> @Cyclefree said: > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade. > > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this
> @Byronic said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Given Hunt as far as we know would sell his grandmother to get the keys to No 10, we must assume his aberrant moment of common sense is calculated somehow to bring him perceived advantage. My guess is that he wants the consequences of No Deal to be discussed so Johnson doesn't airily go on about buccaneering no deals sit being challenged. Or possibly Hunt reckons MPs are (rightly) terrified of the thought of No Deal and they will put him forward to the blue rinsed mob because he will do less damage. > > > > And you don't think the other candidates spend all day thinking this kind of minute tactical detail out? < > > ++++ > > Well apparently Boris doesn't, otherwise he wouldn't have made that crazy, purposeless commitment to "leaving by Halloween", thus entirely boxing himself in - just as T May did. > > He didn't have to do it. He could have said "we are leaving, no ifs and no buts", and left it at that. Instead he committed himself to a stance which is, many think, totally undeliverable just because of the parliamentary calendar, need for time to legislate etc etc > > He thus painted a massive Farage-sized target on his back, for no reason whatsoever. > > Until Boris did that, I thought he was potentially worth the risk. No longer.
If a Tory PM extends again in October the Tories face Canadian Conservatives 1993 style obliteration at the hands of Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election after which you would be literally lucky to count the number of Tory MPs on 1 hand.
As last night's results where the Tories won ZERO local authorities in the entire UK confirms Boris was simple stating the obvious
He used to run the police and then the economic portfolio in London while Boris was doing the photo ops.
And as we know he is a man who knows how to deliver a compromise!
All I remember about the Malthouse Compromise was that it seemed complicated, and gave the impression of having been sketched out desperately on the back of a beer mat by sides frantic to reach a middle ground no matter how stitched together and unworkable.
That may not be a fair reflection of its actual workability, but I don't think it speaks well of how well they sold it as a realistic option that it confused me so.
Pleasant night all. Just 2-3 months and with new leaders in Brexit messing about can start again in earnest - at present it is all just akin to pre-game banter to fill time before kick off, or rather gladitorial contest to the death.
Not quite. The Malthouse Compromise was of the "We have a problem. You will need to compromise" sort, to which the answer was, "You don't understand. YOU have the problem. YOU compromise."
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @ReggieCide said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again. > > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM > > > > > > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two. > > > > > > > > > > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in. > > > > And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party. > > How do you feel the difference between MPs "playing silly buggers" and MPs collectively deciding that other candidates are preferable in sufficient numbers to leave Johnson third or lower?
Won't that depend largely on who does make it to the final two? If MPs put up McVey and Gove, I suspect activists will then say fair enough, if they go for Hunt vs Stewart I'd expect there to be mass decampment.
> I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this
Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements?
How many have been renegotiated so far?
What happens in the meanwhile?
I don’t mean to be rude but if your answer is reflective of what Tory No Deal candidates think, then they don’t have a fucking clue.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Plus of course if we get to October and PM Hunt requests a further extension of Art 50 if a Deal has not been completed by then it is hard not to see how the Tories will not be obliterated by Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election if last night is anything to go by > > For the sake of argument, say they had a further extension from October this year but somehow got Brexit done a year later, why would the defining issue in the 2022 GE be whether the Tories got Brexit done in October 2019 or October 2020???
They would not get Brexit done a year later as there would still be no Commons majority for the WA and the EU would extend for longer and longer periods, no the Tories would be annihilated by Farage
I have a feeling that Rory Stewart is to the Conservative Party as Jon Huntsman was to the GOP - a plausibly good candidate who never stood a chance because the Party is marching to the extremes.
> @ReggieCide said: > > @HYUFD said: > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again. > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM > > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two. > > > > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
I suspect Boris or Raab would win the membership vote easily if they get to it, as would McVey.
I also suspect Gove would beat Hunt if MPs conspired to keep Boris or Raab off the ballot but there might be a lot of spoilt ballot papers
> @ah009 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Plus of course if we get to October and PM Hunt requests a further extension of Art 50 if a Deal has not been completed by then it is hard not to see how the Tories will not be obliterated by Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election if last night is anything to go by > > Last night probably isn't a lot to go by chime a general election. > I guarantee you the Lib Dems, Greens and Brexit Nigel Party won't hold on to their vote share. > Nor will ChUK now I think of it.
I think it is likely the Brexit Party will be ahead in a Westminster poll within the next fortnight and I also think the LDs will be back to close to 20% too
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @ReggieCide said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again. > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM > > > > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two. > > > > > > > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in. > > And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party.
I'd have thought the logical switch path for those that wish to leave without a deal would be as follows :.
Baker -> McVey -> Raab, then possibly Gove if Raab is knocked out
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again. > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM > > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two. > > > > He is rapidly appearing to have the consistency of Boris, but absent any kind of charisma.
Hunt is Theresa May without the decisiveness and electability
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade. > > > > > > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they? > > > > Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU. > > > > However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this > > Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements? > > How many have been renegotiated so far? > > What happens in the meanwhile?
Show trials of civil servants, by the sound of it.
> @Cyclefree said: > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade. > > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
> @Pulpstar said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @ReggieCide said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again. > > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM > > > > > > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two. > > > > > > > > > > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in. > > > > And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party. > > I'd have thought the logical switch path for those that wish to leave without a deal would be as follows :. > > Baker -> McVey -> Raab, then possibly Gove if Raab is knocked out > > The softer Brexit path would be > > Stewart -> Hunt or Javid > > Which lane is Boris in ?
Boris is in the Boris lane. He transcends all others... But that doesn't necessarily mean he'll get to the last two in Commons phase of the leadership election.
> > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> >
>
> > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
>
>
>
> Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
>
>
>
> However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this
>
> Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements?
>
> How many have been renegotiated so far?
