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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What it takes to be a good leader

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Viceroy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Viceroy said:

    Viceroy of Orange here.

    Can anyone explain why, suddenly last night, I was unable to post and still am unable to post on this forum with my original account? It won't allow me to quote or post.

    Are all views not welcome on here?

    You're not shown as banned in the system
    What do you think it could be then? I logged in, logged out. It shows my profile picture and the text box, but just won't quote or allow any posts.

    Appreciate the help btw.
    Two viceroys? This is getting out of hand! :p

    This might be a browser issue. Are you commenting through the main site, or through Vanilla?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    After Brexit we'll all be losing many, many pounds

    https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/1149423122283560960
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ‘I had assumed mistakenly that the tough bit of the negotiation was with the EU, that Parliament would accept the vote of the British people and just want to get it done, that people who’d spent their lives campaigning for Brexit would vote to get us out on March 29 and May 27. But they didn’t.’...

    Significantly, she avoids referring to Boris Johnson by name but there is little doubt who she has in mind when she says: ‘Too many people in politics think being Prime Minister is a position of power.

    ‘Actually, it is a position of service to the country where you are always asking yourself “What more can I do for the public?”.

    ‘All too often those who see it as a position of power see it as about themselves and not about the people they are serving. There is a real difference.’ Ouch!


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7238445/If-male-PM-weeps-hes-patriot-woman-does-ask-why.html
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    ‘I had assumed mistakenly that the tough bit of the negotiation was with the EU, that Parliament would accept the vote of the British people and just want to get it done, that people who’d spent their lives campaigning for Brexit would vote to get us out on March 29 and May 27. But they didn’t.’...


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7238445/If-male-PM-weeps-hes-patriot-woman-does-ask-why.html

    The people campaigning for Brexit, the ERG, Boris, Gove, Ukip and Nigel Farage, some of them for years, some after they'd written two articles, never developed their notion of a post-Brexit Britain. That is the problem.

    Theresa May (given Cameron's failure to do so) should have set up a commission to answer this fundamental question before triggering Article 50.

    Most of her, and our, problems stem from that failure because it meant every pro-Brexit MP could retain his or her own unicorn Brexit against which to judge the Withdrawal Agreement (itself not the final deal) and find it wanting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Any idea what the typical timescale for the commission to produce and publish a report?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Hot tubs have never held any attraction for me, though I've never tried one. WTF has it to do with the story? Is DomC angling for a job with the Daily Mail?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    This may have been discussed earlier - but the clip of Corbyn saying how he doesn't care about any of this is probably only to be expected of him.

    https://twitter.com/TheGolem_/status/1149344548491055109

    I wonder what Uncle Thickie's reaction would have been if it was anti-LGBT stuff? I have a feeling it would have been outraged of Islington mode...
    Too many MPs have been quiet on the bigotry on display outside the schools in Birmingham and beyond.

    Perish the thought that Labour might not wish to upset their Muslim voters by condemning what has happened as bigoted and just plain wrong.

    Now I know it is only a small number of parents protesting and not all of those who object to this particular curriculum are Muslim - but most of it is being done in the name of Islam.

    So this is not an attack on all Muslims or all of Islam. But it is very much an attack on those who use their religion - any religion - as justification for bigotry, hatred and ignorance.

    But politicians of all parties have not done enough to condemn this.
    Absolutely...Jess Philips being the exception...and should be praised for doing so.
    I am going to send the thread header I did on this to our feeble Education and Equalities Ministers and tell them to turn it into a speech and do the effing job we pay them to do.
    I think we know what people do with emails of that length. They delete them immediately. Lengthy emails are often a sign of the overly passionate and obsessed, and to be ignored.

    Which is a shame, as it was a very good header.
    Sadly you are almost certainly right. I may print it off and put it in a letter. (Remember those?) With probably the same effect.

    How does one get politicians to pay attention?
    Write a large cheque

    That will get them to listen but not hear
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    If Ministers resigned for mistakes that were not their fault, but that the 'public' feel were a disgrace, we would be changing ministers all the time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited July 2019
    dixiedean said:

    That is a truly spectacular result. The kind that has become run of the mill lately.
    And in what HY would call a leave seat. A strong one - over 58% leave for the whole constituency. And a Ward with one of the highest concentrations of pensioners in the UK.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2019

    This may have been discussed earlier - but the clip of Corbyn saying how he doesn't care about any of this is probably only to be expected of him.

    https://twitter.com/TheGolem_/status/1149344548491055109

    Did anyone actually listen to the clip? There is no mention of antisemitism (maybe there was before the start: who knows?).

