Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the WH2020 Democratic nomination race those paying the leas

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the WH2020 Democratic nomination race those paying the least attention to the campaign are backing Biden/Sanders

Quinnipac national poll

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    1st like Plaid for Assembly
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    He forgot to add up. Remain parties have a clear lead over Leave parties.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    I'm not sure why Goodwin puts up polling from 2017 which turned out to be completely wrong in the GE rather than the 2019 polling which of course shows a steep decline for Labour but also a bit of a fall for the Conservatives.

    Labour have lost more than half their vote but the Conservatives have lost a quarter of theirs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095
    edited July 2019
    Fifth like Labour in the last London local by-election

    Edit/ Oops, fourth (behind the Women’s equality party). But only because the Greens didn’t stand.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    IanB2 said:

    Fifth like Labour in the last London local by-election

    Really? I missed that one. Taking the fight to the Tories eh?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    An alternative interpretation is that those paying attention to the campaign are the ones who haven't made their minds up yet, whereas those not paying attention are already certain, so they don't need to.

    I couldn't see any detail in the methodology about likely voter filtering, so not sure what of anything they did there
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    1st like Plaid for Assembly

    You may want to support Plaid but they will not be able to win a referendum, indeed they could only be in power in a coalition of parties all of which are pro Union

    Indeed Plaid are the only party in Wales seeking independence
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    Apalling admission - I've not being paying attention. Have any of the Democratic minnows actually ended their Presidential campaign since the first debate?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Apalling admission - I've not being paying attention. Have any of the Democratic minnows actually ended their Presidential campaign since the first debate?

    One that I know of. Can't even recall his name, but he is running for Senate instead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1155891091100618755

    Positive, positive, positive. Must think positively. Don't let then bad thoughts in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095
    In Brecon there are signs that the Tories are pulling back voters from the Brexit Party Ltd., while Tory remainers continue to move toward the LibDems.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    TGOHF said:
    Boris is getting pelters , quick mention Alex Salmond.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    stodge said:

    I'm not sure why Goodwin puts up polling from 2017 which turned out to be completely wrong in the GE rather than the 2019 polling which of course shows a steep decline for Labour but also a bit of a fall for the Conservatives.

    Labour have lost more than half their vote but the Conservatives have lost a quarter of theirs.

    Yes, that was very much my question too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    She's pedestrian? She's a frickin' Ferrari compared to Sleepy Joe.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    She's pedestrian? She's a frickin' Ferrari compared to Sleepy Joe.
    And? Is that really the bar?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    I'm not sure why Goodwin puts up polling from 2017 which turned out to be completely wrong in the GE rather than the 2019 polling which of course shows a steep decline for Labour but also a bit of a fall for the Conservatives.

    Labour have lost more than half their vote but the Conservatives have lost a quarter of theirs.

    Yes, that was very much my question too.
    I think he is just making the point that the rot set in some time ago for Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2019
    Well I'm betting going to continue to bet against Harris, her 3.7 price on Betfair is completely crackers given her polling.
    Sanders and Warren have good organisation in California too, as well as Biden polling strongly. I think Harris may well win it but with the proportional delegate split she'll gain a small number of votes over the field.
    She's also not polling too well in Iowa or New Hampshire either right now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    I think that he is old and slow. The Dems really should do better but better is being somewhat coy about coming forward.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    Apalling admission - I've not being paying attention. Have any of the Democratic minnows actually ended their Presidential campaign since the first debate?

    One that I know of. Can't even recall his name, but he is running for Senate instead.
    Thanks. He really cut through on name recognition then!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
    Not Trump?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    1st like Plaid for Assembly

    Plaid can only get into Government in Wales though with Tory support on today's Welsh Assembly poll
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    Boris is getting pelters , quick mention Alex Salmond.
    Tremendous photo that captures the moment - Affable, optimistic Boris meets the gurning granny of grievance....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/454906-trump-is-on-the-path-to-reelection
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
    He beats Trump on head-to-head polling.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Corbyn is beginning to remind me of that sad character in a League Of Gentlemen .

    The one who used to be in a band called Creme Brûlée and who keeps turning up for the reunion only to found out that it’s all one big joke at his expense .

    The jokes not funny any more . As a Labour supporter I’ve really had enough , time for a change of leader .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    I'll half agree with that, the media coverage around Harris and Warren (And odds) make it seem like they're in the lead but Biden still polling like a frontrunner.

