> @edmundintokyo said: > > @houndtang said: > > What is with all the arrows in the block quotes? The threads are becoming unreadable. > > Seems to be a vanilla upgrade. Until it's fixed we need people to relearn the old-school art of trimming and only quote the sentence or two they're responding to.
You can avoid the arrows by using the actual Vanilla site:
> @thecommissioner said: > > @kle4 said: > > Could Jeremy Corbyn save the Conservative Party by agreeing a deal? On the basis we are often our own worst enemy it would be fitting. > > Looking at Thursday's council election results, Labour retained 96% of their seat total. > > Losses in metropolitan areas like Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds were minimal - just the odd seat here and there. 'Labour leave' areas like Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Stockton, Ashfield, Bolsover etc were notably less supportive. > > There are a bloc of 20-30 Labour MPs all sitting in Leave constituencies who need a deal or they will be at risk. Corbyn can afford to shed huge amounts of votes in certain parts of the big cities and still retain the seats. > > Furthermore, Labour remain 100 or so short of a majority (after defections/deselections). Where are they getting these extra seats from to form a government? > > If he doesn't deal, how does he find a way to win? How does he find a way to spread the Labour vote more effectively rather than piling up 80% of the vote in zone 1-3 London? Most seats voted Leave. > > If Labour had supported May's deal, would they have been in power by now?
His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> @kle4 said: > https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1124940468809293825 > > > > An unedifying proxy battle. I doubt most defending him care if he leaked or not (particularly since they use arguments involving criminal standards of proof) but now May and co also dont care since they'll try to point to his general incompetence. Problem is he wasn't sacked for being crap at his job, and she never cared he was crap before.
She probably cared but felt fairly powerless to act without clear cause. Hasnt she already lost the most ministers and it is hard to find replacements who have not already resigned/been sacked/dont have confidence in her or sometimes a mix of all three......
That's a great photo at the top of the thread. Looks almost like an 18th century painting with all the little details - Whittingdale slouching, the woman on the right wagging her finger, Bercow and the Tory MP on the left clutching their brows....
However, I would say it is not the FTPA per se but the combination of the following 2 things that is trapping us in this Brexit hellhole.
1. The decision of the Supreme Court to side with Gina Miller, resulting in Parliament having the power, via the Meaningful Vote, to block the Withdrawal Agreement which seeks to give legal effect to the result of the 2016 EU Referendum, i.e. take us out of the European Union.
2. The fact that the governing Conservative Party, for reasons well documented, find the prospect of Theresa May leading them into another General Election to be intolerable, and yet, for reasons also well documented, cannot bring themselves to replace her with anybody else.
(1) Sets up the impasse. (2) Prevents it being broken.
> @OldKingCole said: > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors.
Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
Just had a YouGov survey, unsurprusingly on Brexit options. Single Market and Customs Union was one, which is interesting as I don't think that is one of the options talked of.
> @houndtang said: > That's a great photo at the top of the thread. Looks almost like an 18th century painting with all the little details - Whittingdale slouching, the woman on the right wagging her finger, Bercow and the Tory MP on the left clutching their brows....
It is. And Whittingdale looks like he could lose a few.
> @houndtang said: > That's a great photo at the top of the thread. Looks almost like an 18th century painting with all the little details - Whittingdale slouching, the woman on the right wagging her finger, Bercow and the Tory MP on the left clutching their brows....
There's been a quite a few really good photos coming out of the Commons recently for some reason.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
Exactly.
GE with Brexit not delivered:
Lab 30% Con 20% Farage 20% CH/LIB 20% OTHERS 10%
PM Corbyn.
EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> @Foxy said: > Some anecdata: > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way. > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
Football wise - I took the precaution of making my annual Tottenham choke bet when we were 9-1 to finish outside the top 4. I also bet on Bournemouth to win yesterday. Those winnings have been reinvested in bets on Everton winning or drawing next Sunday. I will either be just over £1,300 or £1,400 richer depending on which of those it is.
May and her dwindling band of acolytes are spinning this 'deal is close' line so that they can blame Labour when it doesn't happen and the ecumenical talks collapse.
Our side need to make it clear that Tory intransigence is to blame, so that we can carry on balancing on the fence until some form of votes comes back to the Commons.
I wonder if Jezza will hide behind the old ‘but you have no history of success in the Euro Elections’ card to swerve it? He could debate Batten instead!
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Foxy said: > > Some anecdata: > > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way. > > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day. > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem. > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
> @Sean_F said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors. > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > Some anecdata: > > > > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way. > > > > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day. > > > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem. > > > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE. > > Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
Either all of the anti-Brexit parties have to pull votes off Labour, or one of them has to finish the other two off.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > Good article from Alastair! > > Congrats to Nick P on his election > > Congrats also to Cyclefree Jr. Does he actually read PB?
No. Like all my family, he thinks it some strange perversion of mine, though he did describe my recent articles as me "machine gun firing articles into the internet" which I rather liked.
Of course, when he wants help with his politics/economics studies his attitude is a little different and he was immensely proud when my name came up in the context of banking fraud ......
He is revising banking which he told me yesterday was very boring. I told him that banking was meant to be boring, had been far too exciting recently for its own good, let alone ours, and that he really should not write in his exam that all bankers were fuckwits, even if I had assured him on numerous occasions that this was indeed the case.
He has a summer of festivals and travel planned which he is looking forward to hugely.
> @kinabalu said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > Exactly. > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > Lab 30% > Con 20% > Farage 20% > CH/LIB 20% > OTHERS 10% > > PM Corbyn. > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
How the Brexit/Tory vote would split by seat would be interesting to understand. I would guess the wealthy/young seats become Tory/LD marginals, the wealthy/old seats stay Tory, the averagy seats become multi way marginals, with the poorer Tory seats becoming Labour/Brexit marginals.
Labour getting an overall majority from this strategy feels a long shot but becoming the largest party and increasing its number of MPs feels probable from here if no Brexit is delivered.
Of course a "normal" Labour leader could just clean up on 40%.....
> @SandyRentool said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > Some anecdata: > > > > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way. > > > > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day. > > > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem. > > > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE. > > Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
> @SandyRentool said: > May and her dwindling band of acolytes are spinning this 'deal is close' line so that they can blame Labour when it doesn't happen and the ecumenical talks collapse. > > Our side need to make it clear that Tory intransigence is to blame, so that we can carry on balancing on the fence until some form of votes comes back to the Commons.
While I do not doubt that your scenario is indeed the Tory plan, if the Tories have made an offer on CU then it can hardly be purely Tory instransigence to blame, since they will have made an offer which is closer to the Labour position.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors. > > > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively. > > Hopeful, no?
It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority.
> @kinabalu said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > Exactly. > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > Lab 30% > Con 20% > Farage 20% > CH/LIB 20% > OTHERS 10% > > PM Corbyn. > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> @kinabalu said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > Exactly. > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > Lab 30% > Con 20% > Farage 20% > CH/LIB 20% > OTHERS 10% > > PM Corbyn. > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path.
In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > Exactly. > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > Lab 30% > > Con 20% > > Farage 20% > > CH/LIB 20% > > OTHERS 10% > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > How the Brexit/Tory vote would split by seat would be interesting to understand. I would guess the wealthy/young seats become Tory/LD marginals, the wealthy/old seats stay Tory, the averagy seats become multi way marginals, with the poorer Tory seats becoming Labour/Brexit marginals. > > Labour getting an overall majority from this strategy feels a long shot but becoming the largest party and increasing its number of MPs feels probable from here if no Brexit is delivered. > > Of course a "normal" Labour leader could just clean up on 40%.....
I can remember a lot of arguments from 2013/15 that 33% would deliver a Labour majority.
Sure, but under Dehondt the question is not numbers of votes, but also numbers of seats. A LD gain in the West Midlands is reasonably likely. In the smaller and more Brexity East Midlands Greens were fractionally ahead of LDs last time, but both well below the seat threshold. I think the LDs are now the better prospect after the Locals.
