find enough Tories, but it doesn't say she wouldn't, and it sets that up as the main obstacle.
And it is an obstacle. Let's not forget that at this moment Labour has 11 fewer MPs than they had under Gordon Brown, and the Liberal Democrats and SNP 14 fewer than they held in 2010. Not only is the opposition weaker, it is also much more fragmented. And in 2010 Gordon Brown was PM, and still considered a major figure. Corbyn - isn't.
If Ed Miliband were still Leader of the Opposition then something might be done. But unfortunately the fact that the current Labour leader is very little different from the Prime Minister, has no experience, very little intelligence, zero integrity and is both ambiguous and slippery on the issue he is using to try and take power is more than a bit of a drawback.
The fact that some of the nuttier Corbynistas do not see this and throw around unpleasant personal abuse at those who point it out is depressing but hardly surprising.
Also, Corbynistas need to understand that throwing abuse at other parties is not likely to earn their support.
Corbyn is a non-starter, but it is good to see the discussions over who should depose Bozo dominate the news cycle.
Wouldn’t it be better to actually *do* something rather than to measure success by media cycles?
While Parliament is in recess, this counts as doing something.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Once again, and this bears repeating, if the LDs have any chance of attracting disillusioned Conservatives (and these are the votes needed in all bar one of the most marginal seats the LDs need to gain) they cannot be seen to be gifting Corbyn the keys to No.10 no matter how "temporary" such an arrangement.
The Conservatives who are contemplating such an action will be verbally eviscerated by the Mail and while it would be harder for CCHQ, it's not easy to imagine "Vote x, get Corbyn" being trumpeted from the nearest rooftop.
Enabling even the briefest of Corbyn tenures at No.10 might deliver a short term reprieve from No Deal but it would be electorally suicidal - the outcome would be a Conservative landslide, a decade or more of their ruinous misrule and we'd leave without a Deal anyway.
I believe there is a majority in the Commons against a No Deal Brexit but that means little or nothing. I simply cannot conceive of a Conservative supporting a VoNC to enable Corbyn to become PM - I can imagine Conservatives supporting a well-worded motion opposing a No Deal and the question will be if Boris ignores Parliament (probably electorally popular) and rejects any extension offered by the EU. He has to or he's finished.
There will then be no scintilla of doubt who has led us over the cliff and who will own the consequences despite what I imagine will be the many and varied attempts to blame "Remainers" from those supportive of Johnson.
Once again, and this bears repeating, if the LDs have any chance of attracting disillusioned Conservatives (and these are the votes needed in all bar one of the most marginal seats the LDs need to gain) they cannot be seen to be gifting Corbyn the keys to No.10 no matter how "temporary" such an arrangement.
The Conservatives who are contemplating such an action will be verbally eviscerated by the Mail and while it would be harder for CCHQ, it's not easy to imagine "Vote x, get Corbyn" being trumpeted from the nearest rooftop.
Enabling even the briefest of Corbyn tenures at No.10 might deliver a short term reprieve from No Deal but it would be electorally suicidal - the outcome would be a Conservative landslide, a decade or more of their ruinous misrule and we'd leave without a Deal anyway.
I believe there is a majority in the Commons against a No Deal Brexit but that means little or nothing. I simply cannot conceive of a Conservative supporting a VoNC to enable Corbyn to become PM - I can imagine Conservatives supporting a well-worded motion opposing a No Deal and the question will be if Boris ignores Parliament (probably electorally popular) and rejects any extension offered by the EU. He has to or he's finished.
There will then be no scintilla of doubt who has led us over the cliff and who will own the consequences despite what I imagine will be the many and varied attempts to blame "Remainers" from those supportive of Johnson.
Indeed, CCHQ would run ads in southern Tory Remain seats with Swinson in Corbyn's pocket if she did that and the Tories under Boris would win a lot of Labour Leave marginal seats if Corbyn extended Article 50 to delay Brexit again
Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year.
Yet recruitment of 'smart graduates' for engineering jobs at £25k or £30k is far from easy.
Its yet another thing which makes me suspect that much of UK higher education is not fit for purpose.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
If anything Boris is going on a tough law and order policy and putting more money into it too and just because he is not a classical liberal that does not stop him being a populist conservative in the Berlusconi or Trump mode
We really don't need another 'Berlusconi or Trump'.
1. VoNC but not FTPA format passes as above 2. Boris says: disappointed. Parliament has clearly rejected the WDA and the only alternative that had a majority in the house was to eliminate the backstop. Unfortunately the EU is unwilling to negotiate on this basis. Therefore we have no option but to pursue No Deal. However, if Parliament changes its mind we would, of course, sign the WA. 3. This is not government policy but, of course, we respect the will of the house. I have therefore asked Ken Clarke and [Steven Kinnock] to jointly propose the WA for this parliaments approval. We will allow a free vote on this side of the house and strongly urge all other parties to do the same. It is time that they abandoned pursuit of their narrow party interested and focused, for once, on what is good for the country 4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
If anything Boris is going on a tough law and order policy and putting more money into it too and just because he is not a classical liberal that does not stop him being a populist conservative in the Berlusconi or Trump mode
We really don't need another 'Berlusconi or Trump'.
That's the offer. Marxist permanent revolution from Downing Street, or Jeremy Corbyn.
Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year.