    Here's a piece from Nate Silver on the race : https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harriss-debate-bounce-is-fading/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    I'll half agree with that, the media coverage around Harris and Warren (And odds) make it seem like they're in the lead but Biden still polling like a frontrunner.

    Here's a piece from Nate Silver on the race : https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harriss-debate-bounce-is-fading/
    The key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire though have seen the Biden lead fading
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/454906-trump-is-on-the-path-to-reelection
    Yes, Boris and Trump both looking good for re election at the moment
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    In Brecon there are signs that the Tories are pulling back voters from the Brexit Party Ltd., while Tory remainers continue to move toward the LibDems.

    I have had a little lay on the LDs. Boris' Tories dont mind a bit of dishonesty and disgrace.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    I'll half agree with that, the media coverage around Harris and Warren (And odds) make it seem like they're in the lead but Biden still polling like a frontrunner.

    Here's a piece from Nate Silver on the race : https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harriss-debate-bounce-is-fading/
    The key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire though have seen the Biden lead fading
    Polling has been kind of crazy in Iowa, I don't think he's particularly fading in New Hampshire though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    Free yourself from that stale thinking. It's boxing you in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    O/T:

    "Rise in extremist violence puts Germans on edge

    Both hard-left and hard-right behind spate of attacks in increasingly shrill political climate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/842303e0-ad4f-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2

    (Available via Google search)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    nico67 said:

    Corbyn is beginning to remind me of that sad character in a League Of Gentlemen .

    The one who used to be in a band called Creme Brûlée and who keeps turning up for the reunion only to found out that it’s all one big joke at his expense .

    The jokes not funny any more . As a Labour supporter I’ve really had enough , time for a change of leader .

    Jo Swinson then
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/454906-trump-is-on-the-path-to-reelection
    Yes, Boris and Trump both looking good for re election at the moment
    It may help your cause if you dial down on the Boris Trump comparison

    I have serious concerns about Boris but he is not anything like that obnoxious leader of the US
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
    He beats Trump on head-to-head polling.
    Because he has name recognition.

    Donald Trump scores 43-44% against every opponent. Every single one.

    The only difference is that there are far fewer don't knows when Biden is the candidate, because everyone knows Sleepy Joe.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    Boris is getting pelters , quick mention Alex Salmond.
    Tremendous photo that captures the moment - Affable, optimistic Boris meets the gurning granny of grievance....
    Time for specsavers Harry. Naughty teenager who has had a good skelping.
  • Apalling admission - I've not being paying attention. Have any of the Democratic minnows actually ended their Presidential campaign since the first debate?

    Eric Swalwell is out - he faces a primary challenge for his safe House seat in California.

    There's not yet a compelling reason for minnows to drop out. They may as well pursue the Travolta-Micawber strategy (stayin' alive and hoping something turns up). Most of them aren't burning huge amounts of cash, and could yet have a "moment".

    The ones in danger aren't so much the real minnows as those for whom there is a real case but it just isn't happening. They are likely to have spent bigger, and if they aren't getting traction then money dries up and it all gets embarrassing. I'm thinking Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Klobucher. There is a case to be made for each of them - but it just ain't happening and it must be painful for them. People like Yang, Gabbard, and Williamson don't have that weight of expectation and can roll on in a spirit of cheery optimism.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    Terrible reception in Scotland for the Great Man.

    Thought they'd be pleased and excited to see him up there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095

    1st like Plaid for Assembly

    You may want to support Plaid but they will not be able to win a referendum, indeed they could only be in power in a coalition of parties all of which are pro Union

    Indeed Plaid are the only party in Wales seeking independence
    Nevertheless the fact that they have for the first time topped a welsh poll suggests that they are finally breaking out from the language heartlands. The lower score for Westminster is unlikely to be language related (and is probably voting system related), since anyone worried about the language issue would be unlikely to support them at assembly level.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    Updated Electoral Calculus forecast:

    Con + DUP = 321 seats
    Lab + LD + Greens + SNP + PC = 321 seats
    Ind Unionist = 1 seat
    Sinn Fein = 7 seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    US politics is *so* boring!