> @HYUFD said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > Exactly. > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > Lab 30% > > Con 20% > > Farage 20% > > CH/LIB 20% > > OTHERS 10% > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > > @kinabalu said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > Exactly. > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > Lab 30% > > Con 20% > > Farage 20% > > CH/LIB 20% > > OTHERS 10% > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > GE with Brexit not delivered > > Farage 30% > Lab 23% > Con 13% > LD 10% > CH 5% > > PM Farage
I think PM Farage is possible but those numbers for the next election are not. Tories and Labour both have a higher floor in a GE, maybe 26/18. If the polls were indicating anything close to your outcome ahead of a GE, a leadership change for either main party would drag them back up quite quickly.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > Some anecdata: > > > > > > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way. > > > > > > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day. > > > > > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem. > > > > > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE. > > > > Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider? > > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that.
> > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way.
> > > >
> > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
> > >
> > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
> > >
> > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
> >
> > Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
>
> I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that.
In London CHUK are pretty sure to get one seat, but unlikely to get a second, while both Greens and LD may be borderline for one. Any of the three is a reasonable vote though.
Dehondt not as good as other systems of PR in my view.
> @Sean_F said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors. > > > > > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively. > > > > Hopeful, no? > > It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority.
Have we any idea of the demographics of the Alliance/Green vote? Just wondering whether what's hoped for is beginning to happen; younger people discarding the battle-lines of the past.
> @Cyclefree said: > > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > > > Exactly. > > > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > > > Lab 30% > > > Con 20% > > > Farage 20% > > > CH/LIB 20% > > > OTHERS 10% > > > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > > > Exactly. > > > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > > > Lab 30% > > > Con 20% > > > Farage 20% > > > CH/LIB 20% > > > OTHERS 10% > > > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered > > > > Farage 30% > > Lab 23% > > Con 13% > > LD 10% > > CH 5% > > > > PM Farage > > I think PM Farage is possible but those numbers for the next election are not. Tories and Labour both have a higher floor in a GE, maybe 26/18. If the polls were indicating anything close to your outcome ahead of a GE, a leadership change for either main party would drag them back up quite quickly.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election Leavers will be so furious normal politics will no longer apply and even leadership changes may not be enough to stop them voting Brexit Party and for Farage to become PM to ensure Brexit is finally delivered and their Leave win in 2016 respected
Thanks for a great header @ AlastairMeeks. Thanks a bunch to Cameron and Clegg who have sailed off to pastures new leaving their successors entangled with their grotesque FTPA innovation.
> @ThomasNashe said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > Some anecdata: > > > > > > > > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way. > > > > > > > > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day. > > > > > > > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem. > > > > > > > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE. > > > > > > Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider? > > > > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies? > > CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that.
I hope they do ok for that very reason. Even if we accept that argument that some or all of them would have been deselected, and I doubt all were, and even if we accept vanity or whatever was partly behind the choice of a new party rather than joining another, the choice they made was not easy and I respect that.
> @Sean_F said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > > > Exactly. > > > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > > > Lab 30% > > > Con 20% > > > Farage 20% > > > CH/LIB 20% > > > OTHERS 10% > > > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > > > How the Brexit/Tory vote would split by seat would be interesting to understand. I would guess the wealthy/young seats become Tory/LD marginals, the wealthy/old seats stay Tory, the averagy seats become multi way marginals, with the poorer Tory seats becoming Labour/Brexit marginals. > > > > Labour getting an overall majority from this strategy feels a long shot but becoming the largest party and increasing its number of MPs feels probable from here if no Brexit is delivered. > > > > Of course a "normal" Labour leader could just clean up on 40%..... > > I can remember a lot of arguments from 2013/15 that 33% would deliver a Labour majority.
33% could deliver a Brexit Party majority if we are still in the EU at the next general election and Remain voters split between the Tories, Labour and LDs
> @isam said: > Ruth Davidson comes out in favour of a Deal plus Customs Union on Mars as a compromise between the extremes of reversing Brexit or No Deal > > Would that involve signing up to FOM with Mars?
> @Foxy said: > @SouthamObserver@SandyRentool > > > Sure, but under Dehondt the question is not numbers of votes, but also numbers of seats. A LD gain in the West Midlands is reasonably likely. In the smaller and more Brexity East Midlands Greens were fractionally ahead of LDs last time, but both well below the seat threshold. I think the LDs are now the better prospect after the Locals.
> @HYUFD said: > > @isam said: > > Ruth Davidson comes out in favour of a Deal plus Customs Union on Mars as a compromise between the extremes of reversing Brexit or No Deal > > > > Would that involve signing up to FOM with Mars? > > Marr, sorry
That's a shame, as if going for a Customs Union we should probably aim big.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors. > > > > > > > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively. > > > > > > Hopeful, no? > > > > It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority. > > Have we any idea of the demographics of the Alliance/Green vote? Just wondering whether what's hoped for is beginning to happen; younger people discarding the battle-lines of the past.
Younger, very middle class, religiously unaffiliated, but picking up some support outside that group.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @HYUFD said: > > GE with Brexit not delivered > > > > Farage 30% > > Lab 23% > > Con 13% > > LD 10% > > CH 5% > > > > PM Farage > > That depends on some quite heroic assumptions about which 19% of the voters have been raptured
The remainder would split between the Greens, SNP, UKIP, Plaid, the DUP etc
I note noone (On Twitter) is actually trying to persuade the other side in this debate now.
Twitter is a terrible platform for debate, because it is inherently self-segregating into networks of likeminded people. On the other hand it is a brilliant platform for confirming your prejudices, and spreading disinformation and propaganda.
I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies? > > ____________________________________________________________________ > > On the latest YouGov poll for the Euros for the London Region, the Greens are on 11% and the LibDems are on 9%. > > With eight MEP seats for London under D'Hondt, the Greens get the 7th seat but the 8th seat is a toss-up between Labour 27%/3 and LD 9%. > > So my advice would be to vote LibDem and deny Labour its 3rd seat as the Greens are likely to get their one seat anyway unaided by you.
I'm neither a Labour nor Conservative vote but I find it impressive that IDS managed to describe Labour's local election result as "very similar" to that of the Conservatives.
> @SouthamObserver said: > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
There's potentially an upside to watching TMay back it then the rest of the Tories kill it. It doesn't feel very big compared to the downside, though.
Also if it goes through he gets Brexit, which I guess is an upside for him.
> @SouthamObserver said: > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
I think he could whip it, the upside is to be seen to be statesmanlike and more importantly to start to move things on from Brexit onto more fertile ground for Labour.
Ruth Davidson comes out in favour of a Deal plus Customs Union on Mars as a compromise between the extremes of reversing Brexit or No Deal
So still talking about a CU primarily because it’s a compromise, rather than what a CU actually is and how it might work in practice?
I despair of and despise the lot of them, am now expecting Farage and his Brexit Party to get closer to 40% than 30% in the EU elections - followed by a MP for Peterborough.
> @Foxy said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies? > > > > CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that. > > In London CHUK are pretty sure to get one seat, but unlikely to get a second, while both Greens and LD may be borderline for one. Any of the three is a reasonable vote though. > > Dehondt not as good as other systems of PR in my view.
Agree D'Hondt is a fairly crap system but it's what we've got.
In London, on latest YG figures the seats are allocated as follows:
1 Lab 2 Brexit 3 Lab 4 CHUK 5 Con 6. Brexit 7 Green 8 Deadheat Lab/LD
You are right CHUK are almost certain to get one seat and no more. Same for Green. An LD vote is the one that is most effective.
If CHUK, LD and Green stood as one party - Remain - the seat allocation would be as follows:
> @kle4 said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric. > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169 > > That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path. > > In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
It's not a few meaningless slogans but the sentiment behind them. She chose to make the EU the enemy and created a 'them and us' The vast swathes of the country who didn't see the EU like that chose 'them'. The others thought using the language of battle meant we were at war. She showed the subtlety of a dung beetle and the more one thinks about it the more individually culpable she becomes
"In the early 1990s, John Major’s government, with a small majority, was harried through Parliament during the passage of the Maastricht Treaty into British law. When the government was defeated over the Social Chapter, John Major brought the provision back before Parliament as a vote of confidence, which he duly won."
True but I wonder whether it was a Pyrrhic victory. The ability to make substantive law a VoNC meant that, once won, the Government forgot to make the substantive case for the changes being brought about by the Maastricht Treaty to the voters and get their consent.
In that failure, lies the failure in 2016 to win the referendum. The voters were taken for granted. It was assumed that winning the Parliamentary battle was all that was needed when what was really needed was to explain what Maastricht meant for Britain and for its citizens and why these were, on balance, worthwhile changes.
