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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously unde

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited November 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

About once a month, it seems, I get called by a journalist who wants to be know whether the general election betting prices reflect over-optimism by Tory supporters about their party’s projects. What had happened last time he asked?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited November 2013
    Ahhh .... but does the "wishful thinking" extend to Bedford ?!?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited November 2013
    And yet Labour had a shocking result in % terms - their % of the vote was closer to the Lib Dems than the Tories.

    25% for CON majority is a massive mispricing.
  • TheSheikofShakeTheSheikofShake Posts: 83
    The vote that collapsed on the big day was the LD "we want a change" vote.

    Regularly polling 28% even up until 24 hours before the election. On the big day they polled 23%.

    That's what happens when your support is thought to be quite young.

    Look at who's piling that lot up this time and you can see who is probably being overstated.
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Why would you bet on your own team? Surely, if you were rich, and wanted to stay that way, you would bet Labour on the grounds that your business was likely to be trashed, but at least you would have your winnings.

    There is an assumption that Tories are rich. Mandelson, Blair, Bobajob, Surbiton, Roger?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If you are a monied tory, it surely makes sense to bet against a tory majority. All day long. Especially now that labour may actually have some socialist teeth.

    The resulting winnings might at least partially offset your higher tax bill, should LenEd win.

    In fact I'm surprised some financial advisers don't recommend it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Breton riots via Al Beeb.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24831682

    Short video clip.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited November 2013
    I don't think the 'Tories have more money and push the price up' theory really holds. The full story was:

    Betfair: Con 319.5-321, Lab 217.5-220, LD 82.5-85.5
    Extrabet: Con 316-321, Lab 218-223, LD 78-82
    SPIN: Con 317-322, Lab 214-210, LD 78-82

    So there was just as much over-estimation of the LD's prospects as of the Tories'. The polling had of course been very volatile following the Cleggasm (wow, what a world away that feels like now!), so this was perhaps understandable.

    The various academic models also tended to over-estimate LibDem performance, at the expense of both Con and (especially) Lab:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/31/the-2010-uns-proportional-swing-and-all-that…/

    Given the disparities between the polling/forecasts/betting markets even on the eve of the election, let alone 18 months ahead, it is foolish to project an excessive degree of confidence into any forecast or polling published today. Over-confidence in predictions is a very common mistake; the truth is that we just don't know (JackW apart, of course!).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Paul Waugh: This is it. Angry GCHQ chief Lobban reveals terror 'chat' in South Asia and elsewhere on UK spy techniques leaked by Guardian.

    PoliticsHome: GCHQ chief Iain Lobban says vast media coverage of Snowden NSA files "will make our job far, far harder for years to come"

    The knives are out now.....'our adversaries are rubbing their hands with glee, Al Qaida are lapping it up.....'
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    The spreads overestimated Cameron for years
    As did PB

    Nice edit, tim. I was about to make the obvious jibe.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    In what competition had Ed won political speech of the year? Can't find it online. Spectator?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    It seems to me that trying to second guess the results of the next election some 18 months out is a fools errand except for those of the PB community who are seasoned gamblers and fully understand the principles of laying bets, hedging bets etc.

    My gut reaction remains that the GE2015 is David Cameron's to lose not Ed Miliband's to win. I think the UKIP threat is vastly overstated viz-a-viz the General election. The big unknown remains about what will happen to the LibDems and whether we are looking at moving back to basically a 2-party contest across the country with a few genuine 3-way contests and the joker in the pack is Scotland and Wales and how the Nationalist vote plays out.

    The Scottish Referendum result next September potentially breaks the magic hold of the SNP over Scots but equally it could herald the start of the sort of long-term decline the Scottish Tories went into in 1979, particularly if over the next 15 months Ed and the Labour front bench make what is increasingly seen as patronising anti-Scottish remarks.

    Perhaps the thing which will really determine the result of the next election is turnout. I would expect far more 2010 LibDems unhappy with the party now to stay at home than is being recognised right now. Those who were previously Labour will probably return to Labour but some who were previously Tory may very well return to vote Tory and this could be especially important in Scotland and parts of the South of England where Con to LibDem switchers led to LibDem gains, not tactical voting by ex-Labour voters.