    (only kidding!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
    From 1973 to 2009, Biden served a distinguished Senate career. During his time in the Senate, Biden won respect as one of the body's leading foreign policy experts, serving as chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations for several years. His many foreign policy positions included advocating for strategic arms limitation with the Soviet Union, promoting peace and stability in the Balkans, expanding NATO to include former Soviet-bloc nations and opposing the First Gulf War. In later years, he called for American action to end the genocide in Darfur and spoke out against President George W. Bush's handling of the Iraq War, particularly opposing the troop surge of 2007.

    He has a great dentist too :D
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Anecdata - I asked friends who live in California and are very active politically (they were pictured at Sanders' statewide launch just behind him) what they thought of Harris. They said she hadn't left much impression on them, good or bad.

    Being local is good, but if you don't really make an impact the effect is limited. She's in a tight 3-way race in CA at the moment:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html

    But I agree with Mike's main point, that detached voters are less likely to vote in primaries.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    IanB2 said:

    1st like Plaid for Assembly

    You may want to support Plaid but they will not be able to win a referendum, indeed they could only be in power in a coalition of parties all of which are pro Union

    Indeed Plaid are the only party in Wales seeking independence
    Nevertheless the fact that they have for the first time topped a welsh poll suggests that they are finally breaking out from the language heartlands. The lower score for Westminster is unlikely to be language related (and is probably voting system related), since anyone worried about the language issue would be unlikely to support them at assembly level.
    And it confirms the crisis facing Wales labour party
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    edited July 2019
    nico67 said:

    Corbyn is beginning to remind me of that sad character in a League Of Gentlemen .

    The one who used to be in a band called Creme Brûlée and who keeps turning up for the reunion only to found out that it’s all one big joke at his expense .

    The jokes not funny any more . As a Labour supporter I’ve really had enough , time for a change of leader .


    "Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations. Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our opposition to a No Deal Brexit! The order is: engage the Corbyn drivel!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their tittering and braying... while we conduct Austerity Debates. Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Liverpool, where the sun is warm, and so is the... comradeship.

    "A great day, comrades. We sail into history!"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095
    kinabalu said:

    Terrible reception in Scotland for the Great Man.

    Thought they'd be pleased and excited to see him up there.

    Maybe he needs a longer aerial?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
    He beats Trump on head-to-head polling.
    Because he has name recognition.

    Donald Trump scores 43-44% against every opponent. Every single one.

    The only difference is that there are far fewer don't knows when Biden is the candidate, because everyone knows Sleepy Joe.
    Precisely WHEN in the head to head polling does being only a couple of points (Which translates to a Trump win) ahead of Trump become an issue for the various Democrats trying to get nominated ?
  • I think the betting slightly understates Biden as it's weighted towards highly engaged people who slightly patronisingly feel that, when people take a closer look, they'll realise they are only saying Biden because he's the one they know.

    That said, his polling lead doesn't make him a favourite, and there is an element of truth in the patronising point. Choosing Biden feels backward looking. It is saying to people "you answered incorrectly in 2016... so now try again and replace the septuagenarian you liked then with a better septuagenarian". I cannot help but think that the way you beat Trump is with a narrative that says "we get why you voted for Trump, because you weren't happy with the old, establishment figure we dished up. But this time we have someone new and fresh".

    The theoretical match-ups are a massive bum-steer and a poor predictor historically. You need to think how a campaign would pan out with each person up against Trump.

    But, despite all the above, it's perfectly credible Dems will go for a "safe" but ultimately weak choice in Biden - there are strong parallels with Kerry in 2004, where people looked at a new breed of leader and decided none of those on offer were better than the stale but competent older bloke.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    IanB2 said:

    1st like Plaid for Assembly

    You may want to support Plaid but they will not be able to win a referendum, indeed they could only be in power in a coalition of parties all of which are pro Union

    Indeed Plaid are the only party in Wales seeking independence
    Nevertheless the fact that they have for the first time topped a welsh poll suggests that they are finally breaking out from the language heartlands. The lower score for Westminster is unlikely to be language related (and is probably voting system related), since anyone worried about the language issue would be unlikely to support them at assembly level.
    And it confirms the crisis facing Wales labour party
    Indeed. The Conservative strategy of encouraging Wales and Scotland to leave the UK through being horrendous at govt is paying political dividends.
  • Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
    He beats Trump on head-to-head polling.
    Because he has name recognition.

    Donald Trump scores 43-44% against every opponent. Every single one.