Similarly, now, the focus is all on getting the WA through Parliament rather than any discussion - let alone consent to - its provisions. If it does get through, that failure too will come back to bite us all.
> @kle4 said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric. > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169 > > That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path. > > In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
It's more than a slogan. May spent most of the negotiation trying to avoid, then trying to get out of, the backstop. No wonder everyone then viewed it as a failure when she gave up in November. The ERG's demands are entirely based on expectations that she set
> @solarflare said: > I'm neither a Labour nor Conservative vote but I find it impressive that IDS managed to describe Labour's local election result as "very similar" to that of the Conservatives.
While in general pretty much everything IDS says can safely be described as complete crap, on this occasion the fact that both parties ended up with around 28% of the vote does give it some validity.
> @NickPalmer said: > > I think we have a denoucement coming up on the cross-party talks. They will either succeed or fail shortly. > Probably true, especially if a denoucement turns out to be a cross between a dénouement and a denouncement ...
I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it?
Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
"Bailing out the Tories" upsets diehard lefties whatever their Brexit views. Passing the WA upsets the 80% of Labour voters for Remain. The downside is far bigger than the upside.
Indeed the possibility of this is why the 50/1 on Ladbrokes for Lab under 10% at the Euros is a value bet.
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > > > > > Exactly. > > > > > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > > > > > Lab 30% > > > > Con 20% > > > > Farage 20% > > > > CH/LIB 20% > > > > OTHERS 10% > > > > > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties. > > > > > > > > Exactly. > > > > > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered: > > > > > > > > Lab 30% > > > > Con 20% > > > > Farage 20% > > > > CH/LIB 20% > > > > OTHERS 10% > > > > > > > > PM Corbyn. > > > > > > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea. > > > > > > GE with Brexit not delivered > > > > > > Farage 30% > > > Lab 23% > > > Con 13% > > > LD 10% > > > CH 5% > > > > > > PM Farage > > > > I think PM Farage is possible but those numbers for the next election are not. Tories and Labour both have a higher floor in a GE, maybe 26/18. If the polls were indicating anything close to your outcome ahead of a GE, a leadership change for either main party would drag them back up quite quickly. > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election Leavers will be so furious normal politics will no longer apply and even leadership changes may not be enough to stop them voting Brexit Party and for Farage to become PM to ensure Brexit is finally delivered and their Leave win in 2016 respected
Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal.
Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible.
> @Jonathan said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though. > > I think he could whip it, the upside is to be seen to be statesmanlike and more importantly to start to move things on from Brexit onto more fertile ground for Labour.
He will most certainly whip, but how many Labour MPs would obey the whip? I would estimate less than 100.
I must say I do find the comments out there about a deal between Corbyn and May to be a 'stitch up' or 'betrayal' to be seriously weird. It doesn't only come from die hard remainers or no deal leavers either, or people's vote fanatics, and yet whatever the merits, or not, of a CU deal between the two, plenty of people seem to think the main political parties striking a compromise is somehow a grubby thing in itself, as if how dare a divided parliament seek to come up with a compromise for a divided nation.
I don't expect them to manage it, but I genuinely find the antipathy for any compromise, let alone this specific potential one, to be rather odd.
> @Sean_F said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors. > > > > > > > > > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively. > > > > > > > > Hopeful, no? > > > > > > It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority. > > > > Have we any idea of the demographics of the Alliance/Green vote? Just wondering whether what's hoped for is beginning to happen; younger people discarding the battle-lines of the past. > > Younger, very middle class, religiously unaffiliated, but picking up some support outside that group.
Notable perhaps that Alliance did reasonably well in Coleraine where one of the Ulster Uni campuses is situated.
> @Sandpit said: > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though. > > Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it? > > Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
Desperation. They do not want a referendum. May and those in the Cabinet do not want no deal even if many of their MPs do. So they seek a way out which is not great, and is risky, but better than no deal or remain.
If you accept no deal really is that bad, and May and colleagues believe so, then the risk of talking to Corbyn and at least trying to make a deal would be, to use an overused phrase, in the national interest, even if it does not work.
I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
> @kle4 said: > I must say I do find the comments out there about a deal between Corbyn and May to be a 'stitch up' or 'betrayal' to be seriously weird. It doesn't only come from die hard remainers or no deal leavers either, or people's vote fanatics, and yet whatever the merits, or not, of a CU deal between the two, plenty of people seem to think the main political parties striking a compromise is somehow a grubby thing in itself, as if how dare a divided parliament seek to come up with a compromise for a divided nation. > > I don't expect them to manage it, but I genuinely find the antipathy for any compromise, let alone this specific potential one, to be rather odd.
I agree, though now that positions are so entrenched it will of course punish them both. Two years ago it would have been sensible and welcomed. Trouble now is that both sides see a way through to their preferred outcome.
> @Cyclefree said: > "In the early 1990s, John Major’s government, with a small majority, was harried through Parliament during the passage of the Maastricht Treaty into British law. When the government was defeated over the Social Chapter, John Major brought the provision back before Parliament as a vote of confidence, which he duly won." > > True but I wonder whether it was a Pyrrhic victory. The ability to make substantive law a VoNC meant that, once won, the Government forgot to make the substantive case for the changes being brought about by the Maastricht Treaty to the voters and get their consent. > > In that failure, lies the failure in 2016 to win the referendum. The voters were taken for granted. It was assumed that winning the Parliamentary battle was all that was needed when what was really needed was to explain what Maastricht meant for Britain and for its citizens and why these were, on balance, worthwhile changes. > > Similarly, now, the focus is all on getting the WA through Parliament rather than any discussion - let alone consent to - its provisions. If it does get through, that failure too will come back to bite us all.
Without exaggeration I wonder whether one in a thousand people had or have the slightest idea what Maastricht was all about.
> @Stereotomy said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169 > > > > That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path. > > > > In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it. > > It's more than a slogan. May spent most of the negotiation trying to avoid, then trying to get out of, the backstop. No wonder everyone then viewed it as a failure when she gave up in November. The ERG's demands are entirely based on expectations that she set
That's just taking away peoples' responsibility for their own actions by still implying everyone was duped. May has spent most of the last year pushing other lines, if people are still hung up on those past expectations that's on them no matter the failures of May.
> Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal.
Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible.
Would they not simply promise a one-year Parliament, with the sole objective of implementing no-deal Brexit, followed by another election once we’ve actually left?
Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced.
> @Stereotomy said: > It's more than a slogan. May spent most of the negotiation trying to avoid, then trying to get out of, the backstop. No wonder everyone then viewed it as a failure when she gave up in November. The ERG's demands are entirely based on expectations that she set
That's not exactly right - she spent the first half of the negotiation trying to avoid committing to either of the specific ways she could avoid a hard border, culminating in her coming up with the backstop. Then she spent the second half of the negotiation trying to avoid the backstop.
> @Roger said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169 > > > > That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path. > > > > In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it. > > It's not a few meaningless slogans but the sentiment behind them. She chose to make the EU the enemy and created a 'them and us' The vast swathes of the country who didn't see the EU like that chose 'them'. The others thought using the language of battle meant we were at war. She showed the subtlety of a dung beetle and the more one thinks about it the more individually culpable she becomes
The language she used is one of her failings in this mess. The other is her failure to even attempt to lead and persuade, whether in the country or her party. Choosing instead to try and thread the narrowest of needles without any realistic plan B. Having said that there is still some part of me that admires her stubbornness, determination and hard work that imo have produced an acceptable withdrawal agreement. If she had been Brexit secretary to someone else's PM it would have been much better.
> @Sandpit said: > > > Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal. > > > > Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible. > > Would they not simply promise a one-year Parliament, with the sole objective of implementing no-deal Brexit, followed by another election once we’ve actually left? > > Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced.
The main article is about how the government has lost control of the electoral cycle. To achieve a one year parliament they might need 67% of the seats!
