I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.
I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.
The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.
Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.
Judging by his speech yesterday and what I have seen of his recent campaign, he has learnt more in his time as a politician than Boris or other candidates ever will.
I was criticised on here the other day when I made the same point. We hugely overstate our importance as a nation and underestimate the dismay and disbelief with which we are being viewed.
I disagree, I think we tend to understate our importance. We are one of the top handful of countries by soft power, economy, military strength, diplomatic influence, language, finance, sport. In some we are top. It is a remarkable achievement which we should be proud of and look for new ways we can continue to influence the world such as green technology.
What we get t point of view, there is no shared Western interests in the Trumpian viewpoint.
Within the EU we have the clout to limit the impact of the tensions between the three rival groups. Outside the EU, being important is worse for us than being a minor country.
There are different types of nostalgia that drive different sets of voters:-
1. Everything was good in the 1950's, before society went to hell 2. Everything was good before Thatcher, before society went to hell 3. Everything was good before Brexit, before society went to hell
In truth, there is a lot more right than wrong with the way this country works.
Mr. Thompson, debatable. Boris post-referendum is a different animal to the pre-referendum edition.
He's held, and been inept at, high office, and his position as a leading light in the referendum campaign has turned off significant numbers of voters (many in London).
I remain unconvinced his ageing court jester schtick will fly. We may find out.
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing? You imbue them with the reputation of the 300 Spartans, such were their deeds relative to their numbers.
The Conservative Party completley untied would still have faield to dleiver Brexit. It is - thanks to the Wisdom of May - a minority Govt. We have not left because May could not devise a means to get the DUP on board. Nor stop the Remainer wing of her party siding with Labour/leaving to form a new party.
I'm sure the ERG are grateful for you bigging them up. After all, they did get May's scalp (years too late to be of much consequence to the Brexit negotaitions, mind.) But it is risible to suggest that if the ERG had lined up as one to approve May's Shit Deal, that Woolaston, Soubry, Grieve etc would have joind the the DUP in implementing Brexit.
The Opposition isn't supposed to pass Government Policy - they are supposed to oppose. May's deal was the Government's policy and it is the responsibility of the the Conservative Party (as a whole) to pass her deal with the ERG refused to do.
Now you can try to pin the blame on Grieve and others but there are only a few of those and over 70 ERG members...
The handful of Tory hard remainers were almost precisely balanced by Labour rebels who voted for the deal. Its failure to pass was entirely down to the ERG and DUP who between them have ensured Brexit hasn't happened.
Amazing how many on here say that Brexiteers don't care about the Union in one breath, yet it was precisely because of the EU annexation of Northern Ireland that the Withdrawal Agreement didn't pass.
How can pro-WA Remainers claim to care about the Union when they want to hand over the province on a plate, in return for some promise of a trade deal? And that's without taking into account the boost that would give Scottish independence.
No Deal is how the Union survives intact. As it did for hundreds of years before we joined the European Union. Let the SNP/Sinn Fein argue for the Euro.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share. We may get less light from the flat but we can open our curtains at will to the rest of the world.
Yes and no. He will go for 31 Oct, unrealistically, parliament will stop him, he asks for a GE and says to the public he is not delaying by choice but you really to vote for him now to get it at all. And asks for an extension to allow that.
Yes, I think that must be it.
A GE is called and Boris repeatedly says I can only deliver if you give me a majority.
He either gets a majority, or no.
In the former case, he can keep his promise. In the latter case, it is no longer his problem (it is PM Corbyn. leading the Remainer Alliance).
Theresa May tried that gambit. Remind me how it worked out for her.
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing? You imbue them with the reputation of the 300 Spartans, such were their deeds relative to their numbers.
The Conservative Party completley untied would still have faield to dleiver Brexit. It is - thanks to the Wisdom of May - a minority Govt. We have not left because May could not devise a means to get the DUP on board. Nor stop the Remainer wing of her party siding with Labour/leaving to form a new party.
I'm sure the ERG are grateful for you bigging them up. After all, they did get May's scalp (years too late to be of much consequence to the Brexit negotaitions, mind.) But it is risible to suggest that if the ERG had lined up as one to approve May's Shit Deal, that Woolaston, Soubry, Grieve etc would have joind the the DUP in implementing Brexit.
The Opposition isn't supposed to pass Government Policy - they are supposed to oppose. May's deal was the Government's policy and it is the responsibility of the the Conservative Party (as a whole) to pass her deal with the ERG refused to do.
Now you can try to pin the blame on Grieve and others but there are only a few of those and over 70 ERG members...
The handful of Tory hard remainers were almost precisely balanced by Labour rebels who voted for the deal. Its failure to pass was entirely down to the ERG and DUP who between them have ensured Brexit hasn't happened.
Amazing how many on here say that Brexiteers don't care about the Union in one breath, yet it was precisely because of the EU annexation of Northern Ireland that the Withdrawal Agreement didn't pass.
How can pro-WA Remainers claim to care about the Union when they want to hand over the province on a plate, in return for some promise of a trade deal? And that's without taking into account the boost that would give Scottish independence.
No Deal is how the Union survives intact. As it did for hundreds of years before we joined the European Union. Let the SNP/Sinn Fein argue for the Euro.
Less amazing is your desire to ignore the wishes of two thirds of the NI electorate, who back the WA.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
The EU is not a protectionist bloc. Leaving it does absolutely nothing to liberate trade with the rest of the world, but it does make trade with our own continent harder.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
The EU is not a protectionist bloc. Leaving it does absolutely nothing to liberate trade with the rest of the world, but it does make trade with our own continent harder.