    The only difference is that there are far fewer don't knows when Biden is the candidate, because everyone knows Sleepy Joe.
    Precisely WHEN in the head to head polling does being only a couple of points (Which translates to a Trump win) ahead of Trump become an issue for the various Democrats trying to get nominated ?
    When? Around August 2020.

    Now is the time to choose the product that is easiest to sell when the vast majority of people tune in to the issue.

    Theoretical match-ups are a huge bum-steer as they are so affected by "don't know" and attraction to the comfortingly familiar. Very few people know who Andrew Yang or Pete Buttigieg or Marianne Williamson are right now (in more than an "I vaguely heard the name" way). But if one of them turns out to become candidate, then people are going to know about them in excruciating detail after Labour Day 2020. So choose the one who, WHEN people find out about them, they'll like them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    I think the betting slightly understates Biden as it's weighted towards highly engaged people who slightly patronisingly feel that, when people take a closer look, they'll realise they are only saying Biden because he's the one they know.

    That said, his polling lead doesn't make him a favourite, and there is an element of truth in the patronising point. Choosing Biden feels backward looking. It is saying to people "you answered incorrectly in 2016... so now try again and replace the septuagenarian you liked then with a better septuagenarian". I cannot help but think that the way you beat Trump is with a narrative that says "we get why you voted for Trump, because you weren't happy with the old, establishment figure we dished up. But this time we have someone new and fresh".

    The theoretical match-ups are a massive bum-steer and a poor predictor historically. You need to think how a campaign would pan out with each person up against Trump.

    But, despite all the above, it's perfectly credible Dems will go for a "safe" but ultimately weak choice in Biden - there are strong parallels with Kerry in 2004, where people looked at a new breed of leader and decided none of those on offer were better than the stale but competent older bloke.

    Kerry was polling nowhere near as well against Bush in 2004 as Biden is v Trump.

    Kerry as an elitist left liberal is closer to Warren than the more centrist and blue collar Biden.

    Where is your evidence historical matchups are a poor predictor? McCain polled better thsn Bush v Gore in 2000, Lieberman in some polls did best against Bush in 2004.

    Both Obama and Clinton polled as winners in 2008, McCain and Romney did best for the Republicans in 2008 and 2012 and likely no alternative would have done better.

    Kasich polled best for the Republicans in 2016 and may have won the popular vote like McCain in 2000
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    1st like Plaid for Assembly

    You may want to support Plaid but they will not be able to win a referendum, indeed they could only be in power in a coalition of parties all of which are pro Union

    Indeed Plaid are the only party in Wales seeking independence
    Nevertheless the fact that they have for the first time topped a welsh poll suggests that they are finally breaking out from the language heartlands. The lower score for Westminster is unlikely to be language related (and is probably voting system related), since anyone worried about the language issue would be unlikely to support them at assembly level.
    And it confirms the crisis facing Wales labour party
    Indeed. The Conservative strategy of encouraging Wales and Scotland to leave the UK through being horrendous at govt is paying political dividends.
    Why? The Welsh Tories lead today's Welsh Westminster poll and would hold the balance of power in the Assembly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh these arguments seem awfully familiar. But Harris still needs to excite. She has been disappointingly pedestrian so far.

    Despite Mike's reservations, I think this always has been and remains Biden's to lose. Someone needs to be totally on fire to take away the feeling that he is the one to beat Trump and that is all that matters.
    Can you think of one positive attributes Biden has that does not include the word "Obama"?
    He beats Trump on head-to-head polling.
    Because he has name recognition.

    Donald Trump scores 43-44% against every opponent. Every single one.

    The only difference is that there are far fewer don't knows when Biden is the candidate, because everyone knows Sleepy Joe.
    Wrong.

    Trump scores only 39% v Biden in the latest poll
    https://www.scribd.com/document/419763495/Fox-News-Poll-July-25

    Not sure which will be more amusing, the left's meltdown after the Boris victory party after defeating Corbyn, or the left's meltdown after the Trump victory party after beating Warren or Harris!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Given their slight slip in the polling in Wales, the Brexit party is currently on course to win 0 seats.

    These are the ones they should probably direct most of their efforts toward, and are also the best tactical "pro Brexit" vote betwixt themselves and the Tories.

    Best prospect : Torfaen
    Llanelli
    Islwyn
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    kinabalu said:

    Terrible reception in Scotland for the Great Man.

    Thought they'd be pleased and excited to see him up there.