> @Barnesian said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies? > > > > > > > > CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that. > > > > In London CHUK are pretty sure to get one seat, but unlikely to get a second, while both Greens and LD may be borderline for one. Any of the three is a reasonable vote though. > > > > Dehondt not as good as other systems of PR in my view. > > Agree D'Hondt is a fairly crap system but it's what we've got. > > In London, on latest YG figures the seats are allocated as follows: > > 1 Lab > 2 Brexit > 3 Lab > 4 CHUK > 5 Con > 6. Brexit > 7 Green > 8 Deadheat Lab/LD > > You are right CHUK are almost certain to get one seat and no more. Same for Green. An LD vote is the one that is most effective. > > If CHUK, LD and Green stood as one party - Remain - the seat allocation would be as follows: > > 1 Remain > 2 Lab > 3 Brexit > 4 Remain > 5 Con > 6 Lab > 7 Brexit > 8 Remain
As you say, the LibDem vote is potentially more effective as the Greens look safe on one and won't get two. The LibDem London candidate is strong; for CUK it depends on what you think of the ex journalist
The other thing Corbyn might be gaming out is: 1) Agree something 2) Various Tory leadership contenders furiously denounce the something and vow not to implement it 3) Pull out of the something, with the (correct) justification that whoever gets TMay's job after TMay is obviously going to renege.
Obviously it would be more efficient just to not to agree the something in the first place, since whoever gets TMay's job after TMay is obviously going to renege, but maybe there's a Labour brexiter left somewhere who would be impressed that he was making the effort.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Sandpit said: > > > > > Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal. > > > > > > > > Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible. > > > > Would they not simply promise a one-year Parliament, with the sole objective of implementing no-deal Brexit, followed by another election once we’ve actually left? > > > > Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced. > > The main article is about how the government has lost control of the electoral cycle. To achieve a one year parliament they might need 67% of the seats!
Farage is a campaigner, and a leader in an inspirational sense but not in a managerial one. Over his career he has fallen out with everyone he had worked with from the founder of ukip onwards. Hence the Brexit party is a company not a political party and a GE a hugely bigger challenge than a referendum or the coming quasi-one. A farage government would surely be a rapid disaster
> @DavidL said: > > @Sandpit said: > > I note noone (On Twitter) is actually trying to persuade the other side in this debate now. > > > > Sadly so. For all this talk of customs unions in the last couple of weeks, how many people are actually weighing up the positives and negatives of that arrangement? > > > > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669 > > I agree with his analysis but I frankly no longer care. If a CU is what it takes to achieve Brexit and get out of this mess I would pay that price. At the moment our MPs are giving us the worst of all possible worlds, paying the price of being in but getting none of the benefits whilst living in a world of uncertainty and confusion. It is remarkable that is not doing even more damage than it is.
You agree with GH's findings that in every way this manifestation of Brexit is going to be extremely damaging to the UK yet you want to go ahead with it anyway.
Either I've misunderstood your post or you've identified Brexit as a religeon and it's all a question of faith.
> @Sandpit said: > > > Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal. > > > > Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible. > > Would they not simply promise a one-year Parliament, with the sole objective of implementing no-deal Brexit, followed by another election once we’ve actually left? > > Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced.
More widely when they are on question time for example, and there is a question on the NHS, and Labour point out Farage wants/wanted to privatise the NHS, they will need to respond with a policy. That policy can then be challenged, some will like it, others wont. It will be hard to maintain discipline, different candidates will just say what they want on each issue. Little of this will happen in the Euros where Farage and Brexit will dominate the conversation, but it is a big problem for them in a GE.
I still think they can do well and better than expected, but 30% Brexit-13% Tory is way too big a gap.
> @malcolmg said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > [Ruth Davidson] changes her position more often than I change my pants, what a fake. > > > > Once every couple of months??? > > More than daily, she is a lying toerag of a donkey
Compromising means changing positions. We have had coalition for most of the last decade and probably will for most of the next decade. The electorate and political class needs to grow up and welcome compromise not accuse any one who does so of being fake or a liar.
> @Sandpit said: > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though. > > Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it? > > Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
What good is splitting the Tories if Labour doesn't gain the power to independently govern at the end of it?
What is the pathway to a Labour majority in 2022 or sooner?
> @thecommissioner said: > > @Sandpit said: > > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though. > > > > Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it? > > > > Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him? > > What good is splitting the Tories if Labour doesn't gain the power to independently govern at the end of it? > > What is the pathway to a Labour majority in 2022? >
> @Roger said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @Sandpit said: > > > I note noone (On Twitter) is actually trying to persuade the other side in this debate now. > > > > > > Sadly so. For all this talk of customs unions in the last couple of weeks, how many people are actually weighing up the positives and negatives of that arrangement? > > > > > > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669 > > > > I agree with his analysis but I frankly no longer care. If a CU is what it takes to achieve Brexit and get out of this mess I would pay that price. At the moment our MPs are giving us the worst of all possible worlds, paying the price of being in but getting none of the benefits whilst living in a world of uncertainty and confusion. It is remarkable that is not doing even more damage than it is. > > You agree with GH's findings that in every way this manifestation of Brexit is going to be extremely damaging to the UK yet you want to go ahead with it anyway. > > Either I've misunderstood your post or you've identified Brexit as a religeon and it's all a question of faith.
Leaving in any fashion is dumb and damaging; surely the thinking here is merely damage limitation for exporters and reducing the barriers to re-entry?
> @thecommissioner said: > > @Sandpit said: > > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though. > > > > Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it? > > > > Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him? > > What good is splitting the Tories if Labour doesn't gain the power to independently govern at the end of it? > > What is the pathway to a Labour majority in 2022 or sooner? >
More widely when they are on question time for example, and there is a question on the NHS, and Labour point out Farage wants/wanted to privatise the NHS, they will need to respond with a policy. That policy can then be challenged, some will like it, others wont. It will be hard to maintain discipline, different candidates will just say what they want on each issue. Little of this will happen in the Euros where Farage and Brexit will dominate the conversation, but it is a big problem for them in a GE.
This is classic 22nd June 2016 thinking. Everything has changed now and nobody give a fuck about policies or the lack of them. It's a culture war now. War to the knife.
What do you care what the English media says or doesn’t say? it’s Scots you need to convince.
You obviously don't listen to news or media, we have to beg Westminster first and also the English media run the media in Scotland. Obviously you are one of these half witted ones that conflate England with UK and know zilch about Scotland.
> @rottenborough said: > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though. > > Jezza wont do a deal. > > This is all a complete waste of time.
Agreed. One lesson Corbyn might take from Thursday is that the Remain vote is now fragmented more than the Brexit vote. The Lib Dems are sback in town, the Greens won a surprising amount of votes and there is also CHUK. Under a FPTP system, that changes his calculation significantly in his remain-voting seats. He may now think it is worth taking the risk of becoming more leave, keep his Brexit-leaning voters on board (who would have only one alternative, the Brexit party) and still win most seats under FPTP as the Remain bloc is so fragmented.
Comments
Congrats to Nick P on his election
Congrats also to Cyclefree Jr. Does he actually read PB?
> > @houndtang said:
> > What is with all the arrows in the block quotes? The threads are becoming unreadable.
>
> Seems to be a vanilla upgrade. Until it's fixed we need people to relearn the old-school art of trimming and only quote the sentence or two they're responding to.
You can avoid the arrows by using the actual Vanilla site:
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7572/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-new-rules-britain-s-changing-constitution#latest
(which I haven't done for this message!!!)
> > @kle4 said:
> > Could Jeremy Corbyn save the Conservative Party by agreeing a deal? On the basis we are often our own worst enemy it would be fitting.
>
> Looking at Thursday's council election results, Labour retained 96% of their seat total.
>
> Losses in metropolitan areas like Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds were minimal - just the odd seat here and there. 'Labour leave' areas like Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Stockton, Ashfield, Bolsover etc were notably less supportive.
>
> There are a bloc of 20-30 Labour MPs all sitting in Leave constituencies who need a deal or they will be at risk. Corbyn can afford to shed huge amounts of votes in certain parts of the big cities and still retain the seats.
>
> Furthermore, Labour remain 100 or so short of a majority (after defections/deselections). Where are they getting these extra seats from to form a government?
>
> If he doesn't deal, how does he find a way to win? How does he find a way to spread the Labour vote more effectively rather than piling up 80% of the vote in zone 1-3 London? Most seats voted Leave.
>
> If Labour had supported May's deal, would they have been in power by now?
His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1124940468809293825
>
>
>
> An unedifying proxy battle. I doubt most defending him care if he leaked or not (particularly since they use arguments involving criminal standards of proof) but now May and co also dont care since they'll try to point to his general incompetence. Problem is he wasn't sacked for being crap at his job, and she never cared he was crap before.
