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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in the leadership battle in the party that won four

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  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sounds like Corbyn is becoming increasingly isolated within the cabinet over Brexit.

    Boy. I knew the Tories were thin on talent right now.
    Boris wouldn't notice him because he doesn't have tits.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Can't parliament 'take back control' and with PM Letwin-Cooper for the day revoke Art 50 ?
    That's a halfway serious question.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Can't parliament 'take back control' and with PM Letwin-Cooper for the day revoke Art 50 ?
    That's a halfway serious question.
    She would need to make it known that she could command a majority in the house. Possible in principle, unlikely in practice, partic while Mr Thicky is still LoTO (supposedly)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Can't believe you can still get 2019 as year of GE at 2.5 on BF, after today's out put from Boris.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Can't believe you can still get 2019 as year of GE at 2.5 on BF, after today's out put from Boris.

    13/8 at Ladbrokes: https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-general-election/225280407/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Scott_P said:
    And people wonder why he is accused of being a serial liar. It is pathological. He really can't help himself. He is a walking bullshit generator.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Can't parliament 'take back control' and with PM Letwin-Cooper for the day revoke Art 50 ?
    That's a halfway serious question.
    It might not need to. It sounds as if Boris intends (once the "renegotiation" fails) to give Parliament an ultimatum - back no deal, or revoke. That could be interesting.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Any anti-no deal Conservative MP who reads Boris Johnson's letter and thinks that he can be given chance to show his mettle before any decision to oppose him can be made is simply deluding himself or herself.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Animal_pb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Can't parliament 'take back control' and with PM Letwin-Cooper for the day revoke Art 50 ?
    That's a halfway serious question.
    It might not need to. It sounds as if Boris intends (once the "renegotiation" fails) to give Parliament an ultimatum - back no deal, or revoke. That could be interesting.
    It would be his "roulette" style. "Put it all on black". Oh cripes, bugger, come up red. Sorry chaps.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Meeks, makes it all the dafter MPs backed the imbecile so strongly.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Mr. Meeks, makes it all the dafter MPs backed the imbecile so strongly.

    I think there was a careerist element there Mr Dancer. They are thinking that knowing the make up of the membership these days, he was a dead cert. An acquaintance of mine made the same calculation and backed David Davis!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Pulpstar said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    He holds all the cards.
    .. but hasn't left himself time to play them.
    Yes but Boris is playing the children's card game "Old Maid" - if he fails with the EU talks he'll play his final card - Ann Widdecombe .... :wink:
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Any anti-no deal Conservative MP who reads Boris Johnson's letter and thinks that he can be given chance to show his mettle before any decision to oppose him can be made is simply deluding himself or herself.

    (Self) delusion is not a Leaver monopoly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Goodnight England.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Any anti-no deal Conservative MP who reads Boris Johnson's letter and thinks that he can be given chance to show his mettle before any decision to oppose him can be made is simply deluding himself or herself.

    In particular the people who follow Rory Stewart's line on No Deal being preferable to revocation. Boris Johnson could engineer a situation in which they'd be backed into a corner.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    matt said:

    A private garden party attending by the sort of people in the photo is unlikely to be a rabble that requires a rabble rousing speech. Rousing perhaps. Arousing, one hopes not. Rabble rousing, really?

    OK, it's not One Direction, but I can quite imagine those tory ladies getting worked up listening to Boris (blond locks, twinkly eyes, latin words and all) giving the NHS a good going over.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Johnson has now written a letter saying he will take UK out by 31st Oct, deal or no deal.

    There is now no excuse for remainer Tory MPs. They have to stop him becoming PM in July by indicating they will no confidence in sufficient numbers.

    Either way the Tory party splits, but at least there would not have been No Deal chaos.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Foremain, certainly possible, but they're still fools for backing a man with the character and incompetence of Boris.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Any anti-no deal Conservative MP who reads Boris Johnson's letter and thinks that he can be given chance to show his mettle before any decision to oppose him can be made is simply deluding himself or herself.

    :+1: x 100

    It is July or never.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Animal_pb said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Best not keep it in Sterling, Euros dollars or gold would be a better bet..
    Gold. Definitely gold.
    Re: your question FPT

    No one is going to be better off as a result of this. They have decided to make it a political issue even though it will make its citizens worse off.