    Corbyn says:
    But, be aware of this, I'm sure you all are. There's been some criticisms made of us in the right-wing media over the last summer, and I understand some of the papers even say unkind things about me from time to time. [Audience laughs.] Look, it doesn't bother me; nothing keeps me awake at night anyway; I frankly don't care. What I care about is what we do as a party and how we win as a party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Ashcroft endorses Jeremy Hunt, perhaps a surprising choice though he says he can certainly see Boris in the job cheering us up
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/lord-ashcroft-my-choice-for-the-next-prime-minister.html

    Given Ashcroft has worked closely with Tory leaders n the past maybe he thinks Johnson is not up to the job of PM. When you go to the dentist or doctor, do you want someone who makes you laugh or someone to seriously deal with the problem? Boris is an idiot who prefers to indulge in levity rather than substance....
    Sounds pretty much like an advert for Theresa May as PM and we all know how that worked out, the Tories now need a leader who believes in Brexit and can deliver it in my view and win an election, that means Boris
    I am sorry but Boris is a complete fool. I will not vote Tory whilst that cretin is leader! I really cannot understand what you see in him. Bonkers...
    Knocking up tonight I had several former Tory Party voters now voting Brexit Party who said they would only consider coming back to the party nationally if Boris becomes leader, I did not find any Tory or ex Tory voters saying they were desperate for Hunt to become leader.

    It is as simple as that
    I think you will find that Chigwell isn’t very representative of the UK.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    This may have been discussed earlier - but the clip of Corbyn saying how he doesn't care about any of this is probably only to be expected of him.

    https://twitter.com/TheGolem_/status/1149344548491055109

    Did anyone actually listen to the clip? There is no mention of antisemitism (maybe there was before the start: who knows?).

    Corbyn says:
    But, be aware of this, I'm sure you all are. There's been some criticisms made of us in the right-wing media over the last summer, and I understand some of the papers even say unkind things about me from time to time. [Audience laughs.] Look, it doesn't bother me; nothing keeps me awake at night anyway; I frankly don't care. What I care about is what we do as a party and how we win as a party.
    Yeah I was dumb enough to be suckered in.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2019
    rkrkrk said:

    If Ministers resigned for mistakes that were not their fault, but that the 'public' feel were a disgrace, we would be changing ministers all the time.

    That begs the question: are ministers responsible for the actions of their departments?

    Lord Carrington thought so. Mrs Thatcher did not; Winston Churchill did not. Maybe Cyclefree has it wrong and the mark of a true leader is not accepting responsibility even for their own mistakes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    That the early days of the Trump administration were chaotic and his behaviour somewhat immature is hardly news. It is all set out in painful detail in the Michael Wolff book.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    In last night’s other by-election, Whitecross Herefordshire:

    It’s Our County : 60.7% (+13.0)
    Lib Dem: 28.1% (+10.5)
    Con 11.2% (-3.4)

    IOC hold.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    Someone’s worried another of their sources is going to prison....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Ashcroft endorses Jeremy Hunt, perhaps a surprising choice though he says he can certainly see Boris in the job cheering us up
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/lord-ashcroft-my-choice-for-the-next-prime-minister.html

    Won't be cheering me up.
    HY chooses to leave out the most important words in Ashcroft’s assessment, following on immediately from the comment about Boris cheering us up, which are “at least for a time”,
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    That the early days of the Trump administration were chaotic and his behaviour somewhat immature is hardly news. It is all set out in painful detail in the Michael Wolff book.
    Indeed, which is why I find it odd that the Ambassador felt the need to put something in an official correspondence that was telling everyone something we all knew.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    Someone’s worried another of their sources is going to prison....
    You think she's lying?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    justin124 said:

    The Tory majority in Chigwell Row has reduced by nearly 75% and @HYUFD is happy.

    I must know what drugs you are taking.

    Dodgy maths there.

    The swing was not 75%. It isn't possible to retain a seat on a 75% swing.

    If a seat is held with a majority of 4 one election then held again with a majority of 1 I wouldn't say that was a bad result reducing the majority by 75%.
    Not so!. He did not say 'swing' but 'reduced majority'. If majority falls from circa 200 to circa 50 that is 75% in vote terms - though possibly smaller in terms of vote share.
    I don't know how big the ward is, but a majority dropping by 150 votes is little more than noise. Run the elction in two weeks time and it might be back up to 190 votes with no fundamental change in the political opinions.

    You should not be using percentage changes when the base number (ie 200 votes) is small compared to the overall variablity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good morning, everyone.

    British Grand Prix weekend begins today. Have to be good to live up to Austria.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    The official secrets act doesn't care about the classification level. Whoever leaked it seems guilty under section 3(1)(a)

    (1) A person who is or has been a Crown servant or government contractor is guilty of an offence if without lawful authority he makes a damaging disclosure of—
    (a)any information, document or other article relating to international relations; or
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    Someone’s worried another of their sources is going to prison....
    You think she's lying?
    If someone has breached the Official Secrets Act they’re very likely going to jail....