She probably cared but felt fairly powerless to act without clear cause. Hasnt she already lost the most ministers and it is hard to find replacements who have not already resigned/been sacked/dont have confidence in her or sometimes a mix of all three......
Wow, good effort Sir, well done. #Tories4NickPalmer
However, I would say it is not the FTPA per se but the combination of the following 2 things that is trapping us in this Brexit hellhole.
1. The decision of the Supreme Court to side with Gina Miller, resulting in Parliament having the power, via the Meaningful Vote, to block the Withdrawal Agreement which seeks to give legal effect to the result of the 2016 EU Referendum, i.e. take us out of the European Union.
2. The fact that the governing Conservative Party, for reasons well documented, find the prospect of Theresa May leading them into another General Election to be intolerable, and yet, for reasons also well documented, cannot bring themselves to replace her with anybody else.
(1) Sets up the impasse. (2) Prevents it being broken.
> In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors.
Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
> That's a great photo at the top of the thread. Looks almost like an 18th century painting with all the little details - Whittingdale slouching, the woman on the right wagging her finger, Bercow and the Tory MP on the left clutching their brows....
It is. And Whittingdale looks like he could lose a few.
> That's a great photo at the top of the thread. Looks almost like an 18th century painting with all the little details - Whittingdale slouching, the woman on the right wagging her finger, Bercow and the Tory MP on the left clutching their brows....
There's been a quite a few really good photos coming out of the Commons recently for some reason.
>
> His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
Exactly.
GE with Brexit not delivered:
Lab 30%
Con 20%
Farage 20%
CH/LIB 20%
OTHERS 10%
PM Corbyn.
EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169?s=21
Farage challenges Corbyn to a Brexit Debate
> Some anecdata:
>
> Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way.
>
> In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
Football wise - I took the precaution of making my annual Tottenham choke bet when we were 9-1 to finish outside the top 4. I also bet on Bournemouth to win yesterday. Those winnings have been reinvested in bets on Everton winning or drawing next Sunday. I will either be just over £1,300 or £1,400 richer depending on which of those it is.
Our side need to make it clear that Tory intransigence is to blame, so that we can carry on balancing on the fence until some form of votes comes back to the Commons.
> > @Foxy said:
> > Some anecdata:
> >
> > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way.
> >
> > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
>
> I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
>
> My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors.
>
> Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
Hopeful, no?
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > Some anecdata:
> > >
> > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way.
> > >
> > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
> >
> > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
> >
> > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
>
> Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
Either all of the anti-Brexit parties have to pull votes off Labour, or one of them has to finish the other two off.
> Good article from Alastair!
>
> Congrats to Nick P on his election
>
> Congrats also to Cyclefree Jr. Does he actually read PB?
No. Like all my family, he thinks it some strange perversion of mine, though he did describe my recent articles as me "machine gun firing articles into the internet" which I rather liked.
Of course, when he wants help with his politics/economics studies his attitude is a little different and he was immensely proud when my name came up in the context of banking fraud ......
He is revising banking which he told me yesterday was very boring. I told him that banking was meant to be boring, had been far too exciting recently for its own good, let alone ours, and that he really should not write in his exam that all bankers were fuckwits, even if I had assured him on numerous occasions that this was indeed the case.
He has a summer of festivals and travel planned which he is looking forward to hugely.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
>
> Exactly.
>
> GE with Brexit not delivered:
>
> Lab 30%
> Con 20%
> Farage 20%
> CH/LIB 20%
> OTHERS 10%
>
> PM Corbyn.
>
> EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
How the Brexit/Tory vote would split by seat would be interesting to understand. I would guess the wealthy/young seats become Tory/LD marginals, the wealthy/old seats stay Tory, the averagy seats become multi way marginals, with the poorer Tory seats becoming Labour/Brexit marginals.
Labour getting an overall majority from this strategy feels a long shot but becoming the largest party and increasing its number of MPs feels probable from here if no Brexit is delivered.
Of course a "normal" Labour leader could just clean up on 40%.....
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > Some anecdata:
> > >
> > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way.
> > >
> > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
> >
> > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
> >
> > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
>
> Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
> May and her dwindling band of acolytes are spinning this 'deal is close' line so that they can blame Labour when it doesn't happen and the ecumenical talks collapse.
>
> Our side need to make it clear that Tory intransigence is to blame, so that we can carry on balancing on the fence until some form of votes comes back to the Commons.
While I do not doubt that your scenario is indeed the Tory plan, if the Tories have made an offer on CU then it can hardly be purely Tory instransigence to blame, since they will have made an offer which is closer to the Labour position.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors.
> >
> > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
>
> Hopeful, no?
It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
>
> Exactly.
>
> GE with Brexit not delivered:
>
> Lab 30%
> Con 20%
> Farage 20%
> CH/LIB 20%
> OTHERS 10%
>
> PM Corbyn.
>
> EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> @kinabalu said:
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
>
> Exactly.
>
> GE with Brexit not delivered:
>
> Lab 30%
> Con 20%
> Farage 20%
> CH/LIB 20%
> OTHERS 10%
>
> PM Corbyn.
>
> EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
GE with Brexit not delivered
Farage 30%
Lab 23%
Con 13%
LD 10%
CH 5%
PM Farage
> May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric.
>
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169
That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path.
In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > >
> > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> >
> > Exactly.
> >
> > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> >
> > Lab 30%
> > Con 20%
> > Farage 20%
> > CH/LIB 20%
> > OTHERS 10%
> >
> > PM Corbyn.
> >
> > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
>
> How the Brexit/Tory vote would split by seat would be interesting to understand. I would guess the wealthy/young seats become Tory/LD marginals, the wealthy/old seats stay Tory, the averagy seats become multi way marginals, with the poorer Tory seats becoming Labour/Brexit marginals.
>
> Labour getting an overall majority from this strategy feels a long shot but becoming the largest party and increasing its number of MPs feels probable from here if no Brexit is delivered.
>
> Of course a "normal" Labour leader could just clean up on 40%.....
I can remember a lot of arguments from 2013/15 that 33% would deliver a Labour majority.
Sure, but under Dehondt the question is not numbers of votes, but also numbers of seats. A LD gain in the West Midlands is reasonably likely. In the smaller and more Brexity East Midlands Greens were fractionally ahead of LDs last time, but both well below the seat threshold. I think the LDs are now the better prospect after the Locals.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > >
> > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> >
> > Exactly.
> >
> > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> >
> > Lab 30%
> > Con 20%
> > Farage 20%
> > CH/LIB 20%
> > OTHERS 10%
> >
> > PM Corbyn.
> >
> > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
>
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > >
> > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> >
> > Exactly.
> >
> > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> >
> > Lab 30%
> > Con 20%
> > Farage 20%
> > CH/LIB 20%
> > OTHERS 10%
> >
> > PM Corbyn.
> >
> > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
>
> GE with Brexit not delivered
>
> Farage 30%
> Lab 23%
> Con 13%
> LD 10%
> CH 5%
>
> PM Farage
I think PM Farage is possible but those numbers for the next election are not. Tories and Labour both have a higher floor in a GE, maybe 26/18. If the polls were indicating anything close to your outcome ahead of a GE, a leadership change for either main party would drag them back up quite quickly.
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > Some anecdata:
> > > >
> > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way.
> > > >
> > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
> > >
> > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
> > >
> > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
> >
> > Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
>
> I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that.
> GE with Brexit not delivered
>
> Farage 30%
> Lab 23%
> Con 13%
> LD 10%
> CH 5%
>
> PM Farage
That depends on some quite heroic assumptions about which 19% of the voters have been raptured
Dehondt not as good as other systems of PR in my view.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors.
> > >
> > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
> >
> > Hopeful, no?
>
> It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority.
Have we any idea of the demographics of the Alliance/Green vote? Just wondering whether what's hoped for is beginning to happen; younger people discarding the battle-lines of the past.
>
> I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
____________________________________________________________________
On the latest YouGov poll for the Euros for the London Region, the Greens are on 11% and the LibDems are on 9%.
With eight MEP seats for London under D'Hondt, the Greens get the 7th seat but the 8th seat is a toss-up between Labour 27%/3 and LD 9%.
So my advice would be to vote LibDem and deny Labour its 3rd seat as the Greens are likely to get their one seat anyway unaided by you.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > >
> > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> > >
> > > Exactly.
