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DecrepitJohnL

Last on the previous thread.

RobD

DecrepitJohnL said:

Last on the previous thread.

Second last!

DecrepitJohnL

Boris will doubtless tell us he will deliver Brexit, unite the party and win a general election. He might play down his policy of making Scots pay more tax.

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

edmundintokyo

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

eristdoof

DecrepitJohnL said:

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

OblitusSumMe said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton19 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/alicesclaire/status/1138561634300022784

We all maybe surprised by the number of votes he receives in the first round.

Do 267 Tory MPs want to risk losing their seats under Rory though as Comres suggests?

If those Tory MPs have any sense they will recall that at the last election the PM had a poll lead >20 points, but because she was inept, incapable of talking to people and unable to tell a story that could engage the public, she blew almost all that lead and lost Tory seats.

Instead they could choose a leader who can talk to people, has the potential to change minds and just might be the best hope for uniting a very divided country.

If it was all about opinion polls then Theresa May would be PM with a huge majority.

I'm a big fan of opinion polls. Although imperfect, they are the only quantitative evidence that we have. Sometimes, though, you have to go beyond the available evidence and make a judgement call about what you anticipate the future changes could or might be.

I have swallowed the Rory kool-aid in full, and I think he represents the Tories best hope of escaping the trap they currently find themselves in - and saving the country from the shambles of a Corbyn ministry.

May still got 42% and 318 seats and stayed PM and leader of the largest party, Rory is projected to get just 19% and 51 seats and see the Tories fall to 4th place

Apples and oranges. It is meaningless to compare the result of a GE 2 years ago with a opinon poll about hypothetical a GE now. What % do you thin May would get if she called a GE now?

And what was Theresa May polling before she became leader?

Bananas

Casino_Royale

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

Casino_Royale

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

Boris's only chance is a very early election.

The longer he's in office the more likely it is he'll be found out.

Scott_P

Tragic

IanB2

Boris must surely be hoping Labour’s motion and the June 25 follow up go through. Takes one of his big lies off the table.

SouthamObserver

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

DecrepitJohnL

Questions rejected from this year's exams.

MPs are paid £79,468 a year. Boris plans to raise the higher rate income tax threshold to £80,000 a year. How many votes will that buy him?

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

Boris must surely be hoping Labour’s motion and the June 25 follow up go through. Takes one of his big lies off the table.

To avoid the fury of the ERG and the Faragists he still has to deliver a No Deal Brexit. If he doesn't it will be a betrayal.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Rubbish weather recently.

Pulpstar

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

I've left him as a small green, Boris is absolutely par with Leadsom obviously the whopping loss at the cost of a second holiday. I can post here but don't want to be attempting to micromanage a book whilst I'm away from base.

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Rubbish weather recently.

Turns out Mrs Thatcher was right about climate change.

SouthamObserver

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Rubbish weather recently.

Magnificent weather. Rain is a beautiful thing. Especially when it has been dry for so long.

OblitusSumMe

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

Trump made it through an election campaign promising that Mexico would pay for a border wall. I don't see why Johnson can't make it through an election campaign claiming that the EU will agree to his renegotiation demands in whatever infeasibly short timescale would remain. Many voters will want to believe that it is true.

Also the main opposition will essentially still be campaigning on a renegotiation position too, blunting any criticism of the Johnson campaign.

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

Unfortunately Corbyn, who is a stupider version of Boris, is the perfect riposte to that argument.

Yes, he still lost. But if Boris increases his vote share by 75% during the campaign, he won't.

(I don't think he will. But it has made others believe he can.)

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Rubbish weather recently.

Turns out Mrs Thatcher was right about climate change.

I thought the whole point of Thatcher was she got rid of the wets.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

edmundintokyo

SouthamObserver said:

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

That's a good question. FPT I think we disagree on the minimum viable renegotiation period; If you believe there's going to be a meaningful renegotiation, you'll believe a lot of other things. I don't think "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal in a week" is significantly less credible than "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal".

Anyhow let me have a go at a schedule, hopefully someone will correct me if I'm wrong, which I probably am.

Leadership election ends in the week beginning 22 July. This seems to be about the time parliament usually buggers off for the summer, but I assume this is something the government controls, and if Boris is the obvious winner I guess whoever is responsible will be helpful to him. Keep the MPs there until they vote through a new election.