>
> What happens in the meanwhile?
Show trials of civil servants, by the sound of it.
It does now rather feel that the only reason to do Brexit is to save the Tory party. And that in order to save themselves they are quite prepared to inflict any amount of damage on the country and, indeed, on the EU. And then, bless, renegotiate all these agreements they’ve just torn up and get an FTA as well.
> @HYUFD said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again. > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM > > > > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two. > > > > > > > He is rapidly appearing to have the consistency of Boris, but absent any kind of charisma. > > Hunt is Theresa May without the decisiveness and electability
More than half (53%) of 2017 Conservative voters who took part in the European elections voted for the Brexit Party. Only just over one in five (21%) stayed with the Tories. Around one in eight (12%) switched to the Liberal Democrats. Labour voters from 2017 were more likely to stay with their party, but only a minority (38%) did so. More than one in five (22%) went to the Lib Dems, 17% switched to the Greens, and 13% went to the Brexit Party.
For all the success of the Lib Dems in these elections, only 69% of their 2017 voters stuck with them: 13% switched to the Green Party and 7% backed the Brexit Party. Nearly seven in ten 2017 UKIP voters (68%) switched to the Brexit Party, with just under a quarter (24%) staying put.......
....Only one in three (32%) of 2017 Tories who switched to the Brexit Party said they would come home at the next general election; 52% currently say they will stay with the Brexit Party. Conservatives who switched to the Lib Dems say they are even more likely to stay put: 61% now say they will vote Lib Dem again at the general election, with only 22% saying they expect to return to the Tories. Overall, only 43% of 2017 Conservative voters who turned out in the European elections say they will vote Tory at the next general election.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @isam said: > > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”? > > Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government) > > Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose... Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century
> I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
Depressing, isn't it?
Yes.
I am starting work on a new project tomorrow so I will not be around much anymore - for a while anyway. You’re probably all sick of me by now anyway. It’s just as well. The level of delusion and destructiveness and sheer ignorance and dishonesty being exhibited by the Tories and Farage’s mob and Labour is infuriating.
They are doing what all simple-minded populists do. They take a genuine problem - the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, blow it up into a huge problem as if it’s the only issue that matters then come up with a ludicrously simplistic answer to that problem, which simply will not work and will create even more problems. And when anyone takes them to task or asks any questions or raises any sort of issue they shout about treachery and betrayal.
I’ve had enough of it. I will go and bang my head on another brick wall for a bit. At least I will be getting paid handsomely for it.
> @ah009 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again. > > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM > > > > > > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two. > > > > > > > > > > He is rapidly appearing to have the consistency of Boris, but absent any kind of charisma. > > > > Hunt is Theresa May without the decisiveness and electability > > You... You think May is decisive?
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade. > > > > > > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they? > > > > Depressing, isn't it? > > Yes. > > I am starting work on a new project tomorrow so I will not be around much anymore - for a while anyway. You’re probably all sick of me by now anyway. It’s just as well. The level of delusion and destructiveness and sheer ignorance and dishonesty being exhibited by the Tories and Farage’s mob and Labour is infuriating. > > They are doing what all simple-minded populists do. They take a genuine problem - the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, blow it up into a huge problem as if it’s the only issue that matters then come up with a ludicrously simplistic answer to that problem, which simply will not work and will create even more problems. And when anyone takes them to task or asks any questions or raises any sort of issue they shout about treachery and betrayal. > > I’ve had enough of it. I will go and bang my head on another brick wall for a bit. At least I will be getting paid handsomely for it. > > Night all.
Already looking forward to your return with more thread headers and comments below the line.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they? > > > > > > > > > > > > Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU. > > > > > > > > > > > > However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this > > > > > > Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements? > > > > > > How many have been renegotiated so far? > > > > > > What happens in the meanwhile? > > > > Show trials of civil servants, by the sound of it. > > It does now rather feel that the only reason to do Brexit is to save the Tory party. And that in order to save themselves they are quite prepared to inflict any amount of damage on the country and, indeed, on the EU. And then, bless, renegotiate all these agreements they’ve just torn up and get an FTA as well.
Don't forget the Brexit Party obliterated the Labour Party in Labour Leave seats last night too
> I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
Depressing, isn't it?
Yes.
I am starting work on a new project tomorrow so I will not be around much anymore - for a while anyway. You’re probably all sick of me by now anyway. It’s just as well. The level of delusion and destructiveness and sheer ignorance and dishonesty being exhibited by the Tories and Farage’s mob and Labour is infuriating.
They are doing what all simple-minded populists do. They take a genuine problem - the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, blow it up into a huge problem as if it’s the only issue that matters then come up with a ludicrously simplistic answer to that problem, which simply will not work and will create even more problems. And when anyone takes them to task or asks any questions or raises any sort of issue they shout about treachery and betrayal.
I’ve had enough of it. I will go and bang my head on another brick wall for a bit. At least I will be getting paid handsomely for it.
Night all.
Best of luck with the other wall.
We are available at all times for an alternative head banging.
> @HYUFD said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @isam said: > > > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”? > > > > Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government) > > > > Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose... > Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century >
Right place, right time. Blair and Attlee too. It is difficult to argue that taking over the country and the Tory Party at this moment is the right time and place for anyone.
Thatcher would not have been very good in a Hung Parliament . She was far too divisive and few non-Tories would have supported her. Just imagine the problems she would have encountered with the 'Wets' on her own side without a secure majority to impose her will.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade. > > > > > > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they? > > > > Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU. > > > > However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this > > Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements? > > How many have been renegotiated so far? > > What happens in the meanwhile? > > I don’t mean to be rude but if your answer is reflective of what Tory No Deal candidates think, then they don’t have a fucking clue.
