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SystemSystem Posts: 12,774
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters have this right the big loser in the CON debate was Stewart – down from a 9% chance to a 4% one

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    1st.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Lay the second favourite?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    I thought Javid edged it.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2019
    I do not think Boris Johnson is PM material.

    Such a shame!

    I wonder how quickly the novelty will ware off and he becomes public enemy No.1?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,203
    Fourth like the Tories
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Ave_it said:

    We'll be lucky to get 20% at the next GE with this crew

    Ever the optimist.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,857
    If the debate was a match at the cricket world cup then Boris would have got an uncharacteristic slow safe 25 before being bowled by Abdullah .
    Hunt would have put the bad balls away and made a solid 50 without anyone noticing .
    Rory would have got out for 0 attempting a weird new shot that left him sprawled on the ground
    The Saj would have got into an argument with his teammates berating them for poor fielding and in the heat of the bollocking getting them all to agree to some weird cliche about a buzzword nobody knows what it means
    Gove would have been drug tested.
    Maitless would have got her umpiring decisions overturned by the third umpire.

    Hunt won on a dodgy Duckworth lewis calculation
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,869
    edited June 2019
    Now Stewart knows what he needs - either a podium to be dignified behind, or people to be directly relatable with as on his national walking tours. JFK, the model for this kind of sociable dignity in a politician, wouldn't have been good in a Newsnight round-table brawl either.

    Next time Rory, this time Boris, I think.
  • JamesLJamesL Posts: 7
    This seems on the money - Rory bubble burst. I think Saj will beat him in the next round
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Now Stewart knows what he needs - either a podium to be dignified behind, or people to be directly relatable with as on his national walking tours. JFK, the model for this kind of sociable dignity in a politician, wouldn't have been good in a Newsnight round-table brawl either.

    Next time Rory, this time Boris, I think.

    His learning point is that in an environment where he will be interrupted from the third word out of his mouth (unlike his own events), he needs to focus down on quicker answers. It's a shame, but this did not seem a good environment for him.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JamesL said:

    This seems on the money - Rory bubble burst. I think Saj will beat him in the next round

    If he does, isn't he also the most likely recipient of the majority of Rory's transfers - and thus be in pole position to make the final? It would be a hell of a story to survive by one vote and then get through to the members.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    state_go_away said:

    If the debate was a match at the cricket world cup then Boris would have got an uncharacteristic slow safe 25 before being bowled by Abdullah .
    Hunt would have put the bad balls away and made a solid 50 without anyone noticing .
    Rory would have got out for 0 attempting a weird new shot that left him sprawled on the ground
    The Saj would have got into an argument with his teammates berating them for poor fielding and in the heat of the bollocking getting them all to agree to some weird cliche about a buzzword nobody knows what it means
    Gove would have been drug tested.
    Maitless would have got her umpiring decisions overturned by the third umpire.

    Hunt won on a dodgy Duckworth lewis calculation

    Hunt meets the benchmark for behaving, looking and sounding like a PM.

    Boris will still win but he looks like compo out of last of the summer wine and just does not string a sentence together in the manner of a PM. Boris also has the problem of poor judgement which will be everyones problem if he becomes PM!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,875
    edited June 2019
    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,857
    The Saj at 50/1 to be the winner without johnson in the 3rd ballot is worth a fiver imho -ladbrokes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    Blimey, every single commentator or pol journalist I have checked on twitter has called this in varying degrees, a disgrace, a national embarrassment, the worst broadcast they can remember, a shouty mess, a squabble, kids in a playground, a cock measuring competition etc etc.

    Then, I read this:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1141073762948923393

    It was irony.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Tissue_Price said:

    JamesL said:

    This seems on the money - Rory bubble burst. I think Saj will beat him in the next round

    If he does, isn't he also the most likely recipient of the majority of Rory's transfers - and thus be in pole position to make the final? It would be a hell of a story to survive by one vote and then get through to the members.
    I think Hunt benefits from Stewart as well, but agree that if Javid is still in he gets a slug. Whichever of Javid/Stewart who outlasts the other benefits a lot though, I agree.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,929
    Stewart did OK but it was disappointing because expectations had run out of control.

    The visuals did not work for him - too short and thin for that stool he was on.