The last election was apparently only 25 days after parliament was dissolved, but if we don't want to make people vote in August when they like going on holiday then push it back to the first week of September, eg September 5th.

Two weeks to renegotiate, bring the resulting thing back to parliament, get the EU parliament to pass it too, shove through the other bits of legislation and you're all done in time for late October.

In reality the EU won't renegotiate so carry on swearing at them until late September, then shrug and pass the WA with your big new majority. (Or prepare for No Deal very, very fast, if that's the way you think he'll jump.)

SquareRoot

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

Sorry to repeat it, the polling is nonsense IMHO. Use it to bet at your peril.

RobD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

I wonder how ComRes will feel about their surveys being described as misleading and unacademic.

AlastairMeeks

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

Sorry to repeat it, the polling is nonsense IMHO. Use it to bet at your peril.

The polling may well be nonsense. It will, however, be influential. There are plenty of Tories who want to believe.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.

SquareRoot

AlastairMeeks said:

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

Sorry to repeat it, the polling is nonsense IMHO. Use it to bet at your peril.

The polling may well be nonsense. It will, however, be influential. There are plenty of Tories who want to believe.

but it shouldn't influence.. surely lessons have been learnt from the TMAY GE debacle?

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

A lot can happen over a 5 week election campaign.

I’d say a big risk to him would be the Liberal Democrats getting real traction in 30-40 Tory seats in the south, and northern seats ending up sticking with Labour off another Corbyn spending promise splurge.

SouthamObserver

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

That's a good question. FPT I think we disagree on the minimum viable renegotiation period; If you believe there's going to be a meaningful renegotiation, you'll believe a lot of other things. I don't think "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal is a week" is significantly less credible than "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal".

Anyhow let me have a go at a schedule, hopefully someone will correct me if I'm wrong, which I probably am.

Leadership election ends in the week beginning 22 July. This seems to be about the time parliament usually buggers off for the summer, but I assume this is something the government controls, and if Boris is the obvious winner I guess whoever is responsible will be helpful to him. Keep the MPs there until they vote through a new election.

The last election was apparently only 25 days after parliament was dissolved, but if we don't want to make people vote in August when they like going on holiday then push it back to the first week of September, eg September 5th.

Two weeks to renegotiate, bring the resulting thing back to parliament, get the EU parliament to pass it too, shove through the other bits of legislation and you're all done in time for late October.

In reality the EU won't renegotiate so carry on swearing at them until late September, then shrug and pass the WA with your big new majority. (Or prepare for No Deal very, very fast, if that's the way you think he'll jump.)

A 5th September election means a campaign during August. I just can't see that happening. Too many people will be away. The end of September would surely be the earliest.

On the renegotiation - the May deal is dead. So what would be on the table are the Johnson proposals. He would have to say what they are. Failure to do so would be a gift to Farage. Saying what they are would be a gift to Farage. Johnson would have to campaign on a No Deal platform.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

I've left him as a small green, Boris is absolutely par with Leadsom obviously the whopping loss at the cost of a second holiday. I can post here but don't want to be attempting to micromanage a book whilst I'm away from base.

Yes, I’m similar.

JosiasJessop

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.

If Stewart knows that he still has a lot to learn, then he's head and shoulders above Boris, who seems to think that he knows everything, whilst knowing little about certain areas.

Like common decency and morality.

ydoethur

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

I wonder how ComRes will feel about their surveys being described as misleading and unacademic.

Well, it is a more or less meaningless exercise given Blowjob is the only candidate most voters will have heard of. The numbers won't start to have any meaning at all until about 2-3 months in when people have had a chance to assess the PM.

What is striking about that series of polls - and really might cause some ructions - is that under precisely none of them are Labour anywhere near a majority and in three of the seven are not even the largest party. Given the circumstances that's both astonishing and frankly pathetic.

Casino_Royale

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

Sorry to repeat it, the polling is nonsense IMHO. Use it to bet at your peril.

Depends why you’re betting.

I’m betting on the reaction to it not on the quality or reliability of the poll.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1138479693190062081

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

A lot can happen over a 5 week election campaign.

I’d say a big risk to him would be the Liberal Democrats getting real traction in 30-40 Tory seats in the south, and northern seats ending up sticking with Labour off another Corbyn spending promise splurge.