Yet recruitment of 'smart graduates' for engineering jobs at £25k or £30k is far from easy.
Its yet another thing which makes me suspect that much of UK higher education is not fit for purpose.
We pay Electricians £40 - £45 k per year and Gas Engineers £50-55K . We cant get them either
Why would Tories need to support Corbyn? Three quarters of his own MPs don't. It's obvious he can't be a caretaker PM for all the reasons pointed out. Labour, Tories and others need to agree on someone else. It shouldn't be that difficult.
Labour MPs worried about facing the wrath of their own members? Simple. Most of them don't want Brexit and certainly not delivered by Johnson.
Indeed, CCHQ would run ads in southern Tory Remain seats with Swinson in Corbyn's pocket if she did that
I'd expect nothing less.
On a more serious note, we know there are a number of Conservative MPs who are opposed to leaving the EU without a Deal. You may wish them to be de-selected but it's quite possible their associations will re-adopt them. If so, I could imagine a Brexit Party candidate in each of those seats.
IF a number of these Conservative MPs were to be re-elected in a GE prior to 31/10 and they then joined forces with the Opposition to block a No Deal Brexit by supporting a further extension, would you call for their immediate de-selection and, if the local association re-adopted them, would you argue for the suspension of the local association?
My point is Johnson might win a majority (though not on the current Survation numbers) but he needs a majority, I would argue, of at least 40 to ensure he can fight off any attempt to block a No Deal Brexit. Would you agree?
Mr. Stardog, the best thing is when an electrician buggers something up and then is reluctant to fix it. Others are very hesitant to engage in work that somebody else has botched (understandably, but compounds the problems for the homeowner).
Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year.
Yet recruitment of 'smart graduates' for engineering jobs at £25k or £30k is far from easy.
Its yet another thing which makes me suspect that much of UK higher education is not fit for purpose.
An awful lot of graduate recruitment is no more sophisticated than checking an applicant's alma mater. The reason a degree from Scumbag College is worth less than the same degree from Footlights College Oxbridge is the brand, not because the teaching is worse or they use a different speed of light in their physics equations.
Once again, and this bears repeating, if the LDs have any chance of attracting disillusioned Conservatives (and these are the votes needed in all bar one of the most marginal seats the LDs need to gain) they cannot be seen to be gifting Corbyn the keys to No.10 no matter how "temporary" such an arrangement.
The Conservatives who are contemplating such an action will be verbally eviscerated by the Mail and while it would be harder for CCHQ, it's not easy to imagine "Vote x, get Corbyn" being trumpeted from the nearest rooftop.
Enabling even the briefest of Corbyn tenures at No.10 might deliver a short term reprieve from No Deal but it would be electorally suicidal - the outcome would be a Conservative landslide, a decade or more of their ruinous misrule and we'd leave without a Deal anyway.
I believe there is a majority in the Commons against a No Deal Brexit but that means little or nothing. I simply cannot conceive of a Conservative supporting a VoNC to enable Corbyn to become PM - I can imagine Conservatives supporting a well-worded motion opposing a No Deal and the question will be if Boris ignores Parliament (probably electorally popular) and rejects any extension offered by the EU. He has to or he's finished.
There will then be no scintilla of doubt who has led us over the cliff and who will own the consequences despite what I imagine will be the many and varied attempts to blame "Remainers" from those supportive of Johnson.
Good to know the lib dems care more about attracting Tory votes than preventing No Deal. I genuinely believed you guys had found an issue you really cared about. How naive of me.
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
Once again, and this bears repeating, if the LDs have any chance of attracting disillusioned Conservatives (and these are the votes needed in all bar one of the most marginal seats the LDs need to gain) they cannot be seen to be gifting Corbyn the keys to No.10 no matter how "temporary" such an arrangement.
The Conservatives who are contemplating such an action will be verbally eviscerated by the Mail and while it would be harder for CCHQ, it's not easy to imagine "Vote x, get Corbyn" being trumpeted from the nearest rooftop.
Enabling even the briefest of Corbyn tenures at No.10 might deliver a short term reprieve from No Deal but it would be electorally suicidal - the outcome would be a Conservative landslide, a decade or more of their ruinous misrule and we'd leave without a Deal anyway.
I believe there is a majority in the Commons against a No Deal Brexit but that means little or nothing. I simply cannot conceive of a Conservative supporting a VoNC to enable Corbyn to become PM - I can imagine Conservatives supporting a well-worded motion opposing a No Deal and the question will be if Boris ignores Parliament (probably electorally popular) and rejects any extension offered by the EU. He has to or he's finished.
There will then be no scintilla of doubt who has led us over the cliff and who will own the consequences despite what I imagine will be the many and varied attempts to blame "Remainers" from those supportive of Johnson.
Good to know the lib dems care more about attracting Tory votes than preventing No Deal. I genuinely believed you guys had found an issue you really cared about. How naive of me.
What stodge is saying is that supporting corbyn gets us no deal anyway because he would be beaten in the subsequent election and we’d no deal anyway.
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM". As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn. And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
Yes. Grieve clearly said he would talk to Corbyn about the idea but that Corbyn as PM was a non starter. Which I think is exactly the right approach for all who support in principle the idea of a GNU.
I think this is where Swinson now is. The rest is propaganda from the Labour spinners and the Guardian.