    But London will be hit worse than the rest (we should come up with a way to delay implementation) so they don't care

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    isam said:
    Top Gear is even worse.

    I banned my son from watching it - but he found ways around it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    kinabalu said:

    By contrast to the Clown, Jeremy Hunt cannot help but come over as a latter day Confucius.

    Problem with this is, he is avoiding the flack he ought to be getting for peddling fantasy on Brexit instead of a plan. I want to see him pressed on this.

    I would also like some debating space provided for the question of whether it is advisable for the leaders of our 2 main parties to have the same 1st name - Jeremy in this case. Not aware of a precedent for this. Might seem trivial but it should at least be discussed. Better safe than sorry.

    Harold MacMillan.
    Harold Wilson.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    dr_spyn said:

    kinabalu said:

    By contrast to the Clown, Jeremy Hunt cannot help but come over as a latter day Confucius.

    Problem with this is, he is avoiding the flack he ought to be getting for peddling fantasy on Brexit instead of a plan. I want to see him pressed on this.

    I would also like some debating space provided for the question of whether it is advisable for the leaders of our 2 main parties to have the same 1st name - Jeremy in this case. Not aware of a precedent for this. Might seem trivial but it should at least be discussed. Better safe than sorry.

    Harold MacMillan.
    Harold Wilson.
    Also
    John Major
    John Smith
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    A private garden party attending by the sort of people in the photo is unlikely to be a rabble that requires a rabble rousing speech. Rousing perhaps. Arousing, one hopes not. Rabble rousing, really?

    OK, it's not One Direction, but I can quite imagine those tory ladies getting worked up listening to Boris (blond locks, twinkly eyes, latin words and all) giving the NHS a good going over.
    There's more unrequited sexual tension in that picture than at a Cliff Richard concert.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    Brexiteers eh?

    They'd back Hitler I reckon.

    https://twitter.com/tonynevin/status/1143504957968125952

    For those wondering, it is not worth seeing any of mr nevin's other tweets.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    edited June 2019
    Constantine's sons were Constantius, Constans, and Constantine.

    Daft sod.

    Edited extra bit: and Crispus, of course, whom he murdered.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:
    That is one of the most outrageous tweets I've seen. Shocking split infinitive.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:
    That is one of the most outrageous tweets I've seen. Shocking split infinitive.
    The combination on McDonnell and a 2nd ref will surely make things worse for Labour.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Charles said:

    Animal_pb said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Best not keep it in Sterling, Euros dollars or gold would be a better bet..
    Gold. Definitely gold.
    Re: your question FPT

    No one is going to be better off as a result of this. They have decided to make it a political issue even though it will make its citizens worse off.

    But London will be hit worse than the rest (we should come up with a way to delay implementation) so they don't care

    Thank you for the response. I presume this drives more business to NY, in the short term?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Constantine's sons were Constantius, Constans, and Constantine.

    Daft sod.

    Edited extra bit: and Crispus, of course, whom he murdered.

    Jermaine Jackson's sons include Jermaine Jnr, Jamie, Jeremy and Jermajesty.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Meeks, *sighs*
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679

    Constantine's sons were Constantius, Constans, and Constantine.

    Daft sod.

    Edited extra bit: and Crispus, of course, whom he murdered.

    Jermaine Jackson's sons include Jermaine Jnr, Jamie, Jeremy and Jermajesty.
    Still not as bad as Nigel Lawson naming his daughter Nigella.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited June 2019

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    These guys think they are in the run in. Sit tight, do nothing and out we go. They may well be right.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited June 2019
    If we crash out without a deal it would make Francois, Baker et al the most effective political operators since Nigel Farage.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited June 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Sounds like Corbyn is becoming increasingly isolated within the cabinet over Brexit.

    Sounds like McCluskey and Milne are calling the shots these days so unless the shadow cabinet are prepared to actually do something it will become increasingly irrelevant.

    How Brexit is handled at this year's Labour conference will be very illuminating, I'm expecting any resolutions demanding a pro-Remain/2nd Ref stance to be prevented from being debated. We could, of course, be overtaken by events before we get there.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting that Rentoul says that the Boris campaign has been surprised that Jeremy Hunt is proving a more aggressive campaigner than they expected.

