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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If winning the Euro elections had been a good general election

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  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > What the hell is going on with the curve on that not-bar chart?

    Bézier?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > What the hell is going on with the curve on that not-bar chart?

    Assumption that the behaviour is linear between the data points?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > > The Brexit Party & UKIP would of course claim that OGH's last paragraph is incorrect. Brussels makes all the important decisions, according to them.
    > >
    > > Of course, there they have a point. A lot of parliaments time is spent enacting measures that emanate from Brussels. About 75% of law studied at law school these days is EU law apparently. Common Law is sadly not very common these days.
    >
    > Only 12% of our law originates from the EU, and most of that is to do with trade. Even if we are out we are likely to be aligned with most of those laws so we can continue to sell widgets to a CE mark compliance standard. "The EU makes all our laws" rant is one of the biggest lies or misunderstandings told by advocates of Leave

    I’ve seen that 12% figure and I’ve also seen figures that support 62% (% of all EU regs, EU related statutory instruments and EU related Acts of Parliament enacted by U.K. between 1993 and 2014) and I have seen a figure of 75% quoted by EU MEPs.

    There is no point rehashing the referendum debate on the issue unless there is another referendum.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    > @Recidivist said:

    > > @Chelyabinsk said:

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.

    >

    >

    >

    > Don’t see anything wrong with voter ID myself. Only Corbyn and his mates could want a system that allows another Tower Hamlets.

    >

    > You respond to a story demonstrating exactly what is wrong with voter ID by saying you don't see anything wrong with it. What is wrong with it is that it prevents people who might have otherwise voted from voting. How much more wrong can it be than that?



    Nonsense.. What Corbyn is on about is that it prevents people who are living in the black economy from voting. if so, its a good thing. No representation without taxation!! If you haven't got ID in this day and age, you do not deserve to vote.

    It will affect Labour voters disproportionately, but that's because....
    Let me finish your sentence for you. Labour voters are younger, poorer and busier. So having less resources they will inevitably be at a disadvantage if barriers are put in the way of voting. Which is why the Conservatives have picked up this idea from the Republicans in a blatant, cynical and undemocratic attempt to bolster their position. It has absolutely nothing to do with Tower Hamlets and everything to do with undermining our public life.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    @rcs1000 said:

    "I think that is an excellent analysis. But it's also worth noting that many states - even moderately successful ones - cannot be reasonably described as nation states.

    The UK - with the its separatist Scots, funny speaking Welsh, and rebellious Northern Irish - might fall into that category. You could make a similar (albeit different cases) about France, Spain, Canada. Switzerland and Belgium fail most of the tests for being Nation States, but both have lasted quite a long time, and show no sign of breaking up.

    There's probably a two-thirds chance that the EU ceases to continue in its current fashion in some way in the next 50 years. But how it breaks up is another matter: will it end up with a dozen states with little in common? Will it return to a common market type system? Or will a core become something looking rather more like an actual country?

    Who knows? And some of the threats to it, might also drive integration. Necessity is usually the mother of integration - Scotland joined the UK because it was frankly bust and needed bailing out - perhaps an external threat will force the EU together. Or perhaps money for politicians from Russia combined with external force will fissure it?

    As I said, who knows?"

    *

    If only we did.

    The big worry I have is that if the EU breaks up, what the continent will see in its place is a set of aggressively competing nationalist agendas, with co-operation and our critical mass of common values and standards replaced by an overriding desire to WIN.

    A whole bunch of countries all hell bent on (oh dear) making themselves great again.

    Should this come to pass, the consequences for us could be several degrees of magnitude worse than having to comply with Brussels diktats on how many bananas makes a bunch.

    It's the main reason I was for Remain, actually. I hate the idea that us leaving will in any way weaken Le Grand Projet.

    Fear not what the EU might do to Britain. Fear what the absence of Britain might do to the EU.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited May 2019
    RobD said:

    > @El_Capitano said:

    > What the hell is going on with the curve on that not-bar chart?



    Assumption that the behaviour is linear between the data points?

    Well quite. And to misquote Elgar, assumption makes an ass out of Herbert Sumsion.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    > @Mango said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1123971032845561857?s=21
    >
    > Brexiteers talking utter bollocks shock.

    Remainers insulting Brexiteers on the pages of PB shock.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > How hard is it to take ID into a voting station ? People who are that keen to vote will go back with ID. I would have thought anyone with a genuine interest in democracy would want to prevent vote rigging such as occurred in Tower Hamlets.

    I can't help notice you've ignored my comment about your laughable claim about law school in the UK.

    You have one of three options:

    1. Prove it is correct, and win £1,000 for the charity of your choice.

    2. Admit you completely made it up, and promise not to make shit up again.

    3. Be banned for being a dick.

    Your call.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > > @El_Capitano said:
    >
    > > What the hell is going on with the curve on that not-bar chart?
    >
    >
    >
    > Assumption that the behaviour is linear between the data points?
    >
    > Well quite. And to misquote Elgar, assumption makes an ass out of Herbert Sumsion.

