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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Diss-May. The manifest inadequacy of the outgoing Prime Minist

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    The G.O.P. Is Now a Personality Cult

    "That’s why the 2020 election will matter so much. One of America’s great political parties has lost its compass and its concern for the issues that once defined it. Only if it is walloped at the ballot box will it, perhaps, wake up and rebuild itself to become again the principled conservative party that America needs."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/20/opinion/sunday/republicans-united-states.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    The G.O.P. Is Now a Personality Cult

    "That’s why the 2020 election will matter so much. One of America’s great political parties has lost its compass and its concern for the issues that once defined it. Only if it is walloped at the ballot box will it, perhaps, wake up and rebuild itself to become again the principled conservative party that America needs."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/20/opinion/sunday/republicans-united-states.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    When's the last time the GOP was a principled conservative party? Certainly not within my lifetime and I don't think within yours either
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    alex. said:

    If six Tory MPs defected to the LibDems, then over a third of the Parliamentary party would consist of people not elected on a LibDem ticket.

    There are only 11 MPs elected as LibDem currently, as the Eastbourne chap has had the whip withdrawn
    To be accurate , he resigned the Whip..
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Maybe the problem is your own inability to understand why people would like a politician they perceive as representing their own values? If you just keep dismissively labelling every political movement you disagree with as a cult, you're never going to understand why people act the way they do
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    The point about Trump is that he can do or say almost anything with nary a GOP shrug. By contrast, there is a never ending procession of Labour figures lining up to criticise Corbyn.
    So directly the opposite in fact.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Maybe the problem is your own inability to understand why people would like a politician they perceive as representing their own values? If you just keep dismissively labelling every political movement you disagree with as a cult, you're never going to understand why people act the way they do
    But Trump doesn't represent the values of Republican party. He is a complete outlier. Yet no one in the party is prepared to do anything about the direction he is dragging them.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Update: NHK are no longer reporting 1 seat for the Protect The People From NHK Party, and are instead reporting a gain by a mysterious unspecified "Other".
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Maybe the problem is your own inability to understand why people would like a politician they perceive as representing their own values? If you just keep dismissively labelling every political movement you disagree with as a cult, you're never going to understand why people act the way they do
    But Trump doesn't represent the values of Republican party. He is a complete outlier. Yet no one in the party is prepared to do anything about the direction he is dragging them.
    Which values doesn't he represent?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Yorkcity said:

    malcolmg said:

    She is such a donkey , would be poetic justice for the Lib-Dems if they voted her as leader. Mind you as we know Lib Dems will change any principle or promise for a government car
    Would they back Scottish Independence if it helped them gain power ?
    I am certain they would change their mind if there was a limo involved, I do not believe anything is beyond them.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    FF43 said:

    Interesting article about the different paths taken by Basques and Catalans in the pursuit of autonomy and independence.

    https://twitter.com/ft/status/1149621660099547136

    That is excellent - among the best things I have read on the whole issue. If the Catalans had what the Basqiues have there would be no problems and everything would be sorted for the foreseeable future. When PSOE was last in power Madrid and Barcelona had come to an agreement, which the Cataland endorsed by referendum, that would have delivered just that. PP then tore it up. So, now it has to begin again, but from a much more difficult starting point.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Update: NHK are no longer reporting 1 seat for the Protect The People From NHK Party, and are instead reporting a gain by a mysterious unspecified "Other".

    Lol!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Maybe the problem is your own inability to understand why people would like a politician they perceive as representing their own values? If you just keep dismissively labelling every political movement you disagree with as a cult, you're never going to understand why people act the way they do
    But Trump doesn't represent the values of Republican party. He is a complete outlier. Yet no one in the party is prepared to do anything about the direction he is dragging them.
    Which values doesn't he represent?
    GOP used to have policies around keeping the debt level down for a start.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Maybe the problem is your own inability to understand why people would like a politician they perceive as representing their own values? If you just keep dismissively labelling every political movement you disagree with as a cult, you're never going to understand why people act the way they do
    mostly they act like sheep after being indoctrinated by the crap press in this country. Majority have no clue other than the big headlines and pictures on front of the media.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's an interesting data set: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

    Morning Consult is tracking Trump approval/disapproval on a state-by-state basis.

    There are some surprisingly strong results in there for Trump, like Virginia and Delaware from the Blue column looking like possible pickups and, with Arizona and Nevada looking like 50/50 shots.

    More worrying for him is the "rust belt" and Iowa. Wisconsin, which he edged in 2016, is showing -16. Michigan, another close win, is -15. Iowa, which he won comfortably is -12.

    This could be a key resource looking at next year's election.

    How have you translated Trump 20 percent drop in net approval in Nevada into a 50/50 chance?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    @Endillion,

    I do agree that Regulators were poor and that this was a big factor.

    They are 'participants' in the sense I was meaning it. Or particiPANTS perhaps we should say.

    And the most pants of all - who also happened to be by a mile the most influential - was IMO Alan Greenspan.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Wow Peaty breaks the world record for the 100 m breast stroke .