    Lots can happen which is currently unforeseen. Tim could suffer from extended writer's cramp after all and not reach 20,000 postings by Christmas :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    You could also write the same piece about political gamblers seriously underestimating the incumbent government.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Another OGH thread about a Con maj - i.e. the least likely of the outcomes.

    Lab maj second least likely.

    Surely who gets the most seats is priority no 1 for any party ?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bobajob said:

    In what competition had Ed won political speech of the year? Can't find it online. Spectator?

    Which speech - the love letter to his Marxist dad who hated Britain ?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Breton riots - Telegraph coverage.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/10423888/French-protesters-say-Brittany-will-be-Francois-Hollandes-cemetery.html
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Surely who gets the most seats is priority no 1 for any party ?

    Labour most seats is surely the trade to get on, but not now. In the run up to the election there are bound to be a few rogue polls showing the tories doing well - that will be the time to get on lab most seats.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @Easterross @Fitalass FPT

    Do they put something in the water in Scotland? Why is it that the PB McTories are more optimistic than the PB Tories despite not actually existing (there are zero Tories in Scotland)
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Spectator Parliamentarian Of The Year Awards
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/11/parliamentarian-of-year-awards-2013-the-winners/
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    TGOHF said:

    Bobajob said:

    In what competition had Ed won political speech of the year? Can't find it online. Spectator?

    Which speech - the love letter to his Marxist dad who hated Britain ?
    His conference speech I think, not sure

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    SeanT said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Easterross @Fitalass FPT

    Do they put something in the water in Scotland? Why is it that the PB McTories are more optimistic than the PB Tories despite not actually existing (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    Actually the latest polls imply something of a Lazarus-like comeback for the Scots Tories. They're not jumping around, but they have emerged from the tomb.

    If and when Salmond loses his referendum, I wonder if they might enjoy a proper revival - there must surely be a lot of Tartan Tories who are now, for various reasons, lending their votes to the SNP. But once the referendum is lost, if it is lost, the SNP will - I am sure, lose some lustre, especially at Westminster - and the Scots Tories may gain.
    You'll be telling me you believe in unicorns next

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    SeanT said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Easterross @Fitalass FPT

    Do they put something in the water in Scotland? Why is it that the PB McTories are more optimistic than the PB Tories despite not actually existing (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    Actually the latest polls imply something of a Lazarus-like comeback for the Scots Tories. They're not jumping around, but they have emerged from the tomb.

    If and when Salmond loses his referendum, I wonder if they might enjoy a proper revival - there must surely be a lot of Tartan Tories who are now, for various reasons, lending their votes to the SNP. But once the referendum is lost, if it is lost, the SNP will - I am sure, lose some lustre, especially at Westminster - and the Scots Tories may gain.
    The Lord Ashcroft mega poll on Scottish Westminster VI had the Conservatives at 15% down on their 2010 %
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Paul Waugh: This is it. Angry GCHQ chief Lobban reveals terror 'chat' in South Asia and elsewhere on UK spy techniques leaked by Guardian.

    PoliticsHome: GCHQ chief Iain Lobban says vast media coverage of Snowden NSA files "will make our job far, far harder for years to come"

    The knives are out now.....'our adversaries are rubbing their hands with glee, Al Qaida are lapping it up.....'

    The Guardian is now looking rather wobbly, and is not far from disaster.
    Waugh: "MI6 Sawers most withering verdict on Guardian: re security risks of publishing they're "not particularly well placed to make that judgement"

    Next terrorist outrage (sadly 'when' not 'if') - did the Guardian leaks inhibit our ability to stop this?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    I think the conservatives could gain seats in Scotland actually.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Bobajob said:

    (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    You mean apart from the 412,000 that voted Conservative at the last GE?

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the conservatives could gain seats in Scotland actually.

    Are these the same seats Easteross forecast that they would gain in 2010 ?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the conservatives could gain seats in Scotland actually.

    They could realistically double the number of seats.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CarlottaVance said:

    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Paul Waugh: This is it. Angry GCHQ chief Lobban reveals terror 'chat' in South Asia and elsewhere on UK spy techniques leaked by Guardian.

