Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously unde

2»

Comments

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Good stuff from Ed. Hitting his straps. The more they see of him, the more they like him.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    tim said:

    Hopefully only 18 months of this posturing PR twit left

    @JohnRentoul: It wd be fun to mock Cam, caught on his civil libs rhetoric, if it weren't so serious. Me for @IndyVoices http://t.co/XbnaZtZLCW

    Isn't at least part of the problem that some of these people cannot be deported? And that the control orders were likely to be struck down under the ECHR?

    The last Labour government was both ludicrously authoritarian and weak in letting undesirables into the country and failing to deport people and/or challenge the terrorist ideology animating such people. At least Abu Qatada has been deported but not enough has been done to challenge and shun those pursuing a frankly fascist ideology. If Labour get back in I don't expect them to do any better; they are too reluctant to speak truth about Islamist terror let alone do anything about it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    O/T:

    Have any PBers got their hands on an iPad Air? I saw the queues outside my local Apple Shop today.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Totally O/T - but I saw this article requesting Crowdfunding help for a toddlers book about democracy - Personally I think it sounds like a great idea so just highlighting... http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-independent-view-democracy-for-toddlers-37098.html
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:


    There will be two classes to travel - "standard" and "politburo"

    Travel where, and why?

    Everything will be One Nation. Your kids will go to the mandatory One Nation local school. You will be a guaranteed a job in your local One Nation Tractor Factory (Unite members only). BBC One Nation will fulfil all of your entertainment needs, and the One Nation Guardian will be delivered daily.

    Travel is for Toffs.
    You two really are getting hysterical.

    How long before we start seeing "I'm leaving the country if Labour win" posts that will be casually swept under the carpet I wonder
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:


    There will be two classes to travel - "standard" and "politburo"

    Travel where, and why?

    Everything will be One Nation. Your kids will go to the mandatory One Nation local school. You will be a guaranteed a job in your local One Nation Tractor Factory (Unite members only). BBC One Nation will fulfil all of your entertainment needs, and the One Nation Guardian will be delivered daily.

    Travel is for Toffs.
    You two really are getting hysterical.

    How long before we start seeing "I'm leaving the country if Labour win" posts that will be casually swept under the carpet I wonder
    We can add them to all those "I'm leaving London if Boris wins" posts on CiF.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    Lennon said:

    Totally O/T - but I saw this article requesting Crowdfunding help for a toddlers book about democracy - Personally I think it sounds like a great idea so just highlighting... http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-independent-view-democracy-for-toddlers-37098.html

    Libdems and democracy is a bit of an oxymoron
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Have any PBers got their hands on an iPad Air? I saw the queues outside my local Apple Shop today.

    I'm picking mine up tomorrow. 128gb wifi and 4G. A splurge.
    Are you selling your old one again?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    edited November 2013
    I just heard someone say in relation to the MD of Centrica not taking £1,500,000 bonus that theses incentives were important.

    Can someone explain why the MD of Centrica earning £3,500,000 needs a bonus to encourage their performance when someone earning £7 an hour cleaning the toilets at Heathrow airport doesn't?

    Surely wouldn't anyone would want an incentive bonus to clean the toilets at Heathrow but would happily waive it to be MD of Centrica with a salary of £3,500,000?
  • Ha, sounds like Mr. T provides the same level of support to Apple as Brown did to Nokia (although for less destructive reasons).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Freggles said:


    How long before we start seeing "I'm leaving the country if Labour win" posts that will be casually swept under the carpet I wonder

    Why would anyone leave? It's going to be great.

    Price controls, wage controls, confiscated land. Who wouldn't want to stay for that?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Scott_P said:

    Freggles said:


    How long before we start seeing "I'm leaving the country if Labour win" posts that will be casually swept under the carpet I wonder

    Why would anyone leave? It's going to be great.

    Price controls, wage controls, confiscated land. Who wouldn't want to stay for that?
    I see the PB Tory hysteria has kicked in. Shades of Andrew Lloyd Webber in 1997.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    "The PB Tories have threatened to leave the UK if Ed gets in."












    That was a party political broadcast for the Labour Party.