    Probably reasonable, unless you think there is a huge change between "not at all important" and "not very important". Perhaps "not very important but more than not at all important" would be a popular choice? :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1123903908248727552?s=19

    Except she doesn't claim to be. I take it he hasn't read the PM's letter?
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 500
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1123973291058900992
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
    >
    > It says 21.

    When it was originally posted, it said '18' and that she had been voting for '70 years' (which, if she's 87, was in itself a good example of Diane Abbott maths).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Mr. Kamski, Germany being pro-EU is pretty easy to understand. They benefit from a permanently artificially weakened currency which boosts their exports, with no cost to themselves. There's also (no idea how strong this is now) been a desire to turn the page from postwar guilt.
    >
    > I do think the unravelling of the EU, when it happens, is going to be quite ugly. We've seen even what happens to the body politics following a free and fair referendum from just one member state. When the whole house of cards comes crashing down, a war is eminently possible.
    >
    > The fastest growing economies in the EU at the moment are Eurozone members that are not Germany, whose growth is below the EU average.
    >
    > Malta 🇲🇹 +5,2%
    > Ireland 🇮🇪 +4,1%
    > Slovakia 🇸🇰 +4,1%
    >
    > What do you think "the whole house of cards crashing down" means in practice? What would people be fighting over, with what means, and with what objectives?

    midget economies that prey off their neighbours
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kinabalu said:

    @rcs1000 said:



    "I think that is an excellent analysis. But it's also worth noting that many states - even moderately successful ones - cannot be reasonably described as nation states.



    The UK - with the its separatist Scots, funny speaking Welsh, and rebellious Northern Irish - might fall into that category. You could make a similar (albeit different cases) about France, Spain, Canada. Switzerland and Belgium fail most of the tests for being Nation States, but both have lasted quite a long time, and show no sign of breaking up.



    There's probably a two-thirds chance that the EU ceases to continue in its current fashion in some way in the next 50 years. But how it breaks up is another matter: will it end up with a dozen states with little in common? Will it return to a common market type system? Or will a core become something looking rather more like an actual country?



    Who knows? And some of the threats to it, might also drive integration. Necessity is usually the mother of integration - Scotland joined the UK because it was frankly bust and needed bailing out - perhaps an external threat will force the EU together. Or perhaps money for politicians from Russia combined with external force will fissure it?



    As I said, who knows?"



    *



    If only we did.



    The big worry I have is that if the EU breaks up, what the continent will see in its place is a set of aggressively competing nationalist agendas, with co-operation and our critical mass of common values and standards replaced by an overriding desire to WIN.



    A whole bunch of countries all hell bent on (oh dear) making themselves great again.



    Should this come to pass, the consequences for us could be several degrees of magnitude worse than having to comply with Brussels diktats on how many bananas makes a bunch.



    It's the main reason I was for Remain, actually. I hate the idea that us leaving will in any way weaken Le Grand Projet.



    Fear not what the EU might do to Britain. Fear what the absence of Britain might do to the EU.

    Missed out the Colonial xenophobic English running roughshod over their own union partners (sic) whilst whinging incessantly that the EU union does not kow tow to them.
    The ignorance of why/how the Scots joined the union is mind boggling. It was done for 12 Nobles who had lost all their cash on a ponzi scheme, the Scottish Exchequer was in good shape.
    The delusion on here that the EU will miss the whinging UK is a complete fantasy by people with delusions about the banana republic's importance. They will be singing in the streets when they are shot of UK.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    > @tlg86 said:
    > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    >
    >
    >
    > Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?

    Surely if both your parents were born in these islands, then 'being British' is the easy/lazy option. If however they or you came here because they wanted to, that's more of a commitment to being British. They, or you made a choice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. There is no evidence at all that not asking for voter ID is imperilling the integrity of the electoral system. There is plenty of evidence that voter ID prevents some people voting.

    It really does not seem an arduous or unreasonable barrier to me, but equally it seems like it might be more trouble than it is worth re the outrage it provokes,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:

    > I’ve seen that 12% figure and I’ve also seen figures that support 62% (% of all EU regs, EU related statutory instruments and EU related Acts of Parliament enacted by U.K. between 1993 and 2014) and I have seen a figure of 75% quoted by EU MEPs.

    I voted Leave, but I didn't vote for "Make Shit Up and Hope Not To Be Called Out Over It".

    We don't have to debate how mucg of <b>legislation</b> between 1993 and 2014 came from the EU, because we can simply look it up here:

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga

    So, why don't you take a look through and then come back with some evidence rather than a bullshitty "oh someone once said something and I don't remember what it was but it sounds kind of like what I'd like to believe so I'm going to quote it as fact"
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > https://twitter.com/superseveriano/status/1123926197094768640?s=19

    Would that not be a criminal offence whichever party does it? Evidence there to bring in the police.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Ok so I just voted and the electoral roll was pretty healthily crossed off. Probably at least par turnout for locals here.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I’ve been out of the country the last few days, has anything important happened in British politics in the last 48 hours or so?