    PoliticsHome: GCHQ chief Iain Lobban says vast media coverage of Snowden NSA files "will make our job far, far harder for years to come"

    The knives are out now.....'our adversaries are rubbing their hands with glee, Al Qaida are lapping it up.....'

    The Guardian is now looking rather wobbly, and is not far from disaster.
    Waugh: "MI6 Sawers most withering verdict on Guardian: re security risks of publishing they're "not particularly well placed to make that judgement"

    Next terrorist outrage (sadly 'when' not 'if') - did the Guardian leaks inhibit our ability to stop this?
    Looks like Greenwald has done a number on them.

    In out one big story - probably set up in advance then off to run his own websh1te on the back of it.

    Were the Guardian "duped" like Ed in Falkirk or complicit - like Ed in Falkirk ?



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited November 2013
    RichardNabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the conservatives could gain seats in Scotland actually.

    They could realistically double the number of seats.
    MarkSenior said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the conservatives could gain seats in Scotland actually.

    Are these the same seats Easteross forecast that they would gain in 2010 ?
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine CON gain 2015.
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk too perhaps.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The wild Scottish seat next time is North East Fife. No one looks to be in a good position to win it, but someone must.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    The wild Scottish seat next time is North East Fife. No one looks to be in a good position to win it, but someone must.

    Ming the Merciless hold. But I wouldn't touch it with a betting bargepole.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    The wild Scottish seat next time is North East Fife. No one looks to be in a good position to win it, but someone must.

    Ming the Merciless hold. But I wouldn't touch it with a betting bargepole.
    Ming isnt standing.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Twitter opens at $46.40 - up 78.5% - is this Cable or GO's fault ?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Twitter opens at $46.40 - up 78.5% - is this Cable or GO's fault ?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Ooh so no incumbency...

    The Nats might take it from 4th !
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    The wild Scottish seat next time is North East Fife. No one looks to be in a good position to win it, but someone must.

    Ming the Merciless hold. But I wouldn't touch it with a betting bargepole.
    I thought Ming was standing down next GE.

    [edit] - as pointed out above.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    The wild Scottish seat next time is North East Fife. No one looks to be in a good position to win it, but someone must.

    Ming the Merciless hold. But I wouldn't touch it with a betting bargepole.
    Menzies Campbell is standing down.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    antifrank said:

    The wild Scottish seat next time is North East Fife. No one looks to be in a good position to win it, but someone must.

    The bookies really ought to put up a market on that one.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As I said, it's a fun seat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Ooh so no incumbency...

    The Nats might take it from 4th !

    They took the Scottish Parliament constituency (I know, not the same!) from 3rd.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    RichardNabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    The wild Scottish seat next time is North East Fife. No one looks to be in a good position to win it, but someone must.

    The bookies really ought to put up a market on that one.
    And Torbay if you're lurking Shadsy ;)
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    dr_spyn said:

    Breton riots - Telegraph coverage.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/10423888/French-protesters-say-Brittany-will-be-Francois-Hollandes-cemetery.html

    The government had hoped to quash revolt by “suspending” until January the tax, aimed at encouraging environmentally friendly commercial transport by slapping new levies on vehicles transporting goods weighing over 3.5 tonnes.

    Have I understood this correctly? They're suggesting that two lorries carrying 2 tonnes each would be more environmentally friendly than one carrying 4 tonnes?

    In terms of damage to the roads, possibly. In terms of emissions, probably not.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    You mean apart from the 412,000 that voted Conservative at the last GE?

    A myth. If you take 412,000 off that figure you will be presented with the accurate number of Tories in Scotland.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

    My guess is that the Lib Dems will hold on as long as they have a reasonably well known local councillor candidate but I think the tories will be second and it might be very close.
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Bobajob said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    You mean apart from the 412,000 that voted Conservative at the last GE?

    A myth. If you take 412,000 off that figure you will be presented with the accurate number of Tories in Scotland.