Who has a trade deal with China: The EU or Australia? Who has a trade deal with the USA: The EU or Australia?
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing? You imbue them with the reputation of the 300 Spartans, such were their deeds relative to their numbers.
The Conservative Party completley untied would still have faield to dleiver Brexit. It is - thanks to the Wisdom of May - a minority Govt. We have not left because May could not devise a means to get the DUP on board. Nor stop the Remainer wing of her party siding with Labour/leaving to form a new party.
I'm sure the ERG are grateful for you bigging them up. After all, they did get May's scalp (years too late to be of much consequence to the Brexit negotaitions, mind.) But it is risible to suggest that if the ERG had lined up as one to approve May's Shit Deal, that Woolaston, Soubry, Grieve etc would have joind the the DUP in implementing Brexit.
The Opposition isn't supposed to pass Government Policy - they are supposed to oppose. May's deal was the Government's policy and it is the responsibility of the the Conservative Party (as a whole) to pass her deal with the ERG refused to do.
Now you can try to pin the blame on Grieve and others but there are only a few of those and over 70 ERG members...
The handful of Tory hard remainers were almost precisely balanced by Labour rebels who voted for the deal. Its failure to pass was entirely down to the ERG and DUP who between them have ensured Brexit hasn't happened.
Amazing how many on here say that Brexiteers don't care about the Union in one breath, yet it was precisely because of the EU annexation of Northern Ireland that the Withdrawal Agreement didn't pass.
How can pro-WA Remainers claim to care about the Union when they want to hand over the province on a plate, in return for some promise of a trade deal? And that's without taking into account the boost that would give Scottish independence.
No Deal is how the Union survives intact. As it did for hundreds of years before we joined the European Union. Let the SNP/Sinn Fein argue for the Euro.
Less amazing is your desire to ignore the wishes of two thirds of the NI electorate, who back the WA.
Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
The EU is not a protectionist bloc. Leaving it does absolutely nothing to liberate trade with the rest of the world, but it does make trade with our own continent harder.
Who has a trade deal with China: The EU or Australia? Who has a trade deal with the USA: The EU or Australia?
More cargo cult stuff. We will not become Australia by leaving the EU.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
The EU is not a protectionist bloc. Leaving it does absolutely nothing to liberate trade with the rest of the world, but it does make trade with our own continent harder.
Who has a trade deal with China: The EU or Australia? Who has a trade deal with the USA: The EU or Australia?
More cargo cult stuff. We will not become Australia by leaving the EU.
Australia is a much smaller country than Britain. If it can secure these agreements, why is it seemingly impossible (in your view) for Britain to also do so?
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
I never understood why Internet scammers bothered with those send us your bank account details and we'll deposit $10 million from a Nigerian general emails. Now I do.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
Yeah, right: Singapore’s welfare system is exactly what most Brexit voters want......
Good luck with that on the campaign trail.
Singapore has plenty of social housing
Pensioners are unhappy to give up their free TV licenses A wholesale scrapping of the welfare state (which is what a Singapore model entails, along with government enforced saving) would be unlikely to go down well with the demographic (the old and the non-working) that still believe in Brexit.
Singapore has justabout the lowest fertility rate in the world, andlowest in ethnicChinese. It is asociety that is completely dependent on inward migration to keepaviable population.
Quite. Just about anything you care to discover about Singapore demonstrates why it is an exceedingly poor model for the future of the UK.
Though it was expelled from the short lived Malaysian federation...
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Mr. B, allowing a minority to determine the course the majority takes, and allowing a small part of the country to dictate foreign/trade policy, is not a good precedent to set.
It's a great shame that May's way of doing things has made matters so much harder for her successor. Talking up leaving without a deal, then failing to prepare for no deal, then rowing back utterly (leaving the rhetoric as a handy space for the ERG and making it hard to refute), and signing up to something that the Commons just doesn't want is not great.
That doesn't absolve MPs of their own responsibilities, of course. Triggering Article 50 then opposing the deal, and no deal, and not even backing a second referendum/revocation, is infantile.
Take the actual vote intention from the ComRes poll (on the assumption that the froth of leadership will die down to the base state) Lab 27, Con 23, Bxp 22, LD 17, Green 5
Assume the same errors as with the last ComRes poll for the Euro elections (so 3 off of Con, 8 off of Lab, 6 on to LD, 5 on to Green, no change to Bxp) Gives LD 23, Bxp 22, Con 20, Lab 19, Green 10. Run this through Electoral Calculus, including tactical voting for the remnant Tories, for Lib Dems and for Lab (but not for Brexit Party, because there is no record of who are the challengers and the Brexit Party voters are doing so because they're too angry with the Tories to vote for them - like ex-LD tactical voters in 2015)
And we get: Brexit 237, Lab 149, LD 111, Con 75, SNP 55
Now, we learned from Peterborough that the Brexit Party simply don't have a polished ground game. This puts them at a a disadvantage compared to the established parties. Given that a huge chunk of these Brexit Party wins are with very small projected percentages (2-3% or so), this makes a huge difference. You could expect about 90 of those seats to fall heartbreakingly short for them after all. These would go to the established parties, and, in the random-number generator that is FPTP at these levels, probably fairly evenly spread. About 20-40 each.
So Lab 169-189, LD 131-151, Brexit 147 or so, Con 95-115.
Round to nearest five to reflect necessary imprecision and put a similar variance around Brexit Party for that as well:
Lab 170-190, Brexit 135-155, LD 130-150, Con 95-115.