  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    Fascinating figures tweeted by OGH earlier today:

    "Ladbrokes http://bit.ly/c5gpH6 latest seat lines for GE2015 LAB 307.5 CON 275.5 LD 37.5"

    So punters think combined Lab and LD seats will only be 19 more than 326 at present.

    twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/398393229533401088
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "A bookmaker makes Boston and Skegness the joint favourite constituency to be chosen by Nigel Farage for the 2015 General Election campaign.

    Paddy Power is offering odds on where the UKIP leader will stand at the next election – with Boston and Skegness neck and neck with Folkestone and Hythe in Kent, both on 9/2.

    Farage visited Boston in the run up to May’s county council elections and features on the panel of BBC’s Question Time when it comes to Boston High School tonight.

    Punters can also get odds of 5/1 on North Thanet and South Thanet – both also in Kent."


    http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/bookie-makes-boston-joint-favourite-general-election-choice-for-nigel-farage-1-5661628
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Bobajob said:

    SeanT said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Easterross @Fitalass FPT

    Do they put something in the water in Scotland? Why is it that the PB McTories are more optimistic than the PB Tories despite not actually existing (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    Actually the latest polls imply something of a Lazarus-like comeback for the Scots Tories. They're not jumping around, but they have emerged from the tomb.

    If and when Salmond loses his referendum, I wonder if they might enjoy a proper revival - there must surely be a lot of Tartan Tories who are now, for various reasons, lending their votes to the SNP. But once the referendum is lost, if it is lost, the SNP will - I am sure, lose some lustre, especially at Westminster - and the Scots Tories may gain.
    You'll be telling me you believe in unicorns next

    Easier to believe in Unicorns than believing Labour can learn to live within our means.

    spend baby spend.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Floater said:


    Easier to believe in Unicorns than believing Labour can learn to live within our means.

    spend baby spend.

    I believe in One Nation unicorns
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    SeanT said:

    I seem to be replying to myself when I am in fact trying to reply to Bobajob, a person who may not even exist anyway. This may the very definition of early onset Alzheimer's.

    I think therefore I am.

    In this case I think you are right, mostly. He is soft-left.

    But I can't imagine there will be an outpouring of grief on the Left, as most lefties know that Miliband is not a hard leftie. Just a soft-left metro liberal who pleases the leftie London "rich" elite and manages not to alienate the North and Midlands. That's about it. The Tories have managed to position themselves as the party that stands up for the energy companies and the rail companies, for reasons known only to the inept spods in charge of their PR strategy.

    Meanwhile, I can see from your posts in recent times that you too are starting to take to Ed.

    I keep telling you Sean – you put the boy into Primrose Hill and eventually Primrose Hill gets into the boy.


  • Cyclefree said:

    tim said:

    Hopefully only 18 months of this posturing PR twit left

    @JohnRentoul: It wd be fun to mock Cam, caught on his civil libs rhetoric, if it weren't so serious. Me for @IndyVoices http://t.co/XbnaZtZLCW

    Isn't at least part of the problem that some of these people cannot be deported? And that the control orders were likely to be struck down under the ECHR?

    The last Labour government was both ludicrously authoritarian and weak in letting undesirables into the country and failing to deport people and/or challenge the terrorist ideology animating such people. At least Abu Qatada has been deported but not enough has been done to challenge and shun those pursuing a frankly fascist ideology. If Labour get back in I don't expect them to do any better; they are too reluctant to speak truth about Islamist terror let alone do anything about it.
    The Rentoul piece is idiotic, because it would be much 'safer' to intern terrorist suspects without trial. The government should be criticised not for watering down control orders, but for failing to scrap restraints on the liberty of British subjects who have not been convicted of an offence by a court of law. MPs like McFadden are far more dangerous in the long run to a free society than any person subject to a TPIM.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited November 2013
    SeanT said:

    If Ed Miliband makes it, either one side or the other of British politics is going to be severely dismayed. i.e. if he turns out to be as *socialist* as he promises, the right will have conniptions, esp the tabloids. Much good it will do them.

    OTOH if he turns out to be another quasi-socialist blowhard who merely tinkers with the Thatcherite settlement (like Brown) then it will be the Left who will chuck metaphorical petrol bombs.