    Also the middle 3 ganged up on him rather than on Johnson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    Me, me, me. Let me in. My great-grandfather was Scottish.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Tissue_Price said:

    JamesL said:

    This seems on the money - Rory bubble burst. I think Saj will beat him in the next round

    If he does, isn't he also the most likely recipient of the majority of Rory's transfers - and thus be in pole position to make the final? It would be a hell of a story to survive by one vote and then get through to the members.
    It would be, but not impossible for The Jav
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    JamesL said:

    This seems on the money - Rory bubble burst. I think Saj will beat him in the next round

    Not his format. A fantastic learning experience for him. Glad I laid a little at 11 this early evening.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,745
    edited June 2019
    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    https://youtu.be/E3D9Lh3_1zg
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    Hunt and Rory now level.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,969
    edited June 2019
    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    FPT You said the Eastern Europeans in Peterborough were voting against The Brexit Party who hate them, but that part of the article was referring to the 2017 election which took place before TBP existed.

    Yellow Card for you. One more fact check and you’re off like Hamza
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,929
    state_go_away said:

    The Saj at 50/1 to be the winner without johnson in the 3rd ballot is worth a fiver imho -ladbrokes

    That is a ridiculous price.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    Boris as was suggested yesterday will hold a referendum on the backstop in NI if the EU still won't renegotiate for a FTA for GB. A plurality of Scots support a FTA for GB

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    The BBC should be ashamed of themselves. They bottled it, in the sense that they gave up on Brexit after twenty minutes or so and started on utterly irrelevant questions.

    Nothing else matters in this national crisis. They should have spent an hour on Brexit and forensically taken each one of them apart.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,326
    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,962
    Watching the debate now.

    Very, very odd...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    edited June 2019
    The_Taxman said:

    state_go_away said:

    If the debate was a match at the cricket world cup then Boris would have got an uncharacteristic slow safe 25 before being bowled by Abdullah .
    Hunt would have put the bad balls away and made a solid 50 without anyone noticing .
    Rory would have got out for 0 attempting a weird new shot that left him sprawled on the ground
    The Saj would have got into an argument with his teammates berating them for poor fielding and in the heat of the bollocking getting them all to agree to some weird cliche about a buzzword nobody knows what it means
    Gove would have been drug tested.
    Maitless would have got her umpiring decisions overturned by the third umpire.

    Hunt won on a dodgy Duckworth lewis calculation

    Hunt meets the benchmark for behaving, looking and sounding like a PM.

    Boris will still win but he looks like compo out of last of the summer wine and just does not string a sentence together in the manner of a PM. Boris also has the problem of poor judgement which will be everyones problem if he becomes PM!
    Much like Mitt Romney met the benchmark for behaving, looking and sounding like a US President unlike Trump you mean.

    Unfortunately the oiks in the rustbelt Midwest did not agree and clearly need reeducating, as do the oiks who voted Leave here
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    state_go_away said:

    If the debate was a match at the cricket world cup then Boris would have got an uncharacteristic slow safe 25 before being bowled by Abdullah .
    Hunt would have put the bad balls away and made a solid 50 without anyone noticing .
    Rory would have got out for 0 attempting a weird new shot that left him sprawled on the ground
    The Saj would have got into an argument with his teammates berating them for poor fielding and in the heat of the bollocking getting them all to agree to some weird cliche about a buzzword nobody knows what it means
    Gove would have been drug tested.
    Maitless would have got her umpiring decisions overturned by the third umpire.

    Hunt won on a dodgy Duckworth lewis calculation

    Meanwhile at the womens FIFA world cup Johnson is rugby tackling the shorts off the players.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,512
    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    Me, me, me. Let me in. My great-grandfather was Scottish.
    I still need to finish off the railways north of the Central Belt! Oh, and Ayr-Stranraer (was closed last autumn!).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Tissue_Price said:

    JamesL said:

    This seems on the money - Rory bubble burst. I think Saj will beat him in the next round