    As to your question, I generally extend Ms Oakeshott less of the benefit of the doubt than I do to others....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    Someone’s worried another of their sources is going to prison....
    Well, if someone who presumably understands official secrets sent a bunch of diplomatic messages to a journalist, prison is where they’ll be going.

    There’s no public interest defence to breaches of the OSA, and even if there was it would hardly apply to this case, which seemed designed to embarrass a civil servant and cause diplomatic problems, rather than reveal anything of particular insight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    That the early days of the Trump administration were chaotic and his behaviour somewhat immature is hardly news. It is all set out in painful detail in the Michael Wolff book.
    Indeed, which is why I find it odd that the Ambassador felt the need to put something in an official correspondence that was telling everyone something we all knew.
    Isn’t the answer that the DipTels were contemporaneous - hence news at the time - and whoever is the leaker has been sitting on them and gathering up a whole batch before sending them to little Isobel? So a carefully premeditated leak, it would appear.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    That the early days of the Trump administration were chaotic and his behaviour somewhat immature is hardly news. It is all set out in painful detail in the Michael Wolff book.
    Indeed, which is why I find it odd that the Ambassador felt the need to put something in an official correspondence that was telling everyone something we all knew.
    There is a story of a new researcher at the Pentagon being hauled over the coals for revealing a state secret in a draft article. The generals were unmoved by his protestations that he'd got it from Jane's Defence Weekly, to which the Soviet Embassy had many subscriptions, or that the President had mentioned it in a televised speech. "Well he shouldn't have."

    The ambassador files regular reports. No doubt most of it is mundane and much of the rest could be gathered from reading the newspapers (or these days watching Fox News all day, as the president is said to do).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Good morning, everyone.

    British Grand Prix weekend begins today. Have to be good to live up to Austria.

    I can save you some time here. Lewis Hamilton will win because he always does. 4/5 from Hills and Betfred looks big. It is interesting that Leclerc is shorter than his supposedly senior teammate, Vettel.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Misconduct in public office is also relevant. Those who solicit such misconduct also commit offences.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    New fred about B&R betting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited July 2019
    eristdoof said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tory majority in Chigwell Row has reduced by nearly 75% and @HYUFD is happy.

    I must know what drugs you are taking.

    Dodgy maths there.

    The swing was not 75%. It isn't possible to retain a seat on a 75% swing.

    If a seat is held with a majority of 4 one election then held again with a majority of 1 I wouldn't say that was a bad result reducing the majority by 75%.
    Not so!. He did not say 'swing' but 'reduced majority'. If majority falls from circa 200 to circa 50 that is 75% in vote terms - though possibly smaller in terms of vote share.
    I don't know how big the ward is, but a majority dropping by 150 votes is little more than noise. Run the elction in two weeks time and it might be back up to 190 votes with no fundamental change in the political opinions.

    You should not be using percentage changes when the base number (ie 200 votes) is small compared to the overall variablity.
    In a parish council ward such a shift would normally be seen as significant.

    More importantly, as the eve of the Great Bozo walking into number ten approaches, in principal local councils the Tories were crushed in a previously very safe ward in a leave seat, and saw their vote reduce in the other local by-election last night.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    New fred about B&R betting.

    It's not on vanilla :(
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. JohnL, Verstappen won the last race.

    I've been contemplating him at 11 for this one, but think I'll wait until after qualifying.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    New Thread
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    RobD said:

    New fred about B&R betting.

    It's not on vanilla :(
    It’s good to see that the new expat delay routine is now operational.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    New fred about B&R betting.

    It's not on vanilla :(
    It’s good to see that the new expat delay routine is now operational.
    Tomorrow I'll try a UK VPN. :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Ashcroft endorses Jeremy Hunt, perhaps a surprising choice though he says he can certainly see Boris in the job cheering us up
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/lord-ashcroft-my-choice-for-the-next-prime-minister.html

    Given Ashcroft has worked closely with Tory leaders n the past maybe he thinks Johnson is not up to the job of PM. When you go to the dentist or doctor, do you want someone who makes you laugh or someone to seriously deal with the problem? Boris is an idiot who prefers to indulge in levity rather than substance....
    Sounds pretty much like an advert for Theresa May as PM and we all know how that worked out, the Tories now need a leader who believes in Brexit and can deliver it in my view and win an election, that means Boris
    I am sorry but Boris is a complete fool. I will not vote Tory whilst that cretin is leader! I really cannot understand what you see in him. Bonkers...
    Knocking up tonight I had several former Tory Party voters now voting Brexit Party who said they would only consider coming back to the party nationally if Boris becomes leader, I did not find any Tory or ex Tory voters saying they were desperate for Hunt to become leader.

    It is as simple as that
    I think you will find that Chigwell isn’t very representative of the UK.
    It voted Leave just like the UK and this was Chigwell Row, a village just outside of Chigwell rather than Chigwell itself
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Only just read this article by @Cyclefree. Brilliant!
This discussion has been closed.