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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » George Galloway wants to be the Brexit candidate in Peterborough and threatens to run an as indy if he isn’t
NEW: @georgegalloway tells me that he has approached @Nigel_Farage directly to say he wants to stand in Peterborough by-election for his Brexit Party. But if not selected, he could stand as an independent.
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He is better against a Blair type Labour party, up against a left wing one some of his appeal is gone. Not sure how normal Farage voters will take to him but I suppose it depends how important Brexit is to them.
He would struggle to get more than 10%.
Farage should tell him to sod off.
Run Widdicombe instead.
So probably yes, but only for 15 mins.
"The Telegraph will not of course reveal its source for the leak but supposing for a moment it wasn't Williamson - what's to stop them loudly proclaiming it wasn't him?"
Because then people can accuse the next innocent and dare the Telegraph to loudly proclaim their innocence, etc.
Hence why, "neither confirm, not deny..."
> Does Galloway have any record in Peterborough? What is his campaign message going to be.
>
> Farage should tell him to sod off.
>
> Run Widdicombe instead.
Widdecombe would be my choice, too. She's a sensible old Tory, she's not posh, she will appeal to senior voters, and she's got a personal fan base cause of her novels and Strictly.
She won't say anything stupid and she has no skeletons in the wardrobe. She could win it.
Sounds posh to me, but I am NW England via Birmingham.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Does Galloway have any record in Peterborough? What is his campaign message going to be.
> >
> > Farage should tell him to sod off.
> >
> > Run Widdicombe instead.
>
> Widdecombe would be my choice, too. She's a sensible old Tory, she's not posh, she will appeal to senior voters, and she's got a personal fan base cause of her novels and Strictly.
>
> She won't say anything stupid and she has no skeletons in the wardrobe. She could win it.
I seem to remember that when she was a politician she often made mistakes, gaffes if you like, that ultimately undermined the team she represented. She pretty much shoots from the hip in political mode and can be a liability.
Nasty, victorian values.
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > Does Galloway have any record in Peterborough? What is his campaign message going to be.
>
> >
>
> > Farage should tell him to sod off.
>
> >
>
> > Run Widdicombe instead.
>
>
>
> Widdecombe would be my choice, too. She's a sensible old Tory, she's not posh, she will appeal to senior voters, and she's got a personal fan base cause of her novels and Strictly.
>
>
>
> She won't say anything stupid and she has no skeletons in the wardrobe. She could win it.
>
> Is she not posh?
>
> Sounds posh to me, but I am NW England via Birmingham.
Not posh like Cameron but she got her father to pay for her to do two degrees, so her family must have had some reasonable resources for that.
Politics is just bonkers currently... trying to ignore it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Widdecombe
> Has Galloway ever even stepped foot in Peterborough?
>
> One has to change trains there for some Eastern destinations (or did we I was travelling around back in the day).
>
> So probably yes, but only for 15 mins.
In the disruption that followed the Hatfield rail crash, with speed restrictions across the network, I ended up spending too long on the platforms at Peterborough station one cold evening in early November, where I had the good fortune to see four simultaneous fireworks displays.
> I seem to remember that when she was a politician she often made mistakes, gaffes if you like, that ultimately undermined the team she represented. She pretty much shoots from the hip in political mode and can be a liability. <
______
Her wikipedia page shows she has some controversial and socially conservative views, born of her Catholicism, but she is at least consistent in that. She doesn't apologise. She abhors abortion AND she detests fox hunting.
I can see TBP's demographic warming to that. At least she says what she believes and stands by it, she's not given to triangulation and platitudes. She's got enough anti-politician in her to suit the age of anti-politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Widdecombe
Personally, I'm not a fan, but I don't live or vote in Peterborough.
> First!
Peterborough will be the second 2019 by-election!
“But looking from the outside the important point about the Scott case seems to be that there was indeed a confidential way in which she could report the fraud to the SRA at the time she became involved but she chose not to take that route. That does seem to be quite damning.”