So Lab largest party but sub-200, photo finish between LD and Brexit for second, Con fourth.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
One day maybe I'll understand how trade will be liberated by making it harder and more expensive to export to our biggest market. But right now, it beats me.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
The EU is not a protectionist bloc. Leaving it does absolutely nothing to liberate trade with the rest of the world, but it does make trade with our own continent harder.
Who has a trade deal with China: The EU or Australia? Who has a trade deal with the USA: The EU or Australia?
More cargo cult stuff. We will not become Australia by leaving the EU.
Australia is a much smaller country than Britain. If it can secure these agreements, why is it seemingly impossible (in your view) for Britain to also do so?
You can't answer it can you.
So our future is exporting iron ore and copper to China ?
From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters
70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!
It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...
It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?
Yes, just like in 2017...
Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.
If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.
Given our voting system there is only one way to stop him, unfortunately.
Boris Tories plus Brexit Party =51% with Comres
Labour plus LDs =44%
Do you ever consider that your 100% obsession with polling is a flawed concept especially in these crazy political times
He would do well to remember that the Conservatives went into the last GE with polling that gave them a 3 figure majority. Weren't BXP meant to be a shoe in for Peterborough according to HUYD and the polling?
Quoting polling figures right now as though they are written on tablets of stone is idiocy of the first order. Polling figures for Johnson will, I suspect, look very different after October 1st
Difference is that both May and BXP are crap at campaigning. Boris isn't.
Campaigns have never had that huge an impact on GE results. Some just like to console themselves with the idea that if May had campaigned better she would have retained her 20% lead. Does anyone really believe that?
Isn't Farage supposed to be a fantastic campaigner? He was all over the Peterborough BE after having just won the Euros and he lost.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
The EU is not a protectionist bloc. Leaving it does absolutely nothing to liberate trade with the rest of the world, but it does make trade with our own continent harder.
Who has a trade deal with China: The EU or Australia? Who has a trade deal with the USA: The EU or Australia?
More cargo cult stuff. We will not become Australia by leaving the EU.
Australia is a much smaller country than Britain. If it can secure these agreements, why is it seemingly impossible (in your view) for Britain to also do so?
You can't answer it can you.
So our future is exporting iron ore and copper to China ?
No, it's exporting financial services which we excel at and make a lot of money doing. You are aware London is the financial capital of the world?
Mr. B, allowing a minority to determine the course the majority takes, and allowing a small part of the country to dictate foreign/trade policy, is not a good precedent to set.
Which would be a sensible comment had it addressed my point - which was to demonstrate the no one was 'handing over' NI to anyone.
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing?
By the simple expedient of voting against it. It's not that complicated.
Well done for ignoring the maths.
What Maths - the only people elected to pass May's deal were MPs wearing a blue rosette. The ERG wore a blue rosette but did not vote for May's deal therefore they are responsible for May's Deal not becoming law.
You can blame other MPs as much as you want but they are not responsible for this mess - the ERG are...
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share.
The EU is not a protectionist bloc. Leaving it does absolutely nothing to liberate trade with the rest of the world, but it does make trade with our own continent harder.
Who has a trade deal with China: The EU or Australia? Who has a trade deal with the USA: The EU or Australia?
More cargo cult stuff. We will not become Australia by leaving the EU.
Australia is a much smaller country than Britain. If it can secure these agreements, why is it seemingly impossible (in your view) for Britain to also do so?
You can't answer it can you.
What would the content of the agreements be? Any realistic assessment of what a US-UK trade deal would look like suggests it would not have political support in the UK, and we still have the practical question of the Irish border to address. As for China, suppose we could negotiate a deal like the Swiss-Chinese deal. That would also fail to get through parliament because it is so skewed towards Chinese interests.
Difference is that both May and BXP are crap at campaigning. Boris isn't.
Campaigns have never had that huge an impact on GE results. Some just like to console themselves with the idea that if May had campaigned better she would have retained her 20% lead. Does anyone really believe that?
Isn't Farage supposed to be a fantastic campaigner? He was all over the Peterborough BE after having just won the Euros and he lost.
Keep grasping at straws.
2017 begs to differ. The campaign had a mammoth difference.
No Farage is not a fantastic campaigner, when have I ever said that? He has never won a by-election where it wasn't the incumbent defending the seat and Vote Leave rightly knew that if he'd have been front man of the Leave campaign then Remain would have won.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
Mr. B, well, no, the backstop covers the whole UK.
And we can argue the toss whether a customs border within our own country is more or less unacceptable to the Commons than 'leaving' the EU only to enter an arrangement we can't leave without their consent.
The other day I suggested a compromise of a 10 year backstop period to negotiate/implement a permanent alternative. Nobody replied, alas.
No, it's exporting financial services which we excel at and make a lot of money doing. You are aware London is the financial capital of the world?
'London has lost its status as the world's top financial centre, according to rankings showing gains for post-Brexit rivals.
The latest Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index showed New York overtaking the UK's capital for the first time since 2015.
The City think tank, which compiles its lists using data from international bodies such as the World Bank and responses to a survey, said there was evidence London had been knocked, but only slightly, by uncertainty over Brexit.
Rivals within the EU for financial services business currently in the UK were among the cities making the greatest strides, the report said, though Asian centres stood out.
"Zurich, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Vienna, and Milan moved up the rankings significantly.
"These centres may be the main beneficiaries of the uncertainty caused by Brexit."'