1. VoNC but not FTPA format passes as above 2. Boris says: disappointed. Parliament has clearly rejected the WDA and the only alternative that had a majority in the house was to eliminate the backstop. Unfortunately the EU is unwilling to negotiate on this basis. Therefore we have no option but to pursue No Deal. However, if Parliament changes its mind we would, of course, sign the WA. 3. This is not government policy but, of course, we respect the will of the house. I have therefore asked Ken Clarke and [Steven Kinnock] to jointly propose the WA for this parliaments approval. We will allow a free vote on this side of the house and strongly urge all other parties to do the same. It is time that they abandoned pursuit of their narrow party interested and focused, for once, on what is good for the country 4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
In defence of the last point tory rating were fine when it was policy to adopt the WA, it only really went to hell when we extended as the WA was not passed.
Unfortunately I cannot see how the scenario would work - BoJo saw potential attempts to retry the WA coming and has been categorically against it - with most tories being loyalists with the leadership against the WA as undemocratic now I just dont see how it gets over the line. The handful gained at the 4th attempt will be overcome by Tories sitting on their hands or switching to follow the leader, whose promises mean he will oppose.
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
Hang on, are they moving Scunthorpe to Turkey?
He who pays the piper is presumably free to appoint new directors and even mess about with the recipe.
Good to know the lib dems care more about attracting Tory votes than preventing No Deal. I genuinely believed you guys had found an issue you really cared about. How naive of me.
It's good to see how little you understand politics and how it works. Yes of course the Party wants to block No Deal but the Corbyn plan is to agree to an extension and then hold a GE. Okay, we buy 6-12 months (perhaps) but when the GE is held, the Conservatives will simply say "vote Swinson, get Corbyn".
Now, you may not have noticed but Corbyn isn't very popular and if the LDs were seen as aligning themselves to him by perhaps putting him into Downing Street, the Conservatives would have the ideal campaign weapon.
Boris wins a landslide, we exit without a Deal anyway and we have to endure a decade of ruinous Conservative misrule.
If Corbyn genuinely wanted to stop No Deal he'd recognise how unpopular he was and step aside in favour of Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke who might be able to command a majority in the Commons and either agree to a long extension or revoke.
That's not how Corbyn operates - he wants to be PM in order to pursue a radical socialist agenda to which many in this country are strongly opposed (including the LDs). Indeed, there are many who, given a choice between a No Deal Brexit and a Corbyn Government, would prefer the former however bad it is.
Once again, and this bears repeating, if the LDs have any chance of attracting disillusioned Conservatives (and these are the votes needed in all bar one of the most marginal seats the LDs need to gain) they cannot be seen to be gifting Corbyn the keys to No.10 no matter how "temporary" such an arrangement.
The Conservatives who are contemplating such an action will be verbally eviscerated by the Mail and while it would be harder for CCHQ, it's not easy to imagine "Vote x, get Corbyn" being trumpeted from the nearest rooftop.
Enabling even the briefest of Corbyn tenures at No.10 might deliver a short term reprieve from No Deal but it would be electorally suicidal - the outcome would be a Conservative landslide, a decade or more of their ruinous misrule and we'd leave without a Deal anyway.
I believe there is a majority in the Commons against a No Deal Brexit but that means little or nothing. I simply cannot conceive of a Conservative supporting a VoNC to enable Corbyn to become PM - I can imagine Conservatives supporting a well-worded motion opposing a No Deal and the question will be if Boris ignores Parliament (probably electorally popular) and rejects any extension offered by the EU. He has to or he's finished.
There will then be no scintilla of doubt who has led us over the cliff and who will own the consequences despite what I imagine will be the many and varied attempts to blame "Remainers" from those supportive of Johnson.
Good to know the lib dems care more about attracting Tory votes than preventing No Deal. I genuinely believed you guys had found an issue you really cared about. How naive of me.
What stodge is saying is that supporting corbyn gets us no deal anyway because he would be beaten in the subsequent election and we’d no deal anyway.
Yes obviously it suits him to make baseless predictions of apocalypse if Corbyn ever takes the keys to number 10 so that he doesn't have to acknowledge that he's choosing No Deal under Boris over a second referendum or GE under Corbyn
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
Hang on, are they moving Scunthorpe to Turkey?
He who pays the piper is presumably free to appoint new directors and even mess about with the recipe.
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
Hang on, are they moving Scunthorpe to Turkey?
He who pays the piper is presumably free to appoint new directors and even mess about with the recipe.
I mean who is responsible for the liabilities of the accrued pension liabilities there, and are there assets to cover it ?
I'd hazard a guess in a game of hangman these might be N_ and T_X____R but perhaps that's just me being overly cynical. Maybe the Turks are buying that part too...
4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
I think people would notice that a) nothing had changed because we were in a 'vassal state' transition, and b) debates about the negotiations on the future relationship continued to dominate politics. Passing the WA won't do anything to marginalise Farage.
1. VoNC but not FTPA format passes as above 2. Boris says: disappointed. Parliament has clearly rejected the WDA and the only alternative that had a majority in the house was to eliminate the backstop. Unfortunately the EU is unwilling to negotiate on this basis. Therefore we have no option but to pursue No Deal. However, if Parliament changes its mind we would, of course, sign the WA. 3. This is not government policy but, of course, we respect the will of the house. I have therefore asked Ken Clarke and [Steven Kinnock] to jointly propose the WA for this parliaments approval. We will allow a free vote on this side of the house and strongly urge all other parties to do the same. It is time that they abandoned pursuit of their narrow party interested and focused, for once, on what is good for the country 4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
In defence of the last point tory rating were fine when it was policy to adopt the WA, it only really went to hell when we extended as the WA was not passed.