Yep. Johnson campaigning on a No Deal platform - which he would have to do - would mean epic amounts of tactical voting by those who oppose No Deal, while Johnson's tax cuts for the rich are an absolute gift for Labour in its heartland seats. I just do not see how it ends well for the Tories. However, you can never say never with Corbyn. He is the gift that keeps on giving.

SouthamObserver

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

I think so. The line is Renegotiation, No Deal is still on the table.

Nobody will really believe him but people who want No Deal will think they can force it on him, and people who don't want No Deal mostly think it's so mad that he obviously wouldn't do it, so his plan must be to pass the WA, via either a new election or a referendum.

That's enough to get him through the leadership contest. But the wave function will still collapse in October, so he has to call an election, quick.

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

Trump made it through an election campaign promising that Mexico would pay for a border wall. I don't see why Johnson can't make it through an election campaign claiming that the EU will agree to his renegotiation demands in whatever infeasibly short timescale would remain. Many voters will want to believe that it is true.

Also the main opposition will essentially still be campaigning on a renegotiation position too, blunting any criticism of the Johnson campaign.

My guess is that Labour will triangulate into a renegotiate and referendum position when Johnson becomes PM. That will pull back a lot of people who are now flirting with the LDs and Greens. Loathing of Johnson will also ensure a large tactical vote. However, Corbyn is equally as disliked, so I suspect that an early GE will mean another hung Parliament. And that leaves Johnson taking us to No Deal without a mandate. And that's why I think he will be the last Tory PM we see for a very long time.

edmundintokyo

SouthamObserver said:

A 5th September election means a campaign during August. I just can't see that happening. Too many people will be away. The end of September would surely be the earliest.

There's a deadline, politicians and journalists can suck it up. But if you insist, push it back a week to September 12th, that gives you nearly 2 full weeks of non-August.

SouthamObserver said:

On the renegotiation - the May deal is dead. So what would be on the table are the Johnson proposals. He would have to say what they are. Failure to do so would be a gift to Farage. Saying what they are would be a gift to Farage. Johnson would have to campaign on a No Deal platform.

Take TMay's thing, delete the backstop and pay less money.

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

That's a good question. FPT I think we disagree on the minimum viable renegotiation period; If you believe there's going to be a meaningful renegotiation, you'll believe a lot of other things. I don't think "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal is a week" is significantly less credible than "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal".

Anyhow let me have a go at a schedule, hopefully someone will correct me if I'm wrong, which I probably am.

Leadership election ends in the week beginning 22 July. This seems to be about the time parliament usually buggers off for the summer, but I assume this is something the government controls, and if Boris is the obvious winner I guess whoever is responsible will be helpful to him. Keep the MPs there until they vote through a new election.

The last election was apparently only 25 days after parliament was dissolved, but if we don't want to make people vote in August when they like going on holiday then push it back to the first week of September, eg September 5th.


In reality the EU won't renegotiate so carry on swearing at them until late September, then shrug and pass the WA with your big new majority. (Or prepare for No Deal very, very fast, if that's the way you think he'll jump.)

A 5th September election means a campaign during August. I just can't see that happening. Too many people will be away. The end of September would surely be the earliest.

On the renegotiation - the May deal is dead. So what would be on the table are the Johnson proposals. He would have to say what they are. Failure to do so would be a gift to Farage. Saying what they are would be a gift to Farage. Johnson would have to campaign on a No Deal platform.

A lot of older people take September holidays. The prices are lower and the resorts, both here and abroad, are quieter.

eek

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

When is the earliest a general election can happen realistically? I just do not see how there is time to hold one and then even remotely credibly have any kind of renegotiation with the EU before the 31st October deadline. That will mean Johnson de facto going into an election looking for a No Deal mandate. And that's what the entire campaign will be about. It will split the Tories, provide huge opportunities for Farage and ensure epic tactical voting. It is hard to imagine it ending well - especially given Johnson's severe limitations.

That's a good question. FPT I think we disagree on the minimum viable renegotiation period; If you believe there's going to be a meaningful renegotiation, you'll believe a lot of other things. I don't think "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal in a week" is significantly less credible than "The EU will renegotiate TMay's deal".

Anyhow let me have a go at a schedule, hopefully someone will correct me if I'm wrong, which I probably am.

Leadership election ends in the week beginning 22 July. This seems to be about the time parliament usually buggers off for the summer, but I assume this is something the government controls, and if Boris is the obvious winner I guess whoever is responsible will be helpful to him. Keep the MPs there until they vote through a new election.