    I could have told them that, and I've only chatted to him for about 15 minutes over pre-dinner drinks.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    isam said:
    Vot is your Brexit plan?

    Don't tell him Pike!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Well, we've now reached Crimean War analogies- https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1143561180151259141?s=19

    Another 4 weeks of this. Too exciting!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Nabavi, that's an unfair comment to make, given you're not a complacent buffoon.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    TOPPING said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    These guys think they are in the run in. Sit tight, do nothing and out we go. They may well be right.
    I did point this out back in February......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    TOPPING said:

    If we crash out without a deal it would make Francois, Baker et al the most effective political operators since Nigel Farage?

    Nope, they'd be like Hitler in 1940.

    They'd win the battle(s) but not the war.

    Or for a non Godwin comparison they'd be like Hannibal during the early phase of the Second Punic War, then they'd have their testicles handed to them at the end of the war.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TOPPING said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    These guys think they are in the run in. Sit tight, do nothing and out we go. They may well be right.
    Did I dream the last few months? I can't actually believe people are still claiming that Brexit will happen by default, and that Parliament can't stop it, when that was shown to be untrue in March.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    Three ways to make it happen.

    Option 1: Ratify a WDA.
    Option 2: Don't ask for an extension, clock runs out, we leave.
    Option 3: Ask for an extension, be refused, clock runs out, we leave.

    If Parliament demands we ask for an extension then Boris should write to the European Council stating that an extension has been requested and its only purpose should be to renegotiate an alternative to the backstop as there is no point extending otherwise. If they say yes then great, we remove the backstop and can ratify after a short extension. If they say no then we have honoured Parliaments request and we leave.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    #BoJoNoShow trending on Twitter (FWIF!) - no 4 in London
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting that Rentoul says that the Boris campaign has been surprised that Jeremy Hunt is proving a more aggressive campaigner than they expected.

    I could have told them that, and I've only chatted to him for about 15 minutes over pre-dinner drinks.
    Every single time a candidate underestimates their opponent or tries to finesse a win by default/inevitability it backfires. The political landscape is littered with the corpses of sure things. You'd have hoped Boris or those around him would have studied that point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Eagles, a horrendous comparison.

    It's more akin to the low cunning of Honorius.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    He knows (and it's obvious) the longer this goes on the worse it gets for the Conservative Party. The failure to leave on March 29th and the extension agreed in early April smashed May's voting coalition which had survived since 2016.

    Were the Conservatives to agree to another extension, it would only lead to more voters being drained away to TBP - Boris knows it, the only way to preserve the Conservative Party is to take us out of the EU on 31/10.

    He may well reason however bad the consequences are, a significant group of voters (enough for a parliamentary majority?) will stay loyal simply because we are out. If he has to lose a few Tories to get back most of TBP that may be a price worth paying.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    These guys think they are in the run in. Sit tight, do nothing and out we go. They may well be right.
    Did I dream the last few months? I can't actually believe people are still claiming that Brexit will happen by default, and that Parliament can't stop it, when that was shown to be untrue in March.
    Maybe but it's far from straightforward.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Constitutional crisis heading our way (if we get through July's looming crisis):

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1143556001649569793
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    These guys think they are in the run in. Sit tight, do nothing and out we go. They may well be right.
    Did I dream the last few months? I can't actually believe people are still claiming that Brexit will happen by default, and that Parliament can't stop it, when that was shown to be untrue in March.
    It wasn't shown to be untrue. In March we had a PM who suggested Parliament request an extension and facilitated and requested one.

    A PM who doesn't want to request one is a different kettle of fish. They can either ignore Parliament's request, or they can request an extension in such a manner it compels Europe to veto the request.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091



    If Parliament demands we ask for an extension then Boris should write to the European Council stating that an extension has been requested and its only purpose should be to renegotiate an alternative to the backstop as there is no point extending otherwise. If they say yes then great, we remove the backstop and can ratify after a short extension. If they say no then we have honoured Parliaments request and we leave.

    The EU again refuses to renegotiate the backstop, but instead offers another extension til March 2020 to figure out what the hell we want to do. Boris initially says no to that extension, but within a couple of days Parliament instructs him to say yes, instead.