It cannot be hard, surely, to understand the difference between a small island doing this, having pretty much done this since independence, and a small island tearing up overnight all its agreements (not just trade-related ones), the whole basis of its economy and polity for 46 years and embarking on a future with no plan at all for what happens the day after.
Cut taxes, liberate trade and become the Singapore of Europe. Decent start for what happens the day after.
You can’t liberate trade by creating new trade barriers. It’s like boarding up your windows to let in more light.
You can liberate trade by leaving a protectionist bloc. The EU is an ever shrinking fraction of global trade not the be all and end all.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share. We may get less light from the flat but we can open our curtains at will to the rest of the world.
Tbf to HYUFD, he was touting Boris way back when based on his confident use of polling. If you'd bought then (against prevailing sentiment on here), you'd be sitting on a handsome profit. I should probably add that pb prevailing sentiment on Hunt has also been very profitable.
The BBC is a world-renowned organisation of which Britain should be proud. Sadly, its days seem to be numbered due to a combination of changing technology, an onslaught from private media interests, and a lack of care from successive governments.
The costs should be wrapped up in general taxation but they won't. The BBC will wither and die, and with it a significant chunk of Britain's soft influence across the world will go.
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing?
By the simple expedient of voting against it. It's not that complicated.
Well done for ignoring the maths.
What Maths - the only people elected to pass May's deal were MPs wearing a blue rosette. The ERG wore a blue rosette but did not vote for May's deal therefore they are responsible for May's Deal not becoming law.
You can blame other MPs as much as you want but they are not responsible for this mess - the ERG are...
Blue rosettes have a majority of British MPs but not UK due to NI. Even if all the ERG had voted in favour it would still have lost. Because it was a shit deal for NI whose MPs rejected it.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
Greater minds than Boris have wrestled with these questions for centuries. It is an indication that they really have swallowed their own hype. That is always fatal.
From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters
70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!
It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...
It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?
Yes, just like in 2017...
Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.
If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.
Given our voting system there is only one way to stop him, unfortunately.
Boris Tories plus Brexit Party =51% with Comres
Labour plus LDs =44%
Do you ever consider that your 100% obsession with polling is a flawed concept especially in these crazy political times
He would do well to remember that the Conservatives went into the last GE with polling that gave them a 3 figure majority. Weren't BXP meant to be a shoe in for Peterborough according to HUYD and the polling?
Quoting polling figures right now as though they are written on tablets of stone is idiocy of the first order. Polling figures for Johnson will, I suspect, look very different after October 1st
Difference is that both May and BXP are crap at campaigning. Boris isn't.
So he wouldnt do something stupid like May did by not appearing at all during a contest to be the prime minister?
If he is good at campaigning, why does he refuse to do so? If he is so clever, why are his words and actions so stupid?
The BBC is a world-renowned organisation of which Britain should be proud. Sadly, its days seem to be numbered due to a combination of changing technology, an onslaught from private media interests, and a lack of care from successive governments.
The costs should be wrapped up in general taxation but they won't. The BBC will wither and die, and with it a significant chunk of Britain's soft influence across the world will go.
Yep - that's the bit the Government does not understand...
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing?
By the simple expedient of voting against it. It's not that complicated.
Well done for ignoring the maths.
What Maths - the only people elected to pass May's deal were MPs wearing a blue rosette. The ERG wore a blue rosette but did not vote for May's deal therefore they are responsible for May's Deal not becoming law.
You can blame other MPs as much as you want but they are not responsible for this mess - the ERG are...
You are forgetting the first rule of Brexiteers, which we see time and time again:
It's all someone else's fault!
Brexiteers are awesome, and therefore anything that goes against the brilliance they foresee is not their fault (for they are awesome), but someone else's. Even when they fail, it's because someone else did a bad job, not because they are clueless.
The vagaries of universal swing calculations on Electoral Calculus seem to be being used as a convenient distraction from the main message of that ComRes poll. And that message was that the Conservatives could poll around 37% with Johnson as leader, compared to 23% now and a mere 19% with Stewart as leader. How Electoral Calculus subsequently mashes up those figures into seats is irrelevant.
No, I don't believe that the Conservatives will get a 140 seat majority at the next GE with Johnson as leader. However, they have a good chance of getting a workable majority better than that which May gave up. And in anticipation of that possibility, the EU would then have to mull over whether it is better to make some limited concessions now rather than going down a road which would most likely force a general election leading to a workable majority for any form of Brexit including No Deal.
As for Stewart, the ComRes polling does show a higher percentage of undecided DKs (31%) as would be expected for someone little known until now. However, 236 of those DKs voted Leave in 2016, compared to 218 who voted Remain. The balance for Leave does not suggest that Stewart could do markedly better if his arch Remainer views became known amongst undecided voters.
From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters
70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!
It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...
It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?
Yes, just like in 2017...
Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.
If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.
You must be bonkers.. you'd rather have Corbyn?
Corbyn as PM will be just fine and infinitely preferable to Boris. Corbo won't be able to enact the madder parts of his program due to the limitations of the inevitable hung parliament and his own laziness/stupidity/incompetence.
I am not sure about 'relatively simple' but the goal of a federal Britain (if that's what he was touting) may be the first sensible thing Boris has said.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
Mr. B, well, no, the backstop covers the whole UK.
And we can argue the toss whether a customs border within our own country is more or less unacceptable to the Commons than 'leaving' the EU only to enter an arrangement we can't leave without their consent.
The other day I suggested a compromise of a 10 year backstop period to negotiate/implement a permanent alternative. Nobody replied, alas.
But it only covers the entire UK because the DUP insisted on it and May secured it.