Yes. That is her second failing. Her first was in not telling the partners to sod off before resigning the first time a partner asked her to commit a fraud. That takes courage - but it is an essential component of integrity.
And thank you for your kind comments on my article.
Labour
Conservatives
Liberal Democrat
Green
SDP
UKIP
Monster Raving Loony
They have all managed to organise themselves. It's not like the by-election is much of a surprise. Why is it that Farage's publicity vehicles are always rubbish at the organisational side of fighting elections? There was all that farce of the constituency he would contest in 2015.
> Nope. He only did well in Bradford because of the huge Muslim vote - 50%+. In Peterborough the Muslim vote is 6% or so.
>
> He would struggle to get more than 10%.
I think he could do better than that: he's won a wide variety of seats historically
Well Labour has an environment policy, right? https://www.labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/The-Green-Transformation-.pdf and https://www.labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Achieving-6025-by-2030-final-version.pdf . Maybe there's a more up to date document or detailed document somewhere, I'm not sure. I don't know if that meets your standards for detail, but it seems pretty standard for an opposition party in midterm. Do you have some reference of work done by a more credible opposition party in the past to describe what you're looking for?
> > @The_Taxman said:
>
> > I seem to remember that when she was a politician she often made mistakes, gaffes if you like, that ultimately undermined the team she represented. She pretty much shoots from the hip in political mode and can be a liability. <
>
> ______
>
> Her wikipedia page shows she has some controversial and socially conservative views, born of her Catholicism, but she is at least consistent in that. She doesn't apologise. She abhors abortion AND she detests fox hunting.
>
> I can see TBP's demographic warming to that. At least she says what she believes and stands by it, she's not given to triangulation and platitudes. She's got enough anti-politician in her to suit the age of anti-politics.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Widdecombe
>
> Personally, I'm not a fan, but I don't live or vote in Peterborough.
I am not a fan either! When she mooted running for the Tory leadership in 2001 I laughed but knew if she won it she would be trounced in any GE by an even greater margin than 1997 or 2001. What baffles me about her move to the Brexit Party is people of her ilk have the whip hand at the moment in the Tories. Maybe it is the fact she has been deprived of a peerage that has propelled her into the open arms of Farage! I doubt Widdicombe will be the candidate in Peterborough for the same reasons Farage is not standing: She is a candidate in the European elections and there is no party infrastructure in Peterborough.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1123706249835626500
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > Nope. He only did well in Bradford because of the huge Muslim vote - 50%+. In Peterborough the Muslim vote is 6% or so.
> >
> > He would struggle to get more than 10%.
>
> I think he could do better than that: he's won a wide variety of seats historically
Not true. Since leaving Labour, he has won Bethnal Green and Bradford West, quite possibly the two seats with the highest proportion of Muslim voters in the UK. He knows his market.
Peterborough is entirely different. TBP would be bonkers to choose him.
Paradoxically, if he stands as an indy, he would likely split the leftwing vote, and might give Farage's party an even better chance.
> Problem with Galloway is that he has a track record of winning by-elections
No - he has won one. And not as an independent - and the Bradford seat was a very particular set of circumstances that he exploited very cleverly.
That doesn't apply to the Peterborough seat for reasons pointed out below
> I do get a bit of a sense that this Williamson affair could end up being another Westland. There seems to be as much focus on the Huawei decision as on the leak, much of it negative.
Lets hope Corbyn does not do a Kinnock and let the PM off the ropes!
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > Nope. He only did well in Bradford because of the huge Muslim vote - 50%+. In Peterborough the Muslim vote is 6% or so.
> >
> > He would struggle to get more than 10%.
>
> I think he could do better than that: he's won a wide variety of seats historically
Er, has he? If you ignore the Glasgow seat that anyone with a red rosette would have won, all he's won is two seats with very large Muslim populations.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1123635612656050176
> I do get a bit of a sense that this Williamson affair could end up being another Westland. There seems to be as much focus on the Huawei decision as on the leak, much of it negative.
