I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
I think you significantly under-estimate the appetite for betrayal that exists in England. Given the demonstrable appetite there is for it in Scotland that surprises me!
Maybe we have just learned to ignore their whingeing.
That will keep you sane, to be sure, but politically it works. People like to feel betrayed. Any deal from here will be gold-dust for Farage. On that basis I just don’t see how No Deal is avoidable. The Tories are now the BXP. Any deviation from that and they lose. On that HYUFD is 100% correct.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
Let's hope no MPs read PB or they will be alerted to this cunning plan.
If the principle of voters’ voices being represented is so important, why do we not have PR ? In that context, an odd MP out of 650 going AWOL is hardly a pressing matter, and voters in the constituency can deliver their verdict at the next election in any event.
A good point. As a Tory David is more concerned with the residents of a fifth of one city going underrepresented than he is about a fifth of the entire country being so.
Not a good point. I am interested in practical, deliverable policies. You build constitutional castles in the sky for all the good it'll do you.
You also shouldn't derive my preferred policies from my current party membership. The relationship runs the other way.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal ay's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is goingse everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
I think you significantly under-estimate the appetite for betrayal that exists in England. Given the demonstrable appetite there is for it in Scotland that surprises me!
Maybe we have just learned to ignore their whingeing.
That will keep you sane, to be sure, but politically it works. People like to feel betrayed. Any deal from here will be gold-dust for Farage. On that basis I just don’t see how No Deal is avoidable. The Tories are now the BXP. Any deviation from that and they lose. On that HYUFD is 100% correct.
But will Big G resign?
It’s always harder to do than to say - especially when your side is winning. But either way I would never doubt Mr G’s integrity. He is clearly very torn. But one thing is certain: the former Conservative and Unionist Party is no more. It is the BXP and English nationalist.
I am very torn. I will resign soon after November 1st but for me it's not the achievement of a deal that matters, which is the deciding factor for Big G I believe, but when the Tory party reaches a steady state. If it does so with Boris at the helm I'm off. If there is going to be a leadership challenge then I will stay to vote.
But yes it is difficult to give up membership and a vote although you are right about the party's new direction. As observed also by Peter Oborne on the radio yesterday.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
You might be right about people understanding about Brexit. You are being severely optimistic about the feelings around Brexit, anger, betrayal, national decline, them and us, disappearing after Brexit. If they don't someone whether it is Farage or someone else, will use those feelings to create a similar movement against the new establishment.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
How many Spartans are in cabinet? Is it just Priti Patel? Presumably she would resign if Bozo tried to reheat May's deal.
Dominic Cummings has sidelined the 'Spartans' but the cabinet includes the chairman and other influential members of the ERG
It is reported that Cummings wants a deal and I expect his skills will see a deal delivered in time
I am pleased with the Boris bounce but I have a deep unease about where this is going. For now I am content that Boris is laying out a popular manifesto and is attacking labour in it's heartlands.
I do think labour have a very big 'Corbyn' problem but I do not see a change this side of a GE
Politics is more febrile right now than I can ever recall. Even the days of "who runs Britain" in the early 70s didn't feel quite like this although that was probably the closest with 2 vociferously opposed factions who could see nothing in the position of the other.
I want a deal and Brexit. I had almost given up believing that could be achieved but I now have a feint hope again after the ineptitude of May that it can be delivered. I think/hope that Boris is still being underestimated. We shall see.
I find the choice between no deal and revoke very difficult. Both are highly sub optimal and I would find it hard to support any party that delivered either. It would be a failure of government.
I also believe strongly in fiscal rectitude. That doesn't seem to be on offer at all but is probably a secondary consideration at this point.
Sadly feint may indeed be the word.
Woops! I will attend JRM's study for the appropriate punishment forthwith.
As an aside, Gasly's 7 for a podium, but pre-practice was 191 to win (sadly the each way was only top 2). If he continues to improve then certain circuits (Singapore being the most obvious) could see him have some nice odds.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
The point about Peterborough is that the BXP cost the Tories the seat.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
The point about Peterborough is that the BXP cost the Tories the seat.
Second.....like Jeremy Hunt... If the `troubled' O'Mara does resign and I think that is still to be seen, this will be a test for the new REMAIN alliance between LDs and Greens and TIG that seems to have snuck under the radar.
Admittedly it is Clegg's old stamping ground but the Greens have really established themselves in Sheffield with the ex-Mayor drawing on the City Council's tree-felling to build support.
Getting a stand-down deal with the Greens will be tricky, if O'Mara does resign....I still think he may change his mind: (good salary, plenty of perks and a nice pension).
....and a General Election imminent, so what is the point of troubling the voters twice in weeks?
Perhaps a more pertient question to ask is how many more O'Maras and Onasanyas are Corbyn's Labour Party installing as replacements for MPs standing down? Has quality control been upgraded/installed in winnable seats?
All parties can be caught out by snap elections, where candidate selection has to be rushed, or landslides, where empty suits in unwinnable seats win.
All parties including the Conservatives: see Charlie Elphicke and the other one.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
”My hunch is that he is extremely scared by the idea. Like many of his kind, outward bravado is the bluffer’s mask on a pulsating mass of insecurities.”
Just because Bozo has sacked everyone who used to hate him (when it didn’t matter to their careers), he’s being described as bold. But he isn’t bold, he’s a coward who has just spent a month hiding behind the sofa avoiding the media. If he were brave, he’d be willing to appoint capable intelligent people whether they liked him or not.
If he were bold, he’d be here in the town square meeting and greeting. That he is staying away speaks volumes.
Rawnsley concludes that Bozo is petrified by an election but that it may nevertheless be unavoidable.
But in order to call an election Boris needs to get a 2/3 majority of MPs to vote for one. And that could only be achieved with Labour support. That support would be there of course - Corbyn could hardly refuse after all his talk of wanting an election. But there would be a price - Labour would say that we could not possibly go into an October election with the threat of no deal looming a few days after polling day. And the other opposition parties, and the Tory awkward squad, would agree with that. It is, after all, a very reasonable stance.
So If Boris wanted his election he would be forced to go cap in hand to the EU and seek a further delay to A50, the length of which would be dictated by Labour and the EU. His do or die pledge to leave on 31 October would thus be nullified and he would have the worst possible start to his election campaign.
One thing I'd like to say about this situation: we need to be careful that this does not further stigmatise mental health issues. In O’Mara's case, his issues have led him to act in very unsuitable (and nasty) ways towards others, but that's far from the case for all sufferers.
Having said that, I'd also query how much his issues are down to mental health issues, and how much because he's a git. The fact he's been doing gittish things for years even before entering parliament does slightly indicate his behaviour may not be all down to the pressure of the job.
I think we have to suspend judgment - assessing people we know well is hard enough, let alone someone who we mainly know through tweets. Hell, we all know each other better than that, but I'd hesitate to draw up a personality assessment of anyone here (well, maybe SeanT). But in the places I've worked, someone admitting to problems with alcohol as well as mental health wouldn't be instantly sacked, so long as they were taking steps to tackle the problems.
More broadly, I agree with David - we need to get away from the idea that being an MP is a uniquely hair-shirty thing for which all normal rights are suspended - otherwise we will miss out on a chunk of talent. Sure, there will always be someone willing to stand, but we don't want natural selection based on masochism.
It does erode the idea that MPs are elected as individuals, but that it only the case to a limited extent and the 12-month limit and the fact that the MP chooses the proxy largely covers that.
Like others I think that 12 months is too long but he is right that proxies are a sane way forward. Those of us that remember MPs being brought out of hospital for votes in the late 70s find it astonishing that 40 years later things are not much better.