> > >
> > > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> > >
> > > Lab 30%
> > > Con 20%
> > > Farage 20%
> > > CH/LIB 20%
> > > OTHERS 10%
> > >
> > > PM Corbyn.
> > >
> > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> >
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > >
> > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> > >
> > > Exactly.
> > >
> > > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> > >
> > > Lab 30%
> > > Con 20%
> > > Farage 20%
> > > CH/LIB 20%
> > > OTHERS 10%
> > >
> > > PM Corbyn.
> > >
> > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> >
> > GE with Brexit not delivered
> >
> > Farage 30%
> > Lab 23%
> > Con 13%
> > LD 10%
> > CH 5%
> >
> > PM Farage
>
> I think PM Farage is possible but those numbers for the next election are not. Tories and Labour both have a higher floor in a GE, maybe 26/18. If the polls were indicating anything close to your outcome ahead of a GE, a leadership change for either main party would drag them back up quite quickly.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election Leavers will be so furious normal politics will no longer apply and even leadership changes may not be enough to stop them voting Brexit Party and for Farage to become PM to ensure Brexit is finally delivered and their Leave win in 2016 respected
Thanks a bunch to Cameron and Clegg who have sailed off to pastures new leaving their successors entangled with their grotesque FTPA innovation.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > Some anecdata:
> > > > >
> > > > > Out for dinner with 9 colleagues last night, all quite senior. The Euro vote came up over dessert, and not raised by my good self. Much hostility to Corbyn, but strong support for the LDs. I am reconsidering my own inclination to vote Green after Fridays result, as it does look like Remainers will coalesce around the LDs. Even a self described Thatcherite was going that way.
> > > > >
> > > > > In other news, it is up to Brendan Rogers to make the last day of the PL interesting. I think the odds on Man City beating Leicester are too short at 1.19, I reckon this is value as a lay and Leicester may well get some points. We did draw with Liverpool at Anfield, thrashed Arsenal last week and are one of the few teams to beat Man City this season, when we won 2:1 on Boxing Day.
> > > >
> > > > I was going to vote Green in the Euros. Will now be voting LibDem.
> > > >
> > > > My guess is that CHUK will do best in London and the SE.
> > >
> > > Voting Green would both send a message on Brexit and on the environment. Perhaps you might reconsider?
> >
> > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
>
> CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that.
I hope they do ok for that very reason. Even if we accept that argument that some or all of them would have been deselected, and I doubt all were, and even if we accept vanity or whatever was partly behind the choice of a new party rather than joining another, the choice they made was not easy and I respect that.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > >
> > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> > >
> > > Exactly.
> > >
> > > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> > >
> > > Lab 30%
> > > Con 20%
> > > Farage 20%
> > > CH/LIB 20%
> > > OTHERS 10%
> > >
> > > PM Corbyn.
> > >
> > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> >
> > How the Brexit/Tory vote would split by seat would be interesting to understand. I would guess the wealthy/young seats become Tory/LD marginals, the wealthy/old seats stay Tory, the averagy seats become multi way marginals, with the poorer Tory seats becoming Labour/Brexit marginals.
> >
> > Labour getting an overall majority from this strategy feels a long shot but becoming the largest party and increasing its number of MPs feels probable from here if no Brexit is delivered.
> >
> > Of course a "normal" Labour leader could just clean up on 40%.....
>
> I can remember a lot of arguments from 2013/15 that 33% would deliver a Labour majority.
33% could deliver a Brexit Party majority if we are still in the EU at the next general election and Remain voters split between the Tories, Labour and LDs
> Ruth Davidson comes out in favour of a Deal plus Customs Union on Mars as a compromise between the extremes of reversing Brexit or No Deal
>
> Would that involve signing up to FOM with Mars?
Marr, sorry
> @SouthamObserver @SandyRentool
>
>
> Sure, but under Dehondt the question is not numbers of votes, but also numbers of seats. A LD gain in the West Midlands is reasonably likely. In the smaller and more Brexity East Midlands Greens were fractionally ahead of LDs last time, but both well below the seat threshold. I think the LDs are now the better prospect after the Locals.
Yep, I agree with that.
> > @isam said:
> > Ruth Davidson comes out in favour of a Deal plus Customs Union on Mars as a compromise between the extremes of reversing Brexit or No Deal
> >
> > Would that involve signing up to FOM with Mars?
>
> Marr, sorry
That's a shame, as if going for a Customs Union we should probably aim big.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors.
> > > >
> > > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
> > >
> > > Hopeful, no?
> >
> > It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority.
>
> Have we any idea of the demographics of the Alliance/Green vote? Just wondering whether what's hoped for is beginning to happen; younger people discarding the battle-lines of the past.
Younger, very middle class, religiously unaffiliated, but picking up some support outside that group.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > GE with Brexit not delivered
> >
> > Farage 30%
> > Lab 23%
> > Con 13%
> > LD 10%
> > CH 5%
> >
> > PM Farage
>
> That depends on some quite heroic assumptions about which 19% of the voters have been raptured
The remainder would split between the Greens, SNP, UKIP, Plaid, the DUP etc
I take your logic, but I think that was a subgroup analysis rather than a stand alone poll, so wide MOE.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> On the latest YouGov poll for the Euros for the London Region, the Greens are on 11% and the LibDems are on 9%.
>
> With eight MEP seats for London under D'Hondt, the Greens get the 7th seat but the 8th seat is a toss-up between Labour 27%/3 and LD 9%.
>
> So my advice would be to vote LibDem and deny Labour its 3rd seat as the Greens are likely to get their one seat anyway unaided by you.
Thank you.
> I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
There's potentially an upside to watching TMay back it then the rest of the Tories kill it. It doesn't feel very big compared to the downside, though.
Also if it goes through he gets Brexit, which I guess is an upside for him.
> I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
I think he could whip it, the upside is to be seen to be statesmanlike and more importantly to start to move things on from Brexit onto more fertile ground for Labour.
I despair of and despise the lot of them, am now expecting Farage and his Brexit Party to get closer to 40% than 30% in the EU elections - followed by a MP for Peterborough.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
>
>
>
> CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that.
>
> In London CHUK are pretty sure to get one seat, but unlikely to get a second, while both Greens and LD may be borderline for one. Any of the three is a reasonable vote though.
>
> Dehondt not as good as other systems of PR in my view.
Agree D'Hondt is a fairly crap system but it's what we've got.
In London, on latest YG figures the seats are allocated as follows:
1 Lab
2 Brexit
3 Lab
4 CHUK
5 Con
6. Brexit
7 Green
8 Deadheat Lab/LD
You are right CHUK are almost certain to get one seat and no more. Same for Green. An LD vote is the one that is most effective.
If CHUK, LD and Green stood as one party - Remain - the seat allocation would be as follows:
1 Remain
2 Lab
3 Brexit
4 Remain
5 Con
6 Lab
7 Brexit
8 Remain
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169
>
> That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path.
>
> In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
It's not a few meaningless slogans but the sentiment behind them. She chose to make the EU the enemy and created a 'them and us' The vast swathes of the country who didn't see the EU like that chose 'them'. The others thought using the language of battle meant we were at war. She showed the subtlety of a dung beetle and the more one thinks about it the more individually culpable she becomes
True but I wonder whether it was a Pyrrhic victory. The ability to make substantive law a VoNC meant that, once won, the Government forgot to make the substantive case for the changes being brought about by the Maastricht Treaty to the voters and get their consent.
In that failure, lies the failure in 2016 to win the referendum. The voters were taken for granted. It was assumed that winning the Parliamentary battle was all that was needed when what was really needed was to explain what Maastricht meant for Britain and for its citizens and why these were, on balance, worthwhile changes.
Similarly, now, the focus is all on getting the WA through Parliament rather than any discussion - let alone consent to - its provisions. If it does get through, that failure too will come back to bite us all.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169
>
> That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path.
>
> In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
It's more than a slogan. May spent most of the negotiation trying to avoid, then trying to get out of, the backstop. No wonder everyone then viewed it as a failure when she gave up in November. The ERG's demands are entirely based on expectations that she set
> I'm neither a Labour nor Conservative vote but I find it impressive that IDS managed to describe Labour's local election result as "very similar" to that of the Conservatives.
While in general pretty much everything IDS says can safely be described as complete crap, on this occasion the fact that both parties ended up with around 28% of the vote does give it some validity.