We have had THREE years since the Brexit vote to prepare for renegotiating those agreements and indeed Liam Fox's Department has been going around the world preparing to renegotiate those agreements, despite the defeatism of diehard Remainers those who actually respect the Leave vote will commit to get it done
> @justin124 said: > Thatcher would not have been very good in a Hung Parliament . She was far too divisive and few non-Tories would have supported her. Just imagine the problems she would have encountered with the 'Wets' on her own side without a secure majority to impose her will.
She would never have been in a hung Parliament in the first place as lest we forget The Blessed Margaret knew how to win elections with majorities.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @justin124 said: > > Thatcher would not have been very good in a Hung Parliament . She was far too divisive and few non-Tories would have supported her. Just imagine the problems she would have encountered with the 'Wets' on her own side without a secure majority to impose her will. > > She would never have been in a hung Parliament as lest we forget The Blessed Margaret knew how to win elections with majorities.
A Hung Parliament might well have occurred had an election taken place in Autumn 1978. My point is ,however, that she would not have been effective if faced with the present parliamentary arithmetic.
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”? > > > > > > Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government) > > > > > > Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose... > > Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century > > > > Right place, right time. Blair and Attlee too. It is difficult to argue that taking over the country and the Tory Party at this moment is the right time and place for anyone.
Boris has the capability if he rises to the occasion of Brexit to be one of our greatest PMs but that is of course a big if.
Attlee too had to face much of his party preferring Herbert Morrison and Blair was always treated by the left of his party with suspicion. Those most favoured by the party establishment rarely make the best PMs
> @GIN1138 said: > > @justin124 said: > > Thatcher would not have been very good in a Hung Parliament . She was far too divisive and few non-Tories would have supported her. Just imagine the problems she would have encountered with the 'Wets' on her own side without a secure majority to impose her will. > > She would never have been in a hung Parliament in the first place as lest we forget The Blessed Margaret knew how to win elections with majorities.
She was lucky her opposition was divided by the Alliance in 1983 and 1987. Mrs May won a similar vote share in 2017 to her - but unluckily for her that didn't happen as the LD vote had collapsed. 43% can deliver a 140 seat majority - or no majority at all under our wonderful system!
> @viewcode said: > Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU. > > When do you envisage this renegotiation starting? > When do you envisage this renegotiation ending?
It has already been started and preparations made through the Brexit Departments and it will end once it has finished
> @GIN1138 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership? > > All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?)
Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
The surreal thing about this is that a referendum is the only known way to get the Conservative Party out of the treacle, and quite possibly total destruction. But nobody's allowed to say it.
I wonder if the leadership candidates are thinking it.
> @AndyJS said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership? > > > > All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?) > > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
The 1922 have said they want two votes per week I think so maybe nominations close Mon 10th and first vote will be Tue 11th followed by Thu 13th etc.
The surreal thing about this is that a referendum is the only known way to get the Conservative Party out of the treacle, and quite possibly total destruction. But nobody's allowed to say it.
I wonder if the leadership candidates are thinking it.
The trick is to engineer HoC forcing you to have a 2nd vote, rather than proposing one.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership? > > > > > > All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?) > > > > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays. > > The 1922 have said they want two votes per week I think so maybe nominations close Mon 10th and first vote will be Tue 11th followed by Thu 13th etc.
Yes, that's likely. So 14 days to go before the first vote. It'll be interesting to see how many candidates drop out before the second one.
It has already been started and preparations made through the Brexit Departments and it will end once it has finished
A renegotiation requires two parties. Given that the EU isn't negotiating, the first part of your response ("It has already been started") is difficult to reconcile.
The second part of your response ("it will end once it has finished") is a tautology.
> @edmundintokyo said: > The surreal thing about this is that a referendum is the only known way to get the Conservative Party out of the treacle, and quite possibly total destruction. But nobody's allowed to say it. > > I wonder if the leadership candidates are thinking it.
Given the losing side never really accepted the result of the last referendum why would the losing side accept this one?
A second referendum might work for Labour - if the Tories concede it they may well get 9% at the next election as their voters will desert them for the BXP. Just keep voting plebs until you vote the right way probably isn't a good sell.
Still it will be fun watching parliament try and agree what options should be on the ballot paper - no doubt several Brexit options and only one remain one if most MPs have their way.
> @AndyJS said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership? > > > > > > > > All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?) > > > > > > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays. > > > > The 1922 have said they want two votes per week I think so maybe nominations close Mon 10th and first vote will be Tue 11th followed by Thu 13th etc. > > Yes, that's likely. So 14 days to go before the first vote. It'll be interesting to see how many candidates drop out before the second one.
I suspect there will be a LOT of pressure for at least half of these people who are basically just pissing around and wasting time to drop out after Round One.
> @HYUFD said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @isam said: > > > > > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”? > > > > > > > > Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government) > > > > > > > > Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose... > > > Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century > > > > > > > Right place, right time. Blair and Attlee too. It is difficult to argue that taking over the country and the Tory Party at this moment is the right time and place for anyone. > > Boris has the capability if he rises to the occasion of Brexit to be one of our greatest PMs but that is of course a big if. > > > Attlee too had to face much of his party preferring Herbert Morrison and Blair was always treated by the left of his party with suspicion. Those most favoured by the party establishment rarely make the best PMs
Agree. My comment was more about how a situation sometimes falls perfectly for a certain person. Attlee's combination of rather dour bank manager implementing a radical Socialist agenda would never have flown at any time other than after a depression followed by the devastation of war. And only worked in competition with such an eccentric, flamboyant character as Churchill. People wanted change combined with a total lack of unnecessary drama.
> @AndyJS said: > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
Wikipedia states that nominations will close during the week commencing June 10th. In 2016 nominations were open for 18 hours, closing on the Thursday at noon, with the first ballot on the Tuesday following.
