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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It takes some chutzpah to argue that CON & LAB local losses were down to Brexit but that GRN and LD gains weren‘t
I’ve just come across an article by Mike Hume on Spiked online that argues that Brexit was the main reason why the Tories and LAB did badly in the local elections last Thursday. But the same article goes on to argue by implication that this effect did not help the Lib Dems and the Greens, both strong pro-remain parties, to achieve all their gains.
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PS: Storrrrrrp Brexit!
> However quick I am - and I can be VERY quick - there is always somebody who is that little bit quicker. Story of my life.
Well there are situations where that can be a good thing.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > However quick I am - and I can be VERY quick - there is always somebody who is that little bit quicker. Story of my life.
>
> Well there are situations where that can be a good thing.
You need a good lawyer
> Was turnout low compared to usual? I've a feeling that leavers will rear their heads at the EU elections and viewed locals as less significant.
I'll tell you on May 26th at about 10 p.m.
Overall I believe the Euros will give a good guide to the strength of pro-Remain voting patterns. The Lds and CHUK both need to score well. Not sure that they will however.
Tories, disgruntled at the failure to deliver Brexit, did not vote in unusually large numbers. Remainers who wanted to make a point probably had an equally unusual participation rate and supported those whom they perceived as anti-Brexit. Labour supporters were probably disillusioned if they wanted Brexit, disappointed in their party's position if they didn't or just totally confused.
Many of these trends are likely to be repeated in the Euros. The Tories face an absolute pasting with the majority of their supporters who turn out likely to make a point by voting for the Brexit Party. The Lib Dems now have a better chance of becoming the remainer party but have to compete with the CUKs (assuming they ever get their act together) and the Greens. Labour supporters will have yet more confusion to deal with.
Remainers need to get behind the Lib Dems who have the best chance to push Labour into third place . Labour need to be trounced and Remainers within the party need to send a clear message to Corbyn and his cronies .
In the local elections though it should do so be pointed out Independents made more gains than the Greens and a lot of Leavers voted for them
> @isam said:
>
> No, Richard Nabavi said it [Labour to win Euros] was a 1/2 shot!
Oops, sorry about that! Farage has managed to establish the brand extremely quickly, so the confusion with UKIP (which was behind my thinking) isn't going to happen. If it's any consolation, my lump-on was all of £50.
It's really not going to reduce the disgruntlement quotient inside the Tory Party.
> Change UK really have been a complete shambles . And their logo is abysmal . Who in their right mind would think a black and white logo would work . And to add to the ineptness they’ve now sent out an email with the wrong date of the EU elections .
>
>
>
> Remainers need to get behind the Lib Dems who have the best chance to push Labour into third place . Labour need to be trounced and Remainers within the party need to send a clear message to Corbyn and his cronies .
>
> They seem to have changed their twitter handle from @TheIndGroup to @ForChange_Now. I wonder why, it was surely better before?
That mixing of camel and snake notation should make any good coder's head explode.
> On topic Mike is clearly right in pointing out the absurdity of arguing that Lib Dem and Green gains (Lord help us) are not connected with Brexit but I don't think that that proves a lot about the popularity of Brexit one way or the other. Instead, in elections where there was just over 30% turnout, what is clear is that there was differential turnout.
>
> Tories, disgruntled at the failure to deliver Brexit, did not vote in unusually large numbers. Remainers who wanted to make a point probably had an equally unusual participation rate and supported those whom they perceived as anti-Brexit. Labour supporters were probably disillusioned if they wanted Brexit, disappointed in their party's position if they didn't or just totally confused.
>
> Many of these trends are likely to be repeated in the Euros. The Tories face an absolute pasting with the majority of their supporters who turn out likely to make a point by voting for the Brexit Party. The Lib Dems now have a better chance of becoming the remainer party but have to compete with the CUKs (assuming they ever get their act together) and the Greens. Labour supporters will have yet more confusion to deal with.
The differential swing from Tories occurred mostly in Remain favouring areas, not Leave voting areas, and overall turnout was par for the course for stand alone Locals. It does look like Tory Remainers looking for a new home.
https://twitter.com/RichSwinford/status/1124610187229302784?s=19
I think the pro Remain turnout will be good for the Euros.