    If he does, isn't he also the most likely recipient of the majority of Rory's transfers - and thus be in pole position to make the final? It would be a hell of a story to survive by one vote and then get through to the members.
    If my maths is right, then anyone getting 60 votes next time knows that they can't be last. This means Boris's team at 128 have plenty to lose and still be sure of getting through. If Williamson is the headcounter people on here think he is, then the Boris team can decide who gets eliminated next round. I'm very leery of betting on this until it gets to the run-off.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,110
    O Rory, O mon roi! L'univers t'abandonne ...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,724
    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    Listening to Boris on Brexit, the EU negotiators are probably wondering how to structure a deal which Boris could sell to parliament which involves the EU getting long term strategic advantages over the UK in return. Unlike May who for all her faults wanted a good deal for the country, he will accept anything he can sugar coat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,745
    Are we convinced political debates are a good idea, or are they more heat than light?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,996
    edited June 2019
    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I live right on the border, and am willing to issue visas. Cash payments only.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,906
    state_go_away said:

    The Saj at 50/1 to be the winner without johnson in the 3rd ballot is worth a fiver imho -ladbrokes

    It is. The question is, who do thoughtful Raab backers* transfer to? No point Boris...he's in the final two. Not Hunt or Stewart for ideological reasons. That leaves Gove and Javid. Assuming they want Stewart out that is.

    *Am I being kind in juxtaposing thoughtful and Raab supporters?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Now Stewart knows what he needs - either a podium to be dignified behind, or people to be directly relatable with as on his national walking tours. JFK, the model for this kind of sociable dignity in a politician, wouldn't have been good in a Newsnight round-table brawl either.

    Next time Rory, this time Boris, I think.

    He did well in the Channel 4 debate though. Tonight's forum was a mess, not helped by Maitlis being utterly useless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1141079366484541441?s=20
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    Rory Stewart never had a 9% chance of becoming Tory leader before or after the debate.

    Assuming the debate won't have changed many Tory MP's minds, Gove could well close the gap or overtake Hunt with Raab and Javid transfers.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    The Scots note that Farage with zero MPs has more power than the Scots, with 59 MPs. The Yookay is broken.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    It will be fun watching the EU making this point to PM Boris.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    phthisic? Be careful old chap.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,745
    Rory the tory has a bit of.a lee evans looks about him in lots of.photos.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,110
    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1141095899285864455?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,906
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I live right on the border, and am willing to issue visas. Cash payments only.
    Me too. Will beat any Moonbeam Enterprises price!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,745
    Jeremy Corbyn plans to use a speech in the coming days to outline the latest evolution in Labour’s Brexit policy – but is expected to stop well short of the clarion call for remain demanded by his deputy, Tom Watson.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2019
    I wasn't watching the whole thing, fortunately, but I've read the blogs and looked at a few excerpts.

    What an embarrassment. To think these are all present or recent Cabinet Ministers, and I'm a member of their party. The shame of it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    https://twitter.com/mattforde/status/1141072808904187905
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    StuartDickson said:

    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    The Scots note that Farage with zero MPs has more power than the Scots, with 59 MPs. The Yookay is broken.
    Yes, quite possibly. Though I wonder how many Scots will seek a union-breaking referendum after the total calamito-catastropho-fyck of Brexit. We Shall See.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn plans to use a speech in the coming days to outline the latest evolution in Labour’s Brexit policy – but is expected to stop well short of the clarion call for remain demanded by his deputy, Tom Watson.

    Shocked I tell you!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I wasn't watching the whole thing, fortunately, but I've read the blogs and looked at a few excerpts.

    What an embarrassment. To think these are all present or recent Cabinet Ministers, and I'm a member of their party. The shame of it.

    Indeed. They had a list of things that were wrong, tax, nhs, social care. Not a single one seemed aware that they had been in the Cabinet for years.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,869
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1141079366484541441?s=20

    He was always asking the most rational questions about this in the debate, but as people have said, the format didn't allow him to carry this through ; and as others also seem to have said, the others seemed to instinctively gang up on him to prevent him doing this ; which he then responded to by explicitly distinguishing himself from the rest ; which then only increased this behaviour - etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    StuartDickson said:

    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    The Scots note that Farage with zero MPs has more power than the Scots, with 59 MPs. The Yookay is broken.
    If Farage was PM we would have left the UK in March, it was SNP MPs who made the difference in passing Cooper-Letwin.

    Not to forget of course Farage now has an MEP in Scotland and is polling neck and neck with the Tories for second in the latest Scottish polls
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,724
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I wasn't watching the whole thing, fortunately, but I've read the blogs and looked at a few excerpts.

    What an embarrassment. To think these are all present or recent Cabinet Ministers, and I'm a member of their party. The shame of it.

