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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomorrow at 1800 the Peterborough recall petition closes and t

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  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,014
    HYUFD said:

    Rubbish, Powys voted 53% Leave and the Brexit Party have every chance of winning Brecon if we are still in the EU by the date of any by election.


    I have also always claimed Boris will only take over once the Deal ultimately gets through
    53% - only 1% more than the UK average.
    You weren't one of the people expecting UKIP to get 100+ seats were you?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    That article mentions it’s from the Hate not Hope poll which is GB-wide so it’s just a subsample. However that poll had a hefty 5400 sample in total so the 600-odd sample in London might not be too bad.
    ok- but if the sampling has been conducted on a GB or UK basis , the subsamples may not be very meaningful despite being of a substantial size.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,048
    Whilst being pro-immigration at sensible levels I have some sympathy for the posters in this thread complaining about immigration policy, and think those criticising them are not listening or missing the point.

    Immigrants intending to settle here should integrate into UK society and be encouraged to do so - there should be absolutely nothing controversial about that. Not all immigrants will integrate but by the second generation the vast majority should have.

    The levels of immigration have been very high recently and undoubtedly that has changed society. Would the current levels have been expected to continue? Probably not, the financial crisis in Southern Europe, the new countries entering the EU and they Syria crisis were all big factors that would tail off naturally.

    Islam is clearly an issue, if an uncomfortable one. We should be unequivocal in supporting UK values of tolerance and respect for all in society, where fundamentalist religion of any persuasions crosses those lines it should be challenged. Religious schools (of all religions) should be phased out.

    We need immigration because of our demographics, it is helpful to our economy and health care system. It is also a natural result of an increasingly inter connected world.

    It is also interesting to note that a significant part of net migration increasing, is emigration decreasing. Fewer people wanting to leave for a different life suggests we are doing more right and the UK is a better place to live than we give ourselves credit for.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,398
    TOPPING said:

    If only everyone would fuck off back to the land of their birth, eh?
    Racist!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,398

    53% - only 1% more than the UK average.
    You weren't one of the people expecting UKIP to get 100+ seats were you?
    Equal to the Welsh average.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    TOPPING said:

    Yep every leaver I've ever spoken to who wants to control immigration is a huge fan of immigration. Who's to say what is the right level? Who's to say what the "needs of the country" are? You? In Warwickshire? What about the people who lived in your street before you arrived?

    But actually those who run the government have decided what the needs of the country are and those needs are for a healthy level of immigration.

    But by all means let's vote to leave the EU because that should help*.

    *It has not helped.
    There is no such thing as a "right" level but a control if wrong is still better than no control at all. Those running the country have decided nothing, they have simply abdicated responsibility. The country ran quite happily in the 90s with net immigration of just over 100k per annum hospitals, schools, housing could all happily cope.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Only if you can find a better one.
    or like many just abstain. The Mandelson lie that voters have nowhere else to go is the biggest cancer in the body politic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,411

    53% - only 1% more than the UK average.
    You weren't one of the people expecting UKIP to get 100+ seats were you?
    To be fair, Mid Wales elected Neil Hamilton as a UKIP member, although scraped in as the last List members. The Brecon & Radnor constituency seat was, though, the only seat retained by the LibDems.
    Make of that lot what you will.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Extinction Rebellion has released a statement following its meeting with John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, this morning. Sue Hayman, the shadow environment secretary, was also there, and the XR team also briefly met Jeremy Corbyn.

    Who is actually in charge of the Labour Party? Answers on a postcode....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095
    What's everyone's nightmare betting scenario for the US elections right now ?

    Nikki Hayley vs Kamala Harris with Nikki Hayley winning looks to be my worst.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314

    Extinction Rebellion has released a statement following its meeting with John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, this morning. Sue Hayman, the shadow environment secretary, was also there, and the XR team also briefly met Jeremy Corbyn.

    Who is actually in charge of the Labour Party? Answers on a postcode....

    Did they give them a primer on the D’Hont system?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    There is no such thing as a "right" level but a control if wrong is still better than no control at all. Those running the country have decided nothing, they have simply abdicated responsibility. The country ran quite happily in the 90s with net immigration of just over 100k per annum hospitals, schools, housing could all happily cope.
    Happily? Are you sure? Was it a golden age of the NHS - under the Cons? Tell @OldKingCole and @bigjohnowls about that but if that's your experience, then great.

    No we didn't have control over EU immigration and it was the slam dunk that the Remain campaign could never counter. But it turns out that in the 21st century the UK needs more immigration. Unemployment record low, wages growing, etc and all with record immigration while per capita GDP has also grown.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    New thread.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

    *Any other EU leader will do the job though.
    Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    To be fair, Mid Wales elected Neil Hamilton as a UKIP member, although scraped in as the last List members. The Brecon & Radnor constituency seat was, though, the only seat retained by the LibDems.
    Make of that lot what you will.

    I think it may be harder to reach the recall limit in B&R as the constituency is so big, and only fanatical LibDems are going to want to travel for hours to get to to one the recall signing places.

    I also am not sure that Davies' offence was particularly serious. I remember when the offence come to light, excitable LibDems were salivating unpleasantly on pb.com and saying he'd go prison like McShane. It was always clear that Chris Davies would get at most a fine.

    The LibDems would take the seat if they fielded the popular but very dim Kirsty Williams. But, she would presumably have to resign her Welsh Assembly seat, so I don't think she'd run.

    If there is a byelection, my guess is that the LibDems would be very slight favourites to take the seat, but they have been in long-term retreat in mid-Wales for some time, and they do not appear to have much of a clue why. They are down to just one Welsh Assembly seat.

    I suspect one way the LibDems would fail to take the seat is if they sent Layla Moran and her cohort of Oxford-voiced supporters to Wales to canvass. They are probably stupid enough to do that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    TOPPING said:

    Happily? Are you sure? Was it a golden age of the NHS - under the Cons? Tell @OldKingCole and @bigjohnowls about that but if that's your experience, then great.

    No we didn't have control over EU immigration and it was the slam dunk that the Remain campaign could never counter. But it turns out that in the 21st century the UK needs more immigration. Unemployment record low, wages growing, etc and all with record immigration while per capita GDP has also grown.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
    yes happily. The 90s had its problems but immigr4ation wasnt seen to be one of them.

    On the other hand does the sudden quoting of positive statistics showing the Osbornite Armageddon lie was just that is to be welcomed.
  • Charles said:

    Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective
    The only reason I can see is that the PM wants No Deal to not be credible - so MPs have to back her deal in the end. I believe she is so focussed on winning that she has lost perspective. She is Cersei Lannister
This discussion has been closed.