BBC reporting there were other concerns with Williamson that the leak inquiry showed up. Mordaunt looks a significant upgrade.
Would be worst Tory losses in local elections since 1996 but still better than Tory losses in 1995 when on the same cycle they lost over 2000 seats
> https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1123705268318154753
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1123706249835626500
Is there anything Theresa May has done, as prime minister, that she WON'T live to regret? She's a walking catastrophe, in kitten heels. Everything she touches turns to merde.
"Two days after Joseph R. Biden Jr. defined his 2020 campaign as a mission to take back blue-collar voters, his close relationship with unions was already getting under the skin of President Trump, as the two men tussle over labor support in crucial Midwestern swing states.
With a blizzard of nearly 60 tweets and retweets on Wednesday, Mr. Trump attacked the leadership of a national firefighters’ union after it formally endorsed Mr. Biden, calling it “this dues sucking union,’’ and the president retweeted dozens of individuals claiming to be firefighters who support him.
It seemed a clear sign that Mr. Trump, who made inroads with rank-and-file union voters in 2016, especially in the industrial Midwest, was anxious about their loyalty. His Twitter posts — like an earlier attack on a United Autoworkers local president in Ohio — attempted to set rank-and-file union members against union leadership.
“Clearly he’s very worried about Joe Biden and the unions,’’ said Rick Bloomingdale, president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO"
More reasons to put age worry aside and make Biden the nominee.
> Shipman not a happy bunny
>
> https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1123635612656050176
I pick up the phone from time to time.
You leak national security information.
He/she may be prosecuted etcetc
> Peston predicts 405 to 800 Tory losses tomorrow based on academic research
lol. 'Journalist makes prediction so vague it cannot fail to come sort of true "based on academic research"'
Or is May simply embarrassed at the revelation that she went against the advice of the Ministers and officials with the most direct knowledge and expertise in security and intelligence matters?
It’s not as if May has a great record at listening to advice from those with expertise.
Farage needs to let George do his own thing, and come up with a well-known but clean local candidate, on a platform of “f... the politicians”. Maybe a local businessman.
A bit like Claire Fox and the IRA, there’ll be stuff in his back story which appals the BP base, and I don’t see him attracting many WWC Lab leavers. Farage-era UKIP worked because it attracted plenty of nasty right wingers without itself advancing too many such policies. If he moves too far to convince people BP is as much left-wing as right, a significant wedge will
Go back to Batten and co.
And although it doesn’t matter for the Euros, I suspect some sort of common policy platform between the leader and its would-be only MP would be needed ahead of a Westminster by-election. There’d also be a bust-up between two massive egos soon enough.
Farage is far better off bringing in the Widdecombes of this world IMO - delight his base and persuading wavering Brexiteer Tories the water’s OK.
> Shipman not a happy bunny
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1123635612656050176
>
>
>
> Is what Williamson is alleged to have leaked an official secret or intelligence in any case? Wasn’t it all about which Ministers opposed May’s decision? This is bog standard stuff which seems to fill the papers every day.
>
> Or is May simply embarrassed at the revelation that she went against the advice of the Ministers and officials with the most direct knowledge and expertise in security and intelligence matters?
>
> It’s not as if May has a great record at listening to advice from those with expertise.
Apparently this is the first ever leak from the National Security Council. Quite why it's ok for them to leak from Cabinet is beyond me.
Galloway is surely way too much trouble on that score.
Which headlines exactly has Williamson turned around?
TIMES: Williamson sacked by May over Huawei leak
EXPRESS: Sacked for treachery
I: Williamson sacked as Defence Secretary
MAIL: You’re Fired....I didn’t do it!