    Are you using 'Leverage' to get your figures?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

    My guess is that the Lib Dems will hold on as long as they have a reasonably well known local councillor candidate but I think the tories will be second and it might be very close.
    I think there's a good chance the Tories will get a lower voteshare in 2015 than in 2010.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Argyll & Bute is another Scottish cracker. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argyll_and_Bute_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    I think it is very unlikely that the Lib Dems will hold this but where will their votes go? All 3 of the other parties are in some sort of contention.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    £70k a year on benefits - under Labour.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10433547/Benefit-cap-dozens-were-receiving-equivalent-of-70000-a-year.html
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Bloody sheep running off with jobs, not voting for Len n' Ed now wrecking graveyards.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-24842099
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TGOHF

    The benefit cap is the centerpiece of welfare reform? Have they totally given up on Universal Credit?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

    My guess is that the Lib Dems will hold on as long as they have a reasonably well known local councillor candidate but I think the tories will be second and it might be very close.
    I think there's a good chance the Tories will get a lower voteshare in 2015 than in 2010.
    I think you are underestimating the collapse of the Scottish Liberals. St Andrews is a prosperous town with a lot of new high value (for Scotland) housing. I think the tory vote will increase but Ming had a real grip on this seat and the Lib Dems can fall a long way without losing.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

    My guess is that the Lib Dems will hold on as long as they have a reasonably well known local councillor candidate but I think the tories will be second and it might be very close.
    2012 local election results for the wards making up the constituency were roughly
    LD 8,300 SNP 6,200 Con 4,200 Lab 3,500 and an Independent in Cuppar who took 1,556 votes . His 2nd preference split 2:1:1:1 in favour of Lib Dems
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

    My guess is that the Lib Dems will hold on as long as they have a reasonably well known local councillor candidate but I think the tories will be second and it might be very close.
    I think there's a good chance the Tories will get a lower voteshare in 2015 than in 2010.
    I think you are underestimating the collapse of the Scottish Liberals. St Andrews is a prosperous town with a lot of new high value (for Scotland) housing. I think the tory vote will increase but Ming had a real grip on this seat and the Lib Dems can fall a long way without losing.
    I think you are vastly overestimating the Tory chances if you think they are the most likely contenders for this seat. It's much more likely to be LD V SNP (as the 2011 and 2012 election results show).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    edited November 2013
    SeanT said:

    Fascinating threader. My only response is this: I just realised that during my Zambia trip, which ended 6am this morning, I took twelve flights in twelve days - six jets, five light aircraft, one helicopter.

    Can any pb-er beat that for frantic, stupid, overly wearying travel insanity?

    Yes, the initial PS4 internal reveal. I was part of a team that visited 14 destinations in 17 days across Europe, Japan/Asia and the US. Absolutely awful.

    Started in Tokyo, ended in Santa Monica. Via Seoul (air), Hong Kong (air), Singapore (air), Amsterdam (air), Runcorn (air/train), Cambridge (train), London (train), New York (air), Seattle (air), Oregon (air), LA (air), San Diego (car).

    All because I am part of the ATG. :(
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

    My guess is that the Lib Dems will hold on as long as they have a reasonably well known local councillor candidate but I think the tories will be second and it might be very close.
    I think there's a good chance the Tories will get a lower voteshare in 2015 than in 2010.
    I think you are underestimating the collapse of the Scottish Liberals. St Andrews is a prosperous town with a lot of new high value (for Scotland) housing. I think the tory vote will increase but Ming had a real grip on this seat and the Lib Dems can fall a long way without losing.
    I think you are vastly overestimating the Tory chances if you think they are the most likely contenders for this seat. It's much more likely to be LD V SNP (as the 2011 and 2012 election results show).
    As I say I think the Lib Dems will win it but I worked in Cupar for a lot of years. There are a lot of tories in that area who had a very high regard for Ming and rightly so. The Lib Dems worked extremely hard on the local council seats, particularly in the days when NE Fife was its own council and not subsumed under Fife.

    If a lot of those votes are no longer going to the Lib Dems I think some will go back to the tories. Much will depend on how SNP supporters feel after the referendum.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Michael Crick: "Pro-union indy TV co Reel News accuse BBC of "breach of copyright" over use without permission of footage of Unite demo angst blacklisting."

