A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections
No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.
If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too
Powys voted 53% Leave
I could see BP winning Brecon as well. At the moment, it seems to form a home for two types (1) those genuinely wanting a harder form of Brexit and (2) those wanting to give both political parties a kick up the backside (and who are not virulently pro-Remain). I suspect in both those seats, especially given voter fragmentation, there would be enough of (1) + (2) combine to push BP over the line.
There is no way a Farage-led party will win Brecon & Radnor.
I have typed and retyped about five paragraphs trying to explain this but... no. Go there. Meet the people. They are not voting Farage any time in the next 100 years. He would get some votes in the poorer parts of Llandod and one or two of the more struggling farmers and that is it.
Indeed so - the Brexit Party is far too vulgar for Brecon & Radnor.
It's just more ill-informed breathless hype from HY. If there was anything in his wild predictions Boris would be several years into office as PM by now.
Rubbish, Powys voted 53% Leave and the Brexit Party have every chance of winning Brecon if we are still in the EU by the date of any by election.
I have also always claimed Boris will only take over once the Deal ultimately gets through
53% - only 1% more than the UK average. You weren't one of the people expecting UKIP to get 100+ seats were you?
That article mentions it’s from the Hate not Hope poll which is GB-wide so it’s just a subsample. However that poll had a hefty 5400 sample in total so the 600-odd sample in London might not be too bad.
ok- but if the sampling has been conducted on a GB or UK basis , the subsamples may not be very meaningful despite being of a substantial size.
Whilst being pro-immigration at sensible levels I have some sympathy for the posters in this thread complaining about immigration policy, and think those criticising them are not listening or missing the point.
Immigrants intending to settle here should integrate into UK society and be encouraged to do so - there should be absolutely nothing controversial about that. Not all immigrants will integrate but by the second generation the vast majority should have.
The levels of immigration have been very high recently and undoubtedly that has changed society. Would the current levels have been expected to continue? Probably not, the financial crisis in Southern Europe, the new countries entering the EU and they Syria crisis were all big factors that would tail off naturally.
Islam is clearly an issue, if an uncomfortable one. We should be unequivocal in supporting UK values of tolerance and respect for all in society, where fundamentalist religion of any persuasions crosses those lines it should be challenged. Religious schools (of all religions) should be phased out.
We need immigration because of our demographics, it is helpful to our economy and health care system. It is also a natural result of an increasingly inter connected world.
It is also interesting to note that a significant part of net migration increasing, is emigration decreasing. Fewer people wanting to leave for a different life suggests we are doing more right and the UK is a better place to live than we give ourselves credit for.
It might have worked before the Berlin wall fell and Communism collapsed
It is working. Look at the rate of economic growth in those countries.
It might have been acceptable to the British public, then
Why do you think the Leave campaign posters didn't show people from eastern Europe on them?
Don’t know, but the reason we had a referendum, then voted to leave, was mass immigration of cheap labour from poor countries
Not for those such as Richard Tyndall it wasn't. And what a bunch of incompetents to vote to reduce immigration from one section of the planet when, Maginot Line-like, simply others pop up from other sections of the planet with a(n entirely, absolutely foreseeable) result of immigration not changing one damn bit.
"incompetents"
like the people who launched mass immigration with no thought to how it might play out, built no infrastructure to accommodate 4 million extra people, had no concept of the social cohesion in the communities most impacted and then called a referendum they lost to a bus.
If only everyone would fuck off back to the land of their birth, eh?
A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections
No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.
If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too
Powys voted 53% Leave
I could see BP winning Brecon as well. At the moment, it seems to form a home for two types (1) those genuinely wanting a harder form of Brexit and (2) those wanting to give both political parties a kick up the backside (and who are not virulently pro-Remain). I suspect in both those seats, especially given voter fragmentation, there would be enough of (1) + (2) combine to push BP over the line.
There is no way a Farage-led party will win Brecon & Radnor.
I have typed and retyped about five paragraphs trying to explain this but... no. Go there. Meet the people. They are not voting Farage any time in the next 100 years. He would get some votes in the poorer parts of Llandod and one or two of the more struggling farmers and that is it.
Indeed so - the Brexit Party is far too vulgar for Brecon & Radnor.
It's just more ill-informed breathless hype from HY. If there was anything in his wild predictions Boris would be several years into office as PM by now.
Rubbish, Powys voted 53% Leave and the Brexit Party have every chance of winning Brecon if we are still in the EU by the date of any by election.
I have also always claimed Boris will only take over once the Deal ultimately gets through
53% - only 1% more than the UK average. You weren't one of the people expecting UKIP to get 100+ seats were you?
It might have worked before the Berlin wall fell and Communism collapsed
It is working. Look at the rate of economic growth in those countries.
It might have been acceptable to the British public, then
Why do you think the Leave campaign posters didn't show people from eastern Europe on them?