GUARDIAN: May tells defence secretary: you leaked, you are fired
METRO: Go Huawei and shut up
FT: May fires Williamson for Huawei leak from intelligence committee
MIRROR: Sacked leak minister faces Jail
TELEGRAPH: You’ve got the wrong man, Williamson tells May
> https://twitter.com/ChristianJMay/status/1123709856660295680
I make of that the obvious fact that every sentient Briton hates all politicians, right now, and would gladly see them ALL fired.
I don't read it as a particular abhorrence for Williamson.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1123712347367931906
https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/03/21/public-sees-an-america-in-decline-on-many-fronts/
Fascinating look into how US sees its future.
I'd make Brexit 3-to-2 to win this, given a generic candidate.
@isam - what's your guesstimate of the right odds?
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > > @The_Taxman said:
> >
> > > I seem to remember that when she was a politician she often made mistakes, gaffes if you like, that ultimately undermined the team she represented. She pretty much shoots from the hip in political mode and can be a liability. <
> >
> > ______
> >
> > Her wikipedia page shows she has some controversial and socially conservative views, born of her Catholicism, but she is at least consistent in that. She doesn't apologise. She abhors abortion AND she detests fox hunting.
> >
> > I can see TBP's demographic warming to that. At least she says what she believes and stands by it, she's not given to triangulation and platitudes. She's got enough anti-politician in her to suit the age of anti-politics.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Widdecombe
> >
> > Personally, I'm not a fan, but I don't live or vote in Peterborough.
>
> I am not a fan either! When she mooted running for the Tory leadership in 2001 I laughed but knew if she won it she would be trounced in any GE by an even greater margin than 1997 or 2001. What baffles me about her move to the Brexit Party is people of her ilk have the whip hand at the moment in the Tories. Maybe it is the fact she has been deprived of a peerage that has propelled her into the open arms of Farage! I doubt Widdicombe will be the candidate in Peterborough for the same reasons Farage is not standing: She is a candidate in the European elections and there is no party infrastructure in Peterborough.
Widdecombe got a big personal vote in Maidstone and had she won the leadership in 2001 would have been a heavy hitter and could have got under Blair's skin
Don’t newspapers and politicians not realise that everything electronic is monitored, and use old fashioned clandestine meetings and drops any more?
Brexit Party need a candidate that's high profile but completely out of the political scene...
> Isn’t Penny Mordaunt one of those Brexiteers who lied about Turkey’s accession during the referendum campaign? Why does everyone rate her? <
______
Because she seems personable and approachable, she's got a quite impressive backstory, she speaks human, and is clearly intelligent, if not a genius.
More importantly, the meagre alternatives are a querulous, anti-Semitic old Trotskyite, or..... someone in the Tory party. May the saints preserve us.
I can understand why he doesn't want to appear again.....
> Isn’t Penny Mordaunt one of those Brexiteers who lied about Turkey’s accession during the referendum campaign? Why does everyone rate her?
Yes she is and lying is de rigueur these days. She also used the word cock which apparently showed a sense of humour. Personally I think she's hopeless
> Nige sees a threat:
>
> https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1123712347367931906
>
>
>
> I don't get comments like this. If a politician goes out of their way to draw attention to a person on the opposing side, it's not going to be because they think that person's really good. People don't talk about their opponents' strengths.
I think there is occasionally a sitution wherein politicians focus in on a particular person on the opposing side because they think they are a political threat and they want to try to undermine them now before that happens. But I think it happens a lot less than people suggest - you see it all the time 'they attack x because they fear x' - when most of the time I'd think if someone highlights an opponent and says they are crap it is because they think they are crap.> @Cyclefree said:
> Isn’t Penny Mordaunt one of those Brexiteers who lied about Turkey’s accession during the referendum campaign? Why does everyone rate her?
Honestly I thought she was one of the ones who had flounced out of the Cabinet already.> @Thayer5 said:
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/ChristianJMay/status/1123709856660295680
>
> I make of that the obvious fact that every sentient Briton hates all politicians, right now, and would gladly see them ALL fired.