    What then?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    stodge said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    He knows (and it's obvious) the longer this goes on the worse it gets for the Conservative Party. The failure to leave on March 29th and the extension agreed in early April smashed May's voting coalition which had survived since 2016.

    Were the Conservatives to agree to another extension, it would only lead to more voters being drained away to TBP - Boris knows it, the only way to preserve the Conservative Party is to take us out of the EU on 31/10.

    He may well reason however bad the consequences are, a significant group of voters (enough for a parliamentary majority?) will stay loyal simply because we are out. If he has to lose a few Tories to get back most of TBP that may be a price worth paying.
    And he's happy to handle the resulting chaos and economic catastrophe? Boris wants to be loved all the time.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Constitutional crisis heading our way (if we get through July's looming crisis):

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1143556001649569793

    Charles I and James II might want to haunt Boris and tell him what happens when you ignore the wishes of a stroppy Parliament.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Still waiting for anyone who has said all along there can be no renegotiations to suggest what the purpose of extending is?

    If we can renegotiate and get rid of the backstop an extension would make sense. But if we can't, what is the point?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Danny565 said:



    If Parliament demands we ask for an extension then Boris should write to the European Council stating that an extension has been requested and its only purpose should be to renegotiate an alternative to the backstop as there is no point extending otherwise. If they say yes then great, we remove the backstop and can ratify after a short extension. If they say no then we have honoured Parliaments request and we leave.

    The EU again refuses to renegotiate the backstop, but instead offers another extension til March 2020 to figure out what the hell we want to do. Boris initially says no to that extension, but within a couple of days Parliament instructs him to say yes, instead.

    What then?
    Boris says no, time's up, we leave. We've already decided what we want to do, we want to leave.

    Or Parliament says VONC, elects Corbyn, we remain.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    I think he's panicked because he is campaign has got off to such a bad start. He will promise the party loons anything now in order to win and worry about how he gets out of it once the ballot is over.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
    Ratifying the WA now requires an extension; there's a whole bunch of legislation required.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2019

    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
    Ratifying the WA now requires an extension; there's a whole bunch of legislation required.
    There are 4 months between now and Halloween. Even accounting for recess there will still be nearly 2 months if ratifying the WDA is the answer.

    EDIT: Plus of course Parliament [due to its Remainers primarily] rejected the WDA three times already. Is that going to change?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    These guys think they are in the run in. Sit tight, do nothing and out we go. They may well be right.
    Did I dream the last few months? I can't actually believe people are still claiming that Brexit will happen by default, and that Parliament can't stop it, when that was shown to be untrue in March.
    It wasn't shown to be untrue. In March we had a PM who suggested Parliament request an extension and facilitated and requested one.

    A PM who doesn't want to request one is a different kettle of fish. They can either ignore Parliament's request, or they can request an extension in such a manner it compels Europe to veto the request.
    But it's not as binary as that (the EU simply accepting or vetoing the British PM's request for an extension), is it? Both times May requested an extension this year, the EU refused to agree to her initial suggestion, but instead offered an alternative date to extend to. The same would happen again this time, probably.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2019

    Still waiting for anyone who has said all along there can be no renegotiations to suggest what the purpose of extending is?

    If we can renegotiate and get rid of the backstop an extension would make sense. But if we can't, what is the point?

    Well, the purpose of an extension would either be to agree and implement the deal which Boris claims is possible, or alternatively to put in place the emergency legislation to mitigate the utter chaos which would ensure if he can't get a deal. Those are the two alternatives Boris is proposing, neither of which can be done by 31st October. Of course, we might theoretically be able to make a no-deal crash out even more disastrous than it would otherwise be by leaving only a few weeks to do it, but no sentient PM should even begin to contemplate such madness, which would be pure self-harm.

    In addition, Boris has impaled himself on the Theresa May 29th March spike. What happens to his pledge if parliament finds a way to insist on a delay, which certainly can't be ruled out although the mechanism is opaque?

    Three lunacies in one pledge. That's not bad going.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    OllyT said:

    I think he's panicked because he is campaign has got off to such a bad start. He will promise the party loons anything now in order to win and worry about how he gets out of it once the ballot is over.