    He scuttled out by the back door, big jessie boy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Trump became president because he won the rust belt.

    There was no Trump surge in the rust belt.

    These two statements are both true because what happened is the Dem vote did not turn out to vote and the Dem presidential vote cratered without any surge in the GOP vote.

    Saying the Dems should appeal to Trump voters when their issue is that they did not appeal to Dem voters last time out seems like a losing strategy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Alistair said:

    Trump became president because he won the rust belt.

    There was no Trump surge in the rust belt.

    These two statements are both true because what happened is the Dem vote did not turn out to vote and the Dem presidential vote cratered without any surge in the GOP vote.

    Saying the Dems should appeal to Trump voters when their issue is that they did not appeal to Dem voters last time out seems like a losing strategy.

    They need to pick the boy from PA whose father worked cleaning furnaces ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Trump became president because he won the rust belt.

    There was no Trump surge in the rust belt.

    These two statements are both true because what happened is the Dem vote did not turn out to vote and the Dem presidential vote cratered without any surge in the GOP vote.

    Saying the Dems should appeal to Trump voters when their issue is that they did not appeal to Dem voters last time out seems like a losing strategy.

    They need to pick the boy from PA whose father worked cleaning furnaces ;)
    Sherrod Brown. Still time for my boy to reverse his decision.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2019
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Trump became president because he won the rust belt.

    There was no Trump surge in the rust belt.

    These two statements are both true because what happened is the Dem vote did not turn out to vote and the Dem presidential vote cratered without any surge in the GOP vote.

    Saying the Dems should appeal to Trump voters when their issue is that they did not appeal to Dem voters last time out seems like a losing strategy.

    They need to pick the boy from PA whose father worked cleaning furnaces ;)
    Sherrod Brown. Still time for my boy to reverse his decision.
    If he decides he's going to run my book is worth £365 on him vs Trump at even money. No wait, that's Cory Booker - Sherrod Brown is worth £127.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Trump became president because he won the rust belt.

    There was no Trump surge in the rust belt.

    These two statements are both true because what happened is the Dem vote did not turn out to vote and the Dem presidential vote cratered without any surge in the GOP vote.

    Saying the Dems should appeal to Trump voters when their issue is that they did not appeal to Dem voters last time out seems like a losing strategy.

    They need to pick the boy from PA whose father worked cleaning furnaces ;)
    Sherrod Brown. Still time for my boy to reverse his decision.
    Sherrie's Ohio result was very weak compared to other Democrats in the rust belt last year. He outperformed Clinton by a much smaller margin than, for example, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Given their slight slip in the polling in Wales, the Brexit party is currently on course to win 0 seats.

    These are the ones they should probably direct most of their efforts toward, and are also the best tactical "pro Brexit" vote betwixt themselves and the Tories.

    Best prospect : Torfaen
    Llanelli
    Islwyn

    They could take one of these seats, but they absolutely need the right candidate.

    These Valleys seats only ever elect Labour or ex-Labour independents (SO Davies or Peter Law or Dai Davies).

    It is no good TBP parachuting in some English ex-Tory (like Reckless). TBP need an ex-Labour, popular, local candidate to do it.

    (Llanelli is complicated because there is a significant Plaid Cymru vote, and splitting the Labour vote may let PC in. The local party, though, has been in some disarray for years).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited July 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Given their slight slip in the polling in Wales, the Brexit party is currently on course to win 0 seats.

    These are the ones they should probably direct most of their efforts toward, and are also the best tactical "pro Brexit" vote betwixt themselves and the Tories.

    Best prospect : Torfaen
    Llanelli
    Islwyn

    They could take one of these seats, but they absolutely need the right candidate.

    These Valleys seats only ever elect Labour or ex-Labour independents (SO Davies or Peter Law or Dai Davies).

    It is no good TBP parachuting in some English ex-Tory (like Reckless). TBP need an ex-Labour, popular, local candidate to do it.

    (Llanelli is complicated because there is a significant Plaid Cymru vote, and splitting the Labour vote may let PC in. The local party, though, has been in some disarray for years).
    Law and D Davies were Blaenau Gwent (as was Trish Davies). But they were effectively labour candidates - arguably, they were more loyal to the party than Alun Davies, who eventually replaced them.

    I wonder if Aberavon wouldn't be a better prospect, however, given who the MP is.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Terrible reception in Scotland for the Great Man.

