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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?
One of the current big political issues in Washington at the moment is a series of Trump Tweets yesterday attacking elected female Democratic members of Congress for their criticism of him particularly over the regime he’s imposed on immigrants in border camps.
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He'll get away with it I'm sure. Boris is Boris, Donald is Donald
Boris will probably say the four Democrats have nice watermellon smiles etc...
https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1150720077085454336
Surely we are not replacing servitude to the EU with servitude to the USA?
https://twitter.com/HuffPostUK/status/1150719820461203456
Very odd.
...probably the most overtly racist public comments that he’s made....
Probably is a bit strong; there’s quite a bit of competition.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/453048-top-pence-aide-trumps-intent-wasnt-racist-in-attacks-on-progressive
Short disputed the charge that Trump is racist, noting that he has an Asian-American Cabinet official in Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao. He also cited a naturalization ceremony for new citizens that Pence and Chao attended on Independence Day.
Trump did not attend that ceremony, as he was at his golf club in Virginia.
When will these people grow up and realise, like adults do, that simply believing in things doesn't make them true.
But 8% of blacks voted for him. 1 or 2% coming back to Dems could matter in 2020.
Biden or Harris could pull some of that back, especially if the Racist in Chief isn't kept away from Twitter.
It would only take the Iranians to do something a bit stupid in the Strait on a day when Donald is in a foul mood because of his golf score and...
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/08/an-epidemic-of-disbelief/592807/
That's definitely two for a VoNC I reckon. Clarke being the other.
https://www.businessinsider.com/elaine-chao-diverted-federal-grants-to-kentucky-report-2019-6?r=US&IR=T
However I do think that this could be the alt-right's last hurrah on both sides of the pond. The level of corruption and lies may be corrosive of democracy in general, but the polls are showing that the right are indeed getting the blame first. Meanwhile the demographic that almost literally sold its soul to Trump- the religious right and the NRA- are facing meltdown. While I know we are supposed to be scared of the boogeyman, the fact is that Trump is seen as being a weak and cowardly leader (and indeed a vile and unpleasant human being).
Farage as the giggling accolyte to Trump is unpopular in the extreme and if there is wrong doing at TBP concerning the leaks of Sir Kim Darroch's cables, then I think that the "Perp Walk" of any TBP figure will concentrate quite a few minds.
Equally, allying to Trump will make Johnson even more unpopular than he already is- and lets face it, Johnson could only win a GE by gaming the FPTP system in the same way that Trump did, because the chances look pretty low that he even breaks 26% of the vote. Trumpism- corrupt and Russian supported, is deeply unpopular and if Johnson allies himself to it, he will be shackling himself to a political corpse.
The UK situation is of course still very volatile, but whereas Theresa May gets some pity, and even some respect, Johnson will have no honeymoon at all. Adding support for Trump to the charge list of recklessness and arrogant incompetence could will be the straw that breaks the Tory back. I think TBP will mirror UKIP or even the Referendum Party and hurt the Tories without winning enough themselves, but meanwhile the Tories get strung up by the Liberal Democrats. In 1997 the Tories lost more than half their seats. I wonder what the odds are that they do even worse at the next election?
The longer they leave it the more likely that events conspire to kill them off.
By the way... these are not just my thoughts- several Conservatives have said the same things to me, they genuinely say that the chances of survival for the Tories are increasingly remote, and several of them actually welcome the reckoning that they think the party will get.
Suppose we get a second referendum, and remain. There will be some who will want to avoid us ever 'leaving' again and so integrate us even more simply to make it impossible or extra painful to leave. That very act could spur the resentment of some and awaken it in others.
I forget the names, but during the downfall of the Han dynasty, when it was still possible for the situation to be rescued, an amnesty was refused for rebels who just wanted to come in from the cold. As a result, they had nothing to lose and continued to rebel, and ended up playing a part in the dynasty's destruction.
No action will please everyone. But a majority on both sides must be at least wearily content with the settlement or one side or the other will seek to overturn it at the first opportunity.
Whether that be with the EU or USA either way it is insane.
I suspect these tweets will look very mild compared to the ones we will see in September onwards next year...
https://twitter.com/ColinYeo1/status/1131864901666910208
In addition he will be under the direction of events outside his command, including the constant imminent threat of losing a VONC even from day 1.