The last election was apparently only 25 days after parliament was dissolved, but if we don't want to make people vote in August when they like going on holiday then push it back to the first week of September, eg September 5th.

Two weeks to renegotiate, bring the resulting thing back to parliament, get the EU parliament to pass it too, shove through the other bits of legislation and you're all done in time for late October.

In reality the EU won't renegotiate so carry on swearing at them until late September, then shrug and pass the WA with your big new majority. (Or prepare for No Deal very, very fast, if that's the way you think he'll jump.)

The flaw in that plan is your big new majority - the next Parliament will be more hung than this one. I seriously expect that no Party will be close to a majority and I suspect it will require 3 parties to form something that would pass a VoNC...

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.

I am not sure he has much more to learn than his rivals. What he seems to lack is any kind of hinterland within the Tory party. That's what he needs to build over the next year to 18 months.

AlastairMeeks

SquareRoot said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

Sorry to repeat it, the polling is nonsense IMHO. Use it to bet at your peril.

The polling may well be nonsense. It will, however, be influential. There are plenty of Tories who want to believe.

but it shouldn't influence.. surely lessons have been learnt from the TMAY GE debacle?

We’re dealing with a cohort who have persuaded themselves that no deal Brexit is a good idea. They’re grasping onto any evidence that supports their prejudices.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1138516893369872384

IanB2

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

Sorry to repeat it, the polling is nonsense IMHO. Use it to bet at your peril.

The Boris upside is surely twaddle, unless he is somehow able to get a GE completed during what will probably be a remarkably short honeymoon.

The more interesting question is whether the prospect of a Boris PM galvanises the opposition parties into greater co-operation and/or Spurs a concerted drive for tactical voting.

swing_voter

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.

I am not sure he has much more to learn than his rivals. What he seems to lack is any kind of hinterland within the Tory party. That's what he needs to build over the next year to 18 months.

he seems to have had the best campaign, but winning over PB posters, twitter commentariat and Guardian readers does not make him PM...I see him being a DPM or Foreign Sec if the eventual winner has any sense. he may just bring younger/urban voters back in - though he is no Cameron.

AlastairMeeks

Anyway, I’ve organised my position so that Boris Johnson would be a winning bet for me now. He’d be an absolutely terrible choice but the Conservatives seem determined to make it.

TheKitchenCabinet

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

I wonder how ComRes will feel about their surveys being described as misleading and unacademic.

One thing is that the other right wing newspapers won't like The Telegraph promoting Boris as their candidate, if only because it means the Telegraph will get a lot of kudos. So expect some anti-Boris sniping, especially from the Mail.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

Sorry to repeat it, the polling is nonsense IMHO. Use it to bet at your peril.

The Boris upside is surely twaddle, unless he is somehow able to get a GE completed during what will probably be a remarkably short honeymoon.

The more interesting question is whether the prospect of a Boris PM galvanises the opposition parties into greater co-operation and/or Spurs a concerted drive for tactical voting.

I'd say that widespread tactical voting is an absolute given. However, Corbyn is a barrier to its maximisation.

SouthamObserver

swing_voter said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.

I am not sure he has much more to learn than his rivals. What he seems to lack is any kind of hinterland within the Tory party. That's what he needs to build over the next year to 18 months.

he seems to have had the best campaign, but winning over PB posters, twitter commentariat and Guardian readers does not make him PM...I see him being a DPM or Foreign Sec if the eventual winner has any sense. he may just bring younger/urban voters back in - though he is no Cameron.

Hasn't he already said he would not be a part of a Johnson government? He would be very wise to stick to that.

IanB2

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1138516893369872384

”Brexit is dead,” one EU diplomat told me recently. Surprised by the bluntness of this assertion, I countered that it was very much alive. The clarification came back: yes, obviously it could still happen, and on the worst possible terms, but viewed from the outside, intellectually, as a proposition based on the original 2016 arguments for leaving the EU, the debate is over. Not even the most nationalistic parties in other member states contemplate taking Euroscepticism to the lengths taken in Britain.”

DecrepitJohnL

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1138566611009507329

I wonder how ComRes will feel about their surveys being described as misleading and unacademic.

