Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the WH2020 Democratic nomination race those paying the leas
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the WH2020 Democratic nomination race those paying the least attention to the campaign are backing Biden/Sanders
Quinnipac national poll
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Labour have lost more than half their vote but the Conservatives have lost a quarter of theirs.
Edit/ Oops, fourth (behind the Women’s equality party). But only because the Greens didn’t stand.
I couldn't see any detail in the methodology about likely voter filtering, so not sure what of anything they did there
Indeed Plaid are the only party in Wales seeking independence
Positive, positive, positive. Must think positively. Don't let then bad thoughts in.
Sanders and Warren have good organisation in California too, as well as Biden polling strongly. I think Harris may well win it but with the proportional delegate split she'll gain a small number of votes over the field.
She's also not polling too well in Iowa or New Hampshire either right now.
Instead they look likely to pick Warren or Harris and ensure Trump's re election
The one who used to be in a band called Creme Brûlée and who keeps turning up for the reunion only to found out that it’s all one big joke at his expense .
The jokes not funny any more . As a Labour supporter I’ve really had enough , time for a change of leader .
Here's a piece from Nate Silver on the race : https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harriss-debate-bounce-is-fading/
"Rise in extremist violence puts Germans on edge
Both hard-left and hard-right behind spate of attacks in increasingly shrill political climate"
https://www.ft.com/content/842303e0-ad4f-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2
(Available via Google search)
I have serious concerns about Boris but he is not anything like that obnoxious leader of the US
Donald Trump scores 43-44% against every opponent. Every single one.
The only difference is that there are far fewer don't knows when Biden is the candidate, because everyone knows Sleepy Joe.
There's not yet a compelling reason for minnows to drop out. They may as well pursue the Travolta-Micawber strategy (stayin' alive and hoping something turns up). Most of them aren't burning huge amounts of cash, and could yet have a "moment".
The ones in danger aren't so much the real minnows as those for whom there is a real case but it just isn't happening. They are likely to have spent bigger, and if they aren't getting traction then money dries up and it all gets embarrassing. I'm thinking Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Klobucher. There is a case to be made for each of them - but it just ain't happening and it must be painful for them. People like Yang, Gabbard, and Williamson don't have that weight of expectation and can roll on in a spirit of cheery optimism.
Thought they'd be pleased and excited to see him up there.
Con + DUP = 321 seats
Lab + LD + Greens + SNP + PC = 321 seats
Ind Unionist = 1 seat
Sinn Fein = 7 seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
(only kidding!)
He has a great dentist too
Being local is good, but if you don't really make an impact the effect is limited. She's in a tight 3-way race in CA at the moment:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html
But I agree with Mike's main point, that detached voters are less likely to vote in primaries.
"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations. Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our opposition to a No Deal Brexit! The order is: engage the Corbyn drivel!
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their tittering and braying... while we conduct Austerity Debates. Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Liverpool, where the sun is warm, and so is the... comradeship.
"A great day, comrades. We sail into history!"
That said, his polling lead doesn't make him a favourite, and there is an element of truth in the patronising point. Choosing Biden feels backward looking. It is saying to people "you answered incorrectly in 2016... so now try again and replace the septuagenarian you liked then with a better septuagenarian". I cannot help but think that the way you beat Trump is with a narrative that says "we get why you voted for Trump, because you weren't happy with the old, establishment figure we dished up. But this time we have someone new and fresh".
The theoretical match-ups are a massive bum-steer and a poor predictor historically. You need to think how a campaign would pan out with each person up against Trump.
But, despite all the above, it's perfectly credible Dems will go for a "safe" but ultimately weak choice in Biden - there are strong parallels with Kerry in 2004, where people looked at a new breed of leader and decided none of those on offer were better than the stale but competent older bloke.
Now is the time to choose the product that is easiest to sell when the vast majority of people tune in to the issue.
Theoretical match-ups are a huge bum-steer as they are so affected by "don't know" and attraction to the comfortingly familiar. Very few people know who Andrew Yang or Pete Buttigieg or Marianne Williamson are right now (in more than an "I vaguely heard the name" way). But if one of them turns out to become candidate, then people are going to know about them in excruciating detail after Labour Day 2020. So choose the one who, WHEN people find out about them, they'll like them.