    Thought they'd be pleased and excited to see him up there.

    Maybe he needs a longer aerial?
    Station tannoy: "This service has been cancelled due to a shortage of train crew."

    Sunil: "Maybe you need to invest in some taller train crew?"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Terrible reception in Scotland for the Great Man.

    Thought they'd be pleased and excited to see him up there.

    Maybe he needs a longer aerial?
    Station tannoy: "This service has been cancelled due to a shortage of train crew."

    Sunil: "Maybe you need to invest in some taller train crew?"
    Announcement at Gatwick:

    'The 17.04 Southern service to Bedford has been cancelled. This is because...'

    Exasperated commuter, very loudly, 'because you're shit.'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited July 2019

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Failing to go ahead with tidal power remains, in a field of pretty stiff competition including the poll tax, the new GCSEs, the Iraq War and tuition fees, the stupidest decision any government has made in my lifetime.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Democrats have any sense they will pick Biden who has the best chance of beating Trump.

    Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election

    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/454906-trump-is-on-the-path-to-reelection
    Yes, Boris and Trump both looking good for re election at the moment
    True, especially if Boris can get Nige to play ball.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    AndyJS said:
    I don't get that.

    Parliament returns on September 3rd

    To call a GE they would have to VoNC the Government. There are then 14 days to form a new Government at the end of which a GE is called if no new Government has been formed which commands the support of the House.

    The minimum election campaign by law is then 25 working days which takes you to Tuesday 22nd October. I assume they would stick with the Thursday date so the earliest you could hold an election is Thursday 24th October. Has he forgotten that it is 25 working days not 25 days for the campaign?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    We currently have a government of liars....

    What Vote Leave leaders really said about no-deal Brexit

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/what-vote-leave-leaders-really-said-about-no-deal-brexit
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
    Greg Clark was steered terribly. I know rather a lot about it.

    It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.

    Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.

    And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    AndyJS said:
    I don't get that.

    Parliament returns on September 3rd

    To call a GE they would have to VoNC the Government. There are then 14 days to form a new Government at the end of which a GE is called if no new Government has been formed which commands the support of the House.

    The minimum election campaign by law is then 25 working days which takes you to Tuesday 22nd October. I assume they would stick with the Thursday date so the earliest you could hold an election is Thursday 24th October. Has he forgotten that it is 25 working days not 25 days for the campaign?
    If Johnson wants a GE he seeks and gains the necessary 2/3 HoC majority by September 5th.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    As I said earlier Boris is scaring the socks of me and judging by the reactions of those who want to remain, the SNP and labour supporters he is doing the same

    However, the big question to ask is

    'Has Boris caught the mood of the Nation'

    And I expect that will become more obvious one way or another as his opposition leave the field of play open for him for six weeks while they enjoy their summer holidays
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Given their slight slip in the polling in Wales, the Brexit party is currently on course to win 0 seats.

    These are the ones they should probably direct most of their efforts toward, and are also the best tactical "pro Brexit" vote betwixt themselves and the Tories.

    Best prospect : Torfaen
    Llanelli
    Islwyn

    They could take one of these seats, but they absolutely need the right candidate.

    These Valleys seats only ever elect Labour or ex-Labour independents (SO Davies or Peter Law or Dai Davies).

    It is no good TBP parachuting in some English ex-Tory (like Reckless). TBP need an ex-Labour, popular, local candidate to do it.

    (Llanelli is complicated because there is a significant Plaid Cymru vote, and splitting the Labour vote may let PC in. The local party, though, has been in some disarray for years).
    Law and D Davies were Blaenau Gwent (as was Trish Davies). But they were effectively labour candidates - arguably, they were more loyal to the party than Alun Davies, who eventually replaced them.

    I wonder if Aberavon wouldn't be a better prospect, however, given who the MP is.
    Possibly Aberavon is better.

    Of course, Law was Blaenau G and Davies was Merthyr T. They won by arguing that they were the true representatives of the community, they were the authentic Labour voice in the South Wales Valleys, and the imposed candidates weren't.

    That is the trick TBP need to pull off to win the seats.

    Personally, I think it is beyond TBP.

    They'll choose some public-school educated English pipsqueak, or a dilapidated one-trick pony, or a career whack-job with an army of carers to make sure he doesn't set fire to the constituency, or a slithering multi-millionaire part-time banker and full-time serpent -- and Labour will romp home.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    AndyJS said:
    I don't get that.