    I think I may have said before that Boris only believes in one thing, becoming PM, all else is up for bids, and subject to future withdrawal. Boris is so desperate to become PM that he's making the job of actually being PM increasingly difficult.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    How can I put this except to state that it is as hot as air can ever get?

    It's classic Boris. All guff.

    Simply saying it's going to happen isn't going to make it happen. How? How exactly is this going to happen?

    No. I didn't think you'd have any answer. He hasn't either.
    These guys think they are in the run in. Sit tight, do nothing and out we go. They may well be right.
    Did I dream the last few months? I can't actually believe people are still claiming that Brexit will happen by default, and that Parliament can't stop it, when that was shown to be untrue in March.
    It wasn't shown to be untrue. In March we had a PM who suggested Parliament request an extension and facilitated and requested one.

    A PM who doesn't want to request one is a different kettle of fish. They can either ignore Parliament's request, or they can request an extension in such a manner it compels Europe to veto the request.
    But it's not as binary as that (the EU simply accepting or vetoing the British PM's request for an extension), is it? Both times May requested an extension this year, the EU refused to agree to her initial suggestion, but instead offered an alternative date to extend to. The same would happen again this time, probably.
    Difference of date and difference of purpose are 2 very different things. If the UK insists the only purpose for extending is to renegotiate the WDA and the EU says that's not possible then what are they going to extend for?

    Plus seriously of course what is the point of Hunt or Boris extending if the EU won't renegotiate?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Best not keep it in Sterling, Euros dollars or gold would be a better bet..
    I set up a dollar account and a Euro account specifically to do that. See previous posts from earlier this year discussing hedging against no-deal. It is really depressing when you realise that Conservative thought is split between those who talk bollocks and don't realise it, and those who know damn well this will [rudeword] other people up but just don't care. Who was it who do the analogy about driving at night but the driver is insane and all you can do is hang on? I think it was Hunter S. Thompson, but happy to be corrected.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
    Ratifying the WA now requires an extension; there's a whole bunch of legislation required.
    There are 4 months between now and Halloween. Even accounting for recess there will still be nearly 2 months if ratifying the WDA is the answer.

    EDIT: Plus of course Parliament [due to its Remainers primarily] rejected the WDA three times already. Is that going to change?
    He doesn't start now. He starts if at all on the 24th July, with one day of parliamentary time before the recess, no majority in parliament, a possible general election, Eurocrats away in August, the Commission winding down, and the new lot not in place until the 1st November. It very hard to think of any other set of circumstances so inimical to a quick resolution.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. Meeks, makes it all the dafter MPs backed the imbecile so strongly.

    I think there was a careerist element there Mr Dancer. They are thinking that knowing the make up of the membership these days, he was a dead cert. An acquaintance of mine made the same calculation and backed David Davis!
    MP salary £79,468. Boris's tax cut threshold: £80,000.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Beginning to think it would be hilarious if on the day before the leadership results Parliament voted to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    My parents lived in Switzerland for some years, they were forever hopping over the French border, there were rarely to never physical checks. The whole thing is a confected nonsense. If it wasn't this there would be a looming crisis over the harmonisation of duck eggs or something.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    Those are the two alternatives Boris is proposing, neither of which can be done by 31st October. Of course, we might theoretically be able to make a no-deal crash out even more disastrous than it would otherwise be by leaving only a few weeks to do it, but no sentient PM should even begin to contemplate such madness, which would be pure self-harm.

    Indeed even if you were a "dynamite the channel tunnel" Brexiteer there are "good" no-deals and "bad" no-deals, even an extremist might want to be able to choose the exact time and form of crashing out. Boris is making commitments that will severely limit his freedom to choose the course we take.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sticking all my Con leadership winnings on a 2019 election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679

    NEW THREAD

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Sounds suspiciously like the standard line that we need to be 'liked' to get anywhere with the EU. See Blair and Cameron.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    dr_spyn said:

    Harold MacMillan.
    Harold Wilson.

    Nice one!

    But they didn't fight an election against each other. If it's Hunt v Corbyn in October we are going to struggle. Every comment referencing Jeremy or Jez or Jezza will be open to misunderstanding unless qualified (which people will not have the time and patience to do).