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> It is a bit strange though, if we take it that the locals results indicate an almighty swing behind REMAIN, that TBP are now 1.16 from 1.4ish for the Euros
With ukip near death they have no competition
I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
One point I've not heard anyone mention is that EU citizens can vote in EU elections. Anecdotally, quite a few sound as though they have registered to vote. I don't know how the pollsters allow for different electorates but it might be worth mentally adding a percent or so on the Remain side's vote share, especially in London.
> Change UK really have been a complete shambles . And their logo is abysmal . Who in their right mind would think a black and white logo would work . And to add to the ineptness they’ve now sent out an email with the wrong date of the EU elections .
>
>
>
> Remainers need to get behind the Lib Dems who have the best chance to push Labour into third place . Labour need to be trounced and Remainers within the party need to send a clear message to Corbyn and his cronies .
>
> They seem to have changed their twitter handle from @TheIndGroup to @ForChange_Now. I wonder why, it was surely better before?
They missed a trick because they only remain relevant if the UK stays in the EU . They should have just gone with a clear pro EU title . All this guff about changing politics . Unless the current voting system is changed then small parties have little chance . As a Remainer I like some of the MPs in Change but the Lib Dems deserve to be rewarded for their efforts on a PV and are better placed to hit Labour .
I’m normally a Labour supporter but they deserve to be punished for their two faced Brexit policy . Corbyn and co are in for a rude awakening soon. I’ve spoken with many Labour friends , some who used to be Corbyn fans have now had enough aswell as that the others won’t be voting Labour in the EU elections .
They’ll be lucky to scrape 20% at the EU elections .
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
>
> I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
>
> Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
I still think it odd ukip did so very badly where they did stand
The fudgy middle has the main two parties and the Remain/second referendum side is split altogether more. It'd be quite surprising if the Brexit Party didn't win.
> > @DavidL said:
> > On topic Mike is clearly right in pointing out the absurdity of arguing that Lib Dem and Green gains (Lord help us) are not connected with Brexit but I don't think that that proves a lot about the popularity of Brexit one way or the other. Instead, in elections where there was just over 30% turnout, what is clear is that there was differential turnout.
> >
> > Tories, disgruntled at the failure to deliver Brexit, did not vote in unusually large numbers. Remainers who wanted to make a point probably had an equally unusual participation rate and supported those whom they perceived as anti-Brexit. Labour supporters were probably disillusioned if they wanted Brexit, disappointed in their party's position if they didn't or just totally confused.
> >
> > Many of these trends are likely to be repeated in the Euros. The Tories face an absolute pasting with the majority of their supporters who turn out likely to make a point by voting for the Brexit Party. The Lib Dems now have a better chance of becoming the remainer party but have to compete with the CUKs (assuming they ever get their act together) and the Greens. Labour supporters will have yet more confusion to deal with.
>
> The differential swing from Tories occurred mostly in Remain favouring areas, not Leave voting areas, and overall turnout was par for the course for stand alone Locals. It does look like Tory Remainers looking for a new home.
>
> https://twitter.com/RichSwinford/status/1124610187229302784?s=19
>
> I think the pro Remain turnout will be good for the Euros.
>
>
Even in remain voting areas a lot of people voted leave but they didn't vote Tory in the locals. I don't think your analysis is incompatible with mine. I suspect you are right that remainers will be more motivated to vote in the Euros than leavers. I am still not inclined to participate myself.
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> It is a bit strange though, if we take it that the locals results indicate an almighty swing behind REMAIN, that TBP are now 1.16 from 1.4ish for the Euros
>
> As it happens, I think TBP are a bit too short (I still wonder how many voters in the polling booth are going to be confused by UKIP). But with the Remain vote likely to be split between three parties right the way to polling day, the single issue election is going to be fought between two sides one with a structural advantage.
>
> One point I've not heard anyone mention is that EU citizens can vote in EU elections. Anecdotally, quite a few sound as though they have registered to vote. I don't know how the pollsters allow for different electorates but it might be worth mentally adding a percent or so on the Remain side's vote share, especially in London.
It's a palaver though, having to complete a UC1 and get it in before the election. How many will even know the procedure?