It should be remembered that the Callaghan government fell because the PM ordered a terminally ill MP, Alfred Broughton, *not* to travel to Westminster (the fear was that the journey itself from Yorkshire might kill him - Broughton died five days later). Also, when the Labour whips requested a pair for Broughton, the Tory Chief Whip accurately replied that pairing was never a convention for confidence motions but then offered to abstain himself, believing that he had offered a commitment to his opposite number. This offer to commit career suicide was then refused by Labour. Nobler days.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
”My hunch is that he is extremely scared by the idea. Like many of his kind, outward bravado is the bluffer’s mask on a pulsating mass of insecurities.”
Just because Bozo has sacked everyone who used to hate him (when it didn’t matter to their careers), he’s being described as bold. But he isn’t bold, he’s a coward who has just spent a month hiding behind the sofa avoiding the media. If he were brave, he’d be willing to appoint capable intelligent people whether they liked him or not.
If he were bold, he’d be here in the town square meeting and greeting. That he is staying away speaks volumes.
Rawnsley concludes that Bozo is petrified by an election but that it may nevertheless be unavoidable.
But in order to call an election Boris needs to get a 2/3 majority of MPs to vote for one. And that could only be achieved with Labour support. That support would be there of course - Corbyn could hardly refuse after all his talk of wanting an election. But there would be a price - Labour would say that we could not possibly go into an October election with the threat of no deal looming a few days after polling day. And the other opposition parties, and the Tory awkward squad, would agree with that. It is, after all, a very reasonable stance.
So If Boris wanted his election he would be forced to go cap in hand to the EU and seek a further delay to A50, the length of which would be dictated by Labour and the EU. His do or die pledge to leave on 31 October would thus be nullified and he would have the worst possible start to his election campaign.
With respect that will not happen
Conservative mps would not support it so the 2/3 majority would evaporate
Surely 12 months, as suggested in the header, is far too long a period for such a proxy arrangement to be allowed, even if you can stomach the principle - and the way in which it fundamentally undermines the role of MPs - in the first place?
In any event, O'Mara is a terrible example to be using the further this idea. He's strung out his announcement to resign, and even then said he's only going to do so in September. Surely this is just so he can collect his salary a little longer? It's hard to have any sympathy at all. The bloke just seems to be an utterly selfish boor. Parliament will be better without him, as would the licensed trade in Sheffield from what I've heard through other channels.
I'm not going to die in a ditch for the detail. If people think 12 months is too long then fair enough.
To give some idea of my thinking though, I specifically said that it was to cover an entire parliament (i.e. between elections), so is a cumulative total: it could be a single span or, say, four periods of 3 months for someone undergoing drawn-out medical treatment involving several serious operations.
It was the concept I really wanted to express support for.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be Mayble about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
Boris will build those old maids cycle superhighways to get to church.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
The point about Peterborough is that the BXP cost the Tories the seat.
And lost.
Of course - they will never win many seats, maybe none at all. But they can be incredibly destructive nevertheless. That’s why Johnson has decided to turn the Tories into BXP.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
The point about Peterborough is that the BXP cost the Tories the seat.
And lost.
Of course - they will never win many seats, maybe none at all. But they can be incredibly destructive nevertheless. That’s why Johnson has decided to turn the Tories into BXP.
Into a party that has its supporters but consistently loses? I think that he is smarter than that.
Fascinating to see the poll variation last evening. A 10-point jump for the Conservatives with Deltapoll is just 3 points with ComRes. The movement seems to be intra rather than inter bloc at this time.
Of the four polls last night, three have the Con-TBP bloc at 44% and one has 45%.The Lab-LD-Green bloc is 50% with ComRes and 49% with Opinium and similar (I suspect) with the others.
As is often the case, it's not a question of how much has changed but how little.
One thing I'd like to say about this situation: we need to be careful that this does not further stigmatise mental health issues. In O’Mara's case, his issues have led him to act in very unsuitable (and nasty) ways towards others, but that's far from the case for all sufferers.
Having said that, I'd also query how much his issues are down to mental health issues, and how much because he's a git. The fact he's been doing gittish things for years even before entering parliament does slightly indicate his behaviour may not be all down to the pressure of the job.
I think we have to suspend judgment - assessing people we know well is hard enough, let alone someone who we mainly know through tweets. Hell, we all know each other better than that, but I'd hesitate to draw up a personality assessment of anyone here (well, maybe SeanT). But in the places I've worked, someone admitting to problems with alcohol as well as mental health wouldn't be instantly sacked, so long as they were taking steps to tackle the problems.
More broadly, I agree with David - we need to get away from the idea that being an MP is a uniquely hair-shirty thing for which all normal rights are suspended - otherwise we will miss out on a chunk of talent. Sure, there will always be someone willing to stand, but we don't want natural selection based on masochism.
It does erode the idea that MPs are elected as individuals, but that it only the case to a limited extent and the 12-month limit and the fact that the MP chooses the proxy largely covers that.
Like others I think that 12 months is too long but he is right that proxies are a sane way forward. Those of us that remember MPs being brought out of hospital for votes in the late 70s find it astonishing that 40 years later things are not much better.
It should be remembered that the Callaghan government fell because the PM ordered a terminally ill MP, Alfred Broughton, *not* to travel to Westminster (the fear was that the journey itself from Yorkshire might kill him - Broughton died five days later). Also, when the Labour whips requested a pair for Broughton, the Tory Chief Whip accurately replied that pairing was never a convention for confidence motions but then offered to abstain himself, believing that he had offered a commitment to his opposite number. This offer to commit career suicide was then refused by Labour. Nobler days.
I think Wetherill was an assistant whip rather than chief whip. If he'd been Chief Whip he wouldn't have been considered for Speaker.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
The success of Farage is not a function of the UK's relationship with the EU, but of the UK political class's detachment from the UK's geopolitical position.
As long as we have mainstream politicians who adopt a pose of believing in Britain as a great force in the world despite the reality, Farage will be there to exploit the discrepancy. It's not hard to imagine how being outside the EU could create even more fertile ground for him.
Going back to Jared O'Mara, I think people are in danger of conflating his autism, which is not a mental health condition, with whatever else he might be suffering from. Of course we are always told how Labour are inclusive, no-discriminatory etc so should obviously have made reasonable adjustments to allow someone with a disability to do the job. If he is also suffering from, for example, depression then he should be allowed time to recover from it.
Second.....like Jeremy Hunt... If the `troubled' O'Mara does resign and I think that is still to be seen, this will be a test for the new REMAIN alliance between LDs and Greens and TIG that seems to have snuck under the radar.
Admittedly it is Clegg's old stamping ground but the Greens have really established themselves in Sheffield with the ex-Mayor drawing on the City Council's tree-felling to build support.
Getting a stand-down deal with the Greens will be tricky, if O'Mara does resign....I still think he may change his mind: (good salary, plenty of perks and a nice pension).
....and a General Election imminent, so what is the point of troubling the voters twice in weeks?
Perhaps a more pertient question to ask is how many more O'Maras and Onasanyas are Corbyn's Labour Party installing as replacements for MPs standing down? Has quality control been upgraded/installed in winnable seats?
All parties can be caught out by snap elections, where candidate selection has to be rushed, or landslides, where empty suits in unwinnable seats win.
All parties including the Conservatives: see Charlie Elphicke and the other one.
What will happen to him if there is an autumn election? Surely as he is currently suspended and facing prosecution he won't be endorsed by the Tories, in which case he will inevitably lose his seat?
