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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nate Silver on UK politics

SystemSystem Posts: 12,185
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nate Silver on UK politics

“And does Labour have a charismatic leader?” His prediction, based only on the fact that “you have had a rough several years economically”, is that David Cameron will not be re-elected.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    Best advice the experienced Blairites could give Cerise is how he can help the bankstas create a gigantic ten-year credit bubble which he can surf on top of until it bursts and ****s the world up.

    Trouble is those bubbles are generally on a 70-year cycle so he better eat up all his greens.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Interesting to hear Nate on this. To dissent: I know it's a minority view, but I think the economy is going to be a goalless draw in 2015.

    On the one hand, people aren't going to feel the Government has fixed it - there will be rival sets of stats but the bottom line is that people won't feel things are really much better. On the other hand, they aren't going to be convinced that Labour has a brilliant plan either, and it's rather obvious that it's to a large degree an international problem anyway. The efforts of both sides to portray their rivals as bonkers will fail.

    So the economy will be seen as important but not decisive for voting intention. What will be decisive is which parties people feel are most in touch with them - a nebulous battleground but one on which Cameron and Osborne are particularly weak.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2013
    YouGov

    App -29

    Cons VI: Men -9; Women -6
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Nate is only as good as his polling models. This is speculation and comment.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Labour needs to explain what their version of austerity looks like fairly soon. To just pop it out of the bag a few weeks before an election would be ridiculous, as would pretending that a Milliband/Balls govt would not have to implement austerity.

    It took years of New Labour preparation to convince the public that they would run sound finances in 1997. Having Brown shred that reputation makes the job much harder, so it needs to be a central theme of their message for the next two years.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2013
    Tribute to Maggie from all Tories on PB.(It comes at the end)


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NopAq6tUHVk
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nate Silver is awesome at US politics, but his attempt to model the British election was fairly rubbish. He tried to come up with his own replacement for UNS by doing a bunch of things that have been tried before in Britain and failed, and didn't seem to know about their history of failure.

    I think the lesson is that what he's doing in the US isn't just number-crunching. He can do sensible things with the numbers because his understanding of the political forces at work is very good, too.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Oh, Maggie, Maggie May, they've taken her away,
    She's never going to parliament anymore
    For she gave her life for others, while doing down the brothers,
    And now she's in St. Pauls, where she'l lay.

    My Ode to Maggie; with a nod to that old song.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2013
    OT

    Congrats to Cardiff on finally getting promoted, and big win for Leicester to be back in the playoffs.

    The Championship is crazy league this year. It looks as if 70 points will make the playoffs and low fifties will get relegated. Lots of poor football everywhere, with all the playoff teams on bad runs. Leicester never do it the easy way. Final match against Forest away could be a massive game for both teams.

    The moral is, even a poor performer can win when the opposition is also crap. The next election is still up for grabs.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @tim

    Raisin d'être? You're talking nuts.

    Dave's love affiar with the ladies continues in today's YouGov.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,454
    tim said:

    What we do know is that the deficit reduction plan which was the coalitions raisin d'être will have totally failed.
    How that is framed by the three/four parties will be the key.

    @ tim

    "raisin d'être" - is that what winemakers have ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Sorry but I think Nate is trying to apply US politics to the UK - and now we're wrestling with 4 parties vying for votes using FPTP - this is totally different to the Red/Blue contests in the States.

    I'm sure there are equally good election predictors of PR systems too - but being good in one field or an expert on the national politics of one country doesn't transfer to another. I'd liken it to being great on grass, but poorer on clay.

    Nice to see a thread that isn't about The Funeral - I will tune in for a few mins just to get a feel for the crowds lining the route, but otherwise I think its a bit weird to watch someone's funeral on TV.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    The next unemployment and GDP figures (both due next Wednesday?) will help frame the debate over the summer. The blues need these two numbers going in the right direction.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2013
    @Plato

    "Sorry but I think Nate is trying to apply US politics to the UK - and now we're wrestling with 4 parties vying for votes using FPTP - this is totally different to the Red/Blue contests in the States."

    I absolutely agree. I actually read the article in the Times and it was full of tosh and whimsical prophecies. I'm sure Nate is very good at elephant v donkey politics in the US but will need a lot more time here to understand UK politics.