**Unfortunately I cannot see how the scenario would work - BoJo saw potential attempts to retry the WA coming and has been categorically against it - with most tories being loyalists with the leadership against the WA as undemocratic now I just dont see how it gets over the line**. The handful gained at the 4th attempt will be overcome by Tories sitting on their hands or switching to follow the leader, whose promises mean he will oppose.
Agree with this. Boris has doubled-down on what the ERG and others did when the WA first came out: denounced it as so poisonous that they have no wiggle room to allow it to see the light of day.
Once again, and this bears repeating, if the LDs have any chance of attracting disillusioned Conservatives (and these are the votes needed in all bar one of the most marginal seats the LDs need to gain) they cannot be seen to be gifting Corbyn the keys to No.10 no matter how "temporary" such an arrangement.
The Conservatives who are contemplating such an action will be verbally eviscerated by the Mail and while it would be harder for CCHQ, it's not easy to imagine "Vote x, get Corbyn" being trumpeted from the nearest rooftop.
Enabling even the briefest of Corbyn tenures at No.10 might deliver a short term reprieve from No Deal but it would be electorally suicidal - the outcome would be a Conservative landslide, a decade or more of their ruinous misrule and we'd leave without a Deal anyway.
I believe there is a majority in the Commons against a No Deal Brexit but that means little or nothing. I simply cannot conceive of a Conservative supporting a VoNC to enable Corbyn to become PM - I can imagine Conservatives supporting a well-worded motion opposing a No Deal and the question will be if Boris ignores Parliament (probably electorally popular) and rejects any extension offered by the EU. He has to or he's finished.
There will then be no scintilla of doubt who has led us over the cliff and who will own the consequences despite what I imagine will be the many and varied attempts to blame "Remainers" from those supportive of Johnson.
Good to know the lib dems care more about attracting Tory votes than preventing No Deal. I genuinely believed you guys had found an issue you really cared about. How naive of me.
What stodge is saying is that supporting corbyn gets us no deal anyway because he would be beaten in the subsequent election and we’d no deal anyway.
Yes obviously it suits him to make baseless predictions of apocalypse if Corbyn ever takes the keys to number 10 so that he doesn't have to acknowledge that he's choosing No Deal under Boris over a second referendum or GE under Corbyn
Even if the predictions have a base it is a calculation of risking no deal now if another solution does not work in fear of it causing no deal later.
It could be right, but if they cannot find another way to stop no deal now they might have no choice unless they are willing to admit they think Corbyn is worse than no deal.
Don’t know if this has been posted, but it’s on-topic and gives a good feel of what is happening in Wisconsin and one ex-Obama staffer’s view as to how the Democrats could win a critical state that is currently too close to call... published the somewhat partisan but always entertaining Pod Save America...
If you don’t want to read the full article, their polling suggests that the message that will most make voters more likely to vote against Trump is: “Trump “proposed nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicare to pay for a tax cut that overwhelmingly benefits billionaires and big corporations”
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
Hang on, are they moving Scunthorpe to Turkey?
He who pays the piper is presumably free to appoint new directors and even mess about with the recipe.
I mean who is responsible for the liabilities of the accrued pension liabilities there, and are there assets to cover it ?
I'd hazard a guess in a game of hangman these might be N_ and T_X____R but perhaps that's just me being overly cynical. Maybe the Turks are buying that part too...
Didn't Tata keep the pension liabilities when they sold in 2016 ?
I imagine all the workers are now on defined contribution schemes.
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
Hang on, are they moving Scunthorpe to Turkey?
He who pays the piper is presumably free to appoint new directors and even mess about with the recipe.
Check out the owners of HS1, do you trust them?
It is not a matter of whether I trust anyone but whether the government should trust everyone. Same with Huawei in our telecoms networks, and I see in this morning's news we are belatedly wondering about Chinese involvement in Hinckley Point. In America, this would be treated as a national security issue (and to be fair, that is often a cover for naked protectionism).
4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
I think people would notice that a) nothing had changed because we were in a 'vassal state' transition, and b) debates about the negotiations on the future relationship continued to dominate politics. Passing the WA won't do anything to marginalise Farage.
He was marginalised just fine prior to the failure of the WA and the extension.
Thats what's so funny about the tories - their every action now is out of intense fear of BXP, it's why hyufd is correct no deal actually works best for the party, but without their own obstruction theyd never have caused BXP to rise so high.
Sure there would have been a rise, discontent as not much immediately changed and due to oncoming debates, but not as much. The very fact that people like BoJo and JRM reluctantly backed the WA shows that if they felt the alternative was bi Brexit lits of people who claim to hate it can live with it, and it seems reasonable than many public would feel relief.
Not all, but there would not be as intense a fear that parliament would stop ot completely as now.
Good to know the lib dems care more about attracting Tory votes than preventing No Deal. I genuinely believed you guys had found an issue you really cared about. How naive of me.