>
> I don't read it as a particular abhorrence for Williamson.
I would agree with that. Wonks like us may be more aware of details which lead to disdain for him, but for most normal people 'X is sacked' is a good story in its own right regardless of who it is.
> https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1123705268318154753
>
> Which headlines exactly has Williamson turned around?
>
> TIMES: Williamson sacked by May over Huawei leak
> EXPRESS: Sacked for treachery
> I: Williamson sacked as Defence Secretary
> MAIL: You’re Fired....I didn’t do it!
> GUARDIAN: May tells defence secretary: you leaked, you are fired
> METRO: Go Huawei and shut up
> FT: May fires Williamson for Huawei leak from intelligence committee
> MIRROR: Sacked leak minister faces Jail
> TELEGRAPH: You’ve got the wrong man, Williamson tells May
I'm also not sure what precedentis are supposed to have been set. Whether May was right he was the likely culprit if she has been presented with reasonable grounds to suppose he was it was a reasonable action.
> Isn’t Penny Mordaunt one of those Brexiteers who lied about Turkey’s accession during the referendum campaign? Why does everyone rate her?
I think she looks OK
> https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1123688199136657408
>
>
>
> Ah, so he was known to have spent 11 minutes on the phone to the Telegraph’s office, on the same day that a meeting he attended got leaked to that same newspaper. But he had nothing to do with it. Right.
In itself, enough for the Prime Minister to rightly have her trust in the guy undermined to the point where he's out. Ironically, if it had been a Brexit-related leak, she wouldn't have been strong enough to sack him for that. But national security? The rest of the Cabinet will at least rally round that decision.
> Peston predicts 405 to 800 Tory losses tomorrow based on academic research.
>
I'd make the same prediction, I would clearly make a great pundit.
> looking forward to the tories getting an absolute monstering tomorrow
What would count as a monstering? Fairly big losses 9 years into government would not be astounding, though of course it would be very bad for them regardless, so expectations management wise, how big is unusually big a loss?
> @brokenwheel said:
> Using the conversion rate of an EP poll, where the smaller pool of likely voters are more engaged than in a general or by-election, is a bit disingenuous. The latest yougov has TBP getting 30% of Leavers in its Westminster poll, so TBP only has a chance either in very heavily leave areas, or areas where the demographics mean that the extra voters who turn up in a general are less inclined to vote for one of the mainstream parties. Peterborough is not such a place.
Sure, but the Brexit Party (and the LibDems, Greens and ChUK) should do better at by-elections than at General Elections.
UKIP managed a string of impressive performances in the 2010 to 2015 period, against a more credible government. I might mention Eastleigh (+24%), South Shields (+24%), Wythenshawe (+14%), Newark (+22%), Heywood & Middleton (+36%).
I know you're keen to play the expectations management game, and I get that, but the Brexit Party should get at least 35%. And if I can get anything better than 3-2 at the bookies on them winning the seat, I will be piling on. Really, chances won't come much better than this.
> Nigel needs to keep away of the Gorgeous One this time.
>
> Brexit Party need a candidate that's high profile but completely out of the political scene...
Poor George, does no one want him anymore?
The one whose Twitter handle is already BrexitStewart? Who lost his seat to Fifi in May’s ill-advised 2017 election? Who then lost his gig as Davis’s chief of staff when DD quit? Who’s posted plenty of anti-cabinet and even pro-Farage stuff recently? Who’s deffo straight-talking in the Farage mould, but his fame doesn’t stretch beyond Fletton Parkway to compete with him nationally?
> Problem with Galloway is that he has a track record of winning by-elections. If he stands, he will build a local party machine very quickly, boost the members ego's and, win. Because once elected, he won't give a monkeys for them, and they will be (Un)lucky if they ever see him again except on TV. It's his game plan, perfected several times
Eventually game plans stop working.