Kerry as an elitist left liberal is closer to Warren than the more centrist and blue collar Biden.
Where is your evidence historical matchups are a poor predictor? McCain polled better thsn Bush v Gore in 2000, Lieberman in some polls did best against Bush in 2004.
Both Obama and Clinton polled as winners in 2008, McCain and Romney did best for the Republicans in 2008 and 2012 and likely no alternative would have done better.
Kasich polled best for the Republicans in 2016 and may have won the popular vote like McCain in 2000
Trump scores only 39% v Biden in the latest poll
https://www.scribd.com/document/419763495/Fox-News-Poll-July-25
Not sure which will be more amusing, the left's meltdown after the Boris victory party after defeating Corbyn, or the left's meltdown after the Trump victory party after beating Warren or Harris!
These are the ones they should probably direct most of their efforts toward, and are also the best tactical "pro Brexit" vote betwixt themselves and the Tories.
Best prospect : Torfaen
Llanelli
Islwyn
There was no Trump surge in the rust belt.
These two statements are both true because what happened is the Dem vote did not turn out to vote and the Dem presidential vote cratered without any surge in the GOP vote.
Saying the Dems should appeal to Trump voters when their issue is that they did not appeal to Dem voters last time out seems like a losing strategy.
These Valleys seats only ever elect Labour or ex-Labour independents (SO Davies or Peter Law or Dai Davies).
It is no good TBP parachuting in some English ex-Tory (like Reckless). TBP need an ex-Labour, popular, local candidate to do it.
(Llanelli is complicated because there is a significant Plaid Cymru vote, and splitting the Labour vote may let PC in. The local party, though, has been in some disarray for years).
I wonder if Aberavon wouldn't be a better prospect, however, given who the MP is.
Sunil: "Maybe you need to invest in some taller train crew?"
'The 17.04 Southern service to Bedford has been cancelled. This is because...'
Exasperated commuter, very loudly, 'because you're shit.'
The Civil Servants blocked it.
Parliament returns on September 3rd
To call a GE they would have to VoNC the Government. There are then 14 days to form a new Government at the end of which a GE is called if no new Government has been formed which commands the support of the House.
The minimum election campaign by law is then 25 working days which takes you to Tuesday 22nd October. I assume they would stick with the Thursday date so the earliest you could hold an election is Thursday 24th October. Has he forgotten that it is 25 working days not 25 days for the campaign?
What Vote Leave leaders really said about no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/what-vote-leave-leaders-really-said-about-no-deal-brexit
It was one of the biggest errors of May's term. She could have had 1.2 million homes in Wales powered by tidal power. That's pretty much all of them. A huge thing to trumpet. Proper green credentials. For buttons.
Instead, she writes a cheque for a trillion quid. To do what? Who knows.
And worse, she had political cover. Labour wanted the barrages. They still do. Corbyn referenced it in his first encounter with PM Boris.
However, the big question to ask is
'Has Boris caught the mood of the Nation'
And I expect that will become more obvious one way or another as his opposition leave the field of play open for him for six weeks while they enjoy their summer holidays
Of course, Law was Blaenau G and Davies was Merthyr T. They won by arguing that they were the true representatives of the community, they were the authentic Labour voice in the South Wales Valleys, and the imposed candidates weren't.
That is the trick TBP need to pull off to win the seats.
Personally, I think it is beyond TBP.
They'll choose some public-school educated English pipsqueak, or a dilapidated one-trick pony, or a career whack-job with an army of carers to make sure he doesn't set fire to the constituency, or a slithering multi-millionaire part-time banker and full-time serpent -- and Labour will romp home.
It’s one of those grand projects that the Union desperately needs to prove its relevance.
However, that position may now have softened, and perhaps there could be a meeting in the middle. Then value has been won for the electricity consumer, and a wonderful project can go ahead.
My gut feeling is Boris fans will love him. Haters will hate him. The group in the middle will need to see some progress, rather than the same lines over and over again.