    You haven’t been throwing small people into fountains have you?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > > @tlg86 said:
    > > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?
    >
    > Surely if both your parents were born in these islands, then 'being British' is the easy/lazy option. If however they or you came here because they wanted to, that's more of a commitment to being British. They, or you made a choice.

    I thought leavers were supposed to want to be English?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > > @tlg86 said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?
    > >
    > > Surely if both your parents were born in these islands, then 'being British' is the easy/lazy option. If however they or you came here because they wanted to, that's more of a commitment to being British. They, or you made a choice.
    >
    > I thought leavers were supposed to want to be English?

    I doubt that is true in Wales!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Could a Tory somewhere tonight get zero votes, meaning even the candidate didn't vote for themselves?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Could a Tory somewhere tonight get zero votes, meaning even the candidate didn't vote for themselves?

    There will be a number of Tories today that will get zero votes.

    Said Tories will also be elected.

    It's a riddle, isn't it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    @malcolmg said

    "The delusion on here that the EU will miss the whinging UK is a complete fantasy by people with delusions about the banana republic's importance. They will be singing in the streets when they are shot of UK."

    *

    Well if they are definitely going to survive and prosper without us, if I really did know that, I am happy enough to Leave.

    Still rather not, but at least I wouldn't feel all guilty about it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @Verulamius said:
    > I’ve been out of the country the last few days, has anything important happened in British politics in the last 48 hours or so?
    >
    > Kezia Dugdale has quit as a MSP.

    I genuinely missed that
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1123940873442680832

    Glad to see they will facilitate remain or remain leaning parties to punish the government for not leaving yet. That'll see Brexit happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Two Tory votes in my household today - that's a big swing from the last local elections.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Could a Tory somewhere tonight get zero votes, meaning even the candidate didn't vote for themselves?

    Well it's happened before to TUSC;

    https://metro.co.uk/2015/05/17/socialist-candidate-left-red-faced-as-he-got-no-votes-in-the-elections-5200636/
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > Ok so I just voted and the electoral roll was pretty healthily crossed off. Probably at least par turnout for locals here.

    Anecdotal, but the same here. It looked to me like a high level of crossing off for a local election and certainly the polling station was busier than normal in May.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kle4 said:

    > @Verulamius said:

    > I’ve been out of the country the last few days, has anything important happened in British politics in the last 48 hours or so?

    >

    > Kezia Dugdale has quit as a MSP.



    I genuinely missed that

    Easily missed given the absolute donkey has done nothing for years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1123940873442680832
    >
    > Glad to see they will facilitate remain or remain leaning parties to punish the government for not leaving yet. That'll see Brexit happen.

    I hope he is in an unwinnable seat or he might get in...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Two Tory votes in my household today - that's a big swing from the last local elections.

    I thought you were a Lib Dem member?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kinabalu said:

    @malcolmg said



    "The delusion on here that the EU will miss the whinging UK is a complete fantasy by people with delusions about the banana republic's importance. They will be singing in the streets when they are shot of UK."



    *



    Well if they are definitely going to survive and prosper without us, if I really did know that, I am happy enough to Leave.



    Still rather not, but at least I wouldn't feel all guilty about it.

    Point is that the EU will not miss the UK, and no chance it will cause them anything but some temporary hassle. UK will be double desperate to deal with them on any basis as we have seen with Theresa's crap agreement. Some people are delusional re the importance of the UK backwater.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > About to go and try to vote. I received a letter from Bradford council to say that I would be added to the electoral register on 1st May. Let's hope I'm on the list. I'm going to take the letter with me - I don't have a poll card.
    >
    > Update later...

    Update:

    Success! Me and Wor Lass were on the list. 2 votes for Labour.

    Turnout was 'brisk' despite it pissing it down.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited May 2019
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > Two Tory votes in my household today - that's a big swing from the last local elections.
    >
    > I thought you were a Lib Dem member?

    I let that lapse when they didn't support the MV.
  • phiwphiw Posts: 32
    Wasn't there an episode of Yes, Prime Minister where Number 10 purposely leaked a confidential memo about something embarrassing to Hacker and pinned it on one of the Cabinet (knowing that the SoS was disliked and perceived to be untrustworthy anyway) to get rid of him?

    Maybe I'm conflating a multiple episodes into one.

    {Long time lurker, first time poster]
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Could a Tory somewhere tonight get zero votes, meaning even the candidate didn't vote for themselves?
    >
    > There will be a number of Tories today that will get zero votes.
    >
    > Said Tories will also be elected.
    >
    > It's a riddle, isn't it?