The EU don't care about Great Britain their cared about the island of Ireland..
Mr. Pointer, you missed off 'bloody stupid decisions', such as happened over F1.
Ok, that's my special interest, but it was also the most successful sports coverage on the BBC in terms of hitting targets. And they threw it away, voluntarily approaching Sky so the coverage went behind a pay wall instead of a free-to-air rival.
I hardly watch anything other than news on the BBC. It's not hard to see support declining for a broadcaster that doesn't broadcast programmes people want to watch (there are exceptions, Attenborough stuff, despite developing a 5 minute preach at the end, is excellent).
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing?
By the simple expedient of voting against it. It's not that complicated.
Well done for ignoring the maths.
What Maths - the only people elected to pass May's deal were MPs wearing a blue rosette. The ERG wore a blue rosette but did not vote for May's deal therefore they are responsible for May's Deal not becoming law.
You can blame other MPs as much as you want but they are not responsible for this mess - the ERG are...
You are forgetting the first rule of Brexiteers, which we see time and time again:
It's all someone else's fault!
Brexiteers are awesome, and therefore anything that goes against the brilliance they foresee is not their fault (for they are awesome), but someone else's. Even when they fail, it's because someone else did a bad job, not because they are clueless.
The vagaries of universal swing calculations on Electoral Calculus seem to be being used as a convenient distraction from the main message of that ComRes poll. And that message was that the Conservatives could poll around 37% with Johnson as leader, compared to 23% now and a mere 19% with Stewart as leader. How Electoral Calculus subsequently mashes up those figures into seats is irrelevant.
No, I don't believe that the Conservatives will get a 140 seat majority at the next GE with Johnson as leader. However, they have a good chance of getting a workable majority better than that which May gave up. And in anticipation of that possibility, the EU would then have to mull over whether it is better to make some limited concessions now rather than going down a road which would most likely force a general election leading to a workable majority for any form of Brexit including No Deal.
As for Stewart, the ComRes polling does show a higher percentage of undecided DKs (31%) as would be expected for someone little known until now. However, 236 of those DKs voted Leave in 2016, compared to 218 who voted Remain. The balance for Leave does not suggest that Stewart could do markedly better if his arch Remainer views became known amongst undecided voters.
How is someone who rules out a 2nd referendum and revoke an arch remainer!? His plan is to leave, and unlike the others his has some chance of actually working. The language of hard brexiteers is completely beyond me. It is truly a different world they exist on.
From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters
70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!
It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...
It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?
Yes, just like in 2017...
Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.
If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.
You must be bonkers.. you'd rather have Corbyn?
Corbyn as PM will be just fine and infinitely preferable to Boris. Corbo won't be able to enact the madder parts of his program due to the limitations of the inevitable hung parliament and his own laziness/stupidity/incompetence.
+1
This is absolutely true and a point missed by the PB-Tory Venezuela conspiracy-theorists.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
Do you disagree with Farage's support for a federal UK?
Someone on here also said that the Brexit Party is “neutral” on the Scottish independence question. Interestinger and interestinger.
(Has anyone got a decent link to support this neutrality?)
As far as I'm aware it doesn't have ANY policies apart from Brexit and I'm not sure whether that's Deal or No Deal.
The policy is to leave - it doesn't matter how we leave as I suspect the only test would be does Farage's security pass block him from entering the EU Parliament building...
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
We don't trade under WTO terms with the USA. We trade under the EU / USA trade agreement.
Apart from that the rest of your argument is perfectly valid...
Difference is that both May and BXP are crap at campaigning. Boris isn't.
So he wouldnt do something stupid like May did by not appearing at all during a contest to be the prime minister?
If he is good at campaigning, why does he refuse to do so? If he is so clever, why are his words and actions so stupid?
TV debates haven't started yet. I agree he should not refuse the debates and if he does that will be awful but at the moment the electors are the MPs and he seems to be campaigning strongly amongst them.
If he refuses the TV debates I agree he shouldn't be leader.
From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters
70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!
It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...
It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?
Yes, just like in 2017...
Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.
If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.
You must be bonkers.. you'd rather have Corbyn?
Corbyn as PM will be just fine and infinitely preferable to Boris. Corbo won't be able to enact the madder parts of his program due to the limitations of the inevitable hung parliament and his own laziness/stupidity/incompetence.
+1
This is absolutely true and a point missed by the PB-Tory Venezuela conspiracy-theorists.
John McDonnell isn't stupid or lazy. He will be the engine of new government.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
What do WTO terms offer on financial services? What do FTAs offer on financial services, for example Australia's FTAs with China and the USA?
Can one of our WTO leavers provide a thread header explaining the implications of imposing our registered tariff schedule on the EU 27 and a week by week progression of trade impact over the following six months. I have a feeling many people who spout no deal leave on WTO terms don’t know the first thing about it.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
In the case of the EU we are an equal member and the ECJ is our court, not 'theirs'.
In the case of the US it would be their courts - unless we became the 51st state.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
We don't trade under WTO terms with the USA. We trade under the EU / USA trade agreement.
Apart from that the rest of your argument is perfectly valid...
Can you name a country that has submitted itself under the US Supreme Court in order to get a Free Trade Agreement with the US of A? Absolute rubbish.
We wouldn't accept it with any other power, nor do we with the EU.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
Everything is some weird war/submission fantasy to you. You should see a therapist.
To answer your point, you'd happily trade on the fallacy of "WTO terms" with everyone, despite no other country in the world being happy with that arrangement?