    Brings it down to 56.88 .
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Johnson or Jonestown?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Johnson or Jonestown?
    A Bozoic cult.
  • MarxMarx Posts: 28
    kinabalu said:

    Marx said:

    The other problem that is not mentioned is that is not the working class that took the big hit, it was the professional class who bought multiple property as part of their pension plans. When the bottom dropped out of the market, the house keys went into the swimming pool and the owner walked away. In many states, for the mortgage company to reclaim the property, the original signed mortgage document had to be provided to the court, no copies, electronic or otherwise could be accepted. In the rush to sell the properties, the retention of the paperwork was not seen as a priority, and has been mentioned, ownership of the mortgages had been split into many different packages.

    The professional class, who had anticipated a relaxed financially secure old age, paid for with a pension backed by bricks and mortar (or chipboard and paint) are significantly poorer.

    That's an interesting point. Although I think plenty of non professional types went BTL bonkers too. To steal the JP Morgan (was it?) quote - "when the plumber who came to fix my flush starts telling me about his third investment property ..."
    Surprisingly, it was the "working class" who, by scrimping and saving, and paying their single mortgages down who were far better financial bet than the professionals (lawyers, doctors, surgeons, dentists, etc..) who had multiple mortgaged properties which were unable to let or be sold.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:


    US person takes a mortgage to buy a house. Thousands of these bundled up into a mortgage backed security. That is a DERIVATIVE. It is tradeable.

    That's not a derivative.

    Mortgage-backed securities can be considered derivatives of the underlying mortgages.
    For instance:
    https://www.thebalance.com/role-of-derivatives-in-creating-mortgage-crisis-3970477

    But enough semantics. A more interesting question is whether the American government, if it had bailed out Lehman Brothers, might have prevented the liquidity crisis, in the same way our government stepped in to guarantee all deposits and end the run on Northern Rock. If lenders had not been scared off, perhaps the interlocking cog-wheels of the interbank derivatives markets might not have seized up.
    Northern Rock should have been allowed to go under as Lehmans was, if capitalism is not allowed to run its course and all banks know they can always get bailouts no matter how bad the decisions they make then it will be more likely to happen again
    You can't equate the two. Those at risk from Northern Rock were homeowners, small business owners and retail account holders. They had far less ability to withstand the shock than the mainly corporate clients of Lehman. For similar reasons, there was no way AIG could be allowed to go under, given its share of the US personal lines insurance market.

    There was also the systemic risk to be considered. Lehman and Bear Stearns could be isolated. Northern Rock and AIG could not.
    Rescuing Northern Rock is a textbook example of the kind of useful intervention governments can make. NR suffered a liquidity crisis as its funding model failed. It was solvent, as is illustrated by the fact the government made its money back. There was nothing fundamentally wrong with the UK financial system, just one bank (RBS) that had over expanded and lost money on some foreign assets.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex. said:

    If six Tory MPs defected to the LibDems, then over a third of the Parliamentary party would consist of people not elected on a LibDem ticket.

    There are only 11 MPs elected as LibDem currently, as the Eastbourne chap has had the whip withdrawn
    To be accurate , he resigned the Whip..
    To be even more accurate, none of the above can change the fact that he was elected as a LibDem.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    malcolmg said:

    I worry the Tories will go the same way as GOP and Labour, becoming a Johnson Cult.

    Maybe the problem is your own inability to understand why people would like a politician they perceive as representing their own values? If you just keep dismissively labelling every political movement you disagree with as a cult, you're never going to understand why people act the way they do
    mostly they act like sheep after being indoctrinated by the crap press in this country. Majority have no clue other than the big headlines and pictures on front of the media.
    Whereas you have such Olympian detachment that you can tell us what Liberal Democrats are "really" thinking.

    Pur-lease

    The grumpy old men of the cybernats recognize only their own world view and are too blind to see that some criticism of their policies and conduct in government is the result of actual failures of the SNP and not "wrong thinking" and/or ill will against the purity of the glorious nationalist ideal.

    It is a story of fanaticism that led to the loss of all but one SNP seat in the North East.. Folk are fed up with the cracked record of "independence, independence, independence". The destruction of the Scottish Tories may lead to a nominal uplift in SNP seats, but on the door steps the surge of 2015 has totally faded away.

    Our cheerful, tolerant, open-hearted nationalists on PB don't see this, but the SNP is NOT having it all its own way, and even the Euro results are weaker than the high water mark. They are not winning the argument and Independence is very far from inevitable,
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Marx said:

    Surprisingly, it was the "working class" who, by scrimping and saving, and paying their single mortgages down who were far better financial bet than the professionals (lawyers, doctors, surgeons, dentists, etc..) who had multiple mortgaged properties which were unable to let or be sold.

    It's a great point. Perhaps that was as big a part of the problem as the more talked about NINJA loans to people on their uppers.

    My main point is that both of those types of lending mistakes were caused by the need to feed the bonus generating machine. Loans were the primary input, turned into bonds, then synthetic bonds, then derivatives and hedging instruments on those, and derivatives and hedging instruments on those derivatives and hedging instruments. Etc.

    A house of cards was thus created that when it fell had an effect many times greater than the extent of default in the US property market would have led one to expect.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Japanese senate now counting.

    NHK reports that the Protect The People From NHK Party looks likely to win a seat.

    Thank you, @edmundintokyo .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    New Fred

This discussion has been closed.