> looking forward to the tories getting an absolute monstering tomorrow
Have you got a bottle or three ready to celebrate with?
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/ChristianJMay/status/1123709856660295680
>
> I make of that the obvious fact that every sentient Briton hates all politicians, right now, and would gladly see them ALL fired.
>
> I don't read it as a particular abhorrence for Williamson.
No, I think there was a particular abhorrence for this one amongst those of us that follow these things, and I imagine that would include most of the said audience.
For a start, he had no apparent qualifications for the position. His appointment made sense only in terms of bolstering the PM's fragile position. He also seemed to be pretty unpopular amongst colleagues. That's maybe not a bad thing in a Whip, but a Defence Secretary?
Finally and perhaps most important, he appeared to be not up to the job, and this showed long before the current fiasco.
> > @Floater said:
> > looking forward to the tories getting an absolute monstering tomorrow
>
> What would count as a monstering? Fairly big losses 9 years into government would not be astounding, though of course it would be very bad for them regardless, so expectations management wise, how big is unusually big a loss?
In 1995 the Tories lost 2000 seats, unquestionably a big loss. In 1999 Labour lost 1,161 seats unquestionably a big loss.
The Tories are unlikely to do that badly but could lose 800 seats, equivalent to the losses Labour suffered in 2003
I honestly had no idea there were elections on! Do they apply to London?
...Right?
> > @Floater said:
> > looking forward to the tories getting an absolute monstering tomorrow
>
> Have you got a bottle or three ready to celebrate with?
What are the benchmarks? I'd say 500 losses not too bad, 800 would be painful but..... Anything outside that range would be a big surprise.
> https://twitter.com/notcapnamerica/status/1123663572343586816
>
>
>
> I can understand why he doesn't want to appear again.....
Senator Harris will use that exchange in her Primary ads, and I think it will be effective.
Changing gears for a second, Biden is clear number one, but if Harris can mobilise the African American vote in the same way Obama did, she stands a good chance.
The one I can't see with a clear path to the nomination is Sanders: simply, other than Tulsi Gabbard, who else's delegates would be able to rely on? (He certainly won't get many superdelegate votes.)
So unless he has a storming performance, and wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, then he's likely to trail the entire race with little chance of getting it back in a contested convention.
> https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1123688199136657408
>
>
>
> Ah, so he was known to have spent 11 minutes on the phone to the Telegraph’s office, on the same day that a meeting he attended got leaked to that same newspaper. But he had nothing to do with it. Right.
>
>
> As unlikely as it is, there's a small part of me holding out hope that May fired the wrong guy, because it would be so, so funny.
>
> Maybe I make the wrong assumption, when I think that the PM would have had a whole bunch of spooks clearly visible for the past few days, looking into how the meeting got leaked to a newspaper. If the guy who was caught on the phone to the same newspaper was evasive about it, I don’t have much sympathy for him when he gets fired.
>
> Don’t newspapers and politicians not realise that everything electronic is monitored, and use old fashioned clandestine meetings and drops any more?
>
> You must be right, May wouldn't fired him unless she was completely, 100% certain, right? Surely. Yeah, she wouldn't have, I'm sure she... I mean, unless... but, no, no she wouldn't. Even if-- no, it's not worth thinking about. It was definitely him, end of story.
>
> ...Right?
Just a thought, but did anyone check where Grayling was at the time?
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > Peston predicts 405 to 800 Tory losses tomorrow based on academic research.
>
> >
>
>
>
> I'd make the same prediction, I would clearly make a great pundit.
>
>
> I honestly had no idea there were elections on! Do they apply to London?
That is because there are no local elections in London tomorrow, they were last year
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > Peston predicts 405 to 800 Tory losses tomorrow based on academic research.
>
> >
>
>
>
> I'd make the same prediction, I would clearly make a great pundit.
>
>
> I honestly had no idea there were elections on! Do they apply to London?