If the same schedule was followed then the first ballot would be on Tuesday June 18th, but it could well be earlier than that.
> @viewcode said: > It has already been started and preparations made through the Brexit Departments and it will end once it has finished > > A renegotiation requires two parties. Given that the EU isn't negotiating, the first part of your response ("It has already been started") is difficult to reconcile. > > The second part of your response ("it will end once it has finished") is a tautology.
The UK is the EU's largest export destination, the idea it can just ignore the UK market even in a No Deal scenario is absurd.
In any case if we have not left the EU by the end of the year the Brexit Party will win the next general election by a landslide under FPTP just as it would have won over 400 seats if last night's results were repeated at a general election so what the current government has done would be irrelevant as PM Farage would be calling the shots
> @brendan16 said: > Given the losing side never really accepted the result of the last referendum why would the losing side accept this one?
They would, but you don't need to believe that, because it wouldn't be up to them. You do it the same way the AV referendum worked, with the referendum legislation legislating what happens in each case, so there's no need for any further parliamentary votes to make it happen. This works when, as now parliament is split into several mutually distrusting factions: The same thing that makes it hard to pass things makes it hard to reverse them.
> @viewcode said: > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays. > > I meant to ask you: what were the odds you got on the Australian Liberal Coalition?
10/1 a few hours before the polls closed, but apparently it was 18/1 when the exit poll came out.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership? > > Wikipedia states that nominations will close during the week commencing June 10th. In 2016 nominations were open for 18 hours, closing on the Thursday at noon, with the first ballot on the Tuesday following. > > If the same schedule was followed then the first ballot would be on Tuesday June 18th, but it could well be earlier than that.
Right, I thought nominations were actually closing on 10th June itself.
> > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
>
> Wikipedia states that nominations will close during the week commencing June 10th. In 2016 nominations were open for 18 hours, closing on the Thursday at noon, with the first ballot on the Tuesday following.
>
> If the same schedule was followed then the first ballot would be on Tuesday June 18th, but it could well be earlier than that.
Right, I thought nominations were actually closing on 10th June itself.
I suggest they close then asap. We already have enough now.
> @AndyJS said: > The Greens got more votes than the Tories and Labour if you exclude London.
There has been a noticeable lack of comment here about that. I know an EU election is a free hit, but that was a great performance that seems to have gone under the radar.
> @dixiedean said: > > @AndyJS said: > > The Greens got more votes than the Tories and Labour if you exclude London. > > There has been a noticeable lack of comment here about that. I know an EU election is a free hit, but that was a great performance that seems to have gone under the radar.
It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks? Not confident the leadership can do that.
> @dixiedean said: > > It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks? > Not confident the leadership can do that. -------
The scariest result for the main parties would probably be Brexit Party first, Lib Dems second. If that could happen in a Labour/Tory marginal, the two main parties could be facing wipeout nationally.
> @williamglenn said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > > It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks? > > Not confident the leadership can do that. > ------- > > The scariest result for the main parties would probably be Brexit Party first, Lib Dems second. If that could happen in a Labour/Tory marginal, the two main parties could be facing wipeout nationally.
True. Although the LDs would be coming off 3.3% at the GE. And 3rd at the Euros. It is probably one of the worst constituencies they could imagine to be fighting right now. Which would make it all the more effective were it to happen.
> @williamglenn said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > > It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks? > > Not confident the leadership can do that. > ------- > > The scariest result for the main parties would probably be Brexit Party first, Lib Dems second. If that could happen in a Labour/Tory marginal, the two main parties could be facing wipeout nationally.
And alternatively for the Tories - who held the seat as recent as 2015 - if you don't vote for Nigel's guy Corbyn will win?> @dixiedean said: > > @AndyJS said: > > The Greens got more votes than the Tories and Labour if you exclude London. > > There has been a noticeable lack of comment here about that. I know an EU election is a free hit, but that was a great performance that seems to have gone under the radar.
Sounds like a great idea for the second referendum from Green party supporters - lets just exclude all votes from London!
Perhaps is also indicative that the Green party appears to have difficulty attracting BAME voters hence it didn't do relatively as well in London - as its very much a white middle class party?
> @viewcode said: > > @viewcode said: > > > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays. > > > > > > I meant to ask you: what were the odds you got on the Australian Liberal Coalition? > > > > 10/1 a few hours before the polls closed, but apparently it was 18/1 when the exit poll came out. > > Lord god above. Is there a source for the 18/1? I'd like to use it in a writeup.
I can't find the 18/1. It was in a comment I saw somewhere so may not have been accurate. But this is evidence of the 10/1 odds.
Given the facebook ad spend outline earlier who is funding changeUK - and why aren't they asking for their money back?
Boris has put his Islington home on the market for a cool £3.8 million - and gets £250k a year for writing one column a week - and he has lots of wealthy friends. Not hard to work out he has plenty of cash behind him.
The Tories probably won't want the leadership voting among MPs to go on for more than 2 weeks, which would mean a maximum of 4 ballots. With so many candidates that'll mean a lot of pressure could be put on low-scoring candidates to pull out after the first round or second round to avoid a large number of rounds being necessary.
Comments
> I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this
> Where is Mordaunt?
The other side of the Black Gate.
Discuss...
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Given Hunt as far as we know would sell his grandmother to get the keys to No 10, we must assume his aberrant moment of common sense is calculated somehow to bring him perceived advantage. My guess is that he wants the consequences of No Deal to be discussed so Johnson doesn't airily go on about buccaneering no deals sit being challenged. Or possibly Hunt reckons MPs are (rightly) terrified of the thought of No Deal and they will put him forward to the blue rinsed mob because he will do less damage.