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
Boris will build those old maids cycle superhighways to get to church.
Is having gained 10 pounds in a half week of complete self indulgence not depressing enough? I'm off to the gym.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
Boris will build those old maids cycle superhighways to get to church.
Is having gained 10 pounds in a half week of complete self indulgence not depressing enough? I'm off to the gym.
Fascinating to see the poll variation last evening. A 10-point jump for the Conservatives with Deltapoll is just 3 points with ComRes. The movement seems to be intra rather than inter bloc at this time.
Of the four polls last night, three have the Con-TBP bloc at 44% and one has 45%.The Lab-LD-Green bloc is 50% with ComRes and 49% with Opinium and similar (I suspect) with the others.
As is often the case, it's not a question of how much has changed but how little.
But are Lab-LibDem-Greens going to vote as a bloc? Will the next election be a coupon election? I have my doubts.
Whereas if Boris makes the right noises, the only reason for the Brexit Party to put up canidates is Farage's ego. Not a small issue, but not a coupon .
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
Boris will build those old maids cycle superhighways to get to church.
Is having gained 10 pounds in a half week of complete self indulgence not depressing enough? I'm off to the gym.
10 pounds! What the hell were you eating: scones and profiteroles all week??
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
Boris will build those old maids cycle superhighways to get to church.
Is having gained 10 pounds in a half week of complete self indulgence not depressing enough? I'm off to the gym.
10 pounds! What the hell were you eating: scones and profiteroles all week??
Stop it! Some of us are trying to resist temptation.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
The success of Farage is not a function of the UK's relationship with the EU, but of the UK political class's detachment from the UK's geopolitical position.
As long as we have mainstream politicians who adopt a pose of believing in Britain as a great force in the world despite the reality, Farage will be there to exploit the discrepancy. It's not hard to imagine how being outside the EU could create even more fertile ground for him.
Britain really is a great force in the world and we should be very proud of that. Very few countries have more global influence than us, possibly just the US and China. Regardless of Brexit we are likely to remain in the top 10 countries influencing the world for the next 25 years or so (probably top 5 if we dont Brexit).
The difference between the 21st century and earlier centuries is that the influence is spread around many more countries than previously, that is also a good thing and should be celebrated.
Our problems are around our economy not our being a force in the world.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
Skiing in the Sella Ronda (one of my favourites) and we regularly saw Ommpah bands
Yet we all know why this is. He is forced into linguistic contortions because he cannot say what he really thinks - we should Leave so Labour can win a GE and impose hardline socialist economic policies which being in the EU stops.
The problem is large swathes of his Party want us to remain - His civil war is as destabilising as the Conservative one but in the Conservative one, the Roundheads have triumphed and driven the Cavaliers to the fringes.
In essence, the can has been kicked once again by both parties. Labour remain marooned in a linguistic morass as Corbyn struggles to say what he doesn't mean and mean what he doesn't say. For the Conservatives and especially for those for whom a No Deal is absolutely, definitely, probably the end, well, the end is in sight.
The game of bluff, counter-bluff and poker goes on as the UK keeps raising the rhetorical stakes in the hope the EU will blink but the EU haven't done so yet. If or when we exit without a WA, Boris will doubtless wrap himself in the Union Jack and blame the perfidious Europeans for our present woes - oddly enough, just like May did.
Those Conservatives who have announced their party loyalty ends with the prospect of a No Deal now have some hard decisions to make. Those Labour supporters who cannot countenance Leave now have some hard decisions to make but in truth we have been approaching this point since January - as someone once said, nothing really has changed.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
The point about Peterborough is that the BXP cost the Tories the seat.
And lost.
Of course - they will never win many seats, maybe none at all. But they can be incredibly destructive nevertheless. That’s why Johnson has decided to turn the Tories into BXP.
Into a party that has its supporters but consistently loses? I think that he is smarter than that.
Most Tory members voted BXP in May. There is no difference between the two parties - unless we leave with a deal. And that’s where the betrayal will kick in.
Yet we all know why this is. He is forced into linguistic contortions because he cannot say what he really thinks - we should Leave so Labour can win a GE and impose hardline socialist economic policies which being in the EU stops.
The problem is large swathes of his Party want us to remain - His civil war is as destabilising as the Conservative one but in the Conservative one, the Roundheads have triumphed and driven the Cavaliers to the fringes.
In essence, the can has been kicked once again by both parties. Labour remain marooned in a linguistic morass as Corbyn struggles to say what he doesn't mean and mean what he doesn't say. For the Conservatives and especially for those for whom a No Deal is absolutely, definitely, probably the end, well, the end is in sight.
The game of bluff, counter-bluff and poker goes on as the UK keeps raising the rhetorical stakes in the hope the EU will blink but the EU haven't done so yet. If or when we exit without a WA, Boris will doubtless wrap himself in the Union Jack and blame the perfidious Europeans for our present woes - oddly enough, just like May did.
Those Conservatives who have announced their party loyalty ends with the prospect of a No Deal now have some hard decisions to make. Those Labour supporters who cannot countenance Leave now have some hard decisions to make but in truth we have been approaching this point since January - as someone once said, nothing really has changed.
To clarify, my resignation comes on a damaging no deal exit.
However, I still expect a deal of some sort will happen
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
A German (CDU politician) once told me that the northern Italians were "just like us" (ie German) but the South was "Africa". The basic rule of European geopolitics is that everyone looks down on people to the South and East of them, with the possible exceptions of us and the Germans, who look down on everyone, us perhaps with less reason.
Bloody funny front cover of The Economist this week btw (can't find a link to it soz).
Is it the one shown on their web site or their Twitter account? Twitter is always a good place to look for plugs of the latest issue of any periodical.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
Boris will build those old maids cycle superhighways to get to church.
Is having gained 10 pounds in a half week of complete self indulgence not depressing enough? I'm off to the gym.
10 pounds! What the hell were you eating: scones and profiteroles all week??
Cocktails, pints, cake, crisps, curries, bacon rolls, a really nice meal in a Sicilian restaurant in Grays Inn road, Chinese, pies, oh it was good. But a price must be paid. No more delays.
Bloody funny front cover of The Economist this week btw (can't find a link to it soz).
Is it the one shown on their web site or their Twitter account? Twitter is always a good place to look for plugs of the latest issue of any periodical.
”My hunch is that he is extremely scared by the idea. Like many of his kind, outward bravado is the bluffer’s mask on a pulsating mass of insecurities.”
Just because Bozo has sacked everyone who used to hate him (when it didn’t matter to their careers), he’s being described as bold. But he isn’t bold, he’s a coward who has just spent a month hiding behind the sofa avoiding the media. If he were brave, he’d be willing to appoint capable intelligent people whether they liked him or not.
If he were bold, he’d be here in the town square meeting and greeting. That he is staying away speaks volumes.
Rawnsley concludes that Bozo is petrified by an election but that it may nevertheless be unavoidable.
But in order to call an election Boris needs to get a 2/3 majority of MPs to vote for one. And that could only be achieved with Labour support. That support would be there of course - Corbyn could hardly refuse after all his talk of wanting an election. But there would be a price - Labour would say that we could not possibly go into an October election with the threat of no deal looming a few days after polling day. And the other opposition parties, and the Tory awkward squad, would agree with that. It is, after all, a very reasonable stance.
So If Boris wanted his election he would be forced to go cap in hand to the EU and seek a further delay to A50, the length of which would be dictated by Labour and the EU. His do or die pledge to leave on 31 October would thus be nullified and he would have the worst possible start to his election campaign.