No
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Lots of rural areas, so lots of seats and Councils for the Tories to lose. I'm sure it will be bad for them, as although BP aren't standing much (if at all?) I would expect a lot of Tories to stay at home and they start with the largest number of seats by far and they've been in government for nearly a decade.
Just a question of how bad it will get. The double whammy of getting hammered in the Euros soon will probably be tough - Corbyn for instance managed to manage expectations very well for his first locals, but with everything going on right now even a decent performance from the Tories, not losing all that many, will contribute to the impression they are in freefall.
Which is not unreasonable frankly.
> This is so obvious I guess it’s already been suggested and probably dismissed, but is Stewart Jackson temptable into BP?
>
> The one whose Twitter handle is already BrexitStewart? Who lost his seat to Fifi in May’s ill-advised 2017 election? Who then lost his gig as Davis’s chief of staff when DD quit? Who’s posted plenty of anti-cabinet and even pro-Farage stuff recently? Who’s deffo straight-talking in the Farage mould, but his fame doesn’t stretch beyond Fletton Parkway to compete with him nationally?
And yet, look who he lost to last time out......
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7eJUFfzRFg
She can also be quite funny:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hvLcYUXBBuc
And self-deprecating, willing to use her profile as MP for a good local cause:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jTMDuHxQHlo
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > looking forward to the tories getting an absolute monstering tomorrow
> >
> > What would count as a monstering? Fairly big losses 9 years into government would not be astounding, though of course it would be very bad for them regardless, so expectations management wise, how big is unusually big a loss?
>
> In 1995 the Tories lost 2000 seats, unquestionably a big loss. In 1999 Labour lost 1,161 seats unquestionably a big loss.
>
> The Tories are unlikely to do that badly but could lose 800 seats, equivalent to the losses Labour suffered in 2003
I'll go for 1000 lost seats for Con.
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1123688199136657408
> >
> >
> >
> > Ah, so he was known to have spent 11 minutes on the phone to the Telegraph’s office, on the same day that a meeting he attended got leaked to that same newspaper. But he had nothing to do with it. Right.
> >
> >
> > As unlikely as it is, there's a small part of me holding out hope that May fired the wrong guy, because it would be so, so funny.
> >
> > Maybe I make the wrong assumption, when I think that the PM would have had a whole bunch of spooks clearly visible for the past few days, looking into how the meeting got leaked to a newspaper. If the guy who was caught on the phone to the same newspaper was evasive about it, I don’t have much sympathy for him when he gets fired.
> >
> > Don’t newspapers and politicians not realise that everything electronic is monitored, and use old fashioned clandestine meetings and drops any more?
> >
> > You must be right, May wouldn't fired him unless she was completely, 100% certain, right? Surely. Yeah, she wouldn't have, I'm sure she... I mean, unless... but, no, no she wouldn't. Even if-- no, it's not worth thinking about. It was definitely him, end of story.
> >
> > ...Right?
>
> Just a thought, but did anyone check where Grayling was at the time?
Couldn't have been him. He'd have dialled 3 wrong numbers then dropped his phone in the loo.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @Floater said:
> > > > looking forward to the tories getting an absolute monstering tomorrow
> > >
> > > What would count as a monstering? Fairly big losses 9 years into government would not be astounding, though of course it would be very bad for them regardless, so expectations management wise, how big is unusually big a loss?
> >
> > In 1995 the Tories lost 2000 seats, unquestionably a big loss. In 1999 Labour lost 1,161 seats unquestionably a big loss.
> >
> > The Tories are unlikely to do that badly but could lose 800 seats, equivalent to the losses Labour suffered in 2003
>
> I'll go for 1000 lost seats for Con.
If the Brexit Party and UKIP were standing in 100% of the wards I would also put 1000 losses as possible. As it is they are only standing in 20% so I think the Tories will do a little better than their poll rating suggests and am going for 600 to 700 losses