    More Leverage?

    http://reelnews.co.uk/reel-news-statement-on-bbc-copyright-abuse-7-11-13/
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Ed Milliband winning the Political Speech of the year.
    Having seen most of the leaders conference speeches, I'd probably say his was the best..... Of a bad bunch.
    If that is truly the best of the year, though, it just shows what a bunch of boring b'stards the rest of 'em must have been.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Ed's Speccie award speech:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2y8x1_0OU8&feature=youtu.be

    Rather good.....amazing what he can do when Balls does not have to pre-clear it....
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Bobajob said:

    @Easterross @Fitalass FPT

    Do they put something in the water in Scotland? Why is it that the PB McTories are more optimistic than the PB Tories despite not actually existing (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    Why do you persist in talking utter guff! At the 2010 General election for every 6 people who voted SNP, 5 voted Tory. At the Dunfermline by-election last month the Tory share of the vote INCREASED by 1%. In the Borders Council By-election last month, the Tories gubbed the LibDem who was expected by the PB community to take the seat.

    The Tory vote in Scotland is slowly recovering. Ming Campbell took 3 attempts to win NE Fife from Barry Henderson.

    In 2010 there was a 10% swing from the SNP to the Tories in Alex Salmond's old seat and the SNP majority FELL by 7,810 to just over 4,000.

    In 2010 there was a 5% swing from the LibDems to the Tories in Sir Robert Smith's West Aberdeenshire seat and the LibDem majority HALVED from 7,400 to 3,700.

    There are a handful of seats in 2015 where the Scottish Tories have a real chance.

    Incidentally in NE Fife in 2010 there was a 5% swing from Sir Ming Campbell to the Tories and his majority in 2005 of 12,500 fell to 9000.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fife North East voters do have the nice position that they can truly vote with their 'hearts' as the tactical situation there is completely unknown to be perfectly honest.

    It looks like a Lib Dem V SNP battle to me. Cant see Tories or Labour getting a winnable vote share.

    My guess is that the Lib Dems will hold on as long as they have a reasonably well known local councillor candidate but I think the tories will be second and it might be very close.
    I think there's a good chance the Tories will get a lower voteshare in 2015 than in 2010.
    I think you are underestimating the collapse of the Scottish Liberals. St Andrews is a prosperous town with a lot of new high value (for Scotland) housing. I think the tory vote will increase but Ming had a real grip on this seat and the Lib Dems can fall a long way without losing.
    My guess is that the Lib Dems will go hell for leather between now and the election, and during the campaign, to distance themselves from the Tories and to encourage anti-Tory tactical voting in seats where they have a chance of winning. It's hard to say how effective this will be, especially in Scotland where the SNP are in contention, but post-Eastleigh I think predictions of widespread Lib Dem collapse in seats where they are serious contenders are wide of the mark.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    DavidL said:

    There are a lot of tories in that area who had a very high regard for Ming and rightly so. The Lib Dems worked extremely hard on the local council seats, particularly in the days when NE Fife was its own council and not subsumed under Fife.

    If a lot of those votes are no longer going to the Lib Dems I think some will go back to the tories.

    Why didnt they go to the Tories when the Lib Dem vote collapsed in 2011? That year the Tory vote collapsed by just as much!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Iain Martin liked it too:

    "Funny, relaxed, mature: this was a breakthrough moment for Ed Miliband"

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100244999/funny-relaxed-mature-this-was-a-breakthrough-moment-for-ed-miliband/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed still hiding at Labour HQ - prepared statement to avoid heckling and any questions.

    He's in full Brown bunker mode.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Easterross said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Easterross @Fitalass FPT

    Do they put something in the water in Scotland? Why is it that the PB McTories are more optimistic than the PB Tories despite not actually existing (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    Why do you persist in talking utter guff! At the 2010 General election for every 6 people who voted SNP, 5 voted Tory. At the Dunfermline by-election last month the Tory share of the vote INCREASED by 1%. In the Borders Council By-election last month, the Tories gubbed the LibDem who was expected by the PB community to take the seat.

    The Tory vote in Scotland is slowly recovering. Ming Campbell took 3 attempts to win NE Fife from Barry Henderson.

    In 2010 there was a 10% swing from the SNP to the Tories in Alex Salmond's old seat and the SNP majority FELL by 7,810 to just over 4,000.