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

SquareRoot

IanB2 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1138516893369872384

”Brexit is dead,” one EU diplomat told me recently. Surprised by the bluntness of this assertion, I countered that it was very much alive. The clarification came back: yes, obviously it could still happen, and on the worst possible terms, but viewed from the outside, intellectually, as a proposition based on the original 2016 arguments for leaving the EU, the debate is over. Not even the most nationalistic parties in other member states contemplate taking Euroscepticism to the lengths taken in Britain.”

Guardian opinions???. You have to have two eyes, metaphorically speaking, in order to form an opinion.

Scott_P

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Foxy

Good morning all!

Have we declared war on johnny foreigner yet?

Foxy

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

DecrepitJohnL

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyway, I’ve organised my position so that Boris Johnson would be a winning bet for me now. He’d be an absolutely terrible choice but the Conservatives seem determined to make it.

Me too. Though I can't help feeling this can still go horribly wrong. Well, wrong anyway, from the punting point of view.

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyway, I’ve organised my position so that Boris Johnson would be a winning bet for me now. He’d be an absolutely terrible choice but the Conservatives seem determined to make it.

I have gone all green, though only by a tiny amount unless Hunt wins. A runoff between Hunt and Johnson would suit.

TheJezziah

Johnson would be a fitting finale to the terrible trio...

David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson. Labour are going to dine out on their reign for decades...

If the Tories survive.

Foxy

I reckon the public do not like unnecessary elections, punishing those that call one, and that was a major factor in May's fiasco of 2017.

Viceroy_of_Orange

Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes) Indeed, if that poll is anything to go by, there wouldn't be much of a Conservative Party left to lead for Rory Stewart. Him, Grieve and Letwin? Ha ha ha.

Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

Nigelb

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've laid off most of my Rory Stewart off the back of the ComRes poll at about 24/1.

I think it will have a dramatic effect on Tory MPs, and his odds had already shortened anyway due to Betfair's overreaction to his big speech yesterday.

The Stewart bet should be next but one Tory leader. He is setting himself up perfectly for that as the "Told You So" candidate.

Possibly, he has talent but still has a lot to learn.

On both scores that’s an improvement on the rest of his party.

DecrepitJohnL

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

It is inspired guesswork because none of the seat models are based on four parties taking roughly equal vote shares, even if we assume a general election would be dominated by Brexit, which seems unlikely.

DavidL

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris will doubtless tell us he will deliver Brexit, unite the party and win a general election. He might play down his policy of making Scots pay more tax.

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

We don't need Boris to pay more tax. The Scottish government sees to that already.

SouthamObserver

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

eek

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?

ydoethur

DavidL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris will doubtless tell us he will deliver Brexit, unite the party and win a general election. He might play down his policy of making Scots pay more tax.

The question is whether he can avoid collapsing the wave function on Schrodinger's Brexit, where Boris has led Leavers to believe we will be out at the end of October, and Remainers to believe he will keep us in.

We don't need Boris to pay more tax. The Scottish government sees to that already.

I'm very much at ease with the idea of Boris paying more tax.

It's the suggestion the rest of us should that I'm not struck on.

MarqueeMark

IanB2 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1138516893369872384

”Brexit is dead,” one EU diplomat told me recently. Surprised by the bluntness of this assertion, I countered that it was very much alive. The clarification came back: yes, obviously it could still happen, and on the worst possible terms, but viewed from the outside, intellectually, as a proposition based on the original 2016 arguments for leaving the EU, the debate is over. Not even the most nationalistic parties in other member states contemplate taking Euroscepticism to the lengths taken in Britain.”

Replace "Brexit is dead" with "Democracy is dead", and you can see why the Eurocrat is so chipper. democracy is always the one pesky thing that might just get in their way.

This is why Boris will win the leadership, call an election and win that election big. There is no bigger issue that resonates in domestic politics than the principle of having a voice that is heard.

Oh, and 25,000th.

Gallowgate

Surely the parties are now commissioning constituency by constituency polls like that YouGov one last election that was incredibly accurate?

Viceroy_of_Orange

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?

Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464

IanB2

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

SquareRoot

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

You must be bonkers.. you'd rather have Corbyn?

IanB2

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyway, I’ve organised my position so that Boris Johnson would be a winning bet for me now. He’d be an absolutely terrible choice but the Conservatives seem determined to make it.

Me too. Though I can't help feeling this can still go horribly wrong. Well, wrong anyway, from the punting point of view.