    I did wonder about that; is it true that the Tories will start the night having gained seats from other parties because of non-contested wards?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486

    I want to make it clear that I'm only putting this reply up cos I love Blazing Saddles.

    https://twitter.com/BriW74/status/1123983709030449152
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Steady stream of voters at my polling station. We do have our first contested Parish Council election in 20 years to add to the excitement of the District Council elections.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Welcome to PB, Mr. Phiw.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > About to go and try to vote. I received a letter from Bradford council to say that I would be added to the electoral register on 1st May. Let's hope I'm on the list. I'm going to take the letter with me - I don't have a poll card.
    > >
    > > Update later...
    >
    > Update:
    >
    > Success! Me and Wor Lass were on the list. 2 votes for Labour.
    >
    > Turnout was 'brisk' despite it pissing it down.

    Yay !
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?
    Who the fuck cares?

    One world.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Could a Tory somewhere tonight get zero votes, meaning even the candidate didn't vote for themselves?

    Unless things have changed they don't have to live in their ward. They only have to live or work in the Borough so they often can't vote for themselves. However they had to receive 10 nominations from the ward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @phiw said:
    > Wasn't there an episode of Yes, Prime Minister where Number 10 purposely leaked a confidential memo about something embarrassing to Hacker and pinned it on one of the Cabinet (knowing that the SoS was disliked and perceived to be untrustworthy anyway) to get rid of him?
    >
    > Maybe I'm conflating a multiple episodes into one.
    >
    > {Long time lurker, first time poster]

    He gave a quote to be used to discredit a leak and said it should be attributed to 'close cabinet colleague'.
  • phiwphiw Posts: 32
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Welcome to PB, Mr. Phiw.

    Thanks very much!

    I'm very disappointed in myself that I've been a daily reader of this site since 2006, and I've only just now joined.

    Better late than never I suppose!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @malcolmg said:
    > @malcolmg said
    >
    >
    >
    > "The delusion on here that the EU will miss the whinging UK is a complete fantasy by people with delusions about the banana republic's importance. They will be singing in the streets when they are shot of UK."
    >
    >
    >
    > *
    >
    >
    >
    > Well if they are definitely going to survive and prosper without us, if I really did know that, I am happy enough to Leave.
    >
    >
    >
    > Still rather not, but at least I wouldn't feel all guilty about it.
    >
    > Point is that the EU will not miss the UK,

    I love that some people claim this, while others claim the EU, while able to manage without us, is very keen for us to say.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Very succinct from Watson.

    The guy is a class act.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @phiw said:
    > Wasn't there an episode of Yes, Prime Minister where Number 10 purposely leaked a confidential memo about something embarrassing to Hacker and pinned it on one of the Cabinet (knowing that the SoS was disliked and perceived to be untrustworthy anyway) to get rid of him?
    >
    > Maybe I'm conflating a multiple episodes into one.
    >
    > {Long time lurker, first time poster]

    Welcome to the site
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited May 2019
    > @phiw said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > > Welcome to PB, Mr. Phiw.
    >
    > Thanks very much!
    >
    > I'm very disappointed in myself that I've been a daily reader of this site since 2006, and I've only just now joined.
    >
    > Better late than never I suppose!

    Lurking for THIRTEEN years - wow!

    I'm off to vote in a minute - get three votes and have settled on one Tory (good on local issues), one Green (ditto), and still undecided on where to give my third. Labour ran a good campaign round here but can't bring myself to vote for them even in the locals. Only LibLabConGreen here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    On the truly British question, replace it with Chinese... @AlastairMeeks said:
    > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    On the subject of the thread header.

    I find it extremely odd that we're comparing 2001 to 2019. Back then, Europe was an issue that concerned only a few obsessives, today it's the number one - some might say the only - issue of the day.

    For this reason, of we haven't left by the time of the next GE I fully expect the Brexit Party's share of vote to be similar to what it is in the Euros. Because the question of who is most to fit to govern has effectively become the question of who is most fit to handle Brexit.
  • phiwphiw Posts: 32
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @phiw said:
    > > Wasn't there an episode of Yes, Prime Minister where Number 10 purposely leaked a confidential memo about something embarrassing to Hacker and pinned it on one of the Cabinet (knowing that the SoS was disliked and perceived to be untrustworthy anyway) to get rid of him?
    > >
    > > Maybe I'm conflating a multiple episodes into one.
    > >
    > > {Long time lurker, first time poster]
    >
    > Welcome to the site

    Thank you Mike!

    13 years too late, but fantastic to see this place still going strong.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    TudorRose said:

    > @brokenwheel said:

    > Ok so I just voted and the electoral roll was pretty healthily crossed off. Probably at least par turnout for locals here.



    Anecdotal, but the same here. It looked to me like a high level of crossing off for a local election and certainly the polling station was busier than normal in May.

    I found it interesting because this is supposed to be a fairly Leave ward, so no sign of frustration with politics affecting turnout.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > > @brokenwheel said:
    >
    > > Ok so I just voted and the electoral roll was pretty healthily crossed off. Probably at least par turnout for locals here.
    >
    >
    >
    > Anecdotal, but the same here. It looked to me like a high level of crossing off for a local election and certainly the polling station was busier than normal in May.
    >
    > I found it interesting because this is supposed to be a fairly Leave ward, so no sign of frustration with politics affecting turnout.