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
>
> I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
>
> Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
>
>
>
> Turnout was not significantly down. That does not fit particularly well with your hypothesis. Either your hypothesised fruitcake was untroubled about voting for a militantly Remain party or they stuck with the devil they knew.
Or alternatively the loss of turnout caused by disgruntlement of the hypothesised fruitcakes was compensated for by increased enthusiasm amongst Revokers.
> Mr. B2, not quite no competition, but very little.
>
> The fudgy middle has the main two parties and the Remain/second referendum side is split altogether more. It'd be quite surprising if the Brexit Party didn't win.
Remember: Voting Tory or Labour is a wasted vote!
Speculating about fruitcakes is a tricky art. Where I live party labels mean little in local elections. I had the good fortune of a choice of decent people I know and like and never looked at the party. Same with County Council where I vote for a person in a party I would never vote for in a GE. I may not be the only one. I maintain however that Brexit supporters, understandably fed up with Lab/Con had nowhere to go. (I had three votes, two went to Tories, one Labour none of this relating to Brexit or party but all to do with local issues like swimming pools and civic facilities).
> > @algarkirk said:
>
> > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
>
> >
>
> > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
>
>
>
> I still think it odd ukip did so very badly where they did stand
>
> UKIP come across now as what their detractors tried to make them out to be in 2013-2016, which was obviously a very wide of the mark scare tactic.
If these leavers are so numerous and so fired up, I don't see why that would make much difference. It's a pure protest vote after all, and the only one on offer
92% disapprove of the way the Government has handled EU-related negotiations:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125747803077083145
> I must be off now, but you may enjoy this fun stat:
> 92% disapprove of the way the Government has handled EU-related negotiations:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125747803077083145
If nearly half want no deal and the other half remain then this is about right
But, it is quite wrong to think this is a substantial resurgence to the strength prior to 2010.
Just look at a town they once controlled, and a city whose Parliamentary seat they held until 2015 -- Remainer Central or Cambridge.
They are still a long, long way back, pinned in the local elections to a few University-dominated wards.
The LibDems are at the beginning of a long, long trek back. They can perhaps looks forward to 20 seats at the net General Election, assuming one or other or the parties does not come to its senses.
I won't be voting for them ever again, though.
> I must be off now, but you may enjoy this fun stat:
> 92% disapprove of the way the Government has handled EU-related negotiations:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125747803077083145
Which does beg the question...who are the 8%?
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
>
> I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
>
> Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
Independents gained 215 seats in the local elections and a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates
Very strange, and a little worrying...
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > I must be off now, but you may enjoy this fun stat:
> > 92% disapprove of the way the Government has handled EU-related negotiations:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125747803077083145
>
> If nearly half want no deal and the other half remain then this is about right
The ORB in its other questions does its best to lead the respondent to answer in a manner supporting Leave and still fails .
> It would be churlish to deny the LibDems a little bit of sunshine, given the torrential downpours that have occurred since 2010.
>
> But, it is quite wrong to think this is a substantial resurgence to the strength prior to 2010.
>
> Just look at a town they once controlled, and a city whose Parliamentary seat they held until 2015 -- Remainer Central or Cambridge.
>
> They are still a long, long way back, pinned in the local elections to a few University-dominated wards.
>
> The LibDems are at the beginning of a long, long trek back. They can perhaps looks forward to 20 seats at the net General Election, assuming one or other or the parties does not come to its senses.
>
> I won't be voting for them ever again, though.
Where the LDs surged was Remain voting commuter belt areas like Guildford, Chelmsford and Tunbridge Wells which are fed up with the Tories and dislike their local plans and new developments but will not vote for Corbyn Labour.
> > @DavidL said:
> > On topic Mike is clearly right in pointing out the absurdity of arguing that Lib Dem and Green gains (Lord help us) are not connected with Brexit but I don't think that that proves a lot about the popularity of Brexit one way or the other. Instead, in elections where there was just over 30% turnout, what is clear is that there was differential turnout.
> >
> > Tories, disgruntled at the failure to deliver Brexit, did not vote in unusually large numbers. Remainers who wanted to make a point probably had an equally unusual participation rate and supported those whom they perceived as anti-Brexit. Labour supporters were probably disillusioned if they wanted Brexit, disappointed in their party's position if they didn't or just totally confused.
