Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy the WH2020 nomination favourite slot
Since the Democratic WH2020 nomination betting opened there have now been four different contenders who have occupied the betting favourite slot on the Betfair exchange. First it was Senator Bernie Sanders, the 77 year old from Vermont, then ex-VP Jo Biden, 76, who has had two stints there. After her impressive performance in the first debate Senator Kamala Harris took over only to see her betting position decline sharply after a lacklustre second debate appearance last week
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/marycreaghmp/status/1159203990179123201?s=21
I don't think she'll eventually get the nod, mind.
The current 3.85-3.9 looks to me as though the market has gone too far in the opposite direction. Time to lay the favourite again, methinks.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/07/john-mcdonnell-threatens-march-palace-tell-queen-taking-boris1/
Unlike Boris.
Just as well you added that last line...
It isn't the first Primary for 6 months! Meanwhile, there is an election in Canada soon. Australia had one, with almost no interest until a few days before.
I'll pay attention when the voting starts and not before. That takes a bloody age in itself.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/aug/07/monsters-men-magic-trump-awoke-angry-feminist-witches
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1159215455061598213
I note her implied presidency odds are now 2.3 when they were previously 2.1. Something to keep an eye on for everyone.
Against the expectations of those writing headers here.
It's also a really interesting, long-running betting event because of the way the primaries work.
I have seen it all before and over several Governments of different colours Labour/Coalition/Tory and the present crock of shit. I think it is brainwashing and the joke is people actually pay money to get brain washed and don't realise they are being manipulated! I see right through it all...
The broadsheets will concentrate on it not least because they need stuff to fill their pages and even the Telegraph still seems to draw the line at 'Made in Chelsea'.
He does seem to lead the path on a few issues then Corbyn follows.
If Scottish voters elect a majority of representatives on a platform for another referendum and those representatives vote for that in Holyrood then he would not stand in their way. (With the change of the word "a" to "another")
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1744572/#Comment_1744572
My kids don't even have TVs. They've never bought a newspaper in their lives. They never even consider taking a free one.
But say it very quietly as some people on here think we should be thrown in jail for entertaining such seditious thoughts.
No comment
Brexit. People may have changed their mind, so we MUST have a re-vote cos we think you got it wrong.
Scotland. People may have changed their mind, so we MUSTN'T have a re-vote cos we think you were spot on first time.
That GE aint gonna win itself you know.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7322691/Jeremy-Corbyn-vs-Corbynista-Labour-leaders-Brexit-Party-opponent-anti-war-ex-Marxist.html
https://www.spiked-online.com/author/james-heartfield/
Orders from Moscow?
Say you don't HAVE to vote SNP to get Indyref 2. Positioning for both VONC, and next Holyrood election. Have a go at soft pro-Indy votes instead?
I said it was a wild stab.
Will it be the Lib Dems they try to reassure next?
As an aside, I don't think it's fair to characterise his position as supporting another referendum. He's simply saying he wouldn't override the will of the Holyrood Parliament.
This article suggests that there isn’t going to be a majority for anyone else, either, which is why the opposition are scrabbling around for more arcane ways in which to prevent no deal:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/07/new-rebel-bid-to-halt-no-deal-brexit-amid-fury-at-pms-enforcer
The loathing of Cummings - by many supposedly on his side - shines through.
Maybe Corbyn's done a deal with Davey to have Swinson removed from above him via the back door?
I didn't want Boris for PM and I think he will be bad for the country. But that doesn't change my view on Brexit one iota.
Mick Hume used to edit a magazine called Living Marxism that was pure Libertarianism from cover to cover. The Marxists and the Libertarians travel together. That’s the real Marxists not the lefty’s in Labour so lazily called Marxist or Communist, the Labour Party is and effectively always has been just another conservative party. How many Labour election wins, how much power, yet the House of Lords still stands, the voting system still the same serving vested interests of the political establishment whilst many millions of votes are rendered meaningless resulting in no representation. The monarch still head of state. What has Labour ever done remotely Marxist or communist?
What is so educational about everything that’s happened to U.K. politics in recent years is how you can now clearly understand how Hitlers Third Reich came together. The conservative party’s, like Labour and the Tory's have been for so long, we’re swept aside in a toxic and sinister atmosphere.
There’s posts today, excited ones from politicians, celebrating Herdsons decision. Those politicians are wrong, ignorant to what is really going on and of how sad and regressive and dangerous such resignations are. Am I alone? Can you not feel how toxic and sinister the atmosphere is becoming?
Now these are good New England Irish Catholics who wouldn't p*** on Trump if he was on fire, but they are blue-collar, barely-managing people. A lot of Trump's supporters are in a similar situation and he needs to retain them.
1) If rebel Tories agreed to vote against their party in a confidence vote, but only on the condition that Labour support a time-limited grandee-led GoNAfaE, would Labour agree to the deal?
2) Alternatively, if a VONC passed, and then the Commons had a vote *rejecting* Jeremy Corbyn as PM, would the Labour leadership agree to instead back a GoNAfaE led by somebody else, or would they leave Boris in place and let it all burn?
3) If the Labour leadership's answer to (2) was to support the grandee, would they be able to bring their leave-supporting MPs with them?