I know. Initial instinct is so often right, as with P’Boro where I backed Labour from the start, then protected my position by sacrificing my winnings as polling day approached. I have been red on Boris from the beginning, and refuse to back him directly, but am certainly welcoming opportunities to reduce my exposure by laying any others where I can.

Gallowgate

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

I wouldn’t. I want no part in this shit show.

Luckily I live in a very safe Labour Tyneside seat...

eek

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?

Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464

When was that conducted.

Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..

IanB2

SquareRoot said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

You must be bonkers.. you'd rather have Corbyn?

Than Boris? For sure. (Edit/ especially as the odds are that either the SNP or LibDems would have the balance and keep him sane)

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1138697947527471104

matt

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1138516893369872384

”Brexit is dead,” one EU diplomat told me recently. Surprised by the bluntness of this assertion, I countered that it was very much alive. The clarification came back: yes, obviously it could still happen, and on the worst possible terms, but viewed from the outside, intellectually, as a proposition based on the original 2016 arguments for leaving the EU, the debate is over. Not even the most nationalistic parties in other member states contemplate taking Euroscepticism to the lengths taken in Britain.”

Replace "Brexit is dead" with "Democracy is dead", and you can see why the Eurocrat is so chipper. democracy is always the one pesky thing that might just get in their way.

This is why Boris will win the leadership, call an election and win that election big. There is no bigger issue that resonates in domestic politics than the principle of having a voice that is heard.

Oh, and 25,000th.

“free stuff” beats it every time.

AlastairMeeks

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyway, I’ve organised my position so that Boris Johnson would be a winning bet for me now. He’d be an absolutely terrible choice but the Conservatives seem determined to make it.

I have gone all green, though only by a tiny amount unless Hunt wins. A runoff between Hunt and Johnson would suit.

I’m very red on Andrea Leadsom and fairly red on Rory Stewart. Otherwise everyone’s a winner.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

Yep, Johnson is the Trump candidate:

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-supporters-want-no-deal-brexit-and-less-talk-of-climate-change-new-survey-of-party-members-reveals-118633

Given our voting system there is only one way to stop him, unfortunately.

Viceroy_of_Orange

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?

Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464

When was that conducted.

Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..

All of that is true. Polls are only a snapshot.

But it clearly shows Boris is their only hope.

IanB2

Gallowgate said:

Surely the parties are now commissioning constituency by constituency polls like that YouGov one last election that was incredibly accurate?

YouGov has the advantage of having a LOT of data on their 70,000 panellists to back up their analysis, which you can’t replicate with a one off commission (unless you pay YouGov, I guess).

And no, I am NOT SeanT despite the giveaway tic of a SINGLE word in caps for emphasis...

RochdalePioneers

FrancisUrquhart said:

What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1138699515685474304

StuartDickson

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?

Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464

When was that conducted.

Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..

There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.

kjohnw

Foxy said:

I reckon the public do not like unnecessary elections, punishing those that call one, and that was a major factor in May's fiasco of 2017.

By the results of EU elections they are angry that democracy is not delivering the result of their wishes in 2016, a new PM has the right to get a mandate especially when parliament is being so obstructive to delivering brexit

AlastairMeeks

Long but useful thread on movements in Remain/Leave support:

https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1138426134184546310?s=21

nichomar

Do we know if com res primed the respondents first on the candidates perceived brexit position or just asked by name?

Sean_F

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Rory Stewart absolutely bombing with Conservative MPs, Conservative members and members of the public who would consider voting Conservative. (ComRes)

Could the people on these forums and Twitter *be* anymore out of touch? It's just hilarious to see the analysis/bile on here directed at Boris, McVey and Raab by rabid Remainers and then the reaction of everyone else. Just like the referendum itself I guess.

I can understand where you are getting the Conservative MP details from but how do you know what all Conservative members and members of the public think?

Did you see the ComRes poll last night?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464

When was that conducted.

Equally in 2017 May had a 25% lead as the campaign began look where that got here.

And that's before Boris on a No Deal platform sees organised No No Deal tactical voting on a level never seen before (the internet makes things possibly in ways that were never previously the case)..

I think he'd be a far better campaigner than May was, and would win an early election. That does not mean he would make a good PM.

IanB2

kjohnw said:

Foxy said:

I reckon the public do not like unnecessary elections, punishing those that call one, and that was a major factor in May's fiasco of 2017.