    I don't mean just on here I'm talking about the whole election conversation across the nation. It will be a factor.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
    Ratifying the WA now requires an extension; there's a whole bunch of legislation required.
    There are 4 months between now and Halloween. Even accounting for recess there will still be nearly 2 months if ratifying the WDA is the answer.

    EDIT: Plus of course Parliament [due to its Remainers primarily] rejected the WDA three times already. Is that going to change?
    Not just the WA, remember; all the other legislation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
    Ratifying the WA now requires an extension; there's a whole bunch of legislation required.
    There are 4 months between now and Halloween. Even accounting for recess there will still be nearly 2 months if ratifying the WDA is the answer.

    EDIT: Plus of course Parliament [due to its Remainers primarily] rejected the WDA three times already. Is that going to change?
    He doesn't start now. He starts if at all on the 24th July, with one day of parliamentary time before the recess, no majority in parliament, a possible general election, Eurocrats away in August, the Commission winding down, and the new lot not in place until the 1st November. It very hard to think of any other set of circumstances so inimical to a quick resolution.
    Can recess be delayed/postponed or cancelled?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Still waiting for anyone who has said all along there can be no renegotiations to suggest what the purpose of extending is?

    If we can renegotiate and get rid of the backstop an extension would make sense. But if we can't, what is the point?

    When we handed in our Article wotsit, we soon realised that we couldn't get prepared for transition in time. So we negotiated the withdrawal agreement to bridge the gap until Dec 2020, at which time we would have in theory negotiated the more permanent agreement. Unfortunately the agreement was rejected, and now an extension has become a shibboleth: the Remainers fight for it as a proxy for Remaining, the Leavers fight against it as a proxy for Leaving. The use to which an extension should be put (preparing for departure) had sadly been neglected and it now looks like we will elect somebody who is either stupid enough to not realise the problem or mendacious enough to know full well the problems but are ignoring than because his tribe won't get hurt.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    My parents lived in Switzerland for some years, they were forever hopping over the French border, there were rarely to never physical checks. The whole thing is a confected nonsense. If it wasn't this there would be a looming crisis over the harmonisation of duck eggs or something.
    "Rarely to never"? Two of those three words are unnecessary.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
    Ratifying the WA now requires an extension; there's a whole bunch of legislation required.
    There are 4 months between now and Halloween. Even accounting for recess there will still be nearly 2 months if ratifying the WDA is the answer.

    EDIT: Plus of course Parliament [due to its Remainers primarily] rejected the WDA three times already. Is that going to change?
    He doesn't start now. He starts if at all on the 24th July, with one day of parliamentary time before the recess, no majority in parliament, a possible general election, Eurocrats away in August, the Commission winding down, and the new lot not in place until the 1st November. It very hard to think of any other set of circumstances so inimical to a quick resolution.
    Can recess be delayed/postponed or cancelled?
    That would require MPs postponing their holidays. Would you like me to insert my rant about the poor qualities of MPs here or can we just take the rest of this post as read? It's just that I'm trying to be less sweary and I don't want to stress myself overmuch... :)
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    If Boris does make PM, I doubt we'll leave at all. If you're a Remainer, vote Boris.
    Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have both said they'll VoNC him. I imagine Justin Greening and Philip Lee will join them. Probably a half dozen more. I don't think the DUP will save his government either.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    Good letter from Boris. Enough is enough, there is no point [short of the EU saying lets have wholesale renegotiations of the WDA] dragging this past October.

    Believe me - there is....
    What point?

    I keep getting told by so many people here that there are going to be no renegotiations of the WDA. So why drag this out?

    It seems to me we have 4 choices.

    1: Ratify WDA [no extension necessary]
    2: Renegotiate WDA [extension necessary but we're told this is impossible]
    3: Leave without a deal [no extension necessary]
    4: Revoke [no extension necessary]

    If renegotiations are off the table, what is the point in extending?
    Ratifying the WA now requires an extension; there's a whole bunch of legislation required.
    There are 4 months between now and Halloween. Even accounting for recess there will still be nearly 2 months if ratifying the WDA is the answer.