    Still he is probably right that Cammo won't be re-elected.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is not a spoof

    RT @labourpress: Join our voluntary press regulator or we will make you, Harman tells newspapers http://t.co/wb8H9O7dJS
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Good Margaret all.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Agree with EiT - these are more 'guesses' than 'predictions'. With the IMF predicting (guessing?) the UK to be the strongest growing (along with Germany) large EU economy in 2014, things may start to turn the corner for the government. And this 'bottom of the range' YouGov will not have steadied Labour nerves - tho in fairness they are a lot less prone to panic than the Tories.

    Another classic Mail headline:

    I was acting in self-defence, says drunken fan on disabled benefits who threw punch at a police horse

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2310139/I-acting-self-defence-says-drunken-fan-disabled-benefits-threw-punch-police-horse.html#ixzz2QhQYIYUl
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,454
    tim said:

    GEORGE Bush Snr turned down Barack Obama’s personal plea to represent the US at Lady Thatcher’s funeral, The Sun can reveal.
    America’s 41st president is staying at home to help his son — the 43rd president — open his presidential library.



    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4891182/george-bush-snr-refuses-to-attend-lady-thatcher-funeral.html#ixzz2QhQdBHlo


    I guess that might shut the Obama haters up.

    A Clinton in hand is worth two in the Bush
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,454
    Plato said:

    This is not a spoof

    RT @labourpress: Join our voluntary press regulator or we will make you, Harman tells newspapers http://t.co/wb8H9O7dJS

    Ciunting chickens before they are hatched she might well live to regret it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @OliverCooper: If you ever find yourself protesting at someone's funeral, take a look at the Westboro Baptist Church nuts and ask: "Is that me?" #Thatcher
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    Four/Five way voting splits in US are unheard of, so even if Silver turns out to be right it won't be anything more than a lucky call.

    Am on Bryher in the Isles of Scilly today for my cousin's wedding. Stunning, absolutely stunning. I can hear big Atlantic waves crashing against the rocks just a few yards away. There's a heavy mist. Proper weather. I do love this country!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,454

    Four/Five way voting splits in US are unheard of, so even if Silver turns out to be right it won't be anything more than a lucky call.

    Am on Bryher in the Isles of Scilly today for my cousin's wedding. Stunning, absolutely stunning. I can hear big Atlantic waves crashing against the rocks just a few yards away. There's a heavy mist. Proper weather. I do love this country!!

    The Scillys are fantastic, I spent a week on Tresco and it was bliss.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    GEORGE Bush Snr turned down Barack Obama’s personal plea to represent the US at Lady Thatcher’s funeral, The Sun can reveal.

    Snr (age 88) is also pretty much wheelchair bound these days, so may not have wanted to either face the trek in St Paul's or appear in his wheelchair in front of the cameras.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2013
    @Foxy

    "Labour needs to explain what their version of austerity looks like fairly soon."

    For some of us this coalition government has been good. The stock market has soared and everything else has remained pretty much unchanged. So we feel richer.

    Unfortunately for the Tories this isn't most people's experience. Most are having a harder time than they've had for decades.

    Labour's time for the most part is remembered as a time of plenty when people-particularly the young-could walk in and out of jobs and where our city centres were places of plenty with cafes and shops overflowing.

    This is what people see as labour's legacy and people want it again. This is why I'm convinced Labour will win and win well. It's human nature

    Tories=Grimsby on a cold Tuesday. Labour=Monaco every day of the week
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    O/T and a bit cynical but I think London has had a good few years of Global exposure that can only be good for tourism in the capital. Queen's Diamond, Olympics, Maggies Funeral. What next I wonder?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    tim said:

    GEORGE Bush Snr turned down Barack Obama’s personal plea to represent the US at Lady Thatcher’s funeral, The Sun can reveal.

    Snr (age 88) is also pretty much wheelchair bound these days, so may not have wanted to either face the trek in St Paul's or appear in his wheelchair in front of the cameras.

    Apparently its also the opening of the GB Snr library today so he was already booked - he's apparently in frail health these days too.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,454
    Roger said:


    @Foxy

    "Labour needs to explain what their version of austerity looks like fairly soon."

    For some of us this coalition government has been good. The stock market has soared and everything else has remained pretty much unchanged. So we feel richer.

    Unfortunately for the Tories this isn't most people's experience. Most are having a harder time than they've had for decades.