    In 2010 there was a 5% swing from the LibDems to the Tories in Sir Robert Smith's West Aberdeenshire seat and the LibDem majority HALVED from 7,400 to 3,700.

    There are a handful of seats in 2015 where the Scottish Tories have a real chance.

    Incidentally in NE Fife in 2010 there was a 5% swing from Sir Ming Campbell to the Tories and his majority in 2005 of 12,500 fell to 9000.
    Are the handful of seats in 2015 where the Conservatives have a real chance the same ones you said the Conservatives would definitely gain in 2010 ?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    “Nick Clegg says he is entitled to call Tory climate sceptics 'deniers' despite concerns that it is a 'malicious and abusive' term”

    An interesting choice of photo to accompany the article – A Sieg Heil moment?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10432845/Nick-Clegg-I-am-entitled-to-call-Tory-climate-sceptics-deniers.html
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited November 2013
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating threader. My only response is this: I just realised that during my Zambia trip, which ended 6am this morning, I took twelve flights in twelve days - six jets, five light aircraft, one helicopter.

    Can any pb-er beat that for frantic, stupid, overly wearying travel insanity?

    Yes, the initial PS4 internal reveal. I was part of a team that visited 14 destinations in 17 days across Europe, Japan/Asia and the US. Absolutely awful.

    Started in Tokyo, ended in Santa Monica. Via Seoul (air), Hong Kong (air), Singapore (air), Amsterdam (air), Runcorn (air/train), Cambridge (train), London (train), New York (air), Seattle (air), Oregon (air), LA (air), San Diego (car).

    All because I am part of the ATG. :(
    Runcorn really stands out in that list of destinations...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed is unstoppable.

    It's all that great press he is getting as a result of Falkirk, fully predicted by the PB Kinnocks.

    He has even faced down demands for an inquiry from "the greatest living politician of our time", Alistair Darling.

    He is in total command for as long as Len lets him
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Lennon said:



    Runcorn really stands out in that list of destinations...

    Town full of people with time to play on a PS4?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    SeanT said:

    Fascinating threader. My only response is this: I just realised that during my Zambia trip, which ended 6am this morning, I took twelve flights in twelve days - six jets, five light aircraft, one helicopter.

    Can any pb-er beat that for frantic, stupid, overly wearying travel insanity?

    SeanT

    I once did a 3-month tour of the USA which was mainly one-night stands except for weekends. Would get on a plane about late afternoon, fly for a few hours, be met at the airport, bags dropped at hotel and was an excuse for my hosts to have a boozy night out. Get back anytime in the early hours, meet the company President for breakfast at 7.30am, rest of day in plant and meetings and then to airport for next flight.

    Weekends, I was usually entertained by people like the President of P&G, J&J or Weyerhaeuser etc. So whilst the weekends were more social, I was 'on parade' all the time. Came back exhausted and first thing family said was, where can we go out?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    Ed still hiding at Labour HQ - prepared statement to avoid heckling and any questions.

    He's in full Brown bunker mode.

    Nah....he was avoiding questions in Edinburgh.....

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/07/falkirk-row-clear-legal-evidence-ed-miliband

    When he wasn't stating the obvious about defence procurement threatening the Scots:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/labour-leader-ed-miliband-refuses-2686468
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Lordy lordy. Is it proper think Ed M might be a proper human being after all? (*)

    (*) I'm also a founder member of the " Don't Underestimate Ed Miliband Association"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    Nah....he was avoiding questions in Edinburgh.....

    Close enough to take a victory tour of Falkirk, the scene of his greatest triumph.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Toms said:

    Lordy lordy. Is it proper think Ed M might be a proper human being after all? (*)

    (*) I'm also a founder member of the " Don't Underestimate Ed Miliband Association"

    Reading an autocue of a pre-written joke ?

    Too feart to turn up to a live event after his roasting on Tuesday.


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ed still hiding at Labour HQ - prepared statement to avoid heckling and any questions.

    He's in full Brown bunker mode.

    In the real world of course he's been growing in confidence over the last couple of months,
    Growing in confidence Is he only 9/10 scared of Len now ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour is happy for people to sign up friends and family to the party without their knowledge, Ed Miliband said today in response to fresh allegations about vote-rigging in Falkirk.