> >
> > Many of these trends are likely to be repeated in the Euros. The Tories face an absolute pasting with the majority of their supporters who turn out likely to make a point by voting for the Brexit Party. The Lib Dems now have a better chance of becoming the remainer party but have to compete with the CUKs (assuming they ever get their act together) and the Greens. Labour supporters will have yet more confusion to deal with.
>
> The differential swing from Tories occurred mostly in Remain favouring areas, not Leave voting areas, and overall turnout was par for the course for stand alone Locals. It does look like Tory Remainers looking for a new home.
>
> https://twitter.com/RichSwinford/status/1124610187229302784?s=19
>
> I think the pro Remain turnout will be good for the Euros.
>
>
Tories were saved by having no Brexit Party candidates and few UKIP candidates in Leave voting areas.
In Remain voting areas though they had the LDs to contend with
https://britainelects.com/2019/05/05/reviewing-the-2019-local-elections/
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> It is a bit strange though, if we take it that the locals results indicate an almighty swing behind REMAIN, that TBP are now 1.16 from 1.4ish for the Euros
>
> As it happens, I think TBP are a bit too short (I still wonder how many voters in the polling booth are going to be confused by UKIP). But with the Remain vote likely to be split between three parties right the way to polling day, the single issue election is going to be fought between two sides one with a structural advantage.
>
> One point I've not heard anyone mention is that EU citizens can vote in EU elections. Anecdotally, quite a few sound as though they have registered to vote. I don't know how the pollsters allow for different electorates but it might be worth mentally adding a percent or so on the Remain side's vote share, especially in London.
I've been successfully recruiting EU citizens to vote in the EU election.
Disappointing if so.
The locals can only be seen through the Brexit lens up to a point because the LD protest was not only a Remain phenomenon. The Euro vote shares, with a full spectrum of candidates and a much better mapping of voting reason to Brexit, will be a better guide, with 3 groupings:
LD, Green, CHUK unambiguously about having a second referendum specifically in order to remain
Lab, Con a voter set who still have some residual patience with the process. Some will want a referendum, some a deal, but essentially they are Process abiders.
UKIP, Brexit are get on with Leaving, even if means no deal.
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
I would not go as far as to suggest that 'it had nothing to do with Brexit' , but suggest that much of it was an anti-Esatablishment vote. The gains were too scattered among a range of groups for it to be likely to have been a positive vote for a particular cause.
> Anyone any thoughts or speculation as to why Pompeo has pulled out of meeting Merkel, and where he is headed?
> Very strange, and a little worrying...
Maybe he's generated more pressing work after apparently calling Canada's claim on the Northwest Passage 'illegitimate'.
> > @isam said:
> > > @algarkirk said:
> >
> > > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
> >
> >
> >
> > I still think it odd ukip did so very badly where they did stand
> >
> > UKIP come across now as what their detractors tried to make them out to be in 2013-2016, which was obviously a very wide of the mark scare tactic.
>
> If these leavers are so numerous and so fired up, I don't see why that would make much difference. It's a pure protest vote after all, and the only one on offer
And indeed these defending Kipper councillors are longstanding ones, not Tommy Robinsons mates. They could just be useless of course, but they are unlikely to be fascists.
> It would be churlish to deny the LibDems a little bit of sunshine, given the torrential downpours that have occurred since 2010.
>
> But, it is quite wrong to think this is a substantial resurgence to the strength prior to 2010.
>
> Just look at a town they once controlled, and a city whose Parliamentary seat they held until 2015 -- Remainer Central or Cambridge.
>
> They are still a long, long way back, pinned in the local elections to a few University-dominated wards.
>
> The LibDems are at the beginning of a long, long trek back. They can perhaps looks forward to 20 seats at the net General Election, assuming one or other or the parties does not come to its senses.
>
> I won't be voting for them ever again, though.
According to Rallings& Thrasher the LibDem share this year was 17% - compared with 18% at the 2017 Local Elections. They certainly failed to repeat that at the GE just five weeks later!
> https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/1125776898120876032
I don't get the point of that tweet - we all know the timeline here. May probably meant every word of it, it wasn't duplicity, it was weakness.
> > @isam said:
> > https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/1125776898120876032
>
> I don't get the point - we all know the timeline here.