With respect that will not happen
Conservative mps would not support it so the 2/3 majority would evaporate
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got ho has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
The point about Peterborough is that the BXP cost the Tories the seat.
And lost.
Of course - they will never win many seats, maybe none at all. But they can be incredibly destructive nevertheless. That’s why Johnson has decided to turn the Tories into BXP.
Into a party that has its supporters but consistently loses? I think that he is smarter than that.
Most Tory members voted BXP in May. There is no difference between the two parties - unless we leave with a deal. And that’s where the betrayal will kick in.
Most Tory voters voted BXP in May however the switch to the BXP came when May extending Article 50 to keep us in the EU, it is not the Withdrawal Agreement as such which so annoyed Tory Leavers (though they would like to replace the backstop with a technical solution) but staying in the EU
The loons won’t even take responsibility for the government they’ve been crying out for. It’s absolutely always, under every circumstance, someone else’s fault!
There’s a whole load of no value in those markets!
The Sky programming begins 100 minutes before the race start, at which point we might have a better idea of what the weather’s going to do. Also, confirmation of Leclerc’s starting position - he qualified 10th but may have to drop to the back if his car needs repairs.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
Brexit never will be "delivered". There will be a state of permanent negotiation, Deal or no. Negotiation here means the EU making a demand and the UK either quickly saying Yes or getting into a debilitating argument about it. One example of the hundreds that will come up is that the EU will demand access to UK fishing on essentially current terms. This is a high priority item for several EU countries.
Plenty of scope for Farage, I think.
I have always said that we will never have a final deal with the EU, just as Switzerland hasn't. And there will always be room for moaning. But Farage and his cohorts have never won a Westminster seat (they held onto ones they were gifted, briefly). They are way behind the Greens in terms of Parliamentary success. Look at Peterborough. That really should have been a walk in the park for them.
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
With perhaps a few more old maids cycling to holy communion.
Don't get me started on cyclists. Or religion. Or the thick end of £50bn of spending commitments, for that matter.
Boris will build those old maids cycle superhighways to get to church.
Is having gained 10 pounds in a half week of complete self indulgence not depressing enough? I'm off to the gym.
And how did you find the experience of life as a pate goose?
The loons won’t even take responsibility for the government they’ve been crying out for. It’s absolutely always, under every circumstance, someone else’s fault!
Sir Christopher was our former Ambassador to the USA, hardly a loon
It's a poor attempt at gaslighting. He assumes that the only people who abhor Johnson are "diehard Remainers" and wants them to feel responsible for him.
We should be forever grateful to O’Mara for ridding British politics of Clegg, whose signature achievement was taking the Liberal Democrats from 56 seats to 8, wiping out Ashdown and Kennedy’s years of work.
With that in mind, I’m prepared to cut the guy a bit of slack
”My hunch is that he is extremely scared by the idea. Like many of his kind, outward bravado is the bluffer’s mask on a pulsating mass of insecurities.”
Just because Bozo has sacked everyone who used to hate him (when it didn’t matter to their careers), he’s being described as bold. But he isn’t bold, he’s a coward who has just spent a month hiding behind the sofa avoiding the media. If he were brave, he’d be willing to appoint capable intelligent people whether they liked him or not.
If he were bold, he’d be here in the town square meeting and greeting. That he is staying away speaks volumes.
Rawnsley concludes that Bozo is petrified by an election but that it may nevertheless be unavoidable.
But in order to call an election Boris needs to get a 2/3 majority of MPs to vote for one. And that could only be achieved with Labour support. That support would be there of course - Corbyn could hardly refuse after all his talk of wanting an election. But there would be a price - Labour would say that we could not possibly go into an October election with the threat of no deal looming a few days after polling day. And the other opposition parties, and the Tory awkward squad, would agree with that. It is, after all, a very reasonable stance.
So If Boris wanted his election he would be forced to go cap in hand to the EU and seek a further delay to A50, the length of which would be dictated by Labour and the EU. His do or die pledge to leave on 31 October would thus be nullified and he would have the worst possible start to his election campaign.
With respect that will not happen
Conservative mps would not support it so the 2/3 majority would evaporate
So how would we get an election then?
It would be unconditional, ie 2/3 majority vote unconditionally for it
It should be remembered that the Callaghan government fell because the PM ordered a terminally ill MP, Alfred Broughton, *not* to travel to Westminster (the fear was that the journey itself from Yorkshire might kill him - Broughton died five days later). Also, when the Labour whips requested a pair for Broughton, the Tory Chief Whip accurately replied that pairing was never a convention for confidence motions but then offered to abstain himself, believing that he had offered a commitment to his opposite number. This offer to commit career suicide was then refused by Labour. Nobler days.
Yes, it's an inspiring and thought-provoking case. I like to think that if I'd been Broughton I'd have defied the non-whip and insisted on voting - what a way to go out, unerringly defiant to the end. But...when I actually thought I had a terminal illness (wrong diagnosis, as it turned out), I found I no longer gave a hoot about politics - no longer my problem, etc. It was rather a nasty revelation for my self-image as a noble champion of the people type.
Caught a bit of Dad's Army yesterday, by accident but ended up being sucked in. Not by the plot, silly and full of holes, but by the characters, Mainwaring, Wilson, Jones, Frazer etc. If you park the obvious concern over the outdated mores and the lack of diversity they are highly watchable. And it struck me that nobody has ever, at least not to my knowledge, speculated as to how each of them would have voted in the 2016 Referendum, ceteris paribus. So I decided to rectify this and I spent a 'very' (sorry Jacob) pleasant few minutes doing the exercise. Will not go through all the names (save to say that Mainwaring was passionate Leave and Wilson was prevaricating until polling day) but the result was nothing like 52/48 or 48/52. It was a Leave Landslide. And I do mean LANDSLIDE. Make of this what you will. Says something profound and important about Brexit? Or signifies absolutely nothing and thus a complete waste of time?
Just a little YouGov reminder - the one party’s result the firm got wrong beyond the margin of error in the Euros was BXP. It could be that the Tories have a 10 point lead or it could be that YouGov still hasn’t resolved that sampling issue.
Yougov had the LDs and Labour almost spot on though, unlike other pollsters bar Mori
The game of bluff, counter-bluff and poker goes on as the UK keeps raising the rhetorical stakes in the hope the EU will blink but the EU haven't done so yet. If or when we exit without a WA, Boris will doubtless wrap himself in the Union Jack and blame the perfidious Europeans for our present woes - oddly enough, just like May did.
Boris is exactly the sort of pathological liar who will profit while burnishing the great national grievance in the chaos of no deal. For him it really is a case of "The Worse, the better". As Lenin said and he was right about everything.
To clarify, my resignation comes on a damaging no deal exit.
However, I still expect a deal of some sort will happen
So this is the "poker" strategy. Keep raising the stakes for a No Deal (as Gove has today) in the hope the EU will fold and a new round of negotiations begin.
The problem will only come if the EU thinks the UK is bluffing and will revoke or ask for a further extension rather than leave without a Deal on 31/10.
They might well think Johnson is bluffing and a lot of what he has said since Wednesday is rhetoric aimed at boosting the Conservative vote and when push comes to shove (and he has seen the forecasts of the impact of a disorganised Brexit and he knows what it would be like) he will back away and re-submit the WA hoping the presence of the cliff edge will finally get it through the Commons.
The problem for Johnson is he has climbed on the tiger of leaving come what may on 31/10. He has called for it, a significant part of his party and TBP seem to want it whatever the consequences. He knows what the consequences are likely to be and is going to overtly (and covertly) prepare the economy for the shock.