Putting these together we are trying to predict the 1967 Grand National. Fun, but not realistic.
Those against no deal will do everything possible to rule that out by legislation.
Of more immediate interest is what happens next week when the new PM is announced , the optics of Bozo entering no 10 and at the same time some defections to the Lib Dems or Whip resignations could effectively wipe out the Tories working majority.
Dominic Grieve won’t defect , more likely resign the whip together with Guto Bebb and Philip Lee .
Justine Greening could move to the Lib Dems , at the same time I expect Sarah Wollaston to do the same .
They will actually be very creative to avoid a VONC as they were last time. They will however VONC if and only if that is the last option available to stop no deal (or somehow Boris has prorogued and we have left and he sheepishly brings parliament back).
The threat of a VONC is obviously a card can they play to avoid the actual VONC.
We know the current POTUS is a racist jerk.
Saying that publicly doesn’t gain anything for the UK.
The UK can function perfectly well without a US trade deal
If one makes sense for both sides then great, if not then whatever
YouGov and Survation have published the detailed tables, per BPC rules, but not ComRes (why?)
The numbers are absolutely dreadful for Ruth Davidson and Richard Leonard, and cheerful reading for Nicola Sturgeon and Willie Rennie. Jo Swinson is going to inherit a lovely start on home ground (about doubled support), but is she capable of nurturing it?
Ruthie is a spent force, and there is no love lost between her and her new master Boris the Clown. I doubt she has the guts to stay, get gubbed at the next election, and thus lose her halo. Best to go before everybody notices that you were crap all along.
https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/General-Election-Voting-Intention-July-12-2019.xlsx
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28gnxojyae/TheTimes_190710_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
At the moment, I'd expect Trump to be re-elected.
Parliament UK has the working majority down to 0.
They said there'll be a deal for Brexit
They said it'll be easiest on Earth
But instead the House kept on rejecting
Withdrawal agreement: strangled at birth
I remember twenty-ninth March Morning
A springtime light and Cameron's bête noire
With a snarl out of hell, Farage we know well
His eyes full of hatred and fire
They sold me a dream of Brexit
They told me about British might
They told me a fairy story
'Till I believed their xenophobic shite
And I believed in Boris Johnson
And I looked to the future with excited eyes
'Till I woke with a yawn in the first Light of dawn
And I saw him and through his disguise
I wish you a hopeful Brexit
I wish you a brave new era
All anguish pain and sadness
Leave your Heart and let your road be clear
They said there'll be deals so easy
Global Britain bestriding Earth
Will BMW directors save us? Will they hell
The Brexit we get we deserve
Hard to imagine there are many Americans thinking that if Trump could only be a touch MORE racist then they might make the effort to drag themselves off the porch, put their rifle down and vote for him.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/723547810633777152
Formally, of course there is only one China. With two governments.
You genuinely think that the outgoing Con leader and PM is about to immediately VoNC the incoming Con leader and PM? That would be unprecedented in not just English history, but world history. Surely not??
On the other hand, Xi has beefed up China's military and has been using it to test the Japanese over the disputed islands (incidentally, Taiwan claims those too), and seize half the South China Sea, de facto.
Humbuggery galore.
May is incredibly wobbly in many ways, but surely nobody could doubt that she is a textbook example of a partisan. She will be Tory till the day she dies. Or the party dies, which looks like being the earlier event.
On this one a key practical question is - if we pander to this piece of scum will it get us a significantly better trade deal than if we don't?
My sense is probably not. In which case it might well be better not to.
Plus - god willing - he will be gone soon.
But... do you think this would have been over waist height had Stokes been standing straight?
(41.7.1 Any delivery, which passes or would have passed, without pitching, above waist height of the striker standing upright at the popping crease, is to be deemed to be unfair, whether or not it is likely to inflict physical injury on the striker. If the bowler bowls such a delivery the umpire shall immediately call and signal No ball.)
Being pro- or anti-EU because a blonde cretin is the probable next PM is foolish.
Unfortunately, the political class has behaved so wretchedly that we have an array of bad options, and the dithering has only intensified the poisonous political atmosphere.
English wine consumers clearly are idiots, but fortunately for the country her businesspeople are not ideologues. They know that when it comes to procurement and export, geography is more important than language.
They are hardly going to do a big mea cupla type press conference and resign.