    Parliament returns on September 3rd

    To call a GE they would have to VoNC the Government. There are then 14 days to form a new Government at the end of which a GE is called if no new Government has been formed which commands the support of the House.

    The minimum election campaign by law is then 25 working days which takes you to Tuesday 22nd October. I assume they would stick with the Thursday date so the earliest you could hold an election is Thursday 24th October. Has he forgotten that it is 25 working days not 25 days for the campaign?
    If Johnson wants a GE he seeks and gains the necessary 2/3 HoC majority by September 5th.
    But then Hanretty is still wrong because in that case the earliest we could have an election is 25 working days after September 5th which October 10th. I don't see where he gets this arbitrary number of October 17th from.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
    Greg Clark was steered terribly. I know rather a lot about it.

    It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.

    Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.

    And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.

    I agree both the Tidal Bay Lagoon and Hinckley Point were terrible decisions but the buck stops with the Government. Only weak and incompetent leaders blame their poor decisions on the steer their subordinates gave them.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited July 2019
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Terrible reception in Scotland for the Great Man.

    Thought they'd be pleased and excited to see him up there.

    Maybe he needs a longer aerial?
    Station tannoy: "This service has been cancelled due to a shortage of train crew."

    Sunil: "Maybe you need to invest in some taller train crew?"
    Announcement at Gatwick:

    'The 17.04 Southern service to Bedford has been cancelled. This is because...'

    Exasperated commuter, very loudly, 'because you're shit.'
    At King'sCross on the 25th: "This service will not be calling at [station name] because it is a train not calling at one of its scheduled stops."
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
    Greg Clark was steered terribly. I know rather a lot about it.

    It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.

    Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.

    And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.

    I agree both the Tidal Bay Lagoon and Hinckley Point were terrible decisions but the buck stops with the Government. Only weak and incompetent leaders blame their poor decisions on the steer their subordinates gave them.
    But it is not Clark or the Government blaming the subordinates. It is someone outside who has knowledge of the circumstances and apparently knows where the blame lies. I agree ministers should not blame civil servants but that doesn't mean the rest of us shouldn't have knowledge of exactly where the failings lie.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    As I said earlier Boris is scaring the socks of me and judging by the reactions of those who want to remain, the SNP and labour supporters he is doing the same

    However, the big question to ask is

    'Has Boris caught the mood of the Nation'

    And I expect that will become more obvious one way or another as his opposition leave the field of play open for him for six weeks while they enjoy their summer holidays

    You make it sound like only the opposition parties break from the HoC for summer whilst the Tories soldier on through August.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
    Greg Clark was steered terribly. I know rather a lot about it.

    It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.

    Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.

    And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.

    If Johnson is spending money on grandiose projects left right and centre then he can make the tidal lagoon happen. He can stick some sodding pot plants on it and call it a garden lagoon if he wants, just as long as it's built.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    How typical that the Gradgrinds in the Treasury buggered the tidal lagoon project.

    It’s one of those grand projects that the Union desperately needs to prove its relevance.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    AndyJS said:
    I don't get that.

    Parliament returns on September 3rd

    To call a GE they would have to VoNC the Government. There are then 14 days to form a new Government at the end of which a GE is called if no new Government has been formed which commands the support of the House.

    The minimum election campaign by law is then 25 working days which takes you to Tuesday 22nd October. I assume they would stick with the Thursday date so the earliest you could hold an election is Thursday 24th October. Has he forgotten that it is 25 working days not 25 days for the campaign?
    If Johnson wants a GE he seeks and gains the necessary 2/3 HoC majority by September 5th.
    But in order to do that he would have to seek an extension of A50 as neither the opposition parties or the Gawkward squad would allow an election to take place a couple of weeks before a potential no deal exit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    As I said earlier Boris is scaring the socks of me and judging by the reactions of those who want to remain, the SNP and labour supporters he is doing the same

    However, the big question to ask is

    'Has Boris caught the mood of the Nation'

    And I expect that will become more obvious one way or another as his opposition leave the field of play open for him for six weeks while they enjoy their summer holidays

    You make it sound like only the opposition parties break from the HoC for summer whilst the Tories soldier on through August.
    The cabinet are required to work 7 days a week through these summer holidays
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
    Greg Clark was steered terribly. I know rather a lot about it.

    It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.

    Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.

    And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.