    Labour's time for the most part is remembered as a time of plenty when people-particularly the young-could walk in and out of jobs and where our city centres were places of plenty with cafes and shops overflowing.

    This is what people see as labour's legacy whatever Tories say and people want it again. This is why I'm convinced Labour will win and win well. It's human nature

    Tories=Grimsby on a cold Tuesday. Labour=Monaco every day of the week

    Roger

    Grimsby = Labour fiefdom Monaco = ultra blue territory

    I'm entering you for the bad marketing award.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    I think that Nick's assumption that the economy will be a scoreless draw at the next election is interesting but very optimistic from Labour's point of view.

    It is true that the economy's performance over the preceding 5 years will have been less than stellar although if the current forecasts are right (and that has surely got to happen sometime) and Britain is set to outperform France and Germany over the next 2 years this will give the goverment something to shout about.

    Where I think Labour have a problem is that they are not offering a sensible alternative. The "too far, too fast" line is now hopelessly confused with the "well the cuts are increasing expenditure" line. If the latter were true would that be a good thing? Why is the economy not doing better then?

    The economy is still going to be peoples' number one concern and by a distance. To change government they need to have a choice. Labour have some serious work to do in making one. Brown was a total disaster but his efforts to look credible, sound, responsible etc in 1995-7 were immense. Clarke was a brilliant chancellor but people had a choice and they took it. Will Balls be able to do the same? Not so far. At the moment their effort looks more like 1992.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    OGH tweets "YouGov finds that Ukip voters think immigration is more important issue than the economy."

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BICD3hJCYAA821A.jpg:large

    Bit of hyperbole there as I think 'as important' as economy is supported by the numbers (77 & 79 respectively)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667

    Four/Five way voting splits in US are unheard of, so even if Silver turns out to be right it won't be anything more than a lucky call.

    Am on Bryher in the Isles of Scilly today for my cousin's wedding. Stunning, absolutely stunning. I can hear big Atlantic waves crashing against the rocks just a few yards away. There's a heavy mist. Proper weather. I do love this country!!

    The Scillys are fantastic, I spent a week on Tresco and it was bliss.

    If I go outside and walk up the hill I can see Tresco - or could if it wasn't so foggy! The Scillies are the dogs, that's for sure. I used to come here when I was a kid: 10 hours in the car to Penzance, then three hours puking on the boat. Yesterday was the first time I have ever flown. It's much nicer!

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    Bizarre. The Dean is struggling to accept she was *human* ?

    St Paul's Dean: Even if I may find her hard to like nonetheless I have to accept she's one of us. She's a human person
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It's also brilliant advertising for his own business - not many small businessmen get national newspaper coverage!

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,454

    Four/Five way voting splits in US are unheard of, so even if Silver turns out to be right it won't be anything more than a lucky call.

    Am on Bryher in the Isles of Scilly today for my cousin's wedding. Stunning, absolutely stunning. I can hear big Atlantic waves crashing against the rocks just a few yards away. There's a heavy mist. Proper weather. I do love this country!!

    The Scillys are fantastic, I spent a week on Tresco and it was bliss.

    If I go outside and walk up the hill I can see Tresco - or could if it wasn't so foggy! The Scillies are the dogs, that's for sure. I used to come here when I was a kid: 10 hours in the car to Penzance, then three hours puking on the boat. Yesterday was the first time I have ever flown. It's much nicer!

    There used to be a helicopter service from Cornwall but I think that' stopped now. If you have time do the gardens in Tresco.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,568
    Wife and I are getting some odd pension payments this year. Not all in this month, but appears that the tax is either pretty well the same as last year or has increased. If that's a general experience among pensioners there are going to be some pretty cross oldies in a few weeks time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2013
    @Alanbrooke. "I'm entering you for the bad marketing award."

    Thank you......I'd like to thank my parents for making me the way I am.....

    ...and my daughter and her hedonistic friends for showing me where their black and white view of politics is leading them
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nate Silver's book is fantastic, and a must-read for any gambler.

    Nate Silver's saloon bar observations are of much less interest. But since he didn't exactly say what the Times said he said, I'll give him a bit of a break here.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Plato said:

    Bizarre. The Dean is struggling to accept she was *human* ?