Don’t know, but the reason we had a referendum, then voted to leave, was mass immigration of cheap labour from poor countries
Not for those such as Richard Tyndall it wasn't. And what a bunch of incompetents to vote to reduce immigration from one section of the planet when, Maginot Line-like, simply others pop up from other sections of the planet with a(n entirely, absolutely foreseeable) result of immigration not changing one damn bit.
"incompetents"
like the people who lau lost to a bus.
If only everyone would fuck off back to the land of their birth, eh?
the stupidity of why you lost in a sentence.
Like most leavers I am happy with some let require petulence every time the issue is raised.
Yep every leaver I've ever spoken to who wants to control immigration is a huge fan of immigration. Who's to say what is the right level? Who's to say what the "needs of the country" are? You? In Warwickshire? What about the people who lived in your street before you arrived?
But actually those who run the government have decided what the needs of the country are and those needs are for a healthy level of immigration.
But by all means let's vote to leave the EU because that should help*.
*It has not helped.
There is no such thing as a "right" level but a control if wrong is still better than no control at all. Those running the country have decided nothing, they have simply abdicated responsibility. The country ran quite happily in the 90s with net immigration of just over 100k per annum hospitals, schools, housing could all happily cope.
A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections
No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.
If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too
Powys voted 53% Leave
I could see BP winning Brecon as well. At the moment, it seems to form a home for two types (1) those genuinely wanting a harder form of Brexit and (2) those wanting to give both political parties a kick up the backside (and who are not virulently pro-Remain). I suspect in both those seats, especially given voter fragmentation, there would be enough of (1) + (2) combine to push BP over the line.
There is no way a Farage-led party will win Brecon & Radnor.
I have typed and retyped about five paragraphs trying to explain this but... no. Go there. Meet the people. They are not voting Farage any time in the next 100 years. He would get some votes in the poorer parts of Llandod and one or two of the more struggling farmers and that is it.
Indeed so - the Brexit Party is far too vulgar for Brecon & Radnor.
It's just more ill-informed breathless hype from HY. If there was anything in his wild predictions Boris would be several years into office as PM by now.
Rubbish, Powys voted 53% Leave and the Brexit Party have every chance of winning Brecon if we are still in the EU by the date of any by election.
I have also always claimed Boris will only take over once the Deal ultimately gets through
53% - only 1% more than the UK average. You weren't one of the people expecting UKIP to get 100+ seats were you?
To be fair, Mid Wales elected Neil Hamilton as a UKIP member, although scraped in as the last List members. The Brecon & Radnor constituency seat was, though, the only seat retained by the LibDems. Make of that lot what you will.
Extinction Rebellion has released a statement following its meeting with John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, this morning. Sue Hayman, the shadow environment secretary, was also there, and the XR team also briefly met Jeremy Corbyn.
Who is actually in charge of the Labour Party? Answers on a postcode....
Extinction Rebellion has released a statement following its meeting with John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, this morning. Sue Hayman, the shadow environment secretary, was also there, and the XR team also briefly met Jeremy Corbyn.
Who is actually in charge of the Labour Party? Answers on a postcode....
It might have worked before the Berlin wall fell and Communism collapsed
It is working. Look at the rate of economic growth in those countries.
It might have been acceptable to the British public, then
Why hem?
Dtries
N
"incompetents"
like the people who lau lost to a bus.
If only everyone would fuck off back to the land of their birth, eh?
the stupidity of why you lost in a sentence.
Like most leavers I am happy with some let require petulence every time the issue is raised.
Yep every leaver I've ever spoken to who wants to control immigration is a huge fan of immigration. Who's to say what is the right level? Who's to say what the "needs of the country" are? You? In Warwickshire? What about the people who lived in your street before you arrived?
But actually those who run the government have decided what the needs of the country are and those needs are for a healthy level of immigration.
But by all means let's vote to leave the EU because that should help*.
*It has not helped.
There is no such thing as a "right" level but a control if wrong is still better than no control at all. Those running the country have decided nothing, they have simply abdicated responsibility. The country ran quite happily in the 90s with net immigration of just over 100k per annum hospitals, schools, housing could all happily cope.
Happily? Are you sure? Was it a golden age of the NHS - under the Cons? Tell @OldKingCole and @bigjohnowls about that but if that's your experience, then great.
No we didn't have control over EU immigration and it was the slam dunk that the Remain campaign could never counter. But it turns out that in the 21st century the UK needs more immigration. Unemployment record low, wages growing, etc and all with record immigration while per capita GDP has also grown.
Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.
It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."
*Any other EU leader will do the job though.
Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective
To be fair, Mid Wales elected Neil Hamilton as a UKIP member, although scraped in as the last List members. The Brecon & Radnor constituency seat was, though, the only seat retained by the LibDems. Make of that lot what you will.
I think it may be harder to reach the recall limit in B&R as the constituency is so big, and only fanatical LibDems are going to want to travel for hours to get to to one the recall signing places.