> >
> > And you don't think the other candidates spend all day thinking this kind of minute tactical detail out? <
>
> ++++
>
> Well apparently Boris doesn't, otherwise he wouldn't have made that crazy, purposeless commitment to "leaving by Halloween", thus entirely boxing himself in - just as T May did.
>
> He didn't have to do it. He could have said "we are leaving, no ifs and no buts", and left it at that. Instead he committed himself to a stance which is, many think, totally undeliverable just because of the parliamentary calendar, need for time to legislate etc etc
>
> He thus painted a massive Farage-sized target on his back, for no reason whatsoever.
>
> Until Boris did that, I thought he was potentially worth the risk. No longer.
If a Tory PM extends again in October the Tories face Canadian Conservatives 1993 style obliteration at the hands of Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election after which you would be literally lucky to count the number of Tory MPs on 1 hand.
As last night's results where the Tories won ZERO local authorities in the entire UK confirms Boris was simple stating the obvious
They will sort the thing tomorrow
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1133141981188829184
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @ReggieCide said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> > > >
> > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> > > >
> > >
> > > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
> >
> > And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party.
>
> How do you feel the difference between MPs "playing silly buggers" and MPs collectively deciding that other candidates are preferable in sufficient numbers to leave Johnson third or lower?
Won't that depend largely on who does make it to the final two? If MPs put up McVey and Gove, I suspect activists will then say fair enough, if they go for Hunt vs Stewart I'd expect there to be mass decampment.
How many have been renegotiated so far?
What happens in the meanwhile?
I don’t mean to be rude but if your answer is reflective of what Tory No Deal candidates think, then they don’t have a fucking clue.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Plus of course if we get to October and PM Hunt requests a further extension of Art 50 if a Deal has not been completed by then it is hard not to see how the Tories will not be obliterated by Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election if last night is anything to go by
>
> For the sake of argument, say they had a further extension from October this year but somehow got Brexit done a year later, why would the defining issue in the 2022 GE be whether the Tories got Brexit done in October 2019 or October 2020???
They would not get Brexit done a year later as there would still be no Commons majority for the WA and the EU would extend for longer and longer periods, no the Tories would be annihilated by Farage
Credit to him for giving it a go, though.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> >
> > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> >
>
> If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
I suspect Boris or Raab would win the membership vote easily if they get to it, as would McVey.
I also suspect Gove would beat Hunt if MPs conspired to keep Boris or Raab off the ballot but there might be a lot of spoilt ballot papers
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Plus of course if we get to October and PM Hunt requests a further extension of Art 50 if a Deal has not been completed by then it is hard not to see how the Tories will not be obliterated by Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election if last night is anything to go by
>
> Last night probably isn't a lot to go by chime a general election.
> I guarantee you the Lib Dems, Greens and Brexit Nigel Party won't hold on to their vote share.
> Nor will ChUK now I think of it.
I think it is likely the Brexit Party will be ahead in a Westminster poll within the next fortnight and I also think the LDs will be back to close to 20% too
> > @ReggieCide said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> > >
> > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> > >
> >
> > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
>
> And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party.
I'd have thought the logical switch path for those that wish to leave without a deal would be as follows :.
Baker -> McVey -> Raab, then possibly Gove if Raab is knocked out
The softer Brexit path would be
Stewart -> Hunt or Javid
Which lane is Boris in ?
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > Where is Mordaunt?
>
> The other side of the Black Gate.
>
> Doesn't stop her running though.
There should be a word for undeclared candidates who are in the race but not yet in the running. In the tripping, hoping that rivals fall over?
https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1132760478218956800
> > @HYUFD said:
> > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> >
> > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> >
>
> He is rapidly appearing to have the consistency of Boris, but absent any kind of charisma.
Hunt is Theresa May without the decisiveness and electability
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> >
>
> > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
>
>
>
> Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
>
>
>
> However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this
>
> Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements?
>
> How many have been renegotiated so far?
>
> What happens in the meanwhile?
Show trials of civil servants, by the sound of it.
> I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
Depressing, isn't it?
> What a thread. BP stopped FB spending in last few days. Why?
>
> https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1132760478218956800
Where's their money coming from that's what I'd like to know...
On the hand look how much less Brexit Party spent yet everyone acknowledges their digital campaign has been brilliant.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @ReggieCide said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> > > >
> > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> > > >
> > >
> > > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
> >
> > And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party.
>
> I'd have thought the logical switch path for those that wish to leave without a deal would be as follows :.
>
> Baker -> McVey -> Raab, then possibly Gove if Raab is knocked out
>
> The softer Brexit path would be
>
> Stewart -> Hunt or Javid
>
> Which lane is Boris in ?
Boris is in the Boris lane. He transcends all others... But that doesn't necessarily mean he'll get to the last two in Commons phase of the leadership election.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> > >
> > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> > >
> >
> > He is rapidly appearing to have the consistency of Boris, but absent any kind of charisma.
>
> Hunt is Theresa May without the decisiveness and electability
You... You think May is decisive?
Decade+.
I'd guess Labour would win an election on a promise to rejoin before that though - it's basically an open goal if we have any form of painful Brexit.
You'd have thought the ERG types would have figured this out by now.
- Margaret Thatcher
> How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”?
Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government)
Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose...
When do you envisage this renegotiation ending?
More than half (53%) of 2017 Conservative voters who took part in the European elections voted for the Brexit Party. Only just over one in five (21%) stayed with the Tories. Around one in eight (12%) switched to the Liberal Democrats. Labour voters from 2017 were more likely to stay with their party, but only a minority (38%) did so. More than one in five (22%) went to the Lib Dems, 17% switched to the Greens, and 13% went to the Brexit Party.
For all the success of the Lib Dems in these elections, only 69% of their 2017 voters stuck with them: 13% switched to the Green Party and 7% backed the Brexit Party. Nearly seven in ten 2017 UKIP voters (68%) switched to the Brexit Party, with just under a quarter (24%) staying put.......