    St Paul's Dean: Even if I may find her hard to like nonetheless I have to accept she's one of us. She's a human person

    St Pauls needs a complete cleanout. It is no more than the Labour Party at prayer.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Following OGH tweet - what VI think of issues relative to OA (Country/You/Your Family)

    Economy:
    Con: +6/=
    Lab: +1/+5
    LibD: =/-1
    UKIP: -1/-5

    Immigration/Asylum:
    Con: +10/+6
    Lab: -10/-4
    LibD: -14/-12
    UKIP: +24/+26

    The UKIP numbers are down from the last poll, when the immigration numbers were +35/+32
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    @CarlottaVanceStill undermines their claims to be "Libertarian" or "Free Market" in any known senses of the word.

    I think we've established there is a bit of a disconnect between what UKIP says it wants and what UKIP voters say they want....

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just listening to radio 5 and getting rather annoyed with the dim presenters -

    "She was a particularly divisive figure in Scotland, where you'll struggle to find anybody with a good thing to say about her"

    I'd say that makes her a particularly unifying figure in Scotland. Bloody BBC idiots.
  • Roger said:

    @Foxy

    "Tories=Grimsby on a cold Tuesday. Labour=Monaco every day of the week

    Labour=

    1. Monaco for a week on the credit card,

    2. Grimsby for the other 51 weeks of the year [with the EUSSR controlling the fishing "rights"]

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Let's hope for a dignified peaceful funeral later this morning (I think it will be).

    Do we know how many will line the route? 1million?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BenM said:

    Let's hope for a dignified peaceful funeral later this morning (I think it will be).

    Do we know how many will line the route? 1million?

    A million in person, Ben, a billion in their hearts.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Roger said:

    @Foxy

    "Tories=Grimsby on a cold Tuesday. Labour=Monaco every day of the week

    Labour=

    1. Monaco for a week on the credit card,

    2. Grimsby for the other 51 weeks of the year [with the EUSSR controlling the fishing "rights"]

    Poor old Grimsby! But it is every bit as bad as its name suggests. Well, Cleethorpes is (where the football ground is). And I'm not just saying that because they knocked my beloved Dartford FC out of the FA Trophy semi-finals.

    Anyway - Ugh.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2013
    Roger said:

    @Foxy

    "Labour needs to explain what their version of austerity looks like fairly soon."

    For some of us this coalition government has been good. The stock market has soared and everything else has remained pretty much unchanged. So we feel richer.

    Unfortunately for the Tories this isn't most people's experience. Most are having a harder time than they've had for decades.

    Labour's time for the most part is remembered as a time of plenty when people-particularly the young-could walk in and out of jobs and where our city centres were places of plenty with cafes and shops overflowing.

    This is what people see as labour's legacy and people want it again. This is why I'm convinced Labour will win and win well. It's human nature

    Tories=Grimsby on a cold Tuesday. Labour=Monaco every day of the week

    I think that you have your rose tinteds on. Youth unemployment and the problem of Neets were on the rise from about 2003, roughly coinciding with the minimum wage and East European migrants to do starter jobs.

    I am not saying that the voters want austerity, who does? What I am saying is that if Labour campaign by pretending that it will be wine and roses instantly, then the campaign risks being exposed as ridiculous. If they gain power by pretending they can spend their way out of austerity they will experience a Hollande type crash in the economy and a collapse in the polls.

    They do not need to publish a manifesto, but do need to be clear that there will be austerity, gaining power on false pretences could destroy them. To his credit NP seems to accept this, but I am not convinced that Balls does.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Excellent Simon Jenkins today.

    And an observation about Thatcher - a positive one - I'm in every agreement with:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/16/mass-hysteria-boston-terrorists-greatest-weapon
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Wife and I are getting some odd pension payments this
    year. Not all in this month, but appears that the tax is either pretty well the same as last year or has increased. If that's a general experience among pensioners there are going to be some pretty cross oldies in a few weeks time.

    State pensions increased from April 4th. However personal tax allowances did not increase for pensioners. See:http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/rates/it.htm



  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    @foxinsoxuk

    Austerity is the policy causing the damage.

    As Ashcroft warned - spelling out the alternative, the correct path, is a hard sell. But that doesn't mean caving in to Tory over-simplicities and wrongheadedness or "accepting" austerity.

    There are lots of examples in life where things are true that don't make intuitive sense. Science is stuffed full of them.