Can one of our WTO leavers provide a thread header explaining the implications of imposing our registered tariff schedule on the EU 27 and a week by week progression of trade impact over the following six months. I have a feeling many people who spout no deal leave on WTO terms don’t know the first thing about it.
Aw, now you are just complicating things with reality - typical Remoaner!
For Boris not to get to the final round, he needs to lose votes at some point. Otherwise, it should be enough.
The problem for Boris would be if he had a leaver e.g. Raab in the final riound. If he had Hunt, Gove, Javid, Hancock, Stewart in the last round, he would romp home just by nature of being more leave than they. With Raab or McVey, that advantage is nullified and so the focus switches to other attributes.
From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters
70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!
It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...
It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?
Yes, just like in 2017...
Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.
If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.
You must be bonkers.. you'd rather have Corbyn?
Corbyn as PM will be just fine and infinitely preferable to Boris. Corbo won't be able to enact the madder parts of his program due to the limitations of the inevitable hung parliament and his own laziness/stupidity/incompetence.
+1
This is absolutely true and a point missed by the PB-Tory Venezuela conspiracy-theorists.
John McDonnell isn't stupid or lazy. He will be the engine of new government.
He won’t be allowed inside Khan’s low emission zone then.
Australia and Canada have very different economies to the UK. Our's is based on services, with financial and professional services high up the list. Their's are based on mineral extraction.
The FTA dynamics between the relevant parties are very different.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
Do you disagree with Farage's support for a federal UK?
Someone on here also said that the Brexit Party is “neutral” on the Scottish independence question. Interestinger and interestinger.
(Has anyone got a decent link to support this neutrality?)
As far as I'm aware it doesn't have ANY policies apart from Brexit and I'm not sure whether that's Deal or No Deal.
I think that it was the new Brexit Party MEP from Scotland (name escapes me). He stated at a public meeting in Edinburgh (?) that his party was “neutral” on the Scottish independence question. No media outlet seems to have recorded his words.
Probably just a blatant lie to try to lure pro-Brexit SNP supporters. UKIP/BRX have zero history on neutrality regarding the Union.
Can one of our WTO leavers provide a thread header explaining the implications of imposing our registered tariff schedule on the EU 27 and a week by week progression of trade impact over the following six months. I have a feeling many people who spout no deal leave on WTO terms don’t know the first thing about it.
Don't be ridiculous. Get off your knees and believe harder.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
What do WTO terms offer on financial services? What do FTAs offer on financial services, for example Australia's FTAs with China and the USA?
What do the EUs FTAs offer on Financial Services. Or is it not a priority for them?
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
Everything is some weird war/submission fantasy to you. You should see a therapist.
To answer your point, you'd happily trade on the fallacy of "WTO terms" with everyone, despite no other country in the world being happy with that arrangement?
Delusional.
Yet another militaristic war obsessed leaver. They really are bordering on psychopathic. I blame the war comics they read as children. Hande hock Tommy.
Yes and no. He will go for 31 Oct, unrealistically, parliament will stop him, he asks for a GE and says to the public he is not delaying by choice but you really to vote for him now to get it at all. And asks for an extension to allow that.
Yes, I think that must be it.
A GE is called and Boris repeatedly says I can only deliver if you give me a majority.
He either gets a majority, or no.
In the former case, he can keep his promise. In the latter case, it is no longer his problem (it is PM Corbyn. leading the Remainer Alliance).
Theresa May tried that gambit. Remind me how it worked out for her.
TM has the appeal and charisma of a soggy lettuce , Boris oozes charisma but obviously has his failings but is a sure election winner in the current political climate especially against the manhole collecting , allotment gardening Marxist pensioner !
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
What do WTO terms offer on financial services? What do FTAs offer on financial services, for example Australia's FTAs with China and the USA?
What do the EUs FTAs offer on Financial Services. Or is it not a priority for them?
Independent we can prioritise that.
The EU single market is the deepest example of services liberalisation anywhere in the world. You want to tear it up.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
Do you disagree with Farage's support for a federal UK?
Someone on here also said that the Brexit Party is “neutral” on the Scottish independence question. Interestinger and interestinger.
(Has anyone got a decent link to support this neutrality?)
As far as I'm aware it doesn't have ANY policies apart from Brexit and I'm not sure whether that's Deal or No Deal.
I think that it was the new Brexit Party MEP from Scotland (name escapes me). He stated at a public meeting in Edinburgh (?) that his party was “neutral” on the Scottish independence question. No media outlet seems to have recorded his words.
Probably just a blatant lie to try to lure pro-Brexit SNP supporters. UKIP/BRX have zero history on neutrality regarding the Union.
Thanks. The 'best' evidence of anything approaching a policy eh!
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
What do WTO terms offer on financial services? What do FTAs offer on financial services, for example Australia's FTAs with China and the USA?
What do the EUs FTAs offer on Financial Services. Or is it not a priority for them?
Independent we can prioritise that.
Funnily enough, I bet you a vast majority of Brexit Party voters in small towns in the North and the Midlands couldn't give two shits about financial services.
Difference is that both May and BXP are crap at campaigning. Boris isn't.
Campaigns have never had that huge an impact on GE results. Some just like to console themselves with the idea that if May had campaigned better she would have retained her 20% lead. Does anyone really believe that?
On the contrary, in my lifetime I have never experienced a campaign that had such a hugely negatively impact on a GE result as the utterly crap campaign orchestrated by May in 2017 which undoubtably cost her the prospect of a nailed on increase in her majority at the time the election was called.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
Everything is some weird war/submission fantasy to you. You should see a therapist.