    There's every indication that he'll very rapidly be despised by all sides. He's already made ludicrous hostages to fortune, but, even worse than that, there's a substantial risk that he actually believes in his 'Predator vs Producer' garbage or thinks he really can wave a wand and make our energy prices even lower than they currently are (the second lowest in Western Europe). So he'll blunder in and interfere, get in a total mess, lose business confidence, and end up having to slash spending, raise taxes, and undo all the populist nonsense. But, of course, it takes a long time to regain confidence once it's lost.

    It won't end well.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    SeanT said:

    If Ed Miliband makes it, either one side or the other of British politics is going to be severely dismayed. i.e. if he turns out to be as *socialist* as he promises, the right will have conniptions, esp the tabloids. Much good it will do them.

    OTOH if he turns out to be another quasi-socialist blowhard who merely tinkers with the Thatcherite settlement (like Brown) then it will be the Left who will chuck metaphorical petrol bombs.

    There's every indication that he'll very rapidly be despised by all sides. He's already made ludicrous hostages to fortune, but, even worse than that, there's a substantial risk that he actually believes in his 'Predator vs Producer' garbage or thinks he really can wave a wand and make our energy prices even lower than they currently are (the second lowest in Western Europe). So he'll blunder in and interfere, get in a total mess, lose business confidence, and end up having to slash spending, raise taxes, and undo all the populist nonsense. But, of course, it takes a long time to regain confidence once it's lost.

    It won't end well.
    A touch hyperbolic Richard. Give him a chance, you might like him.
  • Bobajob said:

    A touch hyperbolic Richard. Give him a chance, you might like him.

    I do like him, actually. He comes over as a nice and quite funny guy, just more suited to being a politics lecturer in a minor university than Prime Minister.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    How much dishonesty and incompetence is Cameron prepared to tolerate before he gives IDS his marching orders? The man's a serial liar and chronically incompetent.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Possibly. But whatever it is under Balls and Miliband it will be higher. Much of it off balance sheet.
    tim said:

    Floater said:

    Bobajob said:

    SeanT said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Easterross @Fitalass FPT

    Do they put something in the water in Scotland? Why is it that the PB McTories are more optimistic than the PB Tories despite not actually existing (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    Actually the latest polls imply something of a Lazarus-like comeback for the Scots Tories. They're not jumping around, but they have emerged from the tomb.

    If and when Salmond loses his referendum, I wonder if they might enjoy a proper revival - there must surely be a lot of Tartan Tories who are now, for various reasons, lending their votes to the SNP. But once the referendum is lost, if it is lost, the SNP will - I am sure, lose some lustre, especially at Westminster - and the Scots Tories may gain.
    You'll be telling me you believe in unicorns next

    Easier to believe in Unicorns than believing Labour can learn to live within our means.

    spend baby spend.
    You realise Osborne is spending more than Labour did?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nicholaswatt: Shaun Woodward to stand down as MP for St Helens South and Whiston at 2015 election. Warm praise for @Ed_Miliband as One Nation leader
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating threader. My only response is this: I just realised that during my Zambia trip, which ended 6am this morning, I took twelve flights in twelve days - six jets, five light aircraft, one helicopter.

    Can any pb-er beat that for frantic, stupid, overly wearying travel insanity?

    Yes, the initial PS4 internal reveal. I was part of a team that visited 14 destinations in 17 days across Europe, Japan/Asia and the US. Absolutely awful.

    Started in Tokyo, ended in Santa Monica. Via Seoul (air), Hong Kong (air), Singapore (air), Amsterdam (air), Runcorn (air/train), Cambridge (train), London (train), New York (air), Seattle (air), Oregon (air), LA (air), San Diego (car).

    All because I am part of the ATG. :(
    You must have really pissed off the scheduler!

    Why would they fly you from Seattle to Oregon and then make you drive to San Diego?
  • £70,000 a year benefit claimants.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10433547/Benefit-cap-dozens-were-receiving-equivalent-of-70000-salary-year.html

    That's what the public hear and it grinds their gears much more than fuel bills
  • tim said:

    Camerons judgement on who he appoints is fatally flawed

    Says the supporter of a party which unanimously appointed Gordon Brown as leader.