    Macro economics is another. Destroying the facile Tory myth equating government budgets to that of a household is a necessity or else we'll never get out of this hole.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    @Ben.


    "Do we know how many will line the route? 1million?"

    The ramping has started already
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I expect those who condemned Osborne's driver for parking in a disabled space will be equally vituperative about Miliband's driver parking on a double yellow line;

    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/SLIDESHOW-Ed-Miliband-hits-campaign-trail-in-Cambridge-20130415160716.htm
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Dave on R4 strangely trying to give the impression he lived with his parents when Thatcher came to power.
    The scars are deep.

    This is politicalbetting.com, tim. You shouldn' t be harping upon the past.

    You should be scanning the faces lined up along the procession route looking for a 14 year old future Prime Minister.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    BenM said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    Austerity is the policy causing the damage.

    As Ashcroft warned - spelling out the alternative, the correct path, is a hard sell. But that doesn't mean caving in to Tory over-simplicities and wrongheadedness or "accepting" austerity.

    There are lots of examples in life where things are true that don't make intuitive sense. Science is stuffed full of them.

    Macro economics is another. Destroying the facile Tory myth equating government budgets to that of a household is a necessity or else we'll never get out of this hole.

    BenM said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    Austerity is the policy causing the damage.

    As Ashcroft warned - spelling out the alternative, the correct path, is a hard sell. But that doesn't mean caving in to Tory over-simplicities and wrongheadedness or "accepting" austerity.

    There are lots of examples in life where things are true that don't make intuitive sense. Science is stuffed full of them.

    Macro economics is another. Destroying the facile Tory myth equating government budgets to that of a household is a necessity or else we'll never get out of this hole.

    I think that there are a lot of Labour supporters who are like the crocodile - in de Nile.

    The only question is whether the rude awakening is before or after the election.

    off to work now.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    @tim "You seem to think Osborne has (b) isn't proposing increased debt"

    I don't see anything in the post you seem to be replying to that says he doesn't wasn't think that anyone isn't won't didn't propose increased debt. As anyone with an understanding of the difference between debt and deficit knows, didn't wasn't isn't increasing debt isn't hasn't not been an option until the deficit weren't not having been paid off.

    I hope that's as clear as your post ;)
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    The Tories published a poster in 2010 that had a massive arrow intended to demonstrate all the organisations that supported their utterly foolish Austerity plan as opposed to those supporting Labour's now proven-to-be correct opposition to it.

    I can't find it anywhere.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2013
    @Cyclefree

    "I don't care what the Dean's political views are but at a funeral he should remember that he should be providing comfort to the bereaved and commending the soul of the departed to God not giving his views on her policies."

    Perhaps if she'd chosen to have a more humble affair like Clement Atlee she could have had a minister of her choosing and not one supplied by the Cathedral and what's more if her opinion of herself was such that she could muse with her daughter Carole whether 'her place in history was assured' then I can't see anything wrong with the person charged with burying her also having a review of her life.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    @foxinsoxuk

    If I'm in denial, please can you point to data points, any practical examples or studies suggesting Austerity is or has been successful anywhere?

    You must be able to. I'm the one in denial, remember?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    "where our city centres were places of plenty with cafes and shops overflowing."

    They still are, there's been no reduction in wealth consumption.

    Retail spending is at an all time high, government spending is at an all time high, imports are at an all time high.

    If you want to see where the depression is being felt then you need to leave the city centres and go to the industrial estates.


  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @Roger

    The Dean should STFU. Its none of his business. He is there to provide succour to the bereaved , not slag off the deceased..
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Consumer debt is falling Tim.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    We're likely to see a 'shock' rise in unemployment announced today.

    Perhaps of more relevance will be the productivity numbers we should also get.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    BenM said:

    If I'm in denial, please can you point to data points, any practical examples or studies suggesting Austerity is or has been successful anywhere?

    Arguably it worked for Latvia in 2008. They did it without devaluation, too. There's some detail here:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/world/europe/used-to-hardship-latvia-accepts-austerity-and-its-pain-eases.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

    A harder sell is how it's supposed to work when everybody does it at the same time.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @MarkGregoryEY: Case supporitng Govt debt is bad view undermined by spreadsheet error and logic issues. Time for a change in policy on IMF lines? #IMF #ITEM

    Ernst and Young,Osbornes failure spreading

    tim and ben

    You don't need an Excel spreadsheet to know you can't borrow your way out of debt.