    Same here. Normally a safe Tory (and Leave) ward but this year there have been quite a few Labour posters around.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited May 2019
    Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.

    Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    Cyclefree said:

    Nor am I nor or my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.

    Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    I'm not British either apparently.

    Oddly I probably have more in common with the patron saint of England than most English people per that definition.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    > @kyf_100 said:
    > On the subject of the thread header.
    >
    > I find it extremely odd that we're comparing 2001 to 2019. Back then, Europe was an issue that concerned only a few obsessives, today it's the number one - some might say the only - issue of the day.
    >
    > For this reason, of we haven't left by the time of the next GE I fully expect the Brexit Party's share of vote to be similar to what it is in the Euros. Because the question of who is most to fit to govern has effectively become the question of who is most fit to handle Brexit.

    Think back only as far as the 2017. May wanted it to be the Brexit election but other matters dominated. Yes, Brexit is the #1 issue of the day, but General Elections resolutely stay that way: general.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,851
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > On the truly British question, replace it with Chinese... @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    >
    >

    The premise of the question is a bit weird to me, what on earth does truly British mean? Are others falsely British?

    It is also a leading questions as compared to asking about being British. It suggests something beyond being British is required which some people might consider requiring both parents born in the UK (not sure why not Great Britain if we are getting pedantic about nationality), particularly if it is shoved in front of them in a survey.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,581
    Why should people be regarded as predictable in these sorts of ways anyway. they aren't, thankfully. I have just voted, very positively, for a person in our borough election from a party I would almost never vote for in a GE or Euros. I can't see that anyone knows anything about how marginal/swing/floating voters will go in a GE. Even more than last time. We don't know anything about the particular and unique circumstances of the next GE, or anything about when it will be (except that it's by 2022 barring national emergencies). The likelihood of the next GE being in peculiar and special circumstances is particularly high. That much we know.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    TudorRose said:

    > @brokenwheel said:

    > > @brokenwheel said:

    >

    > > Ok so I just voted and the electoral roll was pretty healthily crossed off. Probably at least par turnout for locals here.

    >

    >

    >

    > Anecdotal, but the same here. It looked to me like a high level of crossing off for a local election and certainly the polling station was busier than normal in May.

    >

    > I found it interesting because this is supposed to be a fairly Leave ward, so no sign of frustration with politics affecting turnout.



    Same here. Normally a safe Tory (and Leave) ward but this year there have been quite a few Labour posters around.

    This is the least safe Tory multi member ward in the area. There's been nothing from Labour here, which is very unusual. No signs up in the windows anywhere in the ward. So I have no idea who they're voting for. :|
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Interesting stuff.

    https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1123691127578746880

    On the whole British thing someone who had spent some time here and thought of themselves as British would be British to me. I've known a few people who have been here from birth or a young age and they seem as British as me, the one guy thought of himself as British and Nigerian so that is how I thought of him, although (to my mind anyway) more British than Nigerian.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Pulpstar said:

    > @williamglenn said:

    > > @Pulpstar said:

    > > Two Tory votes in my household today - that's a big swing from the last local elections.

    >

    > I thought you were a Lib Dem member?



    I let that lapse when they didn't support the MV.

    I lose track of your politics, Pulpstar!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    >
    >
    >
    > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.
    >
    > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?

    I've been spending rather too much around hospitals over the last few weeks, and the NHS would cease to function if the brilliant non- true British' men and women who helped us decided they weren't welcome.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Well after a personal issue with one of the Libdems I actually voted 2 Libdem and 1 Tory in South Glos. 3 from 6 Our town council vote was disappointingly up to 4 from 5 which was 4 Libdems and 1 Tory. How anyone can read too much from these elections I am unsure.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,434
    edited May 2019
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    >
    >
    >
    > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.
    >
    > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?

    Why do people get upset by shit like this? I have absolutely no proof, but it just seems like this sort of stuff gets pumped out to further divide the country.
    On a more positive note........

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/britons-more-sold-on-immigration-benefits-than-other-europeans
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Nor am I nor or my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.

    Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    I'm not British either apparently.

    Oddly I probably have more in common with the patron saint of England than most English people per that definition.
    The irony is that my father’s family have lived in the British Isles since the Norman invasion of Ireland, which is probably a hell of a lot longer than the twerps behind these “Truly British” tests.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    > @Dadge said:
    > > @kyf_100 said:
    > > On the subject of the thread header.
    > >
    > > I find it extremely odd that we're comparing 2001 to 2019. Back then, Europe was an issue that concerned only a few obsessives, today it's the number one - some might say the only - issue of the day.
    > >
    > > For this reason, of we haven't left by the time of the next GE I fully expect the Brexit Party's share of vote to be similar to what it is in the Euros. Because the question of who is most to fit to govern has effectively become the question of who is most fit to handle Brexit.
    >
    > Think back only as far as the 2017. May wanted it to be the Brexit election but other matters dominated. Yes, Brexit is the #1 issue of the day, but General Elections resolutely stay that way: general.