>
> I think we have a denoucement coming up on the cross-party talks. They will either succeed or fail shortly.
>
Probably true, especially if a denoucement turns out to be a cross between a dénouement and a denouncement ...
Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
Indeed the possibility of this is why the 50/1 on Ladbrokes for Lab under 10% at the Euros is a value bet.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > >
> > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> > > >
> > > > Exactly.
> > > >
> > > > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> > > >
> > > > Lab 30%
> > > > Con 20%
> > > > Farage 20%
> > > > CH/LIB 20%
> > > > OTHERS 10%
> > > >
> > > > PM Corbyn.
> > > >
> > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> > >
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > >
> > > > > His plan seems to be not to find extra Labour votes, but to split the Tory votes and hope he can pick up more seats polling high twenties.
> > > >
> > > > Exactly.
> > > >
> > > > GE with Brexit not delivered:
> > > >
> > > > Lab 30%
> > > > Con 20%
> > > > Farage 20%
> > > > CH/LIB 20%
> > > > OTHERS 10%
> > > >
> > > > PM Corbyn.
> > > >
> > > > EDIT: Numbers are nonsense - just to illustrate the idea.
> > >
> > > GE with Brexit not delivered
> > >
> > > Farage 30%
> > > Lab 23%
> > > Con 13%
> > > LD 10%
> > > CH 5%
> > >
> > > PM Farage
> >
> > I think PM Farage is possible but those numbers for the next election are not. Tories and Labour both have a higher floor in a GE, maybe 26/18. If the polls were indicating anything close to your outcome ahead of a GE, a leadership change for either main party would drag them back up quite quickly.
>
> If we are still in the EU by the next general election Leavers will be so furious normal politics will no longer apply and even leadership changes may not be enough to stop them voting Brexit Party and for Farage to become PM to ensure Brexit is finally delivered and their Leave win in 2016 respected
Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal.
Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
>
> I think he could whip it, the upside is to be seen to be statesmanlike and more importantly to start to move things on from Brexit onto more fertile ground for Labour.
He will most certainly whip, but how many Labour MPs would obey the whip? I would estimate less than 100.
> @Barnesian
>
> I take your logic, but I think that was a subgroup analysis rather than a stand alone poll, so wide MOE.
Agreed. But it's the best we've got at the moment.
I don't expect them to manage it, but I genuinely find the antipathy for any compromise, let alone this specific potential one, to be rather odd.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > > > In news which is seems irrelevant, but which may have an effect on the way things develop, the final results of the N. Irish locals show that 'Assorted Unionists' have lost 29 seats, seats which seem to have been taken by pro-'normal politics' councillors.
> > > > >
> > > > > Both the Unionist and Nationalist vote shares have fallen quite sharply over two rounds of local elections, from 47% to 42%, and 40% to 36% respectively.
> > > >
> > > > Hopeful, no?
> > >
> > > It could be. Unionists need to realise that they're losing votes rapidly to their left. Nationalists need to realise that changing demographics are not delivering a Nationalist majority.
> >
> > Have we any idea of the demographics of the Alliance/Green vote? Just wondering whether what's hoped for is beginning to happen; younger people discarding the battle-lines of the past.
>
> Younger, very middle class, religiously unaffiliated, but picking up some support outside that group.
Notable perhaps that Alliance did reasonably well in Coleraine where one of the Ulster Uni campuses is situated.
> I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
>
> Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it?
>
> Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
Desperation. They do not want a referendum. May and those in the Cabinet do not want no deal even if many of their MPs do. So they seek a way out which is not great, and is risky, but better than no deal or remain.
If you accept no deal really is that bad, and May and colleagues believe so, then the risk of talking to Corbyn and at least trying to make a deal would be, to use an overused phrase, in the national interest, even if it does not work.
This is all a complete waste of time.
> I must say I do find the comments out there about a deal between Corbyn and May to be a 'stitch up' or 'betrayal' to be seriously weird. It doesn't only come from die hard remainers or no deal leavers either, or people's vote fanatics, and yet whatever the merits, or not, of a CU deal between the two, plenty of people seem to think the main political parties striking a compromise is somehow a grubby thing in itself, as if how dare a divided parliament seek to come up with a compromise for a divided nation.
>
> I don't expect them to manage it, but I genuinely find the antipathy for any compromise, let alone this specific potential one, to be rather odd.
I agree, though now that positions are so entrenched it will of course punish them both. Two years ago it would have been sensible and welcomed. Trouble now is that both sides see a way through to their preferred outcome.
> "In the early 1990s, John Major’s government, with a small majority, was harried through Parliament during the passage of the Maastricht Treaty into British law. When the government was defeated over the Social Chapter, John Major brought the provision back before Parliament as a vote of confidence, which he duly won."
>
> True but I wonder whether it was a Pyrrhic victory. The ability to make substantive law a VoNC meant that, once won, the Government forgot to make the substantive case for the changes being brought about by the Maastricht Treaty to the voters and get their consent.
>
> In that failure, lies the failure in 2016 to win the referendum. The voters were taken for granted. It was assumed that winning the Parliamentary battle was all that was needed when what was really needed was to explain what Maastricht meant for Britain and for its citizens and why these were, on balance, worthwhile changes.
>
> Similarly, now, the focus is all on getting the WA through Parliament rather than any discussion - let alone consent to - its provisions. If it does get through, that failure too will come back to bite us all.
Without exaggeration I wonder whether one in a thousand people had or have the slightest idea what Maastricht was all about.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169
> >
> > That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path.
> >
> > In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
>
> It's more than a slogan. May spent most of the negotiation trying to avoid, then trying to get out of, the backstop. No wonder everyone then viewed it as a failure when she gave up in November. The ERG's demands are entirely based on expectations that she set
That's just taking away peoples' responsibility for their own actions by still implying everyone was duped. May has spent most of the last year pushing other lines, if people are still hung up on those past expectations that's on them no matter the failures of May.
Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced.
> It's more than a slogan. May spent most of the negotiation trying to avoid, then trying to get out of, the backstop. No wonder everyone then viewed it as a failure when she gave up in November. The ERG's demands are entirely based on expectations that she set
That's not exactly right - she spent the first half of the negotiation trying to avoid committing to either of the specific ways she could avoid a hard border, culminating in her coming up with the backstop. Then she spent the second half of the negotiation trying to avoid the backstop.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > May (and Nick Timothy) created the Brexit Party with her irresponsible rhetoric.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124704591684231169
> >
> > That's a lot of cobbler. A couple of meaningless slogans created this situation, that's the kind of bullcrap explanation people cling to rather than the more likely answer, that a lot of people really want to leave the EU and they do not care how, they have not been duped by a political slogan into going down this path.
> >
> > In other words it is a way of blaming a political opponent rather than the people, the voters (although of course at present BP have not had any voters, but we can pretty sure they will), for the choices the people are, or are about to, make. It's basically a way of saying the people are really dumb without just coming out and saying it.
>
> It's not a few meaningless slogans but the sentiment behind them. She chose to make the EU the enemy and created a 'them and us' The vast swathes of the country who didn't see the EU like that chose 'them'. The others thought using the language of battle meant we were at war. She showed the subtlety of a dung beetle and the more one thinks about it the more individually culpable she becomes
The language she used is one of her failings in this mess. The other is her failure to even attempt to lead and persuade, whether in the country or her party. Choosing instead to try and thread the narrowest of needles without any realistic plan B. Having said that there is still some part of me that admires her stubbornness, determination and hard work that imo have produced an acceptable withdrawal agreement. If she had been Brexit secretary to someone else's PM it would have been much better.
> >
> Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal.
>
>
>
> Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible.
>
> Would they not simply promise a one-year Parliament, with the sole objective of implementing no-deal Brexit, followed by another election once we’ve actually left?
>
> Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced.
The main article is about how the government has lost control of the electoral cycle. To achieve a one year parliament they might need 67% of the seats!
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > > I am torn between Green and Lib Dem. There is no Lib Dem MEP for my bit of London, surprisingly so. I would like to reinforce the boost they have had. OTOH I am a bit of a Greenie myself and there is a Green MEP already. Which one would best send the message that the political class needs to take a deep breath and stop behaving like boobies?
> >
> >
> >
> > CHUK, I'd say (full declaration - that's what 'll be doing). Say what you like about them, they were at least prepared to put their careers on the line for this - and I think they should be rewarded for that.