    What next?

    Blank Powerpoint slides from EdM?

    An Access databasa of UKIP members?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,777
    BenM said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    If I'm in denial, please can you point to data points, any practical examples or studies suggesting Austerity is or has been successful anywhere?

    You must be able to. I'm the one in denial, remember?

    You seem to be having the fundamental error that austerity is designed to create growth. It is not. austerity is a consequence of too much of debt, and failure to control deficits.

    No one would choose austerity unless it was needed. The problem that all governments are wrestling with is how to create growth when it's not based on cheap debt.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2013
    @AnotherRichard

    "If you want to see where the depression is being felt then you need to leave the city centres and go to the industrial estates."

    I'm judging it by the time you have to wait for a table at the Ivy.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,777
    tim said:

    politicshomeuk ‏@politicshomeuk
    Mandelson: #Thatcher's advice to him when he became N Ireland Sec was "you can’t trust the Irish, they’re all liars." #r4today

    Given the IRA tried to murder her, and did murder a fair few of her closest friends I think you could understand why she was more than a little peeved at them. (the IRA at least, if not the greater wider 'irish').
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Could someone explain the context in which someone might call a fellow poster a 'troll'?

    The ironically named 'financier' has just flagged one of my posts with 'troll' and I'm bemused.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "I don't care what the Dean's political views are but at a funeral he should remember that he should be providing comfort to the bereaved and commending the soul of the departed to God not giving his views on her policies."

    There is only one Lawgiver and Judge, the one who is able to save and destroy. But you—who are you to judge your neighbor?

    James IV:12 (NIV)
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    @tim so do you and your TUC chums want less consumer debt and spending, or more? How do you think either of these would affect the deficit? And how much rebalancing of the economy did your Comrade Brown manage? Is spending huge amounts of money on things like making sure kids on free school meals and from ethnic minorities "close the gap" in achievement on other kids (at the expense of overall improvement in education) the kind of "investment" that rebalances the economy?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The poor Duchess of York.

    Has to wait an hour and a half for her inlaws to arrive.

    Oh how the mighty have fallen.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    If I'm in denial, please can you point to data points, any practical examples or studies suggesting Austerity is or has been successful anywhere?

    You must be able to. I'm the one in denial, remember?

    You seem to be having the fundamental error that austerity is designed to create growth. It is not. austerity is a consequence of too much of debt, and failure to control deficits.

    No one would choose austerity unless it was needed. The problem that all governments are wrestling with is how to create growth when it's not based on cheap debt.
    You missed Osborne's 2010 memo about "expansionary fiscal contraction" I see!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Roger said:

    Could someone explain the context in which someone might call a fellow poster a 'troll'?

    The ironically named 'financier' has just flagged one of my posts with 'troll' and I'm bemused.

    It could be worse, Roger.

    Someone has flagged a post of mine as "off topic".
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Roger said:

    @AnotherRichard

    "If you want to see where the depression is being felt then you need to leave the city centres and go to the industrial estates."

    I'm judging it by the time you have to wait for a table at the Ivy.

    That's very interesting Roger.

    I was under the impression that the London rich were still doing very well but perhaps that's not so.

    Maybe they do need that top rate tax cut after all.

    By comparison all the McDonalds and Weatherspoons I've been to recently have been doing a roaring trade.

    ;-)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,978
    Roger said:

    Could someone explain the context in which someone might call a fellow poster a 'troll'?

    The ironically named 'financier' has just flagged one of my posts with 'troll' and I'm bemused.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)
    In Internet slang, a troll (pron.: /ˈtroʊl/, /ˈtrɒl/) is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as a forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Can't wait until tomorrow - will the lefties Fatcha obsession be over ?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Roger said:

    @AnotherRichard

    "If you want to see where the depression is being felt then you need to leave the city centres and go to the industrial estates."

    I'm judging it by the time you have to wait for a table at the Ivy.

    That's very interesting Roger.

    I was under the impression that the London rich were still doing very well but perhaps that's not so.

    Maybe they do need that top rate tax cut after all.

    By comparison all the McDonalds and Weatherspoons I've been to recently have been doing a roaring trade.

    ;-)
    ar

    I trust you noted that the household savings ratio fell for the first time in many months in Q4 2012. Signs of increased consumer confidence in the economy and signposting the Q1 uplift in retail spend.