Odd as it may seem, some people really do still believe May when she says things. These strange creatures are especially overrepresented among Conservative MPs
> May I briefly decloak after years of lurking on this site to point out to @YBarddCwsc that the result of the council election last week in Cambridge was that Labour got 12208 votes (37.2%) to the Liberal Democrats' 11277 votes (34.4%). Labour elected 9 councillors, the Liberal Democrats 7. That is not 'a long, long way back'. It is very, very close.
Well said sir
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> I would not go as far as to suggest that 'it had nothing to do with Brexit' , but suggest that much of it was an anti-Esatablishment vote. The gains were too scattered among a range of groups for it to be likely to have been a positive vote for a particular cause.
Indeed. It was, in part, an anti-incumbency vote. The results in Derbyshire being a good example. Amber Valley and High Peak going to Lab from Con. NE Derbyshire the opposite. Labour cratering in Bolsover and Derby, and losing control.
Labour did worst where they were in power. The Tories lost a great deal cos they were in power in a lot of places.
Council services are being cut, Council Tax is going up and folk are noticing.
Which is not to say Brexit didn't play a large part.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/1125776898120876032
> >
> > I don't get the point - we all know the timeline here.
>
> Odd as it may seem, some people really do still believe May when she says things. These strange creatures are especially overrepresented among Conservative MPs
Responding to the edited version of your message: it's bizarre that we think that in the realm of politics, conflating what you want to happen with what you believe will happen in order to impress the public is acceptible. If I told everyone I was going to beat the world record marathon time, got them all excited about my impending celebrity, actually failed to finish, and said "yeah, well I <i>wanted</I> to beat the record though", nobody would give me a free pass
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/1125776898120876032
> >
> > I don't get the point - we all know the timeline here.
>
> Odd as it may seem, some people really do still believe May when she says things. These strange creatures are especially overrepresented among Conservative MPs
I think it quite reasonable to believe she believes much of what she ways (not all - the lateness in recognising we would not be leaving being one in fairness), she just is wrong about her beliefs and more MPs should recognise that. Of course, this involves a group who believe the best way to show how truly you believe in leaving the EU is to remain in the EU and sulk, so there's weirdness all over.
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/1125776898120876032
> > >
> > > I don't get the point - we all know the timeline here.
> >
> > Odd as it may seem, some people really do still believe May when she says things. These strange creatures are especially overrepresented among Conservative MPs
>
> Responding to the edited version of your message: it's bizarre that we think that in the realm of politics, conflating what you want to happen with what you believe will happen in order to impress the public is acceptible. If I told everyone I was going to beat the world record marathon time, got them all excited about my impending celebrity, actually failed to finish, and said "yeah, well I <i>wanted</I> to beat the record though", nobody would give me a free pass
A very fair point. We are amazingly lenient on our politicians for doing it, and punish them if they do try to make a realistic message.
It would be very interesting to see a map showing where the 'Independent' gains were.
> May I briefly decloak after years of lurking on this site to point out to @YBarddCwsc that the result of the council election last week in Cambridge was that Labour got 12208 votes (37.2%) to the Liberal Democrats' 11277 votes (34.4%). Labour elected 9 councillors, the Liberal Democrats 7. That is not 'a long, long way back'. It is very, very close.
But the LDs invariably outperform at Local Elections - indeed on the basis of the May 2017 results they would have won the seat at the GE five weeks later. In fact, they lost by 12000.
> I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
Indeed. "We love Brexit, but are incompetent, so we can't see it through. Vote us!"
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/hijakejohnstone/status/1125776898120876032
> > >
> > > I don't get the point - we all know the timeline here.
> >
> > Odd as it may seem, some people really do still believe May when she says things. These strange creatures are especially overrepresented among Conservative MPs
>
> I think it quite reasonable to believe she believes much of what she ways (not all - the lateness in recognising we would not be leaving being one in fairness), she just is wrong about her beliefs and more MPs should recognise that. Of course, this involves a group who believe the best way to show how truly you believe in leaving the EU is to remain in the EU and sulk, so there's weirdness all over.
On the big picture stuff I agree that she believes what she says. I think she genuinely believes her deal is the best possible deal that respects the referendum result. I think she genuinely believed that the EU would relent and remove the backstop, or that they'd agree to Chequers.