....Only one in three (32%) of 2017 Tories who switched to the Brexit Party said they would come home at the next general election; 52% currently say they will stay with the Brexit Party. Conservatives who switched to the Lib Dems say they are even more likely to stay put: 61% now say they will vote Lib Dem again at the general election, with only 22% saying they expect to return to the Tories. Overall, only 43% of 2017 Conservative voters who turned out in the European elections say they will vote Tory at the next general election.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/my-euro-election-post-vote-poll-most-tory-switchers-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party/
> > @isam said:
> > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”?
>
> Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government)
>
> Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose...
Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century
I am starting work on a new project tomorrow so I will not be around much anymore - for a while anyway. You’re probably all sick of me by now anyway. It’s just as well. The level of delusion and destructiveness and sheer ignorance and dishonesty being exhibited by the Tories and Farage’s mob and Labour is infuriating.
They are doing what all simple-minded populists do. They take a genuine problem - the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, blow it up into a huge problem as if it’s the only issue that matters then come up with a ludicrously simplistic answer to that problem, which simply will not work and will create even more problems. And when anyone takes them to task or asks any questions or raises any sort of issue they shout about treachery and betrayal.
I’ve had enough of it. I will go and bang my head on another brick wall for a bit. At least I will be getting paid handsomely for it.
Night all.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> > > >
> > > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> > > >
> > >
> > > He is rapidly appearing to have the consistency of Boris, but absent any kind of charisma.
> >
> > Hunt is Theresa May without the decisiveness and electability
>
> You... You think May is decisive?
Compared to Hunt certainly
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> >
>
> > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
>
>
>
> Depressing, isn't it?
>
> Yes.
>
> I am starting work on a new project tomorrow so I will not be around much anymore - for a while anyway. You’re probably all sick of me by now anyway. It’s just as well. The level of delusion and destructiveness and sheer ignorance and dishonesty being exhibited by the Tories and Farage’s mob and Labour is infuriating.
>
> They are doing what all simple-minded populists do. They take a genuine problem - the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, blow it up into a huge problem as if it’s the only issue that matters then come up with a ludicrously simplistic answer to that problem, which simply will not work and will create even more problems. And when anyone takes them to task or asks any questions or raises any sort of issue they shout about treachery and betrayal.
>
> I’ve had enough of it. I will go and bang my head on another brick wall for a bit. At least I will be getting paid handsomely for it.
>
> Night all.
Already looking forward to your return with more thread headers and comments below the line.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this
>
> >
>
> > Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements?
>
> >
>
> > How many have been renegotiated so far?
>
> >
>
> > What happens in the meanwhile?
>
>
>
> Show trials of civil servants, by the sound of it.
>
> It does now rather feel that the only reason to do Brexit is to save the Tory party. And that in order to save themselves they are quite prepared to inflict any amount of damage on the country and, indeed, on the EU. And then, bless, renegotiate all these agreements they’ve just torn up and get an FTA as well.
Don't forget the Brexit Party obliterated the Labour Party in Labour Leave seats last night too
We are available at all times for an alternative head banging.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”?
> >
> > Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government)
> >
> > Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose...
> Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century
>
Right place, right time. Blair and Attlee too. It is difficult to argue that taking over the country and the Tory Party at this moment is the right time and place for anyone.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > I do wish all these Tories desperate for a No Deal exit would actually explain to us in some detail what will happen when overnight we become a third country as far as the EU is concerned and fall out of all the agreements we have been part of for the last 46 years (about 700 of them) not all of which will relate to trade.
>
> >
>
> > What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?
>
>
>
> Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
>
>
>
> However the civil service have had 3 years to prepare for all this
>
> Do you have any idea how long it takes to renegotiate 700 agreements?
>
> How many have been renegotiated so far?
>
> What happens in the meanwhile?
>
> I don’t mean to be rude but if your answer is reflective of what Tory No Deal candidates think, then they don’t have a fucking clue.
We have had THREE years since the Brexit vote to prepare for renegotiating those agreements and indeed Liam Fox's Department has been going around the world preparing to renegotiate those agreements, despite the defeatism of diehard Remainers those who actually respect the Leave vote will commit to get it done
Although a much less capable politician, May has faced similar sniping and anonymous briefing.
> Thatcher would not have been very good in a Hung Parliament . She was far too divisive and few non-Tories would have supported her. Just imagine the problems she would have encountered with the 'Wets' on her own side without a secure majority to impose her will.
She would never have been in a hung Parliament in the first place as lest we forget The Blessed Margaret knew how to win elections with majorities.
> > @justin124 said:
> > Thatcher would not have been very good in a Hung Parliament . She was far too divisive and few non-Tories would have supported her. Just imagine the problems she would have encountered with the 'Wets' on her own side without a secure majority to impose her will.
>
> She would never have been in a hung Parliament as lest we forget The Blessed Margaret knew how to win elections with majorities.
A Hung Parliament might well have occurred had an election taken place in Autumn 1978. My point is ,however, that she would not have been effective if faced with the present parliamentary arithmetic.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”?
> > >
> > > Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government)
> > >
> > > Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose...
> > Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century
> >
>
> Right place, right time. Blair and Attlee too. It is difficult to argue that taking over the country and the Tory Party at this moment is the right time and place for anyone.
Boris has the capability if he rises to the occasion of Brexit to be one of our greatest PMs but that is of course a big if.
Attlee too had to face much of his party preferring Herbert Morrison and Blair was always treated by the left of his party with suspicion. Those most favoured by the party establishment rarely make the best PMs
> Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?)
> > @justin124 said:
> > Thatcher would not have been very good in a Hung Parliament . She was far too divisive and few non-Tories would have supported her. Just imagine the problems she would have encountered with the 'Wets' on her own side without a secure majority to impose her will.