    Not a consumer boom but evidence of life in the economic patient.


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Another tim myth debunked - household debt is falling.

    This and his ridiculous "subprime" line is just laughable.

    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001853.html#more

    "From £239 billion at the beginning of 1987, household debt saw a more than fivefold rise to a peak of £1,550 billion at the end of 2008. Roughly £1 trillion occurred from the end of 1996. Though inflation played a part, debt rose from under 100% of annual household income to a high of 167.5%.

    Times have changed. Household debt does not normally fall. In cash terms it carried on rising through the recession of the early 1990s, before regaining momentum as the recovery gathered strength.

    This time, it has fallen. Not much, but it has fallen. At the end of 2011, household debt was £21bn lower than three years earlier. Though it has edged up a little since, it remains below its pre-crisis peak."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,777
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder

    The problem that all governments are wrestling with is how to create growth when it's not based on cheap debt.

    Not this govt, the decision has been made to rely on cheap debt, did you miss the budget?

    Osbornes just taking an easier way out. I don't approve of it.

    Someone should have the guts of standing up and saying, 'we don't expect growth for many years until we sort out our problems.'

    Currently the only way in which (certainly in the Eurozone and us) to generate growth is via government spending and cheap debt bubbles. IE a return to the old days.

    The magic growth formula would be to create growth without a debt bubble (either consumer or government), and no government has even got close to working out how that's possible yet (if indeed it is).
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Margaret Thatcher was a divisive politician, but unlike Kinnock and Jenkins, she didn't divide The Tories into two separate parties, Labour and The SDP. She was like a shepherd facing sheep and goats.

    It took Labour a very long time to work out, why they had failed in 1979, and why they divided in two in 1981. They were unelectable in 79, and too unstable and extreme to supplant her in 83.

    RIP Mrs T,
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    from the same article

    "The Help to Buy scheme unveiled by George Osborne in the budget takes it further and has produced a curious reaction. The centrepiece of the scheme - £12bn of government guarantees to support £130bn of new mortgages over three years - seeks to address the mortgage famine that has so depressed housing activity.

    Some of the criticism, suggesting it will create a sub-prime crisis in Britain, is preposterous. If we see mortgage lenders doling out loans to borrowers with no income, no jobs and no assets, America’s infamous Ninja borrowers, you might believe it. But that is not going to happen."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Also

    "Will not government mortgage guarantees lead to the household debt burden rising? No. Even if Help to Buy results in £130bn of new mortgages over three years, which may be optimistic, the household debt ratio would not rise, based on what has happened to incomes in recent years. Nor is it likely to produce a new house-price boom: the scale is not there. Net mortgage lending was rising by well over £100bn annually before the crisis. £130bn over three years is small by comparison.

    Should not people be encouraged to run down their debt further? There has already been unprecedented deleveraging and household balance sheets are healthy. Household assets are large in relation to income - 8.5 times according to the OBR - meaning that household net worth is 700% of household annual income.

    That is not a bad position to be in. Some people took on too much debt in the run-up to the crisis and the overall level rose too quickly. But household debt, typically 25-year debt, of under 150% of annual income is sustainable. Encouraging it down much further will simply deprive the economy of the demand it needs."
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Well, here it is. The April 2013 Labour statistics.

    And once again it is broadly good news.

    Key findings as follows:

    • The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for December 2012 to February 2013 was 71.4%, virtually unchanged from September to November 2012. There were 29.70 million people in employment aged 16 and over, little changed (down 2,000) from September to November 2012.

    • The unemployment rate for December 2012 to February 2013 was 7.9% of the economically active population, up 0.2 percentage points from September to November 2012. There were 2.56 million unemployed people, up 70,000 from September to November 2012.

    • The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for December 2012 to February 2013 was 22.2% (the lowest since 1991), down 0.2 percentage points from September to November 2012. There were 8.95 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 57,000 from September to November 2012.

    • Between December 2011 to February 2012 and December 2012 to February 2013 total pay rose by 0.8% (the lowest growth rate since September to November 2009) and regular pay rose by 1.0% (the lowest growth rate since records began in 2001).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    In summary - credit returning to normal - not Brownite boom levels.