    The Labour leader said that there was “no case for further action” in light of a claim by Michelle Hornall that she had been made a member of his party without her consent.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3915787.ece

    Well, that's all-right then. Move along. Nothing to see here.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Scott_P said:

    Labour is happy for people to sign up friends and family to the party without their knowledge, Ed Miliband said today in response to fresh allegations about vote-rigging in Falkirk.

    Its entirely consistent with how they like people to be signed up to the electoral roll.....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,470
    CarlottaVance said:

    Ed's Speccie award speech:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2y8x1_0OU8&feature=youtu.be

    Rather good.....amazing what he can do when Balls does not have to pre-clear it....


    He does look disconcertingly like a young Ken Dodd though......
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:


    Growing in confidence Is he only 9/10 scared of Len now ?

    Why would he be scared?

    @GeneralBoles: Len McCluskey makes Ed Miliband an offer he can't refuse... #pmqs http://t.co/vcUHEgvBa5
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited November 2013
    TGOHF said:



    Reading an autocue of a pre-written joke ?

    Too feart to turn up to a live event after his roasting on Tuesday.

    Ah, but compare & contrast his delivery with that of Mr. Brown.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Toms said:

    TGOHF said:



    Reading an autocue of a pre-written joke ?

    Too feart to turn up to a live event after his roasting on Tuesday.

    Ah, but compare & contrast with Mr. Brown.

    Next up : " Ed is marvellous as he likes the Artic Monkeys"

    Next up : "Mrs Ed cries as disabled man threatened with deporation.."

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Toms said:

    Lordy lordy. Is it proper think Ed M might be a proper human being after all? (*)

    (*) I'm also a founder member of the " Don't Underestimate Ed Miliband Association"

    Reading an autocue of a pre-written joke ?

    Too feart to turn up to a live event after his roasting on Tuesday.


    Something seems to have gotten to you....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    While Ed & Theresa were the winners at the Speccie:

    https://audioboo.fm/boos/1712925-theresa-may-cracking-jokes-at-the-spectator-s-parliamentarian-of-the-year-awards

    Tristram misfired:

    "Tristram Hunt, Labour shadow education spokesman and the Spectator’s Newcomer of the Year, sailed close to the wind by imagining a Spectator free school: Rod Liddle would be in charge of diversity, Charles Moore would be the ‘High Master’, yet there were worries about whether Boris would pass the CRB check. An awkward silence fell…"

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2013/11/ed-steals-the-show-at-the-spectator-parliamentarian-of-the-year-awards/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    SeanT said:

    lol. OK that totally trumps me. At least I got to see lions in between check in desks.

    Why is travel so knackering? I can't work out whether it is the bombardment of new ideas and sensations (good) or just the endless packing, unpacking etc (bad). Probably both, I suppose.

    Yeah, I got to see the inside of conference rooms mostly. V. depressing two and a bit weeks.

    I just think it's the flying. Not enough oxygen or something.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    CarlottaVance said:

    While Ed & Theresa were the winners at the Speccie:

    https://audioboo.fm/boos/1712925-theresa-may-cracking-jokes-at-the-spectator-s-parliamentarian-of-the-year-awards

    Tristram misfired:

    "Tristram Hunt, Labour shadow education spokesman and the Spectator’s Newcomer of the Year, sailed close to the wind by imagining a Spectator free school: Rod Liddle would be in charge of diversity, Charles Moore would be the ‘High Master’, yet there were worries about whether Boris would pass the CRB check. An awkward silence fell…"

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2013/11/ed-steals-the-show-at-the-spectator-parliamentarian-of-the-year-awards/

    Mr Hunt might end up in libel courts over such a joke. That kind of accusation can get people killed. Very foolish.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Toms said:

    Lordy lordy. Is it proper think Ed M might be a proper human being after all? (*)

    (*) I'm also a founder member of the " Don't Underestimate Ed Miliband Association"

    Reading an autocue of a pre-written joke ?

    Too feart to turn up to a live event after his roasting on Tuesday.


    Something seems to have gotten to you....
    Seen this operation before - so obvious it's untrue.