By the results of EU elections they are angry that democracy is not delivering the result of their wishes in 2016, a new PM has the right to get a mandate especially when parliament is being so obstructive to delivering brexit

I don't think that was motivating the largest slice that voted for the LibDems, Greens, Nats and CUK?

Viceroy_of_Orange

Imagine my shock.

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1138699973506342912

Sean_F

RochdalePioneers said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.

True.

StuartDickson

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1138699515685474304

Priti Patel was absolutely dire on the Pienaar’s Politics podcast. True head in hands nonsense about 31 October. This explains why Boris is invisible: none of his arguments stand up to even rudimentary scrutiny.

Scott_P

nichomar said:

Do we know if com res primed the respondents first on the candidates perceived brexit position or just asked by name?

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1138682164353032192

RochdalePioneers

kjohnw said:

Foxy said:

I reckon the public do not like unnecessary elections, punishing those that call one, and that was a major factor in May's fiasco of 2017.

By the results of EU elections they are angry that democracy is not delivering the result of their wishes in 2016, a new PM has the right to get a mandate especially when parliament is being so obstructive to delivering brexit

And that is the election campaign. Boris will be PM next month. He will have a meeting with Barnier who will tell him the deal is the deal is the deal. So the idea that he starts to renegotiate in September is surely nonsense as there is nothing to renegotiate and no appetite for further delay.

Boris is also sat at the head of a minority government, very minority when it comes to Brexit. So an election it surely has to be: kill Farage and Corbyn in one go. Why do we need the Brexit Party when the Tories want no deal? Why do we need the Labour Party when the LibDems want remain?

17th or 24th October for the election, with Boris winning and the UK crashing out to competing leave celebrations / remain protests in the street.

AlastairMeeks

The view from Singapore:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1138697101234397184?s=21

Viceroy_of_Orange

RochdalePioneers said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.

A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.

Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.

It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.

Very true.

And losing Grieve, Letwin etc is the cherry on top.

Then, for me as a Leaver/Ukipper since 2007, it'll be project complete.

eek

StuartDickson said:

There is not a single seat in Scotland where the SNP is not in either first or second place. If there is mass No No Deal tactical voting, there is only going to be one beneficiary north of the border.

Yep - the Tories in Scotland would be wiped out again - as probably would Labour.
For the rest of the country the question is - will northern Labour Leave seats vote for Boris, will Nigel split that vote or will Labour keep enough to retain the seat.

IanB2

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From the Telegraph, under Boris, and this is their best result: the [Conservative] party retaining almost seven in 10 of their 2017 voters

70 per cent. Perhaps they should keep Theresa May!

It's not immediately obvious how losing 30% of their 2017 vote gains them 140 seats...

It's the collapse of the Labour vote, isn't it?

Yes, just like in 2017...

Oh, I don't think the Labour vote will collapse if Johnson is PM. I think he is Labour's very best chance of keeping its 2017 coalition together. I use myself as an example here. I didn't actually vote Labour in 2017. I would do so to stop Johnson, who is every bit as racist as Corbyn and likely to align the UK closely with Trump. And I live in a marginal.

If I lived in a seat where Labour stood a chance, and Boris was the Tory leader, I’d consider it too. And I can’t imagine any other circumstances when I would.

Yep, Johnson is the Trump candidate:

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-supporters-want-no-deal-brexit-and-less-talk-of-climate-change-new-survey-of-party-members-reveals-118633

Given our voting system there is only one way to stop him, unfortunately.

Depends where you live. LibDems are better placed to beat the Tories in the remainer-Home Counties, as the Euro elections just showed, despite dropping behind Labour in many of them in the 2017 GE. A lot will depend on whether the parties and whatever tactical voting drive there might be recognises this.

StuartDickson

Gallowgate said:

Surely the parties are now commissioning constituency by constituency polls like that YouGov one last election that was incredibly accurate?

Undoubtedly.

Ruthie will have to order a whole new batch of breeks.

eek

kjohnw said:

Foxy said:

I reckon the public do not like unnecessary elections, punishing those that call one, and that was a major factor in May's fiasco of 2017.

By the results of EU elections they are angry that democracy is not delivering the result of their wishes in 2016, a new PM has the right to get a mandate especially when parliament is being so obstructive to delivering brexit

Remember only 37% of the population voted in the EU elections and only 32% voted for Nigel - that's a total of 11.8% of the population.

There is no way that's a majority - it may impact a general election I suspect it won't determine it.