It's good to see how little you understand politics and how it works. Yes of course the Party wants to block No Deal but the Corbyn plan is to agree to an extension and then hold a GE. Okay, we buy 6-12 months (perhaps) but when the GE is held, the Conservatives will simply say "vote Swinson, get Corbyn".
Now, you may not have noticed but Corbyn isn't very popular and if the LDs were seen as aligning themselves to him by perhaps putting him into Downing Street, the Conservatives would have the ideal campaign weapon.
Boris wins a landslide, we exit without a Deal anyway and we have to endure a decade of ruinous Conservative misrule.
If Corbyn genuinely wanted to stop No Deal he'd recognise how unpopular he was and step aside in favour of Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke who might be able to command a majority in the Commons and either agree to a long extension or revoke.
That's not how Corbyn operates - he wants to be PM in order to pursue a radical socialist agenda to which many in this country are strongly opposed (including the LDs). Indeed, there are many who, given a choice between a No Deal Brexit and a Corbyn Government, would prefer the former however bad it is.
But the problem with this argument is that it depends on hypotheses about how voters might behave at a future general election. You may well be right of course, but it is impossible to be sure, and, as we all know, the generally-accepted hypotheses that led to the 2017 general election proved to be completely wrong.
If Swinson is so convinced that Corbyn cannot get a majority in the Commons she should offer to support him in return for a commitment that he will support someone else if he does not win. This would put him on the spot and also rebuild the Lib Dems position as a party that is focused on avoiding no deal.
Anecdotally the comments on my local anti-Brexit whatsapp group last night were not complimentary about Swinson.
I think this is where Swinson now is. The rest is propaganda from the Labour spinners and the Guardian.
Correct. The notion of a Harman/Clarke GoNU is fine by me but there is a problem beyond this we need to consider.
Let's say by some miracle we get the GoNU - it doesn't have the numbers to revoke but it does have the numbers for a further extension. What then? A GE? Johnson won't have gone away - he will say (rightly perhaps) he wanted to leave on 31/10 but Parliament had thwarted the will of the people and that's going to be a very powerful message. He will go round the country claiming he represents the people and everyone else represents the "liberal metropolitan elite". He might win on that platform.
The other problem comes if we don't get the GoNU and we exit without a Deal on 31/10. The LD policy may be to Rejoin but that needs a lot of development in terms of the basis for re-joining and the EU might not be keen to have a country coming and going rather like a football club like Norwich oscillating between the Premiership and the Championship. The real issue becomes the political terms and whether the LD policy would simply be to seek a more constructive relationship but short of membership with the EU.
Do you have any idea who has owned various British steelworks for decades ?
Yes, but I am not one of those who supported a campaign claiming "The Turks are coming..."
Ah, the old 'if people back policy x they are supportive of every idiot thing said by others backing x' fallacy that people like to use to comfort themselves about their superiority.
And yes, I condemned that claim in the campaign at the time.
I said for a long time here now that Jeremy Corbyn was only going to back Jeremy Corbyn to be PM.
Now it seems some are shocked that Jeremy Corbyn is only prepared to back Jeremy Corbyn to be PM.
Really!? Really!? It was blindingly obvious!
We will soon see I guess. I reckon he'll be okay with someone Labour with a mandate to get an extension and a GE.
Why? Do you think he genuinely wants someone else to get an extension and a GE?
I think his order of preference will be:
1: He is made PM, gets an extension and a GE. 2: No Deal followed by GE, he is blameless for No Deal. 3: Someone else gets an extension and then a GE. 4: No Deal with him blamed.
If he can avoid getting the blame, then he's not genuinely opposed to No Deal. I think with this offer now he has done enough not to be blamed by anyone minded to support Labour in any future GE. Anyone minded to vote Labour will say it was other politicians fault for not being willing to back Corbyn, so the solution is to vote Labour.
Are we still subsidising the sale to the Turks by £300 million? You nearly saw that number on the side of a bus.
What's the pension liability attached to the business ?
If we cannot trust the Chinese not to sell us inferior steel for our battleships, why do we trust the Turks? In America, this sale would be blocked on national security grounds.
The RN haven't had a battleship for 60 years and the steel is one of the less important components of a modern warship. It's all about the systems and weapons these days.
4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
I think people would notice that a) nothing had changed because we were in a 'vassal state' transition, and b) debates about the negotiations on the future relationship continued to dominate politics. Passing the WA won't do anything to marginalise Farage.
He was marginalised just fine prior to the failure of the WA and the extension.
Thats what's so funny about the tories - their every action now is out of intense fear of BXP, it's why hyufd is correct no deal actually works best for the party, but without their own obstruction theyd never have caused BXP to rise so high.
Sure there would have been a rise, discontent as not much immediately changed and due to oncoming debates, but not as much. The very fact that people like BoJo and JRM reluctantly backed the WA shows that if they felt the alternative was bi Brexit lits of people who claim to hate it can live with it, and it seems reasonable than many public would feel relief.
Not all, but there would not be as intense a fear that parliament would stop ot completely as now.
He knew his moment would come, which is why the Brexit Party was ready to go with a highly-professional campaign. Any concrete development in the Brexit saga would have helped him. If "Theresa May's Treaty" had passed, it would also have given him a way back.
If Boris Johnson can be PM then anybody can. I am by no means a Corbyn fan boy - I voted against him as Labour leader on both occasions - but I struggle to see why he is less suited to the role than the current occupant.