    I agree both the Tidal Bay Lagoon and Hinckley Point were terrible decisions but the buck stops with the Government. Only weak and incompetent leaders blame their poor decisions on the steer their subordinates gave them.
    But it is not Clark or the Government blaming the subordinates. It is someone outside who has knowledge of the circumstances and apparently knows where the blame lies. I agree ministers should not blame civil servants but that doesn't mean the rest of us shouldn't have knowledge of exactly where the failings lie.
    Fair enough. Let's have that knowledge made public then...
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,755
    TGOHF said:
    “Better than Charlie Elphicke I believe”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    AndyJS said:
    I don't get that.

    Parliament returns on September 3rd

    To call a GE they would have to VoNC the Government. There are then 14 days to form a new Government at the end of which a GE is called if no new Government has been formed which commands the support of the House.

    The minimum election campaign by law is then 25 working days which takes you to Tuesday 22nd October. I assume they would stick with the Thursday date so the earliest you could hold an election is Thursday 24th October. Has he forgotten that it is 25 working days not 25 days for the campaign?
    If Johnson wants a GE he seeks and gains the necessary 2/3 HoC majority by September 5th.
    But in order to do that he would have to seek an extension of A50 as neither the opposition parties or the Gawkward squad would allow an election to take place a couple of weeks before a potential no deal exit.
    I am not sure that's necessarily true. Rightly or wrongly, Corbyn will think he can win the election and seek an extension as one of his first acts as PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    AndyJS said:
    I don't get that.

    Parliament returns on September 3rd

    To call a GE they would have to VoNC the Government. There are then 14 days to form a new Government at the end of which a GE is called if no new Government has been formed which commands the support of the House.

    The minimum election campaign by law is then 25 working days which takes you to Tuesday 22nd October. I assume they would stick with the Thursday date so the earliest you could hold an election is Thursday 24th October. Has he forgotten that it is 25 working days not 25 days for the campaign?
    If Johnson wants a GE he seeks and gains the necessary 2/3 HoC majority by September 5th.
    But in order to do that he would have to seek an extension of A50 as neither the opposition parties or the Gawkward squad would allow an election to take place a couple of weeks before a potential no deal exit.
    Not at all. If there is to be an October election it will not have conditions

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
    Greg Clark was steered terribly. I know rather a lot about it.

    It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.

    Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.

    And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.

    I agree both the Tidal Bay Lagoon and Hinckley Point were terrible decisions but the buck stops with the Government. Only weak and incompetent leaders blame their poor decisions on the steer their subordinates gave them.
    But it is not Clark or the Government blaming the subordinates. It is someone outside who has knowledge of the circumstances and apparently knows where the blame lies. I agree ministers should not blame civil servants but that doesn't mean the rest of us shouldn't have knowledge of exactly where the failings lie.
    To my knowledge, the strike price was too high. The taxpayer is not there to be scalped.

    However, that position may now have softened, and perhaps there could be a meeting in the middle. Then value has been won for the electricity consumer, and a wonderful project can go ahead.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    As I said earlier Boris is scaring the socks of me and judging by the reactions of those who want to remain, the SNP and labour supporters he is doing the same

    However, the big question to ask is

    'Has Boris caught the mood of the Nation'

    And I expect that will become more obvious one way or another as his opposition leave the field of play open for him for six weeks while they enjoy their summer holidays

    I don't know who it was mentioned music hall comedians a few days ago. How they could tour the country doing the same act. Whereas TV burned through a routine in a night.
    My gut feeling is Boris fans will love him. Haters will hate him. The group in the middle will need to see some progress, rather than the same lines over and over again.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    That Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. The guy must be concerned now that his company is going tits up and the bailifs will be calling shortly. Time for Boris to go in and get a better strike price out of him. And get building the bloody thing.

    The trick was to do both Swansea and Cardiff. The strike price then could be fifteen below Hinckley C. It was on offer.

    The Civil Servants blocked it.
    Greg Clark took the decision and rejected it, not civil servants.
    Greg Clark was steered terribly. I know rather a lot about it.

    It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.

    Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.

    And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.

    If Johnson is spending money on grandiose projects left right and centre then he can make the tidal lagoon happen. He can stick some sodding pot plants on it and call it a garden lagoon if he wants, just as long as it's built.
    Hahaha brilliant idea. I can see him raiding his local garden centre now. :lol:
This discussion has been closed.