    It really wasn't that bad. It was a political debate, with an awkward format. It was mildly boring. Is all. French and American debates are often far, far worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    Yes as in reality as has been reported Boris wants a FTA for GB and referendum on the backstop in NI which the EU would agree and would enable the transition period and which would win him a general election
  • isamisam Posts: 42,969
    edited June 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I wasn't watching the whole thing, fortunately, but I've read the blogs and looked at a few excerpts.

    What an embarrassment. To think these are all present or recent Cabinet Ministers, and I'm a member of their party. The shame of it.

    PM Farage the best bet

    https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1141094684439273472?s=21
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    edited June 2019
    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    It has been reported to have been made by advisers close to Boris but he has to win the Tory leadership first and promise a brilliant renegotiation with the EU with no backstop and no CU and no SM etc, if the EU say no then he can shift to a FTA for GB still leaving the CU and SM in GB and a referendum on the backstop in NI platform having safely been elected leader by Tory members and have a platform that would win a general election
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,110
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    Yes as in reality as has been reported Boris wants a FTA for GB and referendum on the backstop in NI which the EU would agree and would enable the transition period and which would win him a general election
    No thanks - that was exactly the nonsense I didn't want to hear any more of.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Byronic said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    The Scots note that Farage with zero MPs has more power than the Scots, with 59 MPs. The Yookay is broken.
    Yes, quite possibly. Though I wonder how many Scots will seek a union-breaking referendum after the total calamito-catastropho-fyck of Brexit. We Shall See.
    The most recent poll shows a majority in favour of an early independence referendum.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I wasn't watching the whole thing, fortunately, but I've read the blogs and looked at a few excerpts.

    What an embarrassment. To think these are all present or recent Cabinet Ministers, and I'm a member of their party. The shame of it.

    Indeed. They had a list of things that were wrong, tax, nhs, social care. Not a single one seemed aware that they had been in the Cabinet for years.
    Rory hasn't, to be fair.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    StuartDickson said:

    Byronic said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    The Scots note that Farage with zero MPs has more power than the Scots, with 59 MPs. The Yookay is broken.
    Yes, quite possibly. Though I wonder how many Scots will seek a union-breaking referendum after the total calamito-catastropho-fyck of Brexit. We Shall See.
    The most recent poll shows a majority in favour of an early independence referendum.
    Fair dos. Good luck.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I wasn't watching the whole thing, fortunately, but I've read the blogs and looked at a few excerpts.

    What an embarrassment. To think these are all present or recent Cabinet Ministers, and I'm a member of their party. The shame of it.

    It really wasn't that bad. It was a political debate, with an awkward format. It was mildly boring. Is all. French and American debates are often far, far worse.
    Maybe, but French and American politicians haven't impaled themselves on a hard deadline with zero idea how to meet it.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,969
    https://twitter.com/jamiejbartlett/status/1141069067274641409?s=21
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    state_go_away said:

    If the debate was a match at the cricket world cup then Boris would have got an uncharacteristic slow safe 25 before being bowled by Abdullah .
    Hunt would have put the bad balls away and made a solid 50 without anyone noticing .
    Rory would have got out for 0 attempting a weird new shot that left him sprawled on the ground
    The Saj would have got into an argument with his teammates berating them for poor fielding and in the heat of the bollocking getting them all to agree to some weird cliche about a buzzword nobody knows what it means
    Gove would have been drug tested.
    Maitless would have got her umpiring decisions overturned by the third umpire.

    Hunt won on a dodgy Duckworth lewis calculation

    Hunt meets the benchmark for behaving, looking and sounding like a PM.

    Boris will still win but he looks like compo out of last of the summer wine and just does not string a sentence together in the manner of a PM. Boris also has the problem of poor judgement which will be everyones problem if he becomes PM!
    Much like Mitt Romney met the benchmark for behaving, looking and sounding like a US President unlike Trump you mean.

    Unfortunately the oiks in the rustbelt Midwest did not agree and clearly need reeducating, as do the oiks who voted Leave here
    Trump has terrible approval ratings. The oiks in the Midwest may well have changed their mind when he runs again in 2020. The EC in 2016 was won in a handful of states by small margins. I suggest it looks harder for him than any incumbant before him with a reasonable economic backdrop (excluding the trade war which is impacting some states critical to Trump with tarriffs by China and EU on specific products from swing states).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,110
    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
    Boris Johnson really doesn't understand that the transition period is linked to a deal, and that without a deal there won't be a transition period?