To answer your point, you'd happily trade on the fallacy of "WTO terms" with everyone, despite no other country in the world being happy with that arrangement?
Delusional.
Yet another militaristic war obsessed leaver. They really are bordering on psychopathic. I blame the war comics they read as children. Hande hock Tommy.
Good ole DC Thomson of Dundee. I just knew the Tory chumps would turn out to be good for something: turns out their ‘Commando’ jingoistic war comic is about to destroy the Union. Lashings of ginger beer all round!
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
What do WTO terms offer on financial services? What do FTAs offer on financial services, for example Australia's FTAs with China and the USA?
What do the EUs FTAs offer on Financial Services. Or is it not a priority for them?
Independent we can prioritise that.
Funnily enough, I bet you a vast majority of Brexit Party voters in small towns in the North and the Midlands couldn't give two shits about financial services.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
So you're quite happy to hand over parts of the country in return for FTAs? So Scotland under SCOTUS for an FTA, the Falklands under the Argentinian courts for an FTA, Dover to the King of Morocco for an FTA...
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
You're throwing a tantrum because you've discovered the true power balance of our relationship with the EU.
America is the most powerful country in the world.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If they were to insist on that, what would you do? Trade with no one? Throw another tantrum?
If they were to insist that, i'd trade on WTO terms with them.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
Everything is some weird war/submission fantasy to you. You should see a therapist.
To answer your point, you'd happily trade on the fallacy of "WTO terms" with everyone, despite no other country in the world being happy with that arrangement?
Delusional.
Yet another militaristic war obsessed leaver. They really are bordering on psychopathic. I blame the war comics they read as children. Hande hock Tommy.
I'm in my mid-twenties dear.
If we were all colonel blimps in the shire, we'd have never won 52%
Just deluded. Seriously when are the men in white coats going to be called? Tory MPs all seem to believe if they wish it hard enough then Brexit will happen.
Forgetting that nothing has changed and their ultra wing were the ones who stopped us leaving.
Run by me again, how did the relatively small number of ERG nutters prevent the WA passing?
By the simple expedient of voting against it. It's not that complicated.
Well done for ignoring the maths.
What Maths - the only people elected to pass May's deal were MPs wearing a blue rosette. The ERG wore a blue rosette but did not vote for May's deal therefore they are responsible for May's Deal not becoming law.
You can blame other MPs as much as you want but they are not responsible for this mess - the ERG are...
You are forgetting the first rule of Brexiteers, which we see time and time again:
It's all someone else's fault!
Brexiteers are awesome, and therefore anything that goes against the brilliance they foresee is not their fault (for they are awesome), but someone else's. Even when they fail, it's because someone else did a bad job, not because they are clueless.
It is the default position of extremists. Victimhood and a bizarre mix of thinking they are superior whilst at the same time thinking "the enemy" is out to get them. Negative fuckwits. They are beyond parody or mockery.
Comments
1. Everything was good in the 1950's, before society went to hell
2. Everything was good before Thatcher, before society went to hell
3. Everything was good before Brexit, before society went to hell
In truth, there is a lot more right than wrong with the way this country works.
He's held, and been inept at, high office, and his position as a leading light in the referendum campaign has turned off significant numbers of voters (many in London).
I remain unconvinced his ageing court jester schtick will fly. We may find out.
How can pro-WA Remainers claim to care about the Union when they want to hand over the province on a plate, in return for some promise of a trade deal? And that's without taking into account the boost that would give Scottish independence.
No Deal is how the Union survives intact. As it did for hundreds of years before we joined the European Union. Let the SNP/Sinn Fein argue for the Euro.
It's more like we have been living in a flat share with 27 housemates who insist on keeping the curtains close. We have decided to move out and get our own semi detached house rather than continue in the flat share. We may get less light from the flat but we can open our curtains at will to the rest of the world.
Who has a trade deal with the USA: The EU or Australia?
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1138566927935254528?s=21
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
You can't answer it can you.
Just about anything you care to discover about Singapore demonstrates why it is an exceedingly poor model for the future of the UK.
Though it was expelled from the short lived Malaysian federation...
It's a great shame that May's way of doing things has made matters so much harder for her successor. Talking up leaving without a deal, then failing to prepare for no deal, then rowing back utterly (leaving the rhetoric as a handy space for the ERG and making it hard to refute), and signing up to something that the Commons just doesn't want is not great.
That doesn't absolve MPs of their own responsibilities, of course. Triggering Article 50 then opposing the deal, and no deal, and not even backing a second referendum/revocation, is infantile.
Take the actual vote intention from the ComRes poll (on the assumption that the froth of leadership will die down to the base state)
Lab 27, Con 23, Bxp 22, LD 17, Green 5
Assume the same errors as with the last ComRes poll for the Euro elections (so 3 off of Con, 8 off of Lab, 6 on to LD, 5 on to Green, no change to Bxp)
Gives LD 23, Bxp 22, Con 20, Lab 19, Green 10.
Run this through Electoral Calculus, including tactical voting for the remnant Tories, for Lib Dems and for Lab (but not for Brexit Party, because there is no record of who are the challengers and the Brexit Party voters are doing so because they're too angry with the Tories to vote for them - like ex-LD tactical voters in 2015)
And we get: Brexit 237, Lab 149, LD 111, Con 75, SNP 55
Now, we learned from Peterborough that the Brexit Party simply don't have a polished ground game. This puts them at a a disadvantage compared to the established parties. Given that a huge chunk of these Brexit Party wins are with very small projected percentages (2-3% or so), this makes a huge difference. You could expect about 90 of those seats to fall heartbreakingly short for them after all. These would go to the established parties, and, in the random-number generator that is FPTP at these levels, probably fairly evenly spread. About 20-40 each.