Fascinating to see the poll variation last evening. A 10-point jump for the Conservatives with Deltapoll is just 3 points with ComRes. The movement seems to be intra rather than inter bloc at this time.
Of the four polls last night, three have the Con-TBP bloc at 44% and one has 45%.The Lab-LD-Green bloc is 50% with ComRes and 49% with Opinium and similar (I suspect) with the others.
As is often the case, it's not a question of how much has changed but how little.
Yougov though gives the Tories a majority of 66 and sees Emily Thornberry lose her seat to the LDs
While being more representative is in general a good thing, we are a bit fetishistic about it. Its not the be all and end all. You get the old joke that we should make sure we get a certain number of racists, idiots and so on if bring representative is the main thing that matters.
Of course we tend to get plenty of idiots and racists in there anyway thanks to sterling work on representation from the parties, but it's like how some think all women short lists are necessary and great and others think the aim is good but selecting on the basis of one criteria is not.
That is, the issue of making the job more accessible for others is not terrible in itself, it's not simply a question of people toughening up, but what sort of change or reasonable accommodation is, well, reasonable.
There are undoubtedly people with mental health and physical health concerns who are and can be good MPs, and things that could be done to make it less of a struggle for them to serve.
But how far can and should measures go? How much should we work to improve representation? It will always be and should remain a demanding job, a public service which will not be possible for many people even of perfect health to do, or not be something they wish to do due to the cost on their lives, on privacy, on family.
I dont have complete answers to these issues, but I am wary that people talk about accommodation in the name of representation and focus on that to the exclusion of all else.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
I didn’t like to say ......It is quite lonely enough fighting a rearguard action for proper coffee and pizza. If I have to add pasta - and that peculiar British abomination- “spag bol” - to the list, I’d be doing little else.
Philip Hammond and David Gauke are in talks with millionaire donors and lining up Rory Stewart to lead a 'Stop No Deal Brexit' campaign similar to the 'People's Vote' campaign
Caught a bit of Dad's Army yesterday, by accident but ended up being sucked in. Not by the plot, silly and full of holes, but by the characters, Mainwaring, Wilson, Jones, Frazer etc. If you park the obvious concern over the outdated mores and the lack of diversity they are highly watchable. And it struck me that nobody has ever, at least not to my knowledge, speculated as to how each of them would have voted in the 2016 Referendum, ceteris paribus. So I decided to rectify this and I spent a 'very' (sorry Jacob) pleasant few minutes doing the exercise. Will not go through all the names (save to say that Mainwaring was passionate Leave and Wilson was prevaricating until polling day) but the result was nothing like 52/48 or 48/52. It was a Leave Landslide. And I do mean LANDSLIDE. Make of this what you will. Says something profound and important about Brexit? Or signifies absolutely nothing and thus a complete waste of time?
I have Mainwaring Leaver, Jones Leaver, Frazer Leaver, Hodges Leaver, Vicar Leaver, Verger Leaver.
The loons won’t even take responsibility for the government they’ve been crying out for. It’s absolutely always, under every circumstance, someone else’s fault!
It wouldn't be so bad if it were recognised multiple sides are to blame. Even hyufd was criticising Baker and co for their obdurateness.
And I know they have junked it again and never liked it, but Boris voted for the backstop, as did JRM and a majority of the ERG - so it clearly is not unratifiable in their eyes. They were content it be ratified.
"after a good debate for Harris and a poor one for Biden, for instance, Harris supporters may be more likely to respond to polls and Biden ones less so."
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
A German (CDU politician) once told me that the northern Italians were "just like us" (ie German) but the South was "Africa". The basic rule of European geopolitics is that everyone looks down on people to the South and East of them, with the possible exceptions of us and the Germans, who look down on everyone, us perhaps with less reason.
Given the level of corruption in the North of Italy the “mani pulite” investigation uncovered, that German politician might want to rethink his claim that northern Italians are just like Germans. Or perhaps he was telling us something about Germans.
Judging by their banks and the number of undeclared accounts in Luxembourg, Lichtenstein and Switzerland which oh-so-respectable Germans have, they are rather more like the southerners they claim to despise.
So this is the "poker" strategy. Keep raising the stakes for a No Deal (as Gove has today) in the hope the EU will fold and a new round of negotiations begin.
Rawnsley, as well as having Great Hair, makes an interesting point in the article linked above. Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever? Especially when most of them continue to think that no deal is a bluff, because they believe Britain’s parliament won’t allow it?
The problem will only come if the EU thinks the UK is bluffing and will revoke or ask for a further extension rather than leave without a Deal on 31/10
That's only part of the problem. The other parts are:
1) Many member states probably think even if the British crash out they'll be back later, and the deal they'll have to accept will be more advantageous to the EU side than the backstop, which granted a lot of market access on exceedingly generous terms
2) The deal the British would currently accept is probably worse for most member states than No Deal. The whole idea is to have lots access to EU markets without being subject to the rules, and then cut taxes and environmental and labour protections to undercut EU-based companies. However the EU side don't want to do this, because their brains aren't made off cornflakes
It should be remembered that the Callaghan government fell because the PM ordered a terminally ill MP, Alfred Broughton, *not* to travel to Westminster (the fear was that the journey itself from Yorkshire might kill him - Broughton died five days later). Also, when the Labour whips requested a pair for Broughton, the Tory Chief Whip accurately replied that pairing was never a convention for confidence motions but then offered to abstain himself, believing that he had offered a commitment to his opposite number. This offer to commit career suicide was then refused by Labour. Nobler days.
Yes, it's an inspiring and thought-provoking case. I like to think that if I'd been Broughton I'd have defied the non-whip and insisted on voting - what a way to go out, unerringly defiant to the end. But...when I actually thought I had a terminal illness (wrong diagnosis, as it turned out), I found I no longer gave a hoot about politics - no longer my problem, etc. It was rather a nasty revelation for my self-image as a noble champion of the people type.
Similar experience here. My year battling cancer totally transformed my life. Especially during the diagnosis stage you radically reassess absolutely everything. But funnily enough, politics was one of the few aspects of my life that remained a constant. The difference with you Nick is probably because I was only under the misapprehension that it was terminal for a few days. Still a horrific experience: staring into the abyss.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
I didn’t like to say ......It is quite lonely enough fighting a rearguard action for proper coffee and pizza. If I have to add pasta - and that peculiar British abomination- “spag bol” - to the list, I’d be doing little else.
I get annoyed with so called "authentic" Italian restaurants in the UK that only have pasta priced as a main course and serve potatoes and veg by default with main courses. Of course I would always eat ragu with tagliatelle.
We should be forever grateful to O’Mara for ridding British politics of Clegg, whose signature achievement was taking the Liberal Democrats from 56 seats to 8, wiping out Ashdown and Kennedy’s years of work.
With that in mind, I’m prepared to cut the guy a bit of slack
Clegg got the LDs in government
Quite. People may not think that was worth it, but the lds tasted power and had influence (just ask all the tories who thought they had too much) and the achievement not ignored even if not felt worth it.
I mean what's their endgame? Unless they win a majority they'll never work in government or with a government ever? If they do well in GE 2019 they might be the kingmakers, and aiding one side or the other will upset people even if they do not go for formal coalition, which they surely wont.
We should be forever grateful to O’Mara for ridding British politics of Clegg, whose signature achievement was taking the Liberal Democrats from 56 seats to 8, wiping out Ashdown and Kennedy’s years of work.