    I don't agree. In 2017 the Conservatives promised to deliver Brexit and enough people believed them. Who still believes that in 2019?

    Of course it's not the *only* issue. But it is big enough to retain a 30% share of the vote, or fairly close.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,581
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @OldKingCole said:
    > > > @tlg86 said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?
    > >
    > > Surely if both your parents were born in these islands, then 'being British' is the easy/lazy option. If however they or you came here because they wanted to, that's more of a commitment to being British. They, or you made a choice.
    >
    > I thought leavers were supposed to want to be English?


    I have a feeling that answers to such questions are proxies for something else altogether and should be treated with caution.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Strong rain here, much needed in the garden. Most welcome as I was too lazy to water it this morning.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,193
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?
    I think if a person has British citizenship they are legally British. Whether someone identifies themselves as "British" outside of legal/similar contexts is up to them, and it isn't for anyone else to say whether another person is "truly British". The very question is unpleasantly dodgy.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,851
    > @kyf_100 said:
    > On the subject of the thread header.
    >
    > I find it extremely odd that we're comparing 2001 to 2019. Back then, Europe was an issue that concerned only a few obsessives, today it's the number one - some might say the only - issue of the day.
    >
    > For this reason, of we haven't left by the time of the next GE I fully expect the Brexit Party's share of vote to be similar to what it is in the Euros. Because the question of who is most to fit to govern has effectively become the question of who is most fit to handle Brexit.

    Kind of agreed. I think it unlikely people who vote in the GE but not the EU elections would break similarly to those who vote in the EU elections (indeed there will be some happy to back Brexit as a winner in EU elections who wont be bothered to back them in safe seats in a GE).

    But 2001 and 2019 are clearly completely different with far more political volatility and opportunity for Brexit party than UKIP ever had. There could be a lot of time between now and the GE, we could see senior defections from the Tory ERG to Brexit, lots can change quickly.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @kyf_100 said:
    > On the subject of the thread header.
    >
    > I find it extremely odd that we're comparing 2001 to 2019. Back then, Europe was an issue that concerned only a few obsessives, today it's the number one - some might say the only - issue of the day.
    >
    > For this reason, of we haven't left by the time of the next GE I fully expect the Brexit Party's share of vote to be similar to what it is in the Euros. Because the question of who is most to fit to govern has effectively become the question of who is most fit to handle Brexit.

    I disagree with that. Brexit is very much an issue for obsessives and most people are sick to death of it - despite being aware that it is an issue of great importance. Party leaders who raise other issues at a GE will have a very receptive audience.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    > @Cyclefree said:

    >



    >

    >

    >

    > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.

    >

    > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?



    Why do people get upset by shit like this? I have absolutely no proof, but it just seems like this sort of stuff gets pumped to to further divide the country.

    On a more positive note........



    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/britons-more-sold-on-immigration-benefits-than-other-europeans
    I don’t get upset. It’s mostly amusing. What is disconcerting is the thought that some fellow citizens might actually take this kind of stuff seriously.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.
    > >
    > > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    >
    > Why do people get upset by shit like this? I have absolutely no proof, but it just seems like this sort of stuff gets pumped to to further divide the country.
    > On a more positive note........
    >
    > https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/britons-more-sold-on-immigration-benefits-than-other-europeans

    I’m always sceptical about questions like this. We don’t know what other questions were asked, and it is made out to be racist but it depends how you define truly
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    edited May 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.

    Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    I think if you’re born and brought up in the UK - and have lived here your whole life - you’re very much British.

    If one or more of your parents was born overseas then the extent to which that influenced your own identity would depend on how British they saw they themselves compared to other cultures and influenced the upbringing of their family accordingly.

    For example, I suspect there are some communities in which both parents were born in the UK and the child *still* doesn’t particularly identify as British because they feel more culturally affiliated to their roots stretching two or three generations back.

    Conversely, there are those who are *both* born overseas who immigrate here and feel uniformly British within 10 years, before they have kids, who then feel very strongly British in turn themselves.

    So it can work either way round, and it’s a bit of a silly question.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kamski said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?
    I think if a person has British citizenship they are legally British. Whether someone identifies themselves as "British" outside of legal/similar contexts is up to them, and it isn't for anyone else to say whether another person is "truly British". The very question is unpleasantly dodgy.
    I would never ever say I am British, I am Scottish.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    > @_Anazina_ said:
    > https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1123903908248727552
    >
    >
    >
    > Very succinct from Watson.
    >
    > The guy is a class act.

    You say "very succinct", I say "almost incoherent"...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are we the only country in the world at the moment which doesn't usually require any form of ID when voting?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Cyclefree said:

    >



    >

    >

    >

    > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.