>
> She would never have been in a hung Parliament in the first place as lest we forget The Blessed Margaret knew how to win elections with majorities.
She was lucky her opposition was divided by the Alliance in 1983 and 1987. Mrs May won a similar vote share in 2017 to her - but unluckily for her that didn't happen as the LD vote had collapsed. 43% can deliver a 140 seat majority - or no majority at all under our wonderful system!
> Well you renegotiate them and still aim for a FTA with the EU.
>
> When do you envisage this renegotiation starting?
> When do you envisage this renegotiation ending?
It has already been started and preparations made through the Brexit Departments and it will end once it has finished
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1133088865621876739
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
>
> All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?)
Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
I wonder if the leadership candidates are thinking it.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
> >
> > All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?)
>
> Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
The 1922 have said they want two votes per week I think so maybe nominations close Mon 10th and first vote will be Tue 11th followed by Thu 13th etc.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
> > >
> > > All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?)
> >
> > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
>
> The 1922 have said they want two votes per week I think so maybe nominations close Mon 10th and first vote will be Tue 11th followed by Thu 13th etc.
Yes, that's likely. So 14 days to go before the first vote. It'll be interesting to see how many candidates drop out before the second one.
> https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/1132917233771003904?s=20
Yeah but if you add together Lab, Lib and Green the Brexit Party didn't really win.
> The trick is to engineer HoC forcing you to have a 2nd vote, rather than proposing one.
That would be ideal, but it doesn't seem to have the votes unless you whip for it...
The second part of your response ("it will end once it has finished") is a tautology.
> The surreal thing about this is that a referendum is the only known way to get the Conservative Party out of the treacle, and quite possibly total destruction. But nobody's allowed to say it.
>
> I wonder if the leadership candidates are thinking it.
Given the losing side never really accepted the result of the last referendum why would the losing side accept this one?
A second referendum might work for Labour - if the Tories concede it they may well get 9% at the next election as their voters will desert them for the BXP. Just keep voting plebs until you vote the right way probably isn't a good sell.
Still it will be fun watching parliament try and agree what options should be on the ballot paper - no doubt several Brexit options and only one remain one if most MPs have their way.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
> > > >
> > > > All we know so far is nominations close week commencing 10th June so I assume the first vote will be sometime in that week (maybe 12th or 13th June?)
> > >
> > > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
> >
> > The 1922 have said they want two votes per week I think so maybe nominations close Mon 10th and first vote will be Tue 11th followed by Thu 13th etc.
>
> Yes, that's likely. So 14 days to go before the first vote. It'll be interesting to see how many candidates drop out before the second one.
I suspect there will be a LOT of pressure for at least half of these people who are basically just pissing around and wasting time to drop out after Round One.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @isam said:
> > > > > How can any Tory watch this Thatcher doc and think “What we need is a safe pair of hands who is willing to compromise”?
> > > >
> > > > Thatcher was an anomaly though (she happened by accident in 75 and because of the Winter Of Discontent they got stuck with her in government)
> > > >
> > > > Generally the Tories are a bunch of big girls blouses and the dour old boys club soon got rid of her when she'd served her purpose...
> > > Neither Churchill nor Thatcher were 'safe pairs of hands' and much of the Tory Old Guard hated them but they won the leadership because of the necessity of the time and they were arguably the 2 greatest PMs of the last century
> > >
> >
> > Right place, right time. Blair and Attlee too. It is difficult to argue that taking over the country and the Tory Party at this moment is the right time and place for anyone.
>
> Boris has the capability if he rises to the occasion of Brexit to be one of our greatest PMs but that is of course a big if.
>
>
> Attlee too had to face much of his party preferring Herbert Morrison and Blair was always treated by the left of his party with suspicion. Those most favoured by the party establishment rarely make the best PMs
Agree. My comment was more about how a situation sometimes falls perfectly for a certain person. Attlee's combination of rather dour bank manager implementing a radical Socialist agenda would never have flown at any time other than after a depression followed by the devastation of war. And only worked in competition with such an eccentric, flamboyant character as Churchill. People wanted change combined with a total lack of unnecessary drama.
> Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
Wikipedia states that nominations will close during the week commencing June 10th. In 2016 nominations were open for 18 hours, closing on the Thursday at noon, with the first ballot on the Tuesday following.
If the same schedule was followed then the first ballot would be on Tuesday June 18th, but it could well be earlier than that.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1132989182887026688
> It has already been started and preparations made through the Brexit Departments and it will end once it has finished
>
> A renegotiation requires two parties. Given that the EU isn't negotiating, the first part of your response ("It has already been started") is difficult to reconcile.
>
> The second part of your response ("it will end once it has finished") is a tautology.
The UK is the EU's largest export destination, the idea it can just ignore the UK market even in a No Deal scenario is absurd.
In any case if we have not left the EU by the end of the year the Brexit Party will win the next general election by a landslide under FPTP just as it would have won over 400 seats if last night's results were repeated at a general election so what the current government has done would be irrelevant as PM Farage would be calling the shots
> Given the losing side never really accepted the result of the last referendum why would the losing side accept this one?
They would, but you don't need to believe that, because it wouldn't be up to them. You do it the same way the AV referendum worked, with the referendum legislation legislating what happens in each case, so there's no need for any further parliamentary votes to make it happen. This works when, as now parliament is split into several mutually distrusting factions: The same thing that makes it hard to pass things makes it hard to reverse them.
> Meanwhile, the Tory leadership race rumbles on:
>
> https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1132989182887026688
Someone was saying down thread that Rory The Tory looks ill? :
Grab-A-Cocky (formally of this parish) had a bit of a crush on Dominic Raab I think...
> Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
>
> I meant to ask you: what were the odds you got on the Australian Liberal Coalition?