With that in mind, I’m prepared to cut the guy a bit of slack
Clegg got the LDs in government
Quite. People may not think that was worth it, but the lds tasted power and had influence (just ask all the tories who thought they had too much) and the achievement not ignored even if not felt worth it.
I mean what's their endgame? Unless they win a majority they'll never work in government or with a government ever? If they do well in GE 2019 they might be the kingmakers, and aiding one side or the other will upset people even if they do not go for formal coalition, which they surely wont.
Exactly, Clegg was the most powerful Liberal since Lloyd George whatever you think of him.
On current polling the LDs may well be Kingmakers and again will have to pick a side
So this is the "poker" strategy. Keep raising the stakes for a No Deal (as Gove has today) in the hope the EU will fold and a new round of negotiations begin.
Rawnsley, as well as having Great Hair, makes an interesting point in the article linked above. Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever? Especially when most of them continue to think that no deal is a bluff, because they believe Britain’s parliament won’t allow it?
I think the bluff strategy fails because ultimately no one cares about detail anymore it's about being seen to 'win'. We know Boris personally is content to accept the backstop with a grumble but he has promised a win and that's the price. We know the EU are greater at judging things than they bothered to be here, but they've promised no substantive change and politically anything else means conceding a win to the UK.
So neither may prefer no deal, but they dont want to 'lose' even more.
On topic, if you can't put the rest of your life on hold for five years to serve your country, you really have no business being an MP. I for one would be mortified if my MP decided to take 20% of the job off. If I got a job, then said I had more important things to do, but it's OK because here's someone else I know who can do it, I would be justifiably fired.
I personally despise FPTP but its defenders keep bringing up the importance of the link between voter and MP. Allowing people to serve as MPs who do not have a direct mandate from the electorate is a dangerous precedent.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
I didn’t like to say ......It is quite lonely enough fighting a rearguard action for proper coffee and pizza. If I have to add pasta - and that peculiar British abomination- “spag bol” - to the list, I’d be doing little else.
I get annoyed with so called "authentic" Italian restaurants in the UK that only have pasta priced as a main course and serve potatoes and veg by default with main courses. Of course I would always eat ragu with tagliatelle.
Question- does it count as an authentic Italian restaurant if it is run by Italians serving Italian style food, but a menu adjusted for british habits?
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
A German (CDU politician) once told me that the northern Italians were "just like us" (ie German) but the South was "Africa". The basic rule of European geopolitics is that everyone looks down on people to the South and East of them, with the possible exceptions of us and the Germans, who look down on everyone, us perhaps with less reason.
Speaking as a Welshman I can confirm that I look down on people to the South and East of us.
So this is the "poker" strategy. Keep raising the stakes for a No Deal (as Gove has today) in the hope the EU will fold and a new round of negotiations begin.
Rawnsley, as well as having Great Hair, makes an interesting point in the article linked above. Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever? Especially when most of them continue to think that no deal is a bluff, because they believe Britain’s parliament won’t allow it?
I really do believe the EU think the HOC will stop it. There was a French politician on Sophy who said as much
The danger is that this may well be a miscalculation and I just do not see how the default no deal does not happen on the 31st October
I absolutely call out each and every one of the 498 mps who voted for A50 as being utterly clueless over the implication of their actions, as it created no deal enshrined in UK and EU law. On top of that the idiotic ERG took down their brexit, ably assisted by Corbyn and his labour mps and a handfull of equally idiotic conservative remainer mps
I condemn them all for this crisis and only exempt those who did not vote for A50
And I am glad to get that off my chest this wet and cool sunday morning
Caught a bit of Dad's Army yesterday, by accident but ended up being sucked in. Not by the plot, silly and full of holes, but by the characters, Mainwaring, Wilson, Jones, Frazer etc. If you park the obvious concern over the outdated mores and the lack of diversity they are highly watchable. And it struck me that nobody has ever, at least not to my knowledge, speculated as to how each of them would have voted in the 2016 Referendum, ceteris paribus. So I decided to rectify this and I spent a 'very' (sorry Jacob) pleasant few minutes doing the exercise. Will not go through all the names (save to say that Mainwaring was passionate Leave and Wilson was prevaricating until polling day) but the result was nothing like 52/48 or 48/52. It was a Leave Landslide. And I do mean LANDSLIDE. Make of this what you will. Says something profound and important about Brexit? Or signifies absolutely nothing and thus a complete waste of time?
Well, they'd all be very old. Captain Mainwaring was a bank manager and company man, so probably a Remainer. But aren't those who served in the war part of the Remain alliance? Never again?
Dad's Army was perhaps our best-acted sitcom. The two leads could surely have held their own in any drama (both had won BAFTAs elsewhere) and the supporting cast had its moments.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
I didn’t like to say ......It is quite lonely enough fighting a rearguard action for proper coffee and pizza. If I have to add pasta - and that peculiar British abomination- “spag bol” - to the list, I’d be doing little else.
I get annoyed with so called "authentic" Italian restaurants in the UK that only have pasta priced as a main course and serve potatoes and veg by default with main courses. Of course I would always eat ragu with tagliatelle.
In a restaurant in Dublin once - and not so very long ago either - they served pasta al pesto and decided to put new potatoes in with it, not on the side mind, but in the middle of the sauce.
Covering all the bases for us Irish-Italians, I suppose. It was inedible. But amongst my family I have been dining out on that story ever since.
On topic, if you can't put the rest of your life on hold for five years to serve your country, you really have no business being an MP. I for one would be mortified if my MP decided to take 20% of the job off. If I got a job, then said I had more important things to do, but it's OK because here's someone else I know who can do it, I would be justifiably fired.
I personally despise FPTP but its defenders keep bringing up the importance of the link between voter and MP. Allowing people to serve as MPs who do not have a direct mandate from the electorate is a dangerous precedent.
It's one of those issues where the nature of the job is one where we truly expect them to put the service to the country ahead of personal wellbeing. In general we would probably look down on someone who didn't go to their childs wedding so they could work, for example, or whose marriage suffered because they never took the time away the family, but with MPs we give them a measure of power over the lives of 60 million and we do expect that, and more.
Steps have been made to be more reasonable, but when serving the people the people genuinely expect you to personally suffer rather than deprive them if that service.
Caught a bit of Dad's Army yesterday, by accident but ended up being sucked in. Not by the plot, silly and full of holes, but by the characters, Mainwaring, Wilson, Jones, Frazer etc. If you park the obvious concern over the outdated mores and the lack of diversity they are highly watchable. And it struck me that nobody has ever, at least not to my knowledge, speculated as to how each of them would have voted in the 2016 Referendum, ceteris paribus. So I decided to rectify this and I spent a 'very' (sorry Jacob) pleasant few minutes doing the exercise. Will not go through all the names (save to say that Mainwaring was passionate Leave and Wilson was prevaricating until polling day) but the result was nothing like 52/48 or 48/52. It was a Leave Landslide. And I do mean LANDSLIDE. Make of this what you will. Says something profound and important about Brexit? Or signifies absolutely nothing and thus a complete waste of time?
Perhaps stating the bleeding obvious but ur-Leaver identity is stuck around 1942 (and age wise at the wrong end of 'the best is yet to come')?
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
I didn’t like to say ......It is quite lonely enough fighting a rearguard action for proper coffee and pizza. If I have to add pasta - and that peculiar British abomination- “spag bol” - to the list, I’d be doing little else.
I get annoyed with so called "authentic" Italian restaurants in the UK that only have pasta priced as a main course and serve potatoes and veg by default with main courses. Of course I would always eat ragu with tagliatelle.