    >

    > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?



    Why do people get upset by shit like this? I have absolutely no proof, but it just seems like this sort of stuff gets pumped to to further divide the country.

    On a more positive note........



    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/britons-more-sold-on-immigration-benefits-than-other-europeans
    I don’t get upset. It’s mostly amusing. What is disconcerting is the thought that some fellow citizens might actually take this kind of stuff seriously.
    They do, but there are two groups of them who do so for completely conflicting reasons.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,497
    AndyJS said:

    Are we the only country in the world at the moment which doesn't usually require any form of ID when voting?

    Makes me proud to be British.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,581
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    >
    >
    >
    > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.
    >
    > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    >
    > I think if you’re born and brought up in the UK - and have lived here your whole life - you’re very much British.
    >
    > If one or more of your parents was born overseas then the extent to which that influenced your own identity would depend on how British they saw they themselves compared to other cultures and influenced the upbringing of their family accordingly.
    >
    > For example, I suspect there are some communities in which both parents were born in the UK and the child *still* doesn’t particularly identify as British because they feel more culturally affiliated to their roots stretching two or three generations back.
    >
    > Conversely, there are those who are *both* born overseas who immigrate here and feel uniformly British within 10 years, before they have kids, who then feel very strongly British in turn themselves.
    >
    > So it can work either way round, and it’s a bit of a silly question.

    Absolutely. If you ask a silly generalised non specific question you will get a range of silly generalised non specific answers.

    So, if you answer 'not at all important' can you be taken as meaning that anyone in the world can properly self identify as British because they feel like it? Obviously not. So it is equally silly to draw silly conclusions from the generalisations of traditional people and from less traditional ones.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,851
    > @malcolmg said:
    > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    >
    >
    >
    > Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?
    >
    > I think if a person has British citizenship they are legally British. Whether someone identifies themselves as "British" outside of legal/similar contexts is up to them, and it isn't for anyone else to say whether another person is "truly British". The very question is unpleasantly dodgy.
    >
    > I would never ever say I am British, I am Scottish.

    Is someone who prides themselves more on being English than British, truly British? It is a very daft concept that will mean completely different things to each of us, with plenty giving it very little thought before answering.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,581
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > Are we the only country in the world at the moment which doesn't usually require any form of ID when voting?
    >
    > Makes me proud to be British.


    Agree, it is a wonderful relic of a different age and so change is bound to be on the way. It represents trust of a very high order.

    The factor most eroding trust is the proliferation of postal voting. Public voting is subject to the quiet restraints of civic public space which prevent any serious possibility of significant levels of people being forced or intimidated into voting a particular way. The lack of any such controls over postal voting is a major potential hazard, and is unquantifiable. It should only be allowed is very exceptional cases, and should be subject to the same scrutiny as the public ballot.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,851
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Are we the only country in the world at the moment which doesn't usually require any form of ID when voting?

    No but most do. I understand in Switzerland you can show your military bayonet instead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Are we the only country in the world at the moment which doesn't usually require any form of ID when voting?

    India, the world's largest democracy, doesn't require ID.

    But when you vote, your hand is stamped with indelible ink, so you can't go vote again.

    There is - of course - a really simple solution to this. If you don't have ID, then you sign a document saying you are who you say you are, and you have a photo taken with that doc.

    It stops disenfranchisement, and reduces illegal voting by 99%.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.

    Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    I think if you’re born and brought up in the UK - and have lived here your whole life - you’re very much British.

    If one or more of your parents was born overseas then the extent to which that influenced your own identity would depend on how British they saw they themselves compared to other cultures and influenced the upbringing of their family accordingly.

    For example, I suspect there are some communities in which both parents were born in the UK and the child *still* doesn’t particularly identify as British because they feel more culturally affiliated to their roots stretching two or three generations back.

    Conversely, there are those who are *both* born overseas who immigrate here and feel uniformly British within 10 years, before they have kids, who then feel very strongly British in turn themselves.

    So it can work either way round, and it’s a bit of a silly question.
    If you have one or both parents born overseas, you are, I think, blessed because you have both the advantages of being British but also the perspective of the “outsider”, which having another language or life in another country or family ties, a different religion and additional cultural perspectives gives you. So you can be both part of the group and outside it.

    It can be lonely at times - you can sometimes feel as if you don’t fully belong anywhere. But it gives you a perspective, a third eye, as it were, which is a great advantage. And it teaches you how to adapt and also how to differentiate yourself. In a sense, you learn how to play roles at a much earlier age than most people simply because you cannot take anything for granted or assume that people around you are operating on the same unspoken assumptions.

    That can be a great strength. Or rather, having realised that this what your life and experiences and family have given you, you turn it into a strength.