Don’t know if this has been posted, but it’s on-topic and gives a good feel of what is happening in Wisconsin and one ex-Obama staffer’s view as to how the Democrats could win a critical state that is currently too close to call... published the somewhat partisan but always entertaining Pod Save America...
If you don’t want to read the full article, their polling suggests that the message that will most make voters more likely to vote against Trump is: “Trump “proposed nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicare to pay for a tax cut that overwhelmingly benefits billionaires and big corporations”
If Boris Johnson can be PM then anybody can. I am by no means a Corbyn fan boy - I voted against him as Labour leader on both occasions - but I struggle to see why he is less suited to the role than the current occupant.
4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
I think people would notice that a) nothing had changed because we were in a 'vassal state' transition, and b) debates about the negotiations on the future relationship continued to dominate politics. Passing the WA won't do anything to marginalise Farage.
He was marginalised just fine prior to the failure of the WA and the extension.
Thats what's so funny about the tories - their every action now is out of intense fear of BXP, it's why hyufd is correct no deal actually works best for the party, but without their own obstruction theyd never have caused BXP to rise so high.
Sure there would have been a rise, discontent as not much immediately changed and due to oncoming debates, but not as much. The very fact that people like BoJo and JRM reluctantly backed the WA shows that if they felt the alternative was bi Brexit lits of people who claim to hate it can live with it, and it seems reasonable than many public would feel relief.
Not all, but there would not be as intense a fear that parliament would stop ot completely as now.
He knew his moment would come, which is why the Brexit Party was ready to go with a highly-professional campaign. Any concrete development in the Brexit saga would have helped him. If "Theresa May's Treaty" had passed, it would also have given him a way back.
But it's a much harder sell that we left non optimally than that we did not leave at all. It's the same reason remainers wont accept even a BINO because a major psychological marker will have been passed for many people.
I'm wondering if Boris' strategy was to push for No Deal in the hope one of the EU would blink, or his opponents could muster in parliament to forcibly stop him. But it appears neither of those might happen, I think that could give him a big post Brexit GE win as he should hoover the BREX vote like the Tories took the UKIP vote in 2017 but this time with the centre-left more split between Lib Dem and Labour (Particularly as Brexit has happened). Governing could be err... tricky though with crash out Brexit and a probable recession. But that would be tommorow's problem !
Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year.
Yet recruitment of 'smart graduates' for engineering jobs at £25k or £30k is far from easy.
Its yet another thing which makes me suspect that much of UK higher education is not fit for purpose.
An awful lot of graduate recruitment is no more sophisticated than checking an applicant's alma mater. The reason a degree from Scumbag College is worth less than the same degree from Footlights College Oxbridge is the brand, not because the teaching is worse or they use a different speed of light in their physics equations.
My experience is that especially in engineering quality of teaching is poor even from top universities. Science is a bit better but not great. The capacity and work effort of many graduates however is good and with some training they can become productive quickly
For me the stand out phrase here is the one about the economy, not the Tory party "purge" (getting kicked out of the Tory party is surely blessed relief for the moderates). This "radical remodelling" has always been the real agenda behind Brexit - it is totally dishonest, it is a betrayal of the working class voters who thought they were voting for a society with more solidarity not less, and it is why I personally feel little remorse about "betraying" the referendum result if that is what it takes to prevent this nihilistic Thatcherite coup.
If Boris Johnson can be PM then anybody can. I am by no means a Corbyn fan boy - I voted against him as Labour leader on both occasions - but I struggle to see why he is less suited to the role than the current occupant.
If Boris Johnson can be PM then anybody can. I am by no means a Corbyn fan boy - I voted against him as Labour leader on both occasions - but I struggle to see why he is less suited to the role than the current occupant.
If Boris Johnson can be PM then anybody can. I am by no means a Corbyn fan boy - I voted against him as Labour leader on both occasions - but I struggle to see why he is less suited to the role than the current occupant.
BoZo doesn't want to scrap Trident.
Also - where is he going to keep his lovely missiles if he forces Scotland out of the Union?
From 24/6/17 onwards it has been abundantly clear "stopping Brexit" was never Corbyn's #1 priority. It has always been and always will be about what is best for Corbyn.
Either Corbyn being the "hero" who stopped Brexit, or opponents of Corbyn being the "villain" who stood in his way of stopping Brexit is fine with him. As far as his supporters will be concerned his hands will be clean either way and he is fine with that!
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
If the inverted yield stood on its own then I think a decent case could be made for saying it was not a reliable indicator of a recession this time around. One of the key drivers of the difference in yield is inflation expectations. If there is a risk that your capital may deflate by 5-10% a year during the period of loan that has to be bought off with a higher interest rate because it would affect the value of the asset. Conversely, if the market is confident that the very low inflation/near deflation of the last decade is going to continue then there is no need for such a premium. The argument that you are "tying your money up for longer" doesn't really work when the market for government bonds is so liquid. You can check out any time you want.
Unfortunately the yield curve does not stand alone. The silly trade wars, the long term sustainability of excess consumption and excess private debt, the time since the last recession, the instability of China, there are so many indicators that a recession is likely within the next 18 months. Germany is likely to be in recession when the Q3 figures come out although this is so shallow that it would barely be noticeable. The worry is that this becomes entrenched. If it does politicians in office everywhere will struggle.