I also am not sure that Davies' offence was particularly serious. I remember when the offence come to light, excitable LibDems were salivating unpleasantly on pb.com and saying he'd go prison like McShane. It was always clear that Chris Davies would get at most a fine.
The LibDems would take the seat if they fielded the popular but very dim Kirsty Williams. But, she would presumably have to resign her Welsh Assembly seat, so I don't think she'd run.
If there is a byelection, my guess is that the LibDems would be very slight favourites to take the seat, but they have been in long-term retreat in mid-Wales for some time, and they do not appear to have much of a clue why. They are down to just one Welsh Assembly seat.
I suspect one way the LibDems would fail to take the seat is if they sent Layla Moran and her cohort of Oxford-voiced supporters to Wales to canvass. They are probably stupid enough to do that.
It might have worked before the Berlin wall fell and Communism collapsed
It is working. Look at the rate of economic growth in those countries.
It might have been acceptable to the British public, then
Why hem?
Dtries
N
"incompetents"
like the people who lau lost to a bus.
If only everyone would fuck off back to the land of their birth, eh?
the stupidity of why you lost in a sentence.
Like most leavers I am happy with some let require petulence every time the issue is raised.
Yep every leaver I've ever spoken to who wants to control immigration is a huge fan of immigration. Who's to say what is the right level? Who's to say what the "needs of the country" are? You? In Warwickshire? What about the people who lived in your street before you arrived?
But actually those who run the government have decided what the needs of the country are and those needs are for a healthy level of immigration.
But by all means let's vote to leave the EU because that should help*.
*It has not helped.
There is no such thing as a "right" level but a control if wrong is still better than no control at all. Those running the country have decided nothing, they have simply abdicated responsibility. The country ran quite happily in the 90s with net immigration of just over 100k per annum hospitals, schools, housing could all happily cope.
Happily? Are you sure? Was it a golden age of the NHS - under the Cons? Tell @OldKingCole and @bigjohnowls about that but if that's your experience, then great.
No we didn't have control over EU immigration and it was the slam dunk that the Remain campaign could never counter. But it turns out that in the 21st century the UK needs more immigration. Unemployment record low, wages growing, etc and all with record immigration while per capita GDP has also grown.
Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.
It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."
*Any other EU leader will do the job though.
Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective
The only reason I can see is that the PM wants No Deal to not be credible - so MPs have to back her deal in the end. I believe she is so focussed on winning that she has lost perspective. She is Cersei Lannister
Comments
You weren't one of the people expecting UKIP to get 100+ seats were you?
Immigrants intending to settle here should integrate into UK society and be encouraged to do so - there should be absolutely nothing controversial about that. Not all immigrants will integrate but by the second generation the vast majority should have.
The levels of immigration have been very high recently and undoubtedly that has changed society. Would the current levels have been expected to continue? Probably not, the financial crisis in Southern Europe, the new countries entering the EU and they Syria crisis were all big factors that would tail off naturally.
Islam is clearly an issue, if an uncomfortable one. We should be unequivocal in supporting UK values of tolerance and respect for all in society, where fundamentalist religion of any persuasions crosses those lines it should be challenged. Religious schools (of all religions) should be phased out.
We need immigration because of our demographics, it is helpful to our economy and health care system. It is also a natural result of an increasingly inter connected world.
It is also interesting to note that a significant part of net migration increasing, is emigration decreasing. Fewer people wanting to leave for a different life suggests we are doing more right and the UK is a better place to live than we give ourselves credit for.
Make of that lot what you will.
Who is actually in charge of the Labour Party? Answers on a postcode....
Nikki Hayley vs Kamala Harris with Nikki Hayley winning looks to be my worst.
No we didn't have control over EU immigration and it was the slam dunk that the Remain campaign could never counter. But it turns out that in the 21st century the UK needs more immigration. Unemployment record low, wages growing, etc and all with record immigration while per capita GDP has also grown.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
I also am not sure that Davies' offence was particularly serious. I remember when the offence come to light, excitable LibDems were salivating unpleasantly on pb.com and saying he'd go prison like McShane. It was always clear that Chris Davies would get at most a fine.
The LibDems would take the seat if they fielded the popular but very dim Kirsty Williams. But, she would presumably have to resign her Welsh Assembly seat, so I don't think she'd run.
If there is a byelection, my guess is that the LibDems would be very slight favourites to take the seat, but they have been in long-term retreat in mid-Wales for some time, and they do not appear to have much of a clue why. They are down to just one Welsh Assembly seat.
I suspect one way the LibDems would fail to take the seat is if they sent Layla Moran and her cohort of Oxford-voiced supporters to Wales to canvass. They are probably stupid enough to do that.
On the other hand does the sudden quoting of positive statistics showing the Osbornite Armageddon lie was just that is to be welcomed.