But on lower level matters she's been very willing to lie or mislead. Back when the government still used to win Brexit votes, there were multiple cases of her calling potential rebels into a private room and making them promises which were immediately backtracked after the vote. In some cases she called in rebels from both sides separately and told them opposing stories hoping- correctly- that things wouldn't disintegrate fast enough for her to lose the votes. And I think she was willfully lying about her listening exercise, and about not deliberately running down the clock.
So I think she's very honest about her goal, but not at all honest in the way she goes about achieving it.
A general election in Denmark has been called for 5th June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Danish_general_election
> I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
> > @David_Howarth said:
> > May I briefly decloak after years of lurking on this site to point out to @YBarddCwsc that the result of the council election last week in Cambridge was that Labour got 12208 votes (37.2%) to the Liberal Democrats' 11277 votes (34.4%). Labour elected 9 councillors, the Liberal Democrats 7. That is not 'a long, long way back'. It is very, very close.
>
> But the LDs invariably outperform at Local Elections - indeed on the basis of the May 2017 results they would have won the seat at the GE five weeks later. In fact, they lost by 12000.
There is an element of truth in what you say, but as tuition fees and coalition become more distant, and the shine comes off Jezza, I am optomistic that we are on the way back. I look forward to a new leader who shows up the tired old has beens leading the other parties.
> > @solarflare said:
> > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
>
> No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what.
Is it the fact of being split that turns off voters, or the consequence - that a split party spends its time arguing with itself rather than talking with the voters?
Maybe if a party could be split in a constructive way, and still talk to the voters, then it might do better?
The Tories seemed to be doing okay when they were able to be on both sides of the Brexit argument.
> > @saddo said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
> >
> > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
>
> I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what.
I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage.
> The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> It is a bit strange though, if we take it that the locals results indicate an almighty swing behind REMAIN, that TBP are now 1.16 from 1.4ish for the Euros
>
> As it happens, I think TBP are a bit too short (I still wonder how many voters in the polling booth are going to be confused by UKIP). But with the Remain vote likely to be split between three parties right the way to polling day, the single issue election is going to be fought between two sides one with a structural advantage.
>
> One point I've not heard anyone mention is that EU citizens can vote in EU elections. Anecdotally, quite a few sound as though they have registered to vote. I don't know how the pollsters allow for different electorates but it might be worth mentally adding a percent or so on the Remain side's vote share, especially in London.
Pollsters generally ask if their respondents are qualified to vote in any particular election.
> May I briefly decloak after years of lurking on this site to point out to @YBarddCwsc that the result of the council election last week in Cambridge was that Labour got 12208 votes (37.2%) to the Liberal Democrats' 11277 votes (34.4%). Labour elected 9 councillors, the Liberal Democrats 7. That is not 'a long, long way back'. It is very, very close.
The LibDems took Market from the Greens -- but they are a long way back in wards like Romsey Town or Arbury that they once held.
In Romsey, which I think is the former ward of the last LibDem Council leader, the LibDems were 3rd behind the Greens.
Still, I don’t begrudge the LibDem some smiles.
Orban refuses to endorse Weber as EPP candidate.
The arithmetic in Brussels is going to be challenging for the old guard and there's a reasonable chance the EU will find itself as gripped by inertia as the UK. Refusing to compromise appears to be contagious.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-44047135
> > @David_Howarth said:
> > May I briefly decloak after years of lurking on this site to point out to @YBarddCwsc that the result of the council election last week in Cambridge was that Labour got 12208 votes (37.2%) to the Liberal Democrats' 11277 votes (34.4%). Labour elected 9 councillors, the Liberal Democrats 7. That is not 'a long, long way back'. It is very, very close.
>
> The LibDems took Market from the Greens -- but they are a long way back in wards like Romsey Town or Arbury that they once held.
>
> In Romsey, which I think is the former ward of the last LibDem Council leader, the LibDems were 3rd behind the Greens.
>
> Still, I don’t begrudge the LibDem some smiles.
Romsey is part of the Test Valley Local Authority. LDs did rather well there.