    There are lines of genuine concern with GO's approach tim - but this aint one of them.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Unemployment up - a fitting tribute to Maggie :)

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2013
    It has the look of a Tory Party Conference c1984 with some faces I hoped I would never see again. This isn't an attractive event for those of us who didn't like Thatcher or any of her works.

    Something for everyone. Netanyahu and his wife. This thing is becoming macabre
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    And yet more good news

    Car sales figures released this morning show UK output and sales growing while they are contracting in the rest of Europe.

    How long will ben and tim bang on about austerity is not working when the fruits of George's success are falling in abundance around their feet.

    March data from the ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers' Association) showed car sales plunged in Europe, although the UK broke the trend with solid growth.

    According to the data, European demand for passenger cars slumped for the 18th consecutive month, as new car registrations declined 10.2%. Germany (-17.1%), France (-16.2%), Spain (-13.9%) and Italy (-4.9%) saw demand decrease, yet the ACEA noted that “the UK remained a resilient market, posting a 5.9% growth”.

    For the first quarter, the UK managed to increase new car registrations by 7.4% from the prior year. This compares to the 9.8% drop in the larger European Union.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "According to the data, European demand for passenger cars slumped for the 18th consecutive month, as new car registrations declined 10.2%. Germany (-17.1%), France (-16.2%),"

    Hollande WINNING here :D

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    ............
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2013
    Ya'allah! Unemployment rose by 70,000 between December and February.

    Nice one, Cammo.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,904


    You seem to be having the fundamental error that austerity is designed to create growth. It is not. austerity is a consequence of too much of debt, and failure to control deficits.

    No one would choose austerity unless it was needed.

    As people seem to be defining 'austerity' as any reduction whatsoever in public spending (or even a reduction in the rate of growth) that's highly contentious. Dismantling the excesses of Brown's spending and borrowing boom is not austerity, it's just sound government. I wish the coalition would get on with it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So 2,000 less jobs but 70,000 extra people on the unemployment list.

    Immigrants or scroungers thrown off disability ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm becoming confused.

    RT @BBCHughPym: Claimant count down 7,000 in March...
    employment down 2,000 in three months to Feb

    yet

    RT @BBCHughPym: Unemployment up 70,000 in three months ending in Feb.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I always think the ONS is best read bottom to top:

    There were 8.95 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 57,000 from September to November 2012. 57,000 who had not been actively seeking a job started to look for work.

    There were 2.56 million unemployed people, up 70,000 from September to November 2012. From that we can deduct the 57,000 (since we're using this as an indicator of overall strength) to get 13,000.

    There were 29.70 million people in employment aged 16 and over, little changed (down 2,000) from September to November 2012. Employment didn't change, and unemployment is up by 13,000, implying we grew by 11,000 new workers in the period.

    Nothing that indicates the sort of rise that we've been waiting for. The move from economically inactive would, I think, be considered a success by the government since it would be considered an aim of the welfare changes.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AveryLP said:

    Roger said:

    @AnotherRichard

    "If you want to see where the depression is being felt then you need to leave the city centres and go to the industrial estates."

    I'm judging it by the time you have to wait for a table at the Ivy.

    That's very interesting Roger.

    I was under the impression that the London rich were still doing very well but perhaps that's not so.

    Maybe they do need that top rate tax cut after all.

    By comparison all the McDonalds and Weatherspoons I've been to recently have been doing a roaring trade.

    ;-)
    ar

    I trust you noted that the household savings ratio fell for the first time in many months in Q4 2012. Signs of increased consumer confidence in the economy and signposting the Q1 uplift in retail spend.

    Not a consumer boom but evidence of life in the economic patient.


    Is an increase in retail spending a good thing? If the money is spent on imported goods and so largely going abroad does that make the Country wealthier or poorer? It might improve growf, but GDP is not the be all and end all.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Plato said:

    I'm becoming confused.

    RT @BBCHughPym: Claimant count down 7,000 in March...
    employment down 2,000 in three months to Feb

    yet

    RT @BBCHughPym: Unemployment up 70,000 in three months ending in Feb.

    Unemployment has long had several measures (governments have been fiddling with that stat since at least Thatcher if not before).
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @adamjlent: Mrs. Thatcher seems to have brought London to a standstill in a way only Bob Crow could dream about.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Awful job stats now feeding through.

    Avery thinks its broadly good news.

    I must be in a parallel dimension.
This discussion has been closed.