    As usual, the sheer chutzpah and hypocrisy of Labour supporters is impressive.
  • Bookies and gamblers underestimated Brown. Currently they overestimate EdM .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelLCrick: Shaun Woodward standing down as Lab MP in 2015. After he defected in 1998, Tories hated him while Lab never took him to their hearts either
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Hopefully only 18 months of this posturing PR twit left

    @JohnRentoul: It wd be fun to mock Cam, caught on his civil libs rhetoric, if it weren't so serious. Me for @IndyVoices http://t.co/XbnaZtZLCW

    Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

    (BenF may have been a rum cove, but he was quite perceptive at times)
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Hmmm... a kitten or a cyclist. Tough call but I'd vote for the latter.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Bobajob said:

    A touch hyperbolic Richard. Give him a chance, you might like him.

    I do like him, actually. He comes over as a nice and quite funny guy, just more suited to being a politics lecturer in a minor university than Prime Minister.
    Richard - fair enough.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelLCrick: Shaun Woodward standing down as Lab MP in 2015. After he defected in 1998, Tories hated him while Lab never took him to their hearts either

    Maybe he'll lend Tristam his butler.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    I just heard someone say in relation to the MD of Centrica not taking £1,500,000 bonus that theses incentives were important.

    Can someone explain why the MD of Centrica earning £3,500,000 needs a bonus to encourage their performance when someone earning £7 an hour cleaning the toilets at Heathrow airport doesn't?

    Surely wouldn't anyone would want an incentive bonus to clean the toilets at Heathrow but would happily waive it to be MD of Centrica with a salary of £3,500,000?

    The technical answer involves the principal-agent problem and the tyranny of benchmarking.

    The real answer is that it is up to shareholders how much their management are paid & they choose not to exercise that decision making power.

    The behaviour of our senior management class over the last 10-5 years has been disgraceful.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    SeanT said:

    If Ed Miliband makes it, either one side or the other of British politics is going to be severely dismayed. i.e. if he turns out to be as *socialist* as he promises, the right will have conniptions, esp the tabloids. Much good it will do them.

    OTOH if he turns out to be another quasi-socialist blowhard who merely tinkers with the Thatcherite settlement (like Brown) then it will be the Left who will chuck metaphorical petrol bombs.

    He'll blunder in and interfere, get in a total mess, lose business confidence, and end up having to slash spending, raise taxes, and undo all the populist nonsense. But, of course, it takes a long time to regain confidence once it's lost.
    Francois Hollande just emailed in to ask what on earth is wrong with that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    Hopefully only 18 months of this posturing PR twit left

    @JohnRentoul: It wd be fun to mock Cam, caught on his civil libs rhetoric, if it weren't so serious. Me for @IndyVoices http://t.co/XbnaZtZLCW

    Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

    (BenF may have been a rum cove, but he was quite perceptive at times)
    Dave has managed to sacrifice some liberty but not enough to stop the "terrorists" going free.
    Of course you could be arguing that the blokes who have absconded shouldnt be tracked down because they are innocent, which would at least be an intellectually coherent position.
    Deeming them worth restricting but then deliberately increasing their ability to escape seems to be a pointless exercise all round
    I don't know enough about the specifics of the case (e.g. whether the guy in question is a native Brit or not - I think I read somewhere that he is Somali).

    Fundamentally, though, an immigrant who is not prepared to sign up to the basic standards of our society (i.e. rule of law, not blowing up innocent people, rights for women, etc) should be politely shown the door. The human rights of the general population outweigh the human rights of the individual.

    As for native Brits who fall into the same camp: more difficult. There should be a process whereby highly sensitive evidence can be presented - but this has issues in terms of justice and risks corruption of the legal system: (there was a very good book I read a few years ago about a couple of cases in the US where the Feds behaved extremely badly over about 30 years on this point).

    But equally, I am uncomfortable with restricting peoples freedom of movement unless they have had the opportunity to defend themselves in court.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    David Cameron 'Insane' For Pledging To Stay In EU, Warns Lord Digby Jones

    David Cameron has been branded "insane" for pledging to stay in the European Union regardless of how well his attempts to claw back powers from Brussels go.