> >
> > In London CHUK are pretty sure to get one seat, but unlikely to get a second, while both Greens and LD may be borderline for one. Any of the three is a reasonable vote though.
> >
> > Dehondt not as good as other systems of PR in my view.
>
> Agree D'Hondt is a fairly crap system but it's what we've got.
>
> In London, on latest YG figures the seats are allocated as follows:
>
> 1 Lab
> 2 Brexit
> 3 Lab
> 4 CHUK
> 5 Con
> 6. Brexit
> 7 Green
> 8 Deadheat Lab/LD
>
> You are right CHUK are almost certain to get one seat and no more. Same for Green. An LD vote is the one that is most effective.
>
> If CHUK, LD and Green stood as one party - Remain - the seat allocation would be as follows:
>
> 1 Remain
> 2 Lab
> 3 Brexit
> 4 Remain
> 5 Con
> 6 Lab
> 7 Brexit
> 8 Remain
As you say, the LibDem vote is potentially more effective as the Greens look safe on one and won't get two. The LibDem London candidate is strong; for CUK it depends on what you think of the ex journalist
1) Agree something
2) Various Tory leadership contenders furiously denounce the something and vow not to implement it
3) Pull out of the something, with the (correct) justification that whoever gets TMay's job after TMay is obviously going to renege.
Obviously it would be more efficient just to not to agree the something in the first place, since whoever gets TMay's job after TMay is obviously going to renege, but maybe there's a Labour brexiter left somewhere who would be impressed that he was making the effort.
https://twitter.com/mforstater/status/1124831752504205317?s=21
> [Ruth Davidson] changes her position more often than I change my pants, what a fake.
Once every couple of months???
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17619352.glasgow-attracts-thousands-of-yes-supporters-for-pro-indy-march/
> > @Sandpit said:
> > >
> > Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal.
> >
> >
> >
> > Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible.
> >
> > Would they not simply promise a one-year Parliament, with the sole objective of implementing no-deal Brexit, followed by another election once we’ve actually left?
> >
> > Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced.
>
> The main article is about how the government has lost control of the electoral cycle. To achieve a one year parliament they might need 67% of the seats!
Farage is a campaigner, and a leader in an inspirational sense but not in a managerial one. Over his career he has fallen out with everyone he had worked with from the founder of ukip onwards. Hence the Brexit party is a company not a political party and a GE a hugely bigger challenge than a referendum or the coming quasi-one. A farage government would surely be a rapid disaster
> > @Sandpit said:
> > I note noone (On Twitter) is actually trying to persuade the other side in this debate now.
> >
> > Sadly so. For all this talk of customs unions in the last couple of weeks, how many people are actually weighing up the positives and negatives of that arrangement?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669
>
> I agree with his analysis but I frankly no longer care. If a CU is what it takes to achieve Brexit and get out of this mess I would pay that price. At the moment our MPs are giving us the worst of all possible worlds, paying the price of being in but getting none of the benefits whilst living in a world of uncertainty and confusion. It is remarkable that is not doing even more damage than it is.
You agree with GH's findings that in every way this manifestation of Brexit is going to be extremely damaging to the UK yet you want to go ahead with it anyway.
Either I've misunderstood your post or you've identified Brexit as a religeon and it's all a question of faith.
> I see the English media seem to have missed this one, what a surprise
> https://www.thenational.scot/news/17619352.glasgow-attracts-thousands-of-yes-supporters-for-pro-indy-march/
Twas prominent on the BBC home page despite not making whatever is Scottish for a million
> >
> Not all voters are primarily leavers/remainers. Most who are active on social media, political shows and local politics will be, but there is a significant portion of the country, at least 20%, maybe 30% who don't actually care that much. At a GE the Brexit party will need other policies, which wont be popular, Farage is weak on NHS for example. What about tax, workers rights, housing? How do you marry a coalition of previous Labour voters with elderly Tory voters, it is not easy in a GE, whereas a single issue campaign like the Euros is ideal.
>
>
>
> Picking 600 candidates is a challenge for them, some will turn out to be lunatics which will turn off voters choosing a government, we are used to incompetents and idiots but prefer to keep the real lunatics away if possible.
>
> Would they not simply promise a one-year Parliament, with the sole objective of implementing no-deal Brexit, followed by another election once we’ve actually left?
>
> Picking 600 candidates is always going to be a problem though, they need to be picking them quietly now, while ensuring they all delete any previous social media accounts before they’re announced.
More widely when they are on question time for example, and there is a question on the NHS, and Labour point out Farage wants/wanted to privatise the NHS, they will need to respond with a policy. That policy can then be challenged, some will like it, others wont. It will be hard to maintain discipline, different candidates will just say what they want on each issue. Little of this will happen in the Euros where Farage and Brexit will dominate the conversation, but it is a big problem for them in a GE.
I still think they can do well and better than expected, but 30% Brexit-13% Tory is way too big a gap.
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > [Ruth Davidson] changes her position more often than I change my pants, what a fake.
>
>
>
> Once every couple of months???
>
> More than daily, she is a lying toerag of a donkey
Compromising means changing positions. We have had coalition for most of the last decade and probably will for most of the next decade. The electorate and political class needs to grow up and welcome compromise not accuse any one who does so of being fake or a liar.
> I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
>
> Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it?
>
> Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
What good is splitting the Tories if Labour doesn't gain the power to independently govern at the end of it?
What is the pathway to a Labour majority in 2022 or sooner?
> > @malcolmg said:
> > I see the English media seem to have missed this one, what a surprise
> > https://www.thenational.scot/news/17619352.glasgow-attracts-thousands-of-yes-supporters-for-pro-indy-march/
>
> Twas prominent on the BBC home page despite not making whatever is Scottish for a million
They are missing a hell of a lot more in Paris!
> > @Sandpit said:
> > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
> >
> > Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it?
> >
> > Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
>
> What good is splitting the Tories if Labour doesn't gain the power to independently govern at the end of it?
>
> What is the pathway to a Labour majority in 2022?
>
Disastrous NO DEAL Brexit under Johnson?
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @Sandpit said:
> > > I note noone (On Twitter) is actually trying to persuade the other side in this debate now.
> > >
> > > Sadly so. For all this talk of customs unions in the last couple of weeks, how many people are actually weighing up the positives and negatives of that arrangement?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1112608964053745669
> >
> > I agree with his analysis but I frankly no longer care. If a CU is what it takes to achieve Brexit and get out of this mess I would pay that price. At the moment our MPs are giving us the worst of all possible worlds, paying the price of being in but getting none of the benefits whilst living in a world of uncertainty and confusion. It is remarkable that is not doing even more damage than it is.
>
> You agree with GH's findings that in every way this manifestation of Brexit is going to be extremely damaging to the UK yet you want to go ahead with it anyway.
>
> Either I've misunderstood your post or you've identified Brexit as a religeon and it's all a question of faith.
Leaving in any fashion is dumb and damaging; surely the thinking here is merely damage limitation for exporters and reducing the barriers to re-entry?
> > @Sandpit said:
> > I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
> >
> > Surely his intention is to do an Ed-Miliband-on-Syria, agreeing a deal and promising that all his MPs will slavishly follow the whip and vote for it - followed by abandoning the whip with an hour to go, because of immense internal pressure, but only after half the Conservative Cabinet have resigned to vote against it?
> >
> > Corbyn doesn’t care about any deal or compromise, he just wants to split the Tories. What I don’t get is why the Tories still can’t see straight through him?
>
> What good is splitting the Tories if Labour doesn't gain the power to independently govern at the end of it?
>
> What is the pathway to a Labour majority in 2022 or sooner?
>
Get rid of Corbyn and his cabal
> I don't see how Labour stays together if Corbyn does a deal with the Tories and I don't see how such a deal gets through the Commons. So why would Corbyn do it? There is no upside for him. Here's hoping, though.
>
> Jezza wont do a deal.
>
> This is all a complete waste of time.
Agreed. One lesson Corbyn might take from Thursday is that the Remain vote is now fragmented more than the Brexit vote. The Lib Dems are sback in town, the Greens won a surprising amount of votes and there is also CHUK. Under a FPTP system, that changes his calculation significantly in his remain-voting seats. He may now think it is worth taking the risk of becoming more leave, keep his Brexit-leaning voters on board (who would have only one alternative, the Brexit party) and still win most seats under FPTP as the Remain bloc is so fragmented.