It looks to me that the LDs had a clean sweep of the Romsey wards:
https://www.testvalley.gov.uk/aboutyourcouncil/localdemocracy/elections/election-results-section/elections-2-may-2019-results
Incidentally, I cannot see any Greens, are you looking at the right area? The Andover Alliance group did well in Andover, and the Tories held some of the more rural seats.
> Tipping my hat to David Howarth XMP, the most surprising result in Cambridge was that the LibDems held Trumpington, after this extraordinary debacle,
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-44047135
>
Once upon a time Trumpington was very Tory, and it is still the posh end of town, but of course they are mostly remainers given the occupations of Cambridge residents. So the LibDems were at no risk to losing to the Tories.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > @David_Howarth said:
> > > May I briefly decloak after years of lurking on this site to point out to @YBarddCwsc that the result of the council election last week in Cambridge was that Labour got 12208 votes (37.2%) to the Liberal Democrats' 11277 votes (34.4%). Labour elected 9 councillors, the Liberal Democrats 7. That is not 'a long, long way back'. It is very, very close.
> >
> > The LibDems took Market from the Greens -- but they are a long way back in wards like Romsey Town or Arbury that they once held.
> >
> > In Romsey, which I think is the former ward of the last LibDem Council leader, the LibDems were 3rd behind the Greens.
> >
> > Still, I don’t begrudge the LibDem some smiles.
>
> Romsey is part of the Test Valley Local Authority. LDs did rather well there.
>
> It looks to me that the LDs had a clean sweep of the Romsey wards:
>
> https://www.testvalley.gov.uk/aboutyourcouncil/localdemocracy/elections/election-results-section/elections-2-may-2019-results
Romsey Town, Cambridge.
I suspect there are many Romseys in the world.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
> >
> > It is a bit strange though, if we take it that the locals results indicate an almighty swing behind REMAIN, that TBP are now 1.16 from 1.4ish for the Euros
> >
> > As it happens, I think TBP are a bit too short (I still wonder how many voters in the polling booth are going to be confused by UKIP). But with the Remain vote likely to be split between three parties right the way to polling day, the single issue election is going to be fought between two sides one with a structural advantage.
> >
> > One point I've not heard anyone mention is that EU citizens can vote in EU elections. Anecdotally, quite a few sound as though they have registered to vote. I don't know how the pollsters allow for different electorates but it might be worth mentally adding a percent or so on the Remain side's vote share, especially in London.
>
> I've been successfully recruiting EU citizens to vote in the EU election.
In your part of the world, the LibDems are clued up and active enough to make that effort. But I doubt anyone is slogging round the estates of Peterborough or Lincolnshire of a night with a sheaf of UC1 forms under their arm. The turnout of EU citizens nationwide is likely to be very low and nowhere near as significant as Meeks suggests.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > > @David_Howarth said:
> > > > May I briefly decloak after years of lurking on this site to point out to @YBarddCwsc that the result of the council election last week in Cambridge was that Labour got 12208 votes (37.2%) to the Liberal Democrats' 11277 votes (34.4%). Labour elected 9 councillors, the Liberal Democrats 7. That is not 'a long, long way back'. It is very, very close.
> > >
> > > The LibDems took Market from the Greens -- but they are a long way back in wards like Romsey Town or Arbury that they once held.
> > >
> > > In Romsey, which I think is the former ward of the last LibDem Council leader, the LibDems were 3rd behind the Greens.
> > >
> > > Still, I don’t begrudge the LibDem some smiles.
> >
> > Romsey is part of the Test Valley Local Authority. LDs did rather well there.
> >
> > It looks to me that the LDs had a clean sweep of the Romsey wards:
> >
> > https://www.testvalley.gov.uk/aboutyourcouncil/localdemocracy/elections/election-results-section/elections-2-may-2019-results
>
> Romsey Town, Cambridge.
>
> I suspect there are many Romseys in the world.
I don't know it, but I do know the Romsey in Hants which does show a very strong LD revival.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > Tipping my hat to David Howarth XMP, the most surprising result in Cambridge was that the LibDems held Trumpington, after this extraordinary debacle,
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-44047135
> >
>
> Once upon a time Trumpington was very Tory, and it is still the posh end of town, but of course they are mostly remainers given the occupations of Cambridge residents. So the LibDems were at no risk to losing to the Tories.
Errr ... Trumpington has a Labour Councillor.