10/1 a few hours before the polls closed, but apparently it was 18/1 when the exit poll came out.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Do we know yet on what date the first round of voting will take place for the Tory leadership?
>
> Wikipedia states that nominations will close during the week commencing June 10th. In 2016 nominations were open for 18 hours, closing on the Thursday at noon, with the first ballot on the Tuesday following.
>
> If the same schedule was followed then the first ballot would be on Tuesday June 18th, but it could well be earlier than that.
Right, I thought nominations were actually closing on 10th June itself.
May your dreams be Brexit War free.
Raab* 19
Gove* 19
Johnson* 17
Hunt* 13
Javid* 7
Hancock* 7
McVey* 5
Harper 4
Leadsom* 2
Baker 1
Cleverly 1
Stewart* 1
Malthouse* 0
* = officially declared
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/edit?ts=5ce7aed7#gid=0
> Latest numbers:
>
> Raab 19
> Gove 19
> Johnson 17
> Hunt 13
> Javid 7
> Hancock 7
> McVey 5
> Harper 4
> Leadsom 2
> Baker 1
> Cleverly 1
> Stewart 1
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/edit?ts=5ce7aed7#gid=0
Hunt firm support already collapsing it seems
> https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/1132917233771003904
>
> It's an ill wind...
The Peterborough constituency has different boundaries and excludes much of the local authority area.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Latest numbers:
> >
> > Raab 19
> > Gove 19
> > Johnson 17
> > Hunt 13
> > Javid 7
> > Hancock 7
> > McVey 5
> > Harper 4
> > Leadsom 2
> > Baker 1
> > Cleverly 1
> > Stewart 1
> >
> > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/edit?ts=5ce7aed7#gid=0
>
> Hunt firm support already collapsing it seems
The figures for Johnson and Gove are also lower there than in earlier accounts.
> The Greens got more votes than the Tories and Labour if you exclude London.
There has been a noticeable lack of comment here about that. I know an EU election is a free hit, but that was a great performance that seems to have gone under the radar.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Latest numbers:
> > >
> > > Raab 19
> > > Gove 19
> > > Johnson 17
> > > Hunt 13
> > > Javid 7
> > > Hancock 7
> > > McVey 5
> > > Harper 4
> > > Leadsom 2
> > > Baker 1
> > > Cleverly 1
> > > Stewart 1
> > >
> > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/edit?ts=5ce7aed7#gid=0
> >
> > Hunt firm support already collapsing it seems
>
> The figures for Johnson and Gove are also lower there than in earlier accounts.
Those are Guido's figures.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > The Greens got more votes than the Tories and Labour if you exclude London.
>
> There has been a noticeable lack of comment here about that. I know an EU election is a free hit, but that was a great performance that seems to have gone under the radar.
I only just noticed it.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/1132917233771003904
> >
> > It's an ill wind...
>
> The Peterborough constituency has different boundaries and excludes much of the local authority area.
It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks?
Not confident the leadership can do that.
> Meanwhile, the Tory leadership race rumbles on:
>
> https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1132989182887026688
Remember when some people thought ed miliband was a hottie.
> https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1133142055385993216?s=20
Surely Zac Goldsmith should understand by now what the point of Lib Dem leaflets is!
>
> It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks?
> Not confident the leadership can do that.
-------
The scariest result for the main parties would probably be Brexit Party first, Lib Dems second. If that could happen in a Labour/Tory marginal, the two main parties could be facing wipeout nationally.
> > @dixiedean said:
> >
> > It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks?
> > Not confident the leadership can do that.
> -------
>
> The scariest result for the main parties would probably be Brexit Party first, Lib Dems second. If that could happen in a Labour/Tory marginal, the two main parties could be facing wipeout nationally.
True. Although the LDs would be coming off 3.3% at the GE. And 3rd at the Euros. It is probably one of the worst constituencies they could imagine to be fighting right now.
Which would make it all the more effective were it to happen.
> > @dixiedean said:
> >
> > It does. However, BP must be favourites. Time to produce an "Only Labour can defeat Farage here" barchart, methinks?
> > Not confident the leadership can do that.
> -------
>
> The scariest result for the main parties would probably be Brexit Party first, Lib Dems second. If that could happen in a Labour/Tory marginal, the two main parties could be facing wipeout nationally.
And alternatively for the Tories - who held the seat as recent as 2015 - if you don't vote for Nigel's guy Corbyn will win?> @dixiedean said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > The Greens got more votes than the Tories and Labour if you exclude London.
>
> There has been a noticeable lack of comment here about that. I know an EU election is a free hit, but that was a great performance that seems to have gone under the radar.
Sounds like a great idea for the second referendum from Green party supporters - lets just exclude all votes from London!
Perhaps is also indicative that the Green party appears to have difficulty attracting BAME voters hence it didn't do relatively as well in London - as its very much a white middle class party?
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > Thanks. It'll probably be 13th June because traditionally the votes take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
>
> >
>
> > I meant to ask you: what were the odds you got on the Australian Liberal Coalition?
>
>
>
> 10/1 a few hours before the polls closed, but apparently it was 18/1 when the exit poll came out.
>
> Lord god above. Is there a source for the 18/1? I'd like to use it in a writeup.
I can't find the 18/1. It was in a comment I saw somewhere so may not have been accurate. But this is evidence of the 10/1 odds.
https://twitter.com/Betfair_Aus/status/1130254307083919360
https://twitter.com/Betfair_Aus/status/1129658467281657857
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133158165799931904?s=21
Given the facebook ad spend outline earlier who is funding changeUK - and why aren't they asking for their money back?
Boris has put his Islington home on the market for a cool £3.8 million - and gets £250k a year for writing one column a week - and he has lots of wealthy friends. Not hard to work out he has plenty of cash behind him.