In a restaurant in Dublin once - and not so very long ago either - they served pasta al pesto and decided to put new potatoes in with it, not on the side mind, but in the middle of the sauce.
Covering all the bases for us Irish-Italians, I suppose. It was inedible. But amongst my family I have been dining out on that story ever since.
I can see how that would indeed be a horror to actual Italians or those of Italian descent as not proper. But how was it actually inedible? How did such a transgression actually impair the taste of 2 good things so much?
Did you see the story a few years ago from NZ where the PM made home made pizza with tinned spaghetti on it?
To misquote Blackadder, the next election will be fought on personalities, not issues. This is because neither leading candidate understands the issues, although they have several of them.
Those of us who vote on the future of the country have a problem.
It should be remembered that the Callaghan government fell because the PM ordered a terminally ill MP, Alfred Broughton, *not* to travel to Westminster (the fear was that the journey itself from Yorkshire might kill him - Broughton died five days later). Also, when the Labour whips requested a pair for Broughton, the Tory Chief Whip accurately replied that pairing was never a convention for confidence motions but then offered to abstain himself, believing that he had offered a commitment to his opposite number. This offer to commit career suicide was then refused by Labour. Nobler days.
Yes, it's an inspiring and thought-provoking case. I like to think that if I'd been Broughton I'd have defied the non-whip and insisted on voting - what a way to go out, unerringly defiant to the end. But...when I actually thought I had a terminal illness (wrong diagnosis, as it turned out), I found I no longer gave a hoot about politics - no longer my problem, etc. It was rather a nasty revelation for my self-image as a noble champion of the people type.
Similar experience here. My year battling cancer totally transformed my life. Especially during the diagnosis stage you radically reassess absolutely everything. But funnily enough, politics was one of the few aspects of my life that remained a constant. The difference with you Nick is probably because I was only under the misapprehension that it was terminal for a few days. Still a horrific experience: staring into the abyss.
I had a similar experience a few years ago when I was told I likely had breast cancer. The time between being told this and final diagnosis when they said no it wasn’t was some of the loneliest of my life because I simply did not want to burden my family with the knowledge. It does make you reassess your priorities. In part, it led to my decision to retire from full-time work. The immediate three years before I retired I had spent a significant amount of time either in hospital or being treated for some condition or other, which was not helped by the stressful life I was leading (and I naturally thrive on adrenaline and crises). There comes a point when you realise this is no way to live and you owe it to your children - if not yourself - to call a halt.
Hope all is well and as far as my weight loss is concerned I have to say it has seen a great improvement in my general health and activity.
I recommend to everyone who is overweight to 'bite the bullet' and shed the kilos (pounds) and be amazed at the results
Morning G, yes I am well. I should take a leaf out if your book and get back into fitness, too sedentary sitting at a desk all day and too much beer, nip it in the bud.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
I didn’t like to say ......It is quite lonely enough fighting a rearguard action for proper coffee and pizza. If I have to add pasta - and that peculiar British abomination- “spag bol” - to the list, I’d be doing little else.
One of my sons once went to a friend's wedding somewhere around Naples (IIRC). He and the rest of the British contingent 'filled their boots' with the antipasto and primo and were then surprised to be faced with the secondi and a generous contorno, which they struggled through, let alone the remainder. They were glad to get to the grappa! He's still in touch with the couple though, fifteen or so years later.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
Agreed, the Commons is going to be presented with deal or no deal. The deal will basically be May's deal and if they are persuaded that no deal is a genuine threat then it may well pass. May herself was never even remotely credible about this which allowed remainers to oppose everything without consequence.
I just don’t see how that works. Anything but No Deal is a gift to Farage.
The threat of Farage is grossly overstated if Brexit is delivered. No doubt there will be moans of servitude etc. Few will pay attention having never got the details. I am reminded of Palmerston's description of the Schleswig-Holstein question "“Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
So let it be with Brexit. Of course if it is not delivered that is a whole other ball game.
I think you significantly under-estimate the appetite for betrayal that exists in England. Given the demonstrable appetite there is for it in Scotland that surprises me!
Maybe we have just learned to ignore their whingeing.
That will keep you sane, to be sure, but politically it works. People like to feel betrayed. Any deal from here will be gold-dust for Farage. On that basis I just don’t see how No Deal is avoidable. The Tories are now the BXP. Any deviation from that and they lose. On that HYUFD is 100% correct.
But will Big G resign?
Immediately after Charlie Falconer.
G has principles , he will be gone seconds after No Deal.
I see that Mrs May has gone on a Cyclefree style holiday in Lake Garda. A beautiful place. Sensible woman.
How soon can we start missing her?!
I was at lake Garda 2 years ago. It was brilliant. Pretty vigorous walking though. Rarely seen such steep hills.
The whole area is beautiful and there are some lovely town to see as well - Bergamo, for instance. Nice wines too.
The one mild disappointment was the food. It was too Germanic and not nearly enough Italian which is my favourite cuisine in the world. Too much sausage, too much pork, too many pickles.
Well, we proper Italians (ie from the South!) do think that the north east corner of Italy is basically German - and historically much of it was part of Austria- Hungary - so it is not surprising that they don’t know how to cook and eat.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
An Italian friend once nearly walked out on me when, in a restaurant in Vicenza, I wanted to order pasta as a main course.
I didn’t like to say ......It is quite lonely enough fighting a rearguard action for proper coffee and pizza. If I have to add pasta - and that peculiar British abomination- “spag bol” - to the list, I’d be doing little else.
I get annoyed with so called "authentic" Italian restaurants in the UK that only have pasta priced as a main course and serve potatoes and veg by default with main courses. Of course I would always eat ragu with tagliatelle.
In a restaurant in Dublin once - and not so very long ago either - they served pasta al pesto and decided to put new potatoes in with it, not on the side mind, but in the middle of the sauce.
Covering all the bases for us Irish-Italians, I suppose. It was inedible. But amongst my family I have been dining out on that story ever since.
Attending a wake in my Scottish home town we adjourned to the pub for lunch - someone ordered Macaroni Cheese and Chips - “Would you like some buttered bread with that?” asked the voluptuous bar maid.
Hope all is well and as far as my weight loss is concerned I have to say it has seen a great improvement in my general health and activity.
I recommend to everyone who is overweight to 'bite the bullet' and shed the kilos (pounds) and be amazed at the results
Morning G, yes I am well. I should take a leaf out if your book and get back into fitness, too sedentary sitting at a desk all day and too much beer, nip it in the bud.
Moderation in all things is good practice but can be difficult at times
Comments
If we are out of the political structures, if we don't have Ministers constantly running off to Brussels to stitch things up behind closed doors, if our politics becomes a bit more parochial and accountable that will do for most folk.
You also shouldn't derive my preferred policies from my current party membership. The relationship runs the other way.
But yes it is difficult to give up membership and a vote although you are right about the party's new direction. As observed also by Peter Oborne on the radio yesterday.
How soon can we start missing her?!
Labour mps must despair
All parties including the Conservatives: see Charlie Elphicke and the other one.
So If Boris wanted his election he would be forced to go cap in hand to the EU and seek a further delay to A50, the length of which would be dictated by Labour and the EU. His do or die pledge to leave on 31 October would thus be nullified and he would have the worst possible start to his election campaign.
Conservative mps would not support it so the 2/3 majority would evaporate
To give some idea of my thinking though, I specifically said that it was to cover an entire parliament (i.e. between elections), so is a cumulative total: it could be a single span or, say, four periods of 3 months for someone undergoing drawn-out medical treatment involving several serious operations.
It was the concept I really wanted to express support for.