There's worrying news reports from all over:
Car sales in India during July fell at the sharpest pace for nearly 20 years, according to new data.
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said sales of cars to dealerships fell by 30.9% to 200,790 in July - the worst drop since December 2000.
The pace of the decline has accelerated in recent months as a liquidity crunch in India's shadow banking sector has dried up lines of credit to dealers and potential car buyers.
And things which look like malinvestment - from too many new restaurants to WeWork.
Politically a no deal exit might be optimal for EU politicians now. They would be able to try and blame the inevitable recession on Brexit and British intransigence.
If Boris Johnson can be PM then anybody can. I am by no means a Corbyn fan boy - I voted against him as Labour leader on both occasions - but I struggle to see why he is less suited to the role than the current occupant.
He is stupider and even more inexperienced. Johnson has been London Mayor and Foreign Secretary. Corbyn was a housing officer for Haringey fifty years ago.
But more pertinently, at a time when all sensible people are in a panic about how awful our government is, I can't see that it's a great strategy to say, 'Well, our leader's just as shit so why not take the gamble?'
4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
I think people would notice that a) nothing had changed because we were in a 'vassal state' transition, and b) debates about the negotiations on the future relationship continued to dominate politics. Passing the WA won't do anything to marginalise Farage.
This is nonsense, of course. The referendum passed 52-48. Once we leave the EU on any terms there will indeed be people who are unhappy with those terms, but they will be considerably less than 50% of voters. The majority of the country will breathe a huge sigh of relief and do all they can to ignore Farage.
Comments
And layer imports on top to see balance of payments.
Car sales in India during July fell at the sharpest pace for nearly 20 years, according to new data.
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said sales of cars to dealerships fell by 30.9% to 200,790 in July - the worst drop since December 2000.
The pace of the decline has accelerated in recent months as a liquidity crunch in India's shadow banking sector has dried up lines of credit to dealers and potential car buyers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cywd23g0g55t/car-industry
And things which look like malinvestment - from too many new restaurants to WeWork.
Nabavi's caused a crash!
The balance of payments has also improved:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
Although not as much but that's because this country can't stop spending money on imported consumer goods (see yesterday's retail sales data) and foreign holidays.
But that's what happens as a trillion quid of Osbrowne borrow and spend works its way through the economy.
I've not seen this precondition that you (and others here) have suggested. But for the leader of the Opposition to have a go is a default first option, and probably has to be given an honest try before a plan B would have a serious chance of success.
Once again, and this bears repeating, if the LDs have any chance of attracting disillusioned Conservatives (and these are the votes needed in all bar one of the most marginal seats the LDs need to gain) they cannot be seen to be gifting Corbyn the keys to No.10 no matter how "temporary" such an arrangement.
The Conservatives who are contemplating such an action will be verbally eviscerated by the Mail and while it would be harder for CCHQ, it's not easy to imagine "Vote x, get Corbyn" being trumpeted from the nearest rooftop.
Enabling even the briefest of Corbyn tenures at No.10 might deliver a short term reprieve from No Deal but it would be electorally suicidal - the outcome would be a Conservative landslide, a decade or more of their ruinous misrule and we'd leave without a Deal anyway.
I believe there is a majority in the Commons against a No Deal Brexit but that means little or nothing. I simply cannot conceive of a Conservative supporting a VoNC to enable Corbyn to become PM - I can imagine Conservatives supporting a well-worded motion opposing a No Deal and the question will be if Boris ignores Parliament (probably electorally popular) and rejects any extension offered by the EU. He has to or he's finished.
There will then be no scintilla of doubt who has led us over the cliff and who will own the consequences despite what I imagine will be the many and varied attempts to blame "Remainers" from those supportive of Johnson.
Con 37.6% (-17.8)
Lib Dem 26.5% (+14.4)
Labour: 24.6% (-2.9)
Green 11.3% (+6.3)
Its yet another thing which makes me suspect that much of UK higher education is not fit for purpose.
1. VoNC but not FTPA format passes as above
2. Boris says: disappointed. Parliament has clearly rejected the WDA and the only alternative that had a majority in the house was to eliminate the backstop. Unfortunately the EU is unwilling to negotiate on this basis. Therefore we have no option but to pursue No Deal. However, if Parliament changes its mind we would, of course, sign the WA.
3. This is not government policy but, of course, we respect the will of the house. I have therefore asked Ken Clarke and [Steven Kinnock] to jointly propose the WA for this parliaments approval. We will allow a free vote on this side of the house and strongly urge all other parties to do the same. It is time that they abandoned pursuit of their narrow party interested and focused, for once, on what is good for the country
4. WA passes and we all go home happy (* except @Philip_Thompson )
@HYUFD I understand the polling says that BXP does well in this scenario. I don’t believe that would hold up post event. Voters are just indicating their preference for JFDI. Once Brexit - any Brexit - is achieved BXP’s support will deflate considerably
Labour MPs worried about facing the wrath of their own members? Simple. Most of them don't want Brexit and certainly not delivered by Johnson.
https://twitter.com/ZoraSuleman/status/1162274063869308933
Didn't see that on a poster
Now it seems some are shocked that Jeremy Corbyn is only prepared to back Jeremy Corbyn to be PM.
Really!? Really!? It was blindingly obvious!