    Lord Digby Jones, former trade minister under Gordon Brown, said: "The tactic of promising to stay in the EU regardless of what the Prime Minister can negotiate is insane. When did anyone start negotiations with 'It’s OK, we don’t mean it, we will do what you want anyway' as an opening gambit?"

    Writing in the Times, the peer warned that the Prime Minister was unlikely to get anything beyond minor changes to Britain's relationship with the European Union, writing: ""the chances of certain big countries changing things is nil".

    Lord Jones of Birmingham insisted that the UK should be ready to leave the political bloc, calling for it to be put "on the negotiating table". This comes as research suggested that 3,580 new EU rules have come in under David Cameron's premiership and that EU rules cost £27.4 billion a year.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/11/07/david-cameron-insane-eu_n_4231373.html
    Farage is going to have all his work done for him by the incompetent fops come the EU elections. Just like what happened in the May local elections. Getting the kippers down well below 5% looks like wishful thinking even this far out from 2015.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    Deeming them worth restricting but then deliberately increasing their ability to escape seems to be a pointless exercise all round

    Isn't that exactly what the Blair government did when it replaced internment without trial with non-derogating control orders?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    @MilkShake

    "According to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), 18,024 households have had their benefits cut since the policy was implemented in April. "

    But we've just established you can't believe a word IDS or his department say. Google has over 8,000,000 references to IDS lying, Here's one at random

    http://mikesivier.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/the-lies-the-cost-the-hardship-the-price-we-all-pay-for-iain-duncan-smith/
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Roger said:

    @MilkShake

    "According to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), 18,024 households have had their benefits cut since the policy was implemented in April. "

    But we've just established you can't believe a word IDS or his department say. Google has over 8,000,000 references to IDS lying, Here's one at random

    http://mikesivier.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/the-lies-the-cost-the-hardship-the-price-we-all-pay-for-iain-duncan-smith/

    How do they compare to dodgy dossiers?

    Was Gordon 100% truthful with double and triple counting.

    I could go on and on and on and on and on.

  • Charles said:

    As for native Brits who fall into the same camp: more difficult. There should be a process whereby highly sensitive evidence can be presented - but this has issues in terms of justice and risks corruption of the legal system: (there was a very good book I read a few years ago about a couple of cases in the US where the Feds behaved extremely badly over about 30 years on this point).

    But equally, I am uncomfortable with restricting peoples freedom of movement unless they have had the opportunity to defend themselves in court.

    A hopeless mass of confusion.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    @politicshome: The polls suggest the public aren’t as scandalised by Falkirk as the Tories might hope, writes @smashmore_PH: http://t.co/Gduwo1Ud6F

    Which everyone outside the PB Tories knew

    Scotland may have more interest in it, you know, Falkirk having a geographic position north of the border.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    gav ‏@gavtheukip 6 Nov

    Tony Blair, a £400,000 payday and a luxury stay at taxpayers’ expense via @Telegraph http://fw.to/4sEQY2B
  • New Thread
  • The pear-shaped oaf has made a career of spouting vainglorious and hubristic rot on his frequent taxpayer funded junkets overseas.
    Who can forget his Celtic Lion oration at Harvard in 2008 or his great Catalan eulogy to the mighty euro in 2009 ?

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Sad news for self proclaimed fascist lunatics and their idols.
    Jewish Daily Forward ‏@jdforward 50m

    Signore "Bunga-bunga" Berlusconi defends hounded 'like the Jews' remark http://jd.fo/r1ImV
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited November 2013
    SeanT said:

    OTOH if he turns out to be another quasi-socialist blowhard who merely tinkers with the Thatcherite settlement (like Brown) then it will be the Left who will chuck metaphorical petrol bombs.

    Oh, Gosh: Not very bright are you son....

    In 1989^* 1990 Richard [Lord] Layard reluctantly posited that "Fatcha'" had increased the long-term UK growth rate from 2.5%p.a. to 2.75".* Your favourite one-eyed Scots-[MODERATED] has reduced it to 2.25%. Think about the cumulative effect of that destruction of growth and the legacy that it will leave....

    * LSE: Wednesday 12-13:00, Macro-Economics (Second-year).

    ^* Probably drunk and tired. [ME,at the time. Not Dickie!] Sir Richard was not in the Charles Goodhart league....
This discussion has been closed.