Fascinating to see the poll variation last evening. A 10-point jump for the Conservatives with Deltapoll is just 3 points with ComRes. The movement seems to be intra rather than inter bloc at this time.
Of the four polls last night, three have the Con-TBP bloc at 44% and one has 45%.The Lab-LD-Green bloc is 50% with ComRes and 49% with Opinium and similar (I suspect) with the others.
As is often the case, it's not a question of how much has changed but how little.
As long as we have mainstream politicians who adopt a pose of believing in Britain as a great force in the world despite the reality, Farage will be there to exploit the discrepancy. It's not hard to imagine how being outside the EU could create even more fertile ground for him.
Mind you they think we’re basically Africans! United countries, eh?
Still, we have more fun.
Whereas if Boris makes the right noises, the only reason for the Brexit Party to put up canidates is Farage's ego. Not a small issue, but not a coupon .
The difference between the 21st century and earlier centuries is that the influence is spread around many more countries than previously, that is also a good thing and should be celebrated.
Our problems are around our economy not our being a force in the world.
The problem is large swathes of his Party want us to remain - His civil war is as destabilising as the Conservative one but in the Conservative one, the Roundheads have triumphed and driven the Cavaliers to the fringes.
In essence, the can has been kicked once again by both parties. Labour remain marooned in a linguistic morass as Corbyn struggles to say what he doesn't mean and mean what he doesn't say. For the Conservatives and especially for those for whom a No Deal is absolutely, definitely, probably the end, well, the end is in sight.
The game of bluff, counter-bluff and poker goes on as the UK keeps raising the rhetorical stakes in the hope the EU will blink but the EU haven't done so yet. If or when we exit without a WA, Boris will doubtless wrap himself in the Union Jack and blame the perfidious Europeans for our present woes - oddly enough, just like May did.
Those Conservatives who have announced their party loyalty ends with the prospect of a No Deal now have some hard decisions to make. Those Labour supporters who cannot countenance Leave now have some hard decisions to make but in truth we have been approaching this point since January - as someone once said, nothing really has changed.
However, I still expect a deal of some sort will happen
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist
https://www.economist.com
The loons won’t even take responsibility for the government they’ve been crying out for. It’s absolutely always, under every circumstance, someone else’s fault!
The Sky programming begins 100 minutes before the race start, at which point we might have a better idea of what the weather’s going to do. Also, confirmation of Leclerc’s starting position - he qualified 10th but may have to drop to the back if his car needs repairs.
The problem will only come if the EU thinks the UK is bluffing and will revoke or ask for a further extension rather than leave without a Deal on 31/10.
They might well think Johnson is bluffing and a lot of what he has said since Wednesday is rhetoric aimed at boosting the Conservative vote and when push comes to shove (and he has seen the forecasts of the impact of a disorganised Brexit and he knows what it would be like) he will back away and re-submit the WA hoping the presence of the cliff edge will finally get it through the Commons.
The problem for Johnson is he has climbed on the tiger of leaving come what may on 31/10. He has called for it, a significant part of his party and TBP seem to want it whatever the consequences. He knows what the consequences are likely to be and is going to overtly (and covertly) prepare the economy for the shock.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=21&LIB=20&Brexit=13&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Of course we tend to get plenty of idiots and racists in there anyway thanks to sterling work on representation from the parties, but it's like how some think all women short lists are necessary and great and others think the aim is good but selecting on the basis of one criteria is not.
That is, the issue of making the job more accessible for others is not terrible in itself, it's not simply a question of people toughening up, but what sort of change or reasonable accommodation is, well, reasonable.
There are undoubtedly people with mental health and physical health concerns who are and can be good MPs, and things that could be done to make it less of a struggle for them to serve.
But how far can and should measures go? How much should we work to improve representation? It will always be and should remain a demanding job, a public service which will not be possible for many people even of perfect health to do, or not be something they wish to do due to the cost on their lives, on privacy, on family.
I dont have complete answers to these issues, but I am wary that people talk about accommodation in the name of representation and focus on that to the exclusion of all else.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/philip-hammond-backs-rory-stewart-to-lead-charge-against-no-deal-brexit-500xp7dg9?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2ukWa1eJXOc1dz3zqf7hfViUJHOUD6P-0pxKOtFyiQ76gtGoLlqFMxO2k#Echobox=1564294506
Then Godfrey Remainer, WAlker Remainer.
And Pike and Wilson as toss-ups.
Any differences?
And I know they have junked it again and never liked it, but Boris voted for the backstop, as did JRM and a majority of the ERG - so it clearly is not unratifiable in their eyes. They were content it be ratified.
"after a good debate for Harris and a poor one for Biden, for instance, Harris supporters may be more likely to respond to polls and Biden ones less so."
Judging by their banks and the number of undeclared accounts in Luxembourg, Lichtenstein and Switzerland which oh-so-respectable Germans have, they are rather more like the southerners they claim to despise.
Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever? Especially when most of them continue to think that no deal is a bluff, because they believe Britain’s parliament won’t allow it?
1) Many member states probably think even if the British crash out they'll be back later, and the deal they'll have to accept will be more advantageous to the EU side than the backstop, which granted a lot of market access on exceedingly generous terms
2) The deal the British would currently accept is probably worse for most member states than No Deal. The whole idea is to have lots access to EU markets without being subject to the rules, and then cut taxes and environmental and labour protections to undercut EU-based companies. However the EU side don't want to do this, because their brains aren't made off cornflakes
I mean what's their endgame? Unless they win a majority they'll never work in government or with a government ever? If they do well in GE 2019 they might be the kingmakers, and aiding one side or the other will upset people even if they do not go for formal coalition, which they surely wont.
On current polling the LDs may well be Kingmakers and again will have to pick a side
So neither may prefer no deal, but they dont want to 'lose' even more.
I personally despise FPTP but its defenders keep bringing up the importance of the link between voter and MP. Allowing people to serve as MPs who do not have a direct mandate from the electorate is a dangerous precedent.
The danger is that this may well be a miscalculation and I just do not see how the default no deal does not happen on the 31st October
I absolutely call out each and every one of the 498 mps who voted for A50 as being utterly clueless over the implication of their actions, as it created no deal enshrined in UK and EU law. On top of that the idiotic ERG took down their brexit, ably assisted by Corbyn and his labour mps and a handfull of equally idiotic conservative remainer mps
I condemn them all for this crisis and only exempt those who did not vote for A50
And I am glad to get that off my chest this wet and cool sunday morning
Dad's Army was perhaps our best-acted sitcom. The two leads could surely have held their own in any drama (both had won BAFTAs elsewhere) and the supporting cast had its moments.
Covering all the bases for us Irish-Italians, I suppose. It was inedible. But amongst my family I have been dining out on that story ever since.
Steps have been made to be more reasonable, but when serving the people the people genuinely expect you to personally suffer rather than deprive them if that service.
Did you see the story a few years ago from NZ where the PM made home made pizza with tinned spaghetti on it?
I had a similar experience a few years ago when I was told I likely had breast cancer. The time between being told this and final diagnosis when they said no it wasn’t was some of the loneliest of my life because I simply did not want to burden my family with the knowledge. It does make you reassess your priorities. In part, it led to my decision to retire from full-time work. The immediate three years before I retired I had spent a significant amount of time either in hospital or being treated for some condition or other, which was not helped by the stressful life I was leading (and I naturally thrive on adrenaline and crises). There comes a point when you realise this is no way to live and you owe it to your children - if not yourself - to call a halt.
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1155391362818347009?s=21
He's still in touch with the couple though, fifteen or so years later.