Unfortunately I cannot see how the scenario would work - BoJo saw potential attempts to retry the WA coming and has been categorically against it - with most tories being loyalists with the leadership against the WA as undemocratic now I just dont see how it gets over the line. The handful gained at the 4th attempt will be overcome by Tories sitting on their hands or switching to follow the leader, whose promises mean he will oppose.
I reckon he'll be okay with someone Labour with a mandate to get an extension and a GE.
Now, you may not have noticed but Corbyn isn't very popular and if the LDs were seen as aligning themselves to him by perhaps putting him into Downing Street, the Conservatives would have the ideal campaign weapon.
Boris wins a landslide, we exit without a Deal anyway and we have to endure a decade of ruinous Conservative misrule.
If Corbyn genuinely wanted to stop No Deal he'd recognise how unpopular he was and step aside in favour of Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke who might be able to command a majority in the Commons and either agree to a long extension or revoke.
That's not how Corbyn operates - he wants to be PM in order to pursue a radical socialist agenda to which many in this country are strongly opposed (including the LDs). Indeed, there are many who, given a choice between a No Deal Brexit and a Corbyn Government, would prefer the former however bad it is.
Its not modern day Bradley Hardacres.
The Scunthorpe steelworks was owned by India's Tata up to 2016.
I'd hazard a guess in a game of hangman these might be N_ and T_X____R but perhaps that's just me being overly cynical. Maybe the Turks are buying that part too...
It could be right, but if they cannot find another way to stop no deal now they might have no choice unless they are willing to admit they think Corbyn is worse than no deal.
If you don’t want to read the full article, their polling suggests that the message that will most make voters more likely to vote against Trump is: “Trump “proposed nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicare to pay for a tax cut that overwhelmingly benefits billionaires and big corporations”
https://crooked.com/articles/pollercoaster-2020-wisconsin/
I imagine all the workers are now on defined contribution schemes.
Thats what's so funny about the tories - their every action now is out of intense fear of BXP, it's why hyufd is correct no deal actually works best for the party, but without their own obstruction theyd never have caused BXP to rise so high.
Sure there would have been a rise, discontent as not much immediately changed and due to oncoming debates, but not as much. The very fact that people like BoJo and JRM reluctantly backed the WA shows that if they felt the alternative was bi Brexit lits of people who claim to hate it can live with it, and it seems reasonable than many public would feel relief.
Not all, but there would not be as intense a fear that parliament would stop ot completely as now.
If Swinson is so convinced that Corbyn cannot get a majority in the Commons she should offer to support him in return for a commitment that he will support someone else if he does not win. This would put him on the spot and also rebuild the Lib Dems position as a party that is focused on avoiding no deal.
Anecdotally the comments on my local anti-Brexit whatsapp group last night were not complimentary about Swinson.
Nobody has any problem with rich Turks just as they didn't with rich Indians from Tata.
Similarly its why Osborne is now a lackey of a rich Russian.
Our political leaders, however...
Let's say by some miracle we get the GoNU - it doesn't have the numbers to revoke but it does have the numbers for a further extension. What then? A GE? Johnson won't have gone away - he will say (rightly perhaps) he wanted to leave on 31/10 but Parliament had thwarted the will of the people and that's going to be a very powerful message. He will go round the country claiming he represents the people and everyone else represents the "liberal metropolitan elite". He might win on that platform.
The other problem comes if we don't get the GoNU and we exit without a Deal on 31/10. The LD policy may be to Rejoin but that needs a lot of development in terms of the basis for re-joining and the EU might not be keen to have a country coming and going rather like a football club like Norwich oscillating between the Premiership and the Championship. The real issue becomes the political terms and whether the LD policy would simply be to seek a more constructive relationship but short of membership with the EU.
And yes, I condemned that claim in the campaign at the time.
Now 28% for Warren is more believable but I'd caution against going in and doing a bank job on her at current odds of 5-2.
I think his order of preference will be:
1: He is made PM, gets an extension and a GE.
2: No Deal followed by GE, he is blameless for No Deal.
3: Someone else gets an extension and then a GE.
4: No Deal with him blamed.
If he can avoid getting the blame, then he's not genuinely opposed to No Deal. I think with this offer now he has done enough not to be blamed by anyone minded to support Labour in any future GE. Anyone minded to vote Labour will say it was other politicians fault for not being willing to back Corbyn, so the solution is to vote Labour.
But it appears neither of those might happen, I think that could give him a big post Brexit GE win as he should hoover the BREX vote like the Tories took the UKIP vote in 2017 but this time with the centre-left more split between Lib Dem and Labour (Particularly as Brexit has happened).
Governing could be err... tricky though with crash out Brexit and a probable recession. But that would be tommorow's problem !
As indicative evidence for/against the EU's preparedness, it's of practically zero value.
That's why Corbyn can't be given the opportunity.
From 24/6/17 onwards it has been abundantly clear "stopping Brexit" was never Corbyn's #1 priority. It has always been and always will be about what is best for Corbyn.
Either Corbyn being the "hero" who stopped Brexit, or opponents of Corbyn being the "villain" who stood in his way of stopping Brexit is fine with him. As far as his supporters will be concerned his hands will be clean either way and he is fine with that!
Because in this scenario pigs will avoid the traffic jams by flying in.
But more pertinently, at a time when all sensible people are in a panic about how awful our government is, I can't see that it's a great strategy to say, 'Well, our leader's just as shit so why not take the gamble?'