    How can someone who is aspiring to be prime minister be so mind-blowingly ignorant?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,875
    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
    Point of fact: We will be in a worse trade position than Afghanistan with the EU. Afghanistan is a signatory of the Everything But Arms treaty, so like many other LDCs has tariff free access to the EU for most products:

    https://www.export.gov/article?id=Afghanistan-trade-agreements
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Byronic said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Byronic said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    The Scots note that Farage with zero MPs has more power than the Scots, with 59 MPs. The Yookay is broken.
    Yes, quite possibly. Though I wonder how many Scots will seek a union-breaking referendum after the total calamito-catastropho-fyck of Brexit. We Shall See.
    The most recent poll shows a majority in favour of an early independence referendum.
    Fair dos. Good luck.
    Cheers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,906
    HYUFD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    It has been reported to have been made by advisers close to Boris but he has to win the Tory leadership first and promise a brilliant renegotiation with the EU with no backstop and no CU and no SM etc, if the EU say no then he can shift to a FTA for GB still leaving the CU and SM in GB and a referendum on the backstop in NI platform having safely been elected leader by Tory members and have a platform that would win a general election
    Any ideas as to what that platform might be? Cos I am none the wiser, and, more importantly, neither is he or anyone else.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    edited June 2019

    Quite a refreshing answer... https://t.co/irfwxllXD6

    — Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) June 18, 2019
    Have I managed to embed a tweet successfully?

    Yes, I have!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,512
    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    Did the UK, er, I mean GB, get a referendum on the GFA?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    What time are the votes tomorrow?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    Because of its uniquely complex history
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
    Boris Johnson really doesn't understand that the transition period is linked to a deal, and that without a deal there won't be a transition period?

    How can someone who is aspiring to be prime minister be so mind-blowingly ignorant?
    Ruth Davidson must be doing her nut.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,326
    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    state_go_away said:

    If the debate was a match at the cricket world cup then Boris would have got an uncharacteristic slow safe 25 before being bowled by Abdullah .
    Hunt would have put the bad balls away and made a solid 50 without anyone noticing .
    Rory would have got out for 0 attempting a weird new shot that left him sprawled on the ground
    The Saj would have got into an argument with his teammates berating them for poor fielding and in the heat of the bollocking getting them all to agree to some weird cliche about a buzzword nobody knows what it means
    Gove would have been drug tested.
    Maitless would have got her umpiring decisions overturned by the third umpire.

    Hunt won on a dodgy Duckworth lewis calculation

    Hunt meets the benchmark for behaving, looking and sounding like a PM.

    Boris will still win but he looks like compo out of last of the summer wine and just does not string a sentence together in the manner of a PM. Boris also has the problem of poor judgement which will be everyones problem if he becomes PM!
    Much like Mitt Romney met the benchmark for behaving, looking and sounding like a US President unlike Trump you mean.

    Unfortunately the oiks in the rustbelt Midwest did not agree and clearly need reeducating, as do the oiks who voted Leave here
    Trump has terrible approval ratings. The oiks in the Midwest may well have changed their mind when he runs again in 2020. The EC in 2016 was won in a handful of states by small margins. I suggest it looks harder for him than any incumbant before him with a reasonable economic backdrop (excluding the trade war which is impacting some states critical to Trump with tarriffs by China and EU on specific products from swing states).
    Fox today has Trump just 1% behind Buttigieg and Harris nationwide and 2% behind Warren, he trailed Biden and Sanders by wider margins but there is a long way to go yet. Indeed Reagan trailed Mondale by as much as 6% as late as October 1983 before winning easily the next year

    https://www.newsmax.com/politics/democrats-trump-poll-foxnews/2019/06/17/id/920802/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
    Point of fact: We will be in a worse trade position than Afghanistan with the EU. Afghanistan is a signatory of the Everything But Arms treaty, so like many other LDCs has tariff free access to the EU for most products:

    https://www.export.gov/article?id=Afghanistan-trade-agreements
    Oh, great. We'll be in a worse position than Afghanistan. Marvellous. Let's put that on the side of a bus.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    Did the UK, er, I mean GB, get a referendum on the GFA?

    Ireland did.