    "Once he becomes PM you will see the real Gordon..."

    Taking us for fools..
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    TSE around? One for night-hawks:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2490071/Are-mutant-super-rats-taking-Commons-Parliament-spends-6-000-month-tackling-pests-fears-grow-poison-resistant-vermin.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Fact Check on the PMQs NHS A&E waiting times stat spat:

    http://fullfact.org/factchecks/accident_emergency_waiting_times__nhs_hitting_target-29264

    Cameron was correct - Ed chose only major A&Es for his stats - but didn't mention this....so they're both right - but one was less than transparent.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    RichardNabavi said:

    TSE around? One for night-hawks:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2490071/Are-mutant-super-rats-taking-Commons-Parliament-spends-6-000-month-tackling-pests-fears-grow-poison-resistant-vermin.html

    Predictable, but amusing comments :)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    One for night-hawks:

    Stronger and more effective poisons are available but there are fears the wildlife will suffer.

    You could just see how there would be a thriving illicit trade in stronger poisons if they continue to be blocked by do gooders...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The biggest wishful "thinker" says 57% !!!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    SeanT said:

    Fair play to Ed Miliband. Funny speech.

    He's still a thieving son of a commie who will send Camden property prices plummetting and leave millionaire thriller writers forced to fly Business rather than First.

    I reckon in Ed's one nation you'd enjoy travelling standard.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    Bobajob said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    You mean apart from the 412,000 that voted Conservative at the last GE?

    A myth. If you take 412,000 off that figure you will be presented with the accurate number of Tories in Scotland.

    Be fair Bob , 411,999
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    malcolmg said:

    Bobajob said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    (there are zero Tories in Scotland)

    You mean apart from the 412,000 that voted Conservative at the last GE?

    A myth. If you take 412,000 off that figure you will be presented with the accurate number of Tories in Scotland.

    Be fair Bob , 411,999
    Malcolm, it's a fair cop. My apologies. :-)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those interested in the jump in Royal Mail share prices after privatisation will no doubt be scandalised by the undervaluation of Twitter shares on its IPO, with prices immediately rising on trading from $26 a share to $45 a share. This was the Economist's take last week:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/11/twitters-ipo
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrankBooth said:

    SeanT said:

    Fair play to Ed Miliband. Funny speech.

    He's still a thieving son of a commie who will send Camden property prices plummetting and leave millionaire thriller writers forced to fly Business rather than First.

    I reckon in Ed's one nation you'd enjoy travelling standard.
    There will be two classes to travel - "standard" and "politburo"

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Gerry_Mander said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Breton riots - Telegraph coverage.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/10423888/French-protesters-say-Brittany-will-be-Francois-Hollandes-cemetery.html

    The government had hoped to quash revolt by “suspending” until January the tax, aimed at encouraging environmentally friendly commercial transport by slapping new levies on vehicles transporting goods weighing over 3.5 tonnes.

    Have I understood this correctly? They're suggesting that two lorries carrying 2 tonnes each would be more environmentally friendly than one carrying 4 tonnes?

    In terms of damage to the roads, possibly. In terms of emissions, probably not.
    It's not really about the environment it's about moral one-up-man-ship.

    That's how you get stuff like that or how this country's green energy policy ended up having to run the national grid off diesel generators.

    What would be really funny - in a totally ****ed up way - would be if the winter (or any winter in the next few years) was really bad (as you can't use windmills when it's too cold) and there wasn't the capacity to import enough diesel.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited November 2013
    Alas there will be no nighthawks tonight.

    I've run out of subtle pop music references to put into nighthawks

    Thursday nights are reserved for Harry's council by elections preview round up.

    Plus tonight I'm off to watch Gravity and Thor for the squillioneth time.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    equal and equaler
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:


    There will be two classes to travel - "standard" and "politburo"

    Travel where, and why?

    Everything will be One Nation. Your kids will go to the mandatory One Nation local school. You will be a guaranteed a job in your local One Nation Tractor Factory (Unite members only). BBC One Nation will fulfil all of your entertainment needs, and the One Nation Guardian will be delivered daily.

    Travel is for Toffs.
This discussion has been closed.