So Lab 169-189, LD 131-151, Brexit 147 or so, Con 95-115.
Round to nearest five to reflect necessary imprecision and put a similar variance around Brexit Party for that as well:
Lab 170-190, Brexit 135-155, LD 130-150, Con 95-115.
So Lab largest party but sub-200, photo finish between LD and Brexit for second, Con fourth.
This is fun.
Isn't Farage supposed to be a fantastic campaigner? He was all over the Peterborough BE after having just won the Euros and he lost.
Keep grasping at straws.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Absurd. No other country is forced to carve itself up in return for a Free Trade Agreement. We shouldn't subject our country to it. The EU can shove it.
Good men rarely prosper in politics.
Or much else, for that matter. They usually lose the woman of their dreams to right bastards.
Personal experience?
Brexit with No Deal in Oct.
Slash tax for high earners.
Fund the tax cut by spending the money set aside for a No Deal Brexit in Oct.
Hard to credit. He appears to be taking the majority of the Tory membership for blinkered fools.
Why on earth would he do that?
(Has anyone got a decent link to support this neutrality?)
You can blame other MPs as much as you want but they are not responsible for this mess - the ERG are...
No Farage is not a fantastic campaigner, when have I ever said that? He has never won a by-election where it wasn't the incumbent defending the seat and Vote Leave rightly knew that if he'd have been front man of the Leave campaign then Remain would have won.
And we can argue the toss whether a customs border within our own country is more or less unacceptable to the Commons than 'leaving' the EU only to enter an arrangement we can't leave without their consent.
The other day I suggested a compromise of a 10 year backstop period to negotiate/implement a permanent alternative. Nobody replied, alas.
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/596528042756993025
The latest Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index showed New York overtaking the UK's capital for the first time since 2015.
The City think tank, which compiles its lists using data from international bodies such as the World Bank and responses to a survey, said there was evidence London had been knocked, but only slightly, by uncertainty over Brexit.
Rivals within the EU for financial services business currently in the UK were among the cities making the greatest strides, the report said, though Asian centres stood out.
"Zurich, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Vienna, and Milan moved up the rankings significantly.
"These centres may be the main beneficiaries of the uncertainty caused by Brexit."'
https://news.sky.com/story/london-loses-top-spot-in-global-financial-centre-rankings-11495765
Edit: to add date - Sept 2018. March 2019 figures show nyc extending its lead.
The BBC is a world-renowned organisation of which Britain should be proud.
Sadly, its days seem to be numbered due to a combination of changing technology, an onslaught from private media interests, and a lack of care from successive governments.
The costs should be wrapped up in general taxation but they won't. The BBC will wither and die, and with it a significant chunk of Britain's soft influence across the world will go.
Should we submit to their courts for an FTA? Don't be so ridiculous.
If he is good at campaigning, why does he refuse to do so?
If he is so clever, why are his words and actions so stupid?
It's all someone else's fault!
Brexiteers are awesome, and therefore anything that goes against the brilliance they foresee is not their fault (for they are awesome), but someone else's. Even when they fail, it's because someone else did a bad job, not because they are clueless.
No, I don't believe that the Conservatives will get a 140 seat majority at the next GE with Johnson as leader. However, they have a good chance of getting a workable majority better than that which May gave up. And in anticipation of that possibility, the EU would then have to mull over whether it is better to make some limited concessions now rather than going down a road which would most likely force a general election leading to a workable majority for any form of Brexit including No Deal.
As for Stewart, the ComRes polling does show a higher percentage of undecided DKs (31%) as would be expected for someone little known until now. However, 236 of those DKs voted Leave in 2016, compared to 218 who voted Remain. The balance for Leave does not suggest that Stewart could do markedly better if his arch Remainer views became known amongst undecided voters.
The EU don't care about Great Britain their cared about the island of Ireland..
Ok, that's my special interest, but it was also the most successful sports coverage on the BBC in terms of hitting targets. And they threw it away, voluntarily approaching Sky so the coverage went behind a pay wall instead of a free-to-air rival.
I hardly watch anything other than news on the BBC. It's not hard to see support declining for a broadcaster that doesn't broadcast programmes people want to watch (there are exceptions, Attenborough stuff, despite developing a 5 minute preach at the end, is excellent).
(Whatever happened to Labour’s “Settled Will”? Was nobody in London paying attention?)
This is absolutely true and a point missed by the PB-Tory Venezuela conspiracy-theorists.
LIKE. WE. DO. NOW.
Grow a spine for god's sake and get off your knees.
Apart from that the rest of your argument is perfectly valid...
If he refuses the TV debates I agree he shouldn't be leader.
In the case of the EU we are an equal member and the ECJ is our court, not 'theirs'.
In the case of the US it would be their courts - unless we became the 51st state.
We wouldn't accept it with any other power, nor do we with the EU.
To answer your point, you'd happily trade on the fallacy of "WTO terms" with everyone, despite no other country in the world being happy with that arrangement?
Delusional.
The FTA dynamics between the relevant parties are very different.
Probably just a blatant lie to try to lure pro-Brexit SNP supporters. UKIP/BRX have zero history on neutrality regarding the Union.
Independent we can prioritise that.
If the author (of the original tweet) knows that little, then I despair.
If we were all colonel blimps in the shire, we'd have never won 52%
https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/1138736731363119104