    EDIT: Plus of course Parliament [due to its Remainers primarily] rejected the WDA three times already. Is that going to change?
    He doesn't start now. He starts if at all on the 24th July, with one day of parliamentary time before the recess, no majority in parliament, a possible general election, Eurocrats away in August, the Commission winding down, and the new lot not in place until the 1st November. It very hard to think of any other set of circumstances so inimical to a quick resolution.
    Can recess be delayed/postponed or cancelled?
    That would require MPs postponing their holidays. Would you like me to insert my rant about the poor qualities of MPs here or can we just take the rest of this post as read? It's just that I'm trying to be less sweary and I don't want to stress myself overmuch... :)
    So? It’s a national emergency. If Parliament needs to meet for a couple of extra weeks then it needs to meet.

    Not that I’d expect it to achieve anything much.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    TOPPING said:

    If we crash out without a deal it would make Francois, Baker et al the most effective political operators since Nigel Farage?

    Nope, they'd be like Hitler in 1940.

    They'd win the battle(s) but not the war.

    Or for a non Godwin comparison they'd be like Hannibal during the early phase of the Second Punic War, then they'd have their testicles handed to them at the end of the war.
    “Pyrrhic victory” is a great deal easier to say.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    viewcode said:

    My parents lived in Switzerland for some years, they were forever hopping over the French border, there were rarely to never physical checks. The whole thing is a confected nonsense. If it wasn't this there would be a looming crisis over the harmonisation of duck eggs or something.
    "Rarely to never"? Two of those three words are unnecessary.
    I'm norm aware of them ever being stopped, certainly they never were when I was with them, but they could have been. Switzerland is a very civic, very nosey country. If you went over the border every day bringing in goods from France, you'd be stopped and told off. But there wasn't an intrusion into day to day comings and goings.
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145


    My parents lived in Switzerland for some years, they were forever hopping over the French border, there were rarely to never physical checks. The whole thing is a confected nonsense.

    No it's not. Switzerland is in Schengen and EFTA, which is way beyond the kind of integration that's currently being proposed for the UK, and yet there is a huge border infrastructure that often gets clogged. Schengen means that people move pretty freely, but it would be a very different matter if your folks were driving an HGV, see eg :

    https://twitter.com/donnyc1975/status/1143065247781130240

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Animal_pb said:

    Charles said:

    Animal_pb said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Best not keep it in Sterling, Euros dollars or gold would be a better bet..
    Gold. Definitely gold.
    Re: your question FPT

    No one is going to be better off as a result of this. They have decided to make it a political issue even though it will make its citizens worse off.

    But London will be hit worse than the rest (we should come up with a way to delay implementation) so they don't care

    Thank you for the response. I presume this drives more business to NY, in the short term?
    Not necessarily - trading tends to flow to liquid markets so assume most will end up in Zurich.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, we've now reached Crimean War analogies- https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1143561180151259141?s=19

    Another 4 weeks of this. Too exciting!

    Rory’s not complimenting Boris...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ToryJim said:

    Constitutional crisis heading our way (if we get through July's looming crisis):

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1143556001649569793

    Charles I and James II might want to haunt Boris and tell him what happens when you ignore the wishes of a stroppy Parliament.
    Didn’t Sir Ed Davey have to apologise earlier today for proposing a decapitation strategy?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris ain't giving himself much wiggle room:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304/photo/1

    Spectacularly stupid. That by itself should rule him out as a potential leader, let alone anything else

    You may not agree with it but I think (and have thought all along) that he does genuinely believe that we should leave the EU on a specific date with or without a deal.

    And the thing is the selectorate agrees with him too. So he will be PM on 22nd July and then we're very likely to leave with or without a deal shortly afterwards.

    Better cash in all your money and put it under the floor boards! :D
    Best not keep it in Sterling, Euros dollars or gold would be a better bet..
    I set up a dollar account and a Euro account specifically to do that. See previous posts from earlier this year discussing hedging against no-deal. It is really depressing when you realise that Conservative thought is split between those who talk bollocks and don't realise it, and those who know damn well this will [rudeword] other people up but just don't care. Who was it who do the analogy about driving at night but the driver is insane and all you can do is hang on? I think it was Hunter S. Thompson, but happy to be corrected.
    Don’t forget those who believe that our political leaders have messed things up, but there is no democratic alternative.
This discussion has been closed.