    And yes we should get one because the backstop is part of a WA which affects the whole of GB.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,724
    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    NI would not be getting a yes/no on Brexit but on its implementation. Reasons why only NI would be:

    1. Realpolitik to get the deal through parliament.
    2. Because they are the ones most impacted by the border and customs arrangements.
    3. Because if things go wrong there it could end up in civil war again.

    Given life isnt always perfectly fair I dont think it would be unreasonable.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    Because of its uniquely complex history
    If this whole Brexit farce has proven one thing, it is that England is uniquely complex. Let them have their vote. They’re special too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1141100411060924416
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    noneoftheabove said:

    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    NI would not be getting a yes/no on Brexit but on its implementation. Reasons why only NI would be:

    1. Realpolitik to get the deal through parliament.
    2. Because they are the ones most impacted by the border and customs arrangements.
    3. Because if things go wrong there it could end up in civil war again.

    Given life isnt always perfectly fair I dont think it would be unreasonable.
    All good points.

    But the rest of us will also be impacted by the WA, just as significantly. So we too should get a vote on the WA.

    I thought Brexiteers were in favour of the people having a say and all that. Why should people in NI get two goes at determining whether or not to Brexit and, if so, on what terms?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,906
    edited June 2019
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
    Boris Johnson really doesn't understand that the transition period is linked to a deal, and that without a deal there won't be a transition period?

    How can someone who is aspiring to be prime minister be so mind-blowingly ignorant?
    A PM is almost always a reaction to the previous one. So, we had someone who knew the minutiae inside out, but was utterly lacking in persuasion. And now we are going to get one who makes a virtue of not caring about pesky details.
    But, something, something, charisma, bluster, yikes! Marxist! October 31 is sure to sort it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,745
    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
    Boris Johnson really doesn't understand that the transition period is linked to a deal, and that without a deal there won't be a transition period?

    How can someone who is aspiring to be prime minister be so mind-blowingly ignorant?
    A PM is almost always a reaction to the previous one. So, we had someone who knew the minutiae inside out, but was utterly lacking in persuasion. And now we are going to get one who makes a virtue of not caring.
    But, something, something, charisma, bluster, yikes! Marxist! October 31 will have to do instead.
    I'm curious though. Can one get through a Oxford Classics degree without attention to detail?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The shine came off Boris pretty quickly tonight - with tougher encounters to come.

    Is grasp of detail is utterly crap.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    Because of its uniquely complex history
    And the rest of GB does not have a uniquely complex history? What about Scotland?

    Sorry: this is just typical of Brexiteer plans - if they can be called that. It's all Heath Robinson-ish: do this to to sort that problem out, then when another problem appears come up with some other vaguely plausible bollocks and so on ad infinitum, like a sort of Brexit Whack-A-Mole. But it all ends up as an incoherent mess which annoys even more people and stores up trouble for the future.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,869
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    The shine came off Boris pretty quickly tonight - with tougher encounters to come.

    Is grasp of detail is utterly crap.

    Tonight was all about a bar-room brawl atmosphere, though, figuratively speaking ; he does well in that, as did Javid.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,203
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn plans to use a speech in the coming days to outline the latest evolution in Labour’s Brexit policy – but is expected to stop well short of the clarion call for remain demanded by his deputy, Tom Watson.

    I am amazed how many stops they have managed to conjure up on the journey between something being on the table and it being what they actively call for.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited June 2019
    Boris' big downfall was Abdullah from Wotsit.

    Boris should have had the courage of his convictions and said "I don't like the niqab and burqa. We should tolerate it, but I cannot pretend to like it".

    Instead he was cowardly and timid. Not good.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,724
    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    NI would not be getting a yes/no on Brexit but on its implementation. Reasons why only NI would be:

    1. Realpolitik to get the deal through parliament.
    2. Because they are the ones most impacted by the border and customs arrangements.
    3. Because if things go wrong there it could end up in civil war again.

    Given life isnt always perfectly fair I dont think it would be unreasonable.
    All good points.

    But the rest of us will also be impacted by the WA, just as significantly. So we too should get a vote on the WA.

    I thought Brexiteers were in favour of the people having a say and all that. Why should people in NI get two goes at determining whether or not to Brexit and, if so, on what terms?
    People in the rest of UK are clearly not as significantly impacted as those in NI.

    I am not a Brexiteer, although think the best option starting from here is now the WA, preferably with customs union.