1) No
2) Let it burn
3) N/A, but probably No
Corbyn doesn't really do compromise: that's sort of his USP. How do you explain to the enraged Twitter mob of Labour members why Yvette Cooper is suddenly PM and somehow that's democratic? I just don't see how the Labour leadership can implicitly agree with the Tory rebels assertion that even No Deal would be preferable to a Corbyn government.
How does he explain that to Labour members? Well, they just STOPPED NO DEAL! And they've got a GENERAL ELECTION! HOORAY!
I think at least in the case of (1) that's easier to explain than why they've just crashed out of the EU when they could have prevented it, and left a right-wing Tory government in power, potentially until 2022, when they could have removed it and got a general election.
The question is whether that option having been defeated and/or clearly shown to be unavailable, he'd support a caretaker Tory for the limited purpose of getting an extension and calling election, or whether he'd keep the current Tory government in place.
I'm just curious what actions Corbyn has ever taken to make you believe a compromise deal is even possible? It just feels like he wins either way if he doesn't deal, either through a chaotic Tory sponsored No Deal, or by getting into Downing Street. Dealing just has so much more potential downside for him.
And then on the eleventh day he has a choice:
- be seen as an enabler of a Tory No Deal Brexit by Metropolitan Remainers. (But hopefully not piss off voters in Leave seats, and allow the Tories to collect most of the blame for any problems that ocurred during No Deal Brexit )
- allow some random caretaker figure (Caroline Lucas? Ken Clarke?) to be PM for an afternoon to ask for an extension. Which might be seen as a betrayal... but it also keeps the Tory Civil War going.
The biggest danger to Corbyn is allow Tory No Deal Brexit to happen... but then it all goes OK. Because then he gets dumped by Metropolitan Remainers, while the Tories get the credit from Leavers of all stripes.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea
It's one of the top 10 most read politics articles on the Guardian website today, despite being three years old. Probably because of stuff like:
"David Cameron has vented his frustration at Boris Johnson over Europe, as he ridiculed the mayor of London over his apparent call for a second EU referendum and came close to accusing him of backing a vote to leave to boost his chances of one day leading the Conservative party."
and:
"The suggestion by the London mayor shows the influence of Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director and former special adviser to Michael Gove, who has suggested that Cameron should use a leave vote to demand better terms from the EU."
PS I can't post on here unless I go via the Vanilla website. Is it just me?
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/937736858817257473
Outside of elections and leadership contest there are few really active UK betting markets.
The site was set up in 2004 primarily then because of that year's White House race
This house
- Has no confidence in the Prime Minister, who has turned out to be a total fucking maniac
- Notes that Ken Clarke is less of a maniac, and has promised to stablilize the situation and call an election at an appropriate time in the near future
- Humbly requests that Her Majesty name him Prime Minister as quickly as possible before Boris bollockses things up even worse
2) 5 Tories tweet that they will vote for this motion, but won't support a VONC without the Clarke part clearly established
3) Labour move amend this to delete "Ken Clarke" and substitute "Jeremy Corbyn"
4) Motion is to amend defeated
5) ???
Does Corbyn really vote this down? It's not even a matter of *negotiating* with the Tories: He gets an extension and an election to implement his party's policy, all he has to do is vote down the government...
* Specific language and procedural details may vary
Also yes I think even then Corbyn votes it down. As per my previous post: it's a game where he wins either way and his opponents can only choose between immediate and deferred defeat. I'm sure he'll find a reason why: claiming he doesn't trust Johnson to resign, saying he needs a guarantee the election will be before such and such date, that it's plain undemocratic, etc.
The vanilla website seems to work fine, so I suppose I’ll just have to get used to it. But I daren’t even press the “read the full story” link because the browser goes mental again, so I’m afraid I only see the first few sentences of articles, which is fine for certain writers, but you really need to read the whole thing to appreciate a Herdson, Cyclefree, Palmer or Antifrank piece.
The signs are modest, but they are there: Labour is moving slowly but steadily away from the rampant British nationalism of Better Together and towards adopting a pretty-much neutral position on Scottish independence. Folk like Ian Murray know it and are incandescent.
It is even a trend (even more modest) within Lib Dem circles.
Better Together is now recognised as a Tory plot, and a huge elephant trap into which Miliband and Clegg allowed their weak/daft Scottish branches to be lured into. The error will not be repeated. British nationalism is alive and well within Tory hearts, but Labour have lost the appetite for it.
I suspect the travails of Labour’s sister-party in Madrid, vis a vis Catalonia has alerted wiser heads. Madrid has dug itself into a hole and it is going to be one hell of a job getting out of it. Not dissimilar to the vindictive partition of Ireland and subsequent periods of Direct Rule, which is still haunting English politics a century later. An error of huge and then-unforeseen importance.
SLab, or parts of SLab, can kick and scream all it likes, but with 40% of its supporters backing independence it’ll have to dial down the Union Jackery one way or another.
But the truth is, from baldrick to Herdson, resigning because the leadership of party, and policy direction is “wacko” is sad. But not just sad, democratically dangerous.
If you want succinct herdson is saying the Conservative party is not being conservative. And I am saying we rely on the Tory and Labour parties sharing power and not to give in to voters and “change stuff”, to keep us a conservative country locked in a fake quarrel that’s apparently between left and right.
Voters are goats on the other side of the bridge.
A terrible mistake, yes, but not vindictive
(And by not “automatic priority” the reality is it won’t be debated.)