And Labour were in second place last week. Just behind the LibDems.
Your knowledge of Cambridge seems to date from circa 1920.
> > @algarkirk said:
>
> > The Lib Dems and the Greens did well. It's amazing how hard some commentators have tried to challenge that pretty straightforward observation or to suggest that it had nothing to do with Brexit.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I think wait and see is the only option. Firstly, this was a streetlight, library and swimming pool set of elections. Some people no doubt vote on Brussels related issues when voting for a parish or borough council but actually that's crazy. Greens and Lib Dems are perfectly sensible options for local matters even if you think that muesli and sandals won't do when it comes to NATO or internal security.
>
> >
>
> > Secondly suppose you decided not to vote Lab/Con because they are both divided and useless, and you are a Brexiteer. Who would you vote for in a this borough election to register this? UKIP have gone fascist, Brexit wasn't standing. Nowhere to go to register Brexity discontent. Later in May will tell us more.
>
>
>
> a lot of Leavers voted for Independent candidates
>
> How do you know?
The Independent candidate in Epping was even once a UKIP candidate
> We > @Foxy said:
> > > @saddo said:
> > > > @solarflare said:
> > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
> > >
> > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
> >
> > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what.
>
> I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage.
That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > Tipping my hat to David Howarth XMP, the most surprising result in Cambridge was that the LibDems held Trumpington, after this extraordinary debacle,
> > >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-44047135
> > >
> >
> > Once upon a time Trumpington was very Tory, and it is still the posh end of town, but of course they are mostly remainers given the occupations of Cambridge residents. So the LibDems were at no risk to losing to the Tories.
>
> Errr ... Trumpington has a Labour Councillor.
>
> And Labour were in second place last week. Just behind the LibDems.
>
> Your knowledge of Cambridge seems to date from circa 1920.
Though I do see that the Cambridge results are visible on the @BritainElects site, and conveniently colour coded. Plenty of orange bars, so clearly not well behind:
http://britainelects.com/results/le2019/
It's an all-out election next year on substantially different boundaries, so it's not worth swapping figures for this ward or that. What matters is the city-wide total, and the fact is that city-wide the swing from 2018 to 2019 was 5.9% from Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
BTW The last Lib Dem council leader represented Market ward, not Romsey.
@IanB2
Hi, Ian.
Trumpington has undergone very great demographic change recently, but last year's result was something of a fluke. The Liberal Democrats also held the county seat in a by-election on Thursday (confusingly on slightly different boundaries).
> > @DavidL said:
> > We > @Foxy said:
> > > > @saddo said:
> > > > > @solarflare said:
> > > > > I'm looking forward to the Conservative "campaign" for the Euro elections: "even though we're still hoping to leave and the plan is these guys won't actually take their MEP seats, vote for us anyway"?
> > > >
> > > > No Tory voter will vote for a party lead by Theresa May.
> > >
> > > I suspect there will be the odd one like Granny Foxy, who will vote blue no matter what.
> >
> > I would be genuinely astonished if this is not the worst Tory performance in a national election since universal suffrage.
> That is very likely, if the Brexit Party get 30% as YouGov currently has them on that would also be the best result for a non Tory or non Labour third party in a national election since universal suffrage too
>
An interesting betting market for the Euros would be LDs vs Tories, vs Lab, vs Green etc in head to head votes. I wonder if Shadsy is interested.
I did pick up LD 130/1 as top party. Not likely, but not that unlikely, particularly picking up former Tories and Lab supporters. A second place market may be tempting too.
https://modgov.waverley.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=923
Great division name though.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > Tipping my hat to David Howarth XMP, the most surprising result in Cambridge was that the LibDems held Trumpington, after this extraordinary debacle,
> > >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-44047135
> > >
> >
> > Once upon a time Trumpington was very Tory, and it is still the posh end of town, but of course they are mostly remainers given the occupations of Cambridge residents. So the LibDems were at no risk to losing to the Tories.
>
> Errr ... Trumpington has a Labour Councillor.
>
> And Labour were in second place last week. Just behind the LibDems.
>
> Your knowledge of Cambridge seems to date from circa 1920.
Not quite 1920, but it would appear a little behind the times nevertheless
https://twitter.com/bbcessex/status/1125841101187887104?s=21