    As per previous answer NI wouldnt be getting a second go at determining whether to Brexit or not, or even deciding how to brexit, just an effective veto on the governments proposed Brexit.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,110
    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Fact checkers on Boris are having a field day. No one could survive on PB with these howlers, let alone as PM.

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1141063639903944704?s=19

    https://twitter.com/BBCRealityCheck/status/1141072037345202178?s=19

    We're doomed. Indy Scotland is going to need a Trump style wall to keep out refugee sassenachs.

    I asked this on the other thread, but it only excited a bit of nonsense about the miracles Boris was going to perform.

    Does Johnson really think there is going to be a transition period after No Deal, or is he being misrepresented here?
    No. David Davis regularly comes out with the same rubbish.

    None of them seem to realise that when Britain leaves without a deal, it will be - as far as the EU is concerned - a third country. No different in legal terms to Afghanistan. We will have less leverage than before and will be faced with the prospect of either putting on tariffs to protect some of our industries - but at a cost to consumers - or having no or low tariffs and probably destroying quite a lot of our industries and removing pretty much all incentives to enter into FTAs with us.

    And that's without getting into all the other problems that No Deal raises for us.

    Still, that's what we will likely get because the Tory party has decided to fetishise a date.
    Boris Johnson really doesn't understand that the transition period is linked to a deal, and that without a deal there won't be a transition period?

    How can someone who is aspiring to be prime minister be so mind-blowingly ignorant?
    A PM is almost always a reaction to the previous one. So, we had someone who knew the minutiae inside out, but was utterly lacking in persuasion. And now we are going to get one who makes a virtue of not caring about pesky details.
    But, something, something, charisma, bluster, yikes! Marxist! October 31 is sure to sort it.
    But the bloke apparently doesn't know - the day after his No Deal Brexit - whether we're going to carry on for a couple of years as though nothing had happened, or whether everything just stops. I wouldn't call that minutiae.

    This man was foreign secretary for the first 15 months of the Brexit process. How could he not know something so absolutely basic? No wonder we're in such an appalling mess, when it's been left in the hands of people like him.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Byronic said:

    That was monumentally boring. Which, I think, favours Boris. He is over another hurdle.

    Stewart underperformed. Beneath the phthisic Edwardian spectre, is a weirdly dull spy, and a phthisic Edwardian spectre. MEH

    The one over-performer was Saj. He has gained through the contest.

    I predict Boris will win but Saj will stay as Home Sec. The sadness is that Farage would have wiped them all out. Farage is now de facto prime minister, and I suspect Farage knows it.

    Farage is de facto PM how exactly? He is leader of a party that can’t even win a seat where they are 1/8 favourite. FFS.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,860
    edited June 2019
    More Boris fact-checking.

    https://twitter.com/davidmorrisml/status/1141064791332728832
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Cheer yourselves up with the radiant Katya Adler. She thought in the opinion of the EU they were all crap.

    I would have thought even the EU liked Rory Stewart who said he would accept the WA as is, backstop and all and ruled out No Deal?
    The EU do not want the backstop! It is there purely for Ireland. It gives NI a unique trade advantage over the rest of the EU and the UK. It allows NI to have their cake and eat it, which the EU spent a long time trying to stop happening.

    Allowing NI a referendum on the backstop would be a good policy, has Johnson actually suggested or is it just friends of/sources close to? Seems very unlikely it could be done by October, fortunately he has not tied himself to delivering that any more than T May promised to leave by March.
    If NI gets a referendum on the deal, why can't the rest of us?
    Because of its uniquely complex history
    And the rest of GB does not have a uniquely complex history? What about Scotland?

    Sorry: this is just typical of Brexiteer plans - if they can be called that. It's all Heath Robinson-ish: do this to to sort that problem out, then when another problem appears come up with some other vaguely plausible bollocks and so on ad infinitum, like a sort of Brexit Whack-A-Mole. But it all ends up as an incoherent mess which annoys even more people and stores up trouble for the future.
    Why store up trouble for the future when Boris can give you all your troubles right now?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I wasn't watching the whole thing, fortunately, but I've read the blogs and looked at a few excerpts.

    What an embarrassment. To think these are all present or recent Cabinet Ministers, and I'm a member of their party. The shame of it.

    PM Farage the best bet

    https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1141094684439273472?s=21

    He really is a sweaty helmet isn’t he?
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