    At least, that’s my personal take on it, having both parents from overseas, with cultures and backgrounds very different to each other and in crucial ways very different from British culture and with my mother tongue not even being English.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    edited May 2019
    > @algarkirk said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.
    > >
    > > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    > >
    > > I think if you’re born and brought up in the UK - and have lived here your whole life - you’re very much British.
    > >
    > > If one or more of your parents was born overseas then the extent to which that influenced your own identity would depend on how British they saw they themselves compared to other cultures and influenced the upbringing of their family accordingly.
    > >
    > > For example, I suspect there are some communities in which both parents were born in the UK and the child *still* doesn’t particularly identify as British because they feel more culturally affiliated to their roots stretching two or three generations back.
    > >
    > > Conversely, there are those who are *both* born overseas who immigrate here and feel uniformly British within 10 years, before they have kids, who then feel very strongly British in turn themselves.
    > >
    > > So it can work either way round, and it’s a bit of a silly question.
    >
    > Absolutely. If you ask a silly generalised non specific question you will get a range of silly generalised non specific answers.
    >
    > So, if you answer 'not at all important' can you be taken as meaning that anyone in the world can properly self identify as British because they feel like it? Obviously not. So it is equally silly to draw silly conclusions from the generalisations of traditional people and from less traditional ones.

    Except the answers are clearly not randomly distributed, there being quite notable differences along the Leave/Remain axis. Why do you think that may be? probably an edge thing imo.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Are we the only country in the world at the moment which doesn't usually require any form of ID when voting?
    >
    > No but most do. I understand in Switzerland you can show your military bayonet instead.

    Maybe I should rephrase the question: are we the only country in the world which doesn't require you to show anything before voting, and where you aren't marked by indelible ink on your finger, etc?

    I actually like it. It shows what a high trust society we are. In some places in the United States you can't even buy a local train service ticket without showing ID.

    There are probably a tiny number of people who take advantage of our system in order to vote twice but not enough to change the system.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,581
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @algarkirk said:
    > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/D_Shariatmadari/status/1123951287622676486
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Nor am I nor my sibling nor any of my cousins living and born in this country, nor some of our children.
    > > >
    > > > Oh well. Can we be excused paying British tax if we’re not “truly British”?
    > > >
    > > > I think if you’re born and brought up in the UK - and have lived here your whole life - you’re very much British.
    > > >
    > > > If one or more of your parents was born overseas then the extent to which that influenced your own identity would depend on how British they saw they themselves compared to other cultures and influenced the upbringing of their family accordingly.
    > > >
    > > > For example, I suspect there are some communities in which both parents were born in the UK and the child *still* doesn’t particularly identify as British because they feel more culturally affiliated to their roots stretching two or three generations back.
    > > >
    > > > Conversely, there are those who are *both* born overseas who immigrate here and feel uniformly British within 10 years, before they have kids, who then feel very strongly British in turn themselves.
    > > >
    > > > So it can work either way round, and it’s a bit of a silly question.
    > >
    > > Absolutely. If you ask a silly generalised non specific question you will get a range of silly generalised non specific answers.
    > >
    > > So, if you answer 'not at all important' can you be taken as meaning that anyone in the world can properly self identify as British because they feel like it? Obviously not. So it is equally silly to draw silly conclusions from the generalisations of traditional people and from less traditional ones.
    >
    > Except the answers are clearly not randomly distributed, there being quite notable differences along the Leave/Remain axis. Why do you think that may be? probably an edge thing imo.

    Because different political groups give different silly general answers to silly general questions.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    > @malcolmg said:

    >



    >

    >

    >

    > Interesting that "not very important" is the highest for remainers. Not sure what I'd say to that question. Certainly not "very important", but then how do you define "truly" British?

    >

    > I think if a person has British citizenship they are legally British. Whether someone identifies themselves as "British" outside of legal/similar contexts is up to them, and it isn't for anyone else to say whether another person is "truly British". The very question is unpleasantly dodgy.

    >

    > I would never ever say I am British, I am Scottish.



    Is someone who prides themselves more on being English than British, truly British? It is a very daft concept that will mean completely different things to each of us, with plenty giving it very little thought before answering.
    For me British means nothing , an invented thing , like saying I am European or African , etc. Pointless crap.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    edited May 2019
    <h1>NEW THREAD</H1>
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,851
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Are we the only country in the world at the moment which doesn't usually require any form of ID when voting?
    >
    > India, the world's largest democracy, doesn't require ID.
    >
    > But when you vote, your hand is stamped with indelible ink, so you can't go vote again.
    >
    > There is - of course - a really simple solution to this. If you don't have ID, then you sign a document saying you are who you say you are, and you have a photo taken with that doc.
    >
    > It stops disenfranchisement, and reduces illegal voting by 99%.

    I think India now requires ID, either the official voter ID card or alternative trusted ID

    https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/election-faq-how-to-cast-vote-without-voter-id-726912.html
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315





    Impressive for her to have voted in every election since she was 18, when the age limit should have been 21.
    And she has had the vote all that time while thinking bringing a photo of